Gallup: Unemployment likely up in October

posted at 10:12 am on November 4, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Tomorrow, the Department of Labor will release its estimate of unemployment for October, and Gallup says to prepare for an increase from the current 9.6% to as high as 9.9%.  The news isn’t all bad, though, as Gallup says that the DOL calculations will miss a small hiring binge at the end of the month, although that doesn’t take into account seasonal adjustments:

Gallup analysis suggests the October unemployment rate that the government reports on Friday will be in the 9.7% to 9.9% range. This is despite the fact that unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, fell sharply to 9.4% at the end of October — down from10.0% in mid-October and 10.1% at the end of September. Most of this drop took place after the official Labor Department measurement period, suggesting the government’s October report may not pick up this late-month decline.

The sharp drop in Gallup’s unemployment rate in late October was driven in part by an improvement in the employment situation among men, as their unemployment rate fell by more than one percentage point. The unemployment rate among women was essentially unchanged. Unemployment among those aged 18 to 29 in October was 13.8%, an improvement of two points.

We saw the same trend in reverse in September, when a late-month drop in employment got missed by the DOL in their October release.  However, one has to consider that the seasonal adjustments used by Labor will already take this into account.  Retailers and others often start adding to staff in late October and early November to prepare for the Christmas shopping season, and Gallup’s unadjusted figures may be reflecting that rather than an actual, seasonally-adjusted increase in less seasonal hiring.

The news doesn’t get much better, either.  Overall unemployment was higher in the second quarter of this year than in 2009Q2, according to a new report by Labor, and the average length of unemployment has increased sharply over the past year of “recovery” (h/t DogSoldier):

The number of long-term unemployed workers has increased sharply since the recession began in December 2007.1 In the second quarter of 2010, about 46 percent of the 14.6 million unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or longer and about 31 percent were unemployed for 52 weeks or longer. This report focuses on the latter group – those who have been jobless for a year or more.2

The number of persons jobless for a year or more rose from 645,000 in the second quarter of 2007 to 4.5 million in the second quarter of 2010. The group’s share of total unemployment jumped from 9.5 percent to a record high of 30.9 percent. (See chart 1.) As a share of the labor force, the proportion jobless for a year or longer rose from 0.4 percent in the second quarter of 2007 to 2.9 percent in the second quarter of 2010, also a record high for the series. (See chart 2.) Some researchers have attributed the rise in long-term unemployment to the tendency of firms to hire individuals who have been jobless for shorter durations first, thus increasing the share of unemployed persons who have been jobless for very long periods.3 Others have found that declining worker turnover rates have led to increased unemployment durations for those workers who involuntarily lost their job during the recent recession.4 It also has been suggested that the availability of extended unemployment insurance benefits has contributed to the increase in unemployment duration, although some researchers have argued that the extension of unemployment benefits has had a limited impact on unemployment duration in the recent recession.5

The DOL couches its analysis in a three-year perspective, but their chart shows that the problem continued to grow from summer 2009 to “Recovery Summer”:

We’re not putting America back to work.  If anything, we’re extending the misery.  The number of unemployed rose from 2009Q2 to 2010Q2, and that doesn’ take into account all of those who came of working-adult age during that period — approximately 1.2 million more Americans.

Finally, after a drop last week, initial job claims rose again to remain firmly in the narrow and high 2010 range.  Reuters, of course, found this mildly surprising:

New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, government data showed on Thursday, underlining the persistent weakness in the labor market.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 457,000, the Labor Department said, reversing the prior week’s decline.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 443,000 from the previously reported 434,000. The government revised the prior week’s figure up to 437,000.

Just as we have seen all year long, the economy is not creating jobs in sufficient quantity to absorb worker turnover.  We have been at this level consistently over the last 12 months now, indicating economic stagnation at almost zero-growth levels.   If that surprises Reuters, then they need new prognosticators.


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That’s ok. Barry can blame the GOP now that they won the House. Oh, they don’t take control til January? Shhh, don’t tell his supporters.

Doughboy on November 4, 2010 at 10:15 AM

That crazy Bush just won’t let go of the economy.

Vashta.Nerada on November 4, 2010 at 10:16 AM

Do these figures include the sharp increase in unemployment experienced by some in the political sector on November 2nd?

PackerBronco on November 4, 2010 at 10:17 AM

This is obviously the fault of every Republican who won their election on Tuesday.

Bishop on November 4, 2010 at 10:18 AM

BTW, how is the second round of “quantitative easing” gonna effect all this? I can’t imagine the results will be positive.

Doughboy on November 4, 2010 at 10:19 AM

Nobody panic. Calm down! Breathe!!!!!

This news, in no way will affect the Obama’s vacation…errr government trip that will cost us $2billion over 10 days.

So no worries. Everything is juuuuuuuuuust fine!

*sigh*

capejasmine on November 4, 2010 at 10:19 AM

Good news, I have a new temporary job proctoring tests to all those evil mortgage brokers who must now have national and individual state certifications so that they don’t sucker anymore home buyers.

Cindy Munford on November 4, 2010 at 10:19 AM

That slight bump in hiring may be attributed to retail prep for the holidays.

Part time short term retail help will probably finish up by mid December.

Read another piece a few days ago the ranks of the 99rs will increase by 1.2 million (perhaps as many as 2 million) before the end of the year.

dogsoldier on November 4, 2010 at 10:20 AM

Will the November figures crash even more, with thousands of political consultants and pollsters suddenly no longer needed?

jwolf on November 4, 2010 at 10:21 AM

At least 14 million out of work, over four million looking for work for at least a year, and congress couldn’t even pass a budget over the same period.

Vashta.Nerada on November 4, 2010 at 10:21 AM

Let’s get back to what’s REALLY important.

Do you think we’ll get to see Michelle’s podunkadunk in a sari? Huh? Huh? Do ya? LOL

capejasmine on November 4, 2010 at 10:22 AM

capejasmine on November 4, 2010 at 10:19 AM

I sent Ed a tip on a staggering update to that story.

He’s bringing 34 warships and over 80 cars. The retinue has booked approximately 800 rooms at the Taj Palace and Hyatt hotels….

dogsoldier on November 4, 2010 at 10:23 AM

Good news, I have a new temporary job proctoring tests to all those evil mortgage brokers who must now have national and individual state certifications so that they don’t sucker anymore home buyers.

Cindy Munford on November 4, 2010 at 10:19 AM

Congratulations.

myrenovations on November 4, 2010 at 10:23 AM

Vashta.Nerada on November 4, 2010 at 10:21 AM

It’s closer to 30 million unemployed than 14. They haven’t done a census on the 99rs.

dogsoldier on November 4, 2010 at 10:24 AM

Cindy Munford on November 4, 2010 at 10:19 AM

Congrats, Cindy!

dogsoldier on November 4, 2010 at 10:25 AM

dogsoldier on November 4, 2010 at 10:23 AM

I’ve read that too, and this morning on a local radio program, they were saying that there will be a 1 mile radius around Obama at all times. Meaning the Secret Service, and India’s local PD’s have to maintain this at all times for the Obama’s.

A 1 mile radius. Where are they going to put all those people? This is absolutely insane. India’s gonna be mighty p!ssed off, when this is all said, and done.

capejasmine on November 4, 2010 at 10:25 AM

Cindy Munford on November 4, 2010 at 10:19 AM

Congratulations from me too!!! :)

capejasmine on November 4, 2010 at 10:26 AM

It’s closer to 30 million unemployed than 14. They haven’t done a census on the 99rs.

dogsoldier on November 4, 2010 at 10:24 AM

I know, but even using their own flawed numbers, they should be embarrased.

Vashta.Nerada on November 4, 2010 at 10:27 AM

Good news, I have a new temporary job proctoring tests to all those evil mortgage brokers who must now have national and individual state certifications so that they don’t sucker anymore home buyers.

Cindy Munford on November 4, 2010 at 10:19 AM

Good deal. Congrats.

Vashta.Nerada on November 4, 2010 at 10:28 AM

Yes, but didn’t Obama lose the midterms by saving Capitalism or something?

Chip on November 4, 2010 at 10:29 AM

Thanks everyone! The only downside is that I am finding out first hand that my former job, which I liked a lot, was so wonderful that it isn’t likely to be duplicated. Oh well, money is money as long as it is honestly earned.

Cindy Munford on November 4, 2010 at 10:29 AM

I thought for every fired democrat there was a hired republican, should have been a wash.

anikol on November 4, 2010 at 10:31 AM

Vashta.Nerada on November 4, 2010 at 10:27 AM

Y’know, I don’t think they really care. When pressed on it they abdicate responsibility for this mess by blaming the one person who could do little about it from 2007 on, namely Bush.

The ignorant arrogant dems created this mess and seem determined to prolong it.

dogsoldier on November 4, 2010 at 10:32 AM

capejasmine on November 4, 2010 at 10:19 AM

I sent Ed a tip on a staggering update to that story.
He’s bringing 34 warships and over 80 cars. The retinue has booked approximately 800 rooms at the Taj Palace and Hyatt hotels….
dogsoldier on November 4, 2010 at 10:23 AM

But it’ll be a minimal carbon-footprint no doubt.

Chip on November 4, 2010 at 10:32 AM

WHAT?!? I thought the Republican House was going to fix this! I think we need to vote the Dems back in again.

LOL, but this is what I am sure some liberals are saying.

jeffn21 on November 4, 2010 at 10:34 AM

Bishop on November 4, 2010 at 10:18 AM

They’ve been in office two days, dammit! Why haven’t they solved this?

We need the Democrats back in office . . . give them another 2 years and they’ll be at the point where they can make creative excuses again.

NoDonkey on November 4, 2010 at 10:35 AM

Upside: Obama created or saved dozens of Republican congressional jobs.

JammieWearingFool on November 4, 2010 at 10:36 AM

All will be fine once the evil tax cuts expire since they caused the recession in the first place.

/

mankai on November 4, 2010 at 10:37 AM

Good news, I have a new temporary job proctoring tests to all those evil mortgage brokers who must now have national and individual state certifications so that they don’t sucker anymore home buyers.

Cindy Munford on November 4, 2010 at 10:19 AM

Congrats!!!

So as soon as they are certified, are they suddenly less evil or do they get better at hiding their tracks?

I work in education so I know about people learning how to game the system.

Lily on November 4, 2010 at 10:45 AM

DOL calculations will miss a small hiring binge at the end of the month

Temp hiting binge: Democrat voters and Democrat bus drivers were in high demand over the last week or so in Vegas, Chicago, Seattle, Philly….

forest on November 4, 2010 at 10:46 AM

I think that if the patient was recovering… you might be looking at the doctor as hero… rather than a Zero.
-

RalphyBoy on November 4, 2010 at 10:47 AM

There should be a small economic boom in one sector… All the media outlets must have had a descent October with all the hundreds of millions of dollars sent their way, no?

The lefties decried the Citizens United stuff earlier this year. As we got closer to the election, the mountains of cash that came their way sure shut them all the **** up quick!

maineconservative on November 4, 2010 at 10:49 AM

We had anemic GDP growth with high, stagnant unemployment after an accute recession from 1933-1937 too. Were just calling it a “sluggish recovery” this time. Back then is was called a “depression”.

forest on November 4, 2010 at 10:49 AM

We’re not putting America back to work. If anything, we’re extending the misery.

Welcome to Valley Forge. We’re making history here. One way or another.

Skandia Recluse on November 4, 2010 at 10:53 AM

Keith Olbermann tried to blame this on…the GOP Congress that hasn’t been seated and won’t be until January.

Because he’s smart like that.

Good Lt on November 4, 2010 at 10:55 AM

Unemployment going to hold steady at 10% for the foreseeable future just Like Tim “Turbo Tax” Geithner planned said it would.

Dr Evil on November 4, 2010 at 10:58 AM

The MSM will report this; “Unemployment down to 9.9%”

Electrongod on November 4, 2010 at 11:00 AM

Keith Olbermann tried to blame this on…the GOP Congress House that hasn’t been seated and won’t be until January.

Because he’s smart like that.

Good Lt on November 4, 2010 at 10:55 AM

Sorry. Obama still controls the executive branch and one branch of Congress, so technically, the power’s still tilted in his favor. Note this well, Keith.

He just has to get approval for spending more of your money now, whereas he had a blank check before.

Poor, poor Keith. It’s going to age him something fierce being angry all the time.

Good Lt on November 4, 2010 at 11:00 AM

This is obviously the fault of every Republican who won their election on Tuesday.

Bishop on November 4, 2010 at 10:18 AM

That’s the problem- it’s not anyone’s fault per se and the blame game is a waste of time. The country remains in the depths of a severe balance sheet recession, similar to what Japan experienced in the past decade. Given the severe levels of debt and asset loss that occurred when the financial system nearly collapsed, neither households or businesses are willing to spend.

It was interesting to hear Boehner say that the Republican Congress will end the ‘uncertainty’ that has supposedly held back the growth small business jobs. I think this was a big mistake- there’s no quick and easy fix. The main and real uncertainty haunting businesses is consumer spending- when will it return. You can’t expand your business unless there’s demand for your product or service. Voters will return to the polls in 2 years and expect real progress based on these kinds of promises.

bayam on November 4, 2010 at 11:02 AM

If we see the picture of the Imperial Storm Trooper, does that mean that the pretty girl at the head of the line in the other unemployment photograph finally got a job?

turfmann on November 4, 2010 at 11:04 AM

See, Rand Paul a Senator for 24 hours and already unemployment is going up.
– MSNBC

angryed on November 4, 2010 at 11:11 AM

Our company was bought out and the new company has been letting people go a few at a time. Five in Oct. including myself. And most of the rest to be gone in Nov. Some have already found jobs and resigned and the rest decided to ride it out to the end. Hopefully, things will start to get better soon. I do think though the 99 week extended benefits just encouraged people to stay on unemployment instead of looking for work. One of my co-workers brothers was out of work for 2 yrs collecting unemployment and going to school. Why should he look for work!

atxcowgirl on November 4, 2010 at 11:15 AM

I’ve read that too, and this morning on a local radio program, they were saying that there will be a 1 mile radius around Obama at all times. Meaning the Secret Service, and India’s local PD’s have to maintain this at all times for the Obama’s.

A 1 mile radius. Where are they going to put all those people? This is absolutely insane. India’s gonna be mighty p!ssed off, when this is all said, and done.

capejasmine on November 4, 2010 at 10:25 AM

I have to disagree. The One is going to Mumbai, the scene of the devastating terrorist attack last year. Mumbai (formerly Bombay, IIRC) is a resort and high-end business community, and is on the beach. All of which adds up to “target-rich environment” and “soft target” by terrorist standards.

The 34 warships (a carrier battle group plus support train) is there for the very sensible reason that with the U.S. National Command Authority in a proven high-vulnerability area next door to both (1) a country that cannot control its own border areas (Pakistan) and (2) an active combat zone (Afghanistan), this puts the NCA in a place that, frankly, it really shouldn’t be from a purely practical POV (never mind the politics).

If I were in charge of the Navy/Marine assets (and assuming I couldn’t talk POTUS out of going to begin with) I’d have a full MEUSOC (Marine Expeditionary Unit/Special Operations Capable) on the ground, around him 24/7 as long as he was in-country. Not “close by”- On. The. Ground. (If India didn’t like it, I’d say “Fine- let’s hold the meeting somewhere more reasonable, like On. The. Carrier.”) The best way to avoid any local “warriors of Allah” giving in to temptation in such circumstances is a ring of steel. As a rule, they don’t like going after hard targets.

And if the Indian government still “didn’t like it”, I’d ask them, “Would you prefer going down in history as the place where the President of the United States fell victim to terrorists?”

My guess is, the answer at that point would be “no”.

Like him or not (and I don’t particularly) Obama is the President. And if he thinks sticking his head in what could be a bear trap is a good way to “get away from it all”, he has to be protected. Even if we’re protecting him from the possible adverse consequences of his own foolishness.

clear ether

eon

eon on November 4, 2010 at 11:17 AM

Additional memo to MSNBC – these numbers are from OCTOBER.

Considering we’re on day 4 of November (hence, kind of hard to get Nov. employment numbers LOL), and that the GOP doesn’t even get seated until January, we’re still in DEM-DEM-DEM land here.

Enjoy!

Good Lt on November 4, 2010 at 11:19 AM

eon on November 4, 2010 at 11:17 AM

I somewhat agree, but this is my opinion on this.

Given the current economy, and job losses, Obama’s place is here, working on things. He’s done everything but work on these issues. Vacations, golf, campaigns have kept him out of the office, and wasting a lot of time, and money for more recreational venues.

There is no real clear reason given for this trip. Yes, Mumbai is very dangerous place for him to go, but I have to ask…if it’s this dangerous that all this security is needed, why on Gods earth would he take his wife, and children into such a hot zone of terrorism?

I think the entire trip is an absurd waste of tax payers money. It’s all at a time when we can least afford it.

As this local radio program said….has Obama ever heard of GO TO MEETING???

capejasmine on November 4, 2010 at 11:26 AM

My guess is Obama blames it on House Republicans… the new enemy number 1.

petunia on November 4, 2010 at 11:35 AM

I thought for every fired democrat there was a hired republican, should have been a wash.

anikol on November 4, 2010 at 10:31 AM

Should be, but Donkeys are incapable of finding work in the private sector, whereas the R’s are leaving jobs with private businesses for a while :-)

MJBrutus on November 4, 2010 at 11:37 AM

Did the Red headed lady on the Cell Phone get a job?..:)

Dire Straits on November 4, 2010 at 11:41 AM

Yall forgot that Indiana Unemployment offices have started hiring ARMED GUARDS, in preparation for the 99rs who are due to end this month….

And the Fed is about to bump inflation into hyper-mode.

orbitalair on November 4, 2010 at 11:51 AM

I was wrong. About two years ago I predicated, as commenter here, that unemployment rate would rise to two digests and remain there for at least one year and possibly as long as a decade. By the accepted definition of unemployment rate, the rate has been between nine and ten percent for most of Obama’s term. I subsequently predicted the rate would be in the current range or higher until well after Obama is retired. I think it is unreasonable to believe it will decline during his reign of terror. I haven’t given up on the decade either.

burt on November 4, 2010 at 11:52 AM

From a Progressive standpoing, the problem is that we have too many people in the labor force.

If I were a Progressive who believed in central planning of the nation, controlling everything from defense to health care to CO2 emissions, how would I solve the problem of excess population?

I’m thinking lethal injection; since ovens are so environmentally unfriendly.

hawksruleva on November 4, 2010 at 11:55 AM

Question about extended unemployment benefits. Does that increase the strain on employers, who have to pay into the unemployment insurance program? Certainly it must tax the funds of the individual states.

hawksruleva on November 4, 2010 at 11:57 AM

At least Obama is spendin $200 million on a vacation. That should create a lot of jobs!

In India.

hawksruleva on November 4, 2010 at 11:58 AM

eon on November 4, 2010 at 11:17 AM
hawksruleva on November 4, 2010 at 11:58 AM

A trip that is unnecessary.

dogsoldier on November 4, 2010 at 12:04 PM

hawksruleva on November 4, 2010 at 11:57 AM

Some states actually ran out of money last year and earlier this year.

The amount employers pay to cover employees unemployment varies from state to state.

Different states pay differing amounts of benefits to the unemployed.

dogsoldier on November 4, 2010 at 12:12 PM

BTW, how is the second round of “quantitative easing” gonna effect all this? I can’t imagine the results will be positive.

Doughboy on November 4, 2010 at 10:19 AM

That’s the ticking time bomb that could destroy America, and it’s not getting due attention. First item up for the Republican House should be calling those responsible to testify.

slickwillie2001 on November 4, 2010 at 12:13 PM

Fear not, we are in the very best of hands: Treasury Secretary Geithner Sought Off-The-Record Economic Advice From… Comedian Jon Stewart?…

slickwillie2001 on November 4, 2010 at 1:30 PM

If that surprises Reuters, then they need new prognosticators.

This “unexpected” garbage in economic reporting (particularly on the subject of unemployment numbers) is becoming so rote and old hat, I’m beginning to wonder if it’s not really the economists, but rather the mathematically-challenged reporters who are constantly and continually “surprised” by the numbers.

JeffH on November 4, 2010 at 1:46 PM

slickwillie2001 on November 4, 2010 at 1:30 PM

Saw that too. \facepalm

In related news, the fed is magically gonna make 600 million. I’m not making that up.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=131043062&ps=cprs

Yeah NPR of all places…

FTA:”The Fed’s $600 Billion Statement, Translated Into Plain English

The Federal Reserve is about to create $600 billion out of thin air. It’s a huge, experimental stimulus program that will affect stock markets and government policies around the world.”

dogsoldier on November 4, 2010 at 1:49 PM

Remember back in February (?) when the unemployment rate was blamed on bad weather and people being unable to go look for work because of it . . . ?

So the entire Midwest gets hit by massive storms, blizzard conditions, etc, causing new applications to drop and it’s the recovering economy that caused the drop. Weather gets more mild, claims go right back up to the previous rolling average, and they are surprised? Do these people have the memories of a rocks? Is every Reuters economist so completely blind ideologicially that they can’t even remember their own excuses, legitimate or not?

As to the Fed’s “efforts”: We had a little over $800 Billion in currency in circulation in 2008. TARP was supposed to be the first attempt to completely turn us into Weimar Republic/Nigerian destroyed country, but the banks didn’t take the cash and put into the system. They left it in the Fed’s vaults. Plan foiled.

The $1.7 Trillion in purchases they did previously went into the Treasury and again failed to get out there.

This “QE2″ is going to be structured as a cash payout.

The forces determined to make the U.S. “pay” for all our “evil success” are desperate to get enough new currency out there to crush the dollar and the country. They have well-meaning co-conspirators who think they are helping us by devaluing the dollar because it makes debt easier to pay off, but it will also destroy trillions of dollars in wealth and investment.

I hope and pray to God that I’m wrong . . .

PastorJon on November 4, 2010 at 2:06 PM

GM UAW Bailout II: GM Could Be Free of Taxes For Years

Just another boondoggle to prop up the outrageous propaganda re ‘GM repaying TARP’. This is to add value to GM’s initial offering, which it certainly will do, but at additional future cost to taxpayers.

slickwillie2001 on November 4, 2010 at 2:34 PM

QE2 is designed to bang-start inflation. Bernake said so last week when this first hit the news. Why it wouldn’t be “Carter the Lesser” years without 10% inflation.

Are you mad enough yet to round these people up and make examples out of them?

Or are we just to sit around and watch another $1trillion evaporate?

orbitalair on November 4, 2010 at 2:52 PM

Will the November figures crash even more, with thousands of political consultants and pollsters suddenly no longer needed?

jwolf on November 4, 2010 at 10:21 AM

aka ACORN workers and SEIU thugs.

dthorny on November 4, 2010 at 3:52 PM