PPP: Obama leads Palin by eight … in South Dakota?

posted at 10:00 pm on February 1, 2011 by Allahpundit

I’m highly skeptical — this is a state the GOP’s won in every election since 1964 — but their sample doesn’t seem obviously skewed to me. The partisan breakdown is 48R/38D/14I; the sample in the state’s 2008 exit poll on election day was 42R/36D/22I. If anything, PPP skewed too heavily towards Republicans. The ideological sample is similarly in line. For PPP, it’s 43 percent conservative, 44 percent moderate, and 13 percent liberal. In 2008 on election day, the exit poll had it 35 percent conservative, 50 percent moderate, and 15 percent liberal. Again, PPP’s numbers tilt against Obama. And their polling of hypothetical Romney/Obama and Huckabee/Obama races seems credible. Mitt leads 46/40 and Huck leads 47/41 in a state McCain won by eight points.

If the GOP went with Newt Gingrich or Sarah Palin as its nominee Obama’s prospects for picking up the state would improve dramatically. Against Gingrich he holds a slight lead at 44-42 and pitted against Palin that increases to a somewhat remarkable 48-40…

Obama’s slightly unpopular in the state with 42% of voters approving of him and 49% disapproving. He’s ahead of both Gingrich and Palin though because they’re more unpopular than that. Gingrich’s favorability is a 31/43 spread and Palin’s is even worse at 37/55. Voters there are positive toward Huckabee, with 40% rating him favorably to 30% with a negative opinion, and a small plurality like Romney as well- 35% favorable, 34% unfavorable.

In the last two weeks we’ve found Palin up 1 point in Texas, up 1 point in Nebraska, and down 8 points in South Dakota. What those numbers indicate is that she would only really be safe in states that Republicans won by at least 20 points in 2008. And there weren’t very many of those. It’s becoming clearer and clearer that a Palin nomination would be Goldwater redux for the GOP.

PPP is Kos’s pollster, but remember that the Kos crowd rightly or wrongly wants to face Palin in 2012. If PPP is cooking its data to do the left’s bidding (which I have no reason to believe), it would theoretically be showing strong numbers for her in order to convince Republicans that she can win and they should therefore nominate her, no?

Meanwhile, in South Carolina, assuming DeMint doesn’t run, Huckabee’s the leader by six points over Romney(!). I’m actually surprised to see both of them in those positions: Huck’s appeal to a southern Christian electorate is obvious, but my sense has always been that SC is ground zero for “true conservatism” and Huck’s credentials on that point are, er, suspect. (Then again, SC elected Lindsey Graham, didn’t it?) And how did Mitt pull off second place? Isn’t he allegedly thinking of skipping the state altogether because it seems like a lost cause with such a crowded social-con field? Maybe Ben Smith is right: By the time 2012 rolls around, the courts may have solved his RomneyCare problems for him.


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gryphon202 on February 2, 2011 at 12:52 AM

Interesting piece of Rock trivia. I would imagine she would have to do some recreational drug prep just to get into the proper Floyd zone. Maybe not.

I like the Animals Album and listening to it is like a voyage into the unreal without the hassle of artificial inducement.

Geochelone on February 2, 2011 at 12:57 AM

so squish is probably better than a blockedhead zealot as head of our national government.

audiculous on February 2, 2011 at 12:56 AM

And of course, we’ll follow the same advice we followed in 2008 to get trounced as badly as we did in 2008. No thank you. I’ve heard it all before.

gryphon202 on February 2, 2011 at 12:57 AM

gryphon202

there isn’t a Republican alive, or not, who could have won that election.

audiculous on February 2, 2011 at 12:57 AM

your vote, your choice. McCain was a hell of a more qualified candidate than most, but if you prefer seeing a candidate who will stand for ideological principles and that most people in the country finds distasteful, and is thus unelectable, I’m happy for you and also happy that most Americans disagree with you.

audiculous on February 2, 2011 at 12:52 AM

I question that such a candidate is unelectable, but I’m happy with it also. And I don’t think you’re right about most Americans disagreeing with me. But we will see in 2012.

predator on February 2, 2011 at 12:57 AM

there isn’t a Republican alive, or not, who could have won that election.

audiculous on February 2, 2011 at 12:57 AM

Yeah. Cause Obama was head-and-shoulders above Reagan, and Ike, and Silent Cal…you keep telling yourself that as you peddle your bullshit.

gryphon202 on February 2, 2011 at 12:59 AM

predator on February 2, 2011 at 12:54 AM

Hey I am talking about how she was in her Buckingham and Nicks days, before the hookup with Fleetwood. Dreamy.

Geochelone on February 2, 2011 at 12:59 AM

And of course, we’ll follow the same advice we followed in 2008 to get trounced as badly as we did in 2008. No thank you. I’ve heard it all before.

gryphon202

Well, you could pick Palin and get trounced worse than 2008.

That might not be too good for anyone.

audiculous on February 2, 2011 at 1:00 AM

Well, you could pick Palin and get trounced worse than 2008.

That might not be too good for anyone.

audiculous on February 2, 2011 at 1:00 AM

That is assuming you are even correct. I’m not ready to go out on that limb while only one presumptive nominee has an exploratory committee formed.

gryphon202 on February 2, 2011 at 1:01 AM

Yeah. Cause Obama was head-and-shoulders above Reagan, and Ike, and Silent Cal…you keep telling yourself that as you peddle your bullshit.

gryphon202 on February 2, 2011 at 12:59 AM

I don’t think he’s referring to the quality of the candidate per se, but rather the, uh, “historical nature” of his candidacy. If you know what I’m saying.

Go RBNY on February 2, 2011 at 1:01 AM

For those who might claim bias…

Polling Accuracy Analysis for Senate and Gubernatorial

Polls in Final 21 Days of 2010 Elections
1) Quinnipiac R +.7
2) Survey USA R+.8
3) YouGov R+1.1
4) PPP R+0.3
5) Mason Dixon D+0.4
6) Marist R+4.0
7) CNN R+2.1
8) Rasmussen R+3.9

http://bit.ly/9Wx9uz

I had to retype it because FiveThirtyEight blog wouldn’t let me copy-and-paste the chart.

Point is PPP was 4th most accurate, much more accurate than Rasmussen unfortunately (I’m a Ras subscriber and fan), and the direction of their bias favored the Republican candidate on average by 0.7%

Raisedbywolves on February 2, 2011 at 1:02 AM

alwaysfiredup on February 2, 2011 at 12:56 AM

She is battle tested and a lot of Tea Partiers are Indies who are diggin on her tenacity. With the right MoJo this could happen.

Geochelone on February 2, 2011 at 1:02 AM

You’d go for the coke nose, huh? And the professional-love-hate relationship with the ex in the same band? Man, you reek of desperation.

gryphon202 on February 2, 2011 at 12:55 AM

No desperation here. But when she was at her hottest, and I could do a fling? Yep. The coke I can do without. The body, I would have liked to explore. Judge me as you will.

predator on February 2, 2011 at 1:02 AM

I don’t think he’s referring to the quality of the candidate per se, but rather the, uh, “historical nature” of his candidacy. If you know what I’m saying.

Go RBNY on February 2, 2011 at 1:01 AM

Well you’re reading more into it than I did, but if you’re intimating that Obama won because he was black? I guess that along with the fact that Obama is as strident a socialist as we’ve ever had in the White House does make it a pretty historical candidacy.

gryphon202 on February 2, 2011 at 1:03 AM

Geochelone on February 2, 2011 at 12:59 AM

Exactly. That’s what I’m trying to relate to Gryphon.

predator on February 2, 2011 at 1:04 AM

No desperation here. But when she was at her hottest, and I could do a fling? Yep. The coke I can do without. The body, I would have liked to explore. Judge me as you will.

predator on February 2, 2011 at 1:02 AM

I’m guessing you’ve probably never stared straight up the nostrils of a coke nose. Man, it’s a pretty vicious turn-off for me. (I’ve taken nursing classes)

gryphon202 on February 2, 2011 at 1:05 AM

South Dakota just elected Kristi Noem, often compared to Sarah Palin, to its lone congressional seat so this poll is striking to say the least.

Raisedbywolves on February 2, 2011 at 1:05 AM

Hey I am talking about how she was in her Buckingham and Nicks days, before the hookup with Fleetwood. Dreamy.

Geochelone on February 2, 2011 at 12:59 AM

Sorry, man. I just can’t get past the coke nose thing. And during her Buckingham/Nicks days, she was DATING Lindsay Buckingham. That would be kind of problematic to get her to agree to a fling, don’t you think? Or am I being criminally pedantic here?

gryphon202 on February 2, 2011 at 1:06 AM

I question that such a candidate is unelectable, but I’m happy with it also. And I don’t think you’re right about most Americans disagreeing with me. But we will see in 2012.

predator

I can respect that. We need people who will stand for principle as well as people who can compromise.

audiculous on February 2, 2011 at 1:07 AM

South Dakota just elected Kristi Noem, often compared to Sarah Palin, to its lone congressional seat so this poll is striking to say the least complete and utter horseshit.

Raisedbywolves on February 2, 2011 at 1:05 AM

FIFY

gryphon202 on February 2, 2011 at 1:07 AM

I’m guessing you’ve probably never stared straight up the nostrils of a coke nose. Man, it’s a pretty vicious turn-off for me. (I’ve taken nursing classes)

gryphon202 on February 2, 2011 at 1:05 AM

Yeah, looking up her nostrils was not what I had in mind.
So ya got me there./

predator on February 2, 2011 at 1:08 AM

gryphon202 on February 2, 2011 at 1:06 AM

Dude this is all make believe anyway. Just try to imagine her before she ever snorted a single like of coke and had no STDs. LOL

Geochelone on February 2, 2011 at 1:09 AM

Yeah, looking up her nostrils was not what I had in mind.
So ya got me there./

predator on February 2, 2011 at 1:08 AM

Hardee har har. So you can get her while she’s dating Lindsay, or after her world falls apart, she achieves real fame and fortune, and starts snorting snow. What a choice!

Gimme some o’dat Toni Tennille any day. LOL

gryphon202 on February 2, 2011 at 1:10 AM

audiculous on February 2, 2011 at 1:07 AM

The true measure of that will come out in November, 2012. We will see.

predator on February 2, 2011 at 1:10 AM

Dude this is all make believe anyway. Just try to imagine her before she ever snorted a single like of coke and had no STDs. LOL

Geochelone on February 2, 2011 at 1:09 AM

That’s what I’m sayin, dude. Then, she was already spoken for by Lindsay Buckingham. They were high school sweethearts!

gryphon202 on February 2, 2011 at 1:11 AM

Geochelone on February 2, 2011 at 1:09 AM

I meant line of coke, not like of coke.

Geochelone on February 2, 2011 at 1:11 AM

zounds. innocently, he asked, what exactly, in a sexual liaison, do you need nice nasal linings to accomplish?

audiculous on February 2, 2011 at 1:12 AM

So does the fact that Reagan came back from down 25 in 1980 mean that we should completely ignore polling? Secondly, did Reagan’s favorability and support regress in the year or two before the 1980 election? Its not just that Palin is behind, its that as the public has been exposed to her more and more over the past two years her favorables and support have fallen.

Raisedbywolves on February 2, 2011 at 1:14 AM

zounds. innocently, he asked, what exactly, in a sexual liaison, do you need nice nasal linings to accomplish?

audiculous on February 2, 2011 at 1:12 AM

Coke nose does more than deteriorate your nasal linings and make them bleed. Cocaine actually deadens nerves and seals off blood vessels, to the point of literally making the cartilage of your nose crumble.

Stevie Nicks narrowly averted having to get a teflon nose replacement, and was only able to avoid it with an intense supervised withdrawal regimen that took months.

gryphon202 on February 2, 2011 at 1:15 AM

gryphon202 on February 2, 2011 at 1:10 AM

LOL! Yep, Tenille would be fine. But any port in a storm.

And when I have a storm brewing, I’m definitely looking for a port. Take that as you wish.

predator on February 2, 2011 at 1:15 AM

So does the fact that Reagan came back from down 25 in 1980 mean that we should completely ignore polling? Secondly, did Reagan’s favorability and support regress in the year or two before the 1980 election? Its not just that Palin is behind, its that as the public has been exposed to her more and more over the past two years her favorables and support have fallen.

Raisedbywolves on February 2, 2011 at 1:14 AM

I will sum it up by opining, so take this with large grain of salt:

I believe that if polling is how we pick our candidate, thus trading principle for “electability,” we deserve four more years of Obama.

gryphon202 on February 2, 2011 at 1:16 AM

So does the fact that Reagan came back from down 25 in 1980 mean that we should completely ignore polling? Secondly, did Reagan’s favorability and support regress in the year or two before the 1980 election? Its not just that Palin is behind, its that as the public has been exposed to her more and more over the past two years her favorables and support have fallen.

Raisedbywolves on February 2, 2011 at 1:14 AM

So let the primaries prove that “her supports from the republicans” have fallen.

As for many of us, WE ARE SARAH PALIN!!!!!!!!!!

TheAlamos on February 2, 2011 at 1:19 AM

I’m hitting the rack. We have a blizzard brewing here, and I’ve had some good food and drink. Time to pack it in. ‘Night all.

predator on February 2, 2011 at 1:20 AM

Cocaine actually deadens nerves and seals off blood vessels, to the point of literally making the cartilage of your nose crumble.

yes, cocaine will deaden nerve and constrict vessels,that’s why it used to be used for surgery.
and yes, long-term use will do erode cartilage.

that said,,,,,,

what exactly, in a sexual liaison, do you need nice nasal linings to accomplish?

audiculous on February 2, 2011 at 1:22 AM

I’m hitting the rack. We have a blizzard brewing here, and I’ve had some good food and drink. Time to pack it in. ‘Night all.

predator on February 2, 2011 at 1:20 AM

Me too. Our blizzard hit last night, but we’re in for record-breaking cold tomorrow. It’s gotta be bad before I’ll sit at my computer wrapped in an electric blanket.

Peace-out, all.

gryphon202 on February 2, 2011 at 1:22 AM

what exactly, in a sexual liaison, do you need nice nasal linings to accomplish?
audiculous on February 2, 2011 at 1:22 AM

You really have no imagination, do you? LOL

Incidentally, I said that coke nose is simply a turn-off for me. We had to study too much of that crap in the chapter on drug side effects for my second-year pathology class.

Good night, Audi.

gryphon202 on February 2, 2011 at 1:23 AM

g’night.

and now I’m gonna have to wonder if you know all sorts of other types of nose jobs.

audiculous on February 2, 2011 at 1:27 AM

I don’t follow polls, I follow leaders.

Bishop on February 2, 2011 at 12:09 AM

QFT.

powerpro on February 2, 2011 at 1:50 AM

Anyone who thinks “Sister Sarah” has a shot is effing delusional. She doesn’t. She is a joke. People can’t even stand the sound of her voice and the fact that obnoxious accent. It’s not happening.

Go RBNY on February 2, 2011 at 12:15 AM

You sound like the clowns at HuffNutPost and Pink pigs are something like that. You have been saying that for 2 year. Please come up with something new.

oldyeller on February 2, 2011 at 2:28 AM

I don’t follow polls, I follow leaders.

Bishop on February 2, 2011 at 12:09 AM

QFT.

powerpro on February 2, 2011 at 1:50 AM

Quotable enough to go in the history books. Seriously.

Dark-Star on February 2, 2011 at 2:58 AM

Hey Allah. I noticed that when Erickson ran his bogus “straw poll” you couldn’t WAIT to post that, but I notice today that there is one poll that is strangely absent from Hot Air.

You know the one, the TOWNHALL/HOT AIR Straw Poll that your parent company put a ton of advertising and promotional effort into.

The one that Sarah Palin wiped the floor with the competition?

Why is this Allah?

Why WOULDN’T Hot Air want to publish the results of THEIR OWN STRAW POLL?

I find it funny, BTW, now that Sarah blew everyone away, good old Townhall is adding MORE names to the list, including those who have said they are absolutely not going to run.

Why is THAT, huh?

When are you candy ass RINOs going to accept that Palin is going to be our next President?

You can hide the decline, and you can stack the odds, but on January 20, 2013 at or about 12:01 pm, Sarah Palin will be taking the Oath of Office, as President of these United States, and there is nothing you can do about it.

gary4205 on February 1, 2011 at 10:46 PM

This.

long_cat on February 2, 2011 at 6:17 AM

Well, Sarah has about a year to repair her image with indies. Without them, she will not win a general election. NO ONE wins without the indies.

This world we live in on HA, is NOT a place to find the indie perspective, and without it, we live in an echo chamber.

Sarah’s challenges are first, the media. They will not stop crucifying her until just before primary season. Their hope is that she will win the nomination and then they will go back to the attacks. Unless OIbama is eating babies on live TV, he will beat her.

Number two is her resignation from the governorship. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know! She had a good reason. But indies wont see it that way.

3rd, women hate her. In this day and age, I don’t get it. But then again women have always been and always will be catty.

Minorities, and the youth hate her. Not so much because of the aforementioned causes, but because they want free handouts and Sarah isn’t going to do that.

Last, her speaking style is unorthodox. She uses the wrong inflections many times. I don’t see it as a problem (heck, Moses had to have a mouthpiece..his brother Aaron) but many are put off by it.

Her positives include that she speaks her heart. She is honest and most people value that.

She is down to earth. She is not a pretentious elitist snob.

She is a Washington outsider.

She does not flip-flop. (Which is partially why some hate her. She is secure and confident in what she stands for).

So as you can see, her job is pretty clear cut. All the media can do is lie, obfuscate, and keep up with the Alinski tactics. Sarah needs to stay on message and let the media hoist themselves on their own petards. I liked her response to the media’s attacks on her in relationship to the Tucson shooting. It was the right message at the right time. But as we saw, the media excoriated her for it. THAT is her biggest hurdle to overcome. And I don’t mean by getting them to treat her fairly, because they NEVER will. I mean by going around them. Using their ineptitude to her advantage. Ala the Tucson shooting. Sarah looked good coming out of that. The media went out on a limb and Sarah cut it off behind them. The media will always air what Sarah says because they think she will say something they can attack her for. She needs to be one step ahead so that when the media attacks, it’s clear to people they are being biased. (just like Beck did with the rubber frog. That was a brilliant piece of manipulation of the medias dishonesty to his own advantage! LEARN IT SARAH!)

csdeven on February 2, 2011 at 6:38 AM

Poor Gary — I think that he may need an intervention if Palin doesn’t win the nomination….

Truly in trouble when Obama out polls you in SD.

But but but she has 2 Million facebook friends…

Bradky on February 2, 2011 at 6:41 AM

Wasn’t Tom Daschle from SD?

stenwin77 on February 2, 2011 at 6:42 AM

DRILL, BABY, DRILL !

Watch oil. Americans will be begging Sarah to run and implement an oil drilling policy.

stenwin77 on February 2, 2011 at 6:43 AM

Bradky on February 2, 2011 at 6:41 AM

I didn’t know trolling hour came so early

cableguy615 on February 2, 2011 at 6:51 AM

Comparing Palin to Ronald Reagan? Yeah that’s not completely insane.

Man the kool-aid is extra strong tonight.

Go RBNY on February 2, 2011 at 12:45 AM

How does it taste?
You didn’t read the post, and you make that comment…the reference was to the race and the how inaccurate the polls were, as well as the left leaning reporting…sheesh, hard to post when the people reading can’t understand the simplest of analogies.
You must sit at the childrens table, and let the adults discuss these matter until you grow up.

right2bright on February 2, 2011 at 7:02 AM

But but but she has 2 Million facebook friends…

Bradky on February 2, 2011 at 6:41 AM

As well as you…you are one of the obsessed ones.
You and others of your ilk, remind me of Loughner. You are way to enamored of someone who isn’t running for office, in office, and basically writes or speaks very little unless called upon by the press to do so.
Very uneasy, and strange are you Palin-haters, I can see why her security is at a high alert.

right2bright on February 2, 2011 at 7:07 AM

a true indication of how lost the Republicans are. They have zero bond with Middle America, disconnected, off target. Its really sad to watch clueless Republican strategists flopping around like fish out of water. DD

Darvin Dowdy on February 2, 2011 at 7:28 AM

The GOP could run a virtual unknown in 2012 and win the White House after 4-years of the Manchurian President. This link is an example of what we will see over the next 18 months here stateside. What we will see worldwide is human freedom getting sucked into the devils vacuum and Obama will have been the man holding the vacuums plug in the electrical outlet. Americans got sold/tricked in 2008. That will not happen again for several cycles; Americans are not that brain dead.

http://dailycaller.com/2011/02/01/president-obama-snubs-issa-on-first-major-document-deadline/

Keemo on February 2, 2011 at 7:30 AM

Today, the wind chill factor in South Dakota is about -40F.

Groundhog day!

percysunshine on February 2, 2011 at 7:36 AM

Wind chill factor here in western Montana is -19…
Al Gore says it’s due to global warming. :-)

Keemo on February 2, 2011 at 7:55 AM

Gird your loins, guys, this is just beginning. The media will be pulling every dirty trick to get Obama re-elected. He’s their cash cow after all since all he brings is bad news and they want to sell papers. Bogus polls, pushing through the requisite lousy and weak candidates like Romney so we end up with another McCain makes it obvious what they’re up to. And all the mud slinging and slander against any conservative – the screaming, horrible accusations no matter how false, anything to fatigue the general public as they did with President Bush, so we’ll cave just to get the democrats to SHUT UP!

mozalf on February 2, 2011 at 8:02 AM

Kos likes the polls to be cooked…cooked a lot! When those polls prove to be wrong, he cries a lot and screams for his attorney. He had Obama’s favorability’s kept high for over two years, and when he couldn’t keep them inflated any longer he blamed the pollster.

Karmi on February 2, 2011 at 8:03 AM

Bradley effect.Hmmm I see how that could play some factor in the poll. Still, 8 points’ a bit much. People in that state (I hope) have better balls than that and call it as they see it.

IA caucus is scary? When Palin went to IA to give a speech, the IA caucus top person had a grin so wide, it compared to Jack Nicholson’s “The Joker” in the original Batman movie. I have to fetch that video clip, because when I watched it, I laughed and thought, “she’s got him in the bag!”

ProudPalinFan on February 2, 2011 at 8:05 AM

The media will be pulling every dirty trick to get Obama re-elected.
mozalf on February 2, 2011 at 8:02 AM

they never stopped…it’s just going to get worse

cmsinaz on February 2, 2011 at 8:05 AM

South Dakota is going communist?

tarpon on February 2, 2011 at 8:12 AM

(and yes, I know what I just did there)

gryphon202 on February 1, 2011 at 11:03 PM

Hey we only have Conrad to go. He’s trying to whistle a different tune now. But I am sure he is on the outs.
The ND legislature is big majority GOP now.
In my district, we voted out the Dem Cathlic that’s been in there for years for a local guy.
This Dem is our ‘neighbor’ & he’s a nice enough fellow.
But weak.
This other guy I hope will be better.
He’s strong on issues.
I am not terribly find of Rick Berg or John Hoeven, but we’ll see what happens.

Badger40 on February 2, 2011 at 8:12 AM

South Dakota is going communist?

tarpon on February 2, 2011 at 8:12 AM

Lotta big ag subsidized farmers there.
They like their ag subsidies.

Badger40 on February 2, 2011 at 8:12 AM

Huck’s appeal to a southern Christian electorate is obvious, but my sense has always been that SC is ground zero for “true conservatism” and Huck’s credentials on that point are, er, suspect.

What’s apparent to readers of conservative blogs like Hot Air is not apparent to those who don’t. Particularly at this point early in the game, I doubt S.C. voters are all that informed about, say, his anti-business tendencies such as Club for Growth = “Club for Greed”. And at the same time his populist class envy shtick may very well appeal to S.C. voters.

Buy Danish on February 2, 2011 at 8:14 AM

Obama leads Palin in SD? Well it must be over then, so there’s really not much sense in fighting this socialist monster just for freedom, since they obviously won. I’m certain that cxonservatives for Obama will morph into even a larger group that liberals for Obama before its over with the way their side is behaving. Maybe if enough corporations like GE can cut deals with the coming red cloud, and the anti-life fiscals go with some pro-death guy we can really do the job?

These aren’t polls -they are obituaries.

Don L on February 2, 2011 at 8:15 AM

Over here in Erie is 30 degrees, so it’s warm. Yes, warm. Last night temperature was basically in the single digits. We had a frozen pop for a car and on the ground the top layer of what looks like snow is actually a layer of ice.

While Mr. PPF’s car was warming up, he got the car door windows down, and it looked like they were still up! We had fun pushing out those sheets of ice.

My dog, a Pyr, was uncomfortable outside because she couldn’t walk nor run. And she’s a snow dog.

ProudPalinFan on February 2, 2011 at 8:20 AM

Let’s see what these polls look like after Sarah starts running an actual campaign.

Sarah is eight points behind Soetoro in South Dakota? Come on. You might as well tell me that she’s eight points behind him in Utah, or Oklahoma, or Texas.

Aitch748 on February 2, 2011 at 8:31 AM

Reid was behind Angle on election day and won big, confounding everyone who thought he was done. Winds shift all the time, just ask those who live by the lake in Chicago.

Kissmygrits on February 2, 2011 at 8:43 AM

Well, if these people truly are Republican, there is no way you would vote for Obama over ANYBODY.. period… not even the elephant itself. If the polls are correct then, just give up and shut up, because the entire country apparently wants big government,socialism, and one stupid arse in the white house.

shar61 on February 2, 2011 at 8:46 AM

Wow who knew that SD was made up of 50% moderates. It must be the only state in the Union that has 50% moderates.

unseen on February 2, 2011 at 8:48 AM

In 2008 on election day, the exit poll had it 35 percent conservative, 50 percent moderate, and 15 percent liberal

So PPP uses the numbers from 2008 and not 2010. I wonder way.

unseen on February 2, 2011 at 8:50 AM

Comparing Palin to Ronald Reagan? Yeah that’s not completely insane.

Man the kool-aid is extra strong tonight.

Go RBNY on February 2, 2011 at 12:45 AM

Reagan wasn’t Reagan until after he was done being Reagan. Really, really dumb post.

fossten on February 2, 2011 at 9:05 AM

Obama leads Palin in SD? Well it must be over then, so there’s really not much sense in fighting this socialist monster just for freedom, since they obviously won. I’m certain that cxonservatives for Obama will morph into even a larger group that liberals for Obama before its over with the way their side is behaving. Maybe if enough corporations like GE can cut deals with the coming red cloud, and the anti-life fiscals go with some pro-death guy we can really do the job?

These aren’t polls -they are obituaries.

Don L on February 2, 2011 at 8:15 AM

Exactly what they want us to think. Message delivered – ‘just quit’.

fossten on February 2, 2011 at 9:07 AM

Sarah’s not going to run for president; she wants to stay relevant past 2012 and being a loser in the 12 primaries will lower her stock, especially if she does very badly. She’ll play kingmaker instead and sign a major tv contract. I can see her supporting Thune who did very well in this poll, winning at around Bush 04 levels.

IR-MN on February 2, 2011 at 9:14 AM

I can see her supporting Thune who did very well in this poll, winning at around Bush 04 levels.

IR-MN on February 2, 2011 at 9:14 AM

Palin does not follow polls, and it matters not at all how Thune did in this one. These polls have no predictive value.

alwaysfiredup on February 2, 2011 at 9:42 AM

Reagan wasn’t Reagan until after he was done being Reagan.

Was there supposed to be, I don’t know, some logic behind that sentence?

Comparing Palin to Reagan is like comparing a .22 bullet to a howitzer shell; dress up the .22 all you like, but the potential is nowhere near the same.

It makes me sick and sad that the right is reduced to frantically cheering for someone who wouldn’t be fit to be Reagan’s secretary.

Dark-Star on February 2, 2011 at 9:47 AM

The last thing the GOP candidate wants to be is way ahead of Barry too soon — the leftist/media smear machine will be cranked even more than it already is. Better to be behind, a la Reagan, and “surprise” everyone on Election Day.

Everyone here has to remember that the media and the deranged left are terrified — full on terrified — about the 2012 election. If Barry loses, which is still in the quite likely column, it will mean a total rejection of the leftist agenda. Take a few deep breaths, relax, and remember which team Kos is on. They lie. They cheat. And the do not bow out gracefully.

Rational Thought on February 2, 2011 at 9:49 AM

be accurate, dude. Obama did not quit to run for president.

audiculous on February 1, 2011 at 11:36 PM

Ah, now I get it, we are graced with the presence of Chris Matthews, I have long wondered why these posts from audisanitorium made no sense!

dhunter on February 2, 2011 at 9:57 AM

I doubt anything about this poll until I see the actual questions that were asked. It’s so easy to skew results just on wording of the questions…

dominigan on February 2, 2011 at 9:57 AM

You know, Toni Tennille did backup vocals on Pink Floyd: The Wall. gryphon202 on February 2, 2011 at 12:46 AM

She was Mrs. Floyd. “He hung up…”

Akzed on February 2, 2011 at 9:58 AM

Reagan wasn’t Reagan until after he was done being Reagan.

?

So who was he when he was being Reagan?

Good Lt on February 2, 2011 at 9:59 AM

fossten on February 2, 2011 at 9:05 AM

Comparing Palin to Reagan is like comparing a .22 bullet to a howitzer shell; dress up the .22 all you like, but the potential is nowhere near the same.

Dark-Star on February 2, 2011 at 9:47 AM

I believe the point he was trying to make is that Palin supporters are comparing her with Reagan, prior to entering office. You are comparing her now, against Reagan and his legacy (which has grown).

I believe she compares strongly to Reagan based on the contents of her writings, and what she has stated publicly in her speeches. She believes and states the love of country that Reagan believed. And because of this and her policy writings, it makes sense to see her potential to be a President in the mold of Reagan.

dominigan on February 2, 2011 at 10:05 AM

Whatever.

Get back to us in 2012.

rrpjr on February 2, 2011 at 10:08 AM

Well … I’m not a Republican … I’m a Conservative – and I really don’t care what the polls say or who my neighbor wants me to vote for. My vote is MINE – and MINE ALONE. I’ll vote for Palin if she’s the GOP nominee. I’ll vote for Palin if she runs third party. If she doesn’t run at all and the GOP nominates Mittens – I’ll write a name in or something. Give me a choice between a guy that will break the nation quickly and one that does it slowly – and I’ll go with the quick one every time.

But I’d rather go with a gal who FIGHTS and can FIX.

HondaV65 on February 2, 2011 at 10:08 AM

dominigan on February 2, 2011 at 10:05 AM

Fair points.

Dark-Star on February 2, 2011 at 10:09 AM

It makes me sick and sad that the right is reduced to frantically cheering for someone who wouldn’t be fit to be Reagan’s secretary.

Dark-Star on February 2, 2011 at 9:47 AM

I LOVE SEEING YOU SAD.

Here’s a kleenex for you – John Boehner’s just around the corner – you can “bond”.

HondaV65 on February 2, 2011 at 10:11 AM

I LOVE SEEING YOU SAD.

I love seeing you act like an idiot.

Here’s a kleenex for you – John Boehner’s just around the corner – you can “bond”.

HondaV65 on February 2, 2011 at 10:11 AM

Here’s a double bird-flip for you – go find some duct tape in the closet and ‘bond’ your hands together.

Dark-Star on February 2, 2011 at 10:14 AM

Mitt leads 46/40 and Huck leads 47/41 in a state McCain won by eight points.

So Obama gains votes in 2012 vs 2008 in a heavily Republican state? Yeah that makes sense.

angryed on February 2, 2011 at 10:19 AM

Dark-Star on February 2, 2011 at 10:14 AM

Hit a nerve? ;)

Frankly – you’re wrong about Palin not being fit for Reagan’s secretary. And you’re wrong about us “frantically” cheering for her. Such hyperbolic statements really make you the idiot.

Fact is – Reagan wasn’t that great. He did restore America’s image overseas – and he did win the Cold War – but he didn’t need to be Conservative to do those things.

His real legacy domestically … is one of expanding government and increasing debt.

Quite ironic – for a guy who saw “government” as the “problem”. He talked a mean deal – but in reality he did his part in contributing to our current economic woes. The fact is … Ronald Reagan made government BIGGER.

I won’t even get into “amnesty”.

So here’s to hoping that President Palin is no “Reagan”.

HondaV65 on February 2, 2011 at 10:24 AM

Polls in Final 21 Days of 2010 Elections
1) Quinnipiac R +.7
2) Survey USA R+.8
3) YouGov R+1.1
4) PPP R+0.3
5) Mason Dixon D+0.4
6) Marist R+4.0
7) CNN R+2.1
8) Rasmussen R+3.9
http://bit.ly/9Wx9uz

Raisedbywolves on February 2, 2011 at 1:02 AM

Your own table says that PPP is the most accurate in the final 21 days before elections. Not 18 months before the first vote is cast. No polling outfit would stake a reputation on a poll this far out. Why? Because they have no predictive value.

alwaysfiredup on February 2, 2011 at 10:28 AM

Polls at this point are worthless.

The GOP nominee will be selected based upon their ability to debate and spar with the other Republican hopefuls in the primaries. If Palin wins the nomination – then she will have run that gauntlet successfully and inspired enough people to be convinced that’s she the best nominee. If the others in the field can’t take her down during the primaries with their plans for the economy and their communication abilities – then they are not worthy to be the GOP nominee.

If Palin is “not good enough to be Reagan’s secretary” … then she won’t be the nominee – plain and simple.

Anyone who is distressed about the base voting for her like “zombies” … has a poor attitude toward the GOP nomination process, as well a very condescending attitude toward GOP voters.

Let the primaries roll – then take a poll.

HondaV65 on February 2, 2011 at 10:35 AM

Sorry but I can’t buy all these polling conspiracy theories. Wasn’t Sharon Angle ahead in the polls and yet she lost? I love Sarah, but I think many Palin fans are in denial about her prospects for running and winning the Presidency. The fact is that she has become radioactive to a large segment of the population. Part of that can be blamed on some of her own missteps, but most of it can be pinned on a biased media that was out to destroy her. To some degree they have succeeded in that effort. She is NOT winning over independents. I’m afraid that once a certain image of a person has been cemented into the cultural mindset, it’s very hard to undo it. Conservatives need to start thinking strategically about 2012. We need to throw our support behind someone who can win or else Obama will get re-elected and the odds of repealing this Health Care debacle (absent help from the Supreme Court) will be dim. 2012 is the last chance to repeal Obamacare. Once the benefits kick in, politicians will be loathe to take the goodies away from their constituents. Entitlement programs NEVER go away once the kick in. We need to take these polls seriously and pick the candidate that has the best chance of beating Obama.

frank63 on February 2, 2011 at 10:40 AM

Your own table says that PPP is the most accurate in the final 21 days before elections. Not 18 months before the first vote is cast. No polling outfit would stake a reputation on a poll this far out. Why? Because they have no predictive value.

alwaysfiredup on February 2, 2011 at 10:28 AM

I beleive the point was, PPP is actually a good pollster regardless of who subscribes to their service (KOS), Actually more accurate than Rass..

To argue that a poll this far out does not say much is a fair argument, to argue PPP isn’t a solid pollster isn’t.

NextGen on February 2, 2011 at 10:42 AM

She is NOT winning over independents.

frank63 on February 2, 2011 at 10:40 AM

That could be because she’s not trying to win over anyone at this point. She hasn’t announced, isn’t campaigning and if and when she does, then and only then will we get a clearer picture of support for her.

darwin on February 2, 2011 at 10:51 AM

@frank63… My brother in law is an Independent. He has no clue what the difference is between the two parties. He does not follow politics. He voted for Obama because “he liked what he had to say”.. Based on that level of participation in the process, he probably would like “what Sarah had to say”. God love the independents, I have no idea how people can be an independent though. It seems like indecision to me.

shar61 on February 2, 2011 at 10:55 AM

POLLS?………Always ALWAYS reliable!!

ask Former Presidents Mondale, Dukakis, Gore and Kerry.

and ask President Guiliani (he was the poll leader about this time 4 years ago for the GOP and he won in a landslide in 2008).

PappyD61 on February 2, 2011 at 11:09 AM

We need to take these polls seriously and pick the candidate that has the best chance of beating Obama.

frank63 on February 2, 2011 at 10:40 AM

I agree we need to be serious about beating Obama, but’s it’s just too early to get mired down in polls. There are many competing forces trying to cast a bad light on various candidates and most of the electorate is totally unengaged at this point. Let’s not write anyone off until the picture sharpens a bit.

Missy on February 2, 2011 at 11:12 AM

That could be because she’s not trying to win over anyone at this point.

Darwin,
It doesn’t matter what she is trying to do. She is already in the limelight so the public is already forming opinions about her. She has been the constant focus of media attention for 2 1/2 years now. Perceptions are not going to suddenly change once she enters the campaign (assuming she does). People try to compare her situation to Reagan who was not very popular prior to the 1980 campaign but who then eventually won over the nation to capture the Presidency. But most people knew little to nothing about Reagan prior to his campaign. That is not the situation with Palin. She has been in the public eye for a long time now. Perhaps she can win over a few more fence sitters if she runs in 2012, but I don’t see how she can win the Presidency if we are sitting here talking about her being behind by almost double digits in one of the reddest states in the nation! If she had any chance, she would be double digits ahead of Obama in a state like South Dakota!

frank63 on February 2, 2011 at 11:14 AM

frank63 on February 2, 2011 at 10:40 AM

Your CONCERN is noted.

fossten on February 2, 2011 at 11:18 AM

Good Lt on February 2, 2011 at 9:59 AM

Nothing gets past you except subtlety.

fossten on February 2, 2011 at 11:20 AM

We need to take these polls seriously and pick the candidate that has the best chance of beating Obama.

frank63 on February 2, 2011 at 10:40 AM

Disagree. If the polls say the “best” candidate is Mitt Romney – I won’t vote for him. Because Mitt just kills the Republic a bit slower than Obama would. Given a choice strictly between fast death and slow – I’ll take the fast death thank you – because you see, I believe that OUR GENERATION should pay the penalty of our shortcomings and greed – not our grandchildren.

Also – wasn’t “Slick Willie” oft criticized for taking polls too seriously and having his finger in the wind too much? If guys like you live and die by polls in making your candidate decisions – you certainly have no ground to criticize a politician for doing the same with public policy. Sounds like you may be a Mitt man because – well, that’s what he’s famous for doing.

As far as “indies” – they’re led – you don’t follow them. There were plenty of people who said Reagan had no chance with indies in 1979. I know – I was quite alive then. Independents are LED – not followed.

Why – in fact – we attempted to “follow independent” leanings in 2008 when we nominated McCain. It was said he was the most “electable” of the entire GOP crowd.

My – how that idea crashed hard!

And now – we’re ressurecting it for 2112?

Don’t bet on it.

HondaV65 on February 2, 2011 at 11:20 AM

I agree we need to be serious about beating Obama, but’s it’s just too early to get mired down in polls.

Missy,
I’m not saying Sarah shouldn’t run. Anything can happen. My concern is that some Palin fans are so dedicated to her that they are ready to crash and burn with her before they would think of supporting another candidate. The polls may change, and they are not perfect. But we can’t dismiss every poll that shows Palin doing badly as some type of liberal conspiracy. Why would liberals want Sarah to poll poorly among Republicans? They would LOVE for her to run in 2012. It would provide all kinds of fodder for them to mock her even more ruthlessly, since she would be put up to the test in interviews and debates and they are convinced she would make a fool of herself in them.

frank63 on February 2, 2011 at 11:24 AM

I’m not saying Sarah shouldn’t run. Anything can happen. My concern is that some Palin fans are so dedicated to her that they are ready to crash and burn with her before they would think of supporting another candidate.

frank63 on February 2, 2011 at 11:24 AM

Question … are YOU a conservative?

I ask this question because you seem more concerned that the independent voters get who THEY WANT as a GOP nominee but you’re not too concerned that the conservatives who actually vote in the GOP primaries get theirs.

Why are Palin supporters – who are overwhelmingly conservative – not worthy of supporting the candidate of their choice but you’re willing to give indies their choice of candidate even if means giving them a more liberal one?

I don’t understand this thinking. I think poltics is pretty clear right now. We have a Socialist Party which offers more socialism – and a Republican party which could potentially (given the right nominee) save our capitalist democracy and expand liberty for it’s citizens. If there are any “indies” out there – they are pretty stupid and haven’t been paying attention to the events of the last two years. Palin supporters are MUCH MORE engaged in the political process.

If you’re going to defer to anyone – at least defer to the Palinistas who have a CLUE about conservative principles. Why defer to indies who can’t distinguish between socialism and capitalism?

HondaV65 on February 2, 2011 at 11:31 AM

I might add – I’m a Palin supporter … and an “independent”. ;)

HondaV65 on February 2, 2011 at 11:33 AM

But most people knew little to nothing about Reagan prior to his campaign.

frank63 on February 2, 2011 at 11:14 AM

I’m pretty sure the average American remembered the movie he made with a chimp as co-star.

littleguy on February 2, 2011 at 11:37 AM

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