The “Galaxy” of 2012 GOP Stars

posted at 1:30 pm on February 5, 2011 by Jazz Shaw

Nate Silver, in his role as New York Times political poll analyst, has generated a graphical analysis of the various Republican contenders for the 2012 nomination. Clearly we’re still the better part of a year away from the primaries, but what else did you really have to do this weekend aside from arguing over election predictions? Let’s take a look at the graph and then spend a moment discussing how it was crafted.
The GOP Galaxy
We can skip over the relative merit of the chances assigned to each candidate (at least until the comments begin) since Nate took each person’s prospects for winning from their Intrade betting profile. Even the author doesn’t agree with all of them, but simply uses those values as a baseline. I’ll let Nate explain that part himself.

There are two more kinds of information embedded in the chart. First, the area of each candidate’s circle is proportional to their perceived likelihood of winning the nomination, according to the Intrade betting market. Mitt Romney’s circle is drawn many times the size of the one for the relatively obscure talk-radio host Herman Cain because Intrade rates Mr. Romney many times as likely to be nominated.

(I should note that there are several cases in which I am in considerable disagreement with the bettors at Intrade about the viability of each candidate. But using their figures as the basis for drawing the circles at least lends some objectivity to the assessment.)

If we ignore the size of the relative circles – which nobody is going to agree with anyway – the more interesting aspect of this chart is the placement. The further “north” a candidate falls, the more they are considered to be a Washington “insider.” A southerly position indicates a Beltway outsider. The further left they fall, the more “moderate” they are considered, (*cough* RINO) while a position more to the right indicates a perceived traditional conservative ideology.

Recent conventional wisdom would say that Washington insiders are distinctly out of favor, and traditional campaign strategy for the GOP tends to indicate that it’s better to be considered more conservative in the primary race. By that logic, placement in the upper left quadrant – where we find Giuliani, Huntsman and Pataki – would have the absolute worst chance. Landing in the lower right quadrant, as did Palin, Bachmann and Cain, would lend one the best chance.

If we then combine placement with the size of the bubble, indicating odds for victory, we find that Sarah Palin is clearly the next Republican presidential nominee and George Pataki should begin knitting sweaters for the residents of Hell if he plans on winning. But the alternate school of thought is that you need to be able to cast the broadest net for the most supporters, so getting closer to the center of each axis offers the best path to victory. By that rationale, Tim Pawlenty is clearly the next President of the United States and we may as well just skip the whole election.

So, have at it. Whose placement or relative odds is correct on this chart and which ones are totally outside of reality? Do any of the positioning choices surprise you?


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Gingrich more conservative than Palin? In what alternate universe?

slickwillie2001 on February 5, 2011 at 3:02 PM

gary4205 on February 5, 2011 at 2:58 PM

Gary, as much as we would like to see Palin win, she cannot win. This is what she is going to need to concede, and she will do this for the sake of the Nation. She will retain her position as a leader, the one who can clearly articulate the flaws of progressivism, socialism, and the dangers to our country.

Every Patriot has a role.

It is early. Sarah knows what needs to be done.

In the interim, we must not let anyone define our candidates. Our nation is in peril and many will come and step up and claim that he/she is for America. Now is the time to pray for the gift of discernment.

Key West Reader on February 5, 2011 at 3:02 PM

There’s no difference between supporting Obama and saying “I refuse to support any candidate who won’t lose to Obama.”

Republicans could dig up Nixon’s corpse and nominate it, and I’d vote for it over Obama.

Any other position is indistinguishable from supporting Obamacare.

JohnJ on February 5, 2011 at 3:04 PM

The next president will need a crap load of GOVERNMENT Executive Experience. That pretty much makes Palin it.

I LOVE Allen West. He’d make a good pick for Sarah’s VP. But not the best.

How about Secretary of Defense Allen West? Chew on this a bit.

gary4205 on February 5, 2011 at 2:58 PM

Someone needs to re-read the Federalist Papers and all the letters that were written by Washington, Jefferson, etc.

Government experience was (and is) not necessary to lead the country … and given our financial mess, we really need someone who has been successful in running a business, not a government, where budgets actually matter …

IrishSamurai on February 5, 2011 at 3:04 PM

Does anyone seriously think Bachmann has a chance?

itsnotaboutme on February 5, 2011 at 3:05 PM

itsnotaboutme on February 5, 2011 at 3:01 PM

How about we let Dr. Kermit Gossnell define what abortion means.

Although it is difficult, we must be patient, and we must allow the Left to define itself.

Kermit Gossnell is the face of abortion.

Key West Reader on February 5, 2011 at 3:05 PM

I saw this already!, It’s posted at the Hugh Hewitt site. Quite interesting to see….

hawkman on February 5, 2011 at 3:06 PM

Does anyone seriously think Bachmann has a chance?

itsnotaboutme on February 5, 2011 at 3:05 PM

A chance at what?

Key West Reader on February 5, 2011 at 3:06 PM

I’ll bet anyone $1000 right now that Sarah Palin is the ONLY candidate who CAN’T beat Obama in 2012 …

The she’s “stupid and polarizing” narrative has already been set, and there is no way she can overcome it … she could beat Ken Jennings on Jeopardy while creating a perpetual energy source from Cold Fusion in her garage, and the narrative wouldn’t change …

She has ZERO chance of being president of the United States … and it actually kinda sad because I love her raw honesty and principles … but she has ZERO chance.

IrishSamurai on February 5, 2011 at 2:46 PM

I’ll take that bet!

Sarah Palin is the only one who CAN beat Obama. She’s been whipping him like a rented mule for two years straight. They live in fear of her.

You don’t know this, but some of Obama’s key advisors fought against Sarah in Alaska before she was elected Governor. They worked for former governor Tony Knowles, who ran again. She destroyed him while winning the governorship. (this was after she destroyed the sitting REPUBLICAN governor in the primary)

This is why the Obama team went crazy when McCain announced her as his VP pick. They KNEW what she was capable of.

She’s much better, much stronger now.

BTW, I DO NOT take checks. You can send cash or I’ll take Pay-Pal for that $1,000.

gary4205 on February 5, 2011 at 3:06 PM

itsnotaboutme on February 5, 2011 at 3:01 PM

Pretty sure the 9th and 10th amendments mean the same thing to you as they do me … or are we actually living out Orwell’s Animal Farm (with Obama sometimes I feel we are) …

Abortion
Gay Marriage
Marijuana Legalization
ETC.

All STATE’S RIGHTS issues … the federal government has no business in these issues. Don’t like what your state supports/rejects … MOVE or get elected to LOCAL office and change your state’s laws …

Stop trying to be a liberal NANNY stater, mandating your views on me …

-Irish

IrishSamurai on February 5, 2011 at 3:07 PM

IrishSamurai on February 5, 2011 at 3:04 PM

So, who do think is the best of the 12 mentioned here??

ConservativePartyNow on February 5, 2011 at 3:07 PM

Question:

Why are we defining ourselves and giving the Obama Campaign something to study?

Key West Reader on February 5, 2011 at 3:09 PM

BTW, I DO NOT take checks. You can send cash or I’ll take Pay-Pal for that $1,000.

gary4205 on February 5, 2011 at 3:06 PM

Good call … those pesky 1099′s are a PITA …

As for Palin, I’d love to see elected, but I stand by my offer … if she gets the nomination, Obama wins in a Reagan/Mondale 1984 landslide …

IrishSamurai on February 5, 2011 at 3:09 PM

Romney is clearly outside the beltway. He is even major critic of Washington. Remember “Washington is broken”? That was Romney’s line. Don’t see how he qualifies as Washington insider. Perhaps Nate Silver is placing based on insider preferences, not the candidates actual history.

I could quibble about the moderate thing with Romney too because he would be conservative on everything Republicans care about as president. Count on it.

Lori on February 5, 2011 at 3:10 PM

This graph was brought to YOU by the New York Times.

I’d say … eh.. Im “mum” from this point forward.

Key West Reader on February 5, 2011 at 3:10 PM

So, who do think is the best of the 12 mentioned here??

ConservativePartyNow on February 5, 2011 at 3:07 PM

Pretty easy actually …

Cain or Romney

Either one would destroy Obama in debates on the economy (what 2012 will hinge on … still) … and with West or Bolton as the VP, the foreign policy cred would be through the roof …

IrishSamurai on February 5, 2011 at 3:12 PM

gary4205 on February 5, 2011 at 3:06 PM

She’s been living rent-free in obama’s head since the RNC convention in 2008, because he knows that eventually he will have to face her, and does not how to defeat her, because no matter what the MSM says about her, she just keeps coming back

ConservativePartyNow on February 5, 2011 at 3:13 PM

Gary, as much as we would like to see Palin win, she cannot win. This is what she is going to need to concede, and she will do this for the sake of the Nation. She will retain her position as a leader, the one who can clearly articulate the flaws of progressivism, socialism, and the dangers to our country.

Every Patriot has a role.

It is early. Sarah knows what needs to be done.

In the interim, we must not let anyone define our candidates. Our nation is in peril and many will come and step up and claim that he/she is for America. Now is the time to pray for the gift of discernment.

Key West Reader on February 5, 2011 at 3:02 PM

That’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever read. You are WAY smarter than that. Or at least I thought you were.

The only reason she won’t win is because people like you think she can’t.

Who the hell else CAN win?

Have you seen the bunch of morons lusting for the GOP nomination?

The ones that aren’t progressives, democrats hiding in our party, are unelectable losers.

Who the hell else is capable of leading the nation?

Sarah Palin isn’t some prom queen cheerleader here to rah-rah some dipsh!t to a win. She’s also not here to do all of the heavy lifting while some GOP show pony walks in at the last minute, having not done a g-damned thing, to take office.

Sarah Palin is a leader. A leader’s leader in fact.

She’s not a back bencher. never has been. She’s the one who runs the show. Always has been.

There is no mythical candidate who is going to magically appear. We know who’s who, and other than Palin they all suck and suck BAD.

I hate to say it, but comments like yours make me sick.

We HAVE the only one with the spirit, experience, and ABILITY to save this country. The time for day dreaming about mythical candidates and unicorns crapping skittles is over.

You want to save the Republic? Get behind Sarah, or well, get out of the way.

gary4205 on February 5, 2011 at 3:17 PM

You want to save the Republic? Get behind Sarah, or well, get out of the way.

gary4205 on February 5, 2011 at 3:17 PM

Or you can support the candidate that you think is most qualified in the primaries and then get behind the eventual winner.
That’s what I intend to do.

annoyinglittletwerp on February 5, 2011 at 3:22 PM

gary4205 on February 5, 2011 at 3:17 PM

I met a bunch of people like you in 2007/2008 … all cheering on the “first black” president-elect.

Palin is a good leader, but she is not going “to save the Republic” …

And to your question about “who the hell else is capable of leading the nation” (better than Palin)? Here’s a quick rundown right off the top of my head:

Paul Ryan
Allen West
Mike Pence
Herman Cain
Mitt Romney

/You’re either a ff plant or the greatest troll ever …

IrishSamurai on February 5, 2011 at 3:25 PM

Anyone else find it hilarious that Trump is more of a moderate insider than Paul?

Vyce on February 5, 2011 at 3:29 PM

Or you can support the candidate that you think is most qualified in the primaries and then get behind the eventual winner.
That’s what I intend to do.

annoyinglittletwerp on February 5, 2011 at 3:22 PM

That’s what the primaries are for…Cheers to that!

*whispers* Daniels 2012

JetBoy on February 5, 2011 at 3:33 PM

IrishSamurai on February 5, 2011 at 3:25 PM

Paul Ryan. If only…

ladyingray on February 5, 2011 at 3:35 PM

Someone needs to re-read the Federalist Papers and all the letters that were written by Washington, Jefferson, etc.

Government experience was (and is) not necessary to lead the country … and given our financial mess, we really need someone who has been successful in running a business, not a government, where budgets actually matter …

IrishSamurai on February 5, 2011 at 3:04 PM

The more of your posts I read, the dumber I am convinced you are.

Yeah, I’ve read and re-read the Federalist Papers.

And yeah, it’s going to take someone who understands how government works, and how to work with legislators.

Sarah Palin has this in spades.

She took Wasilla, a hole in the wall, and turned it into the most modern, fastest growing city in the state.

As governor she balanced budgets and cleaned up massive corruption. REPUBLICAN corruption.

She also took on Big Oil. Kicked the asses of CEOs of the “Big Three” oil companies in Alaska. That was so epic Kay Cashman, an oil industry insider, wrote a book about how bad she kicked their asses! “Sarah Takes On Big Oil” Amazon has it. Read the damned thing!

BTW, Sarah’s budget, and scope of government were about triple of what Bill Clinton handled as Governor of Arkansas.

We may not like the guy, but he was a pretty effective president because he KNEW how government worked.

The mess we are in will require someone who can navigate treacherous waters.

Sarah proved she can do that as Governor.

When she took office Republicans were still being perp walked by the FBI on their way to prison, and she had seen to it the Alaska GOP Chairman had paid the largest fine in state history!

The Republicans hated her and the democrats well, they were democrats.

AND YET, despite having an incredibly aggressive agenda, she fulfilled every single campaign promise and did it in just two years.

That takes LEADERSHIP. Powerful leadership, and a steel spine.

Sarah has it, the others don’t even know what it means.

BTW, the Alaska GOP hated her so much, they wouldn’t even put her photo on their website!

And yet, she was the most popular and effective Governor in the nation. Until she ran for Vice President, and the media attacked her every hour on the hour, her approval rating was in the low 90s-high 80s for two years straight.

You don’t do that by not getting results.

BTW, let’s double that bet. Make it $2K.

I love taking money from fools.

gary4205 on February 5, 2011 at 3:36 PM

JetBoy on February 5, 2011 at 3:33 PM

Why should I give Daniels’ a second look? Serious question…I know nothing about him.

ladyingray on February 5, 2011 at 3:37 PM

…Sarah Palin is the only one who CAN beat Obama. She’s been whipping him like a rented mule for two years straight. They live in fear of her…

That’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever read. You are WAY smarter than that. Or at least I thought you were.

Putting 2 and 2 together for ya.

churchill995 on February 5, 2011 at 3:39 PM

Why should I give Daniels’ a second look? Serious question…I know nothing about him.

Amazing how some people answer their own questions…

churchill995 on February 5, 2011 at 3:41 PM

/You’re either a ff plant or the greatest troll ever …

IrishSamurai on February 5, 2011 at 3:25 PM

Been here for years. Never seen you before.

Hell, lets just make that bet $3K!

I’ll spend the last week of January 2013 in the Bahamas living it up on your money!!

Sarah Palin will be our next president, and there isn’t anything you can do about.

gary4205 on February 5, 2011 at 3:42 PM

/You’re either a ff plant or the greatest troll ever …

IrishSamurai on February 5, 2011 at 3:25 PM

Gary can be quite the gentleman at times-but on THIS subject it’s best not to waste your breath.
He’s a Gov. Palin true-believer and won’t consider any other candidate.

annoyinglittletwerp on February 5, 2011 at 3:45 PM

He’s a Gov. Palin true-believer and won’t consider any other candidate.

annoyinglittletwerp on February 5, 2011 at 3:45 PM

Thanks … I’ve been here longer than Gary. I do a lot of reading (lurking) and only post here and there … and generally try to stay out of the Obama-love, er, I mean Palin-love fests …

The Palinistas are as bad as the Obots … an exercise of reasoning with the unreasonable.

IrishSamurai on February 5, 2011 at 3:55 PM

Amazing how some people answer their own questions…

churchill995 on February 5, 2011 at 3:41 PM

I’m interested in why JetBoy likes Daniels. I’m in terested in his opinion. When I want your opinion, I’ll give it to you.

ladyingray on February 5, 2011 at 3:58 PM

gary4205 on February 5, 2011 at 3:17 PM

Gary, yes, she can win, but not in this cycle.

Gary, we have to unite and understand that we’re running against the wind. Not only that, but we’re running against foreign influence including communism, leftism and obamism. Sarah has a very important and very influential place and she will be of great value to our Nation as we move to defeat the scourge that envelopes us.

Mitt Romney is a tool, a puppet. Newt Gingrich is a great guy but has a lot of baggage.

Obama is a “black” or “African American” president. The first… blah blah blah.

Herman Cain is an accomplished businessman who knows the ropes. Alan West is a Military man who knows what’s best.

Cain and West… They know what’s best.

Key West Reader on February 5, 2011 at 4:03 PM

The Palinistas are as bad as the Obots … an exercise of reasoning with the unreasonable.

IrishSamurai on February 5, 2011 at 3:55 PM

Some of them are cool cats-we agree to disagree-but there are a few that…

annoyinglittletwerp on February 5, 2011 at 4:04 PM

Cain and West… They know what’s best.

Key West Reader on February 5, 2011 at 4:03 PM

I see what you did there! ;)

ladyingray on February 5, 2011 at 4:04 PM

Whatever happens.

We will not allow the Obamaligned Media to define, shape, pick, prod, propose or put forth the GOP nominee’s for the 2012 campaign.

We don’t need petitions signed.

Just a statement of fact. Jack.

Key West Reader on February 5, 2011 at 4:13 PM

Cain and West… They know what’s best.

Key West Reader on February 5, 2011 at 4:03 PM

Don’t waste your time on Gary, his true devotion to Palin has blinded him to the plight of our country. He would rather support someone who can’t win this cycle and give us 4 more years of Barry that even consider alternative candidates such as Cain and West.

We need fresh faces, and Cain and West could be those faces.

Knucklehead on February 5, 2011 at 4:19 PM

Romney, Thune, Paul, Gingrich, Huckabee, Guliani – NO! under any circumstances.

madmonkphotog on February 5, 2011 at 4:21 PM

PLEASE. Campaign like crazy for your primary choice, but vow to support the party nominee when Nov 2012 rolls around.

msactionjackson on February 5, 2011 at 2:55 PM

NO!!! Campaign and vote for conservatice SENs & REPs, but do not vote for a squishy RINO.

If we hold the houses, we can neutralize Obambi as POTUS. Put in a squish RINO, and we’ll slide even more as the GOP scrambles to the pork trough.

AH_C on February 5, 2011 at 4:27 PM

The Palinistas are as bad as the Obots … an exercise of reasoning with the unreasonable.

IrishSamurai on February 5, 2011 at 3:55 PM

Well I think I’m pretty reasonable, but if poll numbers are how you pick your candidates, then I think you deserve another four years of Obama.

gryphon202 on February 5, 2011 at 4:29 PM

We need fresh faces, and Cain and West could be those faces.

Knucklehead on February 5, 2011 at 4:19 PM

I’m leaning towards supporting Cain if Palin ends up not running (which is still a distinct possibility). I think Cain is the second-best candidate in terms of who mirrors my personal beliefs.

gryphon202 on February 5, 2011 at 4:30 PM

I’m leaning towards supporting Cain if Palin ends up not running (which is still a distinct possibility). I think Cain is the second-best candidate in terms of who mirrors my personal beliefs.

gryphon202 on February 5, 2011 at 4:30 PM

It’s good to see you keeping an open mind.

Knucklehead on February 5, 2011 at 4:33 PM

It’s good to see you keeping an open mind.

Knucklehead on February 5, 2011 at 4:33 PM

Oh I am quite adamant in my support for Sarah Palin, but that doesn’t change the practical fact that Herman Cain has floated an exploratory committee. Sarah Palin hasn’t. I don’t share Gary’s “Sarah is going to win” zeal, but as I have said before, I’m not in the “anyone but Obama” crowd, either.

gryphon202 on February 5, 2011 at 4:36 PM

Key West Reader on February 5, 2011 at 2:58 PM

Look dumazz. I love Cain & West. If it were up to me, West would have been promoted instead of retired.

Fact is, most potential runners are playing a game of ‘you first’ to guage what the field would shape up into. Everything is in flux and just speculation on what-ifs. Take Huntsman, most of the buzz is purely based on his moves and not what he said.

That said, I was playing along with the chart. As it stands now, I have no doubt that Cain will rack up some points the the proportional States. Between now and next year, he could gain more name recognition and shape into a big player, much as RR did in ’76/’80.

I hope so, cuz I believe DeMint, SP & Bachmann would throw their weight behind him, more than any of the other contenders in the above chart.

Bottomline, if a RINO gets the 2012 nomination, I will only vote down-ticket and not him/her. I almost did the same in ’08 and voted McVain at the last minute, in part due to SP being 2nd on the ticket. Yeah, I was hoping for any reason, SP could take over from him sooner than later. Had he picked anyone else, including Lieberman – forget it, I wasn’t voting for that mavericky RINO.

AH_C on February 5, 2011 at 4:43 PM

I’m not in the “anyone but Obama” crowd, either.

gryphon202 on February 5, 2011 at 4:36 PM

That’s why it’s so important that we focus on the Republican’s keeping the House and taking control of the Senate in 2012. If Barry does win, at least we can neuter him.

Knucklehead on February 5, 2011 at 4:45 PM

That’s why it’s so important that we focus on the Republican’s keeping the House and taking control of the Senate in 2012. If Barry does win, at least we can neuter him.

Knucklehead on February 5, 2011 at 4:45 PM

And that is why I am voting in my state’s primary in 2012. If there is another favored candidate for my fellow conservatives, I trust they will all be voting alongside me. No matter where loyalties lie, this is far too important to trust to the general-election voters.

All that said, I am not choosing my candidate based on poll numbers, political gamesmanship, or anything other than principle.

gryphon202 on February 5, 2011 at 4:48 PM

Sarah Palin, Combat Veteran.

Awesome food for thought by American Thinker.

powerpro on February 5, 2011 at 4:50 PM

Well I think I’m pretty reasonable, but if poll numbers are how you pick your candidates, then I think you deserve another four years of Obama.

gryphon202 on February 5, 2011 at 4:29 PM

Stealing from another HA poster the other night,

“I follow leaders, not polls.”

I still find it stunning how willingly some folks give up without a fight because of polling numbers this far out. Before any campaigns have started. Before any debates. Before we have any candidates.

Either Sarah Palin will run and win or she won’t. But throwing in the towel… actually worse than that… DEMANDING that people give up or be declared a Palin bot is really pathetic.

My feelings on this for those folks… for your choice. Stand up for who you believe in and fight like hell for them. Stop with the whole discouragement/isolation campaign (“she can’t win/if you believe she can win, you’re a loon”) against those who like Palin.

I believe she can and will. Time will tell one way or the other… but folks…stop declaring her campaign dead when she hasn’t even announced yet.

Sheesh.

powerpro on February 5, 2011 at 4:58 PM

Some of them are cool cats-we agree to disagree-but there are a few that…

annoyinglittletwerp on February 5, 2011 at 4:04 PM

You can officially count me out of the cool cat crowd now. I think you have crossed the line with your bomb throwing generalities about Palin cultism.

Why should we be cool and reasonable when you lash out with furious rants about Palin Worshipers, Palin Deism, the need for Mother Figures and other forms of deflection to avoid the substantiative? I have seen your work on this very thread as well as many other threads.

Your flame wars CREATE the discord which you admonish.

Geochelone on February 5, 2011 at 5:03 PM

Geochelone on February 5, 2011 at 5:03 PM

I meant this vvvv Thread.
http://hotair.com/archives/2011/02/04/live-palins-address-at-reagan-ranch/

Geochelone on February 5, 2011 at 5:05 PM

The Palinistas are as bad as the Obots … an exercise of reasoning with the unreasonable.

IrishSamurai on February 5, 2011 at 3:55 PM

And the anti-Palinistas are as bad as Keith Olbermann.

See how easy it is to make a comparative declaration.

Just follow this rule: X is as bad as Y.

Geochelone on February 5, 2011 at 5:13 PM

Sarah Palin, Combat Veteran.

Awesome food for thought by American Thinker.

powerpro on February 5, 2011 at 4:50 PM

Yes Sarah is getting more flak than anyone has in public life. When Mel Gibson was criticized for producing “The Passion of the Christ”, he smiled and laughed it off. But I think it had a large hand in destroying him. You can’t have millions of people hate you and it mean nothing.

They’ve thrown everything they can at Sarah. Some of it had to hurt. Everyone has their weak spots. We may not know exactly what they are, but they’re there. Everything about her has been mocked over and over again. The way she looks and sounds, her family, her intellect, her heart. She’s been lied about in every way. For her to withstand all these attacks, to “reload” rather than “retreat” shows a great strength of character, a mythic strength, of which heroes are made.

Yes I’m a Palinista. Not a Palinbot. If not her, someone like her. I think she has unique personal qualities I’d like to see in a Prez. But any effective conservative would do.

Paul-Cincy on February 5, 2011 at 5:14 PM

…any effective conservative would do.

Paul-Cincy on February 5, 2011 at 5:14 PM

Too damn bad there are so few of them.

gryphon202 on February 5, 2011 at 5:20 PM

I know I must be addicted to these threads because I’m bored to tears with them and envision a year of political Chinese water torture until the primaries begin, yet I keep coming back. I need help.

My name is pugwriter and I am a politaholic.

pugwriter on February 5, 2011 at 5:20 PM

My name is pugwriter and I am a politaholic.

pugwriter on February 5, 2011 at 5:20 PM

Hi Pugwriter. My name is Gryph, and I’m a politiholic.

gryphon202 on February 5, 2011 at 5:21 PM

JohnJ on February 5, 2011 at 3:04 PM

Your reasoning is defective. Captain amnesty lost because he is a RINO. A liberal lite.

dogsoldier on February 5, 2011 at 5:28 PM

Is there any significance to the fact that the horses are going around the track, clockwise instead of counterclockwise? In other words, the wrong way?

slp on February 5, 2011 at 5:47 PM

Pawlenty seems to have the advantage now since he is not considered absolutely horrible by any one group in the Party. Thats how McCain won, because the Southerners hated Romney and the libertarianish conservatives hated Huck.

Speedwagon82 on February 5, 2011 at 6:07 PM

Your flame wars CREATE the discord which you admonish.

Geochelone on February 5, 2011 at 5:03 PM

I’m sorry that you feel that way. I just think it’s important that those of us who are unwilling to jump on the Palin bandwagon make our voices heard.
As far as the other thing-There ARE Palin cultists-I don’t think of you as one(they’re very few here actually)-and they are doing her no favors.

annoyinglittletwerp on February 5, 2011 at 6:08 PM

There ARE Palin cultists-I don’t think of you as one(they’re very few here actually)-and they are doing her no favors.

annoyinglittletwerp on February 5, 2011 at 6:08 PM

If you really believe, as you claim, that there are so few “Palin cultists” at Hot Air, then why do you bring up “Palin cultism” and “Palin worship” and “Palin mother complexes” on every Palin thread?

steebo77 on February 5, 2011 at 6:19 PM

As far as the other thing-There ARE Palin cultists-I don’t think of you as one(they’re very few here actually)-and they are doing her no favors.

annoyinglittletwerp on February 5, 2011 at 6:08 PM

You really are annoying.

darwin on February 5, 2011 at 6:23 PM

If you really believe, as you claim, that there are so few “Palin cultists” at Hot Air, then why do you bring up “Palin cultism” and “Palin worship” and “Palin mother complexes” on every Palin thread?

steebo77 on February 5, 2011 at 6:19 PM

I think she attacks Palin supporters instead of Palin herself. It’s quite obvious she has a disdain for Palin, even though she throws in disclaimers like “she’s a good person” from time to time.

Always the same garbage. Cultists … blah, blah, blah

darwin on February 5, 2011 at 6:26 PM

It’s quite obvious she has a disdain for Palin, even though she throws in disclaimers like “she’s a good person” from time to time.

darwin on February 5, 2011 at 6:26 PM

I don’t want to speak for annoyinglittletwerp, but I do believe disdain is one of the emotions of which she is incapable.
/sarc

steebo77 on February 5, 2011 at 6:31 PM

Is there a website with a chart that states all these
candidates’ positions and experience? I see everyone
arguing and it seems that from many of the comments, more
facts are required.

Amjean on February 5, 2011 at 6:46 PM

annoyinglittletwerp on February 5, 2011 at 6:08 PM

Some of them are cool cats-we agree to disagree-but there are
a few that…

annoyinglittletwerp on February 5, 2011 at 4:04 PM

You can officially count me out of the cool cat crowd now. I think you have crossed the line with your bomb throwing generalities about Palin cultism.

Why should we be cool and reasonable when you lash out with furious rants about Palin Worshipers, Palin Deism, the need for Mother Figures and other forms of deflection to avoid the substantiative? I have seen your work on this very thread as well as many other threads.

Your flame wars CREATE the discord which you admonish.

Geochelone on February 5, 2011 at 5:03 PM

Let me add that your bombastic characterizations do nothing to set any kind of example for rational discourse.

You define “cool cats” as those who sit in silence while you stink up threads with invective and vitriol.

NO MORE. I am no longer a “cool cat”. I am your FOE.

Geochelone on February 5, 2011 at 7:18 PM

As far as the other thing-There ARE Palin cultists-I don’t think of you as one(they’re very few here actually)-and they are doing her no favors.

annoyinglittletwerp on February 5, 2011 at 6:08 PM

Well…with respect… if you really feel that way about Palin’s more enthusiastic supporters, then why not just ignore them?

Like I said earlier…IMHO I think folks should support who they want to support rather than go after those who support people they don’t favor. Back your guy or gal with all your heart and fight for them (even if it means that you too will be viewed as a zealot by those who support other candidates).

And may the best candidate win.

powerpro on February 5, 2011 at 7:27 PM

For her to withstand all these attacks, to “reload” rather than “retreat” shows a great strength of character, a mythic strength, of which heroes are made.

Yes I’m a Palinista. Not a Palinbot. …

Paul-Cincy on February 5, 2011 at 5:14 PM

She’s practically a goddess.

DarkCurrent on February 5, 2011 at 8:03 PM

She’s practically a goddess.

DarkCurrent on February 5, 2011 at 8:03 PM

No just a really strong person who can withstand a lot more than most.

powerpro on February 5, 2011 at 8:09 PM

I’m almost to the point that unless someone like DeMint runs, I’m not even going to vote the top of the ticket.

hawkdriver on February 5, 2011 at 8:25 PM

I’m almost to the point that unless someone like DeMint runs, I’m not even going to vote the top of the ticket.

hawkdriver on February 5, 2011 at 8:25 PM

DeMint…rofl anyone from “market research” should be automatically disqualified from running for public office…

equanimous on February 5, 2011 at 9:01 PM

I’m prepared to agree with those who say Palin has no chance of beating Obama….if she loses the GOP Primary.

The same may be said for Romney and Huckabee and perhaps Johnson, Huntsman and yes Gingrich. I don’t see any of the others having a chance. Some of these choices – Barbour, Trump, Thune, Paul and Santorum are riotous.

Basilsbest on February 5, 2011 at 9:11 PM

I’m almost to the point that unless someone like DeMint runs, I’m not even going to vote the top of the ticket.
hawkdriver on February 5, 2011 at 8:25 PM

Dumbest post of the decade. If Obama is re-elected I’m holding you personally responsible.

Basilsbest on February 5, 2011 at 9:14 PM

Mike Huckabee is not the southern regional candidate that some think. Mike Huckabee is trending upward in the polls across the nation.

Perhaps he is in the best placed position on Nate Silver’s graphic: Center Right Outsider.

texasconserv on February 5, 2011 at 9:33 PM

Dumbest post of the decade. If Obama is re-elected I’m holding you personally responsible.

Basilsbest on February 5, 2011 at 9:14 PM

Read some of your own. There aren’t many true Conservatives in the entire list. Few of them would be much better than President Obama considering their performance over the Lame Duck session.

hawkdriver on February 5, 2011 at 10:42 PM

Read some of your own. There aren’t many true Conservatives in the entire list. Few of them would be much better than President Obama considering their performance over the Lame Duck session.hawkdriver on February 5, 2011 at 10:42 PM

New dumbest point of the decade. Biden would be an improvement over Obama.

Basilsbest on February 5, 2011 at 10:51 PM

New dumbest point of the decade. Biden would be an improvement over Obama.

Basilsbest on February 5, 2011 at 10:51 PM

Sure, run along and find a Republican man with a backbone. Who was that defending the Conservative women who have been carrying the water for the party for the last two years? Oh yeah, DeMint. Maybe Jindal.

But really, who’s the candidate you have in mind that isn’t afraid of the media or the Democrats? If my comments are so dumb, school me. Who do you truly admire in the field?

hawkdriver on February 5, 2011 at 11:03 PM

Just saw this. Why would anyone pay any attention to how Nate Silver, a NYT liberal, assigns “conservative” versus “moderate” values to Republicans? This is nonsense.

chris999 on February 5, 2011 at 11:14 PM

If my comments are so dumb, school me.Who do you truly admire in the field?

My pleasure. Wrong question. The question is: which of them would be (infinitely) better than Obama? And the answer is: every one of them. Consider yourself schooled.

Basilsbest on February 5, 2011 at 11:22 PM

Basilsbest on February 5, 2011 at 11:22 PM

Stupid answer. Very much a cop out too. You don’t believe there is one that you admire.

I’ll tell you mine. I truly admire DeMint and Jindal.

Is that hard?

hawkdriver on February 5, 2011 at 11:30 PM

Is that hard?

hawkdriver on February 5, 2011 at 11:30 PM

Must be.

hawkdriver on February 5, 2011 at 11:42 PM

Sarah Palin, Combat Veteran.

Awesome food for thought by American Thinker.

powerpro on February 5, 2011 at 4:50 PM

Excerpt:

Mitt Romney can’t even bother to lead from the rear. He’s hanging around the country club, eating soggy cucumber-and-mayonnaise sandwiches, and waiting for Sarah to win the war. Then he’ll gallop on to the battlefield, hair stylist in tow, and flash his Dudley Do Right grin. Naturally, conservative pundits will traipse along and dutifully applaud his “gravitas” and outstanding presidential “qualifications.” So much worthier than Sarah, don’t you know!

ROFLOL, yet I would have heartedly voted for him in ’08. But after experiencing Obambi, Mitt can forget it for ’12. In 2012, we need a leader to roll back spending as far back as we can. He’ll make a fine POTUS when things are stable, but not when there’s work to pull us back from the brink of fiscal & regulatory destruction.

AH_C on February 6, 2011 at 12:08 AM

Is that hard?

hawkdriver on February 5, 2011 at 11:30 PM

Must be.

hawkdriver on February 5, 2011 at 11:42 PM

Oh sure, if someone doesn’t respond to a question posted at 11:30 pm, it’s because the question is too hard.

The answer is that someone who says they are not going to vote unless someone like their favorite candidate is the nominee is dumber than dumb. How much damage does Obama have to do for people like you to understand that whoever the nominee is, that person will be infinitely better than Obama?

I’m almost to the point that unless someone like DeMint runs, I’m not even going to vote the top of the ticket.
hawkdriver on February 5, 2011 at 8:25 PM

Basilsbest on February 6, 2011 at 5:35 AM

Lets not “put the cart before the horse” as my grandmother used to say.

Who are we voting for in the primary? Hopefully, candidates
will have solid records to compare in small business and government management.

Who has performed the best in being a “servant of the people”? Who has the testicular fortitude to deal with
the mounting debt, US gas & oil exploration, job creation,
excessive regulation which affects small business; who has
the brains, the will, the fighting spirit, the steel spine to deal with the crooks in Washington?

Since, hopefully, more people use their brains than not, we will get a great candidate.

Then Obama can run on his record and vision for America.

Should be a slam dunk for conservatives if Americans use their brains.

Amjean on February 6, 2011 at 8:11 AM

Oh sure, if someone doesn’t respond to a question posted at 11:30 pm, it’s because the question is too hard.

You were exchanging back and forth until then. It was a simple question in the first place. My bad. For the mouth on ya, you’re very sensitive.

The answer is that someone who says they are not going to vote unless someone like their favorite candidate is the nominee is dumber than dumb. How much damage does Obama have to do for people like you to understand that whoever the nominee is, that person will be infinitely better than Obama?

I’m almost to the point that unless someone like DeMint runs, I’m not even going to vote the top of the ticket.
hawkdriver on February 5, 2011 at 8:25 PM

Basilsbest on February 6, 2011 at 5:35 AM

I need to be more like you guys. Okay, here goes. And you’re a moron for pursuing a snarky remark for a full day because I said I’m “almost” to the point of something. You’re a idiot because you think you’re cute in sidestepping a single question, a simple question about who you admire, who you think might be worthy of leading the pack in the Fall.

Do you want me to just post your predictable response?

“Wrong answer stupid! You just don’t get it stupid. Anyone is better than Obama, Stupid”.

Yadda, yadda, yadda…

Who is better than Obama and why?

God, you have to love what this site has turned into. You can’t post without calling someone a name or telling them they’re stupid. Here my final on the exchange. They’re all “not” most empathically “not” a whole lot better than Obama.

I’m worried that the guy I pulled for in the last primaries (Romney) wouldn’t be serious about getting rid of Obamacare because of his past track record in Mass with state run care.

I’m worried than a guy like Linsey Graham will open the borders wider than the great outdoors themself and make about 12 million anchors on our society full voting members.

Lets see, we have Paul in there that thinks his military has systematically commented war crimes and wants us to withdrawal all aid from Israel. (There’s another in the field that hints at that kind of action)

Gingrich and Graham go back and forth about supporting carbon unit taxes and about a quarter of them are open to other idiotic “Green” legislation. Not a one has the balls to openly stand up against the media with reasoned debate (Basil, that’s where people discuss without insults for your information) because almost the entire field has conceded that every Green issues has to be addressed as if it deserves serious and complete consideration.

And “except” for the few Social Conservatives at the top of the page that I really do admire, that most of you say don’t have a snowballs chance in He11 of winning, any one of them will cow to “any” bleeding heart media liberal issue for fear of fear of losing the mystical moderates.

What is truly scary is the few talking about more gun control since Arizona. Are you kidding? And we’ll never get back to a point where we turn back the number of abortions in this country because save for Christie, no one lately has had the scrot to stand up to special interest like Planned Parenthood. They do the Donks work for them.

I could go on.

But please, be my guest and go on bashing President Obama without being critical of our own candidates. That doesn’t improve narrowing down the “Conservative” field for me though.

Am I supposed to call you a moron again now? Not sure how much insult is appropriate. I appreciate you schooling me though in it.

hawkdriver on February 6, 2011 at 8:13 AM

retty easy actually …

Cain or Romney

Either one would destroy Obama in debates on the economy (what 2012 will hinge on … still) … and with West or Bolton as the VP, the foreign policy cred would be through the roof …

IrishSamurai on February 5, 2011 at 3:12 PM

I would agree. Those would be my top two choices.

ROFLOL, yet I would have heartedly voted for him in ’08. But after experiencing Obambi, Mitt can forget it for ’12. In 2012, we need a leader to roll back spending as far back as we can. He’ll make a fine POTUS when things are stable, but not when there’s work to pull us back from the brink of fiscal & regulatory destruction.

AH_C on February 6, 2011 at 12:08 AM

When Mitt Romney was elected govenor of Massachusetts, the state had a 3 billion dollar deficit. When he left office, the state had a 2 billion dollar surplus.

We need Mitt because he’s the kind of guy who can fix institutions when they are financially unstable and make them financially sound again.

Conservative Samizdat on February 6, 2011 at 8:43 AM

We need Mitt because he’s the kind of guy who can fix institutions when they are financially unstable and make them financially sound again.

Conservative Samizdat on February 6, 2011 at 8:43 AM

It’s not rocket science. Plus, I’m not sure Mitt has the backbone to say the unpleasant things that need to be said. He’s more a politician than leader.

darwin on February 6, 2011 at 8:48 AM

darwin on February 6, 2011 at 8:48 AM

I still like Mitt. But you’re right. Where was his or any other strong voice when it was needed over the last two years?

hawkdriver on February 6, 2011 at 8:56 AM

Of course using the InTrade odds makes sense if objectivity is what you’re after and they would be as close as you get, but all you get there is partimutuel consensus just like at the track. So disagreements are the margins around which the professional handicapper operates, and thrives.

The axis placement is pure opinion and there are tea leaves to be interpreted there as to the perceptions the NYT would like to project at this early date. Are they trying to sink Romney and Thune by calling them severe insiders? The Times is overvaluing it’s impact on the Republican electorate. Maybe the X axis should be labeled “More likely to read the NYT vs. less Likely”. The Y axis looks like a one-issue axis, abortion, And why Ron Paul is not off in the empty space around that chart somewhere is a mystery. He is out there.

As a handicapper though, it looks like Trump and Gingrich are severely overvalued by the InTraders right now, and if anyone puts together an index that bets AGAINST those two before their circles deflate then they’d have winner.

curved space on February 6, 2011 at 9:03 AM

Where was his or any other strong voice when it was needed over the last two years?

hawkdriver on February 6, 2011 at 8:56 AM

Mitt would have boosted his chances enormously just by coming out and condemning the media and left after the Tucson shooting. Instead we heard nothing.

I dunno, maybe his plan is to come out like gang busters and he’s keeping quiet until then. If his plan is to just play it safe … I think he’s lost already.

darwin on February 6, 2011 at 9:03 AM

I think he’s lost already.

darwin on February 6, 2011 at 9:03 AM

Well, I hope none have “lost” already. I’m struggling to find a candidate that, like I said, isn’t just “better than President Obama”. I want someone that excites like Palin and can debate the Donk under the table like Cheney.

hawkdriver on February 6, 2011 at 10:14 AM

The horses are running the wrong way… is that photo flopped?

afotia on February 6, 2011 at 10:16 AM

The horses are running the wrong way… is that photo flopped?

afotia on February 6, 2011 at 10:16 AM

An analogy of our field of candidates?

hawkdriver on February 6, 2011 at 10:26 AM

There’s a bunch on there that I don’t think are going to even run.

AnninCA on February 6, 2011 at 1:23 PM

This is like looking at a menu and everything on it contains something guaranteed to make you throw up. Romney? Why? Why is he running? He sucked before Obamacare…now. Please Mitt, just go.
Huckabee? Again? This phony just loves putting his big stupid face out there over and over. Not gonna happen.

Mitch Daniels? Who? Are we just making up names and putting them on the ballot? I’ve got a great one! Bob Dickman! He’s the most conservative guy ever! Vote for Bob! Seriously, if Jetboy is supporting Daniels, you know he’s a giant f**king loser.

Speaking of also rans and losers, it’s Backdoor John McCain’s galpal, Sarah P. Yawn. Guess she’s not quite tired of seeing how far the media will go to insult her so we’ll get to see Chris Matthews physically removed from his set after he calls her something vile. Personally, I don’t trust her because of her refusal to denounce John McCain, and I won’t support her at all; but personal dislike aside, her negatives are too high. She won’t win.

So this is our field. Field is a good analogy. It’s a barren patch of land full of droppings. Still, I don’t see any McCain style spectacular losers. I mean, Huck is there, but everybody pretty much knows he’s a moron and he’s got personality. For the GOP to achieve epic McCainesque suckitude, we need even sh*ttier candidates. McCain was a lousy public speaker; boring, had no positions on anything. Best part, he hated his own constituency. Why lose with Huck or Mitch Buchanon when you could lose with Lindsey Graham or Lisa Moocowski? Not only are they horrible in person, lacking in charisma, and have no positions to stand on that appeal to their base, they pretty much hate their own party. In short, they’re perfect for that 2008 vibe.
GOP: No hope, no chance! Our candidates are pathetic losers but darn it, we care!

austinnelly on February 6, 2011 at 1:24 PM

Speaking of also rans and losers, it’s Backdoor John McCain’s galpal, Sarah P. Yawn. Guess she’s not quite tired of seeing how far the media will go to insult her

That’s an odd statement and implies that one should accept media insults, sit down and shut up.

darwin on February 6, 2011 at 1:36 PM

If Herman Cain transitions from the present status of forming an exploratory committee to formally announcing his candidacy, I gar-on-tee no one will be able to tag him with the description “relatively obscure.”

Mr. Cain is a TRULY gifted public speaker (sans teleprompter) who commands attention, knows how to run a business, knows how to rain fire down on the libs, and has an in-depth mastery of the substantive issues, particularly health care, unlike any other GOP person cited in that graph. Combining those traits with his being a black conservative, and a bona fide one at that, Mr. Cain is Obozo’s worst nightmare.

Run, Herman, run!!!

OneVision on February 6, 2011 at 1:42 PM

You want to save the Republic? Get behind Sarah, or well, get out of the way.

gary4205 on February 5, 2011 at 3:17 PM

Comments like this are why it’s really impossible to take you seriously.

Sarah isn’t Jesus, dude.

And this is coming from someone who supports her and wants her to win.

You have no credibility because you’re so biased and in the tank for her that you’ve lost any/all objectivity when it comes to her. As great as the woman is she’s not perfect. She’s not the only one who can save America. She’s not a messiah.

When you talk like this you sound exactly like the people who were worshiping Barack Obama and creating songs and poems in his honor during the 08 campaign. It’s really quite disturbing.

MikeknaJ on February 6, 2011 at 1:55 PM

I like Newt and Sarah, and I respect Haley. Of the three, probably Newt has the greatest chance of being elected.

Phil Byler on February 6, 2011 at 4:09 PM

I still like Mitt. But you’re right. Where was his or any other strong voice when it was needed over the last two years?

hawkdriver on February 6, 2011 at 8:56 AM

Mitt Romney has been extremely busy for the last two years donating and endorsing candidates during the 2012 election. In fact, his PAC doled out more money to federal, state and local republican candidates than anyone else.

Mitt would have boosted his chances enormously just by coming out and condemning the media and left after the Tucson shooting. Instead we heard nothing.

darwin on February 6, 2011 at 9:03 AM

That’s not true.

Conservative Samizdat on February 6, 2011 at 4:28 PM

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