Stacy McCain – always on top of New York politics – reports that while the margin is tantalizingly close, it’s all but certain now that Ann Marie Buerkle will win her race against Dan Maffei for New York’s 25th congressional district seat.

Republicans are now at 240 House seats and they haven’t had 241 seats since 1949. And Sam Foster at Left Coast Rebel reports that Ann Marie Buerkle is 411 votes ahead of Dan Maffei in NY-25 after the count of absentee ballots from Onondaga County.

The Buerkle campaign says victory is a “mathematical certainty,” and the Lonely Conservative headlines it: “Buerkle Lead Can’t Be Beat.”

The real difference between 240 and 241 may be negligible in terms of upcoming votes in the House, but for the psychological warfare aspect of the political arena this will give a boost to GOP enthusiasm, particularly in New York. The Empire State saw its Republican delegation depleted to near extinction levels since 2006, and while a number of those seats were taken back this year, they’re still down from the numbers they enjoyed in the 2000 – 2004 era.

Results are not yet official, with Wayne County still tallying up their absentee ballots, but that’s been a Buerkle stronghold thus far and it’s looking like her 411 vote lead will hold – if not expand – from this point. Stay tuned.

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