PPP poll: Romney voters a risk to switch to Obama if he loses nomination?

posted at 8:26 pm on November 30, 2010 by Allahpundit

I could have gone two ways with the headline here. One was to note that Palin’s now leading the field, albeit narrowly — 21 percent to Gingrich’s 19, Romney’s 18, and Huckabee’s 16. The other was to note that those darned RINOs in Mitt’s base just might be ready to bolt, Delaware-style, if their man’s not the pick in 2012.

I went with my gut that you guys might just be in the mood for an ol’ fashioned RINO stomp.

-Huckabee voters give Palin a 64/27 favorability, Gingrich a 53/23 one, and Romney a 59/26 one. That makes the net favorability for the other candidates an average +33.

-Palin voters give Huckabee a 52/19 favorability, Gingrich a 42/38 one, and Romney a 40/35 one. That makes the net favorability for the other candidates an average +14…

-Romney voters give Huckabee a 46/25 favorability, Palin a 46/36 one, and Gingrich a 41/42 one. That makes the net favorability for the other candidates an average +10.

The Gingrich and Huckabee voters are going to be fine if someone else gets nominated. They’re pretty happy with all the other candidates. The Romney folks perhaps are a greater concern for Republicans because some of them might actually vote for Obama if a Gingrich or Palin gets nominated. The Palin folks aren’t all that big on the other candidates either- the chances of them voting for Obama seem quite slim but might they sit home or throw some of their votes to a conservative third party candidate if Romney wins the nomination?

Yeah, that’s an interesting parallel in Romney fans and Palin fans, although for completely different reasons. Mitt’s probably cleaning up among Republican centrists who might otherwise consider voting for a strong Democrat. (Let’s call them “Kathleen Parker conservatives.”) Palin, on the other hand, commands a bunch of conservatives who would never vote Democrat and whose devotion to her might lead some to stay home if she’s not the pick. Although, contrary to the endless invective aimed at Huckabee among the Hot Air commentariat, Huck does darned well among her supporters. Consider that proof that social conservatism is more important to her base than some of us might have thought. In fact, Huckabee scores the highest favorable rating among Palin’s, Romney’s, and Gingrich’s supporters (aside from Palin, Romney, and Gingrich themselves, respectively). I wonder if that’s inducement enough to get him to consider running. If any one of them bows out early or chooses not to run at all, he’s primed to pick up a bunch of their supporters and, with them, a whole lot of momentum. (Although do note: Romney supporters marginally prefer Palin to Huckabee as a second choice, possibly because Mitt’s Mormon base skews conservative.) Are you ready for Huckabee/Christie 2012?

On the other hand, if Huck doesn’t run, Palin’s the big winner. She takes 34 percent of his supporters as a second choice compared to just 19 percent for Gingrich and 17 percent for Romney. That’s a considerable spread, to the point where I wonder if there aren’t some establishment anti-Palin Republicans out there suddenly getting very nervous at the thought that Huck might not run and that social conservatives will unite behind Palin. They’re going to need a stalking horse to bleed some of those votes away from her. But who, if not Huck? Santorum? C’mon.


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Silly me, thinking a brilliant young conservative governor would be anything other than another RINO against Palin. Guy is wasting time governing when he should be posting on Facebook.

Chazz on November 30, 2010 at 10:55 PM

Jindal’s brilliant and has a bright future. But if now were his time he wouldn’t need you to be singing his praises in attempts to diminish Palin.

ddrintn on November 30, 2010 at 11:04 PM

If you generally like a lot of things about her and so do others, many others by the look of it. Why is she not electable?

bluemarlin on November 30, 2010 at 11:02 PM

Because that’s the Establishment line.

ddrintn on November 30, 2010 at 11:06 PM

Dark Horse, please.

AshleyTKing on November 30, 2010 at 10:55 PM

Yes, yes, please.

anXdem on November 30, 2010 at 11:06 PM

Fine don’t for Romney in the general election (if he wins the primary). I just hope you are happy with four more years of Obama.

terryannonline on November 30, 2010 at 11:03 PM

A Romney win in the primary means an Obama win in the general.

sharrukin on November 30, 2010 at 11:06 PM

A Romney win in the primary means an Obama win in the general.

sharrukin on November 30, 2010 at 11:06 PM

Why? Is it because Palin fans won’t vote for him if he’s the nominee?

anXdem on November 30, 2010 at 11:09 PM

Why? Is it because Palin fans won’t vote for him if he’s the nominee?

anXdem on November 30, 2010 at 11:09 PM

Only partially. Mostly because he has RomneyCare and is very vulnerable to being painted as the GOP counterpart to Mr Flip-flop John Kerry, the Prince of Nuance.

He has taken at least two positions on every issue and sometimes three.

That doesn’t even include the personal attacks on his wealth, arrogance and religion that the leftists will launch once they have secured his nomination.

sharrukin on November 30, 2010 at 11:12 PM

Yeah, that’s about the size of it. Romney is a Liberal. Trouble is, to Libs he’s the quintessential EVIL Republican.

You can almost laugh at how the Libs just don’t get it. If they lived in reality, they would LOVE old Flippy Romney.

What a sad lot. Sorry, the only one I see worthy is SP…and we know how the Liberals feel about her.

Wish Huckaphoney would go away!!!

Gob on November 30, 2010 at 11:13 PM

Why is she not electable? What will it come down to in the end for people, the person that you most agree with right?

bluemarlin on November 30, 2010 at 11:02 PM

For the most part, people agreed with Christine O’Donnell on the issues, but she didn’t win the election.

In the end, it often comes down to who people feel will be the best leader. A potential leader who shares their values is a huge factor, but his or her perceived ability to lead is often what compels voters to pull the lever.

anXdem on November 30, 2010 at 11:16 PM

Buy Danish on November 30, 2010 at 10:58 PM

Again Palin supporters have gotten the same in fact they have gotten worse. Including wacked out pictures making he rlook like an insane nutcase. Misleading headlines, skewed poll results, skewed interpretations of polls etc. How many headlines blaring that Palin can’t win the general, about Palin’s negatives being higher than Mitt’s or Huck with no mention its do to the fact that Palin has had negative media coverage for 2 years and Mitt nor Huck have faced none. In fact this is the wors emedia coverage I can remember IRT to Mitt in months. Welcome to the party.

Oh and btw…..If anything I am upset because Once again Allah chooses not to highlight the fact that the polls shows Palin is pulling ahead and Mitt and huck are fading. Or in other owrds the STOP PALIN gameplan is not working. Which explains Joe’s melt down today.

unseen on November 30, 2010 at 11:18 PM

Tells you everything you need to know about Romney “Republicans”, eh?

Every bit as comfortable with Obama as their own man Willard…

SuperCool on November 30, 2010 at 11:18 PM

Why? Is it because Palin fans won’t vote for him if he’s the nominee?

anXdem on November 30, 2010 at 11:09 PM

no its becaus eMitt will not fight Obama. Mitt takes too many issues off the table. Obamacare, raisng taxes, guns, abortion, military service, etc etc and he brings class warfare to the table as the dems attack his money.

that has always been the problems with RINO by being dem lite they can not attack and seperate themselves form the liberal and thus they have to run a popularity contest and mitt doesn’t have the charisma to beat Obama in that contest.

unseen on November 30, 2010 at 11:22 PM

DEMINT/PALIN/REAGAN/PALIN/DEMINT 2012!

Sorry guys. No Romney in the above.

2009-2010 issues and results of Nov 2 have already made me decided.

If not Demint …. it’s PALIN for me!

Dark horse? Where is that dark horse in the 2009-2010 WAR AGAINST SOCIALIST AND STATIST OBAMA!

No WORK … no VOTE REWARD to any politician for me.

TheAlamos on November 30, 2010 at 11:23 PM

Only partially. Mostly because he has RomneyCare and is very vulnerable to being painted as the GOP counterpart to Mr Flip-flop John Kerry, the Prince of Nuance.

He has taken at least two positions on every issue and sometimes three.

That doesn’t even include the personal attacks on his wealth, arrogance and religion that the leftists will launch once they have secured his nomination.

sharrukin on November 30, 2010 at 11:12 PM

I feel exactly the same way you do about Romney, for the most part. I’m not a fan of his work in Mass. I do appreciate his love of business (although I stop short at perceiving his corporate achievements as acumen). Still, if faced with the choice of Barry or Romney, I’d vote for Mittens.

anXdem on November 30, 2010 at 11:23 PM

If Mitt runs, then Sarah will win the nomination. If he steps aside (because we are past the time when the last loser is next in line) then maybe a real conservative, who doesn’t have the unfair uphill climb that my beloved Sarah has in a general election, can have a chance to win. No other real conservative has the clout to go against Mitt. (Huckabee is not the answer, nor is he the best conservative pick.)

If Romney stepped aside and a good second tier true conservative ran and got backing, I think Sarah would support that person.

Like Barbour or Jindal.

But Romney is too selfish and phoney and power hungry to step aside. He is a dinosaur. Business sense does not always translate into politics. And He hasn’t make the best decisions in the past.

And how can our standard bearer criticize Obamacare when he is the father of Romneycare that has been a disaster in Massachusetts?

Elisa on November 30, 2010 at 11:24 PM

A Romney win in the primary means an Obama win in the general.

sharrukin on November 30, 2010 at 11:06 PM

If someone can’t beat Romney or whoever wins (like I said I’m neutral) in the primary, what makes you think they can beat Obama? If they can’t beat Mitt Romney…they sure as heck cant’ beat Obama.

terryannonline on November 30, 2010 at 11:25 PM

Actually, this poll indicates that Palin is the second choice of both Romney and Huckabee supporters. A pretty good position to be in.

And forget about any “dark horse” candidate. Pawlenty just got Huckabee’d
Thune and Daniels are within the margin of error of getting 0% in every poll so far this year.

At this point I’d say Palin’s chances of winning the nomination is better than even.

Btw, Palin’s TLC ratings skyrocketed up this weekend, a massive +47% among viewers aged 18-49. I wonder if Allah will make a thread about that since he seemed so eager to report her “collapse” last weekend…LOL

Norwegian on November 30, 2010 at 11:26 PM

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/blogs/live-feed/surprise-sarah-palins-ratings-rise-54830

unseen on November 30, 2010 at 10:25 PM

Thanks!!

So true she was Reagan when reagan wasn’t cool.

unseen on November 30, 2010 at 10:26 PM

Indeed!

gary4205 on November 30, 2010 at 11:26 PM

Point Blank: I trust my fellow Republicans. If Mitt wins I believe it will be because he ran the better campaign. If Sarah wins I believe it will be because she ran a better campaign. I’m not going to tell anyone who to vote for. If you like Sarah, vote for Sarah. If you like Mitt, vote for Mitt.

terryannonline on November 30, 2010 at 11:31 PM

If someone can’t beat Romney or whoever wins (like I said I’m neutral) in the primary, what makes you think they can beat Obama? If they can’t beat Mitt Romney…they sure as heck cant’ beat Obama.

terryannonline on November 30, 2010 at 11:25 PM

I suspect that would be true, but it doesn’t change the fact that he will not win. I think Obama is going to win and I think Palin is the only one who has any chance at all. I don’t think she will win the nomination, but I suppose its possible.

sharrukin on November 30, 2010 at 11:31 PM

I think Obama is going to win and I think Palin is the only one who has any chance at all. I don’t think she will win the nomination, but I suppose its possible.

sharrukin on November 30, 2010 at 11:31 PM

Well if you think Sarah is the one with the best shot to beat Obama….make your case and vote for her in the primary.

terryannonline on November 30, 2010 at 11:35 PM

terryannonline on November 30, 2010 at 11:31 PM

He will have some explaining to do in the general.

I respect and will fully protect a woman’s right to choose.

I am prolife. I believe that abortion is the wrong choice except in cases of incest, rape, and to save the life of the mother.

“I would have supported the original assault weapon ban,” Romney said. “I signed an assault weapon ban as Massachusetts governor…”

“Deadly assault weapons have no place in Massachusetts,”

“Yeah, I don’t support any gun control legislation, the effort for a new assault weapons ban, with a ban on semi-automatic weapons, is something I would oppose.”

The minimum wage is important to our economy and Mitt Romney supports minimum wage increase, at least in line with inflation.”
- Romney 2002 campaign website

Governor Mitt Romney yesterday rejected the Legislature’s plan to raise the state minimum wage to $8 an hour over two years, angering Democratic lawmakers and advocates who accused him of abandoning a 2002 campaign pledge to significantly boost the pay of low-wage workers.
- Boston Globe, July 22, 2006

Romney also said in the interview that it was not “practical or economic for the country” to deport the estimated 12 million immigrants living in the US illegally. “These people contribute in many cases to our economy and to our society,” he said. “In some cases, they do not. But that’s a whole group we’re going to have to determine how to deal with.”
- Boston Globe, March 16, 2007

In his appeals to conservative voters, Romney has made the Arizona senator’s work on immigration one of his favorite targets. When McCain and other senators unveiled the latest reform bill two weeks ago, Romney called it the “wrong approach” and immediately launched a television ad slamming “amnesty” for illegal immigrants.
- Boston Globe, June 1, 2007

MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough: “Do you support a national constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage?”
Governor Romney: “Boy, I sure do. You know, that’s a topic that’s really, I think, very important to the country because marriage is not just about adults.

In 2002, before the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court declared same-sex marriage protected by the Constitution, Romney denounced as “too extreme” the effort by pro-family groups to enact a preemptive state Marriage Protection Amendment prohibiting homosexual marriage, civil unions and same-sex public employee benefits.
- Boston Phoenix, May 14-20, 2004

I am not sure Romney even remembers what he believes.

sharrukin on November 30, 2010 at 11:36 PM

If they can’t beat Mitt Romney…they sure as heck cant’ beat Obama.

terryannonline on November 30, 2010 at 11:25 PM

that depends if the house is not stacked against that person.

unseen on November 30, 2010 at 11:37 PM

I am not sure Romney even remembers what he believes.

sharrukin on November 30, 2010 at 11:36 PM

I think Romney will be a flawed candidate but let’s be honest here so will Sarah.

terryannonline on November 30, 2010 at 11:37 PM

that depends if the house is not stacked against that person.

unseen on November 30, 2010 at 11:37 PM

Everyone has obstacles to overcome but it’s a candidates job to make it to the finish line.

terryannonline on November 30, 2010 at 11:39 PM

I think Romney will be a flawed candidate but let’s be honest here so will Sarah.

terryannonline on November 30, 2010 at 11:37 PM

Yeah but all of Romney’s flaws are REAL.

Sarah’s “flaws” are all made up by the media.

Big difference.

Let’s face it, Romney was one of the worst governors in the country. Sucked at it.

Sarah Palin was one of the best, and had approval ratings over 90%.

Sarah Palin=success
Romney=the very definition of failure.

gary4205 on November 30, 2010 at 11:43 PM

I think Romney will be a flawed candidate but let’s be honest here so will Sarah.

terryannonline on November 30, 2010 at 11:37 PM

A flawed candidate? Are you serious?

He is a chameleon who will be, or say anything to attain power. He gutted out when faced with McCain in the debates and McCain was no fighter himself.

I guess General Custer had a flawed plan as well and in that context you may have a point.

sharrukin on November 30, 2010 at 11:44 PM

And forget about any “dark horse” candidate. Pawlenty just got Huckabee’d
Thune and Daniels are within the margin of error of getting 0% in every poll so far this year.

Norwegian on November 30, 2010 at 11:26 PM

That’s gonna leave a mark!

Daniels is an idiot and Thune just voted yes on the Nazi food bill. He’ll be lucky if he still has a job next go-round.

gary4205 on November 30, 2010 at 11:46 PM

Is there no hope for this country? Can this country do no better than Romney or Obama?

SERIOUSLY?!?!?

the election is still two long years away and a LOT can happen. I had barely heard of Obama in 2004 or 2006. Hopefully a star Republican will come out of the closet and bring some common sense conservatism to the White House. A conservative House and Senate is NOT enough IMO for 2012.

Yakko77 on November 30, 2010 at 11:46 PM

A flawed candidate? Are you serious?

He is a chameleon who will be, or say anything to attain power. He gutted out when faced with McCain in the debates and McCain was no fighter himself.

I guess General Custer had a flawed plan as well and in that context you may have a point.

sharrukin on November 30, 2010 at 11:44 PM

Yeah, but he makes a great cucumber and mayonnaise sandwich!

gary4205 on November 30, 2010 at 11:48 PM

Yeah, but he makes a great cucumber and mayonnaise sandwich!

gary4205 on November 30, 2010 at 11:48 PM

Is that the big attraction? He doesn’t embarrass them with their liberal friends?

sharrukin on November 30, 2010 at 11:50 PM

For the most part, people agreed with Christine O’Donnell on the issues, but she didn’t win the election.

In the end, it often comes down to who people feel will be the best leader. A potential leader who shares their values is a huge factor, but his or her perceived ability to lead is often what compels voters to pull the lever.

anXdem on November 30, 2010 at 11:16 PM

You are talking a State election and not a national election, the dynamics are quite different. The GOP never really counts on DE to go Red, far as I know. I do believe though that you are still talking the MSM and party Elite meme. My wife absolutely did not like Palin and has come around on her own. I have several friends that live in NY and CT and have really warmed up to her. The reason, they have paid more attention to what she has been writing and saying and the big kicker, she is the only who is actualy showing leadership against the Democrats and Obama!

bluemarlin on November 30, 2010 at 11:53 PM

I am not sure Romney even remembers what he believes.

sharrukin on November 30, 2010 at 11:36 PM

But I’m sure.

ROMNEY BELIEVES HE WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT.

He just doesn’t know what kind of governance he’ll be using … pro-socialism or pro-free market principles.

These RINOs like those currently seating OLD REPUBLICANS in the Senate are the most dangerous people to the cause of conservatism in America. Even at the lame-duck sessions, these Republicans are doing great disservice to the people: Food Police bill and Anti-Earmark Ban bill.

People must be reminded that these kind of R politicians are not conservative.

TheAlamos on November 30, 2010 at 11:54 PM

People must be reminded that these kind of R politicians are not conservative.

TheAlamos on November 30, 2010 at 11:54 PM

Thats it exactly. They are just power junkies and will ride any bandwagon to get it.

sharrukin on November 30, 2010 at 11:58 PM

Against Huck, I’d not only vote for Obama, I’d campaign for him.

VerbumSap on December 1, 2010 at 12:01 AM

All the quitters fans are in here talking how other candidates are flawed. What a riot!

PrezHussein on December 1, 2010 at 12:02 AM

All the quitters fans are in here talking how other candidates are flawed. What a riot!

PrezHussein on December 1, 2010 at 12:02 AM

Well it is time to redistribute the criticism, isn`t that what you believe in, reditribution, equality , and fairness?

bluemarlin on December 1, 2010 at 12:05 AM

All the quitters fans are in here talking how other candidates are flawed. What a riot!

PrezHussein on December 1, 2010 at 12:02 AM

Just to level the playing field, don’t cha thunk?

Enjoy the show.

TheAlamos on December 1, 2010 at 12:10 AM

All the quitters fans are in here talking how other candidates are flawed. What a riot!

PrezHussein on December 1, 2010 at 12:02 AM

Here’s a MOST RECENT one for Tim Pawlenty’s stupidity.

Suspect in sex assault case won pardon in 2008

Cleared by a panel that included Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Jeremy Giefer is now accused of assaulting a second girl hundreds of times before and after he received his pardon.

http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/111013529.html?page=1&c=y

As I said … ENJOY THE SHOW.

TheAlamos on December 1, 2010 at 12:14 AM

That explains why Reagan lost every time he ran, and Bush 41 was a two-term president.

Oh, wait.

tom on November 30, 2010 at 10:39 PM

All this does is further prove my point. Reagan made a concerted effort to win over the moderate wing of the party. He reached out to Ford in 1976, campaigned for even moderate Republicans in intervening years, and accepted Bush as his VP in 1980/84. Bush 41 made no real effort to reach out to the conservative base.

Palin and her cultists (to be fair, it is mostly her cultists) are actively trying to drive moderate Republicans out of the party.

AngusMc on December 1, 2010 at 12:18 AM

Dark horse = Herman Cain

parteagirl on December 1, 2010 at 12:20 AM

I do believe though that you are still talking the MSM and party Elite meme.

bluemarlin on November 30, 2010 at 11:53 PM

Nope. It’s my little meme, pedestrian as it may seem to you, blue.

anXdem on December 1, 2010 at 12:27 AM

Nope. It’s my little meme, pedestrian as it may seem to you, blue.

anXdem on December 1, 2010 at 12:27 AM

Fair enough.

bluemarlin on December 1, 2010 at 12:33 AM

Palin and her cultists (to be fair, it is mostly her cultists) are actively trying to drive moderate Republicans out of the party.

AngusMc on December 1, 2010 at 12:18 AM

So, I take it you haven’t ventured over to the QOTD yet, huh? It’s all ablaze with her supporters. There are a few brave quipsters on that thread who are railing against the “cult.”

anXdem on December 1, 2010 at 12:34 AM

Is that the big attraction? He doesn’t embarrass them with their liberal friends?

sharrukin on November 30, 2010 at 11:50 PM

He’s one of em!

gary4205 on December 1, 2010 at 12:35 AM

So wait — you mean it isn’t just the Palinistas who could guarantee Obama a second term? You mean the RINOs could bolt as well?

You know, I wish they would just poll the question. I’m sure the results would be highly illuminating and I’m fairly confident it isn’t the Palinistas who will come out of it looking like sore losers.

Although, contrary to the endless invective aimed at Huckabee among the Hot Air commentariat, Huck does darned well among her supporters. Consider that proof that social conservatism is more important to her base than some of us might have thought.

I wouldn’t argue that social conservatism isn’t important to her base but I would argue she gets a greater share of the libertarian-leaning fiscal cons than she sometimes gets credit for. The fact that she is so well-loved here and that the commentariat tends to be libertarian-leaning for the most part ought to serve as anecdotal evidence of that.

This is why I believe she is severely underestimated. Name another candidate in this bunch who appeals to social cons AND fiscal cons? The last person who was able to do that had the initials RWR.

NoLeftTurn on December 1, 2010 at 12:37 AM

Dark horse = Herman Cain

parteagirl on December 1, 2010 at 12:20 AM

That’s racist!!!!!

gary4205 on December 1, 2010 at 12:37 AM

A lot of you people don’t know what you’re talking about.

Romney is not liberal. He’d lose his funding and support base if he even tried to be.

I get tired of even looking at these types of articles because of the same old knee jerk comments from HA readers

scotash on December 1, 2010 at 12:54 AM

I very much doubt Romney voters would switch to vote for Barry. The most they will do is to sit home. But that may still result in a Barry re-election, which will be disastrous for the country.

bayview on December 1, 2010 at 12:57 AM

Voted for Romney in the last NH pres primary–he lost to McCain. Would I vote for him again–depends on the opposition. Not terribly enthusiastic about him anymore. Do not think he can beat Obama among other reasons. Might be kind of nice if he, Huck and Sarah would voluntarily and definitely decide not to run. Then we might be able to get someone that most of us can agree upon. Those three all have their good qualities but all they’d succeed in doing I suspect is splitting the vote and keeping O in office.

jeanie on December 1, 2010 at 1:08 AM

(Let’s call them “Kathleen Parker conservatives.”)

Might as well call them “heffalumps” or “woozles,” as those are no more real than “Kathleen Parker conservatives” are.

Kent18 on December 1, 2010 at 1:10 AM

Chances are Romney voters went for Obama the last time….some people in Mass., not really Republican like him.
I won’t vote for Romney….remember Romneycare??
Neither will any real Republican. He just has that air of fakeness that all RINOS have.
Liberals like Allahpundit want Romney, cus of his stance of gays and that they know that Obama is likely to win when their isn’t much difference between him and his opponent.

LeeSeneca on December 1, 2010 at 1:12 AM

I get tired of even looking at these types of articles because of the same old knee jerk comments from HA readers

scotash on December 1, 2010 at 12:54 AM

I guess three choices are available, don`t read them, go to a different blog, or both of the above. Plenty of people here don`t like Romney and that is not a new phenomenon!

bluemarlin on December 1, 2010 at 1:28 AM

Don’t think either Huck or Romney stands a chance but for some reason they seem convinced that they do. Unless O messes up so so badly that he’s toast, neither can beat him. Of the three, Sarah might have an outside chance if all the planets were aligned and it was her lucky year. Do think that she, of the 3 of them, is the most realistic about her chances and the temperament of the voters.Huck and R. refuse to process the message that their chances against Obama are slim to none–Sarah does have a grasp on the odds. We need some conservative knight in shining armor to ride in and save the day? who?

jeanie on December 1, 2010 at 1:28 AM

In the end, it often comes down to who people feel will be the best leader. A potential leader who shares their values is a huge factor, but his or her perceived ability to lead is often what compels voters to pull the lever.

anXdem on November 30, 2010 at 11:16 PM

So, you are saying that, given the choice between Candidate A, who wants to lead me to safety, and Candidate B, who wants to lead me over a cliff, I will choose to follow Candidate B if I believe he will lead with more ability, regardless of the destination he has in mind for me? I must be stupider than I thought!

steebo77 on December 1, 2010 at 2:08 AM

How about Bolton, Pence, Pawlenty, that short guy from the midwest, etc.?

LASue on November 30, 2010 at 8:49 PM

Pawlenty is my first choice. He’s a two-term governor of a blue state who’s solidly conservative. He also has business sense. As much as I’d like Jindal to run he’s still turning LA around. Gov. Palin isn’t my first choice for president but I’d certainly vote for her.

annoyinglittletwerp on December 1, 2010 at 2:22 AM

Sux, I know, but do you think Giannoulias (or Burris) would have voted no? We are going to lose some with Kirk but we’d lose every single one with Giannoulias.

I did NOT vote for Kirk in the primary but how would not voting for Kirk in the general have changed this result?

Fallon on November 30, 2010 at 10:36 PM

I also voted for NARAL’s favorite Republican in the ‘general’-I think I voted for Lowery in the Primary- and he’s only been in the senate 2 days and has ALREADY managed to P.O. me!

annoyinglittletwerp on December 1, 2010 at 2:33 AM

annoyinglittletwerp on December 1, 2010 at 2:33 AM

Don’t you belong to your local TPP group yet? If you do give them a shout so the phone and letter writing campaign can begin. ;o)

DannoJyd on December 1, 2010 at 2:53 AM

More of the leftist media manipulating the voters through (no-not logic and reason) fear. It is the left’s paradigm while we talk logic they win through emotions (greed envy and fear run most things in the world)

The GOP isn’t too staunchy and uppity to do this -it is that they are more than content to be number two -they get the same cushy life as always and they will do nothing to upset it, or -as we’ve seen with their collective systematic destruction of Sarah Palin -do they give one hoot about what the people actually want. They will not fight – outside of a feint here and there like a you bull elk in the herd -they’ll back off if it ets serious.

Working with Obama after the nation just said to stop him means one thing – third party – not conversion. At least the Alinski-ites know how to pick a target, isolate it, etc. Unless….the GOP’s target is really the conservative God, Family values and gun-clinging crowd????? In which case -third party will solve that problem. Can it win? Well, not any more than it can penetrate or wake up the GOP, so there is no loss in trying.

Don L on December 1, 2010 at 4:56 AM

There was no poll question that the headline states.

PrezHussein on December 1, 2010 at 4:59 AM

AP you should have stuck with the first choice headline; “Palin’s Now Leading The Field.” That was the result based on their data. The rest of it appears to be pure speculation on the part of the pollster … or maybe wishful thinking.

The only thing this poll suggests is that Palin has pulled into the lead while Romney and Huckabee have fallen back to #3 and #4 – but the whole thing is close.

Personally, I like this headline; “Despite all efforts to trash Palin, she has moved up in the polls.”

Done That on December 1, 2010 at 5:40 AM

contrary to the endless invective aimed at Huckabee among the Hot Air commentariat, Huck does darned well among her supporters.

Not this one. I like Palin and would be happy to vote for her (again), but I loathe Huckabee and wouldn’t vote for that sleazy fraud if he held a loaded gun to my head and promised to shoot me if I didn’t.

AZCoyote on December 1, 2010 at 5:52 AM

Again Palin supporters have gotten the same in fact they have gotten worse.
unseen on November 30, 2010 at 11:18 PM

First of all this is not about anyone’s supporters; it’s about the candidate and the damage it does to them. Where has their been a poll where the polling company (in this case PPP) makes stuff up out of whole cloth? The poll says that the second choice for supporters of Mitt Romney is Sarah Palin. This poll asks not a single question about Obama. Period. (Also note how this provides strong evidence to support what I have contended all along which is that Mitt’s supporters don’t “hate” Sarah Palin, she’s just not their first choice).

This is not the same thing as creating a headline which does not match poll results. Unlike at blogs like this, the people who write articles for the media like, say, the Associated Press, don’t write the headlines. In this case Allah seized on a paragraph written by PPP and used it in the headline. But there are zero underlying poll results to justify PPP’s assertion. It is a complete fabrication on PPP’s part, and I challenge you to find where this happened in a poll to Sarah. Believe me, if it did, I’d be the first person to say it was b.s.

Buy Danish on December 1, 2010 at 6:59 AM

Well, someone has to say it: If Palin wins the Republican nomination, we will once again confirm that the Republican Party is the stupid party. Palin is the Republican version of Walter Mondale. She will lose at least 40 states against Obama.

Exit Question: For those of you who love Palin, why do you think that she can handle the pressure of the United States Presidency when she could not handle the pressure of being the Governor of Alaska?

RedSoxNation on December 1, 2010 at 7:06 AM

RedSoxNation on December 1, 2010 at 7:06 AM

she was able to handle the pressure, it was all the frivolous lawsuits….she was saving Alaska from all those headaches…

cmsinaz on December 1, 2010 at 7:13 AM

On the contrary people who will vote for Obama over Palin are stupid. I live outside of the US and I shudder to think the damage that Obama could do to the world if he gets another 4 years.

Exit Question: For those of you who love Palin, why do you think that she can handle the pressure of the United States Presidency when she could not handle the pressure of being the Governor of Alaska?

RedSoxNation on December 1, 2010 at 7:06 AM

Are you talking about the ethics violation charges? Even I know there is a difference between the Governor of a state and the President. If Palin becomes President she won’t have to deal with it. You display your ignorance about the real reason Palin resigned as Governor of Alaska.

Crux Australis on December 1, 2010 at 7:18 AM

I’m sorry. But if she cannot handle the pressure from “frivolous lawsuits,” she cannot handle the pressure of being President. And what makes you think these “frivolous lawsuits” will not start occuring again once she is President. Will she quit then to save the American people from all those headaches. If so, why should we elect her in the first place.

I really like Sarah Palin. But she is not ready to be President and it would be a huge mistake for Republicans to nominate her.

RedSoxNation on December 1, 2010 at 7:22 AM

Crux Australis

If you want to discuss the real reasons why she resigned as Governor, you might not want to forget all the money she has made after she was freed from her duties as Governor. And it is millions of dollars.

As for the stupid reference, it would be politically stupid for Republicans to nominate Sarah Palin; she cannot win.

Exit Question: For those of you who support Sarah Palin, do you find yourself making the same arguments for Palin that you made for Christine O’Donnell?

Remember, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting a different result.

Palin cannot win no matter how much you love her…

RedSoxNation on December 1, 2010 at 7:28 AM

I’m sorry. But if she cannot handle the pressure from “frivolous lawsuits,” she cannot handle the pressure of being President. And what makes you think these “frivolous lawsuits” will not start occuring again once she is President. Will she quit then to save the American people from all those headaches. If so, why should we elect her in the first place.

As President, she will be protected by executive privilege, a protection the Governor of AK doesn’t have.

But she is not ready to be President and it would be a huge mistake for Republicans to nominate her.

RedSoxNation on December 1, 2010 at 7:22 AM

The exact same thing can be said of Mitt although his record as MA Governor is much less impressive compared to Palin’s.

Jenfidel on December 1, 2010 at 7:30 AM

This is all BS. I backed Romney in ’08, and when he relinquished the nomination (thanks the West Virginia shenanigans by Mike Schnuckabee), I held my nose and voted for McCain, knowing how bad Obama would be.

olesparkie on December 1, 2010 at 7:41 AM

I still like and support Romney (I support Palin more), but I wish he’d come off his high horse and admit Romneycare was a mistake. We all have our foibles, I guess.

olesparkie on December 1, 2010 at 7:43 AM

At this moment, its Palin for me. I don’t see Jindal as much of a conservative. Check his liberal tendencies, its pretty clear he’d be another heartbreaker. We need to concentrate on the leftover RINOs also. This will be a tough year. By the way, don’t listen to all the “Palin Can’t Win” and “Romney Folks Will Vote For Obama” talk. They are just trying to discourage us. They think if they say it enough, we’ll believe it.

tgillian on December 1, 2010 at 7:44 AM

Seriously??? That’s the best we can do? Just a bunch of recycled political zombies?

We need SMART governance right now. We need FRESH ideas. TALENTED leadership to get us out of this mess.

Frankly, if that’s the best we have to offer… we deserve to get our butts kicked in the 2012. And here we are with another two years to go of this Obama nightmare. I don’t know how we’re going to last for six. I don’t know what’s going to be left worth saving afterwards.

Of that bunch, I’d have to go with Romney. But unless he’s got a SUPERLATIVE explanation for MassCare and a DEFINITIVE leadership plan, I can’t get excited about it.

Murf76 on December 1, 2010 at 7:46 AM

Hey how about nominating someone who appeals to both of these groups instead of letting the Rinos vote for the Dem like Sharron Angle did while we do nothing but call them names?

Speedwagon82 on December 1, 2010 at 7:47 AM

RedSoxNation on December 1, 2010 at 7:22 AM

she will not quit America…

cmsinaz on December 1, 2010 at 7:50 AM

tgillian on December 1, 2010 at 7:44 AM

just heard nicole wallace on morning joe giving the ‘Palin Can’t Win’ meme and shudders if she wins the nomination…

cmsinaz on December 1, 2010 at 7:52 AM

If Republicans try to become the party of “kinder gentler” socialized medicine, the race will be over before it has begun.

In 2008, there were a lot of people who had no idea who Barack Hussein Obama was. But by 2012, everyone who says he will vote for Obama “unless” the Republicans do a given thing — no matter what that is — will vote for Obama no matter what.

logis on December 1, 2010 at 7:58 AM

Bait and switch. We read the interesting Romney headline and then most of the post is about Palin and Huck. Naughty, naughty AP. Ah well, Mitt’s too vanilla to bash with gusto or get pleasure from it anyway. Totally unlike The Rev. Huck Gantry and his Church of Big Government with his crypto Mormon bashing sermons. Now that’s fun bashing him.

‘KP conservatives’ = Democrats. There’s no other way to explain it. Dems who voted for a left wing Repub. Mitt = Ford, Dole and so on. Nice guys, smart, accomplished, but waaay too moderate.

JimP on December 1, 2010 at 7:59 AM

Huckabee has the most governing experience-10 1/2 years of running a microcosm of the federal government, left due to term limits with an approval rating in the 60′s.

Huckabee would out-debate Obama, Huckabee is much humbler than Obama, Huckabee does not need a teleprompter like Obama, and finally Huckabee is great at talking kitchen table issues with the people who are worried about their paychecks.

Huckabee vs Obama 2012

Even Obama worries about Huckabee beating him in 2012

texasconserv on December 1, 2010 at 8:04 AM

I’m glad none of this polling crap matters.
People are so freaking fickle.
Geez.
OK. I liked Romney & voted for him in the primaries last main election.
I do admire the man, but yeah, he’s got baggage.
And for many LDS people who do still support him, I highly doubt they’ll be voting for Obama. I think it’s a huge safe bet they will not & never have.
For the ‘Independents’ AKA Fence Sitters who can’t make up their mind about what they’re even goinng to wear the next day, are we always going to be at their mercy?
Are there really that many ding dongs in this country that catch a whiff of stupid & fly with it?
Ugh.

Badger40 on December 1, 2010 at 8:07 AM

Huckabee vs Obama 2012

Even Obama worries about Huckabee beating him in 2012

texasconserv on December 1, 2010 at 8:04 AM

Yeah. I really like how Huckabee insults us LDS folks. He’s a real piece of sh- I mean work.
So classy.

Badger40 on December 1, 2010 at 8:08 AM

SUPERLATIVE explanation for MassCare and a DEFINITIVE leadership plan, I can’t get excited about it.
Murf76 on December 1, 2010 at 7:46 AM

You do understand, don’t you, that Mitt is still DEFENDING Romneycare?

Do you really think he has some kind of “superlative” explanation sitting around somewhere, that he’s saving for a special occasion?

logis on December 1, 2010 at 8:09 AM

As someone who pays $528/month for my RomneyCare here in the Bay State, anyone who supports Mitt deserves Mitt.

As for me, I want Chrisie/Rubio ’12.

DarthBrooks on December 1, 2010 at 8:10 AM

RedSoxNation on December 1, 2010 at 7:28 AM

Do we both want Obama out of the White House? I am talking about the consequences to the world at large of Obama being President for 8 years.

Iran gets a nuclear bomb?
North Korea becomes more unstable?
Israel’s future threatened?
Smaller allies like Australia having to rely less on the US?
The US becoming more beholden to China?

I could go on.

Crux Australis on December 1, 2010 at 8:11 AM

I mean seriously. We’re looking at Huckabee, Romney and Palin as front runners. Throw in Newt if you want. This is why Obama will win re-election. Bob Dole and McCain look like juggernauts in comparison. Maybe Romney has a shot… if everything breaks right…maybe. I dont particularly like him but he has his moments when he sounds good.

Dash on December 1, 2010 at 8:15 AM

logis on December 1, 2010 at 8:09 AM

Well, if the only offerings are what’s been mentioned in this post… what else is there to do but cross your fingers and PRAY that Romney comes up with some kind of explanation? I mean, you can do a plan like MassCare at the state level and still not be abusing the Constitution. But it’s just NOT smart.

At this point, I think we’re gonna have to stuff Bobby Jindal in a large bag and MAKE him run. There’s nothing for it. lolol

Murf76 on December 1, 2010 at 8:17 AM

Unless you can get over half the country to turn off their T.V., and read nothing for the next two years, Palin doesn’t stand a chance. It’s not her Presidency that makes me shudder, it’s the idea of the ugly circus that will surround it.

anniekc on December 1, 2010 at 8:21 AM

‘KP conservatives’ = Democrats. There’s no other way to explain it. Dems who voted for a left wing Repub. Mitt = Ford, Dole and so on. Nice guys, smart, accomplished, but waaay too moderate.
JimP on December 1, 2010 at 7:59 AM

Remember how all the “moderates” who supported McCain switched to Obama right before the last election? And how many peoplw who supported Obama switched to McCain when it came time to vote?

There are two reasons the media push Republican candidates like McCain and Romney:

1. They want to maximize the chance that the Republican Party will lose, and

2. They want to guarantee that no conservative will win.

logis on December 1, 2010 at 8:27 AM

If a lot of Romney supporters like Obama more than Palin, then we really don’t want Romney as President. I have always been uneasy with Romney Care in MA. How conservative can governor from MA truly be?

jeffn21 on December 1, 2010 at 8:36 AM

That has always been the problems with RINO by being dem lite they can not attack and seperate themselves form the liberal and thus they have to run a popularity contest and mitt doesn’t have the charisma to beat Obama in that contest.
unseen on November 30, 2010 at 11:22 PM

Sums it up nicely. Unfortunately that is a lesson that the Good Ol Party Establishment just cannot internalize.

james23 on December 1, 2010 at 8:49 AM

Whose azz did the PPP pull this poll out of? There is no way a Palin voter is going to go with Zero over anybody else. We love this country and are sick and tired of seeing it go down the drain of progressiveism or any other kind of ism. Why don’t we wait until someone actually announces they are running to worry about this.

Kissmygrits on December 1, 2010 at 8:51 AM

e need some conservative knight in shining armor to ride in and save the day? who?

A white knight would have made his or her presence very well known in the battle against socialism for the last two years. In fact there is only one con who has fought the good fight every day for more than 2 years. That white knight is right in front of you.

White knights who have been keeping a low profile for the last two years aren’t white knights. They are phonies waiting to jump to the front of the parade.

james23 on December 1, 2010 at 9:10 AM

The Romney folks perhaps are a greater concern for Republicans because some of them might actually vote for Obama if a Gingrich or Palin gets nominated.

It’s called a bluff.

Sure, they feel that strongly for Romney that they’d be willing to threaten to vote for Obama. But if they do that, they’re simply proving their belief that there’s NO DIFFERENCE between those two politicians.

I remember saying in ’06 that I’d NEVER vote for McCain regardless which office he were running for. And in ’08 I considered keeping my promise to myself to write-in Fred Thompson’s name on my general ballot. But I had to make my vote against Obamarx count, so indeed I couldn’t afford to make my statement, and voted for McCain given Sarah! on his ticket.

Things happen. You have to fight on the ballot box grounds you’re on in the heat of battle rather than only those ideals you promoted and remain dedicated to upholding.

maverick muse on December 1, 2010 at 9:20 AM

All I am saying then, is that its much easier to win when you can draw moderate conservatives, because the ultra conservatives like Palin supporters are going to vote republican no matter what, simply as a vote against Obama.
thphilli on November 30, 2010 at 9:06 PM

Based on the above it appears that some in the GOP are counting on Palin supporters to be such good lockstep anti-Obama people that they’ll fall in line but the same isn’t expected of the Romney voters.

The Palin supporters get dissed and ragged on for threatening to stay home if Romney is the candidate but we’re supposed to accommodate the Romeny supporters who might switch to Obama? Apparently the GOP must ignore conservative issues in order to pander to the squishes who are uncomfortable with anyone other than white-bread moderates.

katiejane on December 1, 2010 at 9:32 AM

If mitt’s suporters could vote for obama then that means mitt is just obama lite.

tinkerthinker on December 1, 2010 at 9:33 AM

In fact there is only one con who has fought the good fight every day for more than 2 years. That white knight is right in front of you.

james23 on December 1, 2010 at 9:10 AM

And who is that? Fought the fight how? Words? A conservative version of candidate Obama who talks a good game or who?

Dash on December 1, 2010 at 9:34 AM

some of them might actually vote for Obama if a Gingrich or Palin gets nominated

All that shows is that ppp can no longer be considered legitimate. I was an enthusiastic Romney voter but his lame performance over the past two years has dissuaded me. I had hoped he would be more vocal and aggressive towards the fascist takeover of our economy (more Palinesque if you will). The majority of Romney voters hoped, and some still hope I’d bet, he was a true conservative and his missteps in massachusetts (and I still kind of believe this) were a matter of getting done what was possible in that horribly dysfunctional state (don’t forget that this is the state that sends the foul barney frank back to congress time and again). I would wager that in fact Romney’s supporters in 2008 were more principled conservatives than those that went for elmer gantry huckabee. Those conservatives will never vote for barry.

peacenprosperity on December 1, 2010 at 9:56 AM

because the ultra conservatives like Palin supporters

It’s mind boggling how many people fall for the msm narrative time and again. Anyone who says anything like that is not a conservative and likely is a regular watcher of katie or brian. Palin is a constitutionist and a free marketer. If you consider that ultra conservative you may want to turn your thinking inward because that’s where the problem lays. You are not a conservative.

peacenprosperity on December 1, 2010 at 10:00 AM

It’s called a bluff.

It’s not a bluff, it’s a made up story by someone with a leftist agenda. Seriously, where have you heard, anywhere else, Romney supporters saying they would vote for barry? Where? When? No where. They are screwing with our heads and we are going to let them do it. There is going to be a republican presidential debate in the spring? They are just trying to have the republicans destroy themselves and falling for this kind of bs is falling into the trap.

peacenprosperity on December 1, 2010 at 10:04 AM

Romney, Daniels, Jindal are the best of the pick.

Gingrich and Palin are garbage.

Huckabee…I don’t know, I guess I’d hold my nose and vote for hm.

therightwinger

And you are “the rightwinger”? You don’t have to support Palin for president..but she is “garbage”?? Tell me one of her positions on policy that you disagree with “rightwinger”? No personal nonsense. I am asking for a policy position of Palin’s with which you DISAGREE.

Dan Pet on December 1, 2010 at 10:18 AM

It is a two way race: Palin against Romney. Palin wins that one. Then it will be Palin aginst the Democrats, the entire MSM, and the Republican Party. Obama wins that one.

If by some odd chance Pain wins the general, the shrieks will be heard in distant galaxies.

SurferDoc on December 1, 2010 at 10:35 AM

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