Conrad leads retiree class of 2012 Democrats in Senate

posted at 12:33 pm on January 18, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

It didn’t take long for the midterm election to have an impact on the 23 Democrats who must defend their seats in 2012.  One of them, Kent Conrad of North Dakota, will announce his retirement today rather than fight for another term.  Conrad will retire from the Senate at the relatively young age of 64:

North Dakota Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad plans to announce his retirement today, according to two informed Democratic sources, creating a potentially prime pickup opportunity for Republicans in a GOP-leaning state.

Conrad, who currently chairs the Senate Budget Committee, has been in office since 1986 and risen to become one of the most influential — and intellectual — policy makers operating in the nation’s capital.

Conrad had been open about his ambivalence about running for another term and those doubts almost certainly increased following a 2010 election that decimated the Democratic party.

Conrad will be the first Senate Democrat to retire after his party lost six Senate seats in the midterms, but he probably won’t be the last.  Republicans will almost certainly pick up at least the four seats necessary to gain control in the upper chamber, as Democrats have to defend 13 more seats than the GOP in 2012.  With minority status looming for Democrats, the desire to stay will diminish for many.  The big surprise here may be that it was Conrad who decided to pull the plug first and not Jim Webb in Virginia, who has hardly bothered to fundraise, or Ben Nelson in Nebraska, who’s certain to be especially targeted by the GOP for his vote in support of ObamaCare.

Actually, the North Dakota seat may have been a tough pickup for Republicans if Conrad fought for it.  The big GOP rock star, former governor John Hoeven, won the other Senate seat when Byron Dorgan saw the writing on the midterm wall and bailed out of his re-election bid.  Republicans now have almost two years to build its bench and find a contender for the race.

On the Democratic side, Chris Cillizza reports that Earl Pomeroy may decide to aim for Conrad’s seat, which will be difficult to do.  Pomeroy lost his own state-wide re-election bid for the at-large House seat to Rick Berg by almost ten points.  The heavily Republican state is unlikely to throw its support to the man it rejected in November.  Since this will also be a presidential election, and North Dakota goes big for Republican candidates at the top of the ticket, any Democrat contending for the Senate slot will have an even greater disadvantage.  Conrad’s retirement makes this a much less complicated race, and will allow the GOP to put resources into other Senate races.


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Don’t blow it GOP.

rbj on January 18, 2011 at 12:36 PM

Abandon ship!

Good thing all these ’10 and ’12 Democrats have Barry on their side to campaign for them, unlike the Dems in ’94.

ChrisB on January 18, 2011 at 12:37 PM

51 Democrat seats in the Senate
51 Democrat seats
You take one down, pass it around,
50 Democrat seats in the Senate

BobMbx on January 18, 2011 at 12:38 PM

Take the money and run, Conrad.

Extrafishy on January 18, 2011 at 12:39 PM

I sure hope to goodness the new rnc gets the message to help real R’s, not the rino type! We will be watching them and if they don’t do the right thing, no money to them!
L

letget on January 18, 2011 at 12:39 PM

It is imperative that the GOP take a supermajority in the senate in 2012, in order to start repairing the immense damage the 0bama regime has caused.

Rebar on January 18, 2011 at 12:40 PM

who’s certain to be especially targeted by the GOP…

- Hateful Right Wing Hater

Now you’ve done it, Ed.

Jaibones on January 18, 2011 at 12:42 PM

Is there something coming up in ND that Conrad can leach onto and try to become elected too?

upinak on January 18, 2011 at 12:42 PM

Sherrod Brown, call your office.

OhioCoastie on January 18, 2011 at 12:42 PM

now Kent can help cut SS with no fear of repercussions.
Deep in my heart where my lefty-ness still exists in a tiny chamber I can hear ‘A-HA!’. From the get go I said Obama was selected to be the Dem to cut SS, since no GOPer would do so.

It would be nicely ironic if the GOP became the save the elderly! party after all this.

I know we need to do something urgently. I say income caps for receiving SS.

Obama will be all too happy to lift the payroll tax, he suggested that in the primaries early on and then shut up about it.

ginaswo on January 18, 2011 at 12:43 PM

It is imperative that the GOP take a supermajority in the senate in 2012, in order to start repairing the immense damage the 0bama regime has caused.

Rebar on January 18, 2011 at 12:40 PM

This.

The stupid masses will re-elect Barry. We must render him powerless.

Knucklehead on January 18, 2011 at 12:44 PM

If the RNC doesn’t get that we want real conservatives, we’ll give our $$ to the Senate Conservatives Fund (Jim De Mint’s). Can you hear us now, RNC???

4Freedom on January 18, 2011 at 12:44 PM

It is imperative that the GOP take a supermajority in the senate in 2012, in order to start repairing the immense damage the 0bama regime has caused.

Rebar on January 18, 2011 at 12:40 PM

Is there any conceivable way that can actually happen? We’d need to hold onto every seat we currently have, and then get 13-14 more out of 23 they’re defending. If we want a filibuster-proof majority, we would need six beyond that.

I try to be optimistic about things, but either scenario seems very, very unlikely. As I mentioned in the headline thread, I have a feeling the Democrats won’t like the idea of filibuster reform in 2013 as much as they like it now. And if (God forbid!) Obama wins re-election, we’d be hosed without 66 seats. I really want there to be some way to make this work, but… I’m incredibly skeptical.

WesternActor on January 18, 2011 at 12:44 PM

My little runaway, run, run, run, runnnawaaayyy…

Lourdes on January 18, 2011 at 12:45 PM

Actually, the North Dakota seat may have been a tough pickup for Republicans if Conrad fought for it.

I don’t get it? Conrad certainly votes like a liberal, and if North Dakota is such a red state, how is it, that if he ran to defend his seat, it would be a tough election for anyone challenging him?

capejasmine on January 18, 2011 at 12:46 PM

Don’t blow it GOP.

rbj on January 18, 2011 at 12:36 PM

DITTO. Please.

Lourdes on January 18, 2011 at 12:46 PM

and not Jim Webb in Virginia

I bet Jim Webb runs in Virginia… Obama needs Webb…

ninjapirate on January 18, 2011 at 12:46 PM

Don’t blow it GOP.

rbj on January 18, 2011 at 12:36 PM

my thoughts exactly

cmsinaz on January 18, 2011 at 12:47 PM

I don’t get it? Conrad certainly votes like a liberal, and if North Dakota is such a red state, how is it, that if he ran to defend his seat, it would be a tough election for anyone challenging him?

capejasmine on January 18, 2011 at 12:46 PM

Unions…. lots and lots of them.

upinak on January 18, 2011 at 12:50 PM

Republicans will almost certainly pick up at least the four seats necessary to gain control in the upper chamber, as Democrats have to defend 13 more seats than the GOP in 2012.

Let’s not get hasty, Ed. Who are the “almost certain” pick ups? It’s quite likely we’ll give back MA, so really, we might need 5. Virginia is a good potential pick up. North Dakota. Nebraska. Who else? Possibly Ohio? Maybe Missouri? What about West Virginia?

I wouldn’t say anything is “almost certain” at this point.

Abby Adams on January 18, 2011 at 12:50 PM

It’s quite likely that the Republican primaries and eventual nomination with be a debacle (SP won’t even run, is my bet), so the conservatives would be better off working for a Senate takeover and a House entranchment.

Thenif the media helps Obama stumble and lie to a second term, at least he can be neutered effectively.

Jack Bauer on January 18, 2011 at 12:50 PM

Better to retire – then to be defeated.

GarandFan on January 18, 2011 at 12:52 PM

I’d be willing to have the remaining 534 retire or resign.

PappyD61 on January 18, 2011 at 12:52 PM

Sherrod Brown, call your office.

OhioCoastie on January 18, 2011 at 12:42 PM

Brown is a disgrace. Do we have anyone in the pipeline to replace him and join Rob Portman, who replaced Rinovich?

BuckeyeSam on January 18, 2011 at 12:54 PM

Don’t blow it GOP.

rbj on January 18, 2011 at 12:36 PM

This. I am praying the GOP will take advantage of this all further Democrat retirements. We need all of the seats we can get.

Shogun144 on January 18, 2011 at 12:54 PM

I don’t get it? Conrad certainly votes like a liberal, and if North Dakota is such a red state, how is it, that if he ran to defend his seat, it would be a tough election for anyone challenging him?

capejasmine on January 18, 2011 at 12:46 PM

People win Senate races. Not just parties. That’s why Castle would have won running away and O’Donnell went down in flames.

KingGold on January 18, 2011 at 12:54 PM

OoPs.

There should be a and there before the all in my post.

Shogun144 on January 18, 2011 at 12:55 PM

The big GOP rock star, former governor John Hoeven, won the other Senate seat when Byron Dorgan saw the writing on the midterm wall and bailed out of his re-election bid. Republicans now have almost two years to build its bench and find a contender for the race.

Therein lies the rub. Hoeven probably could have won even if Dorgan had run for re-election, but are there other ND Republicans who have statewide recognition and can beat Pomeroy? Admittedly, North Dakota doesn’t have a large population, and it’s relatively cheap to advertise there, but NOW is the time to recruit a good candidate.

Steve Z on January 18, 2011 at 12:57 PM

Admittedly, North Dakota doesn’t have a large population, and it’s relatively cheap to advertise there, but NOW is the time to recruit a good candidate.

Steve Z on January 18, 2011 at 12:57 PM

We’ve got pretty much every statewide office in that state. Those people have conservative and winning records. I’m withholding my judgment, though, until this guy weighs in.

KingGold on January 18, 2011 at 1:00 PM

Bye.

Good Lt on January 18, 2011 at 1:02 PM

Brown is a disgrace. Do we have anyone in the pipeline to replace him and join Rob Portman, who replaced Rinovich?

BuckeyeSam on January 18, 2011 at 12:54 PM

Names I’ve seen mentioned so far:
– Kevin Coughlin
– Jon Husted
– Jim Jordan
– Josh Mandel
– Seth Morgan
– Mary Taylor

steebo77 on January 18, 2011 at 1:04 PM

Another one bites the dust. Come on ND, with all that oil money surely you can find a decent R to elect.

Kissmygrits on January 18, 2011 at 1:04 PM

So, Democrats, you still wanna end that filibuster option?

aunursa on January 18, 2011 at 1:04 PM

Hmmmm… Are the old Democrats retiring so that new Democrats running can say “I didn’t vote for ObamaCare”?

CCRWM on January 18, 2011 at 1:04 PM

I don’t get it? Conrad certainly votes like a liberal, and if North Dakota is such a red state, how is it, that if he ran to defend his seat, it would be a tough election for anyone challenging him?

capejasmine on January 18, 2011 at 12:46 PM

Unions…. lots and lots of them.

upinak on January 18, 2011 at 12:50 PM

They are massively dependant on farm and ethanol subsidies. And with the senate, it’s all about how much money you bring home.

Lily on January 18, 2011 at 1:05 PM

KingGold on January 18, 2011 at 1:00 PM

I am not worried about a blog anymore.

Think about the people who have Oil/Gas Comp drilling on their land… getting mineral rights. If the Fed Gubmint try to pass a weak yet nasty little bill that halts BLM land and drilling over by ND (which will inlcude SD, MO and WY), watch these farmers who were poor than given some money for drilling on their land flip so fast on Democrats those who are democrats from any state that has moved there may want to flee in fear.

The Cali immigrants are going to start hating life.

upinak on January 18, 2011 at 1:06 PM

They are massively dependant on farm and ethanol subsidies. And with the senate, it’s all about how much money you bring home.

Lily on January 18, 2011 at 1:05 PM

But they are becoming more independent on Oil and Natural Gas.

Lets see who wins out… I am going to bet on Fossils.

upinak on January 18, 2011 at 1:07 PM

Times up on this Blade Runner Replicant. He must be retired.

Geochelone on January 18, 2011 at 1:11 PM

Dorgan, Pomeroy and now Countrywide Conrad? Now that does this ND girls heart good!

thevastlane on January 18, 2011 at 1:11 PM

EUNUCH Republicans…….

…….still cajone free for thee!!

PappyD61 on January 18, 2011 at 1:14 PM

Woah…Woah…hold on! You said “target”. Seriously…this is great news!

SPGuy on January 18, 2011 at 1:24 PM

CYA

CWforFreedom on January 18, 2011 at 1:29 PM

The stupid masses will re-elect Barry. We must render him powerless.

Knucklehead on January 18, 2011 at 12:44 PM

They will always have the OJ jury (black racists) but that crowd alone cannot elect a president. In 2008 they also had the dipsh*t white guilt bunch and the weak-minded “center” who succumbed to eight years of incessant media Bush bashing. And let’s not forget the worst Republican presidential candidate since Dole. I believe Barry has used up his allotment of white guilt and Bush bashing will be old and busted. They are desperately counting on another weak-as-water Republican to bolster Duh Won’s chances. Why do you think they are pushing so hard for Mitt and Huck?

Extrafishy on January 18, 2011 at 1:33 PM

Assuming a decent GOP presidential candidate who can run fairly even with Obama in 2012, here’s what I see as the lay of the land today:

The Senate currently has 47 Rs and 53 Ds (counting Lieberman and Sanders). 10 R seats are up in 2012, compared to 23 D seats.

At this point, the Rs stand little to no chance in California (Dianne Feinstein — for now), Connecticut (Joe Lieberman — for now), Delaware (Biden? Carper? Kaufman?), Hawaii (Daniel Akaka — for now), Maryland (Ben Cardin), Minnesota (Amy Klobuchar), New Jersey (Bob Menendez), New York (Kirsten Gillibrand), Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse), Vermont (Bernie Sanders), or Washington (Maria Cantwell). That’s 11 safe seats for the Ds, putting their baseline at 41 seats.

The Rs are likely to hold all 10 of their seats, with Maine, Massachusetts, and Nevada being the riskiest. Assuming no major SNAFUs, this puts the baseline for the Rs at 47 seats.

The Ds are likely to lose Florida (Bill Nelson), Missouri (Claire McCaskill), Montana (Jon Tester), Nebraska (Ben Nelson), and North Dakota (now open). That puts the Rs at 52 seats.

New Mexico (Jeff Bingaman), Ohio (Sherrod Brown), and Virginia (Jim Webb — for now) are also vulnerable, given recent statewide elections. Sweeping this group (more likely than not) would put the Rs at 55 seats.

Michigan (Debbie Stabenow), Pennsylvania (Bob Casey), West Virginia (Joe Manchin), and Wisconsin (Herb Kohl — for now) are other possible pick-ups, depending on circumstance, candidates, etc. Sweeping this group (unlikely) would put the Rs at 59 seats.

My guess is a filibuster-proof majority is out of the question, but an ultimate 55-45 or 56-44 R/D breakdown is likely. Of course, a lot will depend on presidential coattails, so this whole post is probably an exercise in futility — though it never hurts to start strategizing.

steebo77 on January 18, 2011 at 1:34 PM

This list….

Dianne Feinstein of California
Tom Carper of Delaware
Bill Nelson of Florida
Daniel Akaka of Hawaii
Ben Cardin of Maryland
Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
Claire McCaskill of Missouri
Jon Tester of Montana
Ben Nelson of Nebraska
Bob Menendez of New Jersey
Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
Sherrod Brown of Ohio
Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania
Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island
Jim Webb of Virginia
Maria Cantwell of Washington
Joe Manchin of West Virginia
Herb Kohl of Wisconsin

Independent Incumbents Who May Seek Re-Election
Joe Lieberman of Connecticut
Bernie Sanders of Vermont

Bleed_thelizard on January 18, 2011 at 1:36 PM

Now, let’s talk primary targets possibilities.

– Richard Lugar in Indiana (replace with just about anybody).
Olympia Snowe in Maine (too risky, I think).
Scott Brown in Massachusetts (also too risky).
– John Ensign in Nevada (must be primaried if the Rs have any shot of winning).
– Bob Corker in Tennessee (run, Marsha, run!).
– Orrin Hatch in Utah (Jason Chaffetz for the win?).

steebo77 on January 18, 2011 at 1:46 PM

Meanwhile NRO’s John Miller reports on three Republicans that are vulnerable to a primary.
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/256537/mutinies-come-john-j-miller

onlineanalyst on January 18, 2011 at 1:48 PM

Let’s not get hasty, Ed. Who are the “almost certain” pick ups? It’s quite likely we’ll give back MA, so really, we might need 5. Virginia is a good potential pick up. North Dakota. Nebraska. Who else? Possibly Ohio? Maybe Missouri? What about West Virginia?

Democrats scored three very narrow victories in 2006, so these freshmen should be vulnerable in 2012: Webb (VA), McCaskill(MO), and Tester(MT).

Nebraska is another good pickup opportunity, and so is the other Nelson in Florida, if the GOP runs the right candidate, and Jeb Bush should be perfect for the job–he is still extremely popular in Florida. Another possibility is Arkansas, where Blanche Lincoln went down in flames in 2010, while Mark Pryor won UNOPPOSED in 2006, but 3 out of 4 House members are now Republicans. Then there’s the other Dakota, where Tim Johnson (D) could be beaten by a strong Republican candidate without spending too much money.

There is another possibility in Ohio, where Sherrod Brown is far too liberal for such a “purple” swing state. If John Boehner does a good job as Speaker, he or one of the other Ohio Reps might look for a promotion.

These states (ND, VA, MO, MT, FL, AR, SD, OH) add up to 8 reasonably good Senate pickup opportunities for 2012, so that even if Scott Brown loses in MA (Ensign may be a problem in NV as well), it’s still possible to have 53-54 Republicans in the 2013 Senate.

There could even be a possibility in an unlikely place: Connecticut! Former Secretary of State Bysiewicz has announced for the Democrat Senate primary against Lieberman. If she wins the Dem nomination, Lieberman will probably run as an independent (as he did in 2006), and a strong Republican candidate could have a chance in a three-way race.

People win Senate races. Not just parties. That’s why Castle would have won running away and O’Donnell went down in flames.

KingGold on January 18, 2011 at 12:54 PM

Excellent point! Of the “outsider” Senate candidates, only Ron Johnson won in WI, while Sharron Angle (NV), Ken Buck (CO), and Christine O’Donnell (DE) all lost winnable races. Political experience does count, including winning a previous campaign! Rand Paul is the son of a Congressman, and Marco Rubio was the Speaker of the Florida House before running for the Senate, and they both won.

While “outsider” candidates sometimes win House races (where 150,000 votes are usually enough to win), voters of an entire state are often reluctant to elect an unknown for 6 years. Many states have large cities and suburbs whose population dominates the electorate, so that a Senate candidate needs broad appeal in the suburbs and rural areas to overcome deficits in densely-populated urban areas which vote overwhelmingly Democrat.

For Senate races, Republicans need to abandon the “self-financing businessman” type of candidate–they lose far more often than they win. They need candidates with some political experience and either statewide name recognition (Governors, Attorneys General, Treasurers, etc.) or a solid record in the U.S. House or State legislature.

Steve Z on January 18, 2011 at 1:51 PM

– Orrin Hatch in Utah (Jason Chaffetz for the win?).

steebo77 on January 18, 2011 at 1:46 PM

I’m worried a bit about this one, Hatch claimed Cheffetz said he wouldn’t challenge him. So… one of the two is either senile or lying.

scotash on January 18, 2011 at 1:55 PM

Another possibility is Arkansas, where Blanche Lincoln went down in flames in 2010, while Mark Pryor won UNOPPOSED in 2006, but 3 out of 4 House members are now Republicans. Then there’s the other Dakota, where Tim Johnson (D) could be beaten by a strong Republican candidate without spending too much money.

Steve Z on January 18, 2011 at 1:51 PM

Pryor isn’t up for re-election until 2014. Neither is Tim Johnson.

steebo77 on January 18, 2011 at 1:56 PM

I’m worried a bit about this one, Hatch claimed Cheffetz said he wouldn’t challenge him. So… one of the two is either senile or lying.

scotash on January 18, 2011 at 1:55 PM

I think Chaffetz is somewhat reluctant to challenge Hatch because, for whatever reason, Hatch remains fairly popular with his constituents. Time (and a few more squishy votes in the Senate) could change things. If not, Hatch isn’t the worst — Lugar is. Snowe and Brown are pretty bad (especially Snowe), but given the whole New England thing, I’m hesistant to start stirring up hornets’ nests. However, I really would like to see Corker go bye-bye in Tennessee (along with Alexander in 2014).

steebo77 on January 18, 2011 at 2:04 PM

Conrad will retire from the Senate at the relatively young age of 64…

Yes, much better to decompose in public ala Robert Byrd.

nico on January 18, 2011 at 2:26 PM

Conrad will retire from the Senate at the relatively young age of 64

Stocks for diapers (for incontinent congresscritters) down today…

Schadenfreude on January 18, 2011 at 2:29 PM

The stupid masses will re-elect Barry. We must render him powerless.

Knucklehead on January 18, 2011 at 12:44 PM

They will always have the OJ jury (black racists) but that crowd alone cannot elect a president. In 2008 they also had the dipsh*t white guilt bunch and the weak-minded “center” who succumbed to eight years of incessant media Bush bashing. And let’s not forget the worst Republican presidential candidate since Dole. I believe Barry has used up his allotment of white guilt and Bush bashing will be old and busted. They are desperately counting on another weak-as-water Republican to bolster Duh Won’s chances. Why do you think they are pushing so hard for Mitt and Huck?

Extrafishy on January 18, 2011 at 1:33 PM

Bammie had the stupid center (a subset of the center) that simply wanted to pat themselves on the back for voting for someone commonly accepted as black with no consideration of the Bamster’s politics. Let’s hope that having done that, they will move on.

slickwillie2001 on January 18, 2011 at 3:26 PM

Snowe and Brown are pretty bad (especially Snowe), but given the whole New England thing, I’m hesistant to start stirring up hornets’ nests.

steebo77 on January 18, 2011 at 2:04 PM

Let’s change the focus of that statement a bit: “Given the whole New England thing, any Republican there voting with the party even 50% of the time is Great. The alternative is a liberal/socialist Democrat voting with the Republicans 0% of the time. Snowe and Brown vote with the party much more than 50% of the time. Definitely no need to stir the hornets nests with those guys.

JSGreg3 on January 18, 2011 at 3:47 PM

I don’t get it? Conrad certainly votes like a liberal, and if North Dakota is such a red state, how is it, that if he ran to defend his seat, it would be a tough election for anyone challenging him?

capejasmine on January 18, 2011 at 12:46 PM

It’s red socially, deep blue fiscally. They love the farm subsidies.

angryed on January 18, 2011 at 3:51 PM

Lieberman to announce retirement tomorrow?

steebo77 on January 18, 2011 at 3:54 PM

Snowe and Brown vote with the party much more than 50% of the time. Definitely no need to stir the hornets nests with those guys.

JSGreg3 on January 18, 2011 at 3:47 PM

Reall? Let’s look at some recent votes shall we?

DADT Repeal – both Brown and Snowe voted with Obama.
START – both voted with Obama
Banking Nationalization Act of 2010 – both voted with Obama
Extending UI benefits for 99 weeks – you guessed it, both voted with Obama

And of course ObamaCare itself was helped along by Snow voting for it in committee. Had she not done so, who knows? May never have passed.

angryed on January 18, 2011 at 3:54 PM

one down. . . . 21 more to go.

kens on January 18, 2011 at 3:55 PM

Lieberman to announce retirement tomorrow?

steebo77 on January 18, 2011 at 3:54 PM

Ex-Conn. secretary of state seeks Lieberman seat

steebo77 on January 18, 2011 at 4:21 PM

Why not run the Berger guy who won the at large House race for this seat? He won by 10 points, why wouldn’t he also win the Senate race?

karenhasfreedom on January 18, 2011 at 4:52 PM

Conrad will retire from the Senate at the relatively young age of 64

Slightly O/T:

Appreciate the comment, Ed, since my b.d. is tomorrow.

GrannyDee on January 18, 2011 at 5:56 PM

The big surprise here may be that it was Conrad who decided to pull the plug first and not Jim Webb in Virginia, who has hardly bothered to fundraise, or Ben Nelson in Nebraska, who’s certain to be especially targeted by the GOP for his vote in support of ObamaCare.

All those white Democrats running away from the black president. – MSNBC’s Chris Matthews

/s

TN Mom on January 18, 2011 at 7:21 PM

1 down, 52 to go…

Gohawgs on January 18, 2011 at 10:57 PM