U.S. officials: A rebel victory is now the least likely way that Qaddafi will leave power

posted at 8:59 pm on April 1, 2011 by Allahpundit

Well … yes, we’ve known that for awhile now, haven’t we? If you read the LA Times story in Headlines this morning about rebel morale starting to crumble (“Kadafi is too strong for us, with too many heavy weapons”), you’d know how unlikely a march to Tripoli has become. Anyway, the bad news: Our strategy now seems to be aimed at achieving … a stalemate, essentially. By our own admission, the rebels probably can’t knock Qaddafi out even with NATO air support targeting the regime’s armor and artillery. So instead of taking him down, the plan appears to be to convince him and his inner circle that they’ll never regain total control over the country and therefore might as well give up. The best they can hope for is a fluid stalemate, with NATO protecting Benghazi from the air while towns like Misurata and Ras Lanuf and Ajdabiya change hands periodically. Meanwhile, regime officials will live in fear of being killed by airstrikes and sanctions will cut them off from their oil riches. That’s no way to exist when you’re used to absolute power. So why not quit? What fun is an endless stalemate? That’s our strategy.

The good news: David Brooks will have you know that Reinhold Niebuhr very much would have approved of this mission. So we’ve got that going for us.

Though the TV images of rebels are understandably what the media has been focused on, US government officials tell ABC News that a military victory by the rebels is the least likely of three paths to Gadhafi stepping down.

The first and probably the most likely path would be is Gadhafi stepping down on his own, officials say, brought into exile with promises of immunity from prosecution, access to funds, a potentially cushy life. It would be politically difficult for the Obama adminstration to be part of such a deal, but Obama administration officials haven’t ruled out the possibility of a “soft landing” for Gadhafi…

Officials say there are more indications this week that Gahdafi’s inner circle is “rattled and skittish,” as one official put it…

This leads us to the second most likely path of Gadhafi’s exit – his being removed – by those around him, jailed, shoved into a plane, carried out on his feet or in a bag.

The Telegraph’s already got a list of officials who are expected to defect soon, so yeah, collapsing the regime by slowly removing its support beams is possible. Qaddafi himself is allegedly a “wreck,” according to recent defector Musa Kusa, although who knows if that’s true or just something he’s telling his new British custodians. One question, though: If things inside Qaddafiland are really so fragile, why didn’t they accept the rebels’ offer of a conditional ceasefire this morning? The regime could have used that as a breather to take stock of its remaining inner circle, resupply itself with mercenaries, and maybe cool things off to the point where NATO starts to slow down operations and becomes reluctant to dive back in. The rebels would be training in the meantime, but they’re not going to learn anything in a month or two that will thwart the next Qaddafi offensive. Instead, the regime responded this way:

“They are asking us to withdraw from our own cities and open our cities to people, who are holding up arms, who are tribal, violent, no unified leadership, al Qaeda links, and no one knows who they are. If this is not mad, then I don’t know what it is,” he said. “We will not leave our cities. We will not stop protecting our civilians.”

Ibrahim added that the Libyan government is ready for peace.

Sources close to Gadhafi told CNN that political solutions are still possible but that the Libyan leader would relinquish power only to others within his inner circle

Any transition, they said, would involve Gadhafi’s second son, Saif al-Islam Gadhafi, and for such a transition to take place there would first have to be an end to the fighting.

Needless to say, Qaddafi handing off to Qaddafi Jr isn’t a sustainable solution. You might be able to avoid an insurgency by one side or the other if some sort of unity government featuring regime underlings and rebel leaders was put in place, but after 42 years of totalitarian rule by one Qaddafi, there’s simply no way Libyans are going to risk power in the hands of another. And at the rate we’re going with defections of top officials, we may end up with a scenario where there’s no one left inside the regime to join that government except guys named “Qaddafi.” Which leaves us … where, exactly?

Update: Like I was saying:

Gaddafi’s son Saif has made ‘repeated’ attempts to reach out to British and Italian intelligence officers, it was claimed yesterday.

The moves have raised hopes he is considering betraying his father.

British officials and MI6 officers say they have held ‘several’ conversations with close allies of Gaddafi’s heir over the past three weeks – and have indicated they are prepared to offer the family an exit route.

They sent the stark message that Saif can play no role in the future of Libya.


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WTF?

percysunshine on April 1, 2011 at 9:00 PM

This Liberal Democrat War Plan is
already out doing Carter’s Botched
Helicopter Hostage Rescue in the Iran
iab Desert ClusterF*ck!!

canopfor on April 1, 2011 at 9:02 PM

Ok, ‘WTF’ is the gift that keeps on giving…like the ever ready bunny…chuckle.

percysunshine on April 1, 2011 at 9:03 PM

I said it at Tapper’s and I’ll say it again. If Obama had shown some discipline and not “demanded” Gadhafi step down back when it looked like he might, he wouldn’t be in this tough political spot now. The no-fly zone would have been enough.

MayBee on April 1, 2011 at 9:05 PM

Ruah said yesterday that if Quadaffy quits, expect a media orgasm of unprecedented proportions calling Obama the greatest statesman since (insert Democrat here).

fiatboomer on April 1, 2011 at 9:05 PM

Also, I think murderous dictators aren’t all that enticed by the idea of retiring somewhere, on account of they won’t get to murder anymore.

MayBee on April 1, 2011 at 9:06 PM

So what does it matter who and how many “betray” Gaddafi? Does anyone think anyone is going to do anything about him? The U.S. could walk away tomorrow and no one would care or complain, this is a check mark on the Obama resume that he needed after ignoring the Iranian uprising.

Cindy Munford on April 1, 2011 at 9:06 PM

This continues to get more and more surreal. What a Clusterfark.

DeathB4Tyranny on April 1, 2011 at 9:08 PM

Our strategy now seems to be aimed at achieving … a stalemate, essentially. By our own admission, the rebels probably can’t knock Qaddafi out even with NATO air support targeting the regime’s armor and artillery.
============================================

Its called,the Wisconsin Union Goon/American Taxpayer
Court EmBattled Great Stalemate/StandfOff!!!!

And as one can see,Liberals are good at “Stalemates”,
even the Wisconson Elected Liberals who flee’d to Ill
inois are practicing “Stalemateing”!!(Sarc)

canopfor on April 1, 2011 at 9:08 PM

All I know is that I’m far more interested in regime change here in the US than over in Libya.

trigon on April 1, 2011 at 9:08 PM

I hope this accidentally works out well for us and the Libyan people (whoever they may be)…but I doubt it. Obama is running this show so I would rate the chances of a good outcome for either party at about 0% plus or minus 0.

AUINSC on April 1, 2011 at 9:14 PM

Kusakusa is an awesome creole dish in the right parts of Nawlins.

percysunshine on April 1, 2011 at 9:14 PM

As The Great One, Mark Levin says:

“Ever notice how everything Obama touches turns to crap?”

His perfect record is maintained.

I give him an A+. Levin, that is.

BobMbx on April 1, 2011 at 9:15 PM

We are spending, what, a million dollars or so per cruise missile. Billions on sorties and supplying sorties. For what? What is the goal? What is the end game? Who if anyone are we supporting in Libya?

This is a ridiculous waste of manpower, resources, and the blood of Libyans for no discernible goal. If regime change is the goal then state it publicly, formulate the necessary strategy, and finish the job.

DeathB4Tyranny on April 1, 2011 at 9:16 PM

Wanted: Spooks to Lead Libyan Rabble
March 31 2011
****************

Coming on the heels of administration leaks that the CIA’s special activities division operators (maybe even sheep-dipped CAG kickers) have been spooled up to go put some kind of cerebral guidance system on the herd of cats that is the fighting arm of the Libyan “Transitional National Council,” we saw this report from a tres ballsy Orla Guerin of the BBC from the front lines.(Video)

Holy-quagmire Batman! Are we seriously hitching our Arab Spring wagon to these bozos?

I bet there are a lot of unanswered phone calls to the SAD types who’re giving this one look and saying, “Sorry, I’m gonna sit this one out…” Stand by for a “Plan B” in which Langley calls Blackwater/Xe for some outside help. Would you want to go lead a group of fighters who don’t know which end of an RPG-7 to point at the bad guy?

One things for sure: By the look of these guys’ tactical acumen and organizational skills, I think it’s safe to say this is one group al Qaeda is not involved with.

http://defensetech.org/2011/03/31/wanted-spooks-to-lead-libyan-rabble/
=================

C.I.A. Agents in Libya Aid Airstrikes and Meet Rebels
Published: March 30, 2011
*************************

WASHINGTON — The Central Intelligence Agency has inserted clandestine operatives into Libya to gather intelligence for military airstrikes and to contact and vet the beleaguered rebels battling Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi’s forces, according to American officials.

While President Obama has insisted that no American military ground troops participate in the Libyan campaign, small groups of C.I.A. operatives have been working in Libya for several weeks as part of a shadow force of Westerners that the Obama administration hopes can help bleed Colonel Qaddafi’s military, the officials said.

Representative Mike Rogers, a Michigan Republican who leads the House Intelligence Committee, said Wednesday that he opposed arming the rebels. “We need to understand more about the opposition before I would support passing out guns and advanced weapons to them,” Mr. Rogers said in a statement.

Because the publicly stated goal of the Libyan campaign is not explicitly to overthrow Colonel Qaddafi’s government, the clandestine war now going on is significantly different from the Afghan campaign to drive the Taliban from power in 2001. Back then, American C.I.A. and Special Forces troops worked alongside Afghan militias, armed them and called in airstrikes that paved the rebel advances on strategically important cities like Kabul and Kandahar.

Air Force RC-135 Rivet Joint eavesdropping planes intercept communications from Libyan commanders and troops and relay that information to the Global Hawk, which zooms in on the location of armored forces and determines rough coordinates. The Global Hawk sends the coordinates to analysts at a ground station, who pass the information to command centers for targeting. The command center beams the coordinates to an E-3 Sentry Awacs command-and-control plane, which in turn directs warplanes to their targets.
(More……..)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/31/world/africa/31intel.html?_r=1&hp

canopfor on April 1, 2011 at 9:16 PM

Ruah said yesterday that if Quadaffy quits, expect a media orgasm of unprecedented proportions calling Obama the greatest statesman since Chamberlin.

fiatboomer on April 1, 2011 at 9:05 PM

Peace….peace in our time.

BobMbx on April 1, 2011 at 9:18 PM

DeathB4Tyranny on April 1, 2011 at 9:16 PM

Actually the newer Tomahawks have come down in price to around 575-600K per missile. I guess the cost of the electronic components has been dropping.

Kids will probably be building them from converted X-boxes in a couple of years.

trigon on April 1, 2011 at 9:21 PM

David Brooks is a stupid chikenhawk.

Heckle on April 1, 2011 at 9:24 PM

Initial Libya Mission Complete, Successful, Gates Says
American Forces Press Service
*****************************

WASHINGTON, April 1, 2011 – U.S. aircraft will remain on standby as NATO takes over multilateral operations in Libya and the coalition considers its future role there, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates told a Senate committee yesterday.

U.S. military aircraft are still available to NATO in the next few days until the organization formally takes control of military operations over Libya, Gates told the Senate Armed Services Committee. After that, the U.S. fighter jets will remain on standby in case they are needed again, he said.

Gates and Navy Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, earlier appeared before the House Armed Services Committee in what was a full day of testimony about the U.S. role in Libya.

Coalition forces had to halt air operations over Libya due to bad weather for the past two days, causing rebel forces to retreat from areas they’d gained since operations began March 19, Mullen said.

Gates described the U.S. military mission in Libya as an emergency prompted by Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi’s intent to use his military against civilians protesting for his ouster. Without intervention, he said, the situation would have led to thousands of deaths, hundreds of thousands of refugees and destabilization across North Africa.

************************************************************
“That part of our mission is complete and successful,” Gates said.
************************************************************

More than 20 nations, including several Arab countries, are participating in the NATO coalition — some publicly, some not — in different ways to enforce U.N. Resolution 1973 that allows for the no-fly zone, Mullen said. The coalition, he said, was able to move fast to prevent a disaster because of U.S. relations with those European and Middle Eastern nations.

“No one military, no one nation, can or should take on a mission like this alone,” Mullen said. “This is not only a coalition of the willing — it is a coalition of the able.”
(More……………)

http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=63392
=====================================

Department of Defense
———————

http://www.defense.gov/home/features/2011/0311_libya2/

canopfor on April 1, 2011 at 9:25 PM

Actually the newer Tomahawks have come down in price to around 575-600K per missile. I guess the cost of the electronic components has been dropping.

Kids will probably be building them from converted X-boxes in a couple of years.

trigon on April 1, 2011 at 9:21 PM

I guess they’re being produced in Shanghai now too….only kidding….but I bet some of the components are though.

DeathB4Tyranny on April 1, 2011 at 9:26 PM

The Soetoro regime and the Libyan rebels talking strategy.

Rebar on April 1, 2011 at 9:27 PM

For what? What is the goal?

DeathB4Tyranny on April 1, 2011 at 9:16 PM

Hoping to make Obama appear presidential by November 2012?

malclave on April 1, 2011 at 9:27 PM

. If regime change is the goal then state it publicly, formulate the necessary strategy, and finish the job.

DeathB4Tyranny on April 1, 2011 at 9:16 PM

Good idea, to bad we are nearing bankruptcy and can’t afford to be the super power we once were.

We can’t play if we can’t pay.

Knucklehead on April 1, 2011 at 9:27 PM

David Brooks and Gadaffi should just have a duel. That would be a good way to settle all this.

Heckle on April 1, 2011 at 9:27 PM

He needs a helicopter beanie on his head.

Key West Reader on April 1, 2011 at 9:29 PM

Our military brass have become to Barack Obama as Monica Lewinsky was to Bill Clinton.

Heckle on April 1, 2011 at 9:29 PM

This has been a nice distraction from the growing “Who Is Barry Soetoro?” questions.

SouthernGent on April 1, 2011 at 9:32 PM

David Brooks and Gadaffi should just have a duel. That would be a good way to settle all this.

Heckle on April 1, 2011 at 9:27 PM

Shoot. That’d be like Obama doing a fist bump with Osama.

/Oh, wait…

Key West Reader on April 1, 2011 at 9:32 PM

RUSH: They Are Praying To God In The NYT That Obama ‘Gets Lucky’ on Libya
This entry was posted on March 30, 2011 at 4:29 pm.
****************************************************

http://dailyrushbo.com/rush-they-are-praying-to-god-in-the-nyt-that-obama-gets-lucky-on-libya/

canopfor on April 1, 2011 at 9:32 PM

Rebar on April 1, 2011 at 9:27 PM

Heh. They made more sense than anything I’ve heard so far. I distinctly heard ” Who started this mess? Withdraw!”

a capella on April 1, 2011 at 9:34 PM

Hoping to make Obama appear presidential by November 2012?

malclave on April 1, 2011 at 9:27 PM

Weekend at … eh. Nah. He’ll be stepping aside due to health reasons within 90 days.

/And no, BigChelle won’t be the one knocking the snot out of him

Key West Reader on April 1, 2011 at 9:34 PM

I don’t know really how you can have “victory” no matter WHAT happens at this point.

Knowing Obama, it will be worse no matter

golfmann on April 1, 2011 at 9:35 PM

I’m kinda concerned about that dude that killed the wheel chair guy and got let go to Lybia cause he had prostrate cancer<

Haven't heard how poor guy is doing. Hope a missile didn't land on his head!

If it did and he's a myrtr does a prostrate cancer dude get 72 virgins and they remain virgins?

So far looks like zipppies latest adventure has succeeded in blowing up some ancient aircraft a few rusty ugly battle tanks a couple of goat ropers and a camel or two.

Not bad for 500 Million US dollars.

Maybe Congress should exert its powers and tell zero to stop his grand adventures or they'll get tough and appoint a bipartisan panel or something!

12 can't come soon enough we needs us a wholesale firing of asshats and dingbats!

I'm thinkin Ron Paul and Kookspinach are soundin the most articulate and serious.

Paul/Kookspinach 2012?

dhunter on April 1, 2011 at 9:36 PM

THE US loses to a second rate madman. I guess this is what Barry Soetoro means by CHANGE.

MaiDee on April 1, 2011 at 9:36 PM

Probably go out boots up after a therapeutic workout with his blonde nurse some day down the road.

Southernblogger on April 1, 2011 at 9:38 PM

Ruah said yesterday that if Quadaffy quits, expect a media orgasm of unprecedented proportions calling Obama the greatest statesman since (insert Democrat here).

fiatboomer on April 1, 2011 at 9:05 PM

flatboomer:I think this is it,with MSM Montage!!:)
=====================================================

RUSH: The Obama Doctrine ’2012 Or Bust’
This entry was posted on March 29, 2011 at 6:32 pm.
*****************************************************

http://dailyrushbo.com/rush-the-obama-doctrine-2012-or-bust/

canopfor on April 1, 2011 at 9:39 PM

Wow. Barry lost a war that he started and it only took two weeks.

It’s all good though. You see, Barry is nothing than a skinny punk. A punk that is seen and heard in any school yard basketball court. A punk who starts a fight he cannot finish.

Barry has exposed himself yet again. A weakling punk bully with a big mouth and a big face and big lips and no bite.

He needs to be removed from office, and when he is (and he will be) removed from office before his “time”, America and the World will always refer to him as the disgraced, failed former US Presidunce Barack Obama. Community Organizer. The One who thought he could beat something more than his own tool.

Key West Reader on April 1, 2011 at 9:42 PM

Every time I hear about the great intelligence potential from the defection of Musa Kusa, two words come to mind:

Rudolf Hess.

ss396 on April 1, 2011 at 9:43 PM

Immersing ourselves in the Libyan civil war is NOT going to work out well… at all…

Khun Joe on April 1, 2011 at 9:43 PM

I’m concerned about the terrorist dude Britain let go cause of prostrate cancer. Hope we didn’t drop a million dollar missile on the sick guys head.

If we hit the dude is he a martyr and what does a martyr with prostrate cancer do with 72 virgins, let stay virgins?

So far loooks like Wilie Coyote OBLahBLah has blown up some ancient aircraft, some rusty moldy tanks, a few goat ropers and camel jockeys using 500 million in US dinero>

I’d say zippies grand adventure is costing us big and gainin us nada!

So will congress do its dooty and impeach the bastrid for subjecting US soldiers to the UN and Arab leagues whims without congressional consent?
No that would be racist I’m sure, but I’m takin a second look at Ron Paul and Kookspinach.

These two twilight zoned space aliens are the only ones with a brain on straight over Willie Coyotes illegal escapade!
Ron Paul/Kookspinach 2012?

dhunter on April 1, 2011 at 9:47 PM

Ruah said yesterday that if Quadaffy quits, expect a media orgasm of unprecedented proportions calling Obama the greatest statesman since (insert Democrat here).

fiatboomer on April 1, 2011 at 9:05 PM

flatboomer:Correction,I found the entire transcript,of that
Rush Video snippet!:)
==================================

The Obama Doctrine: 2012 or Bust
March 29, 2011
*********************
*********************

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: No, you can’t look at it that way. That is the entirely wrong perspective to look at it that way. Ah, Snerdley is sitting here telling me about the speech last night. Let me put it this way. I think I can finally explain the Obama Doctrine in three words: “2012 or Bust.” That’s what the Obama Doctrine is. Folks, greetings, great to have you here. Music lovers, conversationalists all across the fruited plain, Rush Limbaugh with unique insight and analysis here on the cutting edge. Telephone number, 800-282-2882, and the e-mail address, ElRushbo@eibnet.com.

If Khadafy doesn’t leave, two weeks, two months, if Khadafy doesn’t leave, well, no big deal, no real change. Obama can’t look any worse than he does. But if Khadafy decides to scram, and look at this story from the UK Independent: “West Willing to Strike Immunity Deal with Khadafy to End Conflict.” West? That would be us. “Britain and other coalition countries would be prepared to allow Muammar Khadafy to escape prosecution and be granted safe haven as part of a deal to end the conflict in Libya. Publicly, David Cameron has called for Colonel Khadafy to face an investigation by the International Criminal Court in The Hague. But privately, government officials suggest there is growing support for a deal which would allow him immunity from prosecution and the chance to live out his life in another country,” with some of his wealth. If that happens, folks,

************************************************************
I want to warn you, you are going to see media orgasms like you haven’t seen, not even in Grant Park on election night in 2008.
************************************************************

Because you have no idea how desirous the American media is to be able to portray Obama as a kick-butt military leader. You have no idea.
(A lot more…)

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_032911/content/01125106.guest.html

canopfor on April 1, 2011 at 9:48 PM

He needs a helicopter beanie on his head.

Key West Reader on April 1, 2011 at 9:29 PM

Key West Reader:Followed by a Dunce cap!:)

canopfor on April 1, 2011 at 9:50 PM

Because you have no idea how desirous the American media is to be able to portray Obama as a kick-butt military leader. You have no idea.
(A lot more…)

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_032911/content/01125106.guest.html

canopfor on April 1, 2011 at 9:48 PM

What happens if Barry kicks his own ass? I think we are witnessing this.

Prediction: No campaign speeches for about 4 days until someone blows up his ego again and makes him feel the special feeling; the strong feeling of readership; where he can actually stand in front of a lecturn and read to us again.

I don’t know ’bout you, but I can’t wait to see him back on the stage tawkin bout savin murica.

/Katie Couric

Key West Reader on April 1, 2011 at 9:52 PM

canopfor on April 1, 2011 at 9:50 PM

Question: Can we write on his forehead and cheeks? If so, I’d like to write “FAIL” across his forehead. And “TOOL” across both cheeks. And then color his lips orange because I’m tired of that purple lying color.

Key West Reader on April 1, 2011 at 9:54 PM

Give him his money, immunity from prosecution, and California.

Karmi on April 1, 2011 at 9:57 PM

Just said on Fox Business that Willie Coyote OBLahBLah has retirement guarantees built into OBLahBLahcare for top GE and GM execs!

Guess somene shulda read it before they signed it!

I really think Wiley has blown hisself up here on Lybia and if any Repugnantcans had some balls they’d haul his skinny ass up there to splain hisself to McCain ah McCain ah er well, ah like I said, ah, like I’ve always said, McCain ah, er, forget it!

dhunter on April 1, 2011 at 10:04 PM

canopfor on April 1, 2011 at 9:48 PM
What happens if Barry kicks his own ass? I think we are witnessing this.

Prediction: No campaign speeches for about 4 days until someone blows up his ego again and makes him feel the special feeling; the strong feeling of readership; where he can actually stand in front of a lecturn and read to us again.

I don’t know ’bout you, but I can’t wait to see him back on the stage tawkin bout savin murica.

/Katie Couric

Key West Reader on April 1, 2011 at 9:52 PM

Key West Reader:Yup,I can’t wait till his rear-end is out
of da WH!:)

canopfor on April 1, 2011 at 10:16 PM

canopfor on April 1, 2011 at 9:50 PM
===============================
Question: Can we write on his forehead and cheeks? If so, I’d like to write “FAIL” across his forehead. And “TOOL” across both cheeks. And then color his lips orange because I’m tired of that purple lying color.

Key West Reader on April 1, 2011 at 9:54 PM

Key West Reader:I’m thinking of accidental colour-dyed
slurpee,haha!!:)

canopfor on April 1, 2011 at 10:18 PM

Give him his money, immunity from prosecution, and California.

Karmi on April 1, 2011 at 9:57 PM

Wait… I’m not out of California, yet. Trying, though.

trigon on April 1, 2011 at 10:29 PM

THE MAGNIFICENT MUOMMAR

I’m the Magnificent Moummar
The Lion of Tripoli
Whose awesome mighty roar
Did make Obama flee

Your pitiful daily bombings
Have left me without a scratch
While the US, UK and France are..
Three Stooges who have met their match

Come join my triumphant parade
Where I light the victory flame
While Obama and his sycophants
Sneak away in shame

I’m the Magniicent Muommar
The world now knows I’m best
My advice to the White House loser
Go play some golf and rest

MaiDee on April 1, 2011 at 10:40 PM

The Democrat 2012 Convention theme song.

profitsbeard on April 1, 2011 at 11:26 PM

In that picture you have of Obama accompanying this thread, that look on his face reminds me of the look a baby gets on their face when they just did a huge load in their diapers.

Obama has probably been filling his own pants lately when it comes to the prospects of his being re-elected in 2012, especially in light of current events unfolding.

pilamaye on April 2, 2011 at 8:08 AM

ahhhhhhhhhhhh….American Thuggery

roflmmfao

donabernathy on April 2, 2011 at 9:58 AM