The Post-Election House scorecard

posted at 4:00 pm on November 6, 2010 by Patrick Ishmael

What a night to be a Republican.

Below is the cheat sheet I posted Sunday, re-sorted from what I thought was most likely to flip to the GOP, to least likely, and updated with wins and losses. To summarize, I predicted that Republicans would gain a net of 63 seats, +/-3; by my count, Republicans have won 66 seats, have lost three, and may nab two more Democrat-held seats that are currently too-close-to-call (“2C2C”). So, 63 seats, with two potentially waiting in the wings. Analysis follows.

Republicans outperformed my predictions in Illinois, Texas, and Minnesota; they underperformed in Arizona, Kentucky, Oregon, and Georgia. So, a slight update is in order to accurately describe today’s state-by-state House delegation gains and losses, as compared to 2004. We’ve moved from this net outcome possibility: (red- net GOP gain over 2004, blue- net GOP loss, gray – no change)

To this:

The wins are still deep, and still likely to be enduring (as I’ve argued before.) Strong wins across the board, with lots of welcome surprises not demonstrated in this map. (For instance, Illinois now has a majority GOP delegation. Arizona’s delegation is now by my count five Republicans to three Democrats. Etc.) Depending on how the House race in CA-11 turns out, even California could turn a redder hue before this year’s map is complete.

The Republicans may not have done as well as we’d hoped in the Senate, but it’s these races in the House and those at the state level that are really the most destructive for Democrats. From Allahpundit’s post, a House Democrat close to Madam (for now) Speaker:

“I think it’s going to take us a while to get beyond this,” said a House Democrat close to Pelosi. “10 years, maybe 20 years. I don’t know if we’ll get back the majority while I’m here.”…

When the toll inflicted on Democrats in a state legislature is best described as a “bloodbath,” yes, there’s long term damage involved here. Erick Erickson notes:

There will be 18 states subject to reapportionment. The Republicans will control a majority of those — at least ten and maybe a dozen or more. More significantly, a minimum of seventeen state legislative houses have flipped to the Republican Party.

The North Carolina Legislature is Republican for the first time since 1870. Yes, that is Eighteen Seventy.

The Alabama Legislature is Republican for the first time since 1876.

For those saying this is nothing because it is the South, consider these:

The entire Wisconsin and New Hampshire legislatures have flipped to the GOP by wide margins.

The State Houses in Indiana, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Montana, and Colorado flipped to the GOP.

The Maine and Minnesota Senates flipped to the GOP.

Go to the link for the rest.

Can Republicans mess this windfall up? Sure. Do I assume they will? No. I think it is clear that Democrats have emerged as an urban, bi-coastal regional party whose influence has been decimated in the interior, and which will soon to be subjected to more damage when Census reapportionment and redistricting begins. The Blue Dogs have been vanquished. The San Francisco-style Democrat has prevailed, resulting in a Democrat caucus probably more liberal and narrow than it ever has been. A New York Times screenshot of the current House landscape helps to re-emphasize this point.

The Democratic Party is not dead and should not be taken lightly. It is undoubtedly alive. It’s just not altogether “well,” and probably won’t be for some time.

Update: So how many legislatures does the GOP control outright? Click here or the image for the breakdown.

This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
To see the comments on the original post, look here.


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Time to reform the districts into red ones

Kini on November 6, 2010 at 4:06 PM

The Progressives in both parties don’t care……..

Because they now have the mother of all controlling mechanisms………OBAMACARE.

PappyD61 on November 6, 2010 at 4:10 PM

That looks like 30 state legislatures controlled completely or at least partially by Republicans. 25 outright and 5 split. Amazing.

txmomof6 on November 6, 2010 at 4:15 PM

wow. I called it for 64 seats.

ted c on November 6, 2010 at 4:16 PM

voters also fired 3 Iowa Supreme Court justices after their ghey shenanigans against the will of the voters. Spoke with my dad about it and the next few justices that are up for reelection(?) just may suffer the same fate.

ted c on November 6, 2010 at 4:18 PM

We’re in the wilderness!

JammieWearingFool on November 6, 2010 at 4:27 PM

Our problem now is that some of that red is actually PURPLE!

Example; McStain and Gramnesty are PLUMS.

esnap on November 6, 2010 at 4:27 PM

So the scorecard is 57-35.

3 states undecided and 1 non-partisan. The 3 undecideds may well be Dems holding the 1 for each state, with Republicans trying to grab the undecided from this years election.

So it is likely 57-38 with 3 chambers undecided.

WoosterOh on November 6, 2010 at 4:29 PM

Then to take it a step further, Governors. 86-54.

WoosterOh on November 6, 2010 at 4:32 PM

The Dems are not a regional party, they are mostly an urban party. Since the NAACP and the GOP team up during redistricting because it benefits them both and the GOP have a lot of control over the process this time, guess what? The Dems due to population shifts will lose seats in urban areas making those they hold onto even more representative of minority groups because those districts will have to incorporate sections of non-minority urban areas in order to satisfy the NAACP and thus it will push the party further to the left. The Dems can’t win this battle because the Liberal judges they appointed will side with the NAACP and do not care about the gerrymandering it might take to carve these minority districts. I believe the Dems have brought this down on themselves – Shakespeare’s Hamlet is appropriate here; “For tis the sport to have the engineer Hoist with his own petar.”

Done That on November 6, 2010 at 4:42 PM

30 Years ago, the same message.

Key West Reader on November 6, 2010 at 5:08 PM

Here in Texas, we’re happy to be picking up another 4 house seats that will be applied to redistricting. The best part about getting those seats is that they are “leaving” the correct states, giving those northeast liberals less Congressional voice.

Gotta love it!

golfer1 on November 6, 2010 at 5:36 PM

The states that flipped to GOP should now try to make fundamental changes to the taxes such as switching from an income tax to a sales tax, changing gun laws to allow “shall issue” concealed carry permits, labor laws to “right to work” to improve the business climate, and education laws to make it easier to home school.

scrubjay on November 6, 2010 at 5:39 PM

Excellent work Patrick.

motionview on November 6, 2010 at 5:44 PM

Iowa has at least changed it’s gun laws to “shall Issue” and has been a “right to work” state for a long time. We also fired 3 progressive judges. It saddens me that we are still a purple state. 2012 is coming, I can see it from my front door. :o)

IowaWoman on November 6, 2010 at 5:54 PM

Foundations.

Key West Reader on November 6, 2010 at 5:59 PM

And 50 years ago.

Key West Reader on November 6, 2010 at 6:02 PM

If you add up the electoral votes in the 25 states where both chambers are now controlled by Republicans, you get 271 electoral votes.

If you add up the electoral votes in the 25 states where either the Democrats control both chambers (16), or where the legislatures are divided (5), or where it’s still undecided (3), or in nonpartisan Nebraska(1)–plus D.C.–you get 267 electoral votes.

Just saying.

Emperor Norton on November 6, 2010 at 6:07 PM

And, Finally, this.

Key West Reader on November 6, 2010 at 6:07 PM

Should have been Tuesday’s theme song

AZfederalist on November 6, 2010 at 6:39 PM

A Leftitst Utopia!

Key West Reader on November 6, 2010 at 6:43 PM

It warms my heart (and makes my food and beverage taste better) to see my home state of Maine in red on the legislature chart.

CHEERS TO ALL MY HA FRIENDS!

maineconservative on November 6, 2010 at 6:58 PM

Texas, our Texas, all hail the deep red state. (heh heh)

Lone Star on November 6, 2010 at 7:13 PM

Phil Hare lost. He’s the Sergeant Schulz impersonator.
Hank “Won’t Guam tip over?” Johnson won re-election.

justltl on November 6, 2010 at 8:43 PM

Bob “Who-er-yew?” Ethridge, Douchebag, N.C., lost.

justltl on November 6, 2010 at 8:47 PM

Bob “Who-er-yew?” Ethridge, Douchebag, N.C., lost.

justltl on November 6, 2010 at 8:47 PM

That is wonderful news!!.. :)

Dire Straits on November 6, 2010 at 8:52 PM

Bob “Who-er-yew?” Ethridge, Douchebag, N.C., lost.

justltl on November 6, 2010 at 8:47 PM
That is wonderful news!!.. :)

Dire Straits on November 6, 2010 at 8:52 PM

I thought he was demanding a recount and a bag of ballots had been found. Is that over?

bluemarlin on November 6, 2010 at 9:05 PM

Bob “Who-er-yew?” Ethridge, Douchebag, N.C., lost.

justltl on November 6, 2010 at 8:47 PM

Not yet

neuquenguy on November 6, 2010 at 10:11 PM

The recount is still on. See her web site urgent conservative update – renee ellmers recount for details.

scrubjay on November 6, 2010 at 10:15 PM

Damnation- I didn’t know about the Ethridge recount.
How many other races are the rat bastards trying to steal?

justltl on November 6, 2010 at 10:44 PM

I just want to say that Ellmers is looking for cash for the recount, if she wins, I think her opponent has to pay for it. Just the fact her attorney is asking for money up front is being a team player. She needs to find other representation.

WoosterOh on November 7, 2010 at 1:11 AM

I went to check on the vote count for the Ellmers race. I cant believe they had to have a ballot measure for

Prevent felons from being elected sheriff
Yes 85.0%
No 15.0%

Looks like 15% are the Dems and Felons, well, that is being redundant.

WoosterOh on November 7, 2010 at 1:18 AM

California is not beyond redemption yet. Steve Cooley (R) – 3,560,695 has pulled ahead of Kamala D. Harris (D) 3,537,728 in the latest tally for state attorney general.

scrubjay on November 7, 2010 at 2:02 AM

My congressman for the moment is John Hall (D) NY-19. (NY-19 covers the US Military Academy) John was a member of the band Orleans famous for “Still the one” and “Dance with me”. He took the company line on all the issues.
In the final days of the campaign the coup de gras were lawn signs, black with white letters: John Hall Kills Jobs.
-
John never got the message and is no longer “Still the one”.

diogenes on November 7, 2010 at 6:15 AM

The Democratic Party is not dead and should not be taken lightly. It is undoubtedly alive. It’s just not altogether “well,” and probably won’t be for some time.

And that’s makes them dangerous. They’re just like an injured animal lashing out at anyone coming near it.

mizflame98 on November 7, 2010 at 7:51 AM

I love how here in NH we’ve essentially made our Governor a lame duck this year — both House and Senate are red this year, but Gov. Lynch still managed to get elected, even AFTER passing a law that would let criminals out 8 months before their scheduled time to “adjust” to society through programs that are not in place right now, and only allowing 90 days back in jail for parole violations. This included some pretty violent criminals that were released and flat out told the parole board that they weren’t going to follow the rules if released.

ScoopPC11 on November 7, 2010 at 7:53 AM