Poll: Trump’s entry into the race would hurt Palin the most

posted at 7:50 pm on March 23, 2011 by Allahpundit

It’s weird to think of him pulling votes from anyone, but … Palin? The candidate with the single most devoted base in the entire field?

Draw me a Venn diagram of their respective constituencies, please.

Ten percent of Republicans and independents who lean Republican say they would most likely support Trump for the GOP’s 2012 presidential nomination.

That would place him fifth on the list behind former Arkansas Gov. and 2008 Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee at 19 percent, former Massachusetts Gov. and 2008 White House hopeful Mitt Romney at 18 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 14 percent, and 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin at 12 percent…

“Removing Trump’s name from the list and allocating his voters to their second choice gives Huckabee 21 percent and Romney 19 percent – essentially unchanged from January. In a Trump-less field, Gingrich gets 15 percent, up from 10 percent in January, and Paul goes from 7 percent to 11 percent. Palin is the big loser, dropping from 19 percent in a no-Trump round in January to just 13 percent now,” adds Holland.

That’s the fun part of the poll. The less fun part is that Democratic enthusiasm has jumped to 56 percent, trimming a 22-point Republican advantage to … just six. I’m trying hard not to attribute that to a backlash on the left against Wisconsin, but it’s the most compelling explanation I can think of.

As for the Trump/Palin overlap, maybe there’s a portion of disengaged Republican voters who tilt towards the candidate with the highest name recognition. Normally that’s Sarah, but That Guy From “The Apprentice” out-celebrities even her. Similarly, could be that some righties are looking to liven up the debates for fear of a Romney/Pawlenty/Gingrich/Daniels soporific nightmare. Palin and Trump would both achieve that. Or maybe some of Palin’s support right now is as a protest vote by people disaffected with the establishment GOP. I’m skeptical of that, though, since protest votes don’t normally go to candidates like her who can actually win. If the Trump vote is coming from people who are simply looking to spoil a ballot as a kiss-off to the top contenders in the field, I would think he’d be pulling more from someone like Ron Paul (who actually finished two points behind Trump) than from her.

All theories welcome. Via JWF, here he is today on “The View” devoting yet another media appearance to the vagaries of Obama’s birth certificate.

Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air



Trackback URL


Comment pages: 1 2 3

The population of MA is about 10 times that of AK:

State Populations

MJBrutus on March 24, 2011 at 12:16 AM

Trump=Ross Perot redux.

But I do rather enjoy his calls for The One to come clean on his birth certificate! :-)

Sarah Palin is, IMHO, the best choice. Like Reagan, she will buy us time at the very least and at best will provide solid, sensible leadership when this economic system collapses and we’re hard-pressed by our enemies.

Dr. ZhivBlago on March 24, 2011 at 12:17 AM

Petunia, what plan should she have had against these people who were out to personally bankrupt her? Should she have printed the money in her garage to pay for all of her legal expenses? She tried to set up a legal defense fund and was told it was unconstitutional under Alaskan law. I know as I got my $25 back from them after the dispute was settled. So a bunch of people are suing Obama now because they think he’s ineligible to serve as POTUS. Is it going to ruin him financially? I doubt it. Nor is it hamstringing him and his office to such a degree he’s unable to do his job. He might not be doing his job, but it’s not because the lawsuits pending against him are eating up all of his and his staff’s time.

The anti-Palin contingent needs to recognize that just because they don’t want to acknowledge the facts doesn’t render them nonexistent. We know what happened in Alaska, we know why Palin resigned as governor. Painting her as a quitter who couldn’t see what was coming and who shrank from adversity doesn’t alter those facts. Sorry.

NoLeftTurn on March 24, 2011 at 12:21 AM


Don’t let “the annual” know you live in the South. She’s afeared of Southerns because of what she has seen on TV shows and movies…

Gohawgs on March 24, 2011 at 12:35 AM

You people really are something else. You fixate. You twist. And then you hold grudges over the things you make up! It’s all in your heads. Get a shrink. I’m not your enemy stop attacking me.

I don’t pick Palin. What’s it to you anyway? Why are you personally insulted? More people don’t pick her than do. I’ve tried to tell you why but that just means you have to call names and say rude things.

I had a fairly nice discussion with a few more sensible folks than the late night shift.

I must be really important if you are still twisting words I said months ago. You can’t counter my arguments so you call names and blow little things I mentioned weeks and months ago out of all proportion. Don’t you have any actual reasons to support her?

Just heap hate on anyone who differs. Good night haters.

petunia on March 24, 2011 at 12:50 AM

NoLeftTurn on March 24, 2011 at 12:21 AM

Those are nice excuses for her failure but don’t change the facts. Being forced out of office is a failure.

petunia on March 24, 2011 at 12:52 AM

Being forced out of office is a failure.

petunia on March 24, 2011 at 12:52 AM

I liked the way Palin faced her failure. Leaders need to have faced adversity, to be tested. It would have been the easiest thing in the world to run from the sustained hate campaign directed against her, and yet she keeps fighting and taking the lead on issue after issue. That shows her mettle.

alwaysfiredup on March 24, 2011 at 1:06 AM

petunia on March 24, 2011 at 12:50 AM

You seem to be confusing the facts with your feelings. You are the commenter that can’t seem to understand the events, and how they unfolded, in Alaska. What I and other readers of this blog have to go on are your written words. And when your written words are referenced by myself, and others, you claim I am/we are twisting your words. The goalposts are in continual motion somewhere down the field.

Being forced out of office is a failure of the law as it was written at the time not to protect the Governor from such lawsuits while providing protections to other branches of the government.

But once again, you know that…

Gohawgs on March 24, 2011 at 1:07 AM

oh petunia… you fell for Romney. Hard. You just love those bland, dependable, non charismatic guys that can stay in the whitehouse the longest.

I too had my flirtations with ol Mitt (my mormon glee got the best of me for about a month)… but after actually watching him be such a waffling, boring, slick, fake smiling, uber dork I realized something. Mitt is the morally clean cut, nice guy doppelganger of Silky Pony Edwards.

If Mitt had just one of Donald Trumps testicles, I would vote for him in a nanosecond. But, he doesn’t.

There is NOBODY in this race right now that has a hard truth telling voice other than Palin. There is a reason that Ann Coulter loves Chris Christie. He’s got the balls to speak truth. Same with Trump. That’s why people are paying attention to him.

Now I know that you really dislike Palin. That’s cool. I get it. You have been convinced of the same ol B.S. that most average joes have. But when ol bags Babara Bush says she wishes that Palin would go back to Alaska….THAT ALONE TELLS ME TO VOTE FOR PALIN.


GoHawgs completely burned you. Noodge

johnnyboy on March 24, 2011 at 1:07 AM

correction… nooch (via jay and silent bob). not noodge

johnnyboy on March 24, 2011 at 1:21 AM

Petunia said: I think we have a great field of choices. I could support lots of them. I agree with Palin on all issues. My reasons for not supporting her is the experience issue and the fact that she really has not proven she can’t beat the system. The system beat her and beat her bad. That eliminates her as a first choice.

You have rocks for brains. PALIN BEAT THE SYSTEM by sidestepping the system you moron. The left expected her to stay in office because almost ALL politicans do, and bankrupt her family and her future earnings with more and more bogus bullsh!t piled on top of the sh!t they already did, and she flat out set up a scenario that completely neutered their strategy, because she does think outside the box.

You say she didn’t have the republican support in her state and that was her fault. Your damn right about they, she put their asses in JAIL!!!!!!!!!!!

Don’t you see that you are playing right into the establishment elite’s hands by being their useful idiot?

karenhasfreedom on March 24, 2011 at 1:42 AM

Sorry, the blockquote didn’t work right there. It worked backwards.

karenhasfreedom on March 24, 2011 at 1:43 AM

karenhasfreedom on March 24, 2011 at 1:43 AM

The solution, more peanut butter Capt. Crunch!!!

Gohawgs on March 24, 2011 at 1:50 AM

My take on the resignation issue:

1)Sarah Palin had no intention to run for re-election in 2010. Because of the Alaskan legislature not allowing the Governor to participate in any partisan activities and because she needed time to get her book ready for spring 2010 (rumors at the time), I thought she might have resigned at the beginning of 2010 regardless of what happened.

2)By resigning on July 3, 2009 she was forced to move her timetable up by 6 months but like a true champion she seized the opportunity to get her book ready by Nov 2009.

3)Palin always knew she needed at least 12+ months to get her ducks in a row to run for President in the 21st century. She saw what happened to Fred Thompson in 2008 when he tried to get in late and didn’t have enough time to get his ducks in a row.

4)Sarah resigned for two mains reasons: the lawsuits were needlessly costing the taxpayers of Alaska millions of dollars in processing the frivolous claims + taking up too many man-hours to conduct business properly and the the Palin would be relegated to declaring personal bankruptcy if Sarah stayed in office. Those are the facts. Get over it!

5)I wrote soon after Palin resigned that every candidate will have huge supposed handicap to overcome: (Romney-Romneycare), Gingrich (his 3 marriages), Huckabee (Clemmons) and Palin (the resignation).

So whoever overcomes their greatest handicap imho will prevail.

Does anyone really feel that Romney will be able to sell himself to conservatives any better than Palin with Romneycare hanging over his head?

6)If Palin quit, why didn’t she keep up the habit and quit on the national GOP and the American people in the run up the midterm election?

7)If the MSM thought that “quitting meme” is such a big deal why doesn’t it bring it up when telling Palin not to run?

8)Why is Palin still playing before SRO audiences if she is so out of favor for “quitting”? Shouldn’t she be considered a pariah?

9)Notice that the folks who attack Palin for “quitting” never refer to Obama’s role in the entire affair.

10)And of course Palin’s enemies never acknowledge that all the frivolous ethics complaints were thrown out.

technopeasant on March 24, 2011 at 2:18 AM

Have you ever tried to argue with a child potted plant. That’s Petunia. She’s doesn’t have a very sophisticated argument but she’s right because she says so.

Vince on March 24, 2011 at 12:00 AM


Geochelone on March 24, 2011 at 2:25 AM

You don’t seriously believe this poll do you? If you do, I have some AZ southern border property to sell you.

Done That on March 24, 2011 at 6:54 AM

You people really are something else. You fixate. You twist. And then you hold grudges over the things you make up! It’s all in your heads. Get a shrink. I’m not your enemy stop attacking me.

petunia on March 24, 2011 at 12:50 AM

But you are their enemy! To the Palians anyone who is not exuberant and convinced to a certainty reserved only for the Pope that she is the only candidate who can save us is ABP. Heretics, apostates, blasphemers and infidels will be stoned with spam. So it is written, so it shall be done, inshallah.

MJBrutus on March 24, 2011 at 7:40 AM

Trump and palin are protest votes, neither has the slightest chance of actually winning. Your analysis here sucks. No one with unfavs as high as hers can get the votes and she has pissed off the old gaurd in the party so she’ll get kneecapped on funding. The gop will do her like they did bucannan and paul.

snoopicus on March 24, 2011 at 8:03 AM

Those are nice excuses for her failure but don’t change the facts. Being forced out of office is a failure.

petunia on March 24, 2011 at 12:52 AM

Then I guess you’ll take Newt off of your list of potential candidates since he was also “forced” out of office? Your hypocrisy is in full bloom in this thread. Don’t blame us for pointing it out to you.

NoLeftTurn on March 24, 2011 at 10:14 AM

NoLeftTurn on March 24, 2011 at 10:14 AM

You assume that Newt was on Petunia’s list to start with. The hypocrisy may well be a figment of your own mind, but go ahead and throw stones anyway.

MJBrutus on March 24, 2011 at 10:35 AM

Seriously: anybody feel like throwing away their vote on this over-privileged toupee model?

mojo on March 24, 2011 at 10:40 AM

I knew better than to click on that – Dear Lord why did I?
I did enjoy Whoopi nearly fainting at the thought that anyone should dare ask for the birth certificate, and of course, it’s because he’s black. I am so sick of this.

silvernana on March 24, 2011 at 12:17 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3