ADP report shows 217K private-sector jobs added in February

posted at 2:55 pm on March 2, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its unemployment data for February on Friday, but one early — if not totally reliable — indicator comes from ADP, the payroll-management firm.  Each month, they release their analysis of private-sector job growth a day or two ahead of the BLS, giving a sneak peek at government figures and an opportunity for analysts and investors to hone their predictions.  This month, the news looks good:

Private-sector employment increased by 217,000 from January to February on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today.  The  estimated change of employment from December 2010 to January 2011 was revised up to  189,000 from the previously reported increase of 187,000.

This month’s ADP National Employment Report suggests continued solid growth of nonfarm private employment early in 2011.  The recent pattern of rising employment gains since the middle of last year was reinforced by today’s report, as the average gain from December through February (217,000) is well above the average gain over the prior six months (63,000).

Unfortunately, the ADP report often shoots far higher than actual outcomes.  In part, this is because ADP does not measure government employment, so job losses in the public sector don’t get factored into their results.  However, that doesn’t explain all of the disconnect between ADP’s recent analyses and the overall BLS figures.  For instance, ADP predicted a gain of 297,000 private-sector jobs in December that ended up being a weak 103K.  Their January estimate of 189,000 added private-sector jobs ended up overshooting the eventual BLS result of 36,000 added jobs overall.

If this is close to reality, though, it will be good news indeed.  But what do other early predictors say?  Gallup, for instance, is much more pessimistic.  Their survey has shown a flat line on job growth, and now puts unemployment at 10.3%.  The survey also has combined unemployment and underemployment at 19.9%, both of which are largely unchanged over the last 13 months.

I’d expect the economy to have added a keep-pace number of jobs overall in Friday’s numbers, perhaps 110,000, but that the BLS jobless rate will go up slightly to 9.2%.  We seem to be stagnating at the same level as 2010 for the most part.


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are we having another census?

ted c on March 2, 2011 at 2:57 PM

I’d expect the economy to have added a keep-pace number of jobs overall in Friday’s numbers, perhaps 110,000, but that the BLS jobless rate will go up slightly to 9.2%. We seem to be stagnating at the same level as 2010 for the most part.

Nah, even if the economy adds only 50,000 jobs, the unemployment rate could take another 0.4% dip. At this point, they’re blatantly manipulating it.

Doughboy on March 2, 2011 at 2:58 PM

For instance, ADP predicted a gain of 297,000 private-sector jobs in December that ended up being a weak 103K. Their January estimate of 189,000 added private-sector jobs ended up overshooting the eventual BLS result of 36,000 added jobs overall.

Yeesh. That’s not slightly off, it’s in another universe.

amerpundit on March 2, 2011 at 2:59 PM

Gallup, for instance, is much more pessimistic. Their survey has shown a flat line on job growth, and now puts unemployment at 10.3%. The survey also has combined unemployment and underemployment at 19.9%, both of which are largely unchanged over the last 13 months.

Some great 2012 election campaign material in there. Combine that with $6.00/gal gas, an over the cliff debt, comical foreign policy; there has to be some light at the end of the tunnel.

a capella on March 2, 2011 at 3:08 PM

The economy is still a mess, and there is not nearly enough turnover for all the new entrants into the workforce each year.

WisCon on March 2, 2011 at 3:09 PM

Maybe they consider beating on a 5-gal bucket and yelling “shame” in the Wisconson Statehouse to be a “job.”

iurockhead on March 2, 2011 at 3:10 PM

Maybe they consider beating on a 5-gal bucket and yelling “shame” in the Wisconson Statehouse to be a “job.”

iurockhead on March 2, 2011 at 3:10 PM

Maybe it is. Are the people being bussed in getting paid for their presence?

Doughboy on March 2, 2011 at 3:17 PM

The price of oil is rising with tensions in the ME and our unwillingness to drill domestically, which makes doing business more expensive every day, yet businesses are in the hiring mood?

And then I woke up.

pugwriter on March 2, 2011 at 3:19 PM

I guess there wasn’t any snow in February.

:o/

cntrlfrk on March 2, 2011 at 3:19 PM

These guys make climate change data look reliable!

Whoa – temp was expected to go up 2°C and instead went down 14°F!
Avg. northern hemishere 2010 temp unexpectedly adjusted 4 mph!
CO2 compositions predict more wildfire next year…for now..

tomg51 on March 2, 2011 at 3:19 PM

Surprisingly…?

d1carter on March 2, 2011 at 3:20 PM

The Administration claimed last month was low because of snow. So this month should have been 250,000 PLUS the snow makeup. FAIL!

huckleberryfriend on March 2, 2011 at 3:21 PM

Planned layoffs were up 32% from last month and at an 11 month high today.

Chuck Schick on March 2, 2011 at 3:21 PM

And next month they’ll adjust it downwards to its real number.

rogerb on March 2, 2011 at 3:23 PM

This month, the news looks good:

Let me insert my own “unexpectedly” in there since the press won’t.

jeffn21 on March 2, 2011 at 3:25 PM

Watch for any gains, to go away quickly as oil, and gas prices rise. It won’t get better, if thise trend continues, and there’s no indication to say it’s not going to continue. :(

capejasmine on March 2, 2011 at 3:25 PM

ADP report says:

We have never been at war with East Asia.

BobMbx on March 2, 2011 at 3:27 PM

ALL PRAISE THE MESSIAH OF JOB CREATION!!!

– ernesto, fins, crr6

angryed on March 2, 2011 at 3:31 PM

I guess there wasn’t any snow in February.

:o/

cntrlfrk on March 2, 2011 at 3:19 PM

Global Warming?

Chip on March 2, 2011 at 3:34 PM

You can see what bho and team are doing and will do till the 2012 election. Jobs, jobs, and more jobs! They will do the fuzzy math so they look as wonderful as possible. The sad fact, most people will believe this and think more money needs to be taken from us to see to it the jobs continue to do the fuzzy math thing.
L

letget on March 2, 2011 at 3:45 PM

It would be wonderful if this were true, but given ADP’s past reports of the following year, the terms “outlier,” and “wishful thinking” cant help but to come to mind.

Indy82 on March 2, 2011 at 3:49 PM

Just another wonderful month of stagnation. Someone should drag Nancy and Harry out to take another bow along with The One. They’ve done wonders with the economy.

Another couple TRILLION should do it!

GarandFan on March 2, 2011 at 3:50 PM

I’ve noticed that the local tax place has hired at least 5 people to stand out by the road with their ipod and hold up a sign to come in and get yer taxes done. Recovery Winter!!!!!

search4truth on March 2, 2011 at 3:55 PM

At the same time, Challenger says planned job cuts increased by 20% in February:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-02/announced-u-s-job-cuts-rose-20-from-year-ago-challenger-says.html

bw222 on March 2, 2011 at 3:57 PM

Temp minimum wage jobs?

Dr. ZhivBlago on March 2, 2011 at 4:02 PM

Maybe they consider beating on a 5-gal bucket and yelling “shame” in the Wisconson Statehouse to be a “job.”

iurockhead on March 2, 2011 at 3:10 PM

Well. A lot of them were “employed” teachers.

BowHuntingTexas on March 2, 2011 at 4:06 PM

Watch for any gains, to go away quickly as oil, and gas prices rise. It won’t get better, if thise trend continues, and there’s no indication to say it’s not going to continue. :(

capejasmine on March 2, 2011 at 3:25 PM

Not necessarily. We’ve seen prices rise due to events in the ME. If Libya, for example, keeps on producing and we don’t see any more uprisings in OPEC nations we may very well see prices ease.

MJBrutus on March 2, 2011 at 4:07 PM

Nah, even if the economy adds only 50,000 jobs, the unemployment rate could take another 0.4% dip. At this point, they’re blatantly manipulating it.

Doughboy on March 2, 2011 at 2:58 PM

Yep, I don’t know anyone that believes anything the government publishes these days, it’s like we are living in the old Soviet state.

whbates on March 2, 2011 at 4:21 PM

Well as for me, I’m gonna use the leftist playbook and give full credit to the new republican house majority!!! It was everything they did that caused this unexpected gain in American jobs!!! Of course, I must also note that had those same leftists not been trying to obstruct everything this wonderful new house majority was trying to do, the gains would have been double!!! Triple even!!!eleventy!!!

runawayyyy on March 2, 2011 at 5:07 PM

These jobs were all created in Madison by MoveOn.org.

BKeyser on March 2, 2011 at 5:12 PM

Surprisingly…?

d1carter on March 2, 2011 at 3:20 PM

No, “unexpectedly” /

Who is John Galt on March 2, 2011 at 6:33 PM

runawayyyy on March 2, 2011 at 5:07 PM

+1000! for humor!

Who is John Galt on March 2, 2011 at 6:37 PM

We need NET job creation of at least 180,000 per month to keep pace with the new net entries to the labor force. Anything less is a net loss.

But this doesn’t always show up in the RATE, because those who have exhausted unemployment benefits and stopped their job searches are considered “discouraged workers” and not counted as unemployed. These are mostly aged 50+, who turn to using their savings to survive until they reach retirement age.

The traditional DW% ranged from 1.3 – 1.8% of the work force since the stat was first kept in the Reagan years. Check out what it is now.

Adjoran on March 2, 2011 at 11:44 PM