WSJ poll: Obama leads Romney by seven, Palin by 22

posted at 8:20 pm on December 15, 2010 by Allahpundit

It’s a poll of adults, not even of registered voters, and the sample’s probably tilted a bit too far towards Democrats (42/33 if you include leaners), so scale the Republican numbers up by four or five points. An interesting trend for Romney: After seeing his favorables dip just before the midterms, he’s now back to where he was in July 2009. An early indicator that as the ObamaCare debate recedes, some conservatives are turning less chilly towards him?

Note that the fourth and fifth columns, representing negative views, are down fully 10 points in just three months. As for Palin, looks like the Alaska show isn’t making a dent. In fact, for the first time, her combined unfavorables are at 50 percent. I wonder which of her rivals will be the first to suggest that maybe she’s not the best person to demand “electability” from the nominee. (Smart money’s on Huck!)

Overall, The One leads Romney 47/40 and Palin 55/33, which is in line with the spreads from Politico’s new poll too (40/33 versus Romney and 48/33 versus Palin). What makes that doubly depressing is that there are plenty of bad indicators for Obama in this poll, most notably the fact that 63 percent think the country’s headed in the wrong direction — an all-time high since he was sworn in. Maybe it’s a simple matter of skepticism about the GOP that’s leading the public to bitterly cling to The One: In WaPo’s new poll, he retains a small advantage in trust over Republicans even though Clinton and Bush trailed the opposing party by double digits after the 1994 and 2006 wipeouts, respectively.

Here’s a fascinating data point from the Journal poll that I’m not sure how to explain. In theory, the longer he’s in office, the more people should be willing to blame him for the state of the economy. And yet:

He was down to 56 percent a few months ago on the question of whether he inherited the economy and now suddenly he’s back up to 65 percent, almost identical to his numbers in October 2009. I have no theory for why that trend would reverse, unless the dip in September was due to heavy negative advertising by the GOP ahead of the midterms. Even if so, why would the numbers reverse? Why not just stay flat?

That’s not the only good news for him, either. This ought to make tomorrow’s House vote on the tax cuts deal a lead pipe cinch:

Fully 61 percent think it’s a fair deal, and 63 percent of Democrats say they want their political leaders to compromise more generally. And not just Democrats, either:

Even the GOP is split evenly, which makes me wonder if there aren’t more RINOs around these days than we thought. You know who that benefits? I think you do.

Exit question: How to explain this sudden surge in support for compromise? Is it a natural reaction to divided government? Public fatigue from gridlock? Or can we credit this one to a very special someone who knows a thing or two about triangulation?

Update: Conservatives4Palin e-mails to point out that the 22-point margin between Obama and Palin is an outlier compared to other polls. That’s true: PPP’s most recent poll also had them much closer at 51/42, which might be explained (in part) by the fact that that was a poll of voters, not just adults. Her unfavorables here are, however, in line with other polls, virtually all of which put her around or above 50 percent.


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The Founders knew that the beautiful system that they conceived wasn’t foolproof.

But I think they might have seriously misunderestimated the number of fools.

justltl on December 16, 2010 at 7:46 AM

omg (Taiwanese cartoon.)

ProudPalinFan on December 16, 2010 at 7:50 AM

Jesus. How did a poll about the garbage NBC poll devolve into a War Between the States thread?

Just my humble opinion, but as a shrewd politician, I will bet you dimes, dollars, to doughnuts that Palin is a big fan of Lincoln.

As for the poll itself, it’s worse than scrunt. The people at NBC should kill themselves for having published this crap. They should go play in a pit full of zombies.

Any polling that has Sarah losing her butt like this to Obama is obviously not only oversampling Democrats but also using a 2008 turnout model.

Garbage in, garbage out. Oldest scam in the book. I don’t know why Allah even gave this poll a thread. Other than the fact that Allah wants the hit count that only Sarah can give him.

It’s that bad.

victor82 on December 16, 2010 at 7:50 AM

justltl on December 16, 2010 at 7:46 AM

Disagreeing with Gov. Palin’s appropriateness for the Oval office-notice that I ALWAYS call her Gov. Palin-doesn’t make us ‘fools’ or ‘sheep’ or ‘tools of the media’.
There are no kings in the US. We have a right-a DUTY- to question those who might become our leaders and to make rational decisions based on their answers, actions, and electability.

annoyinglittletwerp on December 16, 2010 at 7:53 AM

All these polls are to me pre-campaign stump and pick the GOP candidate the media wants to pick in order for Republicans to lose.

And the way I see it, nobody’s coming back and swing at them (perhaps underground and that’s why the top eschelon is acting the way they are doing right now.)

ProudPalinFan on December 16, 2010 at 8:04 AM

victor82 on December 16, 2010 at 7:50 AM

Worse than scrunt? You think taking a poll solely in the 202 and 212 areas codes is biased? You mustn’t be one the those DC Elites.

CTSherman on December 16, 2010 at 8:24 AM

I don’t believe this! After all he has done?

theaddora on December 16, 2010 at 8:29 AM

2012 is the GOP’s to lose. If we can’t beat an Obama re-election, well, that’s just pitiful. Truly, pitiful. He’s horrible, he’s the worst President, perhaps, ever, his policies and practices are damaging to our nation; if we can’t prevent a re-election by a win, I’m speechless.

Lourdes on December 15, 2010 at 8:37 PM

It is not that hard to imagine, just look how easily Obama snookered the Republicans on the Tax deal. This deal is a huge political win for Obama and quite likely the beginning of his come back.

neuquenguy on December 16, 2010 at 9:01 AM

Just goes to show us, once again, skewed, or not….you can’t fix stupid!!!

capejasmine on December 16, 2010 at 9:29 AM

This is the only poll that has zero ahead by this much; though ppp has zero ahead narrowly in a few toss up states. As Jay Cost stated, the economy might improve somewhat, so it’ll be a 50-50 election. What is it going to take to tilt it toward us? One, we need to nominate the most electable conservative. Two, if we pick a hispanic VP, esp Rubio, I think our ticket will have a lot more momentum behind it. It’s going to be close, which is why the primaries are very important this time.

TimTebowSavesAmerica on December 16, 2010 at 9:39 AM

So if Romney loses to Obama what’s the issue with Palin throwing her hat in the primaries? Either way we end up with someone who loses to Obama and the people who hate Palin will have something to whine about for the next four years.

Every political blog will be able to blame her for the crappy GOP performance – think of the CYAing for the GOP insiders.

katiejane on December 16, 2010 at 9:42 AM

610+ posts.

This “poll” has done its job.

Fallon on December 16, 2010 at 9:46 AM

Hey, WSJ Poll headline look over to the headline on the right side of Hot Air. Obama has a unpopular war on his hands which he tried to paint as the “good war” during the campaign. None of these jokesters doing polling knows what is going to happen almost two years out.

mwbri on December 16, 2010 at 10:04 AM

katiejane on December 16, 2010 at 9:42 AM

I most certainly do not ‘hate’ Gov. Palin. She many strong qualities.
I just think she’s not the best choice for 2012.

annoyinglittletwerp on December 16, 2010 at 10:17 AM

annoyinglittletwerp on December 16, 2010 at 10:17 AM

And I imagine that people might think that whomever you support isn’t the “best” choice. So if we have no “knight in shining armor” who can clearly beat Obama – why all the gnashing at the teeth about Palin running?

I’m perfectly willing to recognize Palin has shortfalls but the never-ending drumbeat implying that the world will end if she even runs, that somehow her competing will snatch a guaranteed win from the GOP, that she lacks all those fine qualities of the a$$wipes who got us into this, have succeeded in making me think her candidacy could be a wake-up call for voters.

People say their conservatives but it looks like they’re falling all over themselves rushing to find the least conservative candidate they can find in order to pander to Independents. BTDT and look what happened. And if by chance the GOP gets some squish elected we will have to endure the wailing and boo-hooing when he turns out to be Dem-lite.

katiejane on December 16, 2010 at 10:33 AM

their = they’re

katiejane on December 16, 2010 at 10:33 AM

This poll is too different from others we’ve seen, but mostly I just think it’s silly season. The reality is that nobody has announced they are running.

It’ll get serious in the summer, I presume.

AnninCA on December 16, 2010 at 10:50 AM

I’m perfectly willing to recognize Palin has shortfalls but the never-ending drumbeat implying that the world will end if she even runs, that somehow her competing will snatch a guaranteed win from the GOP, that she lacks all those fine qualities of the a$$wipes who got us into this, have succeeded in making me think her candidacy could be a wake-up call for voters.

Personally, I think that’s what primaries are for. Provided she’s willing to lose? Then she should toss her hat in.

And she seems to me to be totally competitive and centered. She’ll handle whatever is dished out just fine.

AnninCA on December 16, 2010 at 10:52 AM

The Founders knew that the beautiful system that they conceived wasn’t foolproof.

But I think they might have seriously misunderestimated the number of fools.

justltl on December 16, 2010 at 7:46 AM

+1,000

redwhiteblue on December 16, 2010 at 11:02 AM

Reagan ran. Reagan lost. Reagan ran again. Palin will run. Will she win? Who knows. She has a shot. If she wins, the other candidates weren’t good enough to beat her, meaning they aren’t good enough to beat Obama. If she loses, she gets experience that may help next time. Quit getting all askeered about letting the girl play.

alwaysfiredup on December 16, 2010 at 11:02 AM

Reagan ran. Reagan lost. Reagan ran again. Palin will run. Will she win? Who knows. She has a shot. If she wins, the other candidates weren’t good enough to beat her, meaning they aren’t good enough to beat Obama. If she loses, she gets experience that may help next time. Quit getting all askeered about letting the girl play.

alwaysfiredup on December 16, 2010 at 11:02 AM

Thumbs up! She personally will gain valuable skills running, and we need skilled politicians in this country now more than ever.

Anything that helps.

AnninCA on December 16, 2010 at 11:11 AM

People should stop comparing Palin to Reagan. Just stop already.

It really makes you look like an idiot, and you already look like a big enough idiot believing Palin can get elected POTUS.

Moesart on December 16, 2010 at 11:20 AM

alwaysfiredup on December 16, 2010 at 11:02 AM
AnninCA on December 16, 2010 at 11:11 AM

You two are missing the point. See the people in charge looks at the base either the GOp or the dem base as stupid idiots. Thus they are afraid that that base will do something stupid……they do not believe in the base of either party making the correct choice……the “stop Palin at any cost crowd” shows elitism writ large. They are worried and you see their fear coming thru that yea they might have to be governed by the troggs.

unseen on December 16, 2010 at 11:21 AM

alwaysfiredup on December 16, 2010 at 11:02 AM

Being a huge Palin supporter…..that’s all we want is for her to be able to play…fairly. then whatever happens happens.

Can I also say independants..shmindependants.
I’m personally sick of hearing what they want. Why does a politicain have to bend over backwards to please THEM all the time?
Why can’t those independants take a stand for once and then vote for the appropriate candidate?

Fence sitters….can’t stand them when they’re the candidate, can’t stand them when they’re the voters.

tencole on December 16, 2010 at 11:22 AM

People should stop comparing Palin to Reagan. Just stop already.

Moesart on December 16, 2010 at 11:20 AM

I was comparing her in terms of LOSING. Nothing else. It’s not necessarily a bad thing to lose, s’all I’m saying. No need to get apoplectic because the two words have proximity between periods.

alwaysfiredup on December 16, 2010 at 11:25 AM

No, they didn’t.
I haven’t seen anyone on HA make a persuasive argument against her yet.
And I’ve been here a long time.
Jenfidel on December 16, 2010 at 12:01 AM

I see what you did there.

First you deny that Palin detractors make substantive arguments against her. Then when they do, suddenly it’s “they have not made persuasive arguments against her. That’s rather subjective, but still, keep moving those goal posts.

Just be honest and say you don’t want any criticism of the woman, period.

Vyce on December 16, 2010 at 11:26 AM

Can we please stop with the effing senators as candidates?

The Senate is not a breeding ground for Presidents. At least, it shouldn’t be, and McCain/Obama are prime examples why.

Kensington on December 16, 2010 at 11:52 AM

Fine then AllahPundit. Thanks for the polling data on irrelevant polls.

Let me point out that Palin says she isn’t running and I believe her. I’m glad Mitt polls badly. I wouldn’t vote for him for Dog Catcher. I blame him for encouraging Centerists there is so benefit to HCR that led to the ObamaCare debacle. I suggest you start pulling polling for other potential candidates. I’ll make an assumption that there are quite a few like me that are not interested in voting for the tired old retreads that give us lite-liberalism that has taken our freedoms and destroyed our economy.

Pence/DeMint 2012

Sultry Beauty on December 16, 2010 at 11:59 AM

2012 will be a case of the Right either not screwing things up or of the Right screwing things up. The election is ours to lose. The infighting by way of negatives about this one and that one is part of that “ours to lose” thing: it assists the losing process.

EXACTLY! So don’t make the same mistake that many of you made in 2008 by be whiney cry babies when teh person you wanted to win the primary didn’t win. If Palin, Romney, or Huckabee win, either one will be better then Obama.

DethMetalCookieMonst on December 16, 2010 at 12:01 PM

If Palin, Romney, or Huckabee win, either one will be better then Obama.

DethMetalCookieMonst on December 16, 2010 at 12:01 PM

There. That’s better.

I would never support Huckabee.

Conservative Samizdat on December 16, 2010 at 12:22 PM

High unfavorables do not preclude electoral success. Reagan had astronomical unfavorables in some segments, yet managed to get elected, although he had to infiltrate his own party machine to get past the convention

Neutral unfavorables are the kiss of death in a close election

Palin lucked out because we are in an anti establishment swell and she bucked the establishment to encourage the Tea Party. The GOP uses her because she generates numbers but the GOP establishment despises her

The next election will be rabidly anti establishment because this economy is heading south

Jindal had an opportunity to stand with the rabble, but in the moment of decision, backed off from a showdown with the feds over the oil spill fiasco. All Jindal had to do was stand in front of a boat and declare he was going to defy the feds on cleanup, and he would have rocketed up the anti establishment ladder, but Jindal is not a poker player

However, Jindal has improved from script reader to articulate. Like Palin, he now directs his public interviews as if he is speaking directly to the public. He is also showing more guts, and guts are what the public wants to fight the establishment

Romney is willing to buck the tide, occasionally, and the public is looking for clues of integrity. When Romney said of course, lost manufacturing jobs could come back to the US, he was ridiculed, but Americans do not like to be told they must lay down and die. There are methodical ways to recover at least part of what is lost, especially because a lot of the product being shoveled out in the stores from the global monopoly is outrageously inferior

Of the mainstream candidates, Romney is the one rejected by the club. Romney had been given the most negative press by the pundits of the right, compared to the Neutered Neutrals

No surprise Romney rises above the ‘acceptable’ candidates in polls. No surprise Palin ranks low at this time. No surprise Jindal is still not nationally beloved.

It is funny the club is getting worried enough to start thinking about letting join

entagor on December 16, 2010 at 12:42 PM

sorry, correction:

It is funny the club is getting worried enough to start thinking about letting Romney join

entagor on December 16, 2010 at 12:42 PM

entagor on December 16, 2010 at 12:44 PM

I say let the best man or woman win the Republican nomination….unless you’re Huckabee or Ron Paul.

I hate those two politicians the most.

Conservative Samizdat on December 16, 2010 at 1:12 PM

Christie vs. Obama doesn’t need a poll, because there’s no question Obama would not stand a chance.

DarthBrooks on December 16, 2010 at 3:36 PM

Fat over thin for the win!

BHO Jonestown on December 16, 2010 at 3:43 PM

Let’s recap:

Sarah Palin > Abe Lincoln

Abe Lincoln’s Presidency was a failure.

Slavery wasn’t a big deal; we should have left well enough alone.

gary, unseen and jen are certifiable.

toliver on December 16, 2010 at 3:55 PM

This poll will mean a lot in tomorrow’s Presidential election.

This blog post paid for by Romney for President.

Lothar on December 16, 2010 at 3:56 PM

toliver on December 16, 2010 at 3:55 PM

What else can one say?

Knucklehead on December 16, 2010 at 4:38 PM

I have no reason to believe a poll which would put Obama so many points ahead of Romney or Palin.

Palin has proven herself to be a better, smarter, wiser, more experienced, warmer, more likeable person than Obama, whereas Obama has proven himself to be a snarky, arrogant, condescending, Keystones Kop (Cops) type person who cannot even get it together to wipe his own you-know-what without a posse to manage it for him and even do the work for him.

If ever there was an over rated, underwhelming person I have ever seen in my life it would be the Amateur-in-Chief, thuggee, narcissist king Obama.

Of course there are a lot of idiotic people who are misled by mainstream media and leftist blogs, media, educators, celebrities, etc. Those misguided individuals are easily led around by the nose, and follow like lemmings to the sea (as in the story). They don’t even know how foolish they are, so it is possible that they are “drinking the Kool-Aid” 24/7 and that those are the people who were most contributing to the poll.

Obama for rattle snake wrangler in Arizona, in 2012!

William2006 on December 16, 2010 at 4:46 PM

This poll will mean a lot in tomorrow’s Presidential election.

This blog post paid for by Romney for President.

Lothar on December 16, 2010 at 3:56 PM

Lothar,

Are you the Lothar who danced with the Rainbow Gypsies back in the early 1970s, married to Ricardo Delgado?

William2006 on December 16, 2010 at 4:49 PM

Having perused some of the other posts heree I concur with those who mention Bobby Jindhal and Sarah Palin.

If the two of them “train” in presenting to the public through the mainstream media, and if they both are decisive in their presentation, they can disarm the likes of the dishonest, weak, over rated, studdering, not-in-love with the USA, Internationalist, Islam loving, Keynesian, Socialist, Radical under cover, Barack Hussein Obama.

William2006 on December 16, 2010 at 4:52 PM

“Soetoro 2012″ – Barry can distance himself from himself.

BHO Jonestown on December 16, 2010 at 5:23 PM

This is early good news. Romney couldn’t buy a primary the last time. No reason to believe he is any different now. Romneycare in Mass. ought to turn most voters off.

kens on December 17, 2010 at 12:41 PM

hahaha

this from the polling outfit that had dumocrats up 44-41 in the generic ballot right before the midterms last month

so the marxist “polls” 55% nationally in this poll when he’s at 35% in ohio. oh, thats rich. and fox has him now at 40%. and he beats palin? lol. too funny

she just does a interview with robin roberts on nbc the day fater this nbc poll – oh how convenient

check the internals – im sure its blatanly rigged

palin is going to kick the crap out of this jackass

sidewinder22 on December 17, 2010 at 7:01 PM

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