PPP: Obama leads Palin by eight … in South Dakota?

posted at 10:00 pm on February 1, 2011 by Allahpundit

I’m highly skeptical — this is a state the GOP’s won in every election since 1964 — but their sample doesn’t seem obviously skewed to me. The partisan breakdown is 48R/38D/14I; the sample in the state’s 2008 exit poll on election day was 42R/36D/22I. If anything, PPP skewed too heavily towards Republicans. The ideological sample is similarly in line. For PPP, it’s 43 percent conservative, 44 percent moderate, and 13 percent liberal. In 2008 on election day, the exit poll had it 35 percent conservative, 50 percent moderate, and 15 percent liberal. Again, PPP’s numbers tilt against Obama. And their polling of hypothetical Romney/Obama and Huckabee/Obama races seems credible. Mitt leads 46/40 and Huck leads 47/41 in a state McCain won by eight points.

If the GOP went with Newt Gingrich or Sarah Palin as its nominee Obama’s prospects for picking up the state would improve dramatically. Against Gingrich he holds a slight lead at 44-42 and pitted against Palin that increases to a somewhat remarkable 48-40…

Obama’s slightly unpopular in the state with 42% of voters approving of him and 49% disapproving. He’s ahead of both Gingrich and Palin though because they’re more unpopular than that. Gingrich’s favorability is a 31/43 spread and Palin’s is even worse at 37/55. Voters there are positive toward Huckabee, with 40% rating him favorably to 30% with a negative opinion, and a small plurality like Romney as well- 35% favorable, 34% unfavorable.

In the last two weeks we’ve found Palin up 1 point in Texas, up 1 point in Nebraska, and down 8 points in South Dakota. What those numbers indicate is that she would only really be safe in states that Republicans won by at least 20 points in 2008. And there weren’t very many of those. It’s becoming clearer and clearer that a Palin nomination would be Goldwater redux for the GOP.

PPP is Kos’s pollster, but remember that the Kos crowd rightly or wrongly wants to face Palin in 2012. If PPP is cooking its data to do the left’s bidding (which I have no reason to believe), it would theoretically be showing strong numbers for her in order to convince Republicans that she can win and they should therefore nominate her, no?

Meanwhile, in South Carolina, assuming DeMint doesn’t run, Huckabee’s the leader by six points over Romney(!). I’m actually surprised to see both of them in those positions: Huck’s appeal to a southern Christian electorate is obvious, but my sense has always been that SC is ground zero for “true conservatism” and Huck’s credentials on that point are, er, suspect. (Then again, SC elected Lindsey Graham, didn’t it?) And how did Mitt pull off second place? Isn’t he allegedly thinking of skipping the state altogether because it seems like a lost cause with such a crowded social-con field? Maybe Ben Smith is right: By the time 2012 rolls around, the courts may have solved his RomneyCare problems for him.


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Here it comes….

Bishop on February 1, 2011 at 10:03 PM

I’m highly skeptical — this is a state the GOP’s won in every election since 1964 — but their sample doesn’t seem obviously skewed to me.

Skepticism is good.

Have you noticed how many of these “Gosh-this-poll-is-just-so-awful-for-Sarah-Palin” polls seem to come from PPP?

Not saying they’re dishonest, per se. Just that it might not be too good an idea to take the word of a known Democratic pollster as gospel when it looks bad for a popular potential GOP candidate.

tom on February 1, 2011 at 10:06 PM

Yesyesyes. We get it. We’ve heard this a gazillion times. Give it up, she’s not electable. Stick a fork in ‘er, she’s done. Toast. Yesterday’s news.

Whatever.

theotherone on February 1, 2011 at 10:06 PM

Give it up, Sarah. The most accurate and unbiased poll in America says you can’t even win in South Dakota. There is no hope./s

predator on February 1, 2011 at 10:06 PM

Don’t be surprised by typically right-leaning states going to Obama if the GOP candidate is weak.

Remember: Virginia, Indiana, and North Carolina all went to Obama in 2008. As did Florida.

amerpundit on February 1, 2011 at 10:07 PM

They’re trying to convince her (and us) that she can’t win. That poor, poor chicken.

Bawk, bawk…bbbbbbawwwwwk!

SouthernGent on February 1, 2011 at 10:07 PM

If you think it’s bad now for Palin, wait until she’s the nominee. They did the same thing against McCain and against Hillary during the primaries. When it came to the actual election, neither McCain nor Hillary were as bad as the pollsters claimed. In fact, I remember Hillary winning many states that she was 20 points behind.

This is really old news. The liberals do this every damn election. Polls don’t mean anything this far out.

MrX on February 1, 2011 at 10:08 PM

Loose the hounds.

SlaveDog on February 1, 2011 at 10:08 PM

The Palinistas must denounce this as a fraud. Immediately. Sarah, remember, we love you!

/

This just shows that even with a weakened and vulnerable Obama, Palin is just too much of a dimwit even for those big city, liberal, multicultural urbanites in – South Dakota.

keep the change on February 1, 2011 at 10:08 PM

SHE CAN”T WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11!!!!!Eleventy-Eleven!!!

thebrokenrattle on February 1, 2011 at 10:09 PM

PPP poll:

67% of Americans believe the blizzard in the Midwest is a continuation of the Bush conspiracy that brought down the twin towers. Rosie O’donnell and Joy Behag agree.

predator on February 1, 2011 at 10:10 PM

Yawn… even as a Palinista I’ll concede not good numbers for her however until she (or anyone else) declares and runs a campaign these polls are pretty meaningless..

As for Huck, how were those PAC numbers again last reporting cycle? His numbers are a mirage and strictly due to his good ol boy bass playin weekly on FOX. A campaign and some debates to shine some light on his dismal record will fix that.

davek70 on February 1, 2011 at 10:10 PM

Allahpundit is being a bad boy tonight..:)

Dire Straits on February 1, 2011 at 10:10 PM

Sooner or later Rasmussen will come out with a poll showing similar results.

And then he’ll be labeled a shill for Romney/RINOs/Whoever. And obviously can’t be trusted because he’s anti-Palin.

amerpundit on February 1, 2011 at 10:10 PM

Any advantage is coming from East River. More population..more leaning twards the libspaz mentality.

BigWyo on February 1, 2011 at 10:11 PM

*Official SarahCudian Mama Grizzly
Armor Division Troopers Reponse*
======================================
(snark)

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!* NUTS *!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

canopfor on February 1, 2011 at 10:11 PM

8 points. IS that all. Shouldn’t it be wider? I mean to me 8 points seems like not an unbeatable gap to overtake should one put some effort into doing even were I to take these things very serious. Which I don’t as this constant harping on it betrays a fear on the part of those who feel the need to keep doing it at any chance they get.

I have an idea. Lets let the primaries decide who runs against Obama. You know who agrees with me? Sarah Palin.

Sharr on February 1, 2011 at 10:11 PM

*shrug*

If this poll is accurate, don’t just stick a fork in Palin; stick it in America.

Any state that favors Obama over Palin by 8 apparently wants socialism, and that would be the end of this country.

Scott H on February 1, 2011 at 10:12 PM

What is this fascination with Huck? I wish I understood it. Somebody better announce quickly or we may end up stuck with this guy.

jeanie on February 1, 2011 at 10:12 PM

Here it comes….

Bishop on February 1, 2011 at 10:03 PM

And so it begins..:)

Dire Straits on February 1, 2011 at 10:12 PM

If this poll is accurate, don’t just stick a fork in Palin; stick it in America.

Any state that favors Obama over Palin by 8 apparently wants socialism, and that would be the end of this country.

Scott H on February 1, 2011 at 10:12 PM

Exactly.

KickandSwimMom on February 1, 2011 at 10:13 PM

With all due respect, Himmler would beat Obama in South Dakota.

This polling organization is bullsh*t.

Every poll they put out has Obama clobbering her. It’s a Democratic polling organization that works for Kos. Their results in Alaska were way off, and their polling deviates markedly from everyone else in the business.

They’re in the business of trying to run Palin out of the race. Ignore what Democrats say. Watch what they actually do to Palin or about her.

victor82 on February 1, 2011 at 10:13 PM

Allahpundit is being a bad boy tonight..:)

Dire Straits on February 1, 2011 at 10:10 PM

Dire Straits: Me thinks,Community Organizing.

Oh sh*t,I hope Allahpundit doesn’t
read this!(snark):)

canopfor on February 1, 2011 at 10:14 PM

Oh look a Palin is behind post.
Did they finally stop posting on the evolution/creation thread?

darwin-t on February 1, 2011 at 10:14 PM

This poll is pure unvarnished bullsh!t. Although I have my doubts as to how Sarah Palin might fare in the primaries, as a South Dakotan, I can say absolutely, without any doubt, our state will vote for Palin over Obama if she is on the ballot. To claim otherwise is to ignore decades of South Dakota’s electoral history and political leanings.

gryphon202 on February 1, 2011 at 10:15 PM

PPP poll:

58% of Americas believe that Jared Loughner was a paid agent of Halliburton and Dick Cheney.

predator on February 1, 2011 at 10:15 PM

Don’t waste her, keep her for 2016.

OldEnglish on February 1, 2011 at 10:16 PM

If this poll is accurate, don’t just stick a fork in Palin; stick it in America.

Scott H on February 1, 2011 at 10:12 PM

I’m from South Dakota. I find this poll insulting to the point of pissing me off.

gryphon202 on February 1, 2011 at 10:16 PM

PPP = Push, Push, Push.

BDavis on February 1, 2011 at 10:16 PM

Dire Straits: Me thinks,Community Organizing.

Oh sh*t,I hope Allahpundit doesn’t
read this!(snark):)

canopfor on February 1, 2011 at 10:14 PM

ROFL..LOL!..:)

Dire Straits on February 1, 2011 at 10:17 PM

BS! No-one will lose to OBlah Blah in SD!

Propaganda only from the BS media Presstitutes!

Run Sarah Run!

Drill Baby Drill!

dhunter on February 1, 2011 at 10:17 PM

PPP poll:

59% of Americans believe that Al Jazeera is more balanced than Fox News.

predator on February 1, 2011 at 10:17 PM

gryphon: I guess I should have emphasized the IF at the beginning of my comment.

And my statement was a bit sparse. I meant that if SD can favor socialism by 8 points, this country is indeed over.

Scott H on February 1, 2011 at 10:18 PM

Looking forward for today’s Quote of the day thread to be Mitt Romney doubling down on RomneyCare and socialized Healthcare.

portlandon on February 1, 2011 at 10:18 PM

canopfor on February 1, 2011 at 10:14 PM
ROFL..LOL!..:)

Dire Straits on February 1, 2011 at 10:17 PM

Diore Straits:Tee-hee,ahem:)

canopfor on February 1, 2011 at 10:19 PM

Don’t waste her, keep her for 2016.

OldEnglish on February 1, 2011 at 10:16 PM

When people say stuff like this, I just shake my head. 2016… is too late for the nation, it just is.

Plus its akin to telling Sarah Palin to “leave the room, wait your turn, don’t rock the boat.”

Sharr on February 1, 2011 at 10:19 PM

gryphon: I guess I should have emphasized the IF at the beginning of my comment.

And my statement was a bit sparse. I meant that if SD can favor socialism by 8 points, this country is indeed over.

Scott H on February 1, 2011 at 10:18 PM

I know what you meant. It’s the poll that pisses me off, not any particular comment or commenter in this particular thread.

Congressional politics in my home state may be a mixed bag, but when it comes to presidential votes, South Dakota has literally been blood-red longer than any other state in the union, BAR-F**KING-NONE.

gryphon202 on February 1, 2011 at 10:20 PM

gryphon202 on February 1, 2011 at 10:16 PM

I live on the border its’ BS!

dhunter on February 1, 2011 at 10:20 PM

PPP poll:

63% of Americans believe that Megaton McCain is really very intelligent and weights only 115 pounds.

predator on February 1, 2011 at 10:20 PM

Diore Straits:Tee-hee,ahem:)

canopfor on February 1, 2011 at 10:19 PM

LOL!..:)

Dire Straits on February 1, 2011 at 10:20 PM

And Rush Limbaugh referred to her as President Palin on his program today.

I’ll take a guy who has been determined by the Sullivan group to be 99.6% of the time over a Democratic pollster (PPP)who skews it polls consistently in head to head polls so as to undersample conservatives and whites and to oversample minority women, liberals, moderates and Democrats.

technopeasant on February 1, 2011 at 10:22 PM

I live on the border its’ BS!

dhunter on February 1, 2011 at 10:20 PM

You mean the poll is BS, right? Which part of which state do you live in, pray-tell?

gryphon202 on February 1, 2011 at 10:22 PM

I don’t believe for a second the kos kids want Sarah Palin as the nominee. Let alone she would go down in history as the first female candidate for POTUS from a major party.

They will SWARM to the polls to push for Huckabee. As I wanted Howard Dean so badly.

Marcus on February 1, 2011 at 10:22 PM

Sooner or later Rasmussen will come out with a poll showing similar results.

And then he’ll be labeled a shill for Romney/RINOs/Whoever. And obviously can’t be trusted because he’s anti-Palin.

amerpundit on February 1, 2011 at 10:10 PM

If Rasmussen has her behind Obama by 8 in South Dakota in late 2011/early 2012 after she’s not only officially declared her candidacy but been seen and heard on the campaign trail for months, THEN I’ll consider her damaged goods.

Her numbers are bad right now for a very simple reason. Palin is perceived by many(even those on the right) as the media caricature that’s been played up for 2 1/2 years. Some of that is her own doing(the TLC show, Bristol on DWTS). But she can hardly be blamed for the constant smears thrown her way.

The real question will be what happens if/when she gets out there and starts talking directly to the electorate. The drive-bys will never give her a fair shake. But she’s shown she has a knack for getting her message out without having to go through them.

Doughboy on February 1, 2011 at 10:22 PM

What those numbers indicate is that she would only really be safe in states that Republicans won by at least 20 points in 2008. And there weren’t very many of those. It’s becoming clearer and clearer that a Palin nomination would be Goldwater redux for the GOP.

Jesus Christ. And this is our supposed savior (no pun intended, I assure you).

Vyce on February 1, 2011 at 10:23 PM

I’m from South Dakota. I find this poll insulting to the point of pissing me off.

gryphon202 on February 1, 2011 at 10:16 PM

Cut.
Jib.

I used to live in Spearfish. Earyly 80′s- first stab at college. Mid 90′s successful stab at college. Worked in Deadwood for the whole second stint.

BigWyo on February 1, 2011 at 10:24 PM

But she’s shown she has a knack for getting her message out without having to go through them.

Doughboy on February 1, 2011 at 10:22 PM

Who else does that remind me of…?

/snark

gryphon202 on February 1, 2011 at 10:24 PM

Thank Goodness Huntsman resigned his post under the Obama Administration to save our party. He will beat Obama, & return our nation to prosperity.

Huntsman/Bayh ’12!!

portlandon on February 1, 2011 at 10:24 PM

PPP poll:

93% of right-wing tea baggers believe that Moochelle Obummer is really James Brown in drag.

predator on February 1, 2011 at 10:25 PM

I used to live in Spearfish. Earyly 80′s- first stab at college. Mid 90′s successful stab at college. Worked in Deadwood for the whole second stint.

BigWyo on February 1, 2011 at 10:24 PM

Deadwood rocks. I’ve never gambled there, but shelling out for a hand or two of blackjack there is on my bucket list. Unfortunately, that may be years in coming, as I live on the other side of the state, near the western border of the glacial lakes region (Aberdeen, to be precise).

gryphon202 on February 1, 2011 at 10:25 PM

Sooner or later Rasmussen will come out with a poll showing similar results.

And then he’ll be labeled a shill for Romney/RINOs/Whoever. And obviously can’t be trusted because he’s anti-Palin.

amerpundit on February 1, 2011 at 10:10 PM

Only by the dieharders. Rasmussen is pretty honest. If He has Palin behind in the Heartland, then I’ll believe it.

portlandon on February 1, 2011 at 10:25 PM

gryphon202 on February 1, 2011 at 10:15 PM

From one South Dakotan to another, maybe it would help if she lost the North Dakotan accent:)

Lily on February 1, 2011 at 10:26 PM

Then we’ll have to nominate John Thune, won’t we! /

honsy on February 1, 2011 at 10:26 PM

gryphon202 on February 1, 2011 at 10:22 PM

Yea the poll is BS?
I can throw a rock and hit NE, SD, with feet in IA own land in SD and kid at SDSU!

dhunter on February 1, 2011 at 10:26 PM

Doom!

SurferDoc on February 1, 2011 at 10:26 PM

Plus its akin to telling Sarah Palin to “leave the room, wait your turn, don’t rock the boat.”

Sharr on February 1, 2011 at 10:19 PM

Not at all. It is simply that Obama will get his second term – the 52% will ensure that. I would prefer that Palin be a fresh start in 2016, rather than some centrist.

OldEnglish on February 1, 2011 at 10:26 PM

Jesus Christ. And this is our supposed savior (no pun intended, I assure you).

Vyce on February 1, 2011 at 10:23 PM

You assume that these numbers are true. I cede that they might be, but caution you that they may not. And I speak as a lifelong (32 years and counting) resident of South Dakota.

gryphon202 on February 1, 2011 at 10:27 PM

I would be interested to see how the poll question was worded. Probably something like this: “If the election were held today would you vote for Obama or are you a racist, teabagging redneck that would vote for Palin?”

farright on February 1, 2011 at 10:27 PM

does not compute

Alden Pyle on February 1, 2011 at 10:27 PM

Her numbers are bad right now for a very simple reason. Palin is perceived by many(even those on the right) as the media caricature that’s been played up for 2 1/2 years. Some of that is her own doing(the TLC show, Bristol on DWTS). But she can hardly be blamed for the constant smears thrown her way.

The real question will be what happens if/when she gets out there and starts talking directly to the electorate. The drive-bys will never give her a fair shake. But she’s shown she has a knack for getting her message out without having to go through them.

Doughboy on February 1, 2011 at 10:22 PM

Careful now. You’ll make enemies here for suggesting 1) yes, actually, her numbers really ARE bad (not reflexively chanting “the polls are biased!”), and 2) maybe that’s partly her fault.

Still, though, a Palin supporter recognizing and publicly acknowledging she has problems is actual progress.

Vyce on February 1, 2011 at 10:27 PM

Yea the poll is BS?
I can throw a rock and hit NE, SD, with feet in IA own land in SD and kid at SDSU!

dhunter on February 1, 2011 at 10:26 PM

I think I remember now. Wasn’t your kid flirting with possibly going to SDSU the last time we had this conversation? How are things going for the young one there now?

gryphon202 on February 1, 2011 at 10:27 PM

And Rush Limbaugh referred to her as President Palin on his program today.

I’ll take a guy who has been determined by the Sullivan group to be 99.6% of the time over a Democratic pollster (PPP)who skews it polls consistently in head to head polls so as to undersample conservatives and whites and to oversample minority women, liberals, moderates and Democrats.

technopeasant on February 1, 2011 at 10:22 PM

Heh.

Even if we were to assume that that’s real and he’s really been rated by the “Sullivan Group”…

You know the “Sullivan Group” he references is a company that was run by Tom Sullivan, the conservative FOX Business and talk radio host?

amerpundit on February 1, 2011 at 10:28 PM

Still, though, a Palin supporter recognizing and publicly acknowledging she has problems is actual progress.

Vyce on February 1, 2011 at 10:27 PM

As long as her “problems” have nothing to do with her principles, she still has my vote. I’m not into political gamesmanship.

gryphon202 on February 1, 2011 at 10:28 PM

Only by the dieharders. Rasmussen is pretty honest. If He has Palin behind in the Heartland, then I’ll believe it.

portlandon on February 1, 2011 at 10:25 PM

The dieharders are the people to which I’m referring. Obviously not just anyone will say it.

amerpundit on February 1, 2011 at 10:29 PM

93% of right-wing tea baggers believe that Moochelle Obummer is really James Brown in drag.

predator on February 1, 2011 at 10:25 PM

I would be willing to bet that 93% of tea party supporters don’t think about her at all.

darwin-t on February 1, 2011 at 10:29 PM

Vyce on February 1, 2011 at 10:23 PM

Shiite, I was way off, but at least you made it in the first 50 posts.

Now where is Good Lt., audiviscous and the other analysts to yell “You Palinista jackhats!” at everyone?

Bishop on February 1, 2011 at 10:29 PM

In the last two weeks we’ve found Palin up 1 point in Texas, up 1 point in Nebraska, and down 8 points in South Dakota.

Sorry, but Nebraska where the once extremely popular Ben Nelson got booed out of his favorite pizza joint because of his Obamacare vote? We’re supposed to believe that Palin eeks out a 1-point victory in that state over the guy who signed that debacle into law?

I’m not saying these numbers were fabricated. Maybe these people really did answer that way without them even being push polls. But come Election Day 2012, those same folks are going to have a pretty clear choice between Obama and whoever his opponent is. They know damn well by now who and what Barry is. If solid red states like Texas, Nebraska, and South Dakota are that overcome with PDS that they vote for 4 more years of this, then the nation is officially done.

Doughboy on February 1, 2011 at 10:30 PM

gryphon202 on February 1, 2011 at 10:27 PM

Hes’ a sophomore, hes’ doing well, thanks for asking!

dhunter on February 1, 2011 at 10:31 PM

What is this fascination with Huck? I wish I understood it. Somebody better announce quickly or we may end up stuck with this guy.

jeanie on February 1, 2011 at 10:12 PM

I agree. Every time I see one of these it’s a WTF moment for me. I can somewhat see the attraction of a Romney or Pawlenty
but the Huckster. Please!

P. Monk on February 1, 2011 at 10:31 PM

After conducting an intensive statistical analysis of recent polling data PPP confirmed today that both Todd and Bristol would vote for Obama if the election we held today.

Its over Sarah…/s

Geochelone on February 1, 2011 at 10:31 PM

If solid red states like Texas, Nebraska, and South Dakota are that overcome with PDS that they vote for 4 more years of this, then the nation is officially done.

Doughboy on February 1, 2011 at 10:30 PM

Ain’t gonna happen. Not here. The first Democratic presidential vote in South Dakota since 1964 isn’t going to be for Barack Hussein Soetoro-Obama. It’s just NOT.

gryphon202 on February 1, 2011 at 10:32 PM

Still, though, a Palin supporter recognizing and publicly acknowledging she has problems is actual progress.

Vyce on February 1, 2011 at 10:27 PM

Time Magazine – March 31, 1980

“National opinion polls continue to show Carter leading Reagan by an apparently comfortable margin of about 25%. They also show that more moderate Republicans like Ford would run better against the President. This suggests that Reagan is not the strongest G.O.P. choice for the November election and that he clearly faces an uphill battle.”

“Party operatives are plainly unhappy with his selection. In Massachusetts, where both Bush and Anderson defeated Reagan, party leaders are not yet reconciled to the Reagan candidacy. Says one: “There’s a vacuum of leadership at the national level; and what appears to be the Republican Party’s response? A 69-year-old man who has done virtually nothing for years”

“Reagan has a history of committing rhetorical blunders that drive away voters. His quest in 1976 was damaged when he suggested vaguely, without proper research and consideration, that $90 billion in federal programs should be turned back to the states. He then spent months explaining that the affected programs would not be eliminated, only transferred. As Governor, Reagan was outraged by student unrest and once proclaimed: “The state of California has no business subsidizing intellectual curiosity.”

“Worse perhaps than the verbal gaffe is Reagan’s relentlessly simple-minded discussion of complex problems. He is aware that he is charged with this failing, and in his 1967 inaugural address on becoming Governor of California, he asserted: “We have been told there are no simple answers to complex problems. Well, the truth is there are simple answers, just not easy ones.”

predator on February 1, 2011 at 10:33 PM

And let’s be clear about that.

According to “Rush Limbaugh: An Army of One” by Zev Chafets, there is no Sullivan Group that monitors Limbaugh’s remarks.

That’s the book that was allowed access personally by Limbaugh to interview his family and friends.

amerpundit on February 1, 2011 at 10:33 PM

Bradley Effect?

DeathB4Tyranny on February 1, 2011 at 10:34 PM

predator on February 1, 2011 at 10:33 PM

+10000

portlandon on February 1, 2011 at 10:36 PM

Bradley Effect?

DeathB4Tyranny on February 1, 2011 at 10:34 PM

1/2 right B+
BS Effect!

dhunter on February 1, 2011 at 10:37 PM

So if Palin doesn’t win the Iowa caucus I guess she might as well drop out and cut her loses (if she decides to run). If she doesn’t win Iowa…..she probably won’t won’t win South Carolina either.

terryannonline on February 1, 2011 at 10:37 PM

+10000

portlandon on February 1, 2011 at 10:36 PM

Thanks, Pardner. It’s very, very early folks. Those who ignore history are…how’s that go?

predator on February 1, 2011 at 10:37 PM

South Dakota has literally been blood-red longer than any other state in the union, BAR-F**KING-NONE.

gryphon202

heck, the Dakotas haven’t even been in the union till just about half-time.

but the point isn’t whether she would lose to Obama by 8 in SD, it’s that she’s generally not wanted.

audiculous on February 1, 2011 at 10:41 PM

Bradley Effect?

DeathB4Tyranny on February 1, 2011 at 10:34 PM

It definitely exists. But it’s not enough to account for this difference.

At least Kos isn’t using Research 2000 anymore.

Dreadnought on February 1, 2011 at 10:42 PM

terryannonline on February 1, 2011 at 10:37 PM

IA is a caucus and they are scary!

It depends on who show up, lots of social cons and evangelicals here.

I hate like hell to say it but if they get mobilized, as they tend to, Huck could win, God I hate myself for sayin it.
I can’t believe Evangelicals can be so easily fooled but its possible in a caucus situation. It was the beginning of the end for Hillary as the Obama thugs found they could intimidate the caucus goers!

dhunter on February 1, 2011 at 10:42 PM

SURRENDER DOROTHY !

We’ll get you and your little dog, too…

silverfox on February 1, 2011 at 10:42 PM

The 2012 election was teed up for Mark Sanford.

joepub on February 1, 2011 at 10:42 PM

Wow! Palin is already beat. She shouldn’t bother to run. Teh Won has won SD by 8. Wow! Palin is already beat. Blah blah blah blah blah!!!!

SilentWatcher on February 1, 2011 at 10:44 PM

dhunter on February 1, 2011 at 10:42 PM

I hope Huck doesn’t Iowa either. What do people see in Huckabee? He seems nice but I don’t get it.

terryannonline on February 1, 2011 at 10:45 PM

Mitt Romney actually lost 4 while Mike Huckabee gained 7 in the PPP results since May 2010.

When Jim DeMint is in the mix, Romney gained 1 and Huckabee gained 5 since the May polling.

Palin lost in both.

texasconserv on February 1, 2011 at 10:46 PM

heck, the Dakotas haven’t even been in the union till just about half-time.

audiculous on February 1, 2011 at 10:41 PM

As opposed to states like Alaska and Hawaii which have been in the union half the time that South Dakota has, douchebag. South Dakota’s votes went to John McCain decisively in 2008, and Obama won’t win here in 2012, either. Here, a ham sandwich could run against Obama and win. Unless this poll speaks directly to “general dislike” of Sarah Palin, GTFO, STFD, and STFU!

gryphon202 on February 1, 2011 at 10:46 PM

Hey Allah. I noticed that when Erickson ran his bogus “straw poll” you couldn’t WAIT to post that, but I notice today that there is one poll that is strangely absent from Hot Air.

You know the one, the TOWNHALL/HOT AIR Straw Poll that your parent company put a ton of advertising and promotional effort into.

The one that Sarah Palin wiped the floor with the competition?

Why is this Allah?

Why WOULDN’T Hot Air want to publish the results of THEIR OWN STRAW POLL?

I find it funny, BTW, now that Sarah blew everyone away, good old Townhall is adding MORE names to the list, including those who have said they are absolutely not going to run.

Why is THAT, huh?

When are you candy ass RINOs going to accept that Palin is going to be our next President?

You can hide the decline, and you can stack the odds, but on January 20, 2013 at or about 12:01 pm, Sarah Palin will be taking the Oath of Office, as President of these United States, and there is nothing you can do about it.

gary4205 on February 1, 2011 at 10:46 PM

Careful now. You’ll make enemies here for suggesting 1) yes, actually, her numbers really ARE bad (not reflexively chanting “the polls are biased!”), and 2) maybe that’s partly her fault.

Still, though, a Palin supporter recognizing and publicly acknowledging she has problems is actual progress.

Vyce on February 1, 2011 at 10:27 PM

I’ve always made it clear how I feel about Palin. Her numbers are bad. I’ll concede that. But I’ll also offer up two caveats. First, how could they NOT be bad? Anyone subject to the ideological rape(yes, I’ll stand by that metaphor) that this woman’s had to deal with for nearly 2 1/2 years would take a toll on anyone’s popularity. And second, the most admired woman in America today, Hillary Clinton, just 3 years ago had unfavorables topping 50%.

The reason I dismiss these numbers is because it’s February 2011. She hasn’t even announced her candidacy much less started campaigning. And last time I checked, wasn’t that the whole point of a political campaign? To sell yourself to the voters? Obviously if the election were held today, Obama would wipe the floor with Palin. Most of the electorate knows nothing about her record or a lot of her positions on issues(outside of social ones).

Be patient. It’s a long time between now and November 2012. Hell, it’s a long time between now and November 2011. Palin will go as far as she can take herself. It won’t be the drive-bys who stop her. It won’t be the nutroots. And it won’t be Obama. Barring a miraculous economy recovery, the opportunity will be there for her to sell her agenda to a skeptical and nervous electorate. I think she has it in her, but there’s no doubt it’s gonna be an uphill climb.

Doughboy on February 1, 2011 at 10:46 PM

There is only 1 poll that counts and this ain’t it. (Apologies to my late English Teacher. RIP)

Mormon Doc on February 1, 2011 at 10:48 PM

Any advantage is coming from East River. More population..more leaning twards the libspaz mentality.

BigWyo on February 1, 2011 at 10:11 PM

E. River people are city people = liberals.
N & SD should have been split to E & W.
The people in W. ND & W. SD are the same.
The folks in E. ND & E. SD = liberals.
We in W ND find E. North Dakotans, well, weird.

Badger40 on February 1, 2011 at 10:48 PM

Ever consider that PPP did what Kos’ previous polling partners did and just make up numbers?

Seriously, how long did those guys get away with taking Kos’ money (I still relish the thought of that brain dead chimp getting robbed blind…) while handing him piles of fabricated poll numbers that he’d (and most importantly, his audience) would like, rather than reflections of the actual reality on the ground?

PPP is Democratic Party appendage, you think they’re above fabricating poll numbers to try and rook the public?

The Democratic party’s stock and trade has been defrauding the public going all the way back to the New Deal!

They prove Lincoln’s point: All of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time.

They keep forgetting that last part: NEVER all of the people all of the time.

Toss it in the circular file with the rest of the garbage.

SuperCool on February 1, 2011 at 10:49 PM

The Rush Limbaugh effect:

Sarah Palin has increased her Facebook membership over 11.500 new members in the last 12 hours.

technopeasant on February 1, 2011 at 10:49 PM

E. River people are city people = liberals.
N & SD should have been split to E & W.
The people in W. ND & W. SD are the same.
The folks in E. ND & E. SD = liberals.
We in W ND find E. North Dakotans, well, weird.

Badger40 on February 1, 2011 at 10:48 PM

I don’t find this to be true. At the risk of being terribly politically incorrect, the largest bastions of liberalism that I’ve seen, based on electoral patterns, is in and around the Indian reservations.

gryphon202 on February 1, 2011 at 10:51 PM

it’s that she’s generally not wanted.

audiculous on February 1, 2011 at 10:41 PM

You should take your own words to heart there Baracolicious.

BigWyo on February 1, 2011 at 10:52 PM

I like ham sandwiches, or even just plain ham. If South Dakota is running ham sandwiches for political office, I may just move there.

Bishop on February 1, 2011 at 10:52 PM

Ever consider that PPP did what Kos’ previous polling partners did and just make up numbers?

But why PPP want to show Palin so behind? I think Allahpundit has a good point… Dems think she’ll be an easy opponent to beat so why not prop her up?

terryannonline on February 1, 2011 at 10:53 PM

Here, a ham sandwich could run against Obama and win.
gryphon202

that’s what I would have thought.

so I guess that if Palin runs against Obama, she’s gonna finish behind both.

audiculous on February 1, 2011 at 10:54 PM

You should take your own words to heart there Baracolicious.

BigWyo on February 1, 2011 at 10:52 PM

Some of the libtards around here remind me of my dad’s oldest brother. Old Uncle Pat has never voted Democratic, ever, and just happens to live in Illinois (although he’s from South Dakota originally). He once told me, “Face it. She [Sarah Palin] is common trailer trash.” I told him, “Nice of you, a lifelong Democrat, to give us conservatives advice on who to nominate.” I haven’t heard from him on that subject since, although he is still a walking talking points factory.

gryphon202 on February 1, 2011 at 10:54 PM

PPP is Kos’s pollster, but remember that the Kos crowd rightly or wrongly wants to face Palin in 2012. If PPP is cooking its data to do the left’s bidding (which I have no reason to believe), it would theoretically be showing strong numbers for her in order to convince Republicans that she can win and they should therefore nominate her, no?

Cognitive dissonance?

darclon on February 1, 2011 at 10:55 PM

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