Egyptian poll: 63% want peace treaty with Israel to continue, sort of

posted at 9:54 pm on April 7, 2011 by Allahpundit

Hard to believe given that Israel’s favorable rating in Egypt not long ago was 3/92, but the two results aren’t strictly contradictory. Memories of previous wars may be long and patience with the pace of internal democratization may be short. Egyptians might simply have concluded that they have more important things to worry about right now, their antipathy to the Jewish state notwithstanding. And in fact, asked what the biggest problem currently facing Egypt is, literally no one said “relations with Israel.” Number one was the economy with 35 percent.

Elliott Abrams:

A recent poll by the International Peace Institute asked Egyptians about their political preferences. As reported in the Wall Street Journal, 80 percent had a favorable opinion of Arab League Secretary General Amre Moussa, versus only 10 percent for the head of the Muslim Brotherhood. More important, 63 percent want Egypt to honor its peace treaty with Israel against only 14 percent who do not. The poll also reveals wide support for the liberal and democratic groups that led the recent revolt against the Mubarak regime. Remarkably, 82 percent want Egypt to continue liberalizing and opening its economy.

I am not a great fan of Amre Moussa and do not view him as a champion of democracy. He was Mubarak’s foreign minister for a decade, and as head of the Arab League never seemed to care about democracy until the last few months, when Arabs rose up to demand it. But the data in this poll suggest that fears of a Muslim Brotherhood takeover of Egypt may be overblown. Egyptians may be susceptible to demagogic appeals from politicians, but at least for now the poll indicates that many have a sensible view of their country’s economic and political situation.

Here’s the IPI homepage and a direct link to the crosstabs. The question on Israel is more complicated than Abrams implies. Asked how they’d feel about a party that favors breaking the treaty and ending diplomatic relations with Israel, 37 percent said they’d be at least somewhat more likely to support it versus 32 percent who’d be less likely. Asked how they’d feel about a party that would keep the treaty in place and favor a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine, 63 percent were at least somewhat more likely to support it versus just 14 percent who were less likely. They didn’t ask the treaty question in isolation, in other words, but even so, assuming those numbers are right, it’s bad news for the Muslim Brotherhood’s agenda. Similarly, 34 percent say the endorsement of Brotherhood “spiritual leader” Yusuf al-Qaradawi would make them at least somewhat more likely to support a candidate, but 30 percent say it would make them less likely. And the Brotherhood’s own favorable rating stands at just 38/36, with 27 percent saying they don’t know enough yet. Even among that 38 percent, I wonder what percentage are hardcore Islamist nuts and what percentage simply favor the MB due to identity politics. (For more on that, listen to this brief NPR chat with a Tunisian blogger.)

If any of this has you wearing rose-colored glasses, take ‘em off and revisit the harrowing poll numbers Michael Totten posted about a few months ago. The situation is, as they say, highly fluid, and the Brotherhood’s side did after all win the referendum a few weeks ago calling for elections sooner rather than later. And even among the more westernized members of Egypt’s new political leadership, jerky little bottom-feeding demagogues remain. Still, though, there’s a fair chance that the Brotherhood will overreach — “modesty” in women’s dress wasn’t a top priority for Egyptians polled — and the fact remains that Egypt’s military cartel will be very, very reluctant to give up the filthy lucre it enjoys from the country’s industries by letting a would-be Khomeini take power. Not exactly cause for “hope,” but not cause for despair (yet) either. Small favors!


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63% want peace treaty with Israel to continue, sort of

The other 37% want a piece of Israel.

Rocks on April 7, 2011 at 9:55 PM

I find that hard to believe!

canopfor on April 7, 2011 at 10:01 PM

” — and the fact remains that Egypt’s military cartel will be very, very reluctant to give up the filthy lucre it enjoys from the country’s industries just because some would-be Khomeini says so.”

Hmmmmmmmm…

Kicking back in the seat of power enjoying all the trappings…

… or face dying a horrible death in the desert for some fanatic.

Tough choice…!

… But what does this have to do with Kloppenburg having to eat crow?

/

Seven Percent Solution on April 7, 2011 at 10:02 PM

Prior to Sadat’s signing the Peace Treaty with Israel, Egypt had some huge economic problems…I mean huge.

No investors wanted in, couldn’t get insurance and they didn’t want to pay out of pocket to rebuild or restock everything next time the ‘gypters got a wild hair up their….well, anyway, nearly half of the economy was directed toward the military and the rest to the pockets of the elites.

After the treaty, foreign investors started pumping money into Egypt (not nearly enough) and tourism really took off. For well over a decade after the treaty, construction in and around Cairo was non-stop (all night long in many districts) and money started flowing down to the masses far more than under Nasser, even with billions in Soviet aid pouring in when Nasser ruled.

So, the Ikhwan may wish to abrogate the treaty, and a few others on the nationalist fringe may also, but the regular folks out there have been doing better since the peace treaty than they ever have.

Why poo in the well?

coldwarrior on April 7, 2011 at 10:02 PM

I find that hard to believe!

canopfor on April 7, 2011 at 10:01 PM

^^^^^ THIS ^^^^
It only takes 0.001% to become the ruler and the 99.995% will follow along without question.

Electrongod on April 7, 2011 at 10:03 PM

Redo the poll next week and the numbers will switch. Earth’s Armpit isn’t exactly known for reliable results on anything.

Bishop on April 7, 2011 at 10:03 PM

A recent poll by the International Peace Institute…

IPI specializes in multilateral approaches to peace and security issues, working closely with the Secretariat and membership of the United Nations.

Since 2005, IPI has been led by Terje Rød-Larsen, a principal architect of the Oslo Peace Accords (between the PLO and the Government of Israel) and a Norwegian sociologist and diplomat who has served the UN as its senior envoy in the Middle East.

You can call me a little skeptical about this poll!

sharrukin on April 7, 2011 at 10:04 PM

Meanwhile….back at the Jihady Ranch!
===========================================

ElBaradei: We’ll fight back if Israel attacks Gaza
Published: 04.04.11, 14:15 / Israel News
****************************************************

In interview with Arab newspaper, former IAEA chief says if elected as Egypt’s next president he will open Rafah crossing in case of an Israeli attack

Former International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei, who had previously announced his intetions to run for the presidency of Egypt,

************************************************************
said Monday that “if Israel attacked Gaza we would declare war against the Zionist regime.”
************************************************************

(More….)

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4051939,00.html

canopfor on April 7, 2011 at 10:10 PM

I find that hard to believe!

canopfor on April 7, 2011 at 10:01 PM
==========================
^^^^^ THIS ^^^^
It only takes 0.001% to become the ruler and the 99.995% will follow along without question.

Electrongod on April 7, 2011 at 10:03 PM

Electrongod:Yup,followed by,Gawd is Great..sumpin..sumpin!:)

canopfor on April 7, 2011 at 10:12 PM

Tough choice…!

… But what does this have to do with Kloppenburg having to eat crow?

/

Seven Percent Solution on April 7, 2011 at 10:02 PM

Seven Percent Solution:Lol,its sooo Progressive,haha!:)

canopfor on April 7, 2011 at 10:15 PM

While were on the Middle East!
=================================
American Exceptionalism, Foreign Policy Initiatives, Foreign Affairs, Diplomatic, Intelligence and Military Analysis

Thursday, April 7, 2011
Hot Spring, Hotter Summer
**************************

“So hot – we’ll melt your Popsicle”

Whoa! Whoa!

Great Satan is making a push into formerly Talibani friendly turf in the AF end of AFPAK.

Nothing magic really – as any serious student of Great Satan’s Most Excellent Warcraft Adventures knows – the American Way of War is generally to take the fight right into enemy’s living room, long, strong and getting the friction on. Not stopping til said enemy screams “GOD! PLEASE! STOP!”

Despite any risible inappropriate (and to be fair – kinda semi sorta psychic) handwringing and worrying about the wrong thing ((seriously – a comic book monger who never got the message in Amazing Spider- Man #1?! Whisko Tangy Foxwhat?)

Surge Expert exColonel Nagle gives up the deets:

“Campaigns are not won by killing every insurgent and terrorist. The most committed terrorists have to be killed or captured, but many of the foot soldiers and even the midlevel leaders can eventually be convinced through a combination of carrots and sticks that renouncing violence and becoming part of the political process offer a better chance for success than continuing to fight.”

Perhaps nothing makes such an event totally happen more than a reinforced squad of Great Satan’s Screaming Eagles professionally xforming Taliban strongholds into smoking cemeteries of dead creeps and sharing such hap hap happy events with fence sitters and sympathizers.

This spring is hotter than a firecracker and this summer will be hotter.
(More………….)

http://greatsatansgirlfriend.blogspot.com/2011/04/hot-spring-hotter-summer.html

canopfor on April 7, 2011 at 10:21 PM

I don’t think Egypt will get to out of hand. After all, no one will want to visit radioactive pyramids…

Wolftech on April 7, 2011 at 10:31 PM

63% Taqiyya – Brotherhood of Lies

Kini on April 7, 2011 at 10:35 PM

When you have a empty belly and have not had a hot meal in days. Can’t afford the fuel to heat anything as you have not had tourist dollar in a long time. There is trash is in the street and no sign that it will get picked up any time soon. Killing Jews is not that high up for some people. As starting a war with Israel will not feed the hungry and clean the trash up why not try something that would.

tjexcite on April 7, 2011 at 10:41 PM

Getting your ass kicked over and over has a way of making you embrace things that will keep you from getting your ass kicked over and over.

greggriffith on April 7, 2011 at 10:48 PM

They want a false peace treaty. I wouldn’t trust the Brotherhood, they are supplying the Palestinians with rockets and cash.

wi farmgirl on April 7, 2011 at 11:02 PM

They want a false peace treaty. I wouldn’t trust the Brotherhood, they are supplying the Palestinians with rockets and cash.

wi farmgirl on April 7, 2011 at 11:02 PM

The ‘palestinians’ used an anti-tank rocket on an Israeli school bus full of children yesterday. That’s the kind of animals we are dealing with in the ME, and that rocket probably came over the Egyptian border.

slickwillie2001 on April 7, 2011 at 11:07 PM

Must be getting low on F-16 parts.

Hudna, hudna, hudna.

profitsbeard on April 8, 2011 at 12:05 AM

If the brotherhood takes over why would they ever care about that except as information on potential troublemakers to execute for being ‘Zionist spies”

Defector01 on April 8, 2011 at 12:13 AM

The truth is only time will tell. I heard the other day that the military there had said they would not let an extreme government take power. However, their idea of extreme and our idea of extreme might not be the same thing.

A lot of the strife in Egypt seems to be coming from dissatisfaction with the economy there. I am not sure most people really want a war right now..that does not mean they like Israel. I don’t like Hugo Chavez, but I don’t want a war with Venezuela either.

Terrye on April 8, 2011 at 6:58 AM

The Israeli concept with those in Egypt wanting to go to war with Israel if Israel retaliates against HAMAS in Gaza should be: if you feel that way, then they are your representatives, your proxy, and if HAMAS continues to attack us then YOU are the ones declaring war, not US.

Make that linkage open, public, stated and let whoever comes into power know that they can tie their fate to HAMAS in Gaza, or they can cut it loose. Leave no space between those two things and force them to either adhere to their peace treaty and do something about Gaza or stop complaining when Israel DOES. Put the MB and the radicals in Egypt on the hook for keeping Gaza quiet or show their true colors on how they really feel about the Palestinians as expendables in a quest for war.

If you want peace then do something to demonstrate it and stop the supply of arms to HAMAS and start showing the people there how to live a civil life – you cannot have it both ways and blame Israel for the result of what the MB has been doing for decades. Because HAMAS is part of the MB by their own charter. If the MB wants their foreign policy in the region set by HAMAS, then make that plain and obvious to everyone, and say what the lines of accountability ARE. Might give Egyptians a second thought or five about who, exactly, they want to be in the next government.

ajacksonian on April 8, 2011 at 7:30 AM

Really, “sort of” still very strong support for Muslim Brotherhood and anti-American and anti-Israel sentiment.

Plus, with only 615 completes, it is not a strong sammple set. In the US we typically do at least 1000 with random digit dial and very strong quota management to be sure it is representative and even then really the data is only strong if you get isolated questions in a long term trend, say 10 weeks in a row with secular events non-salient.

georgealbert on April 8, 2011 at 9:13 AM

Why poo in the well?
coldwarrior on April 7, 2011 at 10:02 PM

You could have asked that question any day for the past 1200 years, and you’d get the same answer: Because this is Islam.

OF COURSE a majority of people in any of these countries want peace and prosperity. Unfortunately, a minority of the population (and right around 15% is typical) want to KILL the people who want peace and prosperity.

Freedom isn’t something you vote for; it’s something you fight for. And if Egyptian Muslims end up cleaning their own house, that’d be just swell. But it would also be the first time in history it’s ever happened.

logis on April 8, 2011 at 9:31 AM