PPP: Palin now leading in Texas, Maine, Wisconsin, West Virginia

posted at 6:40 pm on November 11, 2010 by Allahpundit

I touched on this in the RomneyCare post, but I know Palin fans would be angry if we didn’t devote a separate post to the results. So here you go. Just proving our fair-and-balanced bona fides ahead of the inevitable Townhall/Hot Air presidential debate next year.

The most important state to the nomination process on this list is Florida and there Romney’s ahead with 28% to 22% for Palin and 15% for Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee. It should be noted that although Romney does have the lead, it’s a much less lofty one than what he posted in a March PPP poll of the state when he had 44%. The only other candidates included in that poll were Palin and Huckabee and we’re finding more and more as we do these polls that when new folks are added into the mix it tends to hurt Romney more than anyone else. His support is less solid than Palin’s and Huckabee’s so even though he looks like a very nominal front runner at this point, he’s also the candidate most likely to see his support collapse as things heat up

Palin holds small leads in the remaining states. Most noteworthy is her strength in Texas and West Virginia, which suggests a bid from her could really hurt Mike Huckabee in the South. In Texas she gets 22% to 20% for Huckabee and 15% for both Gingrich and Romney. In West Virginia she’s at 25% to 22% for Huckabee and again 15% for both Gingrich and Romney. These margins are obviously very close but they nevertheless pose trouble for Huckabee and perhaps even more so Gingrich if she ends up making a bad because strength in the South would be vital to either of their prospects.

Romney may not have a complete strangle hold on New England- Palin gets 23% in Maine to 18% for Romney, 16% for Huckabee, and 14% for Gingrich. Those numbers should give folks who think there’s no chance Maine Republicans would nominate someone far right against Olympia Snowe in 2012 second thoughts. And finally Palin gets 18% in Wisconsin to 15% for Huckabee, 14% for Gingrich, and 12% for Romney. Pawlenty has his best non-Minnesota performance so far at 8%, not surprising given that it’s right next door. And Pawlenty’s unusually strong Wisconsin number helps to explain Romney’s unusually weak Wisconsin number.

The numbers in West Virginia and Texas aren’t surprising; obviously she and Huck will compete for southern and rural voters, and her name recognition’s higher than his at the moment. Wisconsin’s a surprise, though, and Maine is a big surprise. As happy as Sarahcuda must be to see these numbers, Romney must be utterly deflated. Down five points already in his own backyard? And note the boldfaced bit, please — that’s exactly the point Frum was making in the column I linked earlier about Mitt’s support being momentarily broad but potentially only an inch deep. If, as he and I have speculated, much of Romney’s support comes from centrists who are simply looking for an alternative to Palin, then he’s at risk of flaming out as soon as a more attractive centrist alternative to him emerges. Which raises a question that’s been asked before: Does Mitt actually need Palin to run in order to maximize his chances? Right now he’s the Great Centrist Hope, the guy who can potentially head her off because of his fundraising and organizational skills. If she decides not to run, then he’s just the guy responsible for RomneyCare, who needs to sell himself as somehow superior to Daniels and Thune. And of course, without Palin in the race, Huckabee would stand to clean up among social cons, which would in itself present a challenge to Romney. Then again, given how much contempt most of our commenters seem to have for Huck, maybe having him pose a serious threat for the nomination would actually restore Romney as the Great Centrist Hope and unite people behind him. I’m giving myself a migraine here.

Just breaking as I write this: Palin’s announced the itinerary for her new book tour, and of 16 scheduled stops, two of them are in Iowa. Hmmmm. Exit question: Is super-genius Nancy Pelosi right that the odds against The One being reelected are now long and he’ll have to run a simply perfect campaign to pull it off? Exit answer from Larry Sabato: No, dummy.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4

alwaysfiredup on November 11, 2010 at 9:08 PM

Your teams were soo close..raises Beer Stein at alwaysfiredup..:)

Dire Straits on November 11, 2010 at 9:11 PM

Here’s the Hillbilly from Wasilly’s book tour schedule just announced:

Here’s the list of stops:

Nov. 23: Phoenix
Nov. 26: Tulsa, Okla.
Nov. 27: Norfolk, Neb.
Nov. 27: Des Moines
Nov. 28: Andover, Kan.
Nov. 28: Dallas
Nov. 29: Houston
Nov. 29: New Orleans
Nov. 30: Baton Rouge, La.
Nov. 30: Little Rock, Ark.
Dec. 1: Brentwood, Tenn.
Dec. 1: Lexington, Ky.
Dec. 2: Spirit Lake, Iowa
Dec. 2. Carmel, Ind.
Dec. 3: Cincinnati
Dec. 3: Columbia, S.C.

PappyD61 on November 11, 2010 at 9:12 PM

Bristol is still dancin’. Nuff said.

Kissmygrits on November 11, 2010 at 6:56 PM

Yes, and she actually should have been gone two weeks ago if it was on her dancing. No way should she be in the semi-finals other than her mother’s fans keeping her in.

silvernana on November 11, 2010 at 9:12 PM

Here’s the Hillbilly from Wasilly’s
PappyD61 on November 11, 2010 at 9:12 PM

Is it really necessary to call Governor Palin such a demeaning name?

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:13 PM

I touched on this in the RomneyCare post, but I know Palin fans would be angry if we didn’t devote a separate post to the results. So here you go. Just proving our fair-and-balanced bona fides ahead of the inevitable Townhall/Hot Air presidential debate next year.

Allahpundit on November 11, 2010 at 6:40 pm

I have noticed since the discussion the other day that your Palin headlines have become markedly more favorable to her. There’s always some good and some bad in any poll so the headline can say just about anything. Allah no longer does the snarky look-for-the-worst bit. So yeah, that’s awesome, thanks. Don’t feel like you have to rose-color it, just don’t … well, poo-color it either.

alwaysfiredup on November 11, 2010 at 9:13 PM

silvernana on November 11, 2010 at 9:12 PM

Same thing happens every season. Viewers get a favorite and Keep him/her around past the point their talent would indicate. Kelly Osbourne and Cloris Leachman were the same way.

alwaysfiredup on November 11, 2010 at 9:15 PM

Yes, and she actually should have been gone two weeks ago if it was on her dancing. No way should she be in the semi-finals other than her mother’s fans keeping her in.

silvernana on November 11, 2010 at 9:12 PM

Bitter much?
Bristol’s worked very hard to stay on the show and it shows.
She is the contestant with the least experience performing in front of crowds, but she’s overcome that and her natural shyness and her dancing gets better with every week.
Maybe her mother’s “fans” have helped, but so what?

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:16 PM

Is it really necessary to call Governor Palin such a demeaning name?

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:13 PM

Lighten up Francine.

darwin-t on November 11, 2010 at 9:16 PM

Her favorability rating is highest in the Obama White House – their best hope to remain in Washington through 2016.

I like her, but she is not presidential, and it would make Delaware and Nevada look like nailbiters for GOP nominees.

churchill995 on November 11, 2010 at 9:16 PM

Lighten up Francine.

darwin-t on November 11, 2010 at 9:16 PM

She certainly deserves more respect than to be called such a name!
And no, I won’t lighten up about that.

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:18 PM

And say what you will, but her resume is perilously thin… especially in international affairs.

Sad, but bitterly true.

VastRightWingConspirator on November 11, 2010 at 6:58 PM

Yes, unlike the brilliant president we have now who has done so exceedingly well in international affairs. I know she wouldn’t be bowing to every dictator or apologizing to all these third world countries. I also know she loves her country.

silvernana on November 11, 2010 at 9:18 PM

Any time the word “ESTABLISHMENT” is used in connection with anyone from D.C. it’s a clue that what that really means is BIG GOVERNMENT PROGRESSIVE (Slower like the GOP or hyperspeed like the Dems prefer).

Either way it’s bigger federal government and shrinking personal liberty.

PappyD61 on November 11, 2010 at 9:19 PM

silvernana on November 11, 2010 at 9:12 PM

Nice post..Jennifer Grey should win it!..IMHO..:)

Dire Straits on November 11, 2010 at 9:20 PM

Her favorability rating is highest in the Obama White House – their best hope to remain in Washington through 2016.

Gee, I guess that’s why the Obamas have to be out of the country right after Sarah leads the Tea-nami election.
Have you seen the scrambling around the Democrats in Washington are still doing?

I like her, but she is not presidential, and it would make Delaware and Nevada look like nailbiters for GOP nominees.

churchill995 on November 11, 2010 at 9:16 PM

Sorry, but I have no idea what you’re talking about here…
and DE wasn’t close, but Sharron Angle d*mn near beat incumbent Harry Reid.

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:20 PM

She certainly deserves more respect than to be called such a name!
And no, I won’t lighten up about that.

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:18 PM

• . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . ,.-‘”. . . . . . . . . .“~.,
. . . . . . . .. . . . . .,.-”. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .“-.,
. . . . .. . . . . . ..,/. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ”:,
. . . . . . . .. .,?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .\,
. . . . . . . . . /. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,}
. . . . . . . . ./. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,:`^`.}
. . . . . . . ./. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,:”. . . ./
. . . . . . .?. . . __. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . :`. . . ./
. . . . . . . /__.(. . .“~-,_. . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,:`. . . .. ./
. . . . . . /(_. . ”~,_. . . ..“~,_. . . . . . . . . .,:`. . . . _/
. . . .. .{.._$;_. . .”=,_. . . .“-,_. . . ,.-~-,}, .~”; /. .. .}
. . .. . .((. . .*~_. . . .”=-._. . .“;,,./`. . /” . . . ./. .. ../
. . . .. . .\`~,. . ..“~.,. . . . . . . . . ..`. . .}. . . . . . ../
. . . . . .(. ..`=-,,. . . .`. . . . . . . . . . . ..(. . . ;_,,-”
. . . . . ../.`~,. . ..`-.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..\. . /\
. . . . . . \`~.*-,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..|,./…..\,__
,,_. . . . . }.>-._\. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .|. . . . . . ..`=~-,
. .. `=~-,_\_. . . `\,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .\
. . . . . . . . . .`=~-,,.\,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .\
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . `:,, . . . . . . . . . . . . . `\. . . . . . ..__
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .`=-,. . . . . . . . . .,%`>–

darwin-t on November 11, 2010 at 9:20 PM

Here’s the Hillbilly from Wasilly’s book tour
PappyD61 on November 11, 2010 at 9:12 PM

That’s not fair – I think she has most of her teeth.

Vashta.Nerada on November 11, 2010 at 9:21 PM

Dec. 1: Brentwood, Tenn.

PappyD61 on November 11, 2010 at 9:12 PM

Hey hey…

ddrintn on November 11, 2010 at 9:21 PM

Sarah is the defacto leader of the Tea party and the CONSERVATIVE movement to take our country back from the socialist/marxist/Progressives no matter what letter (D or R) is behind their name.

for every establishment RINO (Tokyo Rove, Brooks and Frum) that won’t support her she will attract two CONSERVATIVE Democrats and INDEPENDENTS who are tired of the Liberal theorists experiment with socialism!

She is THE leader because she is the ONLY ONE speaking up and carrying the fight to the Progressives on every policy point.

She is the ONLY ONE taking risks and her endorsements are pure gold.

The Blue Dogs were wiped out because they ran as CONSERVATIVES and voted with the socialists and the people who initially voted for their conservatism and then turned on them will find the welcoming arms of Sarah Palin to be just what this country needs at this time.

A reformer respective of neither party but intent on selling off the perks of office (Jets and Lobbyists, lavish salaries and benefits) and defending free enterprise, freedom of the individual, freedom of the States to enact their own philosophies and social mores, competition vs corporatism and protectionism!

Sarah has quietly been building her army and her bonifieds and has local politicians in every part of this country beholden to her pac and her support.

When she decides to run the true measure of her support will be seen as she calls on all to support the country she Loves and intends to serve and defend against the progressive degenerates and big government nannies!

dhunter on November 11, 2010 at 9:21 PM

Nice post..Jennifer Grey should win it!..IMHO..:)

Dire Straits on November 11, 2010 at 9:20 PM

No, she shouldn’t.
I’m sick of her “poor me” theatrics.
If anyone should win it besides Bristol, I’d go with Brandy.

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:21 PM

And say what you will, but her resume is perilously thin… especially in international affairs.

Sad, but bitterly true.

VastRightWingConspirator on November 11, 2010 at 6:58 PM
Yes, unlike the brilliant president we have now who has done so exceedingly well in international affairs. I know she wouldn’t be bowing to every dictator or apologizing to all these third world countries. I also know she loves her country.

silvernana on November 11, 2010 at 9:18 PM

Why do people bring up the clown in the White House for comparison purposes? That is no ringing endorsement, and it does nothing to make a convincing case for her. He is as bad a mistake as could have been made, and no excuse or rationale for any candidate.

churchill995 on November 11, 2010 at 9:22 PM

darwin-t on November 11, 2010 at 9:20 PM

Be the bandwidth hog with the picture of a face palm all you want, but calling her names like that only gets you moronic, trollish comments like this:

Here’s the Hillbilly from Wasilly’s book tour
PappyD61 on November 11, 2010 at 9:12 PM

That’s not fair – I think she has most of her teeth.

Vashta.Nerada on November 11, 2010 at 9:21 PM

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:23 PM

Why do people bring up the clown in the White House for comparison purposes? That is no ringing endorsement, and it does nothing to make a convincing case for her. He is as bad a mistake as could have been made, and no excuse or rationale for any candidate.

churchill995 on November 11, 2010 at 9:22 PM

Exactly – and voters in 2012 will go the opposite route.

Vashta.Nerada on November 11, 2010 at 9:23 PM

Nice post..Jennifer Grey should win it!..IMHO..:)

Dire Straits on November 11, 2010 at 9:20 PM

Can’t stand her. Such a Chudi, always on the cusp of debilitating injury but somehow fights her way back. Brandi is my girl this season.

alwaysfiredup on November 11, 2010 at 9:24 PM

Her favorability rating is highest in the Obama White House – their best hope to remain in Washington through 2016.
Gee, I guess that’s why the Obamas have to be out of the country right after Sarah leads the Tea-nami election.
Have you seen the scrambling around the Democrats in Washington are still doing?

I like her, but she is not presidential, and it would make Delaware and Nevada look like nailbiters for GOP nominees.

churchill995 on November 11, 2010 at 9:16 PM
Sorry, but I have no idea what you’re talking about here…
and DE wasn’t close, but Sharron Angle d*mn near beat incumbent Harry Reid.

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:20 PM

Jen, surely you can’t be serious. And of course DE wasn’t close, and NV wasn’t exactly a nailbiter, but I thought the drift was clear enough.

churchill995 on November 11, 2010 at 9:25 PM

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:21 PM

Brandy and Jennifer are the best dancers..IMHO but Bristol has done well for herself..:)

PS..JG has been whiny I agree..But she can dance..:)

Dire Straits on November 11, 2010 at 9:27 PM

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:23 PM

You my dear waste bandwidth with your curlish posts, I on other hand try to lighten things up. Time I found some place that you aren’t. TTFN

darwin-t on November 11, 2010 at 9:28 PM

Brandi is my girl this season.

alwaysfiredup on November 11, 2010 at 9:24 PM

Brandy could win it for sure..:)

Dire Straits on November 11, 2010 at 9:28 PM

Claim: You’re the one making baseless claims of Palin going third party when she has shown strong support for her Republican party.

MeatHeadinCA on November 11, 2010 at 7:41 PM

Exactly right MeatHead! In Michael Savage’s latest book he really knocks Sarah for sort of insisting that Tea Partiers need to pick a party. He said she was wrong but he missed the point. She knows that 3rd parties are NOT the way to go and that PRIMARIES are the places for these things to be sorted out. Savage and the person who says that Palin will be a third party both miss the point that the Republican Party..when it holds to its founding principles..SHOULD be the home of the Tea Party because Tea Party principles align with the solid planks of the Republican platform that Palin talks about ALL THE TIME. Contested primaries are the places that we hold our politicians to those principles. And when it doesn’t work out the first time..like in Delaware and (yikes) Alaska..it is clear that Palin’s position is to get up, dust yourself off, stick to our principles and say “We will get ‘em the next time”.

Dan Pet on November 11, 2010 at 9:29 PM

I thought the drift was clear enough.

churchill995 on November 11, 2010 at 9:25 PM

The only drift that was clear in NV was that 0bama called out the union dogs to get their votes in for Reid..or else.

Angle led almost every poll before last Tuesday and should have beaten him.

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:29 PM

You my dear waste bandwidth with your curlish posts,

darwin-t on November 11, 2010 at 9:28 PM

What are “curlish posts?”
Are they about hair or the sport of curling? I’m confused.

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:31 PM

BTW…..

Most of you probably already know this but the reference of “Hillbilly from Wasilly” is a tie back to the Alinsky rule about ridicule.

It was used by Obama during a interview with Anderson Cooper in September 2008 right after the Palin pick. The DOTUS was asked about Palin’s experience and Obama used the word (I believe it was purposeful) “WASILLY” to describe the town she was Mayor of previously. This was typical of the thuggery we saw in the 2008 campaign.

End of story.

PappyD61 on November 11, 2010 at 9:32 PM

What are “curlish posts?”
Are they about hair or the sport of curling? I’m confused.

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:31 PM

churlish
and you certainly are

darwin-t on November 11, 2010 at 9:34 PM

Don’t go Darwin…….

darwin-t on November 11, 2010 at 9:28 PM

PappyD61 on November 11, 2010 at 9:34 PM

PappyD61 on November 11, 2010 at 9:32 PM

I knew the story, it’s just that I don’t see it helping anybody to repeat Zero’s trash talk.
Do you?

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:34 PM

darwin-t on November 11, 2010 at 9:34 PM

Nope. You said “curlish.”
It lives in cyberspace that way forever more.

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:36 PM

The only drift that was clear in NV was that 0bama called out the union dogs to get their votes in for Reid..or else.

Angle led almost every poll before last Tuesday and should have beaten him.

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:29 PM

No dispute re the union dogs being called out, but even Rasmussen concedes his polling in NV was off. The Tea Party helped elect Rubio: Excellent! Let some other races, however, be a warning to next time get out and get stronger candidates than the Sharon Angle’s (she lost to a man with a 45-55 negative favorability rating among THOSE VOTING for crying out loud) and the Christine O’Donnell’s.

churchill995 on November 11, 2010 at 9:37 PM

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:36 PM

Duuuude…. Let’s not get ridiculous about typos now.

alwaysfiredup on November 11, 2010 at 9:39 PM

churchill995 on November 11, 2010 at 9:37 PM

CO’D was a lesson, not an example. There is such thing as a bridge too far in a GOP candidate. While the candidate has to be mainstream enough to win moderates, the candidate must also be principled enough to win conservatives.

alwaysfiredup on November 11, 2010 at 9:41 PM

Let some other races, however, be a warning to next time get out and get stronger candidates than the Sharon Angle’s (she lost to a man with a 45-55 negative favorability rating among THOSE VOTING for crying out loud) and the Christine O’Donnell’s.

churchill995 on November 11, 2010 at 9:37 PM

Sharon Angle won the GOP primary–what do you want?
And she gave Harry a scare.
O’Donnell’s another story, but Angle, O’Donnell, McMahon and Fiorina were all given the business by the MSM because they were conservative women.
Sarah Palin, Kelly Ayotte and Nikki Haley didn’t let the Media get away with their lies, but Angle, Fiorina, McMahon and O’Donnell did.

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:46 PM

churchill995 on November 11, 2010 at 9:37 PM
CO’D was a lesson, not an example. There is such thing as a bridge too far in a GOP candidate. While the candidate has to be mainstream enough to win moderates, the candidate must also be principled enough to win conservatives.

alwaysfiredup on November 11, 2010 at 9:41 PM”

I don’t think principles were the whole story there. When you being an ad with “I’m not a witch…”, well, I don’t think that requires elaboration.

churchill995 on November 11, 2010 at 9:47 PM

begin*

OT: Check out today’s bing.com. homepage.

Thought and emotion provoking.

God Bless Them and Theirs.

churchill995 on November 11, 2010 at 9:49 PM

Her favorability rating is highest in the Obama White House – their best hope to remain in Washington through 2016.

I like her, but she is not presidential, and it would make Delaware and Nevada look like nailbiters for GOP nominees.

churchill995 on November 11, 2010 at 9:16 PM

This is a rather foolish statement.

Name states that Bush won in 2004 that Palin would lose.

I don’t think there are any.

Brian1972 on November 11, 2010 at 9:54 PM

You’re looking through the wrong end of the telescope: voters are moving to Sarah because they’re looking for an alternative to Mittens

Eh, there’ll be plenty of alternatives to him.

Allahpundit on November 11, 2010 at 6:52 PM

His political epitaph. At the end of the day, I don’t think he offers any distinctive advantage to choose him over others. He’s just another politician. Not someone that people will want to put in power.

tom on November 11, 2010 at 9:54 PM

Bitter much?
Bristol’s worked very hard to stay on the show and it shows.
She is the contestant with the least experience performing in front of crowds, but she’s overcome that and her natural shyness and her dancing gets better with every week.
Maybe her mother’s “fans” have helped, but so what?

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:16 PM

Bitter? I gave an opinion based on what I see and I’ve watched the show from day one. I admire what she’s doing, but her dancing is not on the same level as the other three couples – that’s just being honest. I know you are the one who tolerates no criticism of Sarah Palin, but aren’t you carrying it a bit far?

silvernana on November 11, 2010 at 9:55 PM

churchill995 on November 11, 2010 at 9:47 PM

I don’t think the “true cons” were requiring too much in terms of principle. In a state like DE they’d have taken lip service if it was all they could get. They were willing to ignore an awful lot about Christine just because they liked what he said. Castle wouldn’t even give lip service, and instead was trumpeting his intent to compromise with Obama. He was actively giving the finger to conservatives. You can’t do that and win.

alwaysfiredup on November 11, 2010 at 9:56 PM

You gotta like Palin’s chances here. She has improved her national numbers, and gone into the lead in many states. Looking at the all the state primary polls, she is consistently in 1st or 2nd place in almost every state.

She obviously got a bump from the midterms (well-deserved) and her new TV show (which will be a huge hit) will portray her in a positive light and push the numbers even higher. Then her new book comes out, which will sell millions over the Holiday Season. Starting in early 2011, when most of the candidates will announce their bids, her lead will be solidified.

Interesting side note: Romney has taken a hit on InTrade after the election. Palin has inched up, while Gingrich, Thune, Pawlenty and especially Daniels has tanked.

It tells me that people are realizing Romney is getting weaker, and that any dark horse candidacy is hopeless.

Norwegian on November 11, 2010 at 9:58 PM

Bristol is still dancin’. Nuff said.

Kissmygrits on November 11, 2010 at 6:56 PM

Yes, and she actually should have been gone two weeks ago if it was on her dancing. No way should she be in the semi-finals other than her mother’s fans keeping her in.

silvernana on November 11, 2010 at 9:12 PM

Oh, the humanity!!

Sorry, can’t say I much care. If Bristol is still in, good for her!

tom on November 11, 2010 at 9:59 PM

This is a rather foolish statement.

Name states that Bush won in 2004 that Palin would lose.

I don’t think there are any.

Brian1972 on November 11, 2010 at 9:54 PM

Think what you want.

churchill995 on November 11, 2010 at 9:59 PM

. I know you are the one who tolerates no criticism of Sarah Palin, but aren’t you carrying it a bit far?

silvernana on November 11, 2010 at 9:55 PM

I tolerate no invalid criticism of Sarah Palin.
I did not state that Bristol should win DWTS, but that she’s worked hard to secure her place in the quarter finals and it’s not all down to her Mother’s “fans,” as you called them.

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 10:00 PM

silvernana on November 11, 2010 at 9:12 PM
Nice post..Jennifer Grey should win it!..IMHO..:)

Dire Straits on November 11, 2010 at 9:20 PM

Hi Straits: Gotta disagree with you – I think Brandy will win. I’m tired of Jennifer and her whining and walking out of practice every week and then coming out and dancing lights out. If you can’t do it, leave! That sounds rather harsh, doesn’t it? I guess the show is playing that up, but I think she likes the attention.

silvernana on November 11, 2010 at 10:02 PM

This is going to be great. The GOP nominate one of the few candidates that a majority of independents dislike (to say nothing of the Dems), spend a year arguing that all of the polls are biased and unworthy of consideration, lose the general election and then wonder ‘what happened’?

Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:02 PM

No way should she be in the semi-finals other than her mother’s fans keeping her in.

silvernana on November 11, 2010 at 9:12 PM

wow i always like to see liberals heads explode.

unseen on November 11, 2010 at 10:03 PM

This is a rather foolish statement.

Name states that Bush won in 2004 that Palin would lose.

I don’t think there are any.

Brian1972 on November 11, 2010 at 9:54 PM

Then why don’t you name states that Bush lost that Palin would win?

Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:04 PM

It was Huck’s people who screwed the pooch and got Miller off message, and yeah, leaked those emails.

This was around the same time Huck was bragging about his big win in Alaska.

This is why I have no respect for Huckabee. He is a dirt bag in every meaning of the word. A real snake in the grass. We’re going to have to watch him like a hawk watches chickens.

gary4205 on November 11, 2010 at 8:39 PM

How do you know this? Why are you and unseen so convined Miller turned on Palin and hooked up with Huckabee?

In regards to Huckabee he is happy with his Fox gig. He has no wealth to speak of and his income is derived from his show and his pension from Arkansas. He knows he can’t win the election so he won’t give this up. IMHO

CCRWM on November 11, 2010 at 10:04 PM

Think what you want.

churchill995 on November 11, 2010 at 9:59 PM

Suddenly your crystal ball to the future has grown cloudy?

Brian1972 on November 11, 2010 at 10:07 PM

Then why don’t you name states that Bush lost that Palin would win?

Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:04 PM

There don’t have to be any. Bush won the election.

That is the point.

Brian1972 on November 11, 2010 at 10:08 PM

silvernana on November 11, 2010 at 10:02 PM

You are right JG is a drama queen..:) The Finals should be interesting..:)

Dire Straits on November 11, 2010 at 10:09 PM

Then why don’t you name states that Bush lost that Palin would win?

Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:04 PM
There don’t have to be any. Bush won the election.

That is the point.

Brian1972 on November 11, 2010 at 10:08 PM

You’re right. Then name the states that McCain lost that Palin would win.

Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:11 PM

I tolerate no invalid criticism of Sarah Palin.
I did not state that Bristol should win DWTS, but that she’s worked hard to secure her place in the quarter finals and it’s not all down to her Mother’s “fans,” as you called them.

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 10:00 PM

Have you ever watched this show before? That’s how people who are not the best dancers stay on long past they should.
Since Bristol has no fans of her own, she is staying on because of her Mother’s fans. I am glad she is still on, but if a person is honest, she stayed on because of the voting, and two better dancers are gone. But good for her!

silvernana on November 11, 2010 at 10:11 PM

No way should she be in the semi-finals other than her mother’s fans keeping her in.

silvernana on November 11, 2010 at 9:12 PM

wow i always like to see liberals heads explode.

unseen on November 11, 2010 at 10:03 PM

What liberal are you talking about?

silvernana on November 11, 2010 at 10:15 PM

You’re right. Then name the states that McCain lost that Palin would win.

Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:11 PM

Well, look at the 2004 electoral vote map compared to the 2008 electoral vote map, and there ya go.

By the way, it is entirely possible that Wisconsin and Michigan are also on the table for Republicans in 2012.

Not to mention that several blue states are losing House seats which means electoral votes to red states like Texas gains 4, South Carolina gains 1, Georgia gains 1, and a couple of others. So the balance will be a little more favorable toward the red states in the 2012 presidential contest than it was in 2004 EV wise.

Brian1972 on November 11, 2010 at 10:17 PM

Brian, there is simply no way that Palin can carry all the states Bush did in 2004 with the way independents and Dems view her. Could things change? Sure. Is it likely? No, because people have looked at her and formed an opinion.

Don’t assume that MI or WI are wins in 2012 for the GOP. If the economy doesn’t turn around there, voters will probably end up throwing the GOP out after four years.

Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:22 PM

Brandi is my girl this season.

alwaysfiredup on November 11, 2010 at 9:24 PM
Brandy could win it for sure..:)

Dire Straits on November 11, 2010 at 9:28 PM

“Brandy, you’re a fine girl
What a good wife you would be
But my life, my lover, my lady
Is the sea”

–Who’s Brandy?

Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:27 PM

Some of you might remember a site called TEAMSARAH.

I hadn’t heard the story about this until this past week when I was looking for them on Facebook.

It seems that the Libs infiltrated the site and their goal was to drive others away from the site (the regular contributors). The Left posed as Conservatives and then would make racial slurs and such and play off each other. All in an attempt to destroy the site.

Note to self.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2009/01/team_sarah_infiltrated.asp

PappyD61 on November 11, 2010 at 10:32 PM

Brian, there is simply no way that Palin can carry all the states Bush did in 2004 with the way independents and Dems view her. Could things change? Sure. Is it likely? No, because people have looked at her and formed an opinion.

Don’t assume that MI or WI are wins in 2012 for the GOP. If the economy doesn’t turn around there, voters will probably end up throwing the GOP out after four years.

Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:22 PM

I would advise you not to assume the opposite of what you caution me not to assume.

She is a much better campaigner than people give her credit for. I have watched almost every event she has done since McCain introduced her in August of 2008, and she is a natural with a room full of people. I would say she is equal to or even better than Bill Clinton in raw political talent with a crowd.

If she gets going, she will be absolutely formidable.

This is why you hear people saying she should not run at all, because they are afraid of what she might be able to do, and that is liberals and conservatives who are on someone else’s train.

Do not make the mistake of writing her off as having no chance. She is actually the favorite, and if she wins the primaries one after the other, those victories go a long way to changing perceptions among the non-affiliated public, and even some will change teams.

It happened for Obama when he won Iowa. That was when everybody began to really start thinking he could knock off the Clinton machine in a serious way. That began the momentum.

Don’t underestimate this woman’s ability to overcome the odds. She has a history of doing that over and over again.

I’m not guaranteeing anything, just saying she ain’t no joke. The more her opponents think she is a joke, the harder they fall when she comes from out of nowhere and smites them down.

Brian1972 on November 11, 2010 at 10:33 PM

–Who’s Brandy?

Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:27 PM

She is a singer that is on DWTS show..:)

PS..Nice tune by Looking Glass..That is cool!..:)

Dire Straits on November 11, 2010 at 10:36 PM

We’ll see, Brian. A majority of the US has formed a negative opinion of her. It’s going to be very difficult to change those opinions.

Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:37 PM

If this pans out, congratulations in advance to President Obama for winning his much desired second term.

ncconservative on November 11, 2010 at 10:37 PM

She is a singer that is on DWTS show..:)

PS..Nice tune by Looking Glass..That is cool!..:)

Dire Straits on November 11, 2010 at 10:36 PM

You are, of course, Dire Straits.

What is DTWS?

Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:38 PM

Here’s the Hillbilly from Wasilly’s
PappyD61 on November 11, 2010 at 9:12 PM

Is it really necessary to call Governor Palin such a demeaning name?

Jenfidel on November 11, 2010 at 9:13 PM

Honestly, I really like it. It perfectly indicates that “PALIN IS ONE OF US”, something that you can’t say for Romney and the rest of the pack.

And that’s powerful. That is a badge of honor to get the votes of libertarian conservatives and many indies.

Look at Maine!

ALL THE PUNDITS ARE TRYING TO HIDE THE SIMPLE FACT: CENTRISTS ARE ACTUALLY ANTI-GOP ESTABLISHMENT. Exception: Elitist “centrists” in California.

PALIN, BEING A HILLBILLY, IS THEIR PERFECT CHOICE FOR GOP NOMINEE.

TheAlamos on November 11, 2010 at 10:39 PM

We’ll see, Brian. A majority of the US has formed a negative opinion of her. It’s going to be very difficult to change those opinions.

Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:37 PM

Crazier things have happened. Quite often.

Brian1972 on November 11, 2010 at 10:43 PM

You’re right. Then name the states that McCain lost that Palin would win.
Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:11 PM

I’d say probably Florida, NC, maybe Indiana and/or Ohio for starters…

cs89 on November 11, 2010 at 10:44 PM

lose the general election and then wonder ‘what happened’?

Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:02 PM

did you work for the carter admin? they were saying the exact samething in 1979 hmmm….

unseen on November 11, 2010 at 10:48 PM

You’re right. Then name the states that McCain lost that Palin would win.
Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:11 PM
I’d say probably Florida, NC, maybe Indiana and/or Ohio for starters…

cs89 on November 11, 2010 at 10:44 PM

Va

unseen on November 11, 2010 at 10:48 PM

You’re right. Then name the states that McCain lost that Palin would win.
Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:11 PM
I’d say probably Florida, NC, maybe Indiana and/or Ohio for starters…

cs89 on November 11, 2010 at 10:44 PM

Brian1972 on November 11, 2010 at 10:43 PM

Two years is a lifetime in politics. Let’s just talk about this in early fall, 2012. At this point, this makes as much sense as arguing about who’s going to win the February, 2013 Superbowl.

Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:49 PM

the harder they fall when she comes from out of nowhere and smites them down.

Brian1972 on November 11, 2010 at 10:33 PM

Like Ben from the Fed?

unseen on November 11, 2010 at 10:51 PM

What is DTWS?

Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:38 PM

Dancing with the Stars ..:)

Dire Straits on November 11, 2010 at 10:51 PM

Then why don’t you name states that Bush lost that Palin would win?

Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:04 PM

Florida. ;)

DWTS = Dancing With The Stars. Brandy = pop singer, former tv actress (“Moesha”).

alwaysfiredup on November 11, 2010 at 10:53 PM

Brian1972 on November 11, 2010 at 10:33 PM

With all due respect Brian, you are way off. She doesn’t have half the political acumen of a Marco Rubio or a Pat Toomey. She is only a slight improvement over a Sharon Angle. As we saw with VA, NJ, MA and the midterms, the GOP will need the independents to defeat Obama. I don’t care how well she plays to the base, she is too polarizing a figure to win over the majority of the independents. And to top it all off, she quit her post as governor and has gone on to make millions (I can see the attack ads now). Projections now are that the GOP could gain a few more seats in the Senate in 2012. They may even be able to knock off a couple more Lap Dogs (aka Blue Dogs) in the House (special thanks to Queen Pelosi for refusing to step down from her leadership post). If Palin is at the top of the ticket in 2012, it will be a very disappointing election cycle, I guarantee it.

ncconservative on November 11, 2010 at 10:53 PM

cs89 on November 11, 2010 at 10:44 PM

Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado, Massatoochits, New mexico and Washington.

remeber she will be running against Obama the guy who just ushered in the worst drubbing of a party since at least 1938 and maybe ever considering the state houses that flipped and governorships lost.

the country is tired of OBLaBlahs lies and deceit his overspending and class warfare his bowing to our enemies and pissing on our allies!

dhunter on November 11, 2010 at 10:53 PM

CCRWM on November 11, 2010 at 10:04 PM

just from keeping up with the election. many news stories about it.

unseen on November 11, 2010 at 10:54 PM

She doesn’t have half the political acumen of a Marco Rubio or a Pat Toomey.

Care to support that assertion?

alwaysfiredup on November 11, 2010 at 10:55 PM

If Palin is at the top of the ticket in 2012, it will be a very disappointing election cycle, I guarantee it.

ncconservative on November 11, 2010 at 10:53 PM

LOL…..rubio only knocked off one sitting Gov. Palin took out a sitting Gov and a former GOv in the same election…….Tommny? He lost how many times before his 2010 win again?

unseen on November 11, 2010 at 10:57 PM

Some of you might remember a site called TEAMSARAH.

I hadn’t heard the story about this until this past week when I was looking for them on Facebook.

It seems that the Libs infiltrated the site and their goal was to drive others away from the site (the regular contributors). The Left posed as Conservatives and then would make racial slurs and such and play off each other. All in an attempt to destroy the site.

Note to self.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2009/01/team_sarah_infiltrated.asp

PappyD61 on November 11, 2010 at 10:32 PM

This is a common tactic of the left and I’ve seen it here a little in HA except that when it’s tried the perpetrator is pounced on immediately by the regulars…we’re on to them. So what happened with TEAMSARAH? Did they get them off? I wonder what goes through a Lefty’s mind when they do this…does it ever occur to them that if they have to make it up they must be wrong?

CCRWM on November 11, 2010 at 10:57 PM

Jumbo, it is early. However, you asked the question.

What’s wrong, didn’t like the answer provided?

cs89 on November 11, 2010 at 10:58 PM

just from keeping up with the election. many news stories about it.

unseen on November 11, 2010 at 10:54 PM

I’ve never heard that and I’m in Los Angeles…

CCRWM on November 11, 2010 at 10:58 PM

Aargh, “Jimbo.”. Sorry.

cs89 on November 11, 2010 at 11:00 PM

she quit her post as governor and has gone on to make millions (I can see the attack ads now). Projections now are that the GOP could gain a few more seats in the Senate in 2012. They may even be able to knock off a couple more Lap Dogs (aka Blue Dogs) in the House (special thanks to Queen Pelosi for refusing to step down from her leadership post). If Palin is at the top of the ticket in 2012, it will be a very disappointing election cycle, I guarantee it.

ncconservative on November 11, 2010 at 10:53 PM

Seriously …and with all due respect…Is this all you guys have got? Concren trolls are concerned…

CCRWM on November 11, 2010 at 11:03 PM

she quit her post as governor and has gone on to make millions (I can see the attack ads now).

ncconservative on November 11, 2010 at 10:53 PM

Bud, she’s had every pseudo-”attack ad” you can think of thrown at her already.

ddrintn on November 11, 2010 at 11:12 PM

Seriously …and with all due respect…Is this all you guys have got? Concren trolls are concerned…

CCRWM on November 11, 2010 at 11:03 PM

How’s this:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101110/ap_on_el_pr/us_ap_poll_republicans

ncconservative on November 11, 2010 at 11:15 PM

How’s this:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101110/ap_on_el_pr/us_ap_poll_republicans

ncconservative on November 11, 2010 at 11:15 PM

Quick: who was the most polarizing in 1980 and 1984?

ddrintn on November 11, 2010 at 11:18 PM

If Palin is at the top of the ticket in 2012, it will be a very disappointing election cycle, I guarantee it.

ncconservative on November 11, 2010 at 10:53 PM

Another Kreskin the Magnificent.

You can’t guarantee anything anymore than I can, that’s why I didn’t. I’m only going on what I have seen with my own eyes.

When she gets to communicate with people directly, she invariably wins over most of them.

She will get plenty of chances to do that this next year and a half.

The issues and events of the last two years have drawn the country closer and closer to where she has been on the issues that matter to people. She won’t have to flip and flop, because the population is being driven to her positions by the liberals.

Just watch it unfold, I can promise you that she will exceed your current expectations, that much I am certain of.

Brian1972 on November 11, 2010 at 11:20 PM

^ In other words, those that take a stand are going to be “polarizing”. Those that don’t are going to be “losers”.

ddrintn on November 11, 2010 at 11:20 PM

How’s this:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101110/ap_on_el_pr/us_ap_poll_republicans

ncconservative on November 11, 2010 at 11:15 PM

From the very article you cite, how’s this:

The election, of course, is far away, and polls this early largely reflect name recognition and a snapshot of current popularity. A year before the last presidential election, the top names in public opinion polls were Rudy Giuliani for the Republicans and Hillary Rodham Clinton for the Democrats. Neither won their party’s nomination.

Remember the
Showdown of the Century
Hillary vs Rudy
This Time It’s Personal

It never even happened.

You can’t guarantee that anything will or won’t happen.

Brian1972 on November 11, 2010 at 11:24 PM

ncconservative on November 11, 2010 at 11:15 PM

Allah posted that poll already. The takeaway is that Palin’s ratings are going up and her unfavorables are going down. They aren’t set in stone, despite the number of people who say they have an opinion. Most people still think of Palin as she was portrayed in the 2008 election. She only had 2 months to make an impression. She will have much more time to win people over in 2012 and it’s probably going to work. Let’s look at her favorables after SPAK.

alwaysfiredup on November 11, 2010 at 11:25 PM

LOL…..rubio only knocked off one sitting Gov. Palin took out a sitting Gov and a former GOv in the same election…….Tommny? He lost how many times before his 2010 win again?

unseen on November 11, 2010 at 10:57 PM

What that be the 2006 race against Gov. Murkowski you’re referring to? When she was running in Alaska? When she wasn’t known outside of Alaska? When no opinions of her by the general public had been formed? You’re comparing that to a potential 2012 bid where she’d be one of the more well known candidates and also more polarizing? Give me a break. At this point in time, Rubio would have a better chance against Obama than Palin.

This isn’t about us, the base. I would vote for her, you obviously would too, and so would many of the readers here. But that’s not going to win the election. Independents have an unfavorable view of her. Coincidentally, independents will also decide who wins in 2012. She can’t win the independents, she won’t win the election.

ncconservative on November 11, 2010 at 11:26 PM

Brian1972 on November 11, 2010 at 11:24 PM

I really wanted a Hillary v. Rudy showdown for NY Governor this cycle, to fulfill those deferred dreams.

alwaysfiredup on November 11, 2010 at 11:27 PM

This isn’t about us, the base.

ncconservative on November 11, 2010 at 11:26 PM

Oh, yes it is. Ask John McCain how easy it is to win without the base. And McCain was just the guy to win over those precious independents. Remember? If the GOP gets stuck in this garbage of trying to choose candidates based on how independents and moderates think of them, they’re not going to win another presidential election for quite some time to come.

Also, independents aren’t a monolithic group. I’m an independent.

ddrintn on November 11, 2010 at 11:30 PM

We’ll see, Brian. A majority of the US has formed a negative opinion of her. It’s going to be very difficult to change those opinions.

Jimbo3 on November 11, 2010 at 10:37 PM
Crazier things have happened. Quite often.

Brian1972 on November 11, 2010 at 10:43 PM

That’s a real confidence builder.

churchill995 on November 11, 2010 at 11:33 PM

Also, independents aren’t a monolithic group. I’m an independent.

ddrintn on November 11, 2010 at 11:30 PM

I’m an independent. Right now the GOP interests me because that’s where the reformers are. If the refomers were Dems I’d still be a Dem. And Palin has the best reformer resume of them all.

alwaysfiredup on November 11, 2010 at 11:33 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4