PPP poll: Romney voters a risk to switch to Obama if he loses nomination?

posted at 8:26 pm on November 30, 2010 by Allahpundit

I could have gone two ways with the headline here. One was to note that Palin’s now leading the field, albeit narrowly — 21 percent to Gingrich’s 19, Romney’s 18, and Huckabee’s 16. The other was to note that those darned RINOs in Mitt’s base just might be ready to bolt, Delaware-style, if their man’s not the pick in 2012.

I went with my gut that you guys might just be in the mood for an ol’ fashioned RINO stomp.

-Huckabee voters give Palin a 64/27 favorability, Gingrich a 53/23 one, and Romney a 59/26 one. That makes the net favorability for the other candidates an average +33.

-Palin voters give Huckabee a 52/19 favorability, Gingrich a 42/38 one, and Romney a 40/35 one. That makes the net favorability for the other candidates an average +14…

-Romney voters give Huckabee a 46/25 favorability, Palin a 46/36 one, and Gingrich a 41/42 one. That makes the net favorability for the other candidates an average +10.

The Gingrich and Huckabee voters are going to be fine if someone else gets nominated. They’re pretty happy with all the other candidates. The Romney folks perhaps are a greater concern for Republicans because some of them might actually vote for Obama if a Gingrich or Palin gets nominated. The Palin folks aren’t all that big on the other candidates either- the chances of them voting for Obama seem quite slim but might they sit home or throw some of their votes to a conservative third party candidate if Romney wins the nomination?

Yeah, that’s an interesting parallel in Romney fans and Palin fans, although for completely different reasons. Mitt’s probably cleaning up among Republican centrists who might otherwise consider voting for a strong Democrat. (Let’s call them “Kathleen Parker conservatives.”) Palin, on the other hand, commands a bunch of conservatives who would never vote Democrat and whose devotion to her might lead some to stay home if she’s not the pick. Although, contrary to the endless invective aimed at Huckabee among the Hot Air commentariat, Huck does darned well among her supporters. Consider that proof that social conservatism is more important to her base than some of us might have thought. In fact, Huckabee scores the highest favorable rating among Palin’s, Romney’s, and Gingrich’s supporters (aside from Palin, Romney, and Gingrich themselves, respectively). I wonder if that’s inducement enough to get him to consider running. If any one of them bows out early or chooses not to run at all, he’s primed to pick up a bunch of their supporters and, with them, a whole lot of momentum. (Although do note: Romney supporters marginally prefer Palin to Huckabee as a second choice, possibly because Mitt’s Mormon base skews conservative.) Are you ready for Huckabee/Christie 2012?

On the other hand, if Huck doesn’t run, Palin’s the big winner. She takes 34 percent of his supporters as a second choice compared to just 19 percent for Gingrich and 17 percent for Romney. That’s a considerable spread, to the point where I wonder if there aren’t some establishment anti-Palin Republicans out there suddenly getting very nervous at the thought that Huck might not run and that social conservatives will unite behind Palin. They’re going to need a stalking horse to bleed some of those votes away from her. But who, if not Huck? Santorum? C’mon.


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If you liked Romney, you’ll love Obama!

Herb on December 1, 2010 at 10:35 AM

We’re going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It’s our M.O., and so long as those on the right and left of the Right can’t see the huge difference between the two parties, it’ll continue being our M.O.

Esthier on December 1, 2010 at 10:44 AM

I am asking for a policy position of Palin’s with which you DISAGREE.

Dan Pet on December 1, 2010 at 10:18 AM

For some people, there’s far more to a candidate than that.

Would you have voted for Alan Greene if you’d agreed with him?

Esthier on December 1, 2010 at 10:46 AM

If the stupid RINOs want to bolt let em. Sarah will pick up enough True conservative Dems and Independents to negate their switching, across isle back slapping, bipartisanship!

I sick and tired of Conservatives not being able to get their bills passed or liberalism blocked because a bunch of stupid RINOs are hangin on like an anchor around the necks of progress.
If the last election showed anything it showed the RINOs are an endangered species!
Send em packing to where they want to be in the first place but are too dishonest to say it!

dhunter on December 1, 2010 at 10:58 AM

I find it somewhere between troubling, amazing, and amusing that all indication suggest that Republicans are going to hand the 2012 election to Obama.

The factions and in-fighting, the abject lack of respect for the differing viewpoints and candidates within the conservative party … its simply stunning that we can be this stupid. Again.

Either come together … or just vote for Obama. If you’re one of the people in this thread mocking Romney supporters or Palin supporters or Gingrich supporters, if you’re doing it in a mean, petty, and personal way, with no effort to see the other side …

… then just vote for Obama. Seriously. Its what you’re doing, anyway.

I’m amazed that we’re doing this. Again.

Professor Blather on December 1, 2010 at 11:21 AM

We’re going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It’s our M.O., and so long as those on the right and left of the Right can’t see the huge difference between the two parties, it’ll continue being our M.O.

Esthier on December 1, 2010 at 10:44 AM

Yep.

Sadly.

There are only two possibilities to hope for:

1) A unifying candidate emerges, someone with conservative credentials and significant executive experience. I can’t think of a single soul who currently fits the bill – certainly not anybody actually electable.

2) The Democrats act even more childishly and stupidly than we are and engage in an even more counter-productive circular firing squad.

The only good news is that while point one is doubtful, point two is reasonably likely to occur.

It would certainly be better if we’d just learn from the past, though. Wouldn’t it?

Call me in 2013. Peace.

Professor Blather on December 1, 2010 at 11:25 AM

She could always pull a Reagan and pick the RINO Mittens as her VP. Shoots the whole shabang in the kiester.

PJ Emeritus on December 1, 2010 at 11:28 AM

It is a two way race: Palin against Romney. Palin wins that one. Then it will be Palin aginst the Democrats, the entire MSM, and the Republican Party. Obama wins that one.

SurferDoc on December 1, 2010 at 10:35 AM

Um, no. Palin is winning that battle. That’s why the “we like Palin, but I don’t think she can win” meme was started by the Left. Palin is the one they are scared of because she has a real shot at winning and the MSM can’t do anything to bring her down anymore. It’s not working.

If you think it’s bad with Palin, you will WISH she were the nominee if someone else wins. They will make Palin look like a hero compared to what they will do to anyone else that might win the nomination. And it’s easy to see why. They have nothing left against Palin. And it’s starting to show. Hence the new meme.

Palin and her cultists (to be fair, it is mostly her cultists) are actively trying to drive moderate Republicans out of the party.

AngusMc on December 1, 2010 at 12:18 AM

You have it backwards. The RINO’s want Palin out. Happens all the time (in both parties) when someone who isn’t establishment wants to run. Like I said earlier, the MSM isn’t having any effect anymore. So the establishment Republicans are having to take the baton. By Feb or March or even after that, she’ll be a real force to win the nomination.

The problem with Republicans of the past is that they never defended their candidate. They kept losing to RINOs and sometimes losing to liberals. How in the world did McCain become the nominee anyhow? The MSM chose him. Don’t let the MSM tell you who to pick this time around. If they don’t want Palin, it’s because she has a real chance to win. And don’t blame people for defending her when they see someone that can have a positive effect on the US.

MrX on December 1, 2010 at 11:28 AM

National Review: “RomneyCare has proven to be a disaster in Massachusetts.”

http://www.rightspeak.net/2010/12/national-review-romneycare-has-proven.html

takeamericabackin10 on December 1, 2010 at 11:34 AM

Let them bolt.

What discernable good does it do to us to have people who are ideologically aligned with the opposition yet PRETEND to be on our side?

Nothing.

Keeping the RINOs in our tent are a lose-lose proposition. We can focus on refining the populist appeal of a free-market-based prosperity and individual liberty without polluting the platform with RINO compromises.

Let them bolt. The GOP will be better off.

Khorum on December 1, 2010 at 11:38 AM

That’s why the “we like Palin, but I don’t think she can win” meme was started by the Left.

MrX on December 1, 2010 at 11:28 AM

“Invented by the left”??? Really? lolol

Murf76 on December 1, 2010 at 11:39 AM

How conservative can you be if your second choice is Obama? Seriously?

Queen0fCups on December 1, 2010 at 11:39 AM

MrX on December 1, 2010 at 11:28 AM

Nice analysis.

rrpjr on December 1, 2010 at 11:51 AM

The solution is simple:
A Romney/Palin or Palin/Romney ticket

Resolute on December 1, 2010 at 12:30 PM

The solution is simple:
A Romney/Palin or Palin/Romney ticket

Resolute on December 1, 2010 at 12:30 PM

Palin was constrained by an Old Pandering RINO last time around!
It worked so well we should try that again?

If this were to be tried at all it had better be:
Palin/Romneycare

I like this:
Palin/Cain, Herman Cain

dhunter on December 1, 2010 at 12:57 PM

Let’s see:

I HAD TO vote for McCain for the UNITY with the RINO’s… who are now threatening to vote against the party if they don’t get yet another try at running a crappy candidate?

I must show unity and support your guy if he wins, but you will not just “take your ball and go home” but switch sides to play against me if my guy wins?

Can we now agree not to listen when the RINO’s whine that their candidates are being primaried and disliked by the new “Tea Party” candidates?

If my choices are:
1) RINO stops conservative ideals from getting proposed.
2) We might not win with a real conservative; who if victorious, would support conservative ideals.

Why would I support the RINO? Given the presumption that my end-goal is conservative policies and legislation… what’s the benefit of voting for a(nother) candidate who will block that?

gekkobear on December 1, 2010 at 1:41 PM

If this is true (which I doubt), then Sarah will pick up a PUMA or two and balance things out.

TwilightAuthor on December 1, 2010 at 1:43 PM

Romney voters a risk to switch to Obama if he loses nomination? –ALLAHPUNDIT

And in other news, “Palin voters a risk to form Conservative Third Party if faux-conservative Romney wins nomination

I would be more concerned about demoralizing the conservative base than bowing down to any wishy-washy finger-in-the-air RINOs. Pundits only count on moderates because they ASSUME the conservatives will follow like the good little sheeple they are.

Sorry AP, not any more. Mitt wins nomination, and I start looking third-party and say to hell with the GOP.

dominigan on December 1, 2010 at 1:49 PM

Let them bolt. The GOP will be better off.

Khorum on December 1, 2010 at 11:38 AM

Absolutely. Conservatives are going to be going to war on 2012. And when going to war, you have to be able to trust the guy guarding your back. If you can’t, its time to look for more trustworthy backup… which you do before entering combat with the enemy!

dominigan on December 1, 2010 at 1:53 PM

I am asking for a policy position of Palin’s with which you DISAGREE.

Dan Pet on December 1, 2010 at 10:18 AM

For some people, there’s far more to a candidate than that.

Esthier on December 1, 2010 at 10:46 AM

That’s right! Sometimes its the fact the candidate is a woman, or that the candidate doesn’t have the prefered skin color, or that the candidate is too attractive, or the candidate is too successful, or that the candidate refused to kill her retarded child, or that the candidate supported her daughter as a single mom raising her grandchild, … /sarc

This is politics. Policies are what matter. Anything else is an emotional response where you are choosing to put your personal emotions above the needs of our country. It is an attitude that got Obama elected, and an attitude that I personally find repugnant.

dominigan on December 1, 2010 at 2:04 PM

Crux Australis

If you want Obama out of the white house, then you would not support Palin. No matter how much you or I love her, she cannot win. Maybe things will change over time; but she cannot win in 2012.

So, if you want Obama out, you better support someone besides Palin.

Good luck…

RedSoxNation on December 1, 2010 at 2:16 PM

Exit Question: For those of you who support Palin for 2012, do you find yourself making the same arguments about her changes at winning that you made about Christine O’Donnell’s chances of winning in Delaware?

If so, you have your answwer about whether Palin can win: NO!

No matter how much any of us like (or love) Sarah Palin, she cannot win in 2012. A Palin candidacy equals an Obama reelection.

RedSoxNation on December 1, 2010 at 2:19 PM

RedSoxNation on December 1, 2010 at 2:19 PM

Says Who? Karl, Karl Rove is that you?

dhunter on December 1, 2010 at 3:35 PM

No matter how much any of us like (or love) Sarah Palin, she cannot win in 2012.
RedSoxNation on December 1, 2010 at 2:19 PM

A tad incoherent, no? Think about it.

rrpjr on December 1, 2010 at 8:04 PM

RedSoxNation on December 1, 2010 at 2:16 PM

Who is this clown?

TheBradkyRedSoxBlueSite?

Good grief…

Inanemergencydial on December 1, 2010 at 8:50 PM

Um, no. Palin is winning that battle.

Um, no, she isn’t.

That’s why the “we like Palin, but I don’t think she can win” meme was started by the Left.

Keep telling yourself that. Say hi to Christine O’Donnell while you’re at it. I think that “she can’t win” meme was started by the left too.

I don’t care who started it. All that matters is that they are right, and we better take heed. Palin can’t win. You Palinites better get a grip on reality, or it’s going to be 4 more years of Marxism in the White House.

xblade on December 2, 2010 at 12:43 PM

I will never turn to the Dark Side, er, vote for President Obama!! NEVER!!

While not everyone is a fan of Palin, Romney, Huckabee, or whomever, I don’t get the whole “If my guy doesn’t win, I’ll vote for Obama or stay at home” vibe being sent out by so many so-called Conservatives.

You either want to retire Barrack Hussein Obama (mmm, mmm, mmm) and his lackeys or you don’t.

Explanation, please.

itzWicks on December 2, 2010 at 4:26 PM

Speaking as an admitted Palinista, Palinite, or whatever, I am curious as to what an administration led by her would do to cause such great fear and angst among those not of the same like mind.

What specific policies and sentiments has she articulated that would make voters lie awake in a pool of their own sweat? What associations of hers, past, present, and likely future sends alarm bells across the fruited plain? And what evidence is there that she would actually govern differently than what she is professing?

For those souls that are not onboard with the celebrity aspects of Palin, I hear you, but I personally haven’t seen her do anything that is over-the-top undignified or embarrassing.

And now for some rehashed talking points worth rementioning:

* There is no way the GOP is going to just hand her the nomination by default of her assumed entry into the fray. Just won’t happen. She will have to fight for it like anybody else.

* If Palin announces her candidacy for 2012, she won’t remain static, but will put together a team capable of not only winning a primary season, but will obviously look forward to a general campaign. The battle-hardened woman of 2012 won’t be the same celebrity personality of 2010.

* Palin, if nothing else, will either unify the party or help Obama secure a second term by virtue of vision that she puts out there for examination. The GOP will either embrace it or not. I can’t imagine for the life of me why anyone who calls themself a conservative would passively (or actively) facility another four years of Obama?

At the end of the day, we’ve got some time to work out the bugs to this whole thing. Let the best person win, and then let’s work to send Obama into private life.

itzWicks on December 2, 2010 at 4:46 PM

The plain facts are that the republican and democrat labels have become obsolete. It is now the progressives and the conservatives. The establishment GOP known as RINOS are the new third party and really have no clue how insignificant they have become. Murkowski, Castle, Bennet, Graham and Specter have exposed the RINOS for what they are and it isn’t pretty. This is going to take awhile to sort out. The last election was just a small step in getting it done.

volsense on December 2, 2010 at 7:49 PM

Are you ready for Huckabee/Christie 2012?

Hell yes! I will take any two true conservatives. Palin, Huckabee, Christie, DeMint and/or Gingrich are all good in my book. :) :) :)

Theophile on December 3, 2010 at 4:17 AM

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