Cook report final predictions: 50-60 seat gain in House, 6-8 in Senate

posted at 3:22 pm on November 1, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Charlie Cook is usually known for his calm, somewhat conservative (in the non-political sense) predictions for elections.  He waited quite a while before joining the chorus that said Republicans would retake control of the House in this midterm cycle, and has remained diffident to the GOP’s chances in the Senate until recently.  Today, Cook gives his final predictions for the midterms, which hit the disaster level for Democrats:

In its final forecast for the election cycle, The Cook Political Report expects a gain for Republicans of 50 to 60 seats in the House, with six to eight seats in the Senate. Below are the final outlooks and latest ratings changes.

His reasoning for the House is rather self-evident.  Democrats have trailed all year in polling, not just in the generic polls but also in specific races.  More than a quarter of the Democrats in Congress have trailed their GOP challengers at some point over the last few weeks, which means about 64 of them are in deep trouble.  Half of them have failed to hit the 50% mark in surveys.  Somehow, though, Cook believes that Democrats have 181 safe seats even with those numbers in play, while Republican incumbents can count on 204 certain holds.

Cook’s prediction on the Senate seems a little overly cautious:

The Cook Political Report is adjusting its current outlook to reflect a net gain for Republicans of 6 to 8 seats, down from 7 to 9 seats. While it is becoming increasingly likely that Republicans will hold all 18 of its own seats, Democrats’ prospects in three of their 19 seats have improved in recent days. Sens. Barbara Boxer in California and Patty Murray in Washington now appear to be headed for re-election, albeit by small margins. In the special election in West Virginia, Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin now holds an advantage. Currently there are 57 Democrats, two independents that caucus with Democrats, and 41 Republican Senators. Post-election, Republicans could hold between 47 and 49 seats to 51 to 53 seats for Democrats. This new outlook means that the odds of Republicans winning a majority in the Senate are now non-existent.

I wouldn’t be too quick to discount a couple of these races.  Manchin has taken a late lead in polling, but he has seriously underperformed the entire cycle for a reason.  Palin just spent some time supporting John Raese in the last couple of days, and that could have a big impact.  Murray also doesn’t look like a lock for re-election in Washington — in fact, the trends there look like Rossi has picked up enough momentum to beat her.  Boxer has an edge in California but has lost five points in a week.  Linda McMahon trails in CT, but Rasmussen’s latest poll shows her halving Blumenthal’s lead in a week (more on that later).   If a national wave pushes these three to the GOP, Republicans will come pretty close to control of the Senate, or at least force Joe Biden to cast tiebreaking votes.

As Nate Silver suggested last night, there is good reason to think that the Republican wave this year has been underestimated:

Throughout this election season, I’ve tried to stress that there is a great deal of uncertainty in the outcome. Not necessarily uncertainty in individualraces: people probably overestimate that. But uncertainty, rather, in where the House and the Senate will finish over all. People probably underestimate how strongly polling and forecasting errors are correlated from district to district. If Republicans tend to overperform expectations in some races, they will probably also overperform in many, most, or maybe even almost all races. The same holds true for Democrats. (The most recent time something like this occurred was 1998, when polls underestimated the standing of Democrats by 4-5 points nationwide and in almost all individual races.)

If a situation like the one I described above transpires, it’s going to catch a lot of people by surprise. It really shouldn’t; it’s well within the realm of possibility.

He gives five potential reasons for missing the amplitude, and pay close attention to #5:

In addition to wrongly excluding some Republican “unlikely voters” (see Point No. 2), it’s also conceivable that some likely voter models based on past voting histories are overrating the propensity of Democrats to vote. The reason could be that some of them are based on past voting history, and a common question is whether the voter had participated in the last two elections.

But the last two elections — 2006 and 2008 — were good ones for Democrats, one in which there was little if any “enthusiasm gap,” or it may even have favored Democrats. This is, in fact, quite atypical: Republicans usually do have a turnout advantage, especially in midterm elections. Their demographics are older and whiter, and whites aged 50 and up are the most reliable voters. If likely voter models are benchmarked to 2006 and 2008 patterns, therefore, they could underestimate the turnout gap, giving too much credit to Democrats who voted in 2006 or 2008 but who don’t ordinarily. Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics makes a nice version of this argument.

The results Cook predicts would represent a stunning victory on any terms.  It would put Republicans in control of the agenda at least in the House and act as a brake on Obamanomics and wild spending, assuming that the GOP has learned its lesson from 2006 and 2008.

My predictions: I’m guessing that the GOP picks up 65 seats in the House, and nine Senate seats.

Update: AJ Strata has more optimism than I do, or at least more than I will allow myself to indulge …. (h/t: Adam Baldwin)


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My predictions: I’m guessing that the GOP picks up 65 seats in the House, and nine Senate seats.

Interesting bar, but I think Allah doesn’t have to bend down too low to undershoot it.

KingGold on November 1, 2010 at 3:25 PM

I’ll be having a parTEA tomorrow night!

BruthaMan on November 1, 2010 at 3:26 PM

Murray also doesn’t look like a lock for re-election in Washington — in fact, the trends there look like Rossi has picked up enough momentum to beat her.

Dino will need momentum and about 100,000 election lawyers to win, but I can imagine it happening.

Let’s give Patty the boot tomorrow.

fiatboomer on November 1, 2010 at 3:26 PM

Cook is typically cautious. But those are realistic predictions, even though they could go much higher.

+6 Senate would be a huge disappointment but it’s not a crazy call.

Then again, look at Intrade on the Senate…

Bat Chain Puller on November 1, 2010 at 3:27 PM

My predictions: I’m guessing that the GOP picks up 65 seats in the House, and nine Senate seats.

IIRC I said 67 and 9 on Ace’s poll last week.

fiatboomer on November 1, 2010 at 3:27 PM

I pray it’s bigger than anyone expects!

Oink on November 1, 2010 at 3:27 PM

My predictions: I’m guessing that the GOP picks up 65 seats in the House, and nine Senate seats.

That sounds good espicially the 9 Senate seats..:)

Dire Straits on November 1, 2010 at 3:27 PM

I feel like this is by far he most important election of my lifetime and this is a feeling shared by many with families, particularly with young children.

We HAVE to get rid of the Democrats. They are a natural disaster of epic proportions.

NoDonkey on November 1, 2010 at 3:27 PM

62… not sure who is going where.

upinak on November 1, 2010 at 3:28 PM

I pray it’s bigger than anyone expects!

Oink on November 1, 2010 at 3:27 PM

I agree.. :)

Dire Straits on November 1, 2010 at 3:28 PM

REPEAL OBAMACARE

Kini on November 1, 2010 at 3:28 PM

Mitt Romney will issue his predictions on Wednesday.

Bishop on November 1, 2010 at 3:29 PM

1/2 off Halloween Candy + Election Tea-Nami = Fat Conservatives

portlandon on November 1, 2010 at 3:29 PM

1/2 off Halloween Candy + Election Tea-Nami = Fat Conservatives

portlandon on November 1, 2010 at 3:29 PM

that be a lot of sugar and caffine.

upinak on November 1, 2010 at 3:30 PM

If it’s 50-50 in the Senate, any chance of getting Joe Lieberman to come over to our side? Tell him we have punch and pie.

rbj on November 1, 2010 at 3:31 PM

My predictions: I’m guessing that the GOP picks up 65 seats in the House, and nine Senate seats.

Bold predictions from you Captain Ed…
My predictions: 66 house seats and ten Senate seats…Along with a media that will need the whammmmbulance before they go completely rambo.

The media (MSM) have proven themselves to be haters; nothing but sick twisted evil haters. To hell with every one of them!

Keemo on November 1, 2010 at 3:31 PM

I’m going 9 and 70, I’m very optimistic of our chances in the house, I wouldn’t be too surprised if we went anywhere near 80

Cookies Mom on November 1, 2010 at 3:31 PM

I feel like it’s Christmas Eve, the night before the family trip to Disneyland, and the day before my first date, all rolled into one!

LASue on November 1, 2010 at 3:32 PM

Mitt Romney will issue his predictions on Wednesday.

Bishop on November 1, 2010 at 3:29 PM

LOL; good one Bishop. :-)

Keemo on November 1, 2010 at 3:32 PM

My prediction 70/10

dogsoldier on November 1, 2010 at 3:32 PM

2006, Dems gain 31 seats. END OF GOP RULE!

2008, Dems gain 21 seats. CONSERVATISM DEAD FOR A GENERATION!

2010, GOP gains 53 seats. Normal midterm realignment.

Nothing to see here.

mankai on November 1, 2010 at 3:33 PM

70/10…but I would loove to be giving a low estimate.

kingsjester on November 1, 2010 at 3:33 PM

Bishop on November 1, 2010 at 3:29 PM

Hey, that was my shtick in the Romney thread yesterday!

;)

mankai on November 1, 2010 at 3:34 PM

I’m inclined to believe that unnamed Democrat consultant in Politico yesterday who said Democrats are going to lose all the close ones, even the ones where they looked like they had small leads over the weekend. That means Fiorina and Rossi win, and maybe even McMahon.

There doesn’t seem to be any fundamental reason why this election should be different than other wave years in which the Senate followed the House. It’s not like Barbara Boxer or Patty Murray are the fabulous popular figures who are unbeatable and have dumbasses running against them. They’re both stupid clowns and they have very strong and credible opponents.

rockmom on November 1, 2010 at 3:35 PM

Bishop on November 1, 2010 at 3:29 PM

Actually, I said that Mitt would be issuing his endorsements on Wednesday.

mankai on November 1, 2010 at 3:36 PM

rockmom on November 1, 2010 at 3:35 PM

CA and WA… nutjob states… hard to call.

mankai on November 1, 2010 at 3:37 PM

64/10

Ted Torgerson on November 1, 2010 at 3:37 PM

60/8 as a low ball estimate. I ‘think’ it will be more, but depends on how many ‘dead’ people rise up to vote.

ny59giants on November 1, 2010 at 3:37 PM

That’s a lot of scared people voting irrationally.

ButterflyDragon on November 1, 2010 at 3:38 PM

54and 7

blatantblue on November 1, 2010 at 3:38 PM

You forgot to mention Jim Geraghty or Jay Cost, though Cost hasn’t released his final predictions, he has said he’s giving into his inner Hulk with the final Gallup numbers. Geraghty has Ben Quayle losing which I have to admit amuses me.

Anyway, I’ve thought all year 9 would be perfect. That keeps the Dems in charge of the Senate and accountable on both ends of Pennsylvania Ave. I think Rossi will finally win outside the margin to steal it from him, but Carly loses, which hurts, and Manchin wins. Also, I’ve thought for a while 75 is very doable, and I still think so.

lizzie beth on November 1, 2010 at 3:39 PM

I can live with that.

crr6 on November 1, 2010 at 3:39 PM

67/7

portlandon on November 1, 2010 at 3:40 PM

mankai on November 1, 2010 at 3:34 PM

need more schticking!

upinak on November 1, 2010 at 3:40 PM

If it’s 50-50 in the Senate, any chance of getting Joe Lieberman to come over to our side? Tell him we have punch and pie.

rbj

The Nelson from Nebraska might just switch over to try to ensure re-election in 2012 when he’s up.

Then there’s Lautenberg from N.J. who might just keel over when he sees tomorrow’s results. Governor Christie would then appoint his replacement!

honsy on November 1, 2010 at 3:40 PM

I am ordering a super large Cherry Slurpee for tomorrow night. It is going to be sweeeet.

mustng66 on November 1, 2010 at 3:40 PM

I predict 72 seats but that doesn’t take “margin of cheating” into account.

crosspatch on November 1, 2010 at 3:40 PM

Conventional wisdom is too optimistic. It’s gonna be a dud, a fizzle, we barely get the house, the senate goes into paralysis, obama gets his tyrant on and the GOP establishment still vainly searches for a clue.

Allahpundit is an optimist!

Skandia Recluse on November 1, 2010 at 3:41 PM

Allahpundit is an optimist!

Skandia Recluse on November 1, 2010 at 3:41 PM

Umm, you mean Ed?

upinak on November 1, 2010 at 3:42 PM

If it’s 50-50 in the Senate, any chance of getting Joe Lieberman to come over to our side? Tell him we have punch and pie.
rbj on November 1, 2010 at 3:31 PM

If the vote is related to defense, Lieberman will cross over. If it isn’t, then he stays with the Dems.

joejm65 on November 1, 2010 at 3:42 PM

Skandia Recluse on November 1, 2010 at 3:41 PM

I’m trying to keep my optimism down. Intentional eeyorism

blatantblue on November 1, 2010 at 3:43 PM

I predict a Republican pick up of 1-100 in the House and 1-20 in the Senate.

I betcha I’ll be right.

:)

(In all seriousness, I’m thinking 80-90 in the house and 8-9 Senate. I think the umph behind this anti-incumbent fervor has been greatly underestimated.)

Nethicus on November 1, 2010 at 3:43 PM

Allahpundit is an optimist!

Skandia Recluse on November 1, 2010 at 3:41 PM

Umm, you mean Ed?

upinak on November 1, 2010 at 3:42 PM

No, I checked the by line. Give me a little credit.

Skandia Recluse on November 1, 2010 at 3:44 PM

As Nate Silver suggested last night, there is good reason to think that the Republican wave this year has been underestimated:

He was playing devil’s advocate with that post… he’s going to do another post listing reason’s why the Democrats might do better…

ninjapirate on November 1, 2010 at 3:44 PM

don’t underestimate the ability of the democrats to stuff the ballot box.

RonK on November 1, 2010 at 3:44 PM

No, I checked the by line. Give me a little credit.

Skandia Recluse on November 1, 2010 at 3:44 PM

Okay.. here is a littttttttle. Use it sparingly.

upinak on November 1, 2010 at 3:45 PM

upinak on November 1, 2010 at 3:30 PM

Can you please explain what the heck is going on up in your state?

lizzie beth on November 1, 2010 at 3:45 PM

Can you please explain what the heck is going on up in your state?

lizzie beth on November 1, 2010 at 3:45 PM

Lizzie, I have NO clue what is going on right now. I have been gutting my new house since thursday… so I am ultra tired and I haven’t really been paying attention this weekend and scratch my head at WTF I see on HA.

If I say I can’t wait for it to be over… would you hold it aganist me?

upinak on November 1, 2010 at 3:47 PM

This is good news, and very much needed. Wednesday the real work begins……

http://proteinwisdom.com/?p=22444

capejasmine on November 1, 2010 at 3:47 PM

A telling poll re union workers’ attitudes vs. their union bosses’ attitudes towards campaign spending.
http://www.nrtw.org/en/press/2010/11/luntz-union-member-poll-11012010

onlineanalyst on November 1, 2010 at 3:47 PM

mustng66 on November 1, 2010 at 3:40 PM

I haven’t eaten sugar or corn for months, but I’m giving myself a 1 night furlough tomorrow night. Coke Icee & popcorn must be had!

lizzie beth on November 1, 2010 at 3:47 PM

Unexpectedly humongous would be awesome!

RalphyBoy on November 1, 2010 at 3:48 PM

Mitt Romney will issue his predictions on Wednesday.

Bishop on November 1, 2010 at 3:29 PM

Ha…he might even campaign for and support the winners…

right2bright on November 1, 2010 at 3:49 PM

If I say I can’t wait for it to be over… would you hold it aganist me?

upinak on November 1, 2010 at 3:47 PM

Nope, not one bit. It’s like the crazies came to town, I think gutting a house, just voting and ignoring the rest sounds utterly sane.

lizzie beth on November 1, 2010 at 3:49 PM

don’t underestimate the ability of the democrats to stuff the ballot box.

I don’t think they gots enough “stuff” this time…

Bat Chain Puller on November 1, 2010 at 3:51 PM

my 5 cents: 9/70

TheAlamos on November 1, 2010 at 3:51 PM

If we get nine in the Senate, what about Lieberman? Perhaps he caucuses with us?

catmman on November 1, 2010 at 3:52 PM

assuming that the GOP has learned its lesson from 2006 and 2008.

Big assumption…if they have not learned, they are next.

Schadenfreude on November 1, 2010 at 3:53 PM

If it’s 50-50 in the Senate, any chance of getting Joe Lieberman to come over to our side? Tell him we have punch and pie.

rbj on November 1, 2010 at 3:31 PM

Someone at NRO (I think) mentioned something about Webb from VA. Nebraska’s Nelson is up in 2012. Maybe he might want to take back that Obamacare vote. The punch and pie might appeal to him too.

One thing is for sure. As long as the coastal states continue to double up on liberal senators, the states in flyover zone need to redouble efforts to make Democratic senators extinct or endangered species. We need more control over the appointment of federal judges.

BuckeyeSam on November 1, 2010 at 3:53 PM

Ed, did you factor fraud into your prediction?

beatcanvas on November 1, 2010 at 3:53 PM

Nope, not one bit. It’s like the crazies came to town, I think gutting a house, just voting and ignoring the rest sounds utterly sane.

lizzie beth on November 1, 2010 at 3:49 PM

already voted a few weeks ago. Tomorrow is Painting day! I knew I wasn’t going to have time to go vote like everyone else… so I did what I could.

upinak on November 1, 2010 at 3:53 PM

HEY! I got a competition for HA commenters! How many HA blog posts has AllahPundit submitted since the polls started stated that the Democrats are gonna get massacred on Tuesday?

Hey Ed, is AllahPundit on vacation? I bet his called in sick all weekend long and plans to do so for the rest of the week. He’s come down with a case of Eeyore-reversism that he is literally killing him. What with no polls showing a Democrat recovery in sight, what is he to post for the next few months? He must be turn from purple to red, and is in shock with the Conservative color styling. Just tell him red is a nice color on him.

Sultry Beauty on November 1, 2010 at 3:53 PM

Mitt Romney will issue his predictions on Wednesday.

Bishop on November 1, 2010 at 3:29 PM

lol, never gets old

Missy on November 1, 2010 at 3:55 PM

If it’s 50-50 in the Senate, any chance of getting Joe Lieberman to come over to our side? Tell him we have punch and pie.
rbj on November 1, 2010 at 3:31 PM

If the vote is related to defense, Lieberman will cross over. If it isn’t, then he stays with the Dems.

joejm65 on November 1, 2010 at 3:42 PM

I believe with “our side” rbj was referring to caucusing. It seems unlikely. Whether that would be acceptible, in my view, depends on what we offered him. If it was committee assignments solely related to defense and foreign policy, that would probably be a plus for the right.

However, putting him on domestic committees would really hurt us, since he’d cross over quite often. It wouldn’t hurt us right away, since without him, we’d be in the minority and would lose those votes anyway, but in 2012, when we are basically guaranteed to have the senate anyway (10 repubs vs 23 democrats would give us a net gain even in a very bad year), Lieberman crossing would cost us committee votes we would have won were he still a Dem.

RINO in Name Only on November 1, 2010 at 3:55 PM

Sultry Beauty on November 1, 2010 at 3:53 PM

Allah is getting ready for the Alaska elections, remember. He may be up at the crack of afternoon and sleeping at the crack of dawn (his time0 due to the lateness of Alaska.

That 4 hours difference is a killer!

upinak on November 1, 2010 at 3:56 PM

House 72 seats (going out a limb and say no GOP incumbent will lose, including Cao)
Senate 9

ConservativePartyNow on November 1, 2010 at 3:56 PM

If the vote is related to defense, Lieberman will cross over. If it isn’t, then he stays with the Dems.

joejm65 on November 1, 2010 at 3:42 PM

Nate Silver thinks he may be crossing over

ConservativePartyNow on November 1, 2010 at 3:58 PM

I’ll stick with my eeyorishness and go with Larry Sabato’s 55/8. In either ’06 or ’08 he was the closest predictor in the entire predictorate.

eeyore on November 1, 2010 at 3:59 PM

ConservativePartyNow on November 1, 2010 at 3:56 PM

you are much higher then I am. I am trying not to think about how high just in case, it isn’t.

upinak on November 1, 2010 at 3:59 PM

117 in the House, 12 in the Senate, and Fiorina sends Boxer home

El_Terrible on November 1, 2010 at 4:01 PM

Wow, I can’t see how anyone is coming up with 9 Senate seats.
I think there will be some surprises in the House though.
I’m going with 70 and 7.
It’s going to be a fun night!
Side bet…. which race is first to file lawsuit?

JeffinOrlando on November 1, 2010 at 4:01 PM

already voted a few weeks ago. Tomorrow is Painting day! I knew I wasn’t going to have time to go vote like everyone else… so I did what I could.

upinak on November 1, 2010 at 3:53 PM

Red, I assume?

Bat Chain Puller on November 1, 2010 at 4:01 PM

Sultry Beauty on November 1, 2010 at 3:53 PM

what?

blatantblue on November 1, 2010 at 4:03 PM

Hours away from the first wave crashing on the Democrats shore…..

Let’s get our boards out and ride the wave. (and hope it’s not a ripple!)

PappyD61 on November 1, 2010 at 4:11 PM

All I have to say is:
1. 70/9
2. Once they get in there I WILL BE HOLDING THEIR FEET TO THE FIRE!
3. I will be glad when 11/3 comes. I am just about worn out from all of this.
4. I want a really good birthday present this year (11/11) of repeal of Obowmaocare, Issa to do his thing, extend the Bush tax credits, etc.
5. Ummmmmmm…that’s all for now. ;-)

sicoit on November 1, 2010 at 4:11 PM

117 in the House, 12 in the Senate, and Fiorina sends Boxer home

El_Terrible on November 1, 2010 at 4:01 PM

I like your optimism..That would be outstanding.. :)

Dire Straits on November 1, 2010 at 4:12 PM

Oh yeah
6. Paladino knocks the cr@p outta Cuomo!

sicoit on November 1, 2010 at 4:14 PM

Paladino knocks the cr@p outta Cuomo!

sicoit on November 1, 2010 at 4:14 PM

AHAHAHAHAHAHA

blatantblue on November 1, 2010 at 4:17 PM

slurpees comin’ up!

cmsinaz on November 1, 2010 at 4:30 PM

Projections are for those in safe districts. It’s 50/50 here in NY19

Time to work the phone.

KW64 on November 1, 2010 at 4:32 PM

Reading the comments from the NY times was awesome!!! Half of the dems are depressed, the other half are delusional!

Cookies Mom on November 1, 2010 at 4:33 PM

More like Teamageddon!

ronsfi on November 1, 2010 at 4:33 PM

I think Republicans are going to do better than anyone predicts. I live in NC and I’ve talked to a lot of people who don’t normally vote in midterm elections and they are angry and fed up with Obama. They are voting in this election and voting conservative! My husband had to stand in line 2.5 hours on Saturday for early voting and he said there wasn’t a Hispanic or African American in the line. (I only mention this becuase they tend to vote democratic) I can’t wait to see what happens on 11/3/10

mcplumbercuda on November 1, 2010 at 4:39 PM

I’m telling ya, the Senate will flip too!

cartooner on November 1, 2010 at 4:41 PM

48 and 6.

This is the Price is Right, isn’t it? Closest without going over?

(I was going to bid $1….)

notropis on November 1, 2010 at 4:41 PM

upinak on November 1, 2010 at 3:56 PM

It takes 2-3 days to prepare to a 4 hour time change? I thought he hang out at the Val-U-Rite store? It’s not like he has to change his Sarah Palin T-Shirt and pj bottoms or even get out of bed. He should be able to type on his laptop with a bag of popcorn and the vodka on the nightstand.

Sultry Beauty on November 1, 2010 at 4:46 PM

I’ll be buying my “victory Slurpee” tomorrow!!

Khun Joe on November 1, 2010 at 4:48 PM

It takes 2-3 days to prepare to a 4 hour time change? I thought he hang out at the Val-U-Rite store? It’s not like he has to change his Sarah Palin T-Shirt and pj bottoms or even get out of bed. He should be able to type on his laptop with a bag of popcorn and the vodka on the nightstand.

Sultry Beauty on November 1, 2010 at 4:46 PM

How do you know he wears a S.P. T-Shirt and bottoms????

upinak on November 1, 2010 at 4:51 PM

The perfect 100 prediction:

+88 seats in the House
+11 seats in the Senate
+ Tancredo wins in CO
= 100!

Of course, the GOP will get massive gains in State Legislative chambers and other Gubernatorial races, but 100 makes a nice round number.

Norwegian on November 1, 2010 at 4:56 PM

Fire Fifty Final Call – 82 Net.

motionview on November 1, 2010 at 5:08 PM

House +79
Senate +10

The pollsters’ turnout models, all of them, are significantly if not fataly deficient.

TXUS on November 1, 2010 at 6:03 PM

Mitt Romney will issue his predictions on Wednesday.

Bishop on November 1, 2010 at 3:29 PM

Post of the day LOL

karenhasfreedom on November 1, 2010 at 6:36 PM

Oh, and

75 House Seats

10 Senate Seats

Run the table with the Guvs, and lots of state houses flip, thus positively impacting the realignment of the congressional districts for 2012.

karenhasfreedom on November 1, 2010 at 6:37 PM

I have been saying 68 & 8, but I wonder now if that is a low ball estimate. Watching the retruns tomorrow night is going to very exciting!

Red State State of Mind on November 1, 2010 at 6:58 PM

Too low. I think it’ll be more than anyone is predicting.

What were those quotes I loved yesterday?

“Anyone who is tied will lose. Anyone within 5% might win.”

“Unprecedented.”

“There will be some surprises.”

Yeah, those!

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on November 1, 2010 at 7:41 PM

68 + 8
But IF the Senate ends up 50/50, I’d not be surprised to see Nelson (NE) switch to try to save his hide in advance of 2012.

Red State State of Mind on November 1, 2010 at 10:27 PM