Surprise: No change in Obama’s approval rating after SOTU

posted at 7:45 pm on January 31, 2011 by Allahpundit

In a sane world, watching this guy cravenly avoid straight talk on America’s fiscal crisis in order to talk about salmon and high-speed rail would have lost him 10 points overnight. At the very least, one would think the sheer tedium of his laundry-list approach might have cost him a point or two. Nope.

Gallup Daily tracking finds no change in President Obama’s job approval rating after his State of the Union address. The president’s 50% average for the week ending Sunday, Jan. 30, matches the prior week’s rating, which was the highest weekly average for Obama since May.

Those who watched or saw coverage of the president’s State of the Union address on Jan. 25 generally gave it positive reviews. The speech does not, however, appear to have significantly affected Obama’s job approval rating. Obama averaged 50% for the five days preceding his speech (Jan. 20-24) and 50% for the five days afterward (Jan. 26-30).

The dirty little secret about SOTU speeches is that, contra conventional wisdom, they’re not reliable bounce-generators. Nate Silver crunched the numbers on this last week and graphed them out. Not only are most bounces exceedingly modest — usually two points or so, within the margin of error — but every president since JFK has delivered at least one SOTU where his numbers dropped afterward (sometimes precipitously). In fact, the only guy who saw consistent sizable bounces after his SOTUs was … Clinton, of all people, whom I remember for delivering the same sort of endless, duller-than-dull lists that The One dropped on us last week. Maybe that’s the secret to a decent post-SOTU showing — have the speech focus on all the fine policy gifts you’re preparing to leave under the public’s Christmas tree. The big difference between Clinton and Obama, of course: Clinton could afford the gifts on his list.

Exit question: Aren’t most SOTU speeches laundry lists, though?


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Looks like his reincarnation as Ronaldus Magnus has yet to capture the public imagination.

JammieWearingFool on January 31, 2011 at 7:53 PM

http://hillbuzz.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/cartbam.gif

No change?

O but Barry is changing. He is morphing into…click the link!

Geochelone on January 31, 2011 at 7:54 PM

scary he’s at 50%

jp on January 31, 2011 at 7:56 PM

exit question
true, but this is the WON…his speeches usually bring tingles to kool-aid drinkers across the country

cmsinaz on January 31, 2011 at 7:57 PM

How about this as an opening line:
“I am here tonight tor report on the state of the Union, and the State of the Union is such that we’re all royally screwed.”

michaelo on January 31, 2011 at 7:58 PM

I thought CBS instant poll (hahha)told everyone loved it and it was Obama’s greatest speech ever!

Oh wait. And weren’t people here running around like chicken littles afterward as well, worried “he’s come back”?

Sharr on January 31, 2011 at 7:58 PM

ZerObama’s STFU is ALWAYS total BS.

The only one who looks at him with Cindy-Lou Whoo eyes at the STFU is Bill O’Reilly…over-inflated hack.

Gob on January 31, 2011 at 7:59 PM

Did someone say “salmon?”

Christien on January 31, 2011 at 7:59 PM

President I WON!!!!!

Whoooo Wheeee.

The farce is strong in this one.

hillbillyjim on January 31, 2011 at 8:04 PM

scary he’s at 50%

jp on January 31, 2011 at 7:56 PM

He’s graded on a serious curve. We put an amateur on the presidency .

CWforFreedom on January 31, 2011 at 8:05 PM

“Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell phone-only status, cell phone-mostly status, and phone lines…”

What does being Hispanic have anything to do with knowing if Obowma is a complete incompetent empty suit who’s policies and Marxist/Socialist ideology driven agenda that is turning this country into a non-working toilet in a Tijuana whore house…?

… Oh, wait!

Seven Percent Solution on January 31, 2011 at 8:08 PM

Those other 50% must be far, far away from here. I can’t find one in ten who thinks Ojesus is doing anything but ruining what’s left of our country.*

*note — this is strong yellow-dog Democrat territory

hillbillyjim on January 31, 2011 at 8:09 PM

Don’t most Presidents go up after a SOTU? Break even equals drop.

Buford Gooch on January 31, 2011 at 8:13 PM

If I’m ever president this will be my SOTU speech.

“Sit your asses down, stop clapping and stop being fake. The state of our union is one hot piece of mess. Do your job to fix it, and I will sign the legislation. If you cannot do this, please resign now. Thank you and good night!”

SouthernGent on January 31, 2011 at 8:19 PM

Feb. 6th will be a significant day, for Ronald Reagan.

Schadenfreude on January 31, 2011 at 8:25 PM

B-b-but what about that instapoll that had 92 percent of the universe loving the teflon messiah?

John the Libertarian on January 31, 2011 at 8:27 PM

Exit question: Aren’t most SOTU speeches laundry lists, though?

Yes!..:)

PS..Nice blog post Allah!

Dire Straits on January 31, 2011 at 8:28 PM

Exit question: Aren’t most SOTU speeches laundry lists, though?

where does that term come from?

It may originate from as early as the Civil War, when soldiers would jot a list of their items to be laundered (and hopefully returned). In any event, it comes from the late nineteenth to early twentieth century when many sent their laundry out to be cleaned.

Columnist Ed Quillen who worked in a commercial laundry shop as a boy wrote in the Denver Post June 6, 2008, that the term refers to what must be listed when you send your laundry to a service, since 1) there were so many distinctions between different pieces of clothing for men, women, children, and various professions, and 2) the laundry service had to mark every individual piece of clothing per customer, sort into piles by color and water temperature, and ensure that all the pieces were returned to their proper owner.

A laundry list could be very personalized per customer, and might have been frequently re-used for loyal customers. Those with long laundry lists had more clothes and were probably more wealthy than others, and all their belongings would have been more difficult to track.

Through the years the term has come to mean any relatively long, detailed list of items.

It has also come to have a negative connotation. You may find usage such as “She recited a long laundry list of familiar complaints” or “His application had a long laundry list of accomplishments” or “We have a laundry list of tasks” – smacking of dullness and overkill when a focus on fewer high-impact priorities may be more effective.

An exception may be when the term is used as an organizing principle. Some commercial enterprise business system and Web storefront software like DDMS use “laundry list” to mean a categorized list of items that a customer frequently buys, particularly in the office supply

Read more: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Where_does_the_term_%27laundry_list%27_come_from#ixzz1CfNW00Yl

just thought i’d interject some factoid…..

ted c on January 31, 2011 at 8:29 PM

John the Libertarian on January 31, 2011 at 8:27 PM

Good to see you Friend..:)

Dire Straits on January 31, 2011 at 8:29 PM

“Sit your asses down, stop clapping and stop being fake. The state of our union is one hot piece of mess. Do your job to fix it, and I will sign the legislation. If you cannot do this, please resign now. Thank you and good night!”

SouthernGent on January 31, 2011 at 8:19 PM

Well that is too short. The camera crew would still be adjusting the focus on their lenses. And when the talking heads start their round table discussions about what you said..well there would be nothing to talk about.

Electrongod on January 31, 2011 at 8:29 PM

He didn’t lose any points because nobody watched the damn thing. They probably just assumed he said something good.

Emily M. on January 31, 2011 at 8:30 PM

If I’m ever president this will be my SOTU speech.

“Sit your asses down, stop clapping and stop being fake. The state of our union is one hot piece of mess. Do your job to fix it, and I will sign the legislation. If you cannot do this, please resign now. Thank you and good night!”

SouthernGent on January 31, 2011 at 8:19 PM

You have my vote. :D

Emily M. on January 31, 2011 at 8:31 PM

He didn’t lose any points because nobody watched the damn thing. They probably just assumed he said something good.

Emily M. on January 31, 2011 at 8:30 PM

Nice post!..:)

Dire Straits on January 31, 2011 at 8:35 PM

Dire Straits on January 31, 2011 at 8:29 PM

Cheers!

John the Libertarian on January 31, 2011 at 8:35 PM

Electrongod on January 31, 2011 at 8:29 PM

And Sheila Jackson-Lee would tackle him with the strength of ten of the biggest footy players in Football. She has to ALWAYS get her weird-azz right up in any President’s grill when it comes to the STFU. She even practically tackled GWB (no lie!)

Gob on January 31, 2011 at 8:35 PM

Dire Straits on January 31, 2011 at 8:29 PM
Cheers!

John the Libertarian on January 31, 2011 at 8:35 PM

..:)

Dire Straits on January 31, 2011 at 8:36 PM

Did Michelle smile once? She’s pissed ever since they muzzled her. Looks like an angry women.

Hummer53 on January 31, 2011 at 8:49 PM

Let’s face some facts.

The man was promoted and groomed to be the opponent of McCain. He was advertised as … well, we all know that story.

What we face now, is an American White House without leadership, without guidance, without direction, without care and without substance or vision.

What America elected was a farce, a fake, a fraud, a faux through funding by America through the Unions.

It is time we face the fact that the electorate was fooled, and it is time that this person, be held to account. I have no confidence in him. I don’t care if he is orange. I do not trust him with the security of our Nation, I do not trust him to set forth policy, I do not trust him to lead, I do not trust him at all.

It is time, America. Say what you mean, and mean what you say.

I do not trust this person.

Key West Reader on January 31, 2011 at 8:50 PM

Exit question: Aren’t most SOTU speeches laundry lists, though?

In BO’s case, it’s dirty laundry.

Lourdes on January 31, 2011 at 8:53 PM

Aren’t most SOTU speeches laundry lists, though?

Yeah, but the stain ain’t coming out of this brief.

chickasaw42 on January 31, 2011 at 8:55 PM

He didn’t lose any points because nobody watched the damn thing. They probably just assumed he said something good.

Emily M. on January 31, 2011 at 8:30 PM

He didn’t mention his stash. Thus, the majority of his adulators were busy elsewhere.

Lourdes on January 31, 2011 at 8:56 PM

The economy will ultimately define Barry’s “popularity”.

GarandFan on January 31, 2011 at 9:13 PM

Gallup….they’re the NPR of polls.

I refuse to believe the outcomes of their polls. They could just as easily say, he’s at 60% but that would be to obvious…so keep him steady at 50%. *sigh*

capejasmine on January 31, 2011 at 9:29 PM

Am I one of the only ones who is looking at this in the exact opposite way as Allahpundit? Allahpundit is surprised the rating did not dip, but as Silvers rankings show, more often then not there is at least a modest 1 to 2 point bounce, but Obama did not even get that. I am surprised that there was no modest bounce. Anybody else looking at this as the glass if half full for Republicans (like I am)

Indy82 on January 31, 2011 at 9:42 PM

He didn’t lose any points because nobody watched the damn thing. They probably just assumed he said something good.

Emily M. on January 31, 2011 at 8:30 PM

I admit that I didn’t watch it, not because I assumed he’d say something good, but because I knew he was already planning to lie through his teeth!

I was not wrong imho

Vntnrse on January 31, 2011 at 11:35 PM

I long for the speech,
“The Union is doing fine”…
Not in my lifetime.

We’ll be digging out
From the debt we make today
For a hundred years.

Haiku Guy on February 1, 2011 at 7:37 AM

People are polled out.
It’s off-year, February.
It does not matter.

When people are polled,
They are saying “Whatever…”
About half the time.

Haiku Guy on February 1, 2011 at 7:40 AM

Obama’s bounce UP to 50% was probably a “sympathy” vote after his conciliatory speech at the memorial service for the Tucson victims, and the Republican House suspended its operations out of respect for Gabrielle Giffords. The fact that Obama didn’t get any ADDITIONAL bounce from the SOTU speech showed that it flopped.

But there are now issues to be resolved. Egypt is on the brink of a coup d’etat. A judge has ruled ObamaCare unconstitutional. The debt ceiling might need to be raised, and budgets need to be cut. People will stop lamenting what happened to Gabrielle Giffords, and want their government, including the newly elected House, to address these issues, and if Obama is on the wrong side, his ratings will start slipping again.

Steve Z on February 1, 2011 at 11:41 AM