South Korean president: Another provocation by North Korea will invite “enormous retaliation”

However, there are no plans to send more ships or forces in response to the strike.

Weakness in the face of a provocation invites a conflict.

If they believe that the South Korean government is weak and that the American’s won’t back up the South, the North Koreans may take a gamble at reunification by military action.

sharrukin on November 23, 2010 at 4:00 PM

Herbert Walker Bush had his ambassador say… “We understand that and our opinion is that you should have the opportunity to rebuild your country. But we have no opinion on the Arab-Arab conflicts, like your border disagreement with Kuwait.” This led Saddam to believe that he was OK with an Iraqi invasion of Kuwait.

Weakness invites aggression.

sharrukin on November 23, 2010 at 4:06 PM

“We took notice of some reports; we paid a close attention to the situation,” said Hong Lei, spokesman for the China Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “We wish each side stay calm and exercise restraint, build mutual trust and work together for peace and stability of the peninsula.”

sharrukin on November 23, 2010 at 5:04 PM

I wonder if this attack may be primarily related to China rather than North Korea? Is it possible that the new uranium plant in North Korea was a warning that the Chinese feel was ignored? Analysts suggest that it was provided from an outside source due to the advanced nature of the plant. They have also noted that the uranium plant was oddly placed out in the open as if they wanted it to be noticed.

Was the Cheonan sinking also a warning to the United States? This was the ship torpedoed by what was believed to be a North Korean submarine.

Was this recent artillery bombardment another warning by proxy from China to the United States?

In January, China suspended contacts with the U.S. military as retaliation for a $6.4 billion arms sale to Taiwan, the self-governing island China claims as its own territory. This sale includes Patriot missiles.

In February, Luo, writing in the official Outlook Weekly, said China should consider dumping some Treasury bonds following the U.S. announcement of an arms sale to Taiwan, Reuters reported at the time.
26 March 2010 The Cheonan was sunk.

June 27 U.S. President Barack Obama (in his own words) held a “blunt” conversation with China’s President Hu Jintao, accusing him and his nation of “willful blindness” in relation to North Korea’s “belligerent behavior.” Upbraiding his Chinese counterpart, Obama stated, “I think there’s a difference between restraint and willful blindness to consistent problems.”

June 29 “Large-scale, anti-submarine drills were set for earlier this month in the ROK, but were postponed to give the US more time for preparations. They had been rescheduled for this week, but were delayed again and may take place in July. “If they insist on holding the drills under the current circumstances, it would only further escalate tensions in the region,” said Zhai Dequan, deputy secretary-general of the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association. “The US and ROK should continue to postpone or cancel the military drills,” Zhai said.

“The planned US-South Korean military drill was postponed until July because the schedule remains unfinished, South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency said Monday ( June 28).”

With the postponement of the proposed US-South Korea naval exercise, there has been an apparent attempt by Chinese circles also to play down the earlier interpretation of the live-ammunition exercise of the People’s Liberation Army’s Navy in the East China Sea as in response to the proposed US-South Korea naval exercise. Some Chinese commentators are now claiming that the dates for the Chinese drill were fixed sometime ago and that the Chinese drill was not connected with the US-South Korea exercise. However, while the US and South Korea have postponed their joint exercise, the PLA Navy is going ahead with its exercise as scheduled from June 30. It will continue till July 5.

“The drill will be held from midnight to 6 pm every day. All irrelevant ships are prohibited from entering the region during the drill, the notice said.

Joint U.S.-South Korean naval drills with the participation of U.S. aircraft carrier are due to start on July 5. The same day, Chinese naval drills in the East China Sea will be over.

The U.S. and South Korea will refrain from using the Yellow Sea for joint military drills between July 25 and 28 amid Chinese concern that the exercises risk aggravating regional tension.

The exercises, involving 20 vessels and 200 aircraft, will be held off South Korea’s east coast, Rear Admiral Kim Kyung Sik told reporters today in Seoul.

These exercises were originally meant to be held in the Yellow Sea off the west coast of Korea.

Today’s statement that they will be restricted to the east coast suggests a concession to China, said Kim Yong Hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Seoul-based Dongguk University.

“The Cheonan incident helped bring to the surface the conflicting military interests between the U.S. and China regarding the Korean peninsula,” Kim said. “The U.S. and South Korea would have to accommodate China’s security concerns in the region if they were to use China’s leverage in solving North Korean issues.”

August The Beihai fleet of the navy of the People’s Liberation Army will conduct a “live ammunition drill” from Wednesday to Saturday off the coast of eastern China’s Qingdao city, Xinhua news agency reported.

“This would be a fresh provocation following a series of joint US-ROK (South Korean) activities that have caused tensions in East Asia,” Chinese Rear Admiral Yang Yi said in an August 13 commentary in the China Daily.

“Offending Chinese people is not in the fundamental interest of the US… any activity aimed at pushing a country with a 1.3-billion populace with enormous potential would be inadvisable.”

October 26 Pentagon officials “We absolutely and categorically did not scale back in order to placate Beijing,” a defense official said. “The decision to postpone was due solely to the complexities of the planning process, and not about China. We are working on planning for joint exercises intended to send a clear message to Korea about its behavior and its actions.”

Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell was adamant. “We have caved to no one,” he said. “The USS George Washington will exercise in Yellow Sea again, just as we have always said it would.”

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20100826mr.html

But since the Cheonan sinking and planning for the current U.S.-South Korean exercises began, China has raised a chorus of objections. They have been led and fanned by the military establishment.

This is a cause for regional concern because it suggests that key Chinese foreign and defense policies are now being shaped by military officers rather than civilians.

Writing in the Aug. 12 edition of Liberation Army Daily, the main mouthpiece of the Chinese armed forces, Maj. Gen. Luo Yuan, deputy secretary general of the Academy of Military Sciences, said that “a country needs respect, and a military also needs respect.” He accused the U.S. of “pushing its security boundary to the doorstep of others — the Yellow Sea, South China Sea and so on,” adding that if this continued China would have to “hurt” America in return.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-10/chinese-general-says-u-s-carrier-in-yellow-sea-may-result-in-retaliation.html

Luo said the U.S. is trying to “threaten the Chinese people and test China’s bottom line with this maneuver,” adding that deployment of the carrier to the area will damage U.S.-China ties.

sharrukin on November 24, 2010 at 4:00 AM