Gallup: Obama bounce fizzles

posted at 12:45 pm on December 31, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

After Barack Obama managed to win a few battles (and lose a few as well) in the lame-duck session of Congress, pundits began talking about an Obama comeback after the midterm disaster.  Gallup’s latest weekly poll on presidential job approval throws some cold water on that notion, at least for the time being.  After a slight mid-December bounce to 49%, Obama has slid back to 47%, about what his approval ratings have averaged over the last two months:

President Barack Obama’s job approval rating for Dec. 26-28 is 47%, down slightly from his post-midterm-election peak of 49% recorded last week, and close to his average level of approval since November. Currently, 46% of Americans disapprove of Obama’s job performance. …

The president’s approval rating briefly rose to 49% last week, in Gallup Daily tracking from Dec. 20-22, as Congress wrapped up work on these bills. Obama held a news conference on Wednesday in which he touted the historic nature of the 111th Congress’ achievements, as well as his ability to work with Republicans to overcome gridlock, calling it a “season of progress.”

However, in Gallup polling since Christmas, Obama’s approval rating slid back slightly to 47%, nearly matching his average 46% approval rating since the start of November.

Thus, he is closing out his second year in office with a slightly lower approval rating than at the end of his first year. In 2009, his approval ratings between Christmas and New Year’s ranged from 51% to 53%.

Gallup insists that the “stability” in Obama’s approval ratings are a positive, but then wonders why the popularity of Obama’s lame-duck initiatives didn’t lift his approval ratings.  One reason might be the unpopularity of the lame-duck session itself.  The approval ratings for Congress dropped to an all-time low at the end of the lame-duck session.  While some of the initiatives pushed in the last month might have had plurality support, none but the budget and the tax hikes needed to be addressed by this rump session of the 111th, and in fact Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid ended up addressing only one of those.

Is a 47% rating and “stability” from the level that helped Republicans take control of the House and take a chunk out of Reid’s Senate majority a positive?  It may not be so low as to preclude winning a second term.  Gallup points out that both Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton had lower approval ratings at the end of the second year, and one-termers Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush had higher approval ratings.   Both Clinton and Reagan were in serious trouble at that point in their presidencies.  Clinton, though, won re-election with the help of a significant independent candidate (Ross Perot a second time in 1996) as well as a triangulation strategy that worked, and Reagan rode a massive economic boom to victory in 1984.  Obama has reportedly forbidden the “T” word at the White House, and his insistence on expanding the regulatory burdens on the private sector — especially in the energy sector — makes the generation of an economic boom highly unlikely in the next two years.

Stability at the level of a midterm tidal wave doesn’t seem to be terribly positive, but perhaps that’s the best outcome Obama could get out of his second-year debacle.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Gallup, along with the other Legacy Media / DNC Apparatchik’s always trying to polish the Obama turd. Bring on the gridlock and stop this socialist nightmare!

skanter on December 31, 2010 at 12:50 PM

Even a dead cat can bounce higher than this lame duck — and Obama is a lame duck if he ends up being a one termer.

Terrie on December 31, 2010 at 12:51 PM

Gallup insists that the “stability” in Obama’s approval ratings are a positive,

= msm happy, they can see obama’s re-election from their anchor seats…

cmsinaz on December 31, 2010 at 12:52 PM

Nobody’s fooled anymore, Dems. In a few days, Im going to laugh myself silly watching that big ol’ gavel being pryed out of San Fran Nan’s hands.

kingsjester on December 31, 2010 at 12:52 PM

Vox populi =/= Vox Dei

Akzed on December 31, 2010 at 12:52 PM

and his insistence on expanding the regulatory burdens on the private sector — especially in the energy sector — makes the generation of an economic boom highly unlikely in the next two years.

the double down president….

*shaking the head*

cmsinaz on December 31, 2010 at 12:53 PM

Currently, 46% of Americans disapprove of Obama’s job performance. …

As the old saying goes, “A week is an eternity in politics.” That said, notwithstanding there are 22 months between now and Election Day 2012, it would seem a larger portion of the 46% disapproving are more likely to vote against him than those of the 47% approving who are likely to vote for him.

churchill995 on December 31, 2010 at 12:54 PM

A continuing downward trend for Obama would do this country a lot of good.

coldwarrior on December 31, 2010 at 12:55 PM

This can only mean one thing………

More prime time speeches, more townhall meetings, more campaigning.

That’s the ticket.

Knucklehead on December 31, 2010 at 12:56 PM

it would seem a larger portion of the 46% disapproving are more likely to vote against him than those of the 47% approving who are likely to vote for him.

churchill995 on December 31, 2010 at 12:54 PM

don’t forget, seiu and their ilk will be helping those folks to the polls…the msm will claim it an historic event, the first AA president to be re-elected…

cmsinaz on December 31, 2010 at 12:57 PM

Comeback twit.

Don’t tell the media.

Schadenfreude on December 31, 2010 at 12:57 PM

Knucklehead on December 31, 2010 at 12:56 PM

…all with hand-picked crowds.

kingsjester on December 31, 2010 at 12:57 PM

This can only mean one thing………

More prime time speeches, more townhall meetings, more campaigning.

Knucklehead on December 31, 2010 at 12:56 PM

Who leaked you our plan??????

/sr wh staff

Branch Rickey on December 31, 2010 at 12:58 PM

Im going to laugh myself silly watching that big ol’ gavel being pryed out of San Fran Nan’s hands.

kingsjester on December 31, 2010 at 12:52 PM

Heh, over the witch’s dead body. The media will portray her as having won. It’s all about ObamaCare, for the long haul. The voters are all fools in Obama/Pelosi/Reid minds.

Schadenfreude on December 31, 2010 at 12:59 PM

The best is yet to come…

The truth of Obozo’s mismanagement of the economy and the Republic is just around the corner, sad to say.

The longer gas stays at $3 to 4, watch the ‘recovery’ drop like a frozen turkey tossed from a helicopter.

The GOP/TP will be able slow down the damage, but not halt it.

Obozo’s (and the left’s) policies are coming home to roost.

CPT. Charles on December 31, 2010 at 1:02 PM

Obama’s floundering worse than the MSM will let on.

Will the GOP have the cunning, courage and cojones to pummel him when he’s on the ropes and heading for the canvas?

(My money’s on they don’t.)

Bruno Strozek on December 31, 2010 at 1:03 PM

Dead skunk bounce

mojo on December 31, 2010 at 1:04 PM

How’s that “comeback kid” turning out for you Krauthammer? Maybey we should all leave the room while the adults talk about it?

Mord on December 31, 2010 at 1:06 PM

Who leaked you our plan??????

/sr wh staff

Branch Rickey on December 31, 2010 at 12:58 PM

And according to True_King it’ll all going to be bank-rolled by evil Jews internationalist bankers.
*sorry-couldn’t help myself*

annoyinglittletwerp on December 31, 2010 at 1:06 PM

Is a 47% rating and “stability” from the level that helped Republicans take control of the House and take a chunk out of Reid’s Senate majority a positive? It may not be so low as to preclude winning a second term.

Right now it’s looking like a 2nd term for Barry is contingent upon the voters of Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin not being stupid enough to subject the rest of the country to 4 more years of this nightmare. I think he’s already lost Ohio and Florida, but you can never really count on the folks in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin to vote intelligently.

Doughboy on December 31, 2010 at 1:06 PM

Someone take this poll and shove it right into Charles Krauthammer’s face and then ask him to re-explain that great “bounce-back” B.O. was enjoying!

pilamaye on December 31, 2010 at 1:08 PM

The longer gas stays at $3 to 4, watch the ‘recovery’ drop like a frozen turkey tossed from a helicopter.

The GOP/TP will be able slow down the damage, but not halt it.

Obozo’s (and the left’s) policies are coming home to roost.

CPT. Charles on December 31, 2010 at 1:02 PM

Gas will not go to $5.00 soon but rather closer to $10.00/gal.

Schadenfreude on December 31, 2010 at 1:10 PM

A 47% job approval rating! Who are they polling to get these numbers? It must be taken in the same parallel universe that the unemployment numbers come from. Would I be out of line to guesstimate that the presidents approval number is closer to 40% and perhaps a little lower? I sure the method I used to get this number is just a scientific as the polls method.

Tommy_G on December 31, 2010 at 1:15 PM

And according to True_King it’ll all going to be bank-rolled by evil Jews internationalist bankers.
*sorry-couldn’t help myself*

annoyinglittletwerp on December 31, 2010 at 1:06 PM

You know I keep asking my Jewish husband about this but he just plays dumb. Well you know, I don’t have to explain it to you. *wink, wink*

LOL

Branch Rickey on December 31, 2010 at 1:17 PM

The fact Obama has a “baseline” as high as 45% that doesn’t abandon him even in this environment is scary. What little would it take for the morons to get him to 50%+ in an election?

Conan on December 31, 2010 at 1:17 PM

Gas will not go to $5.00 soon but rather closer to $10.00/gal.

Schadenfreude on December 31, 2010 at 1:10 PM

A little wishful thinking on your part? Do you own some oil futures? There are two thinks that will bring down the price of oil: One less consumption. When oil hit $147 a barrel and experts such as yourself were taking about $200 a barrel. Consumption fell off considerably, causing the price to drop. Two a larger supply. Obama won’t be president for ever and won’t always be able to stifle the use of American resources. At $10 a gallon, I’m peddling the 3 miles to the grocery store and so will a lot of other people.

Tommy_G on December 31, 2010 at 1:22 PM

Branch Rickey on December 31, 2010 at 1:17 PM

When I left the faith ‘they’ took away my sooper-seckrit decoder ring/compass/doorkey….and they changed the password.

What?

annoyinglittletwerp on December 31, 2010 at 1:25 PM

The only way I see a 2012 comeback for Obama is replacing Biden with Hillary. But then Hillary would become the re-election story and I don’t think his ego would let him be overshadowed — and she has as many reasons to decline as accept.

Terrie on December 31, 2010 at 1:26 PM

As the old saying goes, “A week is an eternity in politics.” That said, notwithstanding there are 22 months between now and Election Day 2012, it would seem a larger portion of the 46% disapproving are more likely to vote against him than those of the 47% approving who are likely to vote for him.

churchill995 on December 31, 2010 at 12:54 PM

Especially after two more years of economic misery. That 47% undoubtedly includes a lot of people who’re willing to give Barry the benefit of the doubt after just two years in office, but after four years of the same failed policies not making things better and actually making many things worse, their patience will probably be worn thin.

AZCoyote on December 31, 2010 at 1:27 PM

Who in the hell are these 47%? Oh, that’s right, morons.

echosyst on December 31, 2010 at 1:29 PM

Branch Rickey on December 31, 2010 at 1:17 PM

I just clicked on the link.
ROTFLMBO!

A friend of mine and I used to play ‘vast world Jewish conspiracy’ over the phone when I was in my mid-20′s. Since I sing I usually controlled the entertainment industry. My JEWISH parents thought what we were doing was hilarious. HIS Jewish-by-conversion mother called us neo-Nazis….she also wasn’t thrilled that I taught my then 2 year old to raise his arms and shout BANZAI!
*smirk*

annoyinglittletwerp on December 31, 2010 at 1:31 PM

Obama bounce fizzles,

mmm,sounds similar to a description of an
armour piercing 1000 lb. bomb ripping into
the Yamato,as it bounces and the fuze siz
zles before the Ka-Blewy!

Or,thats the bounce of the iceberg,off the
Hopey Titanic,except for the nasty plates
and hull rippage thingy!(snark).

canopfor on December 31, 2010 at 1:34 PM

This means,that Hopey will tack to the right,and
fake Moderate!!!!!!!!

canopfor on December 31, 2010 at 1:37 PM

echosyst on December 31, 2010 at 1:29 PM

+ One Trillion

Cindy Munford on December 31, 2010 at 1:38 PM

And according to True_King it’ll all going to be bank-rolled by evil Jews internationalist bankers.
*sorry-couldn’t help myself*

annoyinglittletwerp on December 31, 2010 at 1:06 PM

annoyinglittletwerp:Oh ya,the pretending Mexican!:)

canopfor on December 31, 2010 at 1:39 PM

Why would Gallup have to “insist” on anything? Just present your information as you got it.

Bishop on December 31, 2010 at 1:40 PM

annoyinglittletwerp on December 31, 2010 at 1:25 PM

Typical of the Joooooooooooooooooooooos

;)

Branch Rickey on December 31, 2010 at 1:40 PM

but you can never really count on the folks in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin to vote intelligently.
Doughboy on December 31, 2010 at 1:06 PM

Wisconsin? They haven’t even figured out the secret of fire yet.

Bishop on December 31, 2010 at 1:43 PM

Meanwhile,back at the Voter Base Ranch,

December 16, 2010
Obama Approval Slipping Among Liberal DemocratsApproval rating among this group dips below 80% for first time

http://www.gallup.com/poll/145268/Obama-Approval-Slipping-Among-Liberal-Democrats.aspx?utm_source=tagrss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_term=Presidential Job Approva

=========================

80%……must be FreeBasing KoolAid me thinks!

canopfor on December 31, 2010 at 1:52 PM

47% after two years of a non-stop onslaught against everything this country stands for. That is sad.

angryed on December 31, 2010 at 1:52 PM

This means,that Hopey will tack to the right,and
fake Moderate!!!!!!!!

canopfor on December 31, 2010 at 1:37 PM

exactamundo

cmsinaz on December 31, 2010 at 1:55 PM

Right now it’s looking like a 2nd term for Barry is contingent upon the voters of Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin not being stupid enough to subject the rest of the country to 4 more years of this nightmare. I think he’s already lost Ohio and Florida, but you can never really count on the folks in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin to vote intelligently.

Doughboy on December 31, 2010 at 1:06 PM

I agree about Ohio and Florida. But Bush won twice without Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. They’re not must wins.

angryed on December 31, 2010 at 1:58 PM

fake Moderate!!!!!!!!

canopfor on December 31, 2010 at 1:37 PM
======================
exactamundo

cmsinaz on December 31, 2010 at 1:55 PM

cmsinaz:Time for IowaHawks,Great Beltway Adventure!:)
===========================================================
BELTWAY ADVENTURE

WELCOME TO ADVENTURE! WOULD YOU LIKE INSTRUCTIONS?

>YES

YOU ARE SOMEWHERE IN BELTWAY FOREST, WHERE SOME HAVE FOUND TREASURES OF GOLD ALTHOUGH SOME HAVE ENTERED AND NEVER BEEN SEEN AGAIN. MAGIC IS SAID TO WORK IN THE FOREST. I WILL BE YOUR EYES AND HANDS. DIRECT ME WITH SIMPLE COMMANDS.

YOU ARE IN AN OVAL OFFICE. THERE IS SNOW OUTSIDE. YOU ARE BEHIND A DESK. ON DESK THERE IS A BUST OF CHURCHILL.

YOU HAVE A CONGRESS.

YOU HAVE A SENATE.

YOU HAVE A MEDIA.

YOU HAVE A TELEPROMPTER.

YOU HAVE A MILITARY.

YOU HAVE A BIG JET.

YOU HAVE $3 TRILLION OF GOLD.

YOU HAVE 82% APPROVAL HEALTH.

THERE IS 7.2% UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE FOREST.

YOU HAVE A RACE CARD.

YOU HAVE INAUGURAL PARTY LEFTOVERS.

WHAT DO YOU WANT TO DO?
============================

YOU ARE IN AN OVAL OFFICE. YOU HAVE 41% APPROVAL HEALTH. YOU HAVE NO GOLD LEFT. YOU HAVE NO CONGRESS LEFT. YOU HAVE NO MEDIA LEFT. WHAT DO YOU WANT TO DO?

>BLAME BUSH

I’M SORRY, THAT DOESN’T WORK ANYMORE.

>PLAY RACE CARD

I’M SORRY, THAT DOESN’T WORK ANYMORE.

>PLAY GOLF

GOLF COURSE IS CLOSED.

>TURN LEFT

DUDE.

>FAKE TURN RIGHT

ADVENTURER PLEASE, YOU’RE JUST EMBARRASING YOURSELF.

(Partial Copy/Paste do to the length)

http://iowahawk.typepad.com/iowahawk/2010/10/beltway-adventure.html

canopfor on December 31, 2010 at 2:00 PM

The truth of Obozo’s mismanagement of the economy and the Republic is just around the corner, sad to say.

The longer gas stays at $3 to 4, watch the ‘recovery’ drop like a frozen turkey tossed from a helicopter.

Heh. Reminds me of this.

bofh on December 31, 2010 at 2:08 PM

How in the holy hell is this inept tool still above the 30′s?

Oh, that’s right. He’s black.

RedNewEnglander on December 31, 2010 at 2:13 PM

If it wasn’t for Krauthammer, he’d probably be at least 2-3 points lower.

takeamericabackin10 on December 31, 2010 at 2:25 PM

I trust Gallup and Rasmussen far more than the media-sponsored polls and PPP. With sophisticated polling techniques, it’s easier than even to “cook” a poll. And, today polls are used to drive opinion rather than to guage it.

bw222 on December 31, 2010 at 2:27 PM

This president may never dip below 45% approval. As the US first (and hopefully last) a.f.f.i.r.m.a.ti.v.e a.c.t.i.on president, he will always have a 20% base, of which 98% will approve of him. Add in the roughly 20% of the US who call themselves “progressives” and “liberals”, along with 5% squishes who will never say anything bad about the man for fear of being called r.a.c.i.s.t, you have a built in 45% approval base.

AZfederalist on December 31, 2010 at 2:30 PM

If it wasn’t for Krauthammer, he’d probably be at least 2-3 points lower.

takeamericabackin10 on December 31, 2010 at 2:25 PM

You still don’t get it; Obama went to the right schools, which makes him right. Just pay attention to Krathammer: shut up and listen to your betters (anyone whose college tuition was higher than yours).

bw222 on December 31, 2010 at 2:32 PM

It always helps to have an automatic,reliable 95% approval rate with one demographic.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on December 31, 2010 at 2:39 PM

Hildabeast will play coy and wait to be drafted ” by popular demand”.

bayview on December 31, 2010 at 2:40 PM

How much of the 12% black community is also part of the 20% liberal progressive base in this country? I don’t think they are mutually exclusive. Let’s presume that together they comprise 30% of the population (pulling that number out of hat), who are the other 15% who approve of this doofus?

Are those 15% going to VOTE for him again, or just say they like him in a poll so they will be “hip” for saying the first black president is doing a good job? That is the question of the day.

I can’t believe this guy is more popular than Carter, who was HATED at the end of his term for being an incompetent spineless wimp.

I still believe ANY R can beat him in 2012, and that includes Sarah, yes Sarah.

Our economy is going to tank in the next 2 years even if the House manages to crop spending. I just don’t see Doofus being re-elected.

karenhasfreedom on December 31, 2010 at 2:43 PM

Hildabeast will play coy and wait to be drafted ” by popular demand”.

bayview on December 31, 2010 at 2:40 PM

Depends on how things are going. Hillary has three choices, 1) Replace Biden and run as VP, guaranteeing her the 2016 nomination. 2) Primary run against The One (or drafted as you state), or 3) Wait until 2016 and run.

My bet is against 3. It will be 1) or 2) based upon how The One is faring in popularity. She is in it for the long game, she’s not going to hitch her wagon to a losing ticket.

AZfederalist on December 31, 2010 at 2:48 PM

canopfor on December 31, 2010 at 2:00 PM

perfect….

cmsinaz on December 31, 2010 at 2:50 PM

And who in their right mind took this “”poll”" seriously to begin wit??? Hello……..

winston on December 31, 2010 at 2:57 PM

Gallup: Obama bounce fizzles

Bricks do not bounce. Instead, depending on whether contacting the ground or water, bricks will either shatter or sink.

Obama is shattering and sinking.

rukiddingme on December 31, 2010 at 2:58 PM

Where are they finding these 47% morons? He’s not even coming back from the vacation with the family until after the swearing in. Yellow streak a mile wide. Betya Nan doesn’t go, either.

Kissmygrits on December 31, 2010 at 3:05 PM

The myth of a bounce… Most Americans either are invested in this guy and will defend him to the death… hate almost everything about his administration and will call him out on every Marxist power grabbing move he makes… or are no longer paying even the slightest bit of attention to what is going on.
-
The first group I no longer have any use for… Only family menbers in that group get any level of forgiveness at all (mom’s rule… You can’t pick your family).
-
The second group are my brothers and sisters in the fight to dislodge this wanna-be dictator who called us the enemy… We are kindred by our love of America.
-
The third group may wakeup a few at a time and push his numbers lower, but they are never going to give Obama the bounce that we keep hearing about. Is this the 10th bounce yet? Cause after ten we get pizza and the sleeping become immune to everything less than the sound of the ovens being fired up.
-
Also… MSM grumblings do not count as a bounce or as a loss… They are static and background noise at this point.
-

RalphyBoy on December 31, 2010 at 3:33 PM

Tommy_G on December 31, 2010 at 1:22 PM

May you be right, sincerely. Not an investor in this field. Just not optimistic about this bunch. Their hacking is by far not over. They don’t look out for us. Their agenda is everything.

Schadenfreude on December 31, 2010 at 3:57 PM

So this is how the exalted Charles Krauthammer defines a “come back”?

Sharr on December 31, 2010 at 5:13 PM

Fir YOU

So we are left with a liberal establishment that rode its hubris right out of town, a conservative establishment that rode back into town despite itself and a media establishment that was wrong about both directions. This is one story of our year in politics. And the moral matches the moral of our time. The political establishment often does not know best. Neither do the pundits that analyze it. And the smartest guy in the room might just be you.

Schadenfreude on December 31, 2010 at 5:34 PM

I trust B O about as far as I can throw Rosie O’Donnell.

elifino on December 31, 2010 at 5:37 PM

Gas jumped 60 cents in the past 30 days here. Where are the lefties that screamed collusion ? They also complained of Bush’s involvement. Crickets

CWforFreedom on December 31, 2010 at 5:38 PM

Betya Nan doesn’t go, either.

Kissmygrits on December 31, 2010 at 3:05 PM

Doesn’t she hand over the gavel to Boehner? If so, now that I gotta see.

Missy on December 31, 2010 at 6:48 PM

http://iowahawk.typepad.com/iowahawk/2010/10/beltway-adventure.html

canopfor on December 31, 2010 at 2:00 PM

Total unmitigated, unprecedented, and historic . . . genius.

Alana on December 31, 2010 at 7:07 PM

I think the public has him nailed, politically. He’s no longer chaotic, even.

He’ll just attempt to be the image of whatever his inner circle tells him is needed right now.

But it doesn’t last.

AnninCA on December 31, 2010 at 10:14 PM

I think they take these poles at the main stream media to get those high scores. It should be about ten percent.

mixplix on January 1, 2011 at 9:16 PM