Jim Geraghty and Jay Cost: How does a 70+ seat pick-up tomorrow sound?

posted at 6:40 pm on November 1, 2010 by Allahpundit

Alternate headline: “Pessimistic eeyoreblogger thisclose to a nervous breakdown.”

In the House, the projection is for the GOP to gain 70 seats: The GOP will win 76 House districts currently held by Democrats, and the Democrats will win 6 House seats currently held by Republicans, including a few surprises. Republican takeovers are in red; Democratic takeovers are in dark blue.

I can hear it now: “Jim’s been gargling with Maker’s Mark again.” But I actually played it fairly safe on this list. I predicted no GOP takeovers in states where the early voting looks pretty “meh,” such as West Virginia or Iowa.

Cost actually isn’t predicting a 70+ pick-up, merely noting that according to another statistician’s regression analysis, yesterday’s Gallup generic ballot blockbuster should mean something in the neighborhood of … 76 seats, precisely what Geraghty has. Quote: “In fact, you have to go all the way back to 1928 to find an election where the popular vote margin resembled anything close to what Gallup is predicting.”

The kicker? Gallup’s not the only pollster now pointing past 1994 and back to the 20s for an analog. Just out from Rasmussen:

Republicans have opened a 12-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, October 31, 2010. New Rasmussen Reports polling finds that 51% of Likely Voters nationwide plan to vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 39% are opting for the Democrat.

If these results hold, it could lead to the election of more Republicans to Congress than at any time since the 1920s…

Republicans lead by 20 among men and by six percentage points among women. They lead by 20 among senior citizens and by 31 among voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties.

Not only is 12 points tied for the biggest lead Republicans have ever had on the Rasmussen generic ballot poll, but if you follow the Ras link above and eyeball the right-hand column, you’ll see that they’ve never been above 50 percent during The One’s presidency — until right now. Looking at that Gallup poll last night and then Rasmussen’s this afternoon, I felt like Schwarzenegger at the end of “Predator” when the creature finally takes off its mask. Just staring at it, thinking … “What de hell ahh you?”

So gruesome is it, in fact, that the Democratic leadership has now apparently abandoned its pretense of holding the House and is talking openly about a “bloodbath” if the polls are accurate. Nate Silver is also preparing the faithful to absorb the blow by offering five reasons why the GOP’s gains might be even bigger than expected. (Note numbers two and five.) I can’t quite buy it, almost for congenital reasons: Until I see a 60+ gain with my own two eyes (“What de hell ahh you?”) my assumption is that it can’t and won’t happen. Too many reasons to think that the Dems can at least limit the damage: The GOP’s brand is still unpopular, Obama’s been begging young and minority voters for months to turn out, and the Dems have spent boatloads of money on ads. They’ll still get crushed, but I think it’ll be more like 54 seats in the House than 70+. Exit question: If it does end up being 70+ in the House, how does the GOP not take back the Senate too?


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Comment pages: 1 2 3

The real wipeout won’t be the House, or the Senate, or the Governors — it’ll be all the local elections.

A thousand Democat politicians will lose their jobs tomorrow.

Pythagoras on November 1, 2010 at 9:20 PM

Invest in Kleenex. The MSM is going to need lots of it. Their creation…. their dream…. has failed.

Key West Reader on November 1, 2010 at 9:26 PM

I’m baffled by the prediction that Ben Quayle will lose. I live in AZ-3 and it would be a major upset if Shadegg’s old seat goes to the Donks.

Brainster on November 1, 2010 at 9:28 PM

A thousand nations of the Persian empire, descended upon us, but we fought in the shade.. (and won? we’ll see tomorrow)….

Never retreat, never surrender. Those are conservative principles….

rightwingyahooo on November 1, 2010 at 9:31 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SnqnxT9LrRY

Lourdes on November 1, 2010 at 9:35 PM

This one’s for AP…

Lourdes on November 1, 2010 at 9:37 PM

Yeah. I believe in Anthropogenic Climate Change.
It’s coming to DC starting tomorrow.

J_Crater on November 1, 2010 at 6:47 PM

Climate change is so yesterday: http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/29408

davidk on November 1, 2010 at 9:38 PM

RINO in Name Only on November 1, 2010 at 7:36 PM

Yeah but, in ’12 the D’s have to protect 28 Senate seats and the R’s only 8 or 9. Provided the R’s don’t lose the TEA partiers, the Senate will go heavily RED in ’12.

Archimedes on November 1, 2010 at 8:44 PM

Yeah, -part of the randomness in Senate elections. Unfortunately 2010 is a tough year for Republicans to take back the Senate. Transpose the 2012 slate for 2010 and we take it easily.

slickwillie2001 on November 1, 2010 at 9:39 PM

Darn it, I’m still predicting 100 seats!

stonemeister on November 1, 2010 at 9:57 PM

noting that according to another statistician’s regression recession analysis, yesterday’s Gallup generic ballot blockbuster should mean something in the neighborhood of … 76 seats

70/10. I’m sticking with it.

John the Libertarian on November 1, 2010 at 10:00 PM

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!BIBLICAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

canopfor on November 1, 2010 at 6:44 PM

Yes, I’d call it mostly Old Testament, especially the book of Exodus, with a little Leviticus thrown in for comic relief.

Emperor Norton on November 1, 2010 at 6:54 PM

I’ve been thinking more along the lines of Genesis, Noah and the Flood.

(I don’t think a Wave is going to be adequate to describe this one).

INC on November 1, 2010 at 10:02 PM

Pessimistic eeyoreblogger,

The last two years have been so bad, tomorrow will only be the beginning of correction.

INC on November 1, 2010 at 10:04 PM

Invest in Kleenex. The MSM is going to need lots of it. Their creation…. their dream…. has failed.
Key West Reader on November 1, 2010 at 9:26 PM

You almost feel sorry for the Leftist Oppressives… there it passed.

Chip on November 1, 2010 at 10:16 PM

Boehner is suggesting cutting $100 Billion.

I am suggesting cutting Boehner.

That is a pathetic idea for a cut.

AshleyTKing on November 1, 2010 at 10:44 PM

Boehner is suggesting cutting $100 Billion.

I am suggesting cutting Boehner.

That is a pathetic idea for a cut.

AshleyTKing on November 1, 2010 at 10:44 PM

I read that somewhere, he can’t be serious with that. I say we need to dig up the 2007 budget and ask what is wrong with it. If Bammie’s mess becomes baseline for discussion we are so screwed.

Let’s also look at federal headcount in 2007 the same way.

slickwillie2001 on November 1, 2010 at 10:55 PM

Boehner is suggesting cutting $100 Billion.

I am suggesting cutting Boehner.

That is a pathetic idea for a cut.

AshleyTKing on November 1, 2010 at 10:44 PM

That’s not a bad number…per month.

2ipa on November 1, 2010 at 11:07 PM

Answer to your exit question: O’Donnell (repeat of the Scozzafavva clear-field-for-a-RINO leaves fatally flawed conservative as only option acceptable to base), Dioguardi(Pataki or Giuliani shoulda stepped up post-ScottBrown), Raese (Shelley Capito got scared out of race by initial polling, wouldn’t have been vulnerable to Palm Springs elitist charge like Raese)

Raisedbywolves on November 2, 2010 at 2:22 AM

Hey, Lourdes! This is what I’ll be doing tomorrow:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfPg5LjGYz8

The Dance of Joy!

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on November 2, 2010 at 4:24 AM

Merry Tea Party!!!

JonPrichard on November 1, 2010 at 6:53 PM

Love that! I’ve been saying that Christmas is coming 7 1/2 weeks early, so this is perfect!

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on November 2, 2010 at 5:37 AM

I’m going to be surfin’:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1FaflUn4Co

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on November 2, 2010 at 5:50 AM

go vote

rob verdi on November 2, 2010 at 6:41 AM

I have been saying this all along. The senate may not flip, only because there are only 17 democrat senators up for re-election.

Vashta.Nerada on November 2, 2010 at 10:27 AM

What are you sitting there reading this for?
GO VOTE!

LeeSeneca on November 2, 2010 at 11:25 AM

Comment pages: 1 2 3