PPP poll: Trump within six points of Romney in … New Hampshire

posted at 5:02 pm on April 5, 2011 by Allahpundit

I’ll be shocked if he runs, no matter what Bernie Goldberg says, but “Trump vs. Anyone” hypotheticals are so much fun that I’m practically obliged to blog them.

If Trump actually run 21% of New Hampshire GOP voters say they’d vote for him, compared to 27% for Romney. The key to Trump’s relatively strong showing? He does well with birthers and Tea Partiers, two groups he has seemed to actively court with his public comments of late. 42% of primary voters firmly say they do not believe Barack Obama was born in the United States to 35% who believe that he was and 23% who aren’t sure. Trump leads Romney 22-21 with the birther crowd, but Romney holds the overall lead because he’s up by a much wider margin with the folks who dismiss the birther theory.

Trump also leads Romney 23-21 with the Republican primary voters who consider themselves to be Tea Party members but that’s only 30% of the electorate and Romney’s up by a good margin with the folks who don’t identify with that movement…

There is one huge warning sign for Romney in this poll despite the leads he posts in every permutation though: 61% of primary voters say they would not be willing to vote for someone who supported a bill at the state level mandating that people have health insurance. In 5 of the 6 horse race questions we asked Romney still leads with those voters, suggesting that most Republicans who follow politics and the 2012 race only casually are not really aware of ‘Romneycare.’ It’s safe to say they’ll be well aware of it 9 months from now, and it’s going to be interesting to see if Romney can sustain his support once he’s been endlessly bashed over the head with it.

Needless to say, assuming it’s true, that last bit is incredibly ominous for Romney. No wonder Pawlenty’s not sweating being in single digits nationally. As for Trump’s numbers, it’s surprising that Hampshire tea partiers would line up behind him when offered Gingrich and Palin as alternatives. (They finish with 12 and nine percent, respectively, with Michele Bachmann at three percent.) Take your pick of what that might mean: (a) Tea partiers are dissatisfied with the entire field, even the “true conservative” contingent, and are looking for the ultimate “outsider” protest vote; (b) name recognition still counts for a lot right now and Trump’s is probably higher than anyone else’s, Palin included; (c) not only is there significant overlap between Birthers and tea partiers, but Birtherism weighs unusually heavily in their votes. That seems like the obvious conclusion given Trump’s Birther media whirlwind lately, but here’s an unexpected result from the crosstabs: Although Trump leads among Birthers, Romney’s favorable rating among them is actually way higher than Trump’s is (and higher than it is among non-Birthers).


What may be true is that hardcore Birthers are willing to vote for a guy who takes the lead on their pet issue even if on balance they like him less than the competition. So yeah, that might get Trump to 20 percent in a state like New Hampshire that favors, ahem, “mavericks” and has plenty of independent voters willing to scramble the conventional wisdom. But look at his numbers among non-Birthers, and consider the fact that if many Republican voters are still so ill-informed that they don’t yet know about RomneyCare, they surely have no clue about Trump’s past as a thrice-married formerly pro-choice independent who once described himself as “very liberal when it comes to health care.” That’s why I think he won’t run — which of the early states would he contend in besides New Hampshire? — and why, if he did, it’d probably end up helping Romney (or whoever emerges as the “centrist” candidate) for the same reason that a Bachmann run would. The more people there are in the race to appeal to tea partiers and/or Birthers, the more that vote splits and the fewer votes Romney needs from the center to win. Only by actually beating Romney in New Hampshire and effectively destroying his candidacy before it starts would a Trump run help “true conservatives.” Anyone seriously see that happening?


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It shows he had good judgement on it and called it correctly from the beginning. Heck, he could run as an “anti-war” candidate, lol///

Aslans Girl on April 5, 2011 at 6:30 PM

Maybe it’s not too late. Some Hillary supporters swear that Barack’s famous anti-Iraq speech never happened, at least not when he and his supporters claim it did. They say it was an Axelrod astroturf operation to fool lefties into believing Obama had been right all along.

flyfisher on April 5, 2011 at 6:40 PM

I understand what you are saying, but I don’t understand just a 5% margin of error. Sorry don’t buy it.

idesign on April 5, 2011 at 6:19 PM

I’m not saying that PPP has any credibility with me personally. But proceudarly, it has more to do with how they pick the participants than it has to do with the size of the sample.

For instance, by using Google’s polling service, Patrick Ishmael has ruled out everyone from the poll who doesn’t have internet access, or who can not, for whatever reason, access Google websites. That skews the demographics, and thus renders the percentages moot from a scientific standpoint. They may or may not be accurate, but they are not “scientific.”

As the margin of error goes, a sample size of 500 might give you a margin of error of +/- 3%, while a sample size of 300 might give you a margin of error of +/- 5%. Usually the sample size is somewhere in between 300-500 (as was the case in this particular poll) so they can tweak the demographics if they need to somehow.

Once again, this is not a defense of PPP or any other polling firm. This is just how it’s done, procedure-wise. All the time. There’s nothing at all unusual about a 380-odd-some sample size.

And I still think PPP is full of sh!t. They lost their credibility with me long before they polled on Charlie Sheen as a presidential contender.

gryphon202 on April 5, 2011 at 6:41 PM

I’d rather have a “Trump is out for Trump (therefore wanting America to succeed)” than a “Soros who’s out for Soros (therefore wanting America to fail)”.

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on April 5, 2011 at 6:41 PM

Businessmen cannot make $$ in a failed and bankrupt America. Trump being for Trump means that he’s actually for all of us Americans.

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on April 5, 2011 at 6:38 PM

Businessmen can too make money in a failed and bankrupt America. Ask Soros about that.

gryphon202 on April 5, 2011 at 6:44 PM

And I’m not sold on Trump being for all Americans. Not after some of the sh!t he’s pulled in New York City.

gryphon202 on April 5, 2011 at 6:45 PM

Can’t wait for the Prime Time televised live Cabinet meetings…and hear those famous words:

“You’re fired!”

President for Life.

BobMbx on April 5, 2011 at 6:51 PM

Candidate “X” is out for “X” applies to each and every politician.

maverick muse on April 5, 2011 at 6:55 PM

Hmm…since Palin supporters are derided as “Palinistas,” “Palians,” “Palinbots,” and such, I think I should coin a new term for Trump’s supporters. How about…

“Trump Chumps”

What do you guys think?

gryphon202 on April 5, 2011 at 6:00 PM

Is “people too stupid to be allowed near a voting booth” too long a phrase?

Hollowpoint on April 5, 2011 at 6:57 PM

Is “people too stupid to be allowed near a voting booth” too long a phrase?

Hollowpoint on April 5, 2011 at 6:57 PM

Well that’s what I was thinking, but I need something with a little more oomph if it’s going to coalesce into a meme. ;)

gryphon202 on April 5, 2011 at 6:58 PM

Seriously… that there are more than 2% who would even consider Trump as a viable candidate (I’ll give the 2% some slack as being motivated by entertainment value) makes me thing that the movie “Idiocrisy” was an accurate portrayal of the future.

Republican nominee Donald Trump. If that sentence doesn’t offend your sensibilities, turn off the reality TV show you’re watching, turn in your voting card and seek professional help.

Hollowpoint on April 5, 2011 at 7:01 PM

Candidate “X” is out for “X” applies to each and every politician.

maverick muse on April 5, 2011 at 6:55 PM

Look at Trump’s history in NYC alone, and you’ll see it applies in a rather singular way to him.

gryphon202 on April 5, 2011 at 7:08 PM

Hollowpoint on April 5, 2011 at 7:01 PM

Giving yourself advice.

Trump isn’t my choice for potus, btw.

However, I’d rather support Trump than Romney, and Obama’s birth has nothing to do with that preference. Neither of them are my choice for potus.

maverick muse on April 5, 2011 at 7:09 PM

Republican nominee Donald Trump. If that sentence doesn’t offend your sensibilities, turn off the reality TV show you’re watching, turn in your voting card and seek professional help.

Hollowpoint on April 5, 2011 at 7:01 PM

How many people were offended by the Palins’ decision to do SPAK, but are just fine with Donald “You’re Fired!” Trump? Sad.

gryphon202 on April 5, 2011 at 7:09 PM

gryphon202 on April 5, 2011 at 7:08 PM

I’m looking at your comments which prove that assessment “X is for X” applies particularly in your direction.

maverick muse on April 5, 2011 at 7:10 PM

If Trump can damage Obama before a real candidate takes the lead, let him flail at the Boy King.

Go Donald!

profitsbeard on April 5, 2011 at 7:13 PM

I’m looking at your comments which prove that assessment “X is for X” applies particularly in your direction.

maverick muse on April 5, 2011 at 7:10 PM

I thought I posted it in a link earlier. But let me quote it out here for you since you seem to have a hard time following links:

Several weeks ago, the City of New York quietly closed the northbound 72nd street exit ramp from the Henry Hudson Parkway, the highway that runs along Manhattan’s west side. The closure was first billed as temporary but is now being billed as permanent.

The city’s decision to close this exit ramp was to assist Donald Trump and his backers with making his multiple residential buildings directly south of the exit appear to be part of the affluent and more desireable Riverside Park area to the north. The city wants to assist Donald Trump with the fiction that these buildings are part of a very pleasant neighborhood community by removing the traffic that flowed between the two.

Not only does this exit ramp closure not build a fiction, but it risks lives. A large part of New York’s Upper West Side is now virtually inaccessible to emergency vehicles that would be coming from other parts of the city in an emergency and that would otherwise need to exit at the 72nd street location. This area includes Lincoln Center, parts of Broadway, a large part of Central Park and ABC’s headquarters. If New York didn’t realize earlier how important it is that emergency vehicles can access large areas, something like yesterday’s incident in Minneapolis should remind us.

Additionally, the closure of the exit ramp has created unbearable congestion in the area 7 blocks north of the ramp which has now become the closest exit. This area, which used to be a quiet New York City neighborhood is now overrun with cars racing through it to get back to the larger area where they had originally sought to exit.

From a forum post dated August 2, 2007. Now if you can convince me that Sarah Palin, or any other would-be candidate, would expect people to vote for them after doing something that foolish and ill-considered, suit yourself. If you want to try and convince yourself that this isn’t typical of Trump’s behavior, I can come up with several other examples at least this egregious, but as I have said before, he belongs nowhere near the White House in any official capacity.

gryphon202 on April 5, 2011 at 7:28 PM

Trump would be goofy but anything is better than the current total-moron. And I would like to see Trump win the early primaries just so’s Romney can be stopped from running for president. Get him back in the box he sleeps in between elections. He cannot be president. I just wish he would stop running.

curved space on April 5, 2011 at 8:31 PM

I think Trumps main goal is just to try and fire up the pro-business republican base, work on eroding the anti-business Obama base….and drum up some really good free publicity for Trump Indistries, and the apprentice. By latching onto the birther issue he stands to possibly gain some viewers who previously have boycotted NBC.

Koa on April 5, 2011 at 8:42 PM

What may be true is that hardcore Birthers are willing to vote for a guy who takes the lead on their pet issue even if on balance they like him less than the competition.

Yes. ‘Never vote RINO’ has grown an ‘except for’ tumor.

rukiddingme on April 5, 2011 at 9:35 PM

I don’t get the impression that he himself is really serious… I could see one or two of his ideas being picked up by others but we aren’t that desperate…. right?

lexhamfox on April 5, 2011 at 11:24 PM

I have no use for Trump. The only thing good about him is that he is pointing out that the Emperor has no clothes. (Credentials.)

Other than that, he can just go away.

DiogenesLamp on April 6, 2011 at 9:56 AM

Trump is scary. He rants and you run for cover. (on whatever subject he talks). Then the topper was his love note to Pelosi – “Hey Nancy, congrats, you are the best”….Donald.

Skrew him and the white horse he rode in on. The guy is a nut case and massively egocentric. Has NO concept of being presidential. Just a talking, shouting big shot that loves himself. Please, NO Trump.

highninside on April 6, 2011 at 6:10 PM

Trump Wears Meredith Vieira Like A Snowshoe On Birther Issue!

http://conservativeblogscentral.blogspot.com/2011/04/trump-wears-meredith-vieira-like.html

Nearly Nobody on April 7, 2011 at 4:46 PM

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