Hot Air poll: March primary survey results

posted at 4:52 pm on March 9, 2011 by Patrick Ishmael

For a third survey in a row, Sarah Palin tops the Hot Air charts, garnering 34% of the readership’s vote. Palin leads a pack consisting of Chris Christie (who for a third survey came in second) at 14%, Herman Cain at 9%, Tim Pawlenty at 7%, and Mitt Romney. Notably, Romney has finished fifth in every survey, and in every survey regardless of sample size, has received 6% of the vote.

Here’s the chart of all the Primary votes so far, starting from the first one we did in November, by percentage of the vote.

For Vice President, Rep. Allen West leads the pack at 22%, followed by Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Herman Cain, and Michele Bachmann. West’s positioning is strongly correlated to Sarah Palin-related votes as her most favored running mate; as Palin voters go up, so too do VP West votes. The VP chart over time:

Top second choice for President? Chris Christie.

Top vote loser? For a second survey, Sarah Palin.

Demographics of this survey:

Nearly 700 people indicated that they did not comment at Hot Air, but “would like to!” For those that have provided email addresses, I’ll try to give you the heads up if I have forewarning as to when registration opens. Regardless, I’ve passed along your interest to the guys upstairs.

Two quick, final points.

It’s important to start winnowing down the candidate pool we’ve got presently. Chris Christie and Paul Ryan will be removed from the topline survey question next month if they don’t indicate a reasonable interest to run; there’s no sense in keeping candidates in the first-choice President question who’ve said they absolutely won’t do it. Gotta move on, as disappointing as it might be. DeMint may also go.

Once the pool is winnowed, the next step is working out when and how candidates will exit the field. Like I indicated when I was predicting House outcomes, predicting nationwide outcomes can be a lot trickier if we just gloss over local circumstances. With the surveys we’ve been doing at Hot Air, we’re gathering lots of valuable knowledge as to these local circumstances; I’m looking forward to matching those circumstances up with the primary calendar, once it crystallizes.

I’ll toss out the first few months of last cycle’s calendar, per, for your perusal as a rough sketch of what next year’s calendar might look like. I look forward to your thoughts in the comments, and at my Twitter.

January 3: Iowa (caucuses)
January 5: Wyoming (GOP caucuses)
January 8: New Hampshire (primary)
January 15: Michigan
January 19: Nevada (precinct caucuses), South Carolina (R primary)
January 26: South Carolina (D primary)
January 29: Florida
February 1: Maine (R)
February 5: Alabama, Alaska (caucuses), Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (caucuses), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D caucuses), Illinois, Kansas (D caucuses), Massachusetts, Minnesota (caucuses), Missouri, Montana (R caucuses), New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota (caucuses), Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, American Samoa (caucuses)
February 9: Louisiana, Kansas (R), Nebraska (D caucuses), Washington (D&R caucuses)
February 10: Maine (D caucuses)
February 12: District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia
February 19: Hawaii (D), Washington (R primary), Wisconsin
MARCH 2008
March 4: Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
March 8: Wyoming (D)
March 11: Mississippi
APRIL 2008
April 22: Pennsylvania

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Comment pages: 1 2 3 4

Now that’s not entirely true. Some of us are merely “morons.”

John the Libertarian on March 9, 2011 at 7:03 PM

LOL!..You are just at stage one..Stage two: Troll..Stage 3: Idiot..:)

Dire Straits on March 9, 2011 at 10:06 PM

Terrye, I have a serious question.

Is there anything about Palin herself, not what other people think about her, that makes her unacceptable as a candidate.

In other words, is there any complaint you can give besides the fictional “electability” factor?

Random Numbers (Brian Epps) on March 9, 2011 at 10:06 PM

Men constituted ~65% of Palin’s vote, women the other 35%. That’s pretty close to the overall gender breakdown.

Patrick Ishmael on March 9, 2011 at 6:02 PM

So it seems safe to conclude that there is no significant gender dependence in terms of support for Palin.

I suppose such parity in gender balance would frustrate those who would prefer to make the argument that Palin’s support is based merely on the shallow idea of males voting according to attractions for the opposite sex (like some kind of Miss American Pageant); as opposed to the more serious issue of her character and record of governance.

Interesting results. Nice charts and graphs Patrick Ishmael.

Geochelone on March 9, 2011 at 10:22 PM

Cindy Munford on March 9, 2011 at 7:40 PM

Oh please. The point of my comment was the consequential vs. the inconsequential. Overanalyzing seems to be the mode these days.

sherry on March 9, 2011 at 10:22 PM

Geochelone on March 9, 2011 at 10:22 PM

Is there other data showing a significant gender dependence for Palin supporters? It doesn’t seem that this poll shows it but one could argue that this poll wasn’t as scientific as those conducted by professional “polsters” (as if their results are always free and pure from an agenda driven bias).

Geochelone on March 9, 2011 at 10:29 PM

Palin does not do nearly as well with young Hot Air respondents.

18-25: 20%
26-35: 26%
36-50: 32%
51-64: 38%
65 and older: 42%

That was an unexpected result to me. It may also be a creeping problem she’d want to address sooner rather than later, if she’s going to run. I just don’t know how exactly she’d do it.

Patrick Ishmael on March 9, 2011 at 6:21 PM

Not much of a problem. The older people get, the more likely they are to vote. I find it interesting and heartening that Palin has such support among the over 40 crowd. It seems that those of us with more experience and longer exposure to reality have a higher opinion of her than those younger naifs. Maybe it’s because we are less likely to be fooled by the “electability” fiction.

Random Numbers (Brian Epps) on March 9, 2011 at 10:41 PM

What a surprise – Sarah Palin wins a non-scientific poll held on a website overrun with Palinistas.

I guess the next shocking revelation here will be that NPR is run by liberal elites, and that the sun will be coming up in the morning.

JFS61 on March 9, 2011 at 10:47 PM

sherry on March 9, 2011 at 10:22 PM

If you have to allude to the depth of your comment, it would appear to have failed.

Cindy Munford on March 9, 2011 at 11:07 PM

As much as the LSM would like everyone to believe that Palin is out of this or her numbers are going down, I believe it’s her race to lose. The LSM is looking for Republicans to declare. Why? So they can get a headstart tearing them down. They’ve been working on Sarah Palin for 2 years and she just keeps getting stronger, for the most part. What they’ve been successful at it marginalizing her among independents and RINO’s. Conservatives understand what she’s saying and know she means it, that’s just the way it is.

All she has to do, to win in the primaries, is go in and debate and be credible. She could declare the day before a debate, get into the next debate and win, if she does a good job. She already has name recognition. Most people will say they’re not sure, but it’t not because they don’t know her, it’s because of the seeds of doubt the LSM has been planting for 2 years. There hasn’t been one LSM outlet, with the exception of Fox News, that hasn’t bashed her, at one time or another. If they were treating Barack Obama this way, his poll numbers would be in the teens.

bflat879 on March 9, 2011 at 11:32 PM

What a surprise – Sarah Palin wins a non-scientific poll held on a website overrun with Palinistas.

JFS61 on March 9, 2011 at 10:47 PM

I will refer you to our host:

We only have one or two hundred regular commenters, I’d bet. There were thousands of replies to the poll. It’s not a matter of anyone having been run off, it’s a matter of right-wing blog readers being more conservative and well-disposed to the tea party than Republicans generally.

Allahpundit on March 9, 2011 at 5:16 PM

alwaysfiredup on March 9, 2011 at 11:32 PM

Hey Patrick. Good job with the poll. But I’m afraid it’s illegitimate, according to the PDSer-ABP-PB&J crowd, due to the Palin win. Perhaps next time you should rig it for Daniels or Pawlenty.

Since this is a poll of presidential contenders, I have to say that I have seen a lot in my life but this statement by Newt Gingrich beggars belief:

“Passion for the country” led to my indiscretions.”

technopeasant on March 9, 2011 at 6:27 PM

Seriously?! He said that?? Ugh. Man, he really has turned into an absolute jackass.

Dongemaharu on March 9, 2011 at 11:40 PM

This really is a poll for who’s 2nd place, because you know if you include Ron Paul in the poll, he will win.

Children, please.

iamse7en on March 9, 2011 at 11:44 PM

iamse7en on March 9, 2011 at 11:44 PM

This isn’t CPAC.

Cindy Munford on March 9, 2011 at 11:47 PM

Ronald Reagan was just an actor and a dunce. The thing is, he had integrity and principles. Screw the MSM and the NYT’s that promoted a Rino in the primaries last time that resulted in defeat. The wimps will not jump in until Governor Palin declares. The people have spoken in this last election…not for the “Moderates”, but for the Patriots. Even Snow is in trouble in liberal land.

I am not a racist on March 9, 2011 at 11:59 PM

Thanks Patrick.

Scanning the comments and seeing the heartache this poll caused was very enjoyable.

I look forward to the next one. I still wish AP and Ed would let you put the poll on the front page. At least for a day or two. Anyway, great job and keep up the outstanding work.

chief on March 10, 2011 at 12:19 AM

I like Cain’s position at this point in time.

ButterflyDragon on March 10, 2011 at 1:55 AM

Thank you Patrick, and way to go Sarah and Mr West.

AZCON on March 10, 2011 at 3:09 AM

The 7% T-Paw got seems about right for this crowd.
Yeah-I’m a 7%-er.

annoyinglittletwerp on March 10, 2011 at 4:35 AM

sherry on March 9, 2011 at 10:22 PM
If you have to allude to the depth of your comment, it would appear to have failed.

Cindy Munford on March 9, 2011 at 11:07 PM

Yes, I suppose it did, especially with those who stay on this blog morning till night. When one hangs out here all day, the perspective of commenting can get a little skewed.

sherry on March 10, 2011 at 6:42 AM

Geez, look at the trend of that red line for Chris Chrispy. The bigger they are, the harder they fall. No wonder Coulter is so agitated. Not a big mystery really. He’s a NJ Republican, which is a tough tough sell for most conservatives.

james23 on March 10, 2011 at 9:19 AM

This place is a freakin sausagefest. We need more broads in here.

Metro on March 10, 2011 at 10:53 AM

Outlier poll.

This does not represent who will actually vote en mass, and thus is as useful as a Ron Paul internet poll.

Sorry HA Palin fans, this isn’t accurate.

scotash on March 10, 2011 at 11:39 AM

I dig Palin a lot and would vote for her but the problem is that she most likely can’t get the independent and swing vote.

tx2654 on March 10, 2011 at 12:25 PM

This place is a freakin sausagefest. We need more broads in here.

Metro on March 10, 2011 at 10:53 AM

Amen to that! I think when HA opens registration again, only WOMEN are allowed to join up.

tx2654 on March 10, 2011 at 12:26 PM

I watched the Sarah Palin 2008 nomination acceptance speech last night for the first time in 2 years — and it made me cry. It also got me back in touch with why, back then, I wished that she were heading the ticket instead of McCain.

I watched it because I never vote for her in your presidential candidate surveys but obviously a lot of people do and I wanted to try and reconnect with why I loved her so much back then.

But I cried, last night, over what might have been. Her speech — far greater than I had remembered — was a crystal clear clarion call to do everything we’ve desperately needed done for the past 2 years — and have not gotten from Obama.

There she was calling for full exploration and exploitation of all our natural fuel resources, for less government, for budget cutting, for strong support for our Iraq war and troops, for strong leadership — for everything needed so badly.

I don’t know how McCain really would have been as president — I was never a big fan of his — but presumably her speech represented his viewpoint as well or she wouldn’t have been saying these things.

Also, she took Obama to task — called him out fully for who he was and is — in a hilarious, brilliant, spirit-lifting manner — saying what nobody else (among politicians, anyway) was saying at the time about the anointed one.

I really don’t know if she would be the best candidate or if she could win — but just watching her speech clarified for me her strengths and appeal to your Palin voters.

lorettawm on March 10, 2011 at 12:47 PM

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