Hey, who’s up for another poll showing Trump leading the GOP field?

posted at 4:57 pm on April 12, 2011 by Allahpundit

Yeah, listen: These polls are wonderfully fun, but if he had even a ghost of a chance at the nomination, last night’s threat to singlehandedly reelect Barack Obama surely exorcised it. (Why on earth would he admit that publicly, anyway?) So by all means, let’s continue to ooh and ahh at the Giuliani Effect while it lasts — the man gives good soundbite, and if nothing else, his surging polls are a nifty way to express dissatisfaction with the state of the GOP field — but I think we can stop planning the Trump inauguration now.

Nineteen percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents questioned in the poll say that as of now, they’d be most likely to support Trump for next year’s GOP presidential nomination. Trump says he’ll decide by June whether he runs for the White House. An equal amount say they’d back Huckabee. The former Arkansas governor and 2008 Republican presidential candidate says he’ll decide by later this year if he’ll make another bid for the White House.

Twelve percent say they’d support former Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, who was the party’s 2008 vice presidential nominee, with 11 percent backing former Massachusetts Gov. and 2008 White House hopeful Mitt Romney and the same amount supporting former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Seven percent say they are backing Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, another 2008 presidential candidate, with five percent supporting Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, who enjoys strong backing from many in the Tea Party movement. Everyone else registers in the low single digits.

Trump jumped from 10 percent in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted last month, with Romney dropping from 18 percent to 11 percent.

The poll’s real significance is in that last bit. I don’t know what’s scarier for Mitt — the idea that his support is so soft that it’ll melt from two weeks of the guy from “The Apprentice” talking about Obama’s birth certificate, or the possibility that his decline isn’t Trump-related at all and is apt to persist even when Donaldmania cools. CNN’s pollster notes that Romney’s support actually drops without Trump in the race, which points directly at the second theory, but I dunno. They are an awful lot alike in some ways

Haley Barbour thinks this is mostly higher name recognition at work, which is true but tactful in how it omits the significance of Trump’s media Birther binge. The Donald is signaling as loudly as he can to the base that as nominee he’d attack Obama without fear of media disapproval, which earns him a “strong conservative” merit badge even though he’s, er, never really been a strong conservative. For a fascinating gloss on how the Birther stuff might be backfiring on him, though, read this post by Ben Smith on the damage done to Trump’s standing lately among black voters, who previously viewed him favorably. His cross-racial appeal would have been a political asset on the trail and catnip for a media starved for juicy horserace angles during the primary. So much for that.


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Comet with a combover.

rrpjr on April 12, 2011 at 4:59 PM

but I think we can stop planning the Trump inauguration now.

Snarky straw man – nobody said anything of the sort.

fossten on April 12, 2011 at 4:59 PM

Donald Trump secret agent for the Obamulan Empire.

NickDeringer on April 12, 2011 at 5:01 PM

Another stupid thread on this? Trump, the new gay.

Rocks on April 12, 2011 at 5:02 PM

read this post by Ben Smith on the damage done to Trump’s standing lately among black voters, who previously viewed him favorably.

I see a bunch of establishment liberal think-tank types, Bill Cosby, and Vivica Fox calling Trump a racist. Is that what you’re referring to?

Look, this is not the High Council of Black People. If the Donald’s strong among black voters, his polling data will say so. “Opinion leaders” seldom represent opinion.

But that’s neither here nor there. Trump’s Birtherism is a stupid distraction and idiotic strategy for independents, not black people.

KingGold on April 12, 2011 at 5:02 PM

Strong horse vs. Weak horse. People are attracted to self confidence and no BS approach. It isn’t the particulars, it is the attitude and the willingness to go after Obama.

echosyst on April 12, 2011 at 5:03 PM

BTW, anyone sick of Trump can thank GOProud for “giving” him their spot at CPAC.

Rocks on April 12, 2011 at 5:03 PM

Trump 19
Huckabee 19
Palin 12
Gingrich 11
Romney 11

Trump is Romney’s worst nightmare, too.

Emperor Norton on April 12, 2011 at 5:03 PM

Trump couldn’t survive even a little scrutiny. He makes Romney look half- believable on positions. Huckabee will take it, and even the Huck haters will belly up to the polls to vote for him over Obama.

Southernblogger on April 12, 2011 at 5:04 PM

Trump won’t run.

rrpjr on April 12, 2011 at 5:05 PM

Jesus Christ. Try to imagine a Dem Truther candidate running in 2007 and seized an early leads in the polls.

Yeah, I can’t imagine that either.

crr6 on April 12, 2011 at 5:05 PM

Jesus Christ. Try to imagine a Dem Truther candidate running in 2007 and seizing an early leads in the polls.

Yeah, I can’t imagine that either.

crr6 on April 12, 2011 at 5:05 PM

crr6 on April 12, 2011 at 5:06 PM

Isn’t Trump employed by NBC? And thus by GE?

Hmmmmmmm.

portlandon on April 12, 2011 at 5:06 PM

Hope people stop falling for this guy– dude wants to tack high tarriffs onto Chinese goods. Yeah, because starting a trade war with the people that hold all our debt is smart. And during a recession? Smoot-Hawley on steroids, anyone?

Pasalubong on April 12, 2011 at 5:07 PM

I think we should just keep letting him teach how to go after Obama on substantive things.

Cindy Munford on April 12, 2011 at 5:07 PM

read this post by Ben Smith on the damage done to Trump’s standing lately among black voters, who previously viewed him favorably.

Meh. I think the birther issue is the least productive way to attack Obama but let’s not pretend any GOP challenger (including Cain or West), even if they hit him hard on just the economy, is going to peel that much Black support away from him (they will just be called Uncle Toms).

Liberals are going to scream like stuck pigs about any effective criticism of Teh One. Anyone serious about winning better know that going in.

Kataklysmic on April 12, 2011 at 5:08 PM

Jesus Christ. Try to imagine a Dem Truther candidate running in 2007 and seized an early leads in the polls.

Yeah, I can’t imagine that either.

crr6 on April 12, 2011 at 5:05 PM

Yeah, no.

fossten on April 12, 2011 at 5:08 PM

We’re looking for someone to stand up to Barry, not negotiate in good faith with him and the rest of the traitors in D.C. Even if Donald is only doing it rhetoric-wise, it’s resonating because it’s perceived as going directly at Barry.

SouthernGent on April 12, 2011 at 5:09 PM

I’m all Trumped out.

faraway on April 12, 2011 at 5:09 PM

THe American public is still voting for president like it votes for American Idol.

Right now its personalities over issues.

William Amos on April 12, 2011 at 5:09 PM

A money-hungry fame-hungry reality tv star for President? Never. But enough about Palin, let’s talk about Trump!

/lib media

The Mega Independent on April 12, 2011 at 5:09 PM

Jesus Christ. Try to imagine a Dem Truther Communist candidate running in 2007 and seizing an early leads in the polls.

crr6 on April 12, 2011 at 5:05 PM

And what do you know, he won the election.

angryed on April 12, 2011 at 5:09 PM

portlandon on April 12, 2011 at 5:06 PM

Yep, I’ve thought that most of this was a publicity stunt since NBC is actually interviewing him about this stuff. Plus, isn’t this season of “The Apprentice” supposedly populated by “crazy” celebrities?

Cindy Munford on April 12, 2011 at 5:09 PM

AH_C on April 12, 2011 at 3:51 PM

hmmm, Sarah’s chances are really trading well at Intrade

oops

https://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=652756&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com

People who actually put money where their mouth is (as opposed to lols and rofls) don’t think seem too positive on Sarah’s chances. Just maybe the hotair comment sandbox does not reflect reality.

Of course Palinistas could prove this market wrong and make millions!

2012 Republican Presidential Nominee

(Mitt Romney to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012Event: 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee (others upon request)

27.0%
chance

Predict

Tim Pawlenty to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012Event: 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee (others upon request)

15.0%
chance

Predict

Mitch Daniels to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012Event: 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee (others upon request)

8.4%
chance

Predict

Michele Bachmann to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012Event: 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee (others upon request)

7.0%
chance

Predict

Donald Trump to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012Event: 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee (others upon request)

6.8%
chance

Predict

Mike Huckabee to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012Event: 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee (others upon request)

5.1%
chance

Predict

Sarah Palin to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012Event: 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee (others upon request)

4.6%
chance

windansea on April 12, 2011 at 5:09 PM

Trump’s Birtherism is a stupid distraction

You know you’re over the target when you start taking flak.

Emperor Norton on April 12, 2011 at 5:10 PM

last night’s threat to singlehandedly reelect Barack Obama surely exorcised it. (Why on earth would he admit that publicly, anyway?

Maybe he realizes that by the time 2012 rolls around and the GOP has played patty-cake with the Democrats for years on out of control spending that a third party will be very attractive to a lot of people?

sharrukin on April 12, 2011 at 5:11 PM

Waiting for the Donald Trump Series on Obama Birth Certificate Searching.

“You too, can look for President Obama’s Birth Certificate. For $29.95, I will send my starter kit which includes 8 step by step CD’s that will get you on the road to Birtherism.”

portlandon on April 12, 2011 at 5:11 PM

windansea on April 12, 2011 at 5:09 PM

You’re Palin obsession is noted for the Record.

What? Not enough Romney threads to keep you busy?

portlandon on April 12, 2011 at 5:12 PM

Jesus Christ. Try to imagine a Dem Truther candidate running in 2007 and seized an early leads in the polls.

Yeah, I can’t imagine that either.

crr6 on April 12, 2011 at 5:05 PM

I agree with you that they wouldn’t have. But your underlying point conflates the two positions. Which is a big mistake imo.

Kataklysmic on April 12, 2011 at 5:13 PM

Trump is not running for President. He is doing the GOP a favor by hammering Obama on the birther issue prior to the election period, giving prominent Republicans an opportunity to say they believe Obama was born in the US and thus effectively removing the issue from the general election cycle.
True many people- R, D and I will believe Obama is not a citizen, but that only hurts Obama with those people. The others won’t be associating the disbelief with the GOP candidate. By the time the general election comes along, the birther issue will be in the back of some peoples minds but general public will be bored with the topic.

LeeSeneca on April 12, 2011 at 5:13 PM

Comet with a combover.

rrpjr on April 12, 2011 at 4:59 PM

Another stupid thread on this? Trump, the new gay.

Rocks on April 12, 2011 at 5:02 PM

Now, those were funny.

BuckeyeSam on April 12, 2011 at 5:13 PM

read this post by Ben Smith on the damage done to Trump’s standing lately among black voters, who previously viewed him favorably.

OH NO!! So instead of 98.9% of the black vote vs. Romney, Obama will get 99.1% vs. Trump.

You’re right, we can’t possibly risk alienating the 17 blacks who might think of possibly not voting for Obama.

angryed on April 12, 2011 at 5:14 PM

Trump isn’t going to be President.

But he may effect who is.

That is why he needs to be handled with care.

I can see why Romney’s vote goes to Trump. It’s the economy stupid.

Obama is desperately out of touch on the economy… there is a great longing to see someone take over who has the basics of business sense.

However the details of his version protectionism that Donald has been talking about lately are very scary. And not at all conservative.

Doesn’t Donald believe in capitalism?

Donald will soon talk himself into a hole I think.

petunia on April 12, 2011 at 5:14 PM

I think we should just keep letting him teach how to go after Obama on substantive things.

Cindy Munford on April 12, 2011 at 5:07 PM

I agree. It’s both funny and sad how he’s schooled the pathetic GOP on political warfare. (Not that they’re paying attention, but who knows.) He’s done more bitch-slapping of the media in one week than the GOP has done in my lifetime.

rrpjr on April 12, 2011 at 5:14 PM

I’m wary of Trumps obsession with the birth certificate.I can’t figure his angle. He’s not one to lose gracefully, so I don’t know if there is anything there or not. We really have absolutely nothing on Obamas past so.. Curious….

sandee on April 12, 2011 at 5:14 PM

“You too, can look for President Obama’s Birth Certificate. For $29.95, I will send my starter kit which includes 8 step by step CD’s that will get you on the road to Birtherism.”

portlandon on April 12, 2011 at 5:11 PM

LOL

idesign on April 12, 2011 at 5:15 PM

You’re Palin obsession is noted for the Record.

What? Not enough Romney threads to keep you busy?

portlandon on April 12, 2011 at 5:12 PM

hmmm, my first comment in weeks

just pointing the bots towards a money making opportunity

mommy, make him stop!!!

windansea on April 12, 2011 at 5:16 PM

Sarah Palin to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012Event: 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee (others upon request)

4.6%
chance

windansea on April 12, 2011 at 5:09 PM

That’s a good buy IMO. At some point there will be some rumor that she’s running and that will spike to 10 or 15%.

angryed on April 12, 2011 at 5:17 PM

He should pick Bob Trumpy as his running mate.

2 Trumps for the price of 1.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZCQZ4ftPM4

Del Dolemonte on April 12, 2011 at 5:18 PM

In light of Obama’s wholesale incompetence in economic, business, commercial, and tax policy matters, Trump should start demanding Obama’s transcripts and tying Obama’s educational background and adult work experience to his incompetence.

For crying out loud, little Susie who’s running a lemonade stand in that cute Verizon ad that I see on TV has more business skill than Obama.

BuckeyeSam on April 12, 2011 at 5:18 PM

This poll must be bogus. Nobody would vote for Huckabee.

freedomplow on April 12, 2011 at 5:18 PM

hmmm, my first comment in weeks

just pointing the bots towards a money making opportunity

mommy, make him stop!!!

windansea on April 12, 2011 at 5:16 PM

So your first comment is weeks is about Sarah Palin?

Even creepier than I thought.

portlandon on April 12, 2011 at 5:18 PM

I can’t decide.

Does this reflect how good Trump is?

Or how bad everyone else is in comparison?

Lawrence on April 12, 2011 at 5:19 PM

How many times has the GOP been warned of a third party if they don’t shape up?

Speakup on April 12, 2011 at 5:21 PM

the damage done to Trump’s standing lately among black voters, who previously viewed him favorably.

BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAA!
Wonder how those ‘black’ votes went for Bush. Dole. Reagan. Herbert Walker. McLame. Ford. Tricky Dick….

Lanceman on April 12, 2011 at 5:21 PM

I’d just like to quote another front-runner:

“yeeeaarrrrrghh”

krakatoa on April 12, 2011 at 5:22 PM

I can’t decide.

Does this reflect how good Trump is?

Or how bad everyone else is in comparison?

Lawrence on April 12, 2011 at 5:19 PM

Excellent point!..:)

Dire Straits on April 12, 2011 at 5:22 PM

Bet you all get gooey for Mittens, don’t ‘cha.

Mr. Grump on April 12, 2011 at 5:24 PM

This can’t be real. This has to be some sort of superplant conceived of by Soros to split the GOP vote to win 2012.

joeindc44 on April 12, 2011 at 5:25 PM

How many times has the GOP been warned of a third party if they don’t shape up?

Speakup on April 12, 2011 at 5:21 PM

I think if they cared about conservative principles those warnings would have been heeded. But it appears they only care about power. Which they retain more of with an Obama win than with a conservative outsider win.

Kataklysmic on April 12, 2011 at 5:25 PM

That’s a good buy IMO. At some point there will be some rumor that she’s running and that will spike to 10 or 15%.

angryed on April 12, 2011 at 5:17 PM

she was at 27% in May 2010, since then dropping like a stone

too bad the HA truecon squad have no huevos

windansea on April 12, 2011 at 5:27 PM

I can’t decide.

Does this reflect how good Trump is?

Or how bad everyone else is in comparison?

Lawrence on April 12, 2011 at 5:19 PM

That is sad.

I think our candidates are really pretty good. They are just people… so I guess if we are looking for a demigod to run against Obama that’s understandable we haven’t found them yet…

It’s early, they aren’t even declared yet. I’d really like to see us come together early so the focus could be on attacking Obama not each other.

petunia on April 12, 2011 at 5:29 PM

I actually respect him more for admitting he might go third party.

Would you rather have a politician who will lie to get elected, or one who will be honest with you even when he knows you won’t like the answer?

It’s very in character of him. I like that.

Vegi on April 12, 2011 at 5:29 PM

she was at 27% in May 2010, since then dropping like a stone

too bad the HA truecon squad have no huevos

windansea on April 12, 2011 at 5:27 PM

A poll cite would be nice.

Del Dolemonte on April 12, 2011 at 5:34 PM

He’s not a superstar.

He’s the Destroyer of The Fraud.

Key West Reader on April 12, 2011 at 5:34 PM

We really have absolutely nothing on Obamas past so.. Curious….

sandee on April 12, 2011 at 5:14 PM

Someone like Trump isn’t likely to make the claims, unless he already has some kind of evidence in hand.

Rebar on April 12, 2011 at 5:35 PM

I seem to recall similar things were said about Rudy G.
And what % of the vote did he really get?
I call BS.

Badger40 on April 12, 2011 at 5:35 PM

Romney needs a really bad haircut.

profitsbeard on April 12, 2011 at 5:35 PM

I can see the whiner has returned to protect his stupid f**king joke of a candidate.

If nothing else, this is proving that the presidential race will be determined by how many TV shows the candidate has been on that have nothing to do with politics.

MadisonConservative on April 12, 2011 at 5:35 PM

Donald Trump is just coming right out and saying what needs to be said. Obama is a failure. Obama may be a fraud. Obama is stupid. Obama’s policies suck. Obama sucks. Socialism sucks. The Chinese are ripping us off. So is OPEC.

Hero!

Presidential? Eh, probably not. But what I typed above needs to be said by someone with enough Oooomph to get that message across. And, it is working.

Key West Reader on April 12, 2011 at 5:36 PM

I actually respect him more for admitting he might go third party.

Would you rather have a politician who will lie to get elected, or one who will be honest with you even when he knows you won’t like the answer?

It’s very in character of him. I like that.

Vegi on April 12, 2011 at 5:29 PM

I take it you’re also a huge Jesse Ventura fan, then.

TexasDan on April 12, 2011 at 5:36 PM

An Independent run sure why not. Anyone who dismisses Trump as not a serious contender for the Presidency, can’t claim he’s going to be a spoiler….unless they are progressive, those are the only people I know who think they get to have it both ways.

I like Donald Trump he projects American Strength and Confidence. Mitt Romney on the other hand, may come back in his next life as a weather vane – because he is always checking which way the political wind is blowing.

I can’t believe Romney dug up an old Nixon idea for Massachusetts health care….and Obama adopted it for the entire country. Some where Tricky Dick is laughing his A$$ off.

Dr Evil on April 12, 2011 at 5:39 PM

I take it you’re also a huge Jesse Ventura fan, then.

TexasDan on April 12, 2011 at 5:36 PM

Being a fan and respecting someone for a virtue they possess are two different things. I respect Saddam Hussein for dying like a man, that doesn’t mean I am a fan of his.

sharrukin on April 12, 2011 at 5:39 PM

I agree with you that they wouldn’t have. But your underlying point conflates the two positions. Which is a big mistake imo.

Kataklysmic on April 12, 2011 at 5:13 PM

I agree Truthers are much more offensive than Birthers, for obvious reasons. But I think they’re comparable in terms of their sheer illogicality, and their inability to accept objective facts which are placed in front of them.

crr6 on April 12, 2011 at 5:39 PM

Someone like Trump isn’t likely to make the claims, unless he already has some kind of evidence in hand.

Rebar on April 12, 2011 at 5:35 PM

Agree. I don’t believe that Trump would destroy his reputation or credibility or integrity by coming straight out like this.

I’m just waiting to see what true evidence is revealed and I believe that Trump has enough resources and fact checkers to verify whether or not Trump is wrong or right.

In the end it’s a win win. America gets to find out who this meatpuppet clown really is, and Trump gets to take credit for doing the job even the Clintoons were askeered to do.

Win Win.

/Just don’t run third party

Key West Reader on April 12, 2011 at 5:39 PM

A poll cite would be nice.
Del Dolemonte on April 12, 2011 at 5:34 PM

I cited Intrade above, and it’s a market, not a poll

standings are a result of how people bet with their own money, a bit diferent from an opinion survey

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventClassId=19

windansea on April 12, 2011 at 5:41 PM

It might work out that Romney co -opts Trump for his ticket otherwise Trump could draw votes away from Romney.

2 days after Trump appeared on “The Factor” Romney was realsing his I will push back hard against Obama speech. People are kidding themselves if they don’t think the politicians see a Trump insurgency as something to worry about…if you listen to Donald Trump it’s like he is making how to guides for what the Republican contenders should sound like. The comparison between Trump and the others leaves them looking like milk toast – wishy washy uh overly polished career politicians.

The one thing Romney has going for him he’s a rainmaker, and we sure could use one…but if you asked Donald Trump if he considered himself a rainmaker, he no doubt would claim that attribute also.

Dr Evil on April 12, 2011 at 5:44 PM

we don’t elect presidents anymore..we sell candidates like soda pop and laxatives. obama was sold to us by the willing and complicit media/entertainment complex.

americans can be sold anything once (remember the AMC Pacer)..and once is all it takes in presidential politics.

america’s ceo / tv star / high Q rating / in your face style…trump can win. he is a product half of america will buy once.

DrW on April 12, 2011 at 5:46 PM

This just makes no sense, even amongst the nutball birfers. I’m getting the feeling that these polls are being gamed by the Paulbots after Trump’s comments at CPAC this year. Wouldn’t surprise me, anyway…they’re masters at that.

JetBoy on April 12, 2011 at 5:47 PM

What is so interesting is that Trump’s superior business knowledge has eliminated Mittens claim to have more business sense than any other candidate. The result is Mittens, having nothing else to offer, drops like a rock. Also Trump is exactly the man the Tea Party has always wanted because he will “fire them all” in DC and start over. Interestingly also, Trump is a real Presbyterian. Those guys are the origin of our stubbornly American voted into power representative government, and they have always fought to kill off invading Emperial forces, be they kings or popes. He is the GOP’s goldylocks candidate.

jimw on April 12, 2011 at 5:47 PM

I agree Truthers are much more offensive than Birthers, for obvious reasons. But I think they’re comparable in terms of their sheer illogicality, and their inability to accept objective facts which are placed in front of them.

crr6 on April 12, 2011 at 5:39 PM

As a former resident of Hawai’i I can tell you that there are no such things as “objective facts” in their State government.

Just curious-how did O’bama’s half sister get a Hawai’i BC?

Del Dolemonte on April 12, 2011 at 5:49 PM

If nothing else, this is proving that the presidential race will be determined by how many TV shows the candidate has been on that have nothing to do with politics.

MadisonConservative on April 12, 2011 at 5:35 PM

You mean compared to last Presidential Election, when a day time tv gabfest hostess, picked the next President of the United States?

Dr Evil on April 12, 2011 at 5:51 PM

Blacks wouldn’t have voted for him in a race that included O, anyway. So what? Heck, blacks wouldn’t vote for West or Cain in a race that had O in it. They love O. I know, recent polls show O losing some minorities, but the vast % of blacks will vote for him no. matter. what.

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on April 12, 2011 at 5:51 PM

Jesus Christ. Try to imagine a Dem Truther candidate running in 2007 and seized an early leads in the polls.

Yeah, I can’t imagine that either.

crr6 on April 12, 2011 at 5:05 PM

Yeah, well truther and birther aren’t the same level of insanity, are they?

Not even close. This was a very weak analogy on your part.

Truther was a much more radical accusation, accusing the President of the United States of participating in a massive conspiracy to murder his own citizens to accomplish….uh, I forgot.

Vs.a a guy falsifying/hiding his birth records so that he can be elected president.

The birthers are leveling a more plausible and less serious accusation than the truthers are leveling.

The fact that there are so many truthers in the Democratic Party is damning enough in itself.

Oh and by the way, your assertion wasn’t even factually true:

http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2003/12/2/203631.shtml

Dreadnought on April 12, 2011 at 5:52 PM

How strong would this campaign slogan be?

“Obama…you’re fired”

Where do I get my Tshirt and yard sign?

DrW on April 12, 2011 at 5:52 PM

I cited Intrade above, and it’s a market, not a poll

standings are a result of how people bet with their own money, a bit diferent from an opinion survey

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventClassId=19

windansea on April 12, 2011 at 5:41 PM

LOL! intrade also had Martha Coakley in a dead heat with Scott Brown in MA. How did that turn out?

Del Dolemonte on April 12, 2011 at 5:52 PM

Key West Reader on April 12, 2011 at 5:36 PM

People are looking for a fighter, someone who is fearless. Right now no Republican is doing that. I hope he really does have investigators and that they are uncovering previously unknown information. If they don’t, then he looks like a kook. I don’t think he is willing to take on the kook label, but we shall see. I don’t think he is willing to take a pay cut, either.

BetseyRoss on April 12, 2011 at 5:53 PM

His cross-racial appeal would have been a political asset on the trail and catnip for a media starved for juicy horserace angles during the primary. So much for that.

No leftie black would ever not vote for Obama.

Schadenfreude on April 12, 2011 at 5:53 PM

This is a must-read, on researching Barry Soetero:

http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/35298

There is much, much more than a birth certificate at issue here. People like Ann Coulter who dismiss the service that Donald Trump is doing for this country need to wake up and smell the coffee.

I’m not saying that my gratitude will result in my voting for the Donald, but I’m simultaneously exhiliarated and sickened by what is turning up.

disa on April 12, 2011 at 5:54 PM

Republicans still haven’t learned the lesson of the last Presidential Election? It was the people who watch Oprah, The View, American Idol, and read People Magazine (for the pictures) that got Obama elected in 2008…sure they don’t know anything about politics – it’s a popularity contest with those people…no wonder Romney is concerned. Donald Trump already runs in those celebrity circles. How many Hollywood and Mainstream Media types would attack Donald Trump out in the open, he knows where all the skeletons in their closets are located :)

Dr Evil on April 12, 2011 at 5:56 PM

but I think we can stop planning the Trump inauguration now.

What are you talking about?

Daemonocracy on April 12, 2011 at 5:56 PM

I can’t decide.

Does this reflect how good Trump is?

Or how bad everyone else is in comparison?

Lawrence on April 12, 2011 at 5:19 PM

Among those getting all the attention, it’s the second choice. Name recognition by virtue of being re-treads, or nutjobs with a TV show.

There are good ones out there that have not gotten much attention, and hopefully more good ones that haven’t stepped up yet.

iurockhead on April 12, 2011 at 5:58 PM

Donald Trump may not run for President, but he is doing a public service. He is shaking up the Republican wannabes. They are not inspiring me in the least maybe that’s the message Trump is trying to send the Republican Presidential aspirants “Bring Your A Game”

Dr Evil on April 12, 2011 at 6:00 PM

windansea on April 12, 2011 at 5:09 PM

I don’t know if Palin has much of a chance, but either way InTrade arguments this far out are dumb. What was Obama trading at in April 2007? IIRC Giuliani was the clear GOP frontrunner back then.

Missy on April 12, 2011 at 6:01 PM

I give him a merit badge for talking the tough talk, too.

John the Libertarian on April 12, 2011 at 6:01 PM

Yeah, well truther and birther aren’t the same level of insanity, are they?

Not even close. This was a very weak analogy on your part.

Troofers and Birfers are equally nutty…lots of conspiracies and nothing to back ‘em up.

JetBoy on April 12, 2011 at 6:05 PM

LOL! intrade also had Martha Coakley in a dead heat with Scott Brown in MA. How did that turn out?

Del Dolemonte on April 12, 2011 at 5:52 PM

so did most pollsters, and if you knew Brown was going to win you could have made some money, depending on how early you knew.

that’s the point with Intrade, there is no head pollster predicting this or that, just a bunch of people betting on what they think will happen.

get to it genius

windansea on April 12, 2011 at 6:09 PM

Troofers and Birfers are equally nutty…lots of conspiracies and nothing to back ‘em up.

JetBoy on April 12, 2011 at 6:05 PM

It’s more like you have nothing to refute them except smears. Dispute the fake SS# and the lack of a passport even though he traveled outside the country. Lets hear some argument from you other than “you’re crazy man”.

DFCtomm on April 12, 2011 at 6:11 PM

I take it you’re also a huge Jesse Ventura fan, then.

TexasDan on April 12, 2011 at 5:36 PM

No, because I know for a fact Ventura is just plain batshit nuts.

Trump may not see eye to eye with me on everything, but he is pro-life, and anti-obama, pro business, doesn’t back down, and is ruthless with his political enemies.

He has a lot of traits I like.

Vegi on April 12, 2011 at 6:13 PM

Trump is a symptom, but the disease is a cancer in the GOP. If the GOP offered something other than McCain, Romney, Huck, and Newt then you might not have a trump. The Donald represents a failure of the GOP and nothing else.

DFCtomm on April 12, 2011 at 6:14 PM

Another stupid thread on this? Trump, the new gay.

Rocks on April 12, 2011 at 5:02 PM

..if everyone gets bored with this, I say we thaw out and re-heat McCain for 2012. Hell, let’s see if running Bob Dole gives anyone a stiffy.

Just go about your business, people, nothing to see here.

The War Planner on April 12, 2011 at 6:14 PM

I don’t know if Palin has much of a chance, but either way InTrade arguments this far out are dumb. What was Obama trading at in April 2007? IIRC Giuliani was the clear GOP frontrunner back then.

Missy on April 12, 2011 at 6:01 PM

yes of course, nobody knows for sure what will happen, just pointing out the opportunity for certain commenters here that seem so sure that Palin will be the nominee. :)

Intrade is just a bunch of individuals betting on their predictions

windansea on April 12, 2011 at 6:15 PM

Trump leads GOP polls = Republican/Whig Presidential contenders are……SUCKTASTIC!!!!

PappyD61 on April 12, 2011 at 6:15 PM

Give the man credit.

He’s on offense, he’s taking fire and he’s pushing the narrative/meme stream.

He’s like an All-Pro offensive lineman; he’s mashing the field. Will the any of the GOP’s quick backs (oxymoron?) run for daylight while there is a hole in the MSM line?

Bruno Strozek on April 12, 2011 at 6:16 PM

LOL! intrade also had Martha Coakley in a dead heat with Scott Brown in MA. How did that turn out?

Del Dolemonte on April 12, 2011 at 5:52 PM

so did most pollsters, and if you knew Brown was going to win you could have made some money, depending on how early you knew.

that’s the point with Intrade, there is no head pollster predicting this or that, just a bunch of people betting on what they think will happen.

get to it genius

windansea on April 12, 2011 at 6:09 PM

Sorry, “genius”, but a canvass of the polling in MA shows that most polls had Brown leading decisively; out of 9 polls showing him leading, 4 showed him ahead by 9 to 15 points.

Only 2 polls had him and Coakley in a tie.

Meanwhile, the Boston Globe had Coakley winning by 17. And Suffolk University had her leading by 31%.

Thanks for playing!

Del Dolemonte on April 12, 2011 at 6:17 PM

It’s more like you have nothing to refute them except smears. Dispute the fake SS# and the lack of a passport even though he traveled outside the country. Lets hear some argument from you other than “you’re crazy man”.

DFCtomm on April 12, 2011 at 6:11 PM

The SS number thing seems to be a WND obsession. Again, there is absolutely nothing to back up any birther claims. Burden of proof is on them, not me.

JetBoy on April 12, 2011 at 6:19 PM

windansea on April 12, 2011 at 5:09 PM

You do realize that since Dodd-Frank passed, you can’t use credit cards or debit cards to place bets on Intrade? That’s got to have severely eaten into their user base and greatly diminished the usefulness of Intrade as a predictive tool of any sort.

PLEASE NOTE:

If your credit or debit card was issued by a US bank then we are very sorry to have to inform you that due to US banking regulations that came into force in 2010 you will almost certainly not be able to use it on Intrade.

We really wish this were not the case and if we were able to take your CC/DC deposit we would but as noted, the problem is as a result of US banking regulations and not Intrade.

steebo77 on April 12, 2011 at 6:19 PM

An Independent run sure why not. Anyone who dismisses Trump as not a serious contender for the Presidency, can’t claim he’s going to be a spoiler….

Dr Evil on April 12, 2011 at 5:39 PM

Seriously? How is being a serious contender at all comparable to being a spoiler? If Trump were to get as little as 15% of the vote, with most coming from the right, it would easily put Obama into office. He could easily do that even having no chance of winning a two-man race outright.

RINO in Name Only on April 12, 2011 at 6:21 PM

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