Hot Air April primary results: And the winner is…

posted at 8:00 pm on April 4, 2011 by Patrick Ishmael

After casting almost 7,000 total ballots — a new high — Hot Air readers have again made Sarah Palin their top choice for the Republican nomination for President. Palin took 33% of the vote, followed by Herman Cain at 11%, Mitt Romney also at 11%, Tim Pawlenty at 9%, and Rand Paul with 7%, only a few dozen votes ahead of Michele Bachmann.

Remarkably, despite the big volume differences in our monthly polls, the percentage breakdown from month to month hasn’t moved around wildly, with 1.) distinct trends developing for some candidates and 2.) generally reasonable voter realignments as candidates enter and exit the field.

Notable:

  1. This is the first time Chris Christie has not been featured in the Presidential question.
  2. Christie’s votes appear to have been spread fairly widely. Of the 574 voters that explicitly said they’d formerly backed Christie, the redistribution went as follows:
  3. This is the first time Mitt Romney has not received 6% of the vote or finished in 5th place. This month, he nearly doubled his vote and climbed two positions into third. Significant jump.
  4. Rand Paul votes are as real as any other candidate’s in the survey. He appears to be competitive.
  5. Donald Trump made a bit of a jump from March. In March, he took 1% of the vote; in April, he’s taken 4% of the vote, which is roughly equal to the combined April vote totals of Mike Huckabee, Jon Huntsman, and Newt Gingrich.

The Vice Presidential race has tightened considerably. Allen West continues to lead the pack at 19%, but with a reduced lead over Marco Rubio, Bachmann, Paul Ryan, and Cain.

The monthly chart makes this tightening a bit clearer.

With a larger number of participants, it’s not surprising we also got a larger number of readers interested in commenting on the site. Last time, nearly 700 people indicated they wanted to join the site. This time, nearly 1800 readers indicated they wanted to comment at Hot Air; like last time, if I find out when this is going to happen and you gave me your email, I’ll definitely try to give you an early heads up. (If you’d like to pass along your email, I’ve left the form open. Fill it out with your email address included, and if you’ve already voted once before, please indicate that as well so I know it’s not intended to be a double-vote.)

How’s the President doing with regard to Libya? Not good. (But it does make for an elegant graph, I must say.)

What do readers think we ought to be doing in Libya? There was one very popular answer.

And the survey’s demographics:

As you can imagine, you can crunch these numbers a bunch of different ways: how conservatives who vote Palin think about Libya, how libertarians who vote Romney feel about Obama, etc. If you’re interested in a specific situation, holler at me over on Twitter and I’ll try to help you out.

Most interesting tidbit this month for me? If Palin decides to forgo running for President, her voters (the ones that responded to the “second choice” question, anyway) say they will vote for the following:

Food for thought. Again, if you have questions or comments, I’m on Twitter.

This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
To see the comments on the original post, look here.


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You predicted something right once and therefore cannot be challenged?

powerpro on April 5, 2011 at 1:20 AM

More than once. But you’d know that if you have been around here as long as I have.

csdeven on April 5, 2011 at 11:55 AM

Sarah is wonderful, but personally I couldn’t take four years of her shrill voice. Would she run for Veep again on a Cain ticket? My guess is that she is going to be upstaged by Michelle—Bachman, that is.
MrLynn on April 5, 2011 at 12:27 AM

MORON!!

So if somebody has a superficial trait to go along with her other good qualities you’d forsake them

don’t need your help when it’s founded on trivialities

Sonosam on April 5, 2011 at 12:00 PM

kim roy on April 5, 2011 at 2:24 AM

Just like with McCain, I will support the rep nominee. But until then I will do everything I can to completely vet Palin and the rest of the candidates during the primary process.

The problem at Hot Air is that most Palinistas think the country will just accept Palin if they only knew what the Palinistas know.

The independents are morons and will judge Sarah on her speaking style etc. She cannot win a general against Obama. Unless Obama completely self-destructs with the indies. He has two years to repair the damage he has done. 2 years is an eternity with the American voter….who just happens to have a memory as long as the next news cycle.

csdeven on April 5, 2011 at 12:01 PM

Crr6

going to law school to enhance her negatives and if she passes she will use that degree along with her back to rope a well earning dummy

that’s about right

Sonosam on April 5, 2011 at 12:03 PM

I simply have the pulse of America, and they will not support Palin. Those reasons are varied and extensive.

csdeven on April 5, 2011 at 11:53 AM

So giving up on the candidate we like is your answer?
The media could take & demonize every single person we put up against Obama.
Far as I know, Reagan didn’t win the 1st time around.
So I guess he shoulda quit.
And so since the media has demonized Palin effictively, that means she can never get elected.
So just give up & put who up?
I mean I’m all for decent options.
Palin is only one of my options.
But you can’t awlays play the game by what the enemy throws down.

Badger40 on April 5, 2011 at 12:05 PM

csdeven on April 5, 2011 at 12:01 PM

obama is completely beatable and that is why the Rs are busy trying to abort her too

the beltway likes status quo and that, SP is not

Sonosam on April 5, 2011 at 12:06 PM

Badger40 on April 5, 2011 at 12:05 PM

The media spin on Sarah has nothing to do with it. I understand what the indies are looking for and Sarah isn’t it.

csdeven on April 5, 2011 at 12:12 PM

Sonosam on April 5, 2011 at 12:06 PM

He surly is beatable….with the right candidate. Sarah is not that candidate. I know the right one when he/she comes along.

csdeven on April 5, 2011 at 12:14 PM

Sonosam on April 5, 2011 at 12:06 PM
He surly is beatable….with the right candidate. Sarah is not that candidate. I know the right one when he/she comes along.
csdeven on April 5, 2011 at 12:14 PM

that’s funny,

I feel the same way almost except I’m certain that SP would flatten the empty suit in debates

wouldn’t be so hard since he is so wrong and SP is the only pol so far with a killer instinct

for too long I have seen the commie party vulnerable on the ropes only to be let off the ropes by similarly slovenly statist “righties”

I want someone who will take the “kill shot” with obama and his commie loons

i don’t expect that from the rest of the field

Sonosam on April 5, 2011 at 12:22 PM

Let us all bow down to the all-knowing csdeven.

Please be sure to tell us who the “right one” is as soon as you find out so we can all get behind him.

Do you have any time frame on when this revelation might occur?

What an arrogant fool.

chief on April 5, 2011 at 12:32 PM

People who criticize Palin for not attracting “indies” are making one big mistake.

INDEPENDENT voters like Republicans and Democrats are NOT monolithic. They also are made up of liberals, moderates and conservatives.

Guess what folks: in 2006 independent conservatives only comprised 28% of all independents. Now it is up to 36%. In 2006 moderates comprised 46% of all INDEPENDENTS. In 2010 it was down to 41%. That’s a 13 point swing in 4 years.

Moral of the story: Sarah Palin will play to the 36% of INDEPENDENTS who are conservative and the slice of the independents who call themselves socially moderate but are fiscal conservatives. There certainly is a lot of wiggle room there.

Oh one other thing about independents in a Rasmussen poll on Sept 20, 2010 the question asked was:

Who best represents your views? Palin or Obama

Here are the results overall and among INDEPENDENTS:

PALIN OBAMA
OVERALL 52 40

INDEPENDENTS 59 27

technopeasant on April 5, 2011 at 12:45 PM

It’s interesting to watch the Palin supporters here. Thin skins seem to be in abundance. If you dare to advise that you are not supporting Palin, or that you think she is unelectable, you get labeled a moron, or clueless, or an idiot.

I don’t believe anyone here who didn’t vote for Palin as their choice for Prez is out to convince the NBP crowd to change their mind. In fact, I’m pretty certain that we’re all well aware that’s not going to happen. If you are a Palin supporter, you are steadfastly so, and that’s admirable. Most of us know message boards are not a serious place for mind-changing anyway.

But please stop trying to convince the rest of us who didn’t vote for her that we’re in desperate need of seeing the light, that we just don’t understand, or that we’re not “true” conservatives. I am a true conservative. I live in heavy-red flyover country (Springfield, MO). When McCain was getting ready to choose his VP, I prayed for Palin to get it, as I thought she was the best choice. I rejoiced when it happened. I thought her convention speech was killer. I voted for her ticket.

However, my opinion of her has diminished over time, and that has nothing to do with the MSM. I don’t believe she’s the least bit culpable for the deaths in AZ. I don’t think that Trig isn’t hers. That stuff is ridiculous. But her gaffes are her gaffes, she owns them. Her style is adored by many conservatives, but nowhere near a significant portion of the general populace. It doesn’t matter if the MSM has been unfair to her; that’s how it is. They’re unfair to any conservative, but especially her because they see her as W with lipstick, and her “squirmishes” don’t help. They will be on her like white on rice, because she’s easy pickings. Yes, more so than the other candidates simply because she’s been so prominent for the last 3 years. Again, that’s just how it is.

Does that mean if she won the nomination I wouldn’t vote for her? Of course not. But just because I won’t vote for her in the primary doesn’t mean I’m the enemy, nor is anybody else here who is indicating they won’t do the same because they feel she’s too polarizing and unelectable. That’s not hate. That’s not bashing. That’s simply an opinion given by a fellow conservative, and we are not the enemy.

You won the poll. No need to be so defensive here. To harken back to earlier — you’re not changing any minds. To be vitriolic against other nominees’ supporters for supporting them and not Palin is harmful because if Palin does run and get the nomination, you’re going to need those other nominees’ supporters for votes. Try not alienating them now. We need all our soldiers for battle in 2012 to unseat the danger currently occupying the White House.

zauriel on April 5, 2011 at 12:50 PM

zauriel on April 5, 2011 at 12:50 PM

And where is all your concern for those who constantly denagrate Palin supporters?

kingsjester on April 5, 2011 at 12:56 PM

Wow, look at all the idiots getting wee weed up over a dumb PPP poll that had Romney/trump in front. Did you know they only interviewed 384 people w/a +/- of 5%. Are you kidding me, the results are trash. Talk about a narrative poll. That means this poll has Romney getting 104 votes and Trump getting 80 votes w/a 5% +/- (10 point swing).

Trash on fools….

Palin 2012/2016

idesign on April 5, 2011 at 1:00 PM

LOL…can I revote? I forgot about Rubio. Yeah I know his name was right there!

cappy718 on April 5, 2011 at 1:04 PM

Chalk up another win for Sarah. Predicable and predicted. She is crushing the opposition here and in every other online poll I’ve seen. At Ace’s, despite frequent outbreaks of PDS among the bloggers, she remains steady at 46% with all others splitting the scraps.

Want a Unity Ticket? Palin + Unameit.

james23 on April 5, 2011 at 1:06 PM

To harken back to earlier — you’re not changing any minds. To be vitriolic against other nominees’ Palin’s supporters for supporting them her and not Palin another nominee is harmful because if Palin another nominee does run and get the nomination, you’re going to need those other nominees’ Palin supporters for votes. Try not alienating them now. We need all our soldiers for battle in 2012 to unseat the danger currently occupying the White House.

zauriel on April 5, 2011 at 12:50 PM

This works both ways.

Kataklysmic on April 5, 2011 at 1:09 PM

chief on April 5, 2011 at 12:32 PM

I have a track record of being right. Just ask the ?fred?, Rudy, and Huckabigot fans.

Choke on the facts @ss-clown.

csdeven on April 5, 2011 at 1:10 PM

However, my opinion of her has diminished over time, and that has nothing to do with the MSM.

zauriel on April 5, 2011 at 12:50 PM

Palin has withstood attacks from the left and media that would have withered all but the strongest. The fact that Palin has a strong, close family that supports her has a lot to do with her ability to withstand the onslaught.

We have yet to see how other potential candidates can withstand the combined media/left attacks.

The fact that Palin has chosen to fight for Amercia in the face of these attacks on her family and herself has only increased my admiration for her.

darwin on April 5, 2011 at 1:11 PM

OMG why do so many people keep voting for Pali?. Her family members are reality TV stars, she sounds like an idiot in an interview and has zero leadership skills. I feel sorry for the treatment she gets in the media but that’s going to be her biggest liability in a general election. She has ZERO chance of beating Obama. It is never going to happen!!! Accept it!!

There must be a ton of DNC plants on this site that are actively promoting her to discredit the conservative moment.

phadedjaded on April 5, 2011 at 1:13 PM

OMG why do so many people keep voting for Pali?.

phadedjaded on April 5, 2011 at 1:13 PM

Because they recognize something you obviously can’t?

darwin on April 5, 2011 at 1:15 PM

darwin on April 5, 2011 at 1:11 PM

Yes, but you see the fact that she mispronounced “skirmish” disqualifies her. One has to be gaffe free like Obama, Biden, and those other than Palin in the GOP field to be considered a serious candidate. /

Kataklysmic on April 5, 2011 at 1:15 PM

And where is all your concern for those who constantly denagrate Palin supporters?

kingsjester on April 5, 2011 at 12:56 PM

Obviously, per the poll (and in simply viewing the comments) there are a lot more Palin supporters here than not. I don’t see much denigration of the actual Palin supporters simply for supporting Palin here (and by here I mean this specific thread); I see people advising that they’re not voting for Palin in the primary, explaining why, and then getting called names for it when they don’t agree with the Palin fans’ assertions that they’re completely wrong.

zauriel on April 5, 2011 at 1:21 PM

The fact that Palin has chosen to fight for Amercia in the face of these attacks on her family and herself has only increased my admiration for her.

darwin on April 5, 2011 at 1:11 PM

I never said I didn’t admire Palin. I do. However, admiration doesn’t determine my primary vote.

zauriel on April 5, 2011 at 1:27 PM

This works both ways.

Kataklysmic on April 5, 2011 at 1:09 PM

“Fight fire with fire” is not a successful tactic in this dojo.

Kill ‘em with kindness.

zauriel on April 5, 2011 at 1:35 PM

I don’t see much denigration of the actual Palin supporters simply for supporting Palin here

zauriel on April 5, 2011 at 1:21 PM

Hot Air: Where the delusional reside.

rickyricardo on April 4, 2011 at 8:41 PM

Sure, but your opinion is stupid.

crr6 on April 5, 2011 at 1:18 AM

Why does HA bother with this crap? Everyone knows this place is infested with Palin nuts. Braindead types who actually think a) the dolt will be POTUS, and b) even worse, she SHOULD be POTUS. Both ideas are absolutely ridiculous.

Meredith on April 5, 2011 at 2:14 AM

There must be a ton of DNC plants on this site that are actively promoting her to discredit the conservative moment.

phadedjaded on April 5, 2011 at 1:13 PM

In case you missed these gems.

Kataklysmic on April 5, 2011 at 1:41 PM

She has ZERO chance of beating Obama. It is never going to happen!!! Accept it!!

phadedjaded on April 5, 2011 at 1:13 PM

Wow, very well reasoned. So persuasive! My rebuttal follows:

We win. You lose. Deal with it.

james23 on April 5, 2011 at 2:06 PM

The media spin on Sarah has nothing to do with it. I understand what the indies are looking for and Sarah isn’t it.

csdeven on April 5, 2011 at 12:12 PM

So people’s perception of Sarah Palin has not been influenced by media coverage by her at all?
Please tell me what the Indies are looking for in a candidate. I’m sure your analysis fits every Indy out there.
Bcs Indys are all a close knit group, all believing in & wanting the same things out of a candidate, rather than Right or Left persuasions.
Bcs I always had the impression that Indies are people who are stuck in the middle & like eating the gravy, but know that eating the gravy is wrong.
And my perception of their morals is that they are usually equivocaters of the nth degree.
Basically the person who either cannot make a decision to save their own lives, or have their decision on sale to the highest bidder.

Badger40 on April 5, 2011 at 2:31 PM

This works both ways.
Kataklysmic on April 5, 2011 at 1:09 PM
“Fight fire with fire” is not a successful tactic in this dojo.
Kill ‘em with kindness.
zauriel on April 5, 2011 at 1:35 PM

“Squish”

thank you no

Sonosam on April 5, 2011 at 2:51 PM

The Palin detractors are particularly arrogant today. “Palin is guaranteed to lose! I’m smart enough to see it and you’re not! I know what independents want! No I can’t tell you who independents might tolerate, but Sarah Palin absolutely isn’t it! Red states all over the country will turn midnight blue if Palin is the nominee! Get over it, you thin-skinned Palin freaks!”

Well. I’m certainly persuaded. Let’s kick Palin off the stage and nominate some unknown guy who won’t p_ss off the independents by challenging Obama. That way, those independents whose opinions of Sarah Palin are now set in stone might actually look this new person over before the media slimes him and paints him as goofy and incompetent and unqualified so that we can actually defeat Obama.

/sarc

Aitch748 on April 5, 2011 at 3:11 PM

Non-Palinic observations:

Donald Trump could become the Ross Perot of 2012. Even without running as an independent, he could wreck the primaries and destroy the eventual nominee of any chance against Obambi.

If we weren’t stuck with this insane primary system, the Republicans would get together in the traditional smoke-filled room and nominate John Boehner for President. And it would be a terrific choice, maybe better than any of the above.

/Mr Lynn

MrLynn on April 5, 2011 at 3:24 PM

If we weren’t stuck with this insane primary system, the Republicans would get together in the traditional smoke-filled room and nominate John Boehner for President. And it would be a terrific choice, maybe better than any of the above.

/Mr Lynn

MrLynn on April 5, 2011 at 3:24 PM

Yeah, who needs those pesky voters ruining everything. We should just let our betters make the choice for us. /

Kataklysmic on April 5, 2011 at 3:27 PM

It’s Sarah Palin vs. Anybody But Palin, and currently, Palin is stomping ABP.

bitsy on April 5, 2011 at 3:46 PM

Badger40 on April 5, 2011 at 2:31 PM

You answer your own question. The indies are spineless lemmings, ready to walk off a cliff to convince themselves that they are reasonable.

That is the truth, and no amount of Sarah Palin press will derail them. So, Sarah either becomes an Obama type politician, or she acts herself and fails.

csdeven on April 5, 2011 at 4:25 PM

That is the truth, and no amount of Sarah Palin press will derail them. So, Sarah either becomes an Obama type politician, or she acts herself and fails.

csdeven on April 5, 2011 at 4:25 PM

I find it very ironic that the people making pronouncements like this are often the same ones who are accusing Palin’s supporters of “arrogance.”

Well how’s this for truth, douchebag? Palin’s principles harmonize with my own, and if I have the opportunity to, I intend to vote for her in the primaries. If enough people feel the way you do about Sarah Palin to put Obama back in office, then our whole God-forsaken nation deserves another four years of this administration!

gryphon202 on April 5, 2011 at 4:32 PM

Sarah is wonderful, but personally I couldn’t take four years of her shrill voice. Would she run for Veep again on a Cain ticket? My guess is that she is going to be upstaged by Michelle—Bachman, that is.
MrLynn on April 5, 2011 at 12:27 AM

An shrill, squeaky voice did not stop Abraham Lincoln.

Jocundus on April 5, 2011 at 5:03 PM

You won the poll. No need to be so defensive here. To harken back to earlier — you’re not changing any minds. To be vitriolic against other nominees’ supporters for supporting them and not Palin is harmful because if Palin does run and get the nomination, you’re going to need those other nominees’ supporters for votes. Try not alienating them now. We need all our soldiers for battle in 2012 to unseat the danger currently occupying the White House.

zauriel on April 5, 2011 at 12:50 PM

Alienating trolls is not counter productive; it is sometimes
lots of fun!

Amjean on April 5, 2011 at 5:26 PM

Sarah is wonderful, but personally I couldn’t take four years of her shrill voice. Would she run for Veep again on a Cain ticket? My guess is that she is going to be upstaged by Michelle—Bachman, that is.
MrLynn on April 5, 2011 at 12:27 AM

Have you heard any of her speeches lately? She must be
working with a voice coach because she sounds pretty good.

Cain is dynamic; unfortunately, has no political experience.
Palin is strong, also more dynamic than Cain and knows how
to work with both sides to get things done. Her record
proves it. Palin has also worked against corruption; Cain
has no experience in that regard.

Michelle Bauchmann – talk about shrill voice! A conservive, however, unfortunately a “poor man’s” version
of Palin. The second Palin enters the race it will be
“by, by MB!”

Let’s go with the real deal!

Amjean on April 5, 2011 at 5:31 PM

When Palin finally announces that she is not running in 2012, the tin foil unleashed by her groupies will be very entertaining.

Palin knows she can’t win anything, and when one is pulling in the cash she does, who cares? Just keep cashing in. Only a fool would do otherwise.

Moesart on April 5, 2011 at 6:16 PM

When Palin finally announces that she is not running in 2012, the tin foil unleashed by her groupies will be very entertaining.

Moesart on April 5, 2011 at 6:16 PM

What is your prediction for how the Palin detractors will react if she announces that she is running?

Kataklysmic on April 5, 2011 at 6:21 PM

Well, there’s always 2016…

Tzetzes on April 5, 2011 at 6:27 PM

When Palin finally announces that she is not running in 2012, the tin foil unleashed by her groupies will be very entertaining.
Palin knows she can’t win anything, and when one is pulling in the cash she does, who cares? Just keep cashing in. Only a fool would do otherwise.
Moesart on April 5, 2011 at 6:16 PM

From the shallow, stagnant part of the pool

Sonosam on April 5, 2011 at 6:42 PM

An shrill, squeaky voice did not stop Abraham Lincoln.

Jocundus on April 5, 2011 at 5:03 PM

Good point. And I don’t mind Sarah’s voice when she’s calm, one on one. It’s her stump speeches before audiences where she seems to get wound up to a grating pitch.

/Mr Lynn

MrLynn on April 6, 2011 at 12:43 PM

Yeah, who needs those pesky voters ruining everything. We should just let our betters make the choice for us. /

Kataklysmic on April 5, 2011 at 3:27 PM

The growth of the primary system since the 1950s has resulted in the Perpetual Campaign, wearying to everyone, especially candidates, except the 24-hour cable news channels, which need the constant horse race for something to talk about. It has also completely demolished the role and point of the party conventions, and forestalled the possibility of draft candidates. I don’t think the virtues of primaries, many woefully flawed, overshadow these losses.

/Mr Lynn

MrLynn on April 6, 2011 at 12:51 PM

That last graph pretty clearly refutes the conventional wisdom that Palin and Huckabee are competing for the same voting niche: he doesn’t do too great with her would-be voters, does he? Imagine that: Palin voters care about MORE than her religious convictions (if they care at all). You’ll never find a liberal talking head admitting it, though.

Animator Girl on April 6, 2011 at 9:47 PM

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