Rasmussen survey shows Obama can’t clear 50% even against Trump

posted at 12:55 pm on April 18, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Rasmussen follows up its head-to-head polling of last week for the presidential race to add one more late entrant to the list, Donald Trump.  As in the previous poll, Barack Obama can’t get a majority to support him for re-election, not even against a publicity stunt — although he does better against Trump than everyone else in the Republican field:

President Obama leads Donald Trump by 15 percentage points in a hypothetical 2012 match-up, but the president is unable to top the 50% level of support even against an opponent some are deriding as a joke.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that the president earns support from 49% of Likely Voters nationwide, while Trump attracts the vote from 34%. Given that choice, 12% would vote for some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

Trump does even worse among independents, but Obama doesn’t pick any of them up, either:

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 48% prefer Obama, 25% Trump, and 20% would opt for some other candidate.

This doesn’t exactly give a lot of life to the idea of The Donald as a GOP savior.  At 34%, Trump scored lower than most of the established Republican field in last week’s poll, with only Mitch Daniels, Jon Huntsman, and Herman Cain scoring lower.  Obama scored higher against Trump than any other Republican except Newt Gingrich, where he also got 49% of the vote.  Obama actually did worst against Mike Huckabee in Rasmussen’s survey, tying at 43%.

Independents in both surveys break for Obama, with a couple of exceptions.  Huckabee wins in that demographic 43/35, as does Ron Paul at a lower level (37/32).  Three other Republicans are within a point of Obama among indies: Mitch Daniels (32/32), Herman Cain (24/25), and Haley Barbour (33/32).   None of these numbers indicate a great deal of enthusiasm one way or the other among independents, but Trump’s 25/48 is the worst performance of all.

The enthusiasm for Trump won’t increase much as other Republicans challenge his record — and there is plenty to challenge, according to the Club for Growth.  The pro-free market organization blasted Trump today in a press release, calling him a liberal with a long track record of supporting tax hikes and universal government coverage for health care:

Trump: “We must have universal healthcare”: We must have universal healthcare. Our objective [should be] to make reforms for the moment and, longer term, to find an equivalent of the single-payer plan that is affordable, well-administered, and provides freedom of choice.  (Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.206-208 & 218)

Donald Trump favors a massive tax hike on Americans that would kill jobs and investment: I would impose a one-time, 14.25% tax on individuals and trusts with a net worth over $10 million. For individuals, net worth would be calculated minus the value of their principal residence. That would raise $5.7 trillion in new revenue, which we would use to pay off the entire national debt [and shore up the Social Security Trust Fund].
(Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.170-74)

Still, it says something about Obama’s standing that he can’t even clear 50% against a sideshow like Trump.


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As in the previous poll, Barack Obama can’t get a majority to support him for re-election, not even against a publicity stunt

maybe they could poll him against a ham sandwich next….

crosstabs.

ted c on April 18, 2011 at 12:58 PM

Rasmussen survey shows Obama can’t clear 50% even against Trump

If elections were held on April 16th every year, our government would be very different.

hicsuget on April 18, 2011 at 12:59 PM

Trump does even worse among independents, but Obama doesn’t pick any of them up, either

Imagine the dilemma of the Independant in this case. You mean to tell me that there is no one I can vote for where I won’t be mocked for it!!1!1

Kataklysmic on April 18, 2011 at 12:59 PM

the president is unable to top the 50% level of support even against an opponent some are deriding as a joke.

“[S]ome are deriding as a joke”? Surely you don’t mean to imply that there are some who take The Donald seriously? Who? People disappointed that Snooki decided not to run?

ChrisB on April 18, 2011 at 1:03 PM

Obama wins! COUNT IT!!

/crr6

Khun Joe on April 18, 2011 at 1:03 PM

“..Obama can’t clear 50% even against Trump..”

Thank you for the day-brightener, Ed. I saw that headline on Drudge and, for some reason, got all depressed because I did not look at it with your perspective.

Everybody needs to believe in something; I believe I’ll have another beer!

The War Planner on April 18, 2011 at 1:04 PM

Ed,

This is OT, but your link from Mitch Berg’s Green Room post gets a 404 error; and the post hasn’t appeared on HA’s front page. I don’t know if this is the problem, but the time listed on your post is in the future:

Comments have been closed on this post but the discussion continues here.

Ed Morrissey on April 18, 2011 at 3:51 PM

I dropped a note to the tips@hotairdotcom address, but to no avail.

hillbillyjim on April 18, 2011 at 1:04 PM

If elections were held on April 16th every year, our government would be very different.

hicsuget on April 18, 2011 at 12:59 PM

Would it? 47% of people pay $0 taxes.

angryed on April 18, 2011 at 1:06 PM

That’s some nice spin from Rass, but the bottom line is that Obama still wins easily.

And this is the most worrisome finding:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that the president earns support from 49% of Likely Voters nationwide, while Trump attracts the vote from 34%

34% of voters seem to think that this media-whoring areality-TV-star charlatan who was calling Bush the worst President ever just a few years ago and who ran a joke candidacy with the Reform Party in 2000 is somehow the right person to take on Obama.

Very worrisome indeed.

Good Lt on April 18, 2011 at 1:06 PM

People are panicking.

jake-the-goose on April 18, 2011 at 1:06 PM

Obama actually did worst against Mike Huckabee in Rasmussen’s survey, tying at 43%.

Independents in both surveys break for Obama, with a couple of exceptions. Huckabee wins in that demographic 43/35, as does Ron Paul at a lower level (37/32).

But Huck’s an EVANGELICAL SOUTHERN HICK who couldn’t possibly have any crossover appeal to independents!!!

What could we possibly be missing?!

Help me out here HotAir brethren!

This just does NOT COMPUTE with what I’ve been reading in these comments at all!

Is Rasmussen trying to choose our candidates for us?!

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

cschande on April 18, 2011 at 1:06 PM

Palin shows her hand a bit in the 2012 race with a revamp of her SARAHPAC website.

Very professional effort here.

Sarahpac 2.0 is now online.

http://www.sarahpac.com/

unseen on April 18, 2011 at 1:07 PM

Very understandable. Trump is the alternate liberal running against zero as a republican. All bases are covered for the dims.

dragondrop on April 18, 2011 at 1:08 PM

Yeah, well, non-citizens do tend to poll lower than eligible candidates!

abobo on April 18, 2011 at 1:13 PM

I’m telling you if Rasmussen polls Trump 34 against Obama at 49, the GOP has to, go for throttle up, because another four years of this President will reflect very very badly on the Republican party.

Speakup on April 18, 2011 at 1:17 PM

Obama actually did worst against Mike Huckabee in Rasmussen’s survey, tying at 43%.

That’s the scariest part of this whole survey.

JohnGalt23 on April 18, 2011 at 1:18 PM

Yeah, but he still wins.

And that’s the case with the rest of the GOP field, too.

Sure he’s vulnerable, but you can’t beat something with nothing.

Recruit to build in the House and win the Senate. If those candidate’s can drag GOP Candidate X into the White House on their coattails, great.

But don’t count on it.

Bruno Strozek on April 18, 2011 at 1:20 PM

Again, I think Trig Palin can beat this guy in 12

Sekhmet on April 18, 2011 at 1:20 PM

The day I hear that Trump has officially announced or NBC has cancelled next season’s “Apprentice” is the day I will believe that Trump is running for President.

Until then I will NOT believe it.

technopeasant on April 18, 2011 at 1:21 PM

Would it? 47% of people pay $0 taxes.

angryed on April 18, 2011 at 1:06 PM

It would–it wouldn’t have gotten to that point if people took taxes more into account when they vote.

Besides, it is not true that those 47% pay $0 taxes–they pay $0 Federal income taxes. They still pay payroll taxes, state sales taxes, property taxes, etc.

The “family of 4 that makes $50k/yr and pays $0 income taxes” you hear about still pays ~$3k in payroll taxes (that they know of), ~$2k in sales taxes, and ~$2k in state income taxes and property taxes. It’s not near as much as some of us pay, and it’s far less than their “fair share”, but it’s still enough to smart.

hicsuget on April 18, 2011 at 1:21 PM

Good Lt on April 18, 2011 at 1:06 PM

Not to mention the donations Trump has given to some of the most liberal politicians. The guy is a charlatan as you said.

fourdeucer on April 18, 2011 at 1:22 PM

maybe they could poll him against a ham sandwich next….

crosstabs.

ted c on April 18, 2011 at 12:58 PM

Ham sandwich vs. turd sandwich.

mizflame98 on April 18, 2011 at 1:22 PM

Since the club for growth headline quote was ported over – I’ll bring over my comment from there:

Funny how everyone on here believing in the omnipotent political powers and omniscient foresight of the Clintons (who are behind EVERYTHING!!!) have the nerve to call those seeking simple compliance with the constitution conspiracists and liberals.

Face it p******s – If you don’t adhere to the constitution and actively hinder those that do – then that makes YOU both a liberal AND a party to the CONSPIRACY against our Republic, one’s previously held economic opinions not withstanding.

abobo on April 18, 2011 at 1:23 PM

Let me know when Trump goes after Soros and Hillary.

Connie on April 18, 2011 at 1:27 PM

Let me know when Trump goes after Soros and Hillary.

Connie on April 18, 2011 at 1:27 PM

I’d settle for Soros, but yeah–good point.

Kataklysmic on April 18, 2011 at 1:33 PM

49%, gee how many people have been elected president with less than 50% of the vote. Would you believe more than a third of them including three people who did it twice. So hearing Obama is at 49% doesn’t do any thing for the debate. Trump is a nothing candidate who will do nothing but muddy the presidential election. He has a bigger ego and less qualifications to be president than the current holder of the office.

Tommy_G on April 18, 2011 at 1:34 PM

Let me know when Trump goes after Soros and Hillary.

Connie on April 18, 2011 at 1:27 PM

When has any politician gone after Soros?

sharrukin on April 18, 2011 at 1:35 PM

Let me know when Trump goes after Soros and Hillary.

Connie on April 18, 2011 at 1:27 PM

When has any politician gone after Soros?

sharrukin on April 18, 2011 at 1:35 PM

That’s easy:

GOP12: Huckabee says Obama is Soros’ puppet

….we may have elected Barack Obama to sing on stage. But the Phantom of the Opera might be George Soros, the angry billionaire who has more money than he does decency and fronts his organization MoveOn.org, which ought to be renamed turnback.ugh, since he seems obsessed with the other George, as in Bush, who isn’t even president anymore….. I hope that Soros will either move on or better yet, go broke. It would appear that Barack Obama is allowing the Soros agenda to be his, and it defies the kind of government he promised.

I’m sure there are plenty of quotes out there by the other 2012 candidates taking on Soros. Was your question supposed to be rhetorical?

cschande on April 18, 2011 at 1:47 PM

Trump is basically a shoot-from-the-lip loose cannon slightly to the right of Michael Bloomberg. He could do the eventual nominee a service by being an “attack dog” against Obama, but would be a disaster as a GOP nominee.

What did Trump hope to accomplish by telling Hannity that the war in Iraq wasted over a trillion dollars and strengthened Iran? Didn’t Obama say something similar in 2008, while McCain defended the (ultimately successful) “surge” strategy? Is Trump after the Code Pink vote (which Obama has in his pocket), and doesn’t he know that Code Pink doesn’t watch Hannity?

Voters to Trump: Be sure to engage brain before setting mouth in motion. Or more succinctly: YOU’RE FIRED!

Steve Z on April 18, 2011 at 1:47 PM

Trump is running a Ross Perot 1992 campaign, and is probably being funded by the same political party that Perot was.

Vashta.Nerada on April 18, 2011 at 1:49 PM

The Donald is running and there is no one that can stop him. The question is what kind of a President he will make. The weak tea spinning now in use to oppose Trump’s nomination is based upon his very intelligent Taxation and Tariff comments. Trump made those comments to show the scope of the disaster we face. The American people will hire Trump to do the fighting for them, and then fire him after victory is won, just like they did with George Patton.

jimw on April 18, 2011 at 1:50 PM

49%, gee how many people have been elected president with less than 50% of the vote. Would you believe more than a third of them including three people who did it twice. So hearing Obama is at 49% doesn’t do any thing for the debate. Trump is a nothing candidate who will do nothing but muddy the presidential election. He has a bigger ego and less qualifications to be president than the current holder of the office.

Tommy_G on April 18, 2011 at 1:34 PM

Excellent point, as in William Jefferson Clinton who was elected President with 43% of the vote, thanks to Ross Perot’s 19%.

Let Trump make an @$$ of himself NOW, so that he maybe gets 5% in the primaries, and hope that he returns to oblivion for the general election. The sooner the better.

Steve Z on April 18, 2011 at 1:55 PM

I find it comforting that 0bama is polling at less than 50%, but also scary that no one is beating him. That leaves me with the idea that more time has to pass and then some more candidates will declare and we can get on with the debates and primary.

For those of you who don’t like Sarah, this will warm the cockles of your heart.

Mirimichi on April 18, 2011 at 1:55 PM

As in the previous poll, Barack Obama can’t get a majority to support him for re-election

Ronald Reagan had 41 percent approval in 1983, the year before his 49-state landslide.

aengus on April 18, 2011 at 1:58 PM

Reading the Ralph Reed article denying his involvement with Trump brought a question to mind.

Will social conservatives support a guy who makes much of his income from gambling establishments?

This was a point made in the Reed story.

NextGen on April 18, 2011 at 1:58 PM

Trump is running a Ross Perot 1992 campaign, and is probably being funded by the same political party that Perot was.

Vashta.Nerada on April 18, 2011 at 1:49 PM

Got any evidence of this?

fossten on April 18, 2011 at 1:59 PM

Ronald Reagan had 41 percent approval in 1983, the year before his 49-state landslide.

aengus on April 18, 2011 at 1:58 PM

What was Carter’s approval rating in 1979?

fossten on April 18, 2011 at 2:00 PM

Got any evidence of this?

fossten on April 18, 2011 at 1:59 PM

Trump’s flirtation with a third-party/independent run says it all.

gryphon202 on April 18, 2011 at 2:05 PM

Trump does even worse among independents, but Obama doesn’t pick any of them up…..

Bingo.

Nominate Palin, and the result is exactly the same.

rickyricardo on April 18, 2011 at 2:06 PM

Got any evidence of this?

fossten on April 18, 2011 at 1:59 PM

Which part, the Trump part, or the backdoor funding that Perot received?

Vashta.Nerada on April 18, 2011 at 2:08 PM

What was Carter’s approval rating in 1979?

fossten on April 18, 2011 at 2:00 PM

April of Year 3

Obama- 45 (52 Term)
Bush -70
Clinton–48
Reagan- 42
Carter- 40

NextGen on April 18, 2011 at 2:09 PM

Mirimichi on April 18, 2011 at 1:55 PM

Why would a book that has already been debunked cause anti-palin people to have a warm heart?

I wouldn’t be surprised if Palin slaps a libel suit against the writer and publisher.

unseen on April 18, 2011 at 2:17 PM

The “family of 4 that makes $50k/yr and pays $0 income taxes” you hear about still pays ~$3k in payroll taxes (that they know of), ~$2k in sales taxes, and ~$2k in state income taxes and property taxes. It’s not near as much as some of us pay, and it’s far less than their “fair share”, but it’s still enough to smart.

hicsuget on April 18, 2011 at 1:21 PM

Not to quibble with the fine details. But someone paying $0 fed tax pays $0 or close to it in state tax as well.

Payroll taxes are deducted throughout the year. Not going to make a difference if the election is in April or November. Same with sales tax. That is paid equally throughout the year as well.

Only people who would be more inclined to vote for lower spending/taxes in April vs. November are people who actually send money to the IRS in April. And the 47% who pay $0 wouldn’t care either way.

angryed on April 18, 2011 at 2:19 PM

Could have sworn I read obama was nearly UNBEATABLE…now, where was that?????

winston on April 18, 2011 at 2:36 PM

What was Carter’s approval rating in 1979?

fossten on April 18, 2011 at 2:00 PM

From USA Today. Amazing.

Jimmy Carter ended 1979 with 54% approval and was defeated by Ronald Reagan in 1980.

Del Dolemonte on April 18, 2011 at 2:41 PM

Trump Slams Karl Rove – 4/18/2011

Nearly Nobody on April 18, 2011 at 2:54 PM

Ronald Reagan had 41 percent approval in 1983, the year before his 49-state landslide.

aengus on April 18, 2011 at 1:58 PM

Your magical Unicorn called. He says your skittles are ready.

Key West Reader on April 18, 2011 at 2:55 PM

Still, it says something about Obama’s standing that he can’t even clear 50% against a sideshow like Trump.

Still, it says something about all GOP candidate’s standings that they can’t even score higher than this joke/enemy/liar of a president.

jeffersonschild on April 18, 2011 at 3:04 PM

I think Trump’s popularity stems from challenging Obama’s bona fides, nothing more.

disa on April 18, 2011 at 3:20 PM

The man whoose motive is honorable never resents the spotlight of inquiry.

That’s the refreshing difference between Obama and Trump.

Trump is simply exposing what should be obvious: Obama’s motives are not honorable in him not being forthcoming and open like he promised on the campaign trail.

Trump’s judgement on his own policies aligning with true conservative/republican principles for a political campaign may be off, but his (Trump’s) motive and attitude is one of forcing people to be honest and beholden to the truth.

Notice that Trump has no problem with the details of his political notions being exposed as he answers questions about them forthrightly.

This poll will shift dramatically, with Obama getting even lower results as time goes on and Obama is proven a complete fraud as not being eligible – and knowingly so – for POTUS.

Mcguyver on April 18, 2011 at 3:21 PM

Mirimichi on April 18, 2011 at 1:55 PM
Why would a book that has already been debunked cause anti-palin people to have a warm heart?
I wouldn’t be surprised if Palin slaps a libel suit against the writer and publisher.
unseen on April 18, 2011 at 2:17 PM

We’re supposed to be shocked that she said she hates her damn job. I’d like to meet the person who has never uttered those words.

NoLeftTurn on April 18, 2011 at 3:24 PM

I find it comforting that 0bama is polling at less than 50%, but also scary that no one is beating him. That leaves me with the idea that more time has to pass and then some more candidates will declare and we can get on with the debates and primary.

For those of you who don’t like Sarah, this will warm the cockles of your heart.

Mirimichi on April 18, 2011 at 1:55 PM

Oh, that explains some gossip I read in a comment at politico about Palin emails or something coming out soon…

I’m glad it doesn’t seem to be anything new.

It does also explain why Palin’s website needed sprucing… they anticipate a war.

I rarely know the gossip on either side… but there were gleeful rumblings… now I get it.

petunia on April 18, 2011 at 3:33 PM

Trump has the potential to be a viable and serious candidate.
1 He has the charisma lacking in Romney and Gingrich (and unlike Romney was not the architect of a disastrous health care plan. But, on the downside he has, at least in the past, advocated a universal health care plan similar to Canada’s)
2 He has the sophistication lacking in Palin (but like Palin has the tendency to say egregious things-The Donald’s focus on Obama’s place of birth being one such gaffe.)
3 He has the straightforwardness and honesty lacking in Huckabee and, unlike this weasel, he did not pardon a convict who went on to murder four policemen. (But he has gotten himself into serious debt problems in the past which could haunt him is a presidential race.)

But I feel that polls inflate The Donald viz a viz a mediocre (to put it mildly) list of Republican potentials and deflate him in a national race against Obama. This is because he is untested by any actual election results-which primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire etc. can give him if he decides to run.

MaiDee on April 18, 2011 at 4:04 PM

2 He has the sophistication lacking in Palin (but like Palin has the tendency to say egregious things-The Donald’s focus on Obama’s place of birth being one such gaffe.)

MaiDee on April 18, 2011 at 4:04 PM

Looks like MaiDee took a little trip to Bizarro’s world there, for a minute. Yeah, the first thing I think about with Trump is “sophistication” and not saying egregious things.

And Trump has never been tested in political office. That’s why we can say what we do regarding Huckabee, Romney, and Palin. They have records we can look at. Some did a great job, others didn’t. What people say before getting to office is often different than what they do once in. Ask any Obama supporter. We don’t know any of that with Trump.

Dongemaharu on April 18, 2011 at 5:49 PM

Mirimichi on April 18, 2011 at 1:55 PM

They do note that Bailey chose an anti-Palin writer and a “critic” of Governor Palin to help pen the text. What they didn’t state is that “critic,” a man by the name of Ken Morris, is a known leftist who has a history of pulling obsessive stunts directed towards Governor Palin, and that the other writer, Jeanne Devon, is a legend in the Alaskan left-wing blogoshpere for her unhinged, freakish behavior aimed at hurting the governor. These aren’t just people who disagree with her politics. These are people who have spent a lot of time, money, and integrity trying to damage Governor Palin

lovingmyUSA on April 18, 2011 at 7:23 PM

That tell-all book looks like revenge…
Palin aide Frank Bailey placed on administrative leave
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNe4EKr8WiE

lovingmyUSA on April 18, 2011 at 7:24 PM

immy Carter ended 1979 with 54% approval and was defeated by Ronald Reagan in 1980.
Del Dolemonte on April 18, 2011 at 2:41 PM

Where is our Reagan candidate…oh wait–she isn’t running…

lovingmyUSA on April 18, 2011 at 7:40 PM