Wave II coming in 2012?

posted at 11:35 am on November 4, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

If Democrats thought this past Tuesday was bad, wait for 2012, The Hill warns.  Thanks to the big pickup for Democrats in 2006 for the Senate, they have to defend a lot more seats in the next cycle than they did in 2010.  Republicans may have an easy opportunity to grab control of the upper chamber, but a few things have to fall in place first:

For the first time in two cycles, Democrats will have more seats up for grabs than the Republicans, and the party could see its shrunken majority erased altogether.

Several of the senators up for reelection came in on the 2006 Democratic wave, when the party picked up six GOP seats and won control of the chamber.

Sens. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.), Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Jim Webb (D-Va.) defeated GOP incumbents that year but will have to win reelection in 2012.

And two senators who won special elections Tuesday, Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.), will face voters again in two years.

In January, Obama assured Democrats that the midterms wouldn’t be anything like 1994 because, as he said, “You’ve got me!”  In 2012, that will be more the case.  Obama will have to go on the stump, and that along with the usual stakes in presidential elections will boost voter turnout for Democrats in the next cycle.  That may tend to mitigate some of the potential losses, especially in places like New York and Rhode Island.

However, those aren’t the seats that Democrats fear losing.  Obama had to limit his campaigning in this cycle mainly to deep-blue House districts in order to keep from damaging the prospects of Democratic incumbents.  He won’t be any help to Tester in Montana nor to Brown in Ohio, which Obama will almost certainly lose now in the 2012 election after winning it in 2008.  He will also have to campaign hard in Pennsylvania because a Democratic presidential candidate simply can’t afford to lose that state, and his heavy campaigning there resulted in the state flipping entire red in this election.

If the economy improves markedly, Obama will have an easier time protecting himself and his Senate delegation, of course.  However, the consensus among economists is that the current stagnation will extend all the way through 2011, and at the moment no one sees any reason why 2012 will stage breakout growth.  That means joblessness will remain high, and voter anger will do the same.  Under those conditions, Democrats may lose a relatively small number of House seats (since they lost the most vulnerable seats already) but could lose a slew of Senate seats and give the GOP a large majority in the upper chamber.  If that happens, then it will likely be accompanied by a change of Presidents as well.


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Our President has a coconut phobia.

Coconuts removed from trees in preparation for Barack Obama’s India trip

Oil Can on November 4, 2010 at 11:42 AM

Forget the coconuts…how does this idiot justify spending $200 million per day on this junket to India??? Isn’t someone in power questioning the sanity of this? Of course, the dems still have some power, but not for long. I am actually surprised that no one has raised a big, fat stink over this, as people stand in line for jobs and food. What a !@#@@!# jerk.

chai on November 4, 2010 at 12:50 PM

Sens. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.), Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Jim Webb (D-Va.) defeated GOP incumbents that year but will have to win reelection in 2012.

McCaskill, Tester, and Webb all won by VERY NARROW margins in 2006 in states that Bush won in 2004, and Ohio will probably turn red in 2012. Also, Ben Nelson (NE) will probably be very vulnerable for his ObamaCare vote, and Mary Landrieu (LA) will be vulnerable due to Obama’s bungling of the Gulf oil spill, especially if she is challenged by Gov. Bobby Jindal. Another potential low-hanging fruit is Bill Nelson in FL, who could be vulnerable if Rubio performs well as a Senator, and Nelson is challenged by Jeb Bush. Then, somebody needs to challenge Tim Johnson in SD, who also voted for ObamaCare.

Every Democrat in the Senate voted for ObamaCare, and McConnell needs to use this as a club against them. Speaker-elect John Boehner has made it clear that he wants to repeal ObamaCare or, failing that, repeal its worst provisions. These bills will be coming out of the House regularly next year, and McConnell needs to tell vulnerable Senate Democrats: “either vote with us to repeal, or your opponent in 2012 will campaign against your vote”, and watch ‘em squirm!

Steve Z on November 4, 2010 at 12:51 PM

Don’t get cocky.

Chris of Rights on November 4, 2010 at 12:55 PM

I’d love to see the look on Sherrod Brown’s face when he saw that basically the entire state of Ohio, outside of 5 gerrymandered House districts, turned a deep crimson on Tuesday. See that Sword of Damocles, Sherrod? Stand right under it, buddy.

Good Solid B-Plus on November 4, 2010 at 12:13 PM

That would have been nice. The concern I have here in Ohio is that I don’t know that we have a decent candidate to run against him. Sadly, now that DeWine has won a statewide race, he probably wants to step up in 2012. And he’s a weasel. Are you aware of anyone? I think we exhausted our supply of electable people on Tuesday (Portman and Kasich). Husted seems capable, but I want him chasing down voter fraud before 2012, not campaigning.

I’m at a loss.

BuckeyeSam on November 4, 2010 at 12:56 PM

This time, we were scrambling to put together a resistance, against the time it took for more & more people to realize what we were dealing with.

Next time, we have the start of a ground game, and the full 2 years.

Here in CA, we have just about every place except the cities. We need to brainstorm and strategize how to make inroads on the blue areas.

jodetoad on November 4, 2010 at 12:57 PM

“11/6/12″

The movie trailer begins….Ominous Kraaken type music opens from a black screen.

Politician look a likes pull themselves up off the freshly drenched beach. All of them soaked to the gills.

The leader of the group a big eared tanned fellow tells the bespectled older gentleman and the Pelosi look-a-like. “My gosh, I’m glad you had me”. The older gentleman and the gal nod approvingly as the warm morning sun shines on their faces (you see several hundred soaked politicians behind them on the beach and some closer to shore).

You can see that they just survived a horror……….but then………

the camera pans to show the sunlit faces of Pelosi and Reid you can see the shadow of the sun on their cheeks but slowly a dark shadow rises up.

Starting at their chins, and you hear the rush of water, a vacuuming sound…..and the look on their faces turns to terror as they tell their leader who faces them……”Turn around Mr. President!“.

There it is. The camera pans back from Obama’s face and shows the backs of the hundreds of survivors of the first Voter wave.

The Camera shows the sun disappearing behind the wave and the picture goes pitch black as you hear the wave crashing on shore and the yells of politicians by the score, Progressives all, as they are swept out to sea or tossed onto the shore of Unemployment.

The black screen reveals the words…….TEANAMI II

…..11/6/12

PappyD61 on November 4, 2010 at 12:58 PM

Bill Nelson is about as popular as syphilis here in FL. If the GOP can find a half-way decent candidate, he’s toast.

Jeb Bush. While the Bush name is still somewhat radioactive nationally, most Florida voters still think he did a great job as Governor, and would gladly vote him into the Senate.

Since Crist “toasted” himself, why not go for his predecessor?

Steve Z on November 4, 2010 at 1:01 PM

Jeb Bush. While the Bush name is still somewhat radioactive nationally, most Florida voters still think he did a great job as Governor, and would gladly vote him into the Senate.

Since Crist “toasted” himself, why not go for his predecessor?

Steve Z on November 4, 2010 at 1:01 PM

Jeb, I think, would be a lock. But is he inclined to run? Maybe by then, with the prospect of a GOP majority and the ability to be a player on the majority side, he might be ready to get back in the game. I think he’d be a great senator.

BuckeyeSam on November 4, 2010 at 1:09 PM

He will also have to campaign hard in Pennsylvania because a Democratic presidential candidate simply can’t afford to lose that state, and his heavy campaigning there resulted in the state flipping entire red in this election.

Another great reason to keep the electoral college. Otherwise Democrat candidates would never be seen outside a few urban precincts that have enough padding on their voter lists to get to 50% of the country.

pedestrian on November 4, 2010 at 1:13 PM

Not sure if anyone mentioned this already- but while the Dems may have already lost their most vulnerable seats in the House in this cycle, how many long-serving Progressives will suddenly retire (replaced by a very junior and subsequently more vulnerable Democrat) or decide to retire in ’12?

And then there’s redistricting through newly-elected GOP governor’s. Is it possible there will still be a significant number of Dems vulnerable in two years?

BKeyser on November 4, 2010 at 1:16 PM

When people fill out their tax forms on April 15, 2012, only then will they become aware of the impact of the ending of the Bush tax cuts.

We need to make ABSOLUTELY sure that the Democrats are not able to spin that as the fault of this new Congress. The blame for that needs to be placed SQUARELY on this current Congress and the Senate Democrats who will likely block any attempt to reinstate those tax cuts.

The Democrats are going to attempt to blame this Republican Congress for those tax increases since people will not see them until 2012.

We can’t let that happen.

crosspatch on November 4, 2010 at 1:16 PM

while the Dems may have already lost their most vulnerable seats in the House in this cycle, how many long-serving Progressives will suddenly retire (replaced by a very junior and subsequently more vulnerable Democrat) or decide to retire in ’12?

And then there’s redistricting through newly-elected GOP governor’s. Is it possible there will still be a significant number of Dems vulnerable in two years?

BKeyser on November 4, 2010 at 1:16 PM

Yes to both. Several dems in their 60s and 70s, seeing that the house will stay red for at least four to six years, are going to retire. Add to that, states like Ohio and Pennsylvania are going to lose house seats to reapportionment, and the GOP just took control in them.

Vashta.Nerada on November 4, 2010 at 1:36 PM

A lot can happen in two years. Look at where the Democrats were two years ago.

Let’s just keep our nose to the grindstone, get some work done, and worry about 2012 late next year.

hawksruleva on November 4, 2010 at 1:38 PM

Here in CA, we have just about every place except the cities. We need to brainstorm and strategize how to make inroads on the blue areas.

jodetoad on November 4, 2010 at 12:57 PM

We need to stop being afraid of the truth about the difference between liberalism and conservatism. Conservatism believes in individuals. We don’t do policies for the rich, or the poor, or the black, or the women. Our policies will work for anyone.

The truth about liberalism? It fails. Conservatives in California should put up billboards showing the latest companies that have fled to Texas, with it’s low taxes and friendly working environment. They should run ads with scenes from Detroit, saying “coming soon to your California city”. And conservatives should highlight the selfishness that permeates liberalism. When government starts handing out money, it becomes a big fight over who gets the dollars.

hawksruleva on November 4, 2010 at 1:45 PM

The GOP is going to have to navigate some landmines like the end of unemployment benefits. They will have to make an argument that this is what needs to be done to save the country. When has the GOP ever got that right?

DFCtomm on November 4, 2010 at 1:47 PM

Michigan loses a seat in 2012 and it is expected that the district that disappears will come from around the Detroit area. While there will no longer be a 15th District, that doesn’t mean John Dingell will get the short end of the re-apportionment stick.

ya2daup on November 4, 2010 at 1:59 PM

“If the economy improves markedly … “

An excellent point. We need to carefully analyse all the looming events that could have an effect on the 2012 election.

For instance: what if the aliens from Andromeda Galaxy unexpectedly arrive a few decades early?

RedPepper on November 4, 2010 at 2:13 PM

OT: Palin wrote a great piece on the mid terms! http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/252477/midterms-lessons-learned-and-way-forward-sarah-palin?page=1

Cookies Mom on November 4, 2010 at 2:15 PM

If 2010 state elections are any indicator, the Senate is going to be a slaughterhouse.

The mid-west, now having passed the “Rust Belt” label to New England, looks to get even redder in 2012 so here’s four for the chopping block in 2012:

Stabenow, Michigan
Casey, Penn.
Brown, Ohio
Kohl, Wis.

With the GOP in control of those states, I doubt we’ll see the usual Dem trickery succeed where used to.

In other words, I guy with a bat at a polling station is going to be removed, regardless of what Eric Holder thinks.

Ohio “New Voter Drives”?

Not so fast, union scum/ACORN/MoveOn!

So that’s four for the money.

I defer to The Captain on what the ground looks like in Minnesota and whether or not the Dems can steal another Senate election there to save Klobuchar.

Into The West…

Nelson’s been a goner since he cast his vote for ObamaCare.

The Cornhusker Kickback wasn’t even going to save him.

John Tester, Montana.

This isn’t what the people of Montana signed up for when they elected him by a mere .9% vote. I’ve heard that mega-popular Montana House rep Denny Rehberg (Who actually has to win a statewide election for his house seat…and has done it pretty well six straight times) is already looking into it.

Put it in the book.

Kent Conrad…(see Dorgan, Byron. No really, he’s thinking retirement too!)

And another one gone, another one gone…

Claire McCaskill, Missouri…Saw how red Missou got this year. Not even a “St. Louis Miracle” will save her.

Another log on the fire!

Here’s a stealth pick: Jeff Bingham, New Mexico.

It’s a long shot, but New Mexico just elected a GOP governor by a convincing 54-46 margin.

I think Bingham can be beaten in 2012 with the right candidate, so put him in the maybe pile.

Down South…

Webb: Goner.

That puts us a 9 flips.

But wait, there’s more!

If Bill Nelson really is as popular as syphalis (as someone said elsewhere) then he’s another potential target. Florida’s kinda sketchy in the big elections though, so Tom Foolery may save him.

Make him a maybe.

Joe Manchin has to run again in 2012.

In 2012, he may want to consider running for re-election as a Republican.

If he wants to end up chairing anything, at least.

9 Flips, 3 Maybes and 1 possible party switch.

The rest of the Dem seats are:

Feinstein
Deleware
Akaka
Maryland
Menendez (Vulnerable only if The Fat Man decides beating up the New Jersey Teachers Union is chump change if he can get to DC and beat up the NEA…which I would, in fact, pay to see him do.)
Gillibrand
Rhode Island
Cantwell
Lieberman
and Comrade Sanders

In other words: No chance.

Time To Primary:

Snowe
Hatch
Hutchinson

We lose Snowe, I don’t care. Better a Dem cast a Dem vote than a Republican.

Hatch and Hutch.

It’s Texas and Utah.

What, like there’s a chance in hell they’re electing Dems?

So, we retain 45 of 46 and add 9-13 Seats.

I caution that we might lose Ensign to the Vegas Machine (Lesson learned: Find your action elsewhere…Like Michigan! Sweet, sweet, blood red Michigan…) so that be 44, and max pick up plus Manchin shuffle gives us 57.

One for each state.

Compound that with those house seats Dems are going to lose through re-districting in all those states the GOP now controls and President elect…

Well, I like the look of the congress they’ll have to work with.

SuperCool on November 4, 2010 at 3:58 PM

If that happens, then it will likely be accompanied by a change of Presidents as well.

snap!

ted c on November 4, 2010 at 4:21 PM

Let ‘em go. By 2012, the Democrats will have beaten themselves.

Mr. Grump on November 4, 2010 at 4:23 PM

Don’t forget Nelson in Fla. He was on the radio the other day saying Floridians would be too busy with all the other races in 012 to pay attention to one senator. His elitist attitude, dismissively patronizing form letters and Obamacare vote despite vehement local opposition should end his career. Pity he will get to sponge off the retirement funds for years to come. 2012 can’t come soon enough.

Rea1ityCheck on November 5, 2010 at 11:44 PM

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