A peek under the hood of the NYT/CBS poll

posted at 8:48 am on March 1, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Allahpundit did a great job last night of dissecting the latest NYT/CBS poll based on its results from CBS’ reporting.  The survey found that a large majority of their respondents support keeping current collective bargaining rights in the public sector (60/33), and a slightly smaller majority opposed cutting pay or benefits of public employees to close deficits (56/37).  However, the New York Times published the actual sample, and it calls into question at least the magnitude of the results.

First, the partisan split in the sample gave a ten-point advantage to Democrats.  Their sample for this poll had a D/R/I split of 36/26/31, an absurd sample for political polling.  In December, Rasmussen’s general-population survey put Republicans ahead, 36.0% to 34.7% for Democrats.  A recent poll by Gallup shows erosion in Democratic affiliation all through 2010.  In 2008, Barack Obama won the popular vote by seven points nationwide, and the NYT/CBS poll assumes that the electorate has grown more Democratic in 2011.

Next, 20% of the poll’s respondents claim to come from union households.  However, only 11.9% of American workers belong to a union, according to a report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics last month and noted by none other than the Times itself.  Union membership fell to a 70-year low as a percentage of the workforce, which in itself is a rather damning statement about the view of collective bargaining by the vast majority of American workers.  How exactly did the survey manage to comprise itself of almost twice as many union-household respondents for a poll on union policies as union members in the workforce?  Interesting.

Finally, 25% of respondents are either public employees or share a household with a public employee.  Federal employees comprise less than 2% of the workforce at around 2 million.  Overall, the US has 22.22 million government employees out of an employed workforce of 130.27 million, according to the Current Employment Statistics survey at the BLS.  Government employment accounts for 17% of all workers, so a sample consisting of 25% public-sector households for a survey of adults (not registered voters) seems a little off.

The gaps in the results are wide enough that these issues by themselves might not have swung them to the opposite.  However, at least the magnitude of the results can certainly be questioned in a poll this flawed.

Update: William Jacobson finds similar problems in a widely-quoted PPP poll claiming that Scott Walker would lose to Tom Barrett in a re-do.


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The day that NYT or CBS conducts what could be considered to be an unbiased, unflawed, accurate poll is the day it rains meatballs from the sky!

pilamaye on March 1, 2011 at 8:51 AM

D/R/I split of 26/36/31

R/D/I ?

publiuspen on March 1, 2011 at 8:51 AM

I don’t think that polling the SWP has any effect at all and merely reflects what the average American thinks.

/NYT 1900-Present

mankai on March 1, 2011 at 8:52 AM

Next, 20% of the poll’s respondents claim to come from union households. However, only 11.9% of American workers belong to a union, according to a report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics last month and noted by none other than the Times itself. Union membership fell to a 70-year low as a percentage of the workforce, which in itself is a rather damning statement about the view of collective bargaining by the vast majority of American workers. How exactly did the survey manage to comprise itself of almost twice as many union-household respondents for a poll on union policies as union members in the workforce? Interesting.

Here’s the answer to that question:

– Vote in poll;

– Clear cache;

– Vote in poll;

– Clear cache; and,

– Vote in poll.

Repeat ad infinitum.

Lourdes on March 1, 2011 at 8:52 AM

First, the partisan split in the sample gave a ten-point advantage to Democrats. Their sample for this poll had a D/R/I split of 26/36/31, an absurd sample for political polling.

Should that be R/D/I?

cjtony97 on March 1, 2011 at 8:53 AM

D/R/I split of 26/36/31

R/D/I ?

publiuspen on March 1, 2011 at 8:51 AM

Must be.

Count to 10 on March 1, 2011 at 8:53 AM

publiuspen on March 1, 2011 at 8:51 AM

Democrat/Republican/Independents

Cindy Munford on March 1, 2011 at 8:53 AM

Their sample for this poll had a D/R/I split of 26/36/31

I think you mean R/D/I, Ed…

steebo77 on March 1, 2011 at 8:54 AM

publiuspen on March 1, 2011 at 8:51 AM

Opps, sorry I see what you are asking.

Cindy Munford on March 1, 2011 at 8:54 AM

Fixed the numbers; sorry about that!

Ed Morrissey on March 1, 2011 at 8:54 AM

Next, 20% of the poll’s respondents claim to come from union households. However, only 11.9% of American workers belong to a union, according to a report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics last month and noted by none other than the Times itself.

Doable if nearly all union members live in the same household as another adult, but not another union member.

Count to 10 on March 1, 2011 at 8:56 AM

Limbaugh and Hannity both warned us that these slanted polls would be flying at us as the state media tries to control the message.

Keemo on March 1, 2011 at 8:57 AM

I still say the problem is the underlying assertion that the monopolistic privilege of collective bargaining is somehow a right.

Count to 10 on March 1, 2011 at 8:58 AM

Lourdes on March 1, 2011 at 8:52 AM

It was a phone poll. Still there are some possiblities of duplications between landlines and cell owners.

Deanna on March 1, 2011 at 8:58 AM

Thanks for the number crunching Ed.

I think conservatives/Republicans grossly underestimate how crooked the left, including the “MSM” is willing to get to protect unions here. As Maddow said (paraphrasing) if this Wisconsin deal goes through, Democrats are history. Our tax dollars are their cash cow.

American Elephant on March 1, 2011 at 8:59 AM

Media polls are designed exclusively to shape opinion not measure it.

tommyboy on March 1, 2011 at 9:00 AM

Remember the old bumper stickers: CBS RATHER biased? Nothing’s changed. Media Bias. That’s why they are ignoring this.

kingsjester on March 1, 2011 at 9:02 AM

Too funny, nyt thinking the US is more liberal

Just propping up dear leader as much as possible

cmsinaz on March 1, 2011 at 9:02 AM

I see another problem with the answers. For example the collective bargaining question states some of the “right.” Then the answers state “somewhst favor” and “somewhat oppose.” Sounds pretty vague…which “some” do they “somewhat” oppose or favor.

Deanna on March 1, 2011 at 9:02 AM

Allahpundit did a great job last night of dissecting the latest NYT/CBS poll based on its results from CBS’ reporting.

No he didn’t. He said don’t quibble with the poll internals.

I and other called him out on it immediately.

angryed on March 1, 2011 at 9:03 AM

Im not surprised with a CBS/NYT poll,who is?

docflash on March 1, 2011 at 9:06 AM

*crickets chirping* from the lsm

KJ
Good one….

Dear leader going for a shout out?

cmsinaz on March 1, 2011 at 9:06 AM

The “household” numbers might check out as kosher because a bunch of private sector people share households with public sector workers.

But the plus 10% Democrat sample and the fact that they sampled “adults” will favor the liberal answers by about 15% of a good registered voter poll with a proper sample breakdown.

It’s bunk.

forest on March 1, 2011 at 9:07 AM

Privileges =/= rights.

Good Lt on March 1, 2011 at 9:07 AM

cmsinaz on March 1, 2011 at 9:06 AM

Thanks. Perhaps he’ll invite him in for tea.

kingsjester on March 1, 2011 at 9:09 AM


The gaps in the results are wide enough that these issues by themselves might not have swung them to the opposite. However, at least the magnitude of the results can certainly be questioned in a poll this flawed.

That’s hard to believe, the New York slimes and See BS have always been fine upstanding examples of journolist excellence.

Colbyjack on March 1, 2011 at 9:09 AM

Opps, sorry I see what you are asking.
Cindy Munford on March 1, 2011 at 8:54 AM

If you see Cindy M, tell her too bad about being banned.

Bishop on March 1, 2011 at 9:11 AM

Is it just me or are Ace and Powerline being DDoSed? Haven’t been able to load either this morning.

ElectricPhase on March 1, 2011 at 9:12 AM

Rights are given by God, not government. I know liberals have a problem with that, but arguing with truths is not going to work.

Rights, true rights cannot be taken away by any means.

tarpon on March 1, 2011 at 9:12 AM

BREAKING….

New CBS poll of greatest baseball team ever shows 48% chose the Seattle Mariners.

Looking closely at the internals, 54% of responders to the poll were born in Washington state.

angryed on March 1, 2011 at 9:15 AM

Allahpundit did a great job last night of dissecting the latest NYT/CBS poll based on its results from CBS’ reporting.

No he didn’t. He said don’t quibble with the poll internals.

I and other called him out on it immediately.

angryed on March 1, 2011 at 9:03 AM

Indeed. See AP Below;

That’s cute, and I’m sure some will quibble with the sample (36D/26R/36I and 19L/37M/36C), but even if you tweaked it to add a few more Republicans, these numbers wouldn’t shift dramatically.

Oh REALLY AP? Maybe we should spend a bit more time actually looking at the internals before making sweeping statements like that.

When a poll is basically double (and more!) overloaded on one critical demographic, it’s basically worthless and obviously designed to reach a given result.

Lying polls lie and we should be unsurprised.

wearyman on March 1, 2011 at 9:16 AM

Francis Fox-Piven: The Communist Manifesto Was ‘Really Too General’…

In 1966, Fox-Piven, along with her now-deceased husband Richard Cloward, wrote an article in the Nation magazine entitled The Weight of the Poor: A Strategy to End Poverty. The article outlined what later became known as the Cloward-Piven Strategy (and often cited by Beck), calls for income redistribution by adding people onto welfare rolls.

By the internal disruption of local bureaucratic practices, by the furor over public welfare poverty, and by the collapse of current financing arrangements, powerful forces can be generated for major economic reforms at the national level.

Insert witty screen name here on March 1, 2011 at 9:17 AM

Lourdes on March 1, 2011 at 8:52 AM

It was a phone poll. Still there are some possiblities of duplications between landlines and cell owners.

Deanna on March 1, 2011 at 8:58 AM

Ohh, O.K., thanks for pointing that out — I missed that part from the post.

BUT, the process involved that I identified (online poll pushing and how) is also possible on “phone polls” where anyone can say anything, doesn’t make it fact, like these poll results reveal…

Does CBS even call anyone in Conservative areas?

Lourdes on March 1, 2011 at 9:18 AM

The Wagner Act was passed in the 1930′s was it not? Do not know if it’s been tweaked or added to or what ever, but it must be pretty out dated and unable to apply to today’s world. Another liberal mistake? Is it worded in such a way as to make collective bargaining a ‘right’? I have heard it referred to a lot these last 2 weeks, so being too lazy to read it I can only assume it’s pretty much carte blanche for the unions? Yet, the Feds have no union so it obviously applies only to the suckers out here who have to support these union people.

jeanie on March 1, 2011 at 9:18 AM

Can’t help but to wonder if Obama is feeding the NYT our tax dollars in order to keep them afloat. That POS business has been losing hundreds of millions for years now. Money laundering?

Keemo on March 1, 2011 at 9:18 AM

Heh

KJ :)

cmsinaz on March 1, 2011 at 9:19 AM

NYT/CBS polling…how its done.

Headline: 64% believe Obama should be president for life

Polling Internals (found on page 813 of the .pdf file buried under a dozen links):

Question #2,108: What is your party affiliation?

Democrat: 938
Republican: 212
Keg: 620

Bruce MacMahon on March 1, 2011 at 9:19 AM

What a coincidence that these polls always tilt in favor of Dems.

faraway on March 1, 2011 at 9:20 AM

Can’t help but to wonder if Obama is feeding the NYT our tax dollars in order to keep them afloat. That POS business has been losing hundreds of millions for years now. Money laundering?

Keemo on March 1, 2011 at 9:18 AM

The Mexican billionaire telecommunications guy bought TNYTimes and thus, their eagerness to push Marxism-Communism in all it’s webs.

Lourdes on March 1, 2011 at 9:20 AM

The left wing media produces this mathematical garbage whenever Obama and his minions need to be propped up. This poll had a predetermined outcome and is both biased and invalid.

rplat on March 1, 2011 at 9:21 AM

These results are invalid if they do not reflect the true (or more true) proportion of D/R/I that are in the population. These pollsters only hurt themselves when then cannot adequately sample from the population. I don’t know if this is on purpose, or a methods problem that the pollsters don’t account for.

ted c on March 1, 2011 at 9:24 AM

This poll is no different than any other dem hot topic poll, a fishing expedition.

TQM38a on March 1, 2011 at 9:25 AM

These results are invalid if they do not reflect the true (or more true) proportion of D/R/I that are in the population. These pollsters only hurt themselves when then cannot adequately sample from the population. I don’t know if this is on purpose, or a methods problem that the pollsters don’t account for.

ted c on March 1, 2011 at 9:24 AM

My theory is that they are true believers in AGW. Like AGW they start with a false premise and build everthing around it and claim it legit. Or the AGW crowd followed the pollsters’ examples, either way it is pathetic.

TQM38a on March 1, 2011 at 9:26 AM

Liars figure so that figures can lie. Given the source – it’s no surprise.

GarandFan on March 1, 2011 at 9:31 AM

Does CBS even call anyone in Conservative areas?
Lourdes on March 1, 2011 at 9:18 AM

Well they claim random dialing and to have selected different areas of the country. But what does that prove? What is an area? As someone said they could have called California, New York, Washington, and Minnesota or Michigan. And then selected specific area codes from those to narrow it down even more. Yeah, definitely easy to slant any poll.

Deanna on March 1, 2011 at 9:36 AM

Oh, please, mummy, make the truth go away.

bifidis on March 1, 2011 at 9:38 AM

I am a public employee who is doing the best I can to chip away at the strong hold Dem have on the public and its workers, sustaining a Plantation Mentality on the masses.

MSGTAS on March 1, 2011 at 9:40 AM

The poll question should be as follows:

Given that unionized state employees do less work than you for more money, with you paying for it, do you want it to stay this way?

Really Right on March 1, 2011 at 9:41 AM

Indeed. See AP Below;

That’s cute, and I’m sure some will quibble with the sample (36D/26R/36I and 19L/37M/36C), but even if you tweaked it to add a few more Republicans, these numbers wouldn’t shift dramatically.

Being off by 10% in the partisan split isn’t “a few”. Good grief, God love him, but he’s a sucker for anything that’s presented as scientific “data”.

The fact that they used such a blatantly skewed sample calls into question the entire operation.

Another problem when they parse out a poll on issues like this one is that when you pull out unfortunate things from the greater context, you tend to get negative responses.

For example, a hypothetical NYT-CBS poll from 1945:

Q: Do you want to defeat Japan?
A: Yes!

Q: Do you favor an amphibious invasion that could lead to 500k-1m Allied casualties?
A: No

Q: Do you favor an extremely expensive naval blockade that could take years to succeed and will continue to expose servicemen to suicide attacks?
A: No

Q: Do you favor continuing to incinerate cities including civilian women and children with incendiaries or more powerful weapons while exposing flight crews to death and capture/torture with no guarantee of surrender?
A: I’d rather not. Why don’t they just surrender already!?

CBS conclusion: See, see, there’s eroding support for the war effort!

forest on March 1, 2011 at 9:43 AM

Why ANYONE would take seriously the results of a SeeBS/New York Slimes poll is totally beyond me. It would like standing outside a Mosque and taking a poll as to whether or not homosexuals should be stoned to death.

oldleprechaun on March 1, 2011 at 9:59 AM

As I stated in the other thread this poll is obvious socialist propaganda. Call them out and call their propaganda what it is people.

Lies broadcast to sway opinion ARE propaganda.

dogsoldier on March 1, 2011 at 10:08 AM

Count to 10 on March 1, 2011 at 8:58 AM

Precisely. The poll asks if a RIGHT should be reduced or removed. Well none of us want to see our RIGHT curtailed. It is rather like asking if motherhood should be reduced or removed.

MJBrutus on March 1, 2011 at 10:09 AM

bifidis on March 1, 2011 at 9:38 AM

Have figured out a place where:

Progressivism always triumphs.

bifidis on February 24, 2011 at 1:48 PM

Yet?

Or are you going to scurry off again?

Chip on March 1, 2011 at 10:09 AM

OT: Financial terrorism suspected in 2008 economic crash

faraway on March 1, 2011 at 9:22 AM

I saw that too. My money is on Soros.

txhsmom on March 1, 2011 at 10:09 AM

Bigger issue is “For what purpose was the poll taken?”

We’ve all seen enough of this to know that many (ok, most) political polling these days is devoted to advancing the story, not finding out what the people actually believe.

In this instance:

* The Democrats’ media branch has been relentlessly pushing the “anti-Walker/these protesters are heroes” line for weeks.

* Outside of conservative media, the connection between government employee unions and the Democrats who give them favorable terms on retirement & health care using other people’s money has been ignored.

* Outside of conservative media, the fundamental question of “Who, exactly, are public employee unions protecting their members against?” is ignored.

If more people realized their money was being used to grant government employee unions better retirement & health care benefits than they themselves have, well – things “might” be a bit different.

In short, the Media’s running its favorite game:

1) Tell one side of the story, i.e., run propaganda.

2) Take a poll which casts the propaganda in a favorable light.

3) Cite the poll as evidence the public supports the propaganda.

BD57 on March 1, 2011 at 10:11 AM

Oh, please, mummy, make the truth go away.

bifidis on March 1, 2011 at 9:38 AM

What’s this bifidis post from Nov. 6th 2010 doing in here?

VelvetElvis on March 1, 2011 at 10:12 AM

It’s funny how polls about ObamaCare were not relavent to it’s passage because people would love it once it was passed. Well, I would venture to say that people will love this bill once they learn how much money it saves the tax payer…

RedSoxNation on March 1, 2011 at 10:14 AM

The poll question should be as follows:

Given that unionized state employees do less work than you for more money, with you paying for it, do you want it to stay this way?

Really Right on March 1, 2011 at 9:41 AM

Better question yet:

Would you rather put money into your own retirement fund , or into the unionized state worker’s retirement fund?

VelvetElvis on March 1, 2011 at 10:15 AM

bifidis on March 1, 2011 at 9:38 AM

If the people really did support this viewpoint, why did they have to skew the sampling?

Chip on March 1, 2011 at 10:18 AM

The day that NYT or CBS conducts what could be considered to be an unbiased, unflawed, accurate poll is the day it rains meatballs from the sky!

pilamaye on March 1, 2011 at 8:51 AM

Can I have a meatball?

Del Dolemonte on March 1, 2011 at 10:19 AM

I think conservatives/Republicans grossly underestimate how crooked the left, including the “MSM” is willing to get to protect unions here. As Maddow said (paraphrasing) if this Wisconsin deal goes through, Democrats are history. Our tax dollars are their cash cow.

It’s not just the money. It’s the labor and other resources unions put at dems disposal. Phone banks, vehicles for GOTV efforts. I would guesstimate that 30-40% of volunteers for dem campaigns are union people.

Monkeytoe on March 1, 2011 at 10:25 AM

Oh, please, mummy, make the truth go away.

bifidis on March 1, 2011 at 9:38 AM

I know you don’t want your crooked media outlets busted for dishonest polling. But that’s why we’re here, and we’ve been busting these polls’ laughable methodology for years.

In 2008, another NYT/C-BS “poll” was busted for over-sampling Democrats too. In that poll, the Dems were over-sampled by 19 points.

And in September of 2008, a “poll” from al-AP was busted for sampling twice as many Democrats as Republicans in order to get the results they desired.

You’re boring. And dismissed.

Del Dolemonte on March 1, 2011 at 10:27 AM

The poll question should be as follows:

Given that unionized state employees do less work than you for more money, with you paying for it, do you want it to stay this way?

Really Right on March 1, 2011 at 9:41 AM

Better question yet:

Would you rather put money into your own retirement fund , or into the unionized state worker’s retirement fund?

VelvetElvis on March 1, 2011 at 10:15 AM

Or, should people be forced to join a union and forced to contribute to the Democratic party?

But I’m kind of guessing that they won’t have the balls to ask truthful questions like that.


It’s almost like the NSM is saying:

Oh, please, mummy, make the truth go away.

It’s so refreshing when Leftists start to wake up to reality.

Chip on March 1, 2011 at 10:27 AM

If the people really did support this viewpoint, why did they have to skew the sampling?

Chip on March 1, 2011 at 10:18 AM

The American public went from throwing these collectivist cretins out of office from coast to coast four months ago to swinging wildly in the other direction in full embrace of collectivist unions and gouging taxpayers. Yeah. That’s likely.

Even though Obama is still under 50%. Hmmmm. Color me…skeptical.

The reason they had to skew the sampling was because the desired outcome could not be reached if they extracted the A) the over-sampling of union members and family members in the poll B) didn’t throw in a 10 over-sampling for the Democrats.

It’s a typical NYT/CBS push poll designed to get coverage on MSM outlets in the evening news. Nothing more.

Good Lt on March 1, 2011 at 10:31 AM

Progressivism always triumphs.

bifidis on February 24, 2011 at 1:48 PM

Is this your contribution to the discussion? Brilliant.

Does your ventriloquist know you’re here?

MJBrutus on March 1, 2011 at 10:31 AM

I think conservatives/Republicans grossly underestimate how crooked the left, including the “MSM” is willing to get to protect unions here. As Maddow said (paraphrasing) if this Wisconsin deal goes through, Democrats are history. Our tax dollars are their cash cow.

It’s not just the money. It’s the labor and other resources unions put at dems disposal. Phone banks, vehicles for GOTV efforts. I would guesstimate that 30-40% of volunteers for dem campaigns are union people.

Monkeytoe on March 1, 2011 at 10:25 AM

Yes, exactly.

Every once in a while, someone proposes having Election day on Saturday, and certain parties oppose it.

Why? Mainly because certain groups have that day off and the people that make the country work are doing just that.

Now, perhaps if the Left truly wanted more voter participation, they would support such measures.

Chip on March 1, 2011 at 10:33 AM

Talk to any retailer and it will tell you exactly the demographic breakdown of its customers, down to how many pets the average person walking into their stores at 9:45am on a Wednesday in April has.

And yet Gallup can’t figure out a way to call a sample of people that is representative of society? No way this was a random sampling error. This was deliberate.

And I am still pissed off that someone like Allah just dismisses the obviously biased sample as no biggie. I expect that from Katie and Wolf, not from a lead blogger of a conservative site,

angryed on March 1, 2011 at 10:37 AM

If the people really did support this viewpoint, why did they have to skew the sampling?

Chip on March 1, 2011 at 10:18 AM

The American public went from throwing these collectivist cretins out of office from coast to coast four months ago to swinging wildly in the other direction in full embrace of collectivist unions and gouging taxpayers. Yeah. That’s likely.

Good Lt on March 1, 2011 at 10:31 AM

I’d be real curious to know how the Left would explain this sudden reversal of voter sentiment.

Chip on March 1, 2011 at 10:42 AM

OT: Financial terrorism suspected in 2008 economic crash

faraway on March 1, 2011 at 9:22 AM

I saw that too. My money is on Soros.

txhsmom on March 1, 2011 at 10:09 AM

Yep, interesting that in what was clear speculation in the article, the possibility that partisan political operatives crashed the system to give little Bammie and socialism in general a push, -was not addressed. The conclusion also seems to be -’there it is’, rather than a demand for further investigation.

I would also suggest further investigation of Chuckie Schumer, who wrote a memo that crashed Indymac in 2008 and started the ball rolling.

More, old: IndyMac Attack: Did Schumer, Paulson, Soros, and the CRL Kill the Bank and Profit From Its Collapse?

slickwillie2001 on March 1, 2011 at 10:42 AM

Makes you wonder just how much of the MSM is unionized… you can’t write anything bad about your ‘union brothers’.

That is the way it works on the Left.

ajacksonian on March 1, 2011 at 10:50 AM

slickwillie2001 on March 1, 2011 at 10:42 AM

Now why would Soros, the Chinese, or the Jihadists want a weak, inexperienced communist organizer in the White House?

Chip on March 1, 2011 at 10:51 AM

Does your ventriloquist know you’re here?

MJBrutus on March 1, 2011 at 10:31 AM

No, the ventriloquist, like the ideas bifida supports, both died a long time ago.

Del Dolemonte on March 1, 2011 at 10:59 AM

I happened to have CBS on last night when they discussed this poll. I knew that the internals would show something like this. Glad to get confirmation.

ConservativeMom on March 1, 2011 at 11:25 AM

Ed, you’re pulling a Palin here, forcing a columnist to eat the content of their own newspaper.

unclesmrgol on March 1, 2011 at 11:27 AM

Let’s see. The msm’s go out of their way to cover up for the President, his administration, and Dems as a whole. They skew their news…..by hiding the violence coming from union people, yet give scating , indepth reports of all the violence coming from tea partiers. Pffffffft.

What makes us think they won’t skew their polls as well, if it works to fit their agenda, and the outcomes seem favorable to them? It’s ALL propoganda now…and anyone that can still watch, read or listen to anyone of them, without knowing what they’re REALLY doing, deserves what’s coming, if we allow it.

capejasmine on March 1, 2011 at 11:28 AM

unclesmrgol on March 1, 2011 at 11:27 AM

Crimony, we have an escapee from the Palin QOTD thread! This thread could blow at any time now. Get a containment team here, STAT!

MJBrutus on March 1, 2011 at 11:30 AM

Progressivism always triumphs.

bifidis on February 24, 2011 at 1:48 PM

You are wrong bigdoofus.

Progressivism is just a pretty way of saying communist. Truth always triumphs. Those who don’t learn from history, are doomed to repeat it. It’s really ashame that you don’t know that.

capejasmine on March 1, 2011 at 11:30 AM

Newsbusters has a great piece this morning on how C-BS shamelessly is flogging this poll, simply because they got the results they wanted in it, while at the same time reminding us of their refusing to earlier report some of the results of another poll they took, showing that a majority of those they polled supported the new Arizoma immigration law.

Dr. Goebbels would approve, no doubt.

Del Dolemonte on March 1, 2011 at 11:34 AM

Phony polling to prop up a phony President ? I am shocked.
I thought every word uttered on the Obama Nightly News was true.

DeweyWins on March 1, 2011 at 11:37 AM

The leftists are going to produce poll after poll to show how the last election NEVER actually happened.

Note to the left, ‘You lost badly.’

Freddy on March 1, 2011 at 11:39 AM

Good going, Ed. All exactly the right points. One note on the percentage of government employee households: a substantial chunk of the 2% of Americans employed by government are in the armed forces. They have no collective bargaining “rights” and have never asked for any.

J.E. Dyer on March 1, 2011 at 12:20 PM

In addition to the other factors cited in your post, Ed, there also appears to be a bit of a skewing of the numbers by age.

The youngest voting age group (18 – 29) was over-represented in the sample, particularly to the detriment of the largest demographic group, by far, (the 45 to 64) age group.

Until the full results of the latest Census are available, the best available current numbers by age I could find were contained in the July 2009 breakdown by age and sex estimates, entitled:

Table 1. Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Groups for the United States: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009
The percentage breakdowns as stated in the poll, followed by the actual percentage breakdowns as reflected in the census numbers are as follows:

(As in the poll, the actual numbers for the age groups reflects the discount of 1% for those who the pollsters said refused to answer.)

For the 18 – 29 age group, the percentage reflected in the poll was 24%, but the Census-based percentage for this age group is only 22.09% . It is a group containing 51,832,404 persons.

For the 30 – 44 age group, the percentage reflected in the poll was 27%, while the Census-based percentage for this age group is 26.67%. It is a group of 61,418,559 persons. Of the four groups identified in the poll, it was the one closest to accurate.

For the 45 to 64 age group, the percentage reflected in the poll was 32%, but the Census-based percentage for this age group is 34.48%. It is a very large group of 79,379,432 persons, which includes the “baby-boomers. Of the four demographic groups identified by the poll, it was off by 2.5% the most statistically under-represented one, both in terms of percentages and actual numbers of persons.

For the Over 64 age group, the percentage reflected in the poll was 16%, but the Census-based percentage for this age group is 17.19%. It was the smallest of the four demographic groups representing 39,570,590 Americans. As with the 45 – 64 year age group identified by the poll, it was statistically under-represented.

The 1% of those who refused represents a total of 2,345,464 Americans, while according to the population estimate as of July 2009 of those who are 18 years old or older was 234,546,450.

More recent numbers should very slightly increase under-representation toward the oldest group, as boomers are just beginning to enter that bracket.

The skewing based on the demographics may seem slight to some, but can only be seen as adding to the already serious discrepancies you found, Ed. There is no question that this poll is seriously flawed.

Trochilus on March 1, 2011 at 1:40 PM

Rush spent an hour debunking the polls. He said they are a designed to make us question what we know to true.

karenhasfreedom on March 1, 2011 at 2:06 PM

Any one who believes a poll put out by a Leftist org i.e. CBS wants to be deceived. I keep saying that polls are put out to further the objective of the commissioner in most cases.

CCRWM on March 1, 2011 at 2:39 PM

Every once in a while, someone proposes having Election day on Saturday

Chip on March 1, 2011 at 10:33 AM

I would be in favor of the first Saturday after April 15th…

oldleprechaun on March 1, 2011 at 2:41 PM

Now why would Soros, the Chinese, or the Jihadists want a weak, inexperienced communist organizer in the White House?

Chip on March 1, 2011 at 10:51 AM

Less aggravating to manipulate?

oldleprechaun on March 1, 2011 at 2:42 PM

You’re doing the work I should be doing, LOL!

Nice job, and linked, with fleebagger video as well: ‘Update on New York Times Poll on Public Sector Unions’.

Donald Douglas on March 1, 2011 at 6:50 PM