Military splitting from Yemen government?
posted at 10:55 am on March 21, 2011 by Ed Morrissey
In the end, the Egyptian military played a decisive role in ending the protests in Cairo and Alexandria while forcing the civilian autocracy to offer some reforms towards democratization. The end may have come in Yemen for its own civilian autocracy, and the military may have just delivered the message:
Three top generals in Yemen declared their support for anti-government protests Monday as a wave of officials, including the deputy speaker of parliament, announced their resignations.
One of the generals who broke ranks will order his troops to protect protesters demonstrating against the country’s longtime president, he told reporters in Yemen. Maj. Gen. Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar’s announcement ramps up the pressure on President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who is seeing cracks in his support after 32 years in power.
At least 13 top officials announced their support for the “peaceful revolution” on Monday, the official said.
They included a provincial governor, the ambassadors to Japan, Syria and the Czech Republic, and top diplomats in the embassies in Washington and Moscow.
The most surprising of these might not be the generals, but the Yemeni ambassador to Syria. That nation has also been wracked by internal dissension as protesters have filled the streets for the last several days. A statement for revolution of any kind, peaceful or otherwise, won’t exactly be welcomed by the Bashar Assad regime or Syria’s security apparatus, which already has its hands full trying to suppress its own population.
In Yemen, Saleh dismissed his entire cabinet in an attempt to appease his nation, but it doesn’t appear to have worked. After massacring 40 people at a protest last week, Saleh’s security forces have alienated the military leaders of his country. The statement from the generals puts the Yemeni army in conflict with Saleh’s forces and sets up a potential war in the streets between them.
The military isn’t the only group Saleh has managed to lose over the last few days, either. After the massacre, the leader of Saleh’s political party has publicly withdrawn an offer to mediate between the opposition and the Saleh regime. Mohammed Abulahoum has now demanded a “good, safe exit strategy” from Saleh that will peacefully transfer power to the “next authority or President” for Yemen.
The stakes are pretty clear. Either Saleh can wage a civil war against the military with his own party abandoning him, or he can look for the next flight out of Sana’a. When he goes, the US will face a critical crisis in Yemen, where Saleh provided some support for attacking al-Qaeda’s active branch in that country. Whoever follows Saleh is not likely to be more amenable to cooperation with the US on that score.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Dither about this for a few weeks then fire some cruise missiles.
Bishop on March 21, 2011 at 11:01 AM
Thank goodness Obama gave that speech in Cairo! Without it, these revolutions would have never happened!
Nethicus on March 21, 2011 at 11:01 AM
How soon can we get in there? People were killed!
a capella on March 21, 2011 at 11:03 AM
Jane at Armies of Liberation has been covering Yemen for years. That’s a great source of information and she has lots of contacts there. It will be the go to place as Saleh’s problems mount.
Dusty on March 21, 2011 at 11:06 AM
Kind of stretches the term “President” as I normally think of it. o_O
Count to 10 on March 21, 2011 at 11:08 AM
I wish someone had the slightest clue as to what exactly is going on in the Middle East? Good news, bad news, not sure news.
Seems like the news is just that it’s happening – but what comes out of all this mess?
jake-the-goose on March 21, 2011 at 11:10 AM
Let’s cross that bridge when we come to it. We screwed up by supporting Mubarak as his entire country turned against him, and if we do the same to Saleh, we are certainly not advancing our own interests.
unclesmrgol on March 21, 2011 at 11:12 AM
Syria in turmoil is good because it means less pressure they can put on Lebanon.
Yemen, OTOH, going into turmoil is NOT good considering that al-Qaeda has a hold there.
I’m a little surprised that the protests have taken off as well as they have in Yemen, too, since everyone has been too busy doing Qat to concentrate on much of anything.
teke184 on March 21, 2011 at 11:12 AM
No-fly zone in Yemen! We need a no-fly zone in Yemen!
/s
MJBrutus on March 21, 2011 at 11:12 AM
You’re wrong on just one point: Saleh never provided any real support for our efforts against Al Qaeda, which he has always considered an ally in his war against the Shi’a Houthis, and the so-called atheists in the Southern Secessionist movement. Al Qaeda, after all, was instrumental is his ability to quickly put down the 1994 attempted secession.
While Saleh has enjoyed the acclaim he gets from the west every time he announces the arrest of AQAP figures, he is careful to release them quietly when he thinks nobody is looking. He plays on our desire to see him as an ally so boldly that he’s even announced multiple times the deaths of the same AQAP leaders.
Despite his promises to the contrary, he has used US and UK-provided counter-terror training and equipment against the Houthis, and now he is using helicopters provided for counter-terrorism against the protestors.
The man positioning himself to take his place – Brigadier General Ali Mohsen al Ahmar – is at least as bad as Saleh, and may be worse as president. Ali Mohsen was and continues to be Saleh’s go-between with Al Qaeda, and he bears direct responsibility for the deaths of many Yemenis.
Steven on March 21, 2011 at 11:13 AM
Probably new strongmen, but, in some places, the possibility of democracy. All the dice are being rolled right now.
unclesmrgol on March 21, 2011 at 11:13 AM
Think of it in Latin American terms, like “President-for-life” as a euphemism for “dictator”.
teke184 on March 21, 2011 at 11:13 AM
Our own interests? When did they become a factor in our decision to wage war? I thought we act in the Arab League or the UN’s interests now.
MJBrutus on March 21, 2011 at 11:14 AM
Right – I just don’t hear any of the MSM reporting on possible outcomes.
Didn’t the “new Egypt” just support the mortar attack on Israel? Where is that being reported?
jake-the-goose on March 21, 2011 at 11:18 AM
The next Caliphate. Al-Q is very active in Yemen.
Key West Reader on March 21, 2011 at 11:25 AM
This is what’s bothering me. Is this all being done in an effort to put a more stringent Islamic government into place? Egypt, Libya, or anywhere over there? This is my greatest concern here. Nothing, and I mean nothing, when it comes to Obama, is EVER as it seems.
Off topic…but is anyone else having problems lately? I’ve had issues. I can connect to the internet, but my browser rarely loads. I’ve done everything. Cleaned my computer, done updates, checked my connections, and nothing seems to work. My time here is rare, because at times, I just can’t access my browser. I’m on wireless btw.
So I’m thinking, either there’s something wrong, that I haven’t figured out yet, or …..my conspiracy theories come into play. Am I being blocked because of my political views?
If anyone has an answer, it will be greatly appreciated, and hopefully, I can stay connected long enough to read it.
capejasmine on March 21, 2011 at 11:30 AM
We need more aircraft carriers,..how many? Let’s see,..how many Arab countries are there?
a capella on March 21, 2011 at 11:31 AM
No worries! We have Obama in the White House!
pseudonominus on March 21, 2011 at 11:34 AM
Heh, Removing Saleh from office in Yemen is equivalent to shooing a fly off a wet lop of cow dung…very little upside for the effort and you are still stuck with a wet lop off cow dung.
Alden Pyle on March 21, 2011 at 12:23 PM