Final Gallup enthusiasm gap: nineteen points

posted at 12:10 pm on November 2, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Gallup released its final polling on voter enthusiasm today, and the bottom line is that it’s record-breaking for midterm elections. In fact, for Democrats and their leaners, it’s the second-best enthusiasm level in a midterm election Gallup has seen at 44%, only topped by 2006′s 53% and their nine-point lead over the GOP in that wave election.

The bad news for Democrats?  Well ….

Americans’ enthusiasm about voting exceeds the recent midterm election high set four years ago, with 50% of Americans and 53% of registered voters saying they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in 2010. …

The record level of overall enthusiasm is primarily the result of Republicans’ heightened excitement — 63% of Republicans (including Republican-leaning independents) say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting. That not only greatly exceeds Democrats’ expressed enthusiasm this year, but also is substantially higher than what Gallup has measured for either party’s supporters on the eve of a midterm election.

The high level of Republican enthusiasm has led to the largest gap in enthusiasm by party of any recent midterm elections, 19 percentage points. The prior highs were nine points in favor of the Democrats in 2006, and nine points in favor of the Republicans in 1994.

This means that we can look forward to a big turnout today, for which Gallup had prepared by running two models of likely voters in their previous generic Congressional balloting.  This suggests that their models may have slightly underestimated the amplitude of the wave today.  The 63% mark is 19 points higher than the enthusiasm number for the GOP in 1994, when Republicans took 52 seats.  The gap is more than twice as large in that election, and in 2006.

The question then becomes not so much how many House seats the GOP can grab in this wave, but how many Senate seats they can take.  The polls showing the GOP losing in some close races suddenly look rather suspect in the face of a gap this size.  They need 10 to get control of the Senate, and converting close races in West Virginia, Washington, California, and Illinois would make that happen.


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Comment pages: 1 2

I voted this morning in Kansas around 7:30 AM… I had to wait in line for a couple of minutes to vote… I hope to be making lots of popcorn later tonight

tanvec on November 2, 2010 at 1:18 PM

No. Now we’re getting into ridiculous territory. It’s smaller than 19 points.

amerpundit on November 2, 2010 at 12:19 PM

Why do you say that? Why would ANYONE who is actually registered as a Republican NOT vote today? seriously?

bilups on November 2, 2010 at 1:19 PM

just one more for the road……..

…..TEANAMI !!!!

200 SEAT CONSERVATIVE pickup or bust!!!

PappyD61 on November 2, 2010 at 1:22 PM

forest on November 2, 2010 at 12:31 PM

Coopers Rock

db on November 2, 2010 at 1:26 PM

Finally, the electorate has seen Obama and the Dems for who they really are! Tonight will be special for sure!

SPGuy on November 2, 2010 at 1:35 PM

I’m hanging 10 right now.

Sorry, couldn’t resist. ;)

Benaiah on November 2, 2010 at 1:57 PM

McConnell, Boehner, this Dem wipeout doesn’t mean that we love you guys. It just means that we’re coming after you next.

SilentWatcher on November 2, 2010 at 2:23 PM

Picture this….The guy on the jet ski is the Tea Party pulling Americans to save the country…http://noolmusic.com/spike_videos/billabong_odyssey_-_opening_big-wave_scene_mike_parsons_70ft_wave.php

txmomof6 on November 2, 2010 at 4:17 PM

Sorry here is the link, don’t think it worked before
http://noolmusic.com/spike_videos/billabong_odyssey_-_opening_big-wave_scene_mike_parsons_70ft_wave.php

txmomof6 on November 2, 2010 at 4:19 PM

Turn out high at my polling place in Il-16.

More here including O’Donnell race:

http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2010/11/odonnell-could-win-you-betcha.html

MSimon on November 2, 2010 at 6:17 PM

Comment pages: 1 2