New Hampshire 2012: The graveyard of RINOs?

posted at 8:43 pm on December 29, 2010 by Allahpundit

Speculative fun from the Boston Phoenix. All along I’ve been assuming that Iowa would be the de facto social con primary (or rather, caucus) and New Hampshire the de facto centrist primary, with the winners to meet down the road in South Carolina, Nevada, and Florida. But what if New Hampshire’s now a lot redder than we think? What if the Iowa winner rolls into Concord a week or two later with tea partiers ready to rock and blows the centrist frontrunner out of the water? That would all but decide the nomination; it’s hard to imagine any candidate winning the big two early and then fumbling on the way to the end zone.

Is this where Mitt says goodbye?

New Hampshire has just gone through one of the most remarkable political upheavals of its history, completely reshaping the landscape there.

The result, according to political observers in the state, is a power vacuum in the state’s Republican circles, right on the eve of the presidential nomination battle. Or, from the perspective of a Republican presidential wannabe, a slew of total unknowns whose opinion could make or break you…

New Hampshire Tea Partiers, in the afterglow of their 2010 success, are already looking for a conservative, populist candidate, says Andrew Hemingway, chair of the Republican Liberty Caucus, which endorsed more than 100 of the new Republican House members. “There’s already been a shift in attention toward the presidential contest” among those activists, Hemingway says.

The state’s establishment Republicans, on the other hand, will be looking for a more mainstream, electable candidate — one they hope will benefit from the large number of independents expected to vote in the Republican primary, with Obama’s re-nomination a foregone conclusion…

Of course, Pindell, Arlinghaus, and others acknowledge another possibility: that this cycle will reveal that none of New Hampshire’s Republican influencers matter at all. The truth could be that New Hampshire’s Republicans get their news and opinions from distant sources — primarily Fox News, talk radio, and national Web sites like NewsMax and RedState.

In other words, it’s Delaware all over again. Romney, shrewdly, is already trying to woo at least one of the state’s new tea party powerbrokers ahead of 2012. Dave Weigel noted today that he dropped a $5,000 contribution on grassroots fave Ovide Lamontagne three weeks after Lamontagne lost the Senate primary to Kelly Ayotte. Lamontagne was backed by DeMint; Ayotte, of course, was supported by Palin. (Lamontagne himself backed Romney for president in 2007, so there was an element of backscratching to that contribution too.) Obviously, Mitt’s trying to prevent an “establishment vs. grassroots” Castle/O’Donnell dynamic from developing in the state; if that happens and this becomes a test of enthusiasm between centrists and “true conservative” backers of the Iowa winner, he’s in big trouble. In fact, he’s in big trouble regardless since other centrist types like Daniels and Pawlenty will be looking at New Hampshire as do or die for them and will campaign hard there, potentially drawing off key votes from Romney. With the centrists split, a strong “true conservative” candidate like Palin or Pence would stand a fair chance of pulling the upset with the base unified behind them. Exit question: After all the time we’ve spent gaming out the primaries and all the time we’re yet to spend gaming them out even more obsessively, is this race actually going to be over early?


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The state’s establishment Republicans, on the other hand, will be looking for a more mainstream, electable candidate — one they hope will benefit from the large number of independents expected to vote in the Republican primary.

Why replay 2008 it didn’t work. The Republican Party just doesn’t get how Independents think.

Dr Evil on December 29, 2010 at 8:49 PM

Just say no to: RINO Romney and Preacher-man Huck.

Dandapani on December 29, 2010 at 8:50 PM

Just say no to: RINO Romney and Preacher-man Huck.

Dandapani on December 29, 2010 at 8:50 PM

absolutely. no more RINOs

right4life on December 29, 2010 at 8:51 PM

Alternate headline: Those damn grassroot conservatives are going to ruin everything.

chief on December 29, 2010 at 8:53 PM

No RINOs and no Christine O’Donnell’s.

justinx0r on December 29, 2010 at 8:54 PM

No RINOs and no Christine O’Donnell’s.

justinx0r on December 29, 2010 at 8:54 PM

I’d take her in a heartbeat over romney et al…

right4life on December 29, 2010 at 8:55 PM

By 2012, every place will be a RINO graveyard. There are forces at play beyond Romney’s ken and control.

rrpjr on December 29, 2010 at 8:55 PM

After all the time we’ve spent gaming out the primaries and all the time we’re yet to spend gaming them out even more obsessively, is this race actually going to be over early?

Even if it’s “over” by the time SC rolls around, it sure won’t feel “early”.

Hollowpoint on December 29, 2010 at 8:55 PM

Here’s the clue: if Mitt is going against the Tea Party, he is going to lose. The Republican Party is receiving a hostile takeover and by 2012 it will no longer be the party it was in 2008.

ajacksonian on December 29, 2010 at 8:56 PM

First question to ask any candidate running for office…

“Soooooooooooo…

… What exactly do you do for a living?”

Seven Percent Solution on December 29, 2010 at 9:00 PM

Weird, just last night I got that feeling NH would be voting a bit different this coming primary. If Romney loses a state so close to his own, won’t look good.

JetBoy on December 29, 2010 at 9:02 PM

Who wants to start a “how fast will this thread derail”pool?

katy the mean old lady on December 29, 2010 at 9:02 PM

Palin will kick Rom’s ass.

Choo choooooo…derailed.

Bishop on December 29, 2010 at 9:04 PM

Well you people either have to support Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee. Those are the only two legit GOP candidates for 2012.

SoulGlo on December 29, 2010 at 9:06 PM

HEY…!

… Why not just wait until the New York Times and CNN tells us who to vote for?

/

Seven Percent Solution on December 29, 2010 at 9:08 PM

Palin will kick Rom’s ass.

Choo choooooo…derailed.

Bishop on December 29, 2010 at 9:04 PM

You the man!

katy the mean old lady on December 29, 2010 at 9:09 PM

Who wants to start a “how fast will this thread derail”pool?

katy the mean old lady on December 29, 2010 at 9:02 PM

LOL!..You beat me to it..It will not be long I predict..:)

Dire Straits on December 29, 2010 at 9:10 PM

Just say no to: RINO Romney and Preacher-man Huck.

Dandapani on December 29, 2010 at 8:50 PM

And Palin and Gingrich too! :-) Someone new, please.

churchill995 on December 29, 2010 at 9:12 PM

LOL!..You beat me to it..It will not be long I predict..:)

Dire Straits on December 29, 2010 at 9:10 PM

And now we can point to bishop.”He started it.I swear!”

katy the mean old lady on December 29, 2010 at 9:13 PM

And now we can point to bishop.”He started it.I swear!”

katy the mean old lady on December 29, 2010 at 9:13 PM

LOL!..Bishop is a master at starting food fights!..:)

Dire Straits on December 29, 2010 at 9:14 PM

It will be officially derailed when Pavlov Chudi shows up.

Bishop on December 29, 2010 at 9:14 PM

RINOS GO AWAY!!

Big Orange on December 29, 2010 at 9:14 PM

The state’s establishment Republicans, on the other hand, will be looking for a more mainstream, electable candidate — one they hope will benefit from the large number of independents expected to vote in the Republican primary, with Obama’s re-nomination a foregone conclusion…

Wasn’t McCain supposedly “electable” and “mainstream”?

More media types picking the Republican nominee for us. Heck, why even have a primary. Let’s just get Chris Mathews to pick the Republican nominee, because that guy knows electable Republicans when he sees them.

Whomever the media deems an “electable” Republican will be immediately eliminated from my list of acceptable candidates.

Whomever they malign as stupid, unelectable, unintellectual, ultra-conservative, and…doesn’t read radical left-wing books, newspapers, and periodicals, so therefore they must be uninformed idiots, goes on my list of acceptable candidates.

DeathB4Tyranny on December 29, 2010 at 9:15 PM

Just a curious question. We know that the Census will change the Congress and Electoral votes. But shouldnt it also change the delegate votes for the GOP conventions as well ? Some states (Like Texas) should have larger delegations to the conventions than they did in 2008.

Romney will not do well in the South. That is a given. It means Romney’s path lies through the North East and California.

Which explains why Romney bought a house in California. He is going to claim that is where he lives.

William Amos on December 29, 2010 at 9:20 PM

Romney, Daniels & Pawlenty – Grandmother was correct; bad things do always happen in threes.

Branch Rickey on December 29, 2010 at 9:24 PM

In other words, it’s Delaware all over again.

Where AP gets this, I have no idea.
NH isn’t even close to being DE, which is still a decidedly Blue state and was one in 2008.
NH isn’t Blue and is even more Red since the 2010 elections.
One of the reasons Ayotte won–and why Palin backed her–is that she is decidedly pro-Life.
This is all about the Tea Party and traditional conservatives and neither Mitt, Newt nor Huck are conservatives.

Jenfidel on December 29, 2010 at 9:26 PM

What are the chances that libs cross over in NH to choose our candidate?

El_Terrible on December 29, 2010 at 9:28 PM

Palin will kick Rom’s ass.

Choo choooooo…derailed.

Bishop on December 29, 2010 at 9:04 PM

You’re not looking at the big picture. Romney has a much better chance of beating Obama than Palin.

SoulGlo on December 29, 2010 at 9:33 PM

New Hampshire has just gone through one of the most remarkable political upheavals of its history, completely reshaping the landscape there.

This cannot be understated. As a NHite, people thinking that any RINO has a chance here is not reading the new landscape. A staunch conservative was elected speaker of the house, the dem. governor is merely a seat warmer, and after the redistricting, the democrats influence in this state will be further narrowed to the college towns (one of which I am a resident of) of Durham, Keene, and Lebanon.

rslancer14 on December 29, 2010 at 9:35 PM

No RINOs and no Christine O’Donnell’s.

justinx0r on December 29, 2010 at 8:54 PM

I’d take her in a heartbeat over romney et al…

right4life on December 29, 2010 at 8:55 PM

Look, I’m in with the anyone buy Romney or Huckabee bandwagon, but O’Donnell? No way; I’d rather vote for a toad than one of those 3.

besser tot als rot on December 29, 2010 at 9:40 PM

Romney has a much better chance of beating Obama than Palin.

SoulGlo on December 29, 2010 at 9:33 PM

And Romney has a much, much greater chance of governing like Obama than Palin; and a downright non-existent chance of repealing Obamacare.

besser tot als rot on December 29, 2010 at 9:41 PM

You’re not looking at the big picture. Romney has a much better chance of beating Obama than Palin.

SoulGlo on December 29, 2010 at 9:33 PM

Because…why?
Let’s hear your reasoning.

Jenfidel on December 29, 2010 at 9:42 PM

In other words, it’s Delaware all over again.

While I would never vote for Romney or Huckabee, equating them to O’Donnell has to be borderline slander (or libel, as the case may be).

besser tot als rot on December 29, 2010 at 9:43 PM

Romney getting beat by the responsible Tea Party who gave us Rubio=Good

Romney getting beat by the morons who gave us Christine O’Donnell=Bad

Speedwagon82 on December 29, 2010 at 9:43 PM

RINO Romney will have to beat Palin before he takes on Obama. Good luck with that.

SurferDoc on December 29, 2010 at 9:44 PM

Romney has a much better chance of beating Obama than Palin.

SoulGlo on December 29, 2010 at 9:33 PM

Because…why?
Let’s hear your reasoning.

Jenfidel on December 29, 2010 at 9:42 PM

Right, that is another flaw with SoulGlo’s argument.

besser tot als rot on December 29, 2010 at 9:45 PM

This cannot be understated. As a NHite, people thinking that any RINO has a chance here is not reading the new landscape. A staunch conservative was elected speaker of the house, the dem. governor is merely a seat warmer, and after the redistricting, the democrats influence in this state will be further narrowed to the college towns (one of which I am a resident of) of Durham, Keene, and Lebanon.

rslancer14 on December 29, 2010 at 9:35 PM

I think what a lot of you are overlooking, however, is that unlike last cycle only one party is going to be holding primaries of any significance. Barring tragedy or major scandal, it’s a foregone conclusion that Obama is the Dem nominee.

What the means is that in open primary states, independents will no longer have to choose between voting in the Republican or Dem primary- those wishing to partake in the process will vote in the Republican primary by default.

While there might be higher turnout among conservative Republicans, there will also be higher Independent turnout in the Republican primary in open primary states like NH.

Hollowpoint on December 29, 2010 at 9:46 PM

Romney has a much better chance of beating Obama than Palin.

SoulGlo on December 29, 2010 at 9:33 PM

If that’s the case then the nation is doomed…

MeatHeadinCA on December 29, 2010 at 9:46 PM

After all the time we’ve spent gaming out the primaries and all the time we’re yet to spend gaming them out even more obsessively, is this race actually going to be over early?

I feel sorry for you, if that’s true. You won’t know what to do with yourself. ;-)

irishspy on December 29, 2010 at 9:47 PM

rslancer14 on December 29, 2010 at 9:35 PM

Nice post!..That is good news..very good news..:)

Dire Straits on December 29, 2010 at 9:47 PM

Because…why?
Let’s hear your reasoning.

Jenfidel on December 29, 2010 at 9:42 PM

Because any chance is greater than zero chance.

Hollowpoint on December 29, 2010 at 9:47 PM

Because any chance is greater than zero chance.

Hollowpoint on December 29, 2010 at 9:47 PM

That’s not quite the truth of it, is it?
You have an aversion to Palin that’s personal, but it isn’t shared by millions.

Jenfidel on December 29, 2010 at 9:50 PM

Because any chance is greater than zero chance.

Hollowpoint on December 29, 2010 at 9:47 PM

Romney’s chances are > 0 ?

MeatHeadinCA on December 29, 2010 at 9:50 PM

RINO Romney couldn’t beat MCCain.

SurferDoc on December 29, 2010 at 9:51 PM

RINO Romney couldn’t beat MCCain.

SurferDoc on December 29, 2010 at 9:51 PM

He couldn’t even get on the McCain ticket…

MeatHeadinCA on December 29, 2010 at 9:54 PM

NH did a 180 from 2008 to 2010. It could make the full 360 by 2012.

Recall the the GOP was pronounced dead less than 2 years ago by pretty much every “expert”.

It’s impossible to predict what will happen in politics 2 months from now, let alone 2 years from now.

And also recall at one point John McCain was at 1% in the polls for the GOP nomination. Yes, 1%.

angryed on December 29, 2010 at 9:54 PM

That’s not quite the truth of it, is it?
You have an aversion to Palin that’s personal, but it isn’t shared by millions.

Jenfidel on December 29, 2010 at 9:50 PM

I have an aversion to her cult-like, uncritical supporters, but above all else I have an aversion to seeing Obama win another term.

My political views mesh extremely well with Palin’s, and we share a lot of common interests. Given the chance, I’d jump at the chance to spend the weekend hunting or fishing with her and her family.

Objectively though, (i.e. not looking through lenses clouded by blind admiration) she’d be among the worst possible choices among the likely nominees to beat Obama- and beating Obama is the goal.

Hollowpoint on December 29, 2010 at 9:56 PM

You’re not looking at the big picture. Romney has a much better chance of beating Obama than Palin.

SoulGlo on December 29, 2010 at 9:33 PM

Because…why?
Let’s hear your reasoning.

Jenfidel on December 29, 2010 at 9:42 PM

I’ll tell you why anecdotally. My in laws both voted for O-Dummy. They told me they would have voted for Guiliani had he run in 2008 and would vote for Romney in a second if he ran in 2012. But they would never vote for Palin.

angryed on December 29, 2010 at 9:57 PM

MeatHeadinCA on December 29, 2010 at 9:54 PM

Don’t forget you can have “Operation Chaos” against the Republicans in 2012 in the “open primary” states!..:)

Dire Straits on December 29, 2010 at 9:57 PM

Objectively though, (i.e. not looking through lenses clouded by blind admiration) she’d be among the worst possible choices among the likely nominees to beat Obama- and beating Obama is the goal.

Hollowpoint on December 29, 2010 at 9:56 PM

You’re still not giving any objective reasons why she couldn’t and won’t win.
Many, many of us “cult-like, uncritical supporters” think she can.
And that’s not because we’re cult-like or uncritical but because we support her stand on the issues as a conservative and she’s the only potential candidate who’s taken such a stand on the issues.

Jenfidel on December 29, 2010 at 9:59 PM

I’m really weary from all the hype that Iowa and New Hampshire get in Presidential primaries. Why are two little states so important?

SlaveDog on December 29, 2010 at 10:00 PM

Don’t forget you can have “Operation Chaos” against the Republicans in 2012 in the “open primary” states!..:)

Dire Straits on December 29, 2010 at 9:57 PM

My honest question is, who would you expect those voters to vote for, Palin or Romney?

El_Terrible on December 29, 2010 at 10:00 PM

But they would never vote for Palin.

angryed on December 29, 2010 at 9:57 PM

Why not Palin?
And why would they vote for Romney?

Jenfidel on December 29, 2010 at 10:00 PM

So it’s more of the “Anyone who can supposedly beat the demorat” thing again? Well that’s comforting.

Bishop on December 29, 2010 at 10:02 PM

Don’t forget you can have “Operation Chaos” against the Republicans in 2012 in the “open primary” states!..:)

Dire Straits on December 29, 2010 at 9:57 PM

I think the establishment Republicans already have started their own version of Operation Chaos and Guaranteed Failure.

MeatHeadinCA on December 29, 2010 at 10:03 PM

Romney’s chances are > 0 ?

MeatHeadinCA on December 29, 2010 at 9:50 PM

Yes, but it’s going to be a difficult task beating Obama regardless of who we nominate.

Don’t engage in wishful thinking- it takes a lot to beat an incumbent, even a bad one in a poor economy. Namely, it requires a candidate viewed as highly likeable and who can credibly (even if dishonestly) portray themselves as “bipartisan”.

There’s a reason that GW kept pushing the “uniter not divider” line and Obama (falsely) portrayed himself as “post-partisan”. It’s what Independents want to hear, and you don’t win the general election without the support of the squishy middle.

Hollowpoint on December 29, 2010 at 10:04 PM

Why not Palin?
And why would they vote for Romney?

Jenfidel on December 29, 2010 at 10:00 PM

Because they think she’s an idiot and also think Romney is a good manager type. These are non-political people who don’t read blogs and follow the news cycle 24/7. Whether they’re right or wrong that is their perception of the two candidates. And I’m pretty sure they’re not alone.

angryed on December 29, 2010 at 10:04 PM

My honest question is, who would you expect those voters to vote for, Palin or Romney?

El_Terrible on December 29, 2010 at 10:00 PM

Your guess would be good asmine..I don’t think the Dems could organize an “operation chaos” as effective as El Rushbo did..:)

Dire Straits on December 29, 2010 at 10:05 PM

Dire Straits on December 29, 2010 at 10:05 PM

No but the people counting the votes sure could. If the word went out that candidate X needed to win state Y, it could be done.

angryed on December 29, 2010 at 10:06 PM

Any polls out there of New Hampshire voters — especially in the southern part of the state — on how they view their state’s health care situation versus Massachusetts and Commonwealth Care? If the Mass plan’s status is in the toilet with N.H. voters, that doesn’t bode well for Romney 13 months from now.

jon1979 on December 29, 2010 at 10:06 PM

Bishop on December 29, 2010 at 10:02 PM

There is still a goodc hance of “derailment”..Just watch..:)

Dire Straits on December 29, 2010 at 10:06 PM

MeatHeadinCA on December 29, 2010 at 10:03 PM

Maybe?..It is still too early yet..:)

Dire Straits on December 29, 2010 at 10:07 PM

Bishop on December 29, 2010 at 10:02 PM
There is still a good chance of “derailment”..Just watch..:)

Dire Straits on December 29, 2010 at 10:06 PM

Sorry for the typo!..:)

Dire Straits on December 29, 2010 at 10:08 PM

You’re still not giving any objective reasons why she couldn’t and won’t win.
Jenfidel on December 29, 2010 at 9:59 PM

The only objective evidence we have are the multitude of polls (including personal approval ratings) that have been taken on the subject, and they all say the same thing- Palin would lose.

That wouldn’t be so problematic if Palin were still a relative unknown with a lot of people on the fence or otherwise undecided, but that’s definitely not the case.

What evidence do you have that suggests she’d have any chance at all? Note that “I really really like her and want her to win” doesn’t count, though that seems to summarize 90% of the arguments the Palinista crowd have been making.

Hollowpoint on December 29, 2010 at 10:09 PM

It is still too early yet..:)

Dire Straits on December 29, 2010 at 10:07 PM

Dana PeRINO would disagree. :P

No, seriously, I’m sick of the the asinine analysis coming out of the Mainstream Republican Punditry.

I appreciate a lot of what Palin has done and if the elections were tomorrow, I’d vote for her … but I’m not very thrilled by anyone and the way I see things, Romney is a guaranteed lose.

MeatHeadinCA on December 29, 2010 at 10:10 PM

Objectively though, (i.e. not looking through lenses clouded by blind admiration) she’d be among the worst possible choices among the likely nominees to beat Obama- and beating Obama is the goal.

Hollowpoint on December 29, 2010 at 9:56 PM

You don’t believe there is a lick of truth in those damn polls, do you? /

churchill995 on December 29, 2010 at 10:10 PM

MeatHeadinCA on December 29, 2010 at 10:10 PM

No problem with that..I’m still undecided..:)

PS..I like Dana Perino..:)

Dire Straits on December 29, 2010 at 10:14 PM

The only objective evidence we have are the multitude of polls (including personal approval ratings) that have been taken on the subject, and they all say the same thing- Palin would lose.

Many of those same polls have Palin polling way ahead of Romney.

That wouldn’t be so problematic if Palin were still a relative unknown with a lot of people on the fence or otherwise undecided, but that’s definitely not the case.

She’s an unknown as a public, political figure.
She’s only known right now for her portrayal in the MSM as a figure of fun for the Left.

What evidence do you have that suggests she’d have any chance at all? Note that doesn’t count, though that seems to summarize 90% of the arguments the Palinista crowd have been making.

Hollowpoint on December 29, 2010 at 10:09 PM

The evidence I have is that her message resonates with the electorate.
The reason I support her is not because “I really really like her and want her to win,” although that’s true.
I support her because she has the right stand on all the issues and has the right vision for this country, which is in complete contrast to Obama’s.

Jenfidel on December 29, 2010 at 10:15 PM

I have an aversion to her cult-like, uncritical supporters, but above all else I have an aversion to seeing Obama win another term.

My political views mesh extremely well with Palin’s, and we share a lot of common interests… Objectively though, (i.e. not looking through lenses clouded by blind admiration) she’d be among the worst possible choices among the likely nominees to beat Obama- and beating Obama is the goal.

Hollowpoint on December 29, 2010 at 9:56 PM

+1

churchill995 on December 29, 2010 at 10:15 PM

In other words, it’s Delaware all over again. Romney, shrewdly, is already trying to woo at least one of the state’s new tea party powerbrokers ahead of 2012. Dave Weigel noted today that he dropped a $5,000 contribution on grassroots fave Ovide Lamontagne three weeks after Lamontagne lost the Senate primary to Kelly Ayotte.

Why didn’t Mittens endorse and donate to Ovide’s campaign before the primary? This is a pathetic move on Mitt’s part.

takeamericabackin10 on December 29, 2010 at 10:16 PM

In other words, it’s Delaware all over again. Romney, shrewdly, is already trying to woo at least one of the state’s new tea party powerbrokers ahead of 2012.
====================================================
Mitt better hope,this doesn’t backfire,
one could get Tea Bagged!!(sarc).

canopfor on December 29, 2010 at 10:16 PM

I’m probably a concern troll, but honestly, the closer we get to the primaries, the worse my stomach feels about Palin’s chances in the general.

If she’s the nominee, the attack meme is already out there and easy to say, “she’s a quitter.”

How does she defend her resignation in a 30 second commercial that gets her to 50.1% of the vote. “I am not a quitter,” is an awful place to start a campaign.

Run Pence Run!

El_Terrible on December 29, 2010 at 10:16 PM

The Romney Tea Kettle Express!

canopfor on December 29, 2010 at 10:17 PM

She’s an unknown as a public, political figure…

Jenfidel on December 29, 2010 at 10:15 PM

Oh, Good Grief!

churchill995 on December 29, 2010 at 10:18 PM

Run Pence Run!

El_Terrible on December 29, 2010 at 10:16 PM

I’m hoping both Pence and Cain run.

MeatHeadinCA on December 29, 2010 at 10:19 PM

The Romney Tea Kettle Express!

canopfor on December 29, 2010 at 10:17 PM

LOL!..:)

Dire Straits on December 29, 2010 at 10:19 PM

You don’t believe there is a lick of truth in those damn polls, do you? /

churchill995 on December 29, 2010 at 10:10 PM

When multiple polls by multiple pollsters lead to the same conclusion- yes, I do. In any case, they’re all we have to go on.

They’re not to be taken as gospel, especially this early. However, you can’t simply look at “X beats Y by Z%”. Factors like the percentage of undecideds, trends over time and demographics are important when reading them- and they all paint a pretty bleak picture for Palin.

Romney would have a far better chance of beating Obama than Palin; if I were to bet I’d say it’s around 40% as things stand today. I’m pretty freaking far from being in the Romney camp though, as those who were around in 2007 could attest to.

Hollowpoint on December 29, 2010 at 10:19 PM

It will be interesting to watch what Romney’s PAC does for the next couple of months. How much money will continue to flow into New Hampshire? And to whom?

texasconserv on December 29, 2010 at 10:20 PM

A lot of the landscape shift Bernstein talked about was due to the ever-fickle “unenrolled” voter block. They gave the Democrats a chance in ’06 and were stabbed in the back.

Hell hath no fury like a New Hampshire independent scorned.

They voted en masse to send the Democrats packing. Where the Tea Party played a role was getting people off their couches and down to town hall to file candidacy papers.

As an insider now (and loving it) on the NH political scene, I see the two movements/factions within the NH GOP as (a) the old guard, status-quo, don’t-rock-the-boat Republicans and what many are calling the Tea Party Republicans (without offering a definition of what exactly a New Hampshire Tea Party Republican is).

If my numbers are right, there are more Freshman reps in the NH house than there are returning incumbents. Some will try to stick the Tea Party label on us to try to define who we are without realizing that we run the spectrum from libertarian to social conservative.

Even within the “establishment”, one can find folks on either end of the spectrum.

This makes labeling or analyzing party dynamics a near impossible task.

The one common thread uniting the party is that of limited, constitutional, fiscally responsible government.

If a 2012 hopeful fails that simple test, he or she will leave here quite empty-handed.

Bruce MacMahon
NH State Representative
Rockingham County – District 10

Bruce MacMahon on December 29, 2010 at 10:21 PM

texasconserv on December 29, 2010 at 10:20 PM

Very good point!..:)

Dire Straits on December 29, 2010 at 10:22 PM

Hollowpoint on December 29, 2010 at 10:19 PM

A little sarc on my part. You and I see things very similarly here. I like her, as a person, but not as a candidate.

churchill995 on December 29, 2010 at 10:23 PM

Romney would have a far better chance of beating Obama than Palin; if I were to bet I’d say it’s around 40% as things stand today. I’m pretty freaking far from being in the Romney camp though, as those who were around in 2007 could attest to.

Hollowpoint on December 29, 2010 at 10:19 PM

Romney has very little chance of beating 0bama and probably won’t even win the nomination.
The majority of Americans want to repeal ObamaCare (See Rasmussen for the numbers)–Romney doesn’t.
He has zero chance of interesting anyone as long as he continues to say RomneyCare was a success and that all we need to do to fix 0bamaCare will be to “tweak it.”

Jenfidel on December 29, 2010 at 10:23 PM

Exit question: After all the time we’ve spent gaming out the primaries and all the time we’re yet to spend gaming them out even more obsessively, is this race actually going to be over early?
======================

Me thinks,the derailment scene,with Engine 777,in Unstoppable Movie comes to mind!!!(sarc).

canopfor on December 29, 2010 at 10:24 PM

Look, I’m in with the anyone buy Romney or Huckabee bandwagon, but O’Donnell? No way; I’d rather vote for a toad than one of those 3.

besser tot als rot on December 29, 2010 at 9:40 PM

I agree, I like ODonnell but not as a politician. I think she had her one shot but now it’s over…

CCRWM on December 29, 2010 at 10:25 PM

The Romney Tea Kettle Express!

canopfor on December 29, 2010 at 10:17 PM
================
LOL!..:)

Dire Straits on December 29, 2010 at 10:19 PM

Dire Straits:)

canopfor on December 29, 2010 at 10:25 PM

Bruce MacMahon on December 29, 2010 at 10:21 PM

Nice Post..:)

Dire Straits on December 29, 2010 at 10:25 PM

After all the time we’ve spent gaming out the primaries and all the time we’re yet to spend gaming them out even more obsessively, is this race actually going to be over early?

that all depends if Mitt continues to implode.

unseen on December 29, 2010 at 10:25 PM

There is still a goodc hance of “derailment”..Just watch..:)

Dire Straits on December 29, 2010 at 10:06 PM

OK I’ll bite…

Don’t cry for Me, Palinistaaaaas!

JetBoy on December 29, 2010 at 10:25 PM

I agree, I like ODonnell but not as a politician. I think she had her one shot but now it’s over…

CCRWM on December 29, 2010 at 10:25 PM

if she ran against Castle again i would vote for her.

unseen on December 29, 2010 at 10:26 PM

She’s an unknown as a public, political figure…

Sorry, I don’t mean to pick on you, but for crying out loud, she does not lack for exposure, given the 2008 campaign, two books…

churchill995 on December 29, 2010 at 10:26 PM

Cut to the chase,there will be Nooooooooo

Newt,
Romney,
Huckabee,

NEXT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

canopfor on December 29, 2010 at 10:26 PM

Many of those same polls have Palin polling way ahead of Romney.

Name one taken in the past 2 months. Note that online “polls” and the like don’t count for squat. If they did, Ron Paul would be President.

She’s an unknown as a public, political figure.
She’s only known right now for her portrayal in the MSM as a figure of fun for the Left.

That was a joke, right? I’m missing the punchline. Anyone who hasn’t been in a coma or living in a cave for the past 2 years knows her as a public political figure.

The evidence I have is that her message resonates with the electorate.

Except it doesn’t, outside of the conservative base. Otherwise her personal approval ratings wouldn’t be in the toilet.

The reason I support her is not because “I really really like her and want her to win,” although that’s true.

Oh for crying out loud, this is getting too easy.

I support her because she has the right stand on all the issues and has the right vision for this country, which is in complete contrast to Obama’s.

Jenfidel on December 29, 2010 at 10:15 PM

Her “vision” won’t see much play if Obama wins a second term.

Hollowpoint on December 29, 2010 at 10:28 PM

Sorry, I don’t mean to pick on you, but for crying out loud, she does not lack for exposure, given the 2008 campaign, two books…

churchill995 on December 29, 2010 at 10:26 PM

That’s not who PPP is polling, however.
They poll from the Left and from the crowd who hasn’t bought the books, heard the speeches, etc.

Jenfidel on December 29, 2010 at 10:28 PM

JetBoy on December 29, 2010 at 10:25 PM

your post doesn’t even have a shred of reality in it. If you are going to make comparisions at least get the right lady to compare with

unseen on December 29, 2010 at 10:29 PM

So another Miutt post turns into a Palin post. allah is trying to get Mitt exposure and how do we repay him. we ignore Mitt and talk about Palin.

I kind of wanted to talk about how Romneycare is Mitt’s deathwish in NH….

unseen on December 29, 2010 at 10:31 PM

Hollowpoint & Churchill you are both conservative heretics and H8ers!!!!11!!!!1!111!!!!!! I’ll get you and your little dog Toto too
/total sarc

Branch Rickey on December 29, 2010 at 10:33 PM

Is this where Mitt says goodbye?

Oh, please, let it be so!

Open primaries need to be closed.

I support Palin, at this point. I do have doubts that she can overcome the hatchet job the MSM and Hollywood leftists did on her, since most people in this country don’t pay attention to the fact that their world is crumbling down around them. Of course, I have doubts that we can overcome the immoral abyss that we’ve become and turn the country around at all. Regardless, I will do what I can to help Palin overcome her detractors. I will actively/financially support any conservative that wins the nomination. I won’t walk across the street to vote for Romney, Giuliani, any social lib/moderate.

pannw on December 29, 2010 at 10:33 PM

A little sarc on my part. You and I see things very similarly here. I like her, as a person, but not as a candidate.

churchill995 on December 29, 2010 at 10:23 PM

There are many of us that feel as you do.

Thanks.

annoyinglittletwerp on December 29, 2010 at 10:33 PM

unseen on December 29, 2010 at 10:31 PM

You can’t talk about ‘the graveyard of RINOs’ without mentioning who should slay the RINO.

El_Terrible on December 29, 2010 at 10:34 PM

That was a joke, right? I’m missing the punchline. Anyone who hasn’t been in a coma or living in a cave for the past 2 years knows her as a public political figure. Hollowpoint on December 29, 2010 at 10:28 PM

I suggest to you that a good deal of this country has NEVER been given an honest look at her as a serious political figure since she was named as McCain’s running mate.
Journolist, anyone?

Her “vision” won’t see much play if Obama wins a second term.

He won’t get a 2nd term because 0bama has to sell his vision, too, and it’s clear the electorate doesn’t like it.

Jenfidel on December 29, 2010 at 10:34 PM

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