Game time: Final House rankings and printable cheat sheet
posted at 8:30 pm on October 31, 2010 by Patrick Ishmael
The die has been cast, and this is what the final roll has turned up. I’ve organized our final list by state and poll closing time, so as the night progresses you’ll see exactly how the election’s shaping up. Races ranked 1-2-3… etc. are the most likely to flip; races in the 100s, least likely. You may have to subtract four-ish seats from the total here, depending on the number of GOP seats that flip to Democrats. Once you hit the 43 or so seat mark, though, that should be the ballgame.
To sum, Republicans need a net 39 seats to claim a majority, so if we see a bunch of seats in the 40s and 50s going our way, we should be in great shape. Deeper wins, even better. A bunch of losses in seats ranked in the 30s or below, and we may have to hold on to our hats, because it’s going to be a late night. My final prediction: 63 seats, +/- 3 seats. Nate Silver is predicting 53-54 seats on average, with Republicans favored in 59 contests. Your collective Midterm Challenge Prediction: ~70.
All times are Eastern.
This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
To see the comments on the original post, look here.
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Disappointed about Yarmuth – I’ve met him, and he’s a little weasel dirtbag.
But I’ve also met Baron Hill, and he’s a patrician stuck up dirtbag, and I’ll be glad to see him go.
fossten on October 31, 2010 at 8:33 PM
Even if we win 60 seats off the bat I bet it will still be a late night as we all party down and watch the humpbot implode!
Cookies Mom on October 31, 2010 at 8:35 PM
Who knows about Yarmuth… Rand Paul was ahead by %15 in the final poll so he could have coattails.
tetriskid on October 31, 2010 at 8:37 PM
Sheesh, look at California. My state is hopeless. It’s more chock-full of f–ktards than a Kucinich rally. You can’t fix stupid.
Django on October 31, 2010 at 8:38 PM
Intrade.com at 49% for 60 or more.
I’m in for $100.
barnone on October 31, 2010 at 8:40 PM
I thought we looked a lot better than that in NC. What the snickies!
hawkdriver on October 31, 2010 at 8:46 PM
Fantastic, I have some hard left liberal aquaintences, they are melting down on FB right now. Ok, I may be helping that along and am working on maybe a couple of de-friendings tonight. They have devolved to only name calling at this point. This is great!
bluemarlin on October 31, 2010 at 8:46 PM
Tuesdays forecast.
2ipa on October 31, 2010 at 8:48 PM
golly, i’ve been on the Robert Hurt for Congress (VA5) bandwagon to oust Pelosi-enabling Perriello for over 1 year.
bring ‘er home.
kelley in virginia on October 31, 2010 at 8:48 PM
Watching FOX news, when you have a sitting President, a former President Clinton, the first lady all campaigning for you plus all the money you need and you still cannot pull ahead in Illinois, that is saying something.
bluemarlin on October 31, 2010 at 8:49 PM
Mark my word. We are going to better than this. I’ll bet my paycheck on it.
hawkdriver on October 31, 2010 at 8:49 PM
At what point is the humpbot released?
txmomof6 on October 31, 2010 at 8:49 PM
Why no mention of the Jesse Jackson Jr. race in the Illinois 2nd District? I’ve been out of the country for a month and can’t find anything about this race.
I know that Issac Hayes has been running a great campaign against him, but still nothing in the news anywhere.
Anyone?
Knucklehead on October 31, 2010 at 8:57 PM
With all the focus on Harry in Nv, let’s not forget what a pleasure it will be to finally retire Dina Titus from the legislative dole. She will go back to teaching at UNLV so she’ll still be paid by taxpayers, but at least now she can’t pass crap that benefits her in her other career.
She’s been a rubber stamp and only won because of Obama and how delicious that she may lose because of Obama.
Jvette on October 31, 2010 at 8:57 PM
No way no how Dahlkemper is gonna win in PA-3. Mike Kelly is ahead by +6 in the polls.
Best moment of debate #2:
D-He took advantage for “Cash For Clunkers”, he didn’t mind using that program (Kelly is a car dealer owner)
K-Cash For Clunkers was for the public’s benefit, not mine!
ProudPalinFan on October 31, 2010 at 8:57 PM
Pantano is within points of McIntyre. Same with Ellmer, Lawson and others down here. Why do our numbers look so bad in the chart, Pat?
hawkdriver on October 31, 2010 at 8:57 PM
I hope he has several geared up. You know one for Reid would be different than one for Frank and a different one for Boxer etc.. I am hoping we will get different ones anyway and be able to see them.
bluemarlin on October 31, 2010 at 8:58 PM
You’ve got five competitive races in NC; hope you guys will deliver. FL will deliver four seats.
TimTebowSavesAmerica on October 31, 2010 at 8:59 PM
I’m sooo there, with surfboard and sunblocker 2000.
Electrongod on October 31, 2010 at 8:59 PM
I took off Wednesday – party like it’s 2010!
129 seats. You read it here first.
Akzed on October 31, 2010 at 8:59 PM
The humpbot is released at 40 House seats and 10 Senate seats.
Emperor Norton on October 31, 2010 at 9:00 PM
Palin/Nugent 2012!
Akzed on October 31, 2010 at 9:00 PM
Did I recall you’re up PA way. I just did my last absentee for there. 2012, I’ll be a voting Tarheel.
hawkdriver on October 31, 2010 at 9:01 PM
Thanks for putting this together!
INC on October 31, 2010 at 9:02 PM
General unknowables and sufficient knowables. Pantano is close to McIntyre (but still disadvantaged,) and thus is almost at parity with him with my forecasting method. (I have Pantano at 40% to win; 538 has him at 44%.) If conservatives and tea partiers come out in NC, Republicans could take a lot of seats, and not just the single most likely seat in NC-8. It all comes down to who wants it more.
Patrick Ishmael on October 31, 2010 at 9:05 PM
I’m thinking 100+ that the GOP pick up. Seriously.
Dominion on October 31, 2010 at 9:06 PM
I’m going to go to 87-91 seats flipped. I think people have vastly underestimated many of these house races as well as the national sentiment.
Nethicus on October 31, 2010 at 9:08 PM
I’m soooooo excited for Tuesday!
Love the wave picture.
PattyJ on October 31, 2010 at 9:09 PM
I hope. My father in law is a lifelong Democrat. The following story turned him around for this election at least.
The push polling that McIntyre did down here had their callers accusing Illario Pantano of murder. A local talk radio station down here had him on and they wouldn’t (the push pollers for McIntyre) even mention the murder accusation was an event while Pantano was a deployed Marine Officer. Pantano was exonerated for those charges and cleared of any wrongdoing. I hope Mike McIntyre gets the big boot.
hawkdriver on October 31, 2010 at 9:10 PM
That Walt Minnick is a Gimmick (a little Idaho humor).
We will do our best to make that 35 ranking is a reality.
Electrongod on October 31, 2010 at 9:11 PM
What is the significance of the highlighted rows? (Dem incumbents?)
Gaunilon on October 31, 2010 at 9:12 PM
Thanks Pat.
hawkdriver on October 31, 2010 at 9:12 PM
I want Raese to win for many reasons – but includes wanting to see the Raese-Palin-Nugent photo over and over.
humdinger on October 31, 2010 at 9:15 PM
Thanks!
Valiant on October 31, 2010 at 9:16 PM
All are Dem incumbents. The highlighted rows are to distinguish where one state begins and ends. See here for the state-by-state House breakdown compared to 2004, the last year of Republican majority.
Patrick Ishmael on October 31, 2010 at 9:16 PM
Looks like it is just splitting states up.
bluemarlin on October 31, 2010 at 9:19 PM
Tuesdays forecast.
2ipa on October 31, 2010 at 8:48 PM
2ipa:So far,so good!
canopfor on October 31, 2010 at 9:20 PM
Super Typhoon Tuesday!!
canopfor on October 31, 2010 at 9:21 PM
Wea ctually have a Hurricane brewing, Tomas!
bluemarlin on October 31, 2010 at 9:23 PM
Dec 7th 1941(November 2 2010)
==============================
Today,November 2 2010
a date which will live in infamy – the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the Liberal Party.
The DNC, therefore, undertaken a surprise offensive extending throughout the Tea Party area. The facts of yesterday speak for themselves. The people of the United States have already formed their opinions and well understand the implications to the very life and safety of our nation.
As Commander-in-Chief of the Army and Navy, I have directed that all measures be taken for our defense.
Always will we remember the character of the onslaught against us. No matter how long it may take us to overcome this premeditated invasion, the American people in their righteous might will win through to absolute victory.
I believe I interpret the will of the Tea Party and of the Patriots when I assert that we will not only defend ourselves to the uttermost but will make very certain that this form of treachery shall never endanger us again in our
Voting!!
Hostilities exist. There is no blinking at the fact that our people, our territory and our interests are in grave danger.Make Damn Sure You Vote.
With confidence in our armed forces – with the unbounded determination of our people – we will gain the inevitable triumph – so help us God.
I ask that the Congress declare that since the unprovoked and dastardly attack by the DNC on Sunday, December seventh, a state of war has existed between the United States and the Democrat Party.—-(Snark)
canopfor on October 31, 2010 at 9:25 PM
He’ll win because it’s a military district. Kissel and Etheridge should lose as well. I see Schuler as a very tough kill, but I’d love to see Price somehow go down. In many ways, that is the most Obamacentric district in NC. If Price can go down, Obama will not get reelected for sure.
TimTebowSavesAmerica on October 31, 2010 at 9:27 PM
Is it electioneering now to go to the polls with a slurpee in hand?
rslancer14 on October 31, 2010 at 9:28 PM
Super Typhoon Tuesday!!
canopfor on October 31, 2010 at 9:21 PM
==========================
Wea ctually have a Hurricane brewing, Tomas!
bluemarlin on October 31, 2010 at 9:23 PM
bluemarlin: Dam* Straight:)
===========================================================
There is a Storm brewing,and its coming in November,
its a Category #5 Sh*t Hurricane,and when its done,
LibTards will be covered in sh*t!!!!!!!!!!
canopfor on August 5, 2010 at 6:11 PM
canopfor on October 31, 2010 at 9:29 PM
Well, you need to make sure you’re on Tuesday evening and we’ll drink to 5 in NC and 4 in FL.
hawkdriver on October 31, 2010 at 9:33 PM
General Palin Speech
Somewhere in England
June 5th, 1944(November 2 2010)
——————————–
The big camp buzzed with a tension. For hundreds of eager rookies, newly arrived from the states, it was a great day in their lives.*(Conservative Republican Women Candidates)*
Palin strode down the incline and then straight to the stiff backed “Guard of Honor”.She looked them up and down. She peered intently into their faces and surveyed their backs.She moved through the ranks of the statuesque band like an avenging wraith and, apparently satisfied, mounted the platform with Lieutenant Michelle Bachmann and Major General Christine O’Donnell, the Corps Commander, at her side.
General Palin arose and strode swiftly to the microphone. The men snapped to their feet and stood silently.Palin surveyed the sea of brown with a grim look. “Be seated”, she said. The words were not a request,but a command. The General’s voice rose high and clear.
“Men, this stuff that some sources sling around about America wanting out of this Vote, not wanting to Vote, is a crock of bullshit. Americans love to Vote, traditionally. All real Americans love the sting and clash of battle. You are here today for three reasons. First, because you are here to defend your homes and your loved ones. Second, you are here for your own self respect, because you would not want to be anywhere else. Third, you are here because you are real men and all real men like to Vote. When you, here, everyone of you, were kids, you all admired the champion marble player, the fastest runner, the toughest boxer, the big league ball players, and the All-American football players. Americans love a winner. Americans will not tolerate a loser. Americans despise Liberals. Americans play to win all of the time. I wouldn’t give a hoot in hell for a man who lost and laughed. That’s why Americans have never lost nor will ever lose a war; for the very idea of losing is hateful to an American.”
“My men don’t surrender”, Palin continued, “I don’t want to hear of any Voter under my command being captured unless he has been hit. Even if you are hit, you can still Vote back.
“Don’t forget, “Palin barked, “you men don’t know that I’m here. No mention of that fact is to be made in any ballots. The world is not supposed to know what the hell happened to me. I’m not supposed to be commanding this Vote. I’m not even supposed to be here in Delaware. Let the first b*stards to find out be the Goddamned Liberals. Some day I want to see them raise up on their p*ss-soaked hind legs and howl, ‘Jesus Christ, it’s the Goddam*ed Third Army again and that son-of-a-f*cking-bitch Sarah Palin”.
(Snark).
============================================
http://pattonhq.com/speech.html
canopfor on October 31, 2010 at 9:33 PM
Try this again!
================
General Palin Speech
Somewhere in England
June 5th, 1944(November 2 2010)
——————————–
The big camp buzzed with a tension. For hundreds of eager rookies, newly arrived from the states, it was a great day in their lives.*(Conservative Republican Women Candidates)*
Palin strode down the incline and then straight to the stiff backed “Guard of Honor”.She looked them up and down. She peered intently into their faces and surveyed their backs.She moved through the ranks of the statuesque band like an avenging wraith and, apparently satisfied, mounted the platform with Lieutenant Michelle Bachmann and Major General Christine O’Donnell, the Corps Commander, at her side.
General Palin arose and strode swiftly to the microphone. The men snapped to their feet and stood silently.Palin surveyed the sea of brown with a grim look. “Be seated”, she said. The words were not a request,but a command. The General’s voice rose high and clear.
“Men, this stuff that some sources sling around about America wanting out of this Vote, not wanting to Vote, is a crock of bullshit. Americans love to Vote, traditionally. All real Americans love the sting and clash of battle. You are here today for three reasons. First, because you are here to defend your homes and your loved ones. Second, you are here for your own self respect, because you would not want to be anywhere else. Third, you are here because you are real men and all real men like to Vote. When you, here, everyone of you, were kids, you all admired the champion marble player, the fastest runner, the toughest boxer, the big league ball players, and the All-American football players. Americans love a winner. Americans will not tolerate a loser. Americans despise Liberals. Americans play to win all of the time. I wouldn’t give a hoot in hell for a man who lost and laughed. That’s why Americans have never lost nor will ever lose a war; for the very idea of losing is hateful to an American.”
“My men don’t surrender”, Palin continued, “I don’t want to hear of any Voter under my command being captured unless he has been hit. Even if you are hit, you can still Vote back.
“Don’t forget, “Palin barked, “you men don’t know that I’m here. No mention of that fact is to be made in any ballots. The world is not supposed to know what the hell happened to me. I’m not supposed to be commanding this Vote. I’m not even supposed to be here in Delaware. Let the first b*stards to find out be the Goddamned Liberals. Some day I want to see them raise up on their p*ss-soaked hind legs and howl, ‘Jesus Chr*st, it’s the Goddam*ed Third Army again and that son-of-a-f*cking-b*tch Sarah Palin”.
(Snark).
============================================
http://pattonhq.com/speech.html
canopfor on October 31, 2010 at 9:37 PM
I’m actually steaming mad right now – glad you’re enjoying it. My hard left fb friends are all marveling about how this poster is brilliant, funny, truthful, uplifting satire which is just what we need during these days of drear. They get very uppity when I say that the meme that we oppose him because of his race is a damnable lie. I think I’ll add some of their idiotic comments to my post tomorrow after I’ve cooled down.
Buy Danish on October 31, 2010 at 9:42 PM
Ditto. NC is an interesting state. It seems you’ve moved there from PA. Many people from FL who fall out of love with the state head to NC or GA. I don’t totally see it but you guys must be doing something right.
TimTebowSavesAmerica on October 31, 2010 at 9:42 PM
Prediction
-
Drudge Headline AM – It’s On
-
Drudge Headline PM - Wipeout
diogenes on October 31, 2010 at 9:43 PM
I lived in Raleigh-Durham for 7 years. Democrats in NC generally poll about 2-3% less than their acutal vote totals. It’s sad, but true. Don’t get your hopes up where NC is concerned. I hope I’m wrong.
SouthernGent on October 31, 2010 at 9:43 PM
Ok, I like your sh!t storm better! :)
bluemarlin on October 31, 2010 at 9:44 PM
Okay, in completely unrelated news – The US took the Miss World 2010 crown at the pageant hosted in China tonight. Miss World 2010 is an 18 year old American from Louisville, Kentucky who wants to be a teacher. And if you go look at her – it’s even more stunning she looks NOTHING like the plastic surgery types.
She’s the PRINCESS BRIDE. I am not kidding. Wholesome. American. Old Fashioned. It’s an omen for Tuesday. I don’t even believe in that stuff, but they just gave Buttercup the crown. See for yourself.
I will sleep like a baby now =)
ace tomato on October 31, 2010 at 9:46 PM
LOL – just saw a Tim Walz add highlighted the “RINO” endorsements he received.
Best example of guess the party I’ve ever seen.
gophergirl on October 31, 2010 at 9:53 PM
Well, we’re what, the fifth most politically corrupt state now according to a national survey? The long line of Democrat shenanigans here boggles the mind. Black, Eaisley, Purdue, Etheridge and now Tony Rand (An Andy Griffith favorite to campaign for) is caught up in a business scandal; just to name a few.
I’ve always thought we did worse than the polls say we were going to. Wonder why, wink, wink!
hawkdriver on October 31, 2010 at 9:53 PM
OY sorry for the bad grammar and spelling on the above post.
Time to call it a night obviously.
gophergirl on October 31, 2010 at 9:53 PM
Wow, no one was even considering the Princess Buttercup factor. But if we have that in our favor too, how can we lose? :-)
hawkdriver on October 31, 2010 at 9:57 PM
I was JUST wondering if someone would offer a sheet like this. THANKS !!
Prollem I have, is knowing how to print it out… any help ?
Nothing I do seems to work.
pambi on October 31, 2010 at 9:59 PM
Contrary to the posted table, Oregon’s polls don’t close at 11.00 p.m. EST.
Oregon doesn’t have ANY polls open at all. We do vote by mail.
Scribbler on October 31, 2010 at 10:00 PM
RI-1 is open with Kennedy departing.
bloghooligan on October 31, 2010 at 10:01 PM
Highlight it and “print selection”, or copy-paste it into Word if you want to avoid printing the comments.
Patrick Ishmael on October 31, 2010 at 10:04 PM
I would also bet my paycheck and I need every penny of it.
Dahlkemper is hosed.
I posted in the headlines thread that I think Campbell has much better than a 7% chance to take down Doggett in TX-25.
Remember Doggett was accosted by anti-Obamacare people in Austin, early in the healthcare fight. That was a shocker in and of itself.
Anyway, I think these numbers look a bit low in spots, so if it’s 8 EST and things are looking better than projected, that’s a sign of a great night.
Missy on October 31, 2010 at 10:07 PM
Wicked.
Of course, if you don’t take back the House at this point it’s going to seem like a worse defeat than 2006/2008.
Anyway, best wishes from this side of the border. It will be extremely gratifying to see Pelosi (astro?)turfed from office.
Gaunilon on October 31, 2010 at 10:13 PM
For what it’s worth, I obviously hope we get way, way more than 60-66 seats. Puh-lease.
Patrick Ishmael on October 31, 2010 at 10:13 PM
RE: post photo
Republican brass apparently figured out that control of the Senate depends on WV.
So they sent in Ted Nugent and Sarah Palin.
Ted Nugent. Sarah Palin.
Coddington van Vorhees the 7th weeps – admits total defeat.
forest on October 31, 2010 at 10:16 PM
Why isn’t Alaska on this list? Polls close at 1 am.
disa on October 31, 2010 at 10:26 PM
My bet is +88.
disa on October 31, 2010 at 10:26 PM
Alaska’s seat is currently held by a Republican, and isn’t really at risk.
Patrick Ishmael on October 31, 2010 at 10:28 PM
You might want to send them to http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=dFWxtUkHyXg and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeixtYS-P3. Morgan Freeman illustrates that racism is the practice of identifying and treating people differently because of their skin color, a practice that libs own, not Conservatives. (Just ask MLK, Jr.)
It won’t convert a lib–that would require them to develop the art of questioning one’s core beliefs without losing belief in their own personal value–overnight, but all you want right now is to shut up their childish antics, right? We can convert them during the next 2 years. Tonight’s goal is just to restore intelligence to the discussion.
rwenger43 on October 31, 2010 at 10:30 PM
I’m keeping my fingers crossed for a Mike Prendergast miracle to unseat the despicable Kathy Castor in FL 11.
sandspur on October 31, 2010 at 10:35 PM
Printing.. thanks Pat
pambi on October 31, 2010 at 10:37 PM
Me too! I’d love to see a Black Swan event of +150, but this is going to be wonderful anyway!
disa on October 31, 2010 at 10:44 PM
I prefer this cheat sheet…
http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Election-Night-National-Scorecard.pdf
and its predictions
Kermit on October 31, 2010 at 11:07 PM
Morgan Freeman CHOOSES to live in Mississippi and is friends with Haley Barbour.
Kermit on October 31, 2010 at 11:09 PM
I don’t know that the mere fact that Morgan Freeman did that voice over is an endorsement of Lawson. I thought so at first, but now I’m not so sure, particularly since he voted for you know who. Link to second video broken (“malformed”). Is it the black history month/60 minutes interview? That shows that M.F. is not an ideological leftist hack but it won’t do anything to convince these leftist dupes, except perhaps on the single issue he discusses.
Buy Danish on October 31, 2010 at 11:16 PM
I hope so. I thought we were doing a bit better in NC, as well. *sigh*
Voted Saturday. Lots of interesting conversations, as usual. Here’s to hoping!
Bee on October 31, 2010 at 11:24 PM
Good job with the cheat sheet, Patrick. I’ll defintely use this one.
Can’t wait for Tuesday. Been canvassing for my local GOP candidate, the anti-Democrat mood is just amazing. Expecting 3 GOP House seat pickups here in Colorado, including the Perlmutter seat which is ranked 96th on this list. I definitely think a 100 seat pickup is possible.
I am also quite hopeful for the Governor race, Tancredo has been surging everywhere in the state.
Norwegian on October 31, 2010 at 11:27 PM
Interesting! I think I’ll keep both lists:)
Buy Danish on October 31, 2010 at 11:29 PM
TEEEEEEEA NAMI !!!!
200 SEAT CONSERVATIVE PICKUP OR BUST!!
PappyD61 on October 31, 2010 at 11:40 PM
You are missing some low hanging fruit.
AL-5
yetanotherjohn on October 31, 2010 at 11:50 PM
Parker Griffith was a Republican. Briefly, but that puts this seat into the GOP incumbent category. You’re right, though, that it is solidly red.
Patrick Ishmael on October 31, 2010 at 11:56 PM
IN and KY close at 6PM, FYI.
Mayhem on November 1, 2010 at 12:04 AM
He is handling Marcy’s campaign against Thompson in MS.
FYI, we still buy something Danish everytime we go grocery shopping.
Kermit on November 1, 2010 at 12:51 AM
The Charleston Gazette “Ted Nugent, the “Motor City Madman,” plays a rock rendition of the national anthem as Sarah Palin and her husband, Todd, hold their hands over their hearts.”
Nearly Nobody on November 1, 2010 at 1:16 AM
Where is KS-3 ???
Although the “incumbent” (Dennis Moore – D) is not running, his wife is running in his place…because Dennis Moore is afraid to show his sorry face in public since he betrayed his constituents, turned off his phones, and refused to meet with either the press or his constituents.
We are going to hand the totally-unqualified wife of this sorry Democrat coward a huge, crushing defeat.
Kevin Yoder will win and put this seat in the “R” column, so this seat should count as a turnover…and it should be included in your list.
landlines on November 1, 2010 at 1:40 AM
It is on the list. It’s the 7th most likely GOP gain.
Patrick Ishmael on November 1, 2010 at 2:46 AM
Or right-click the list and select from the popup menu “This frame,” then “Print frame…” If you’d rather look at it before printing, then choose “This frame,”, then “Open in new window” instead of “Print frame”
/Alternate cat skinning
There Goes The Neighborhood on November 1, 2010 at 3:03 AM
Another method is to right click on the chart and then select the option to open the frame in a new tab/window.
powerpro on November 1, 2010 at 3:11 AM
Sad O dropped his ice cream.
Coronagold on November 1, 2010 at 6:36 AM
What about Hayes vs Triple J. My husband was walking the precincts for Hayes yesterday and many people he spoke to aren’t voting for Hayes as much as AGAINST Triple J.
Also, what about Pollak vs Schkowsky.
annoyinglittletwerp on November 1, 2010 at 8:10 AM
Bill Foster of the 14 Congressional District is a lying little worm who sided with Pelosi on every single item she shelled out, including cap and trade and health care!
I call him a bald faced liar (and would do so to his face if I had that chance!) because I emailed this clown when healthcare was up for vote so as to express my opposition to the bill and he said in a reply back (and I wish to God I had kept that email!) that he was busy reading the thing “cover to cover” and would then decide how to vote on it afterward. That he voted for the damned thing was expected, but for him to have read the thing cover to cover is virtually impossible!
That is why he is a liar and that is why he should NOT be re-elected!
pilamaye on November 1, 2010 at 8:17 AM
Turning in my absentee ballot today at the court house.
Was irritated that to replace Pomeroy, I’ve got to vote for Rick Berg.
That guy is a cheese@!ck. But better the cheese@!ck than the corrupt a-hole.
And of course Hoeven will win his race bcs Potter is absolutely pathetic: he always looks crazy & sounds crazy.
I did vote for some libertarians in some state positions.
Got some shake ups going on in our district, too. Thinks it’s going to turn red, which District 31 here in ND hasn’t been red for a while I think.
Badger40 on November 1, 2010 at 8:29 AM
Had coffee with Ilario late last week, just he and I…the internals show he is dead even, and I mean dead even…and these are internals from both parties.
However, a friend of mine knows one of the managers of McIntyre’s Wilmington headquarters…they are distressed, the Republicans are showing up and voting. They are bracing for defeat…the polls are not accurately predicting voter turnout, that is the wild card this election.
I hold true to my prediction…if dems are not 5% ahead in polling, they won’t win…however in McIntyre case I have to lower that to 2-3%, that still puts Pantano in the driver seat.
I will be at the hotel tomorrow, and we will have a party…
right2bright on November 1, 2010 at 8:40 AM
..if anyone wishes the equivalent of this made into an Excel spreadsheet, I have done so and will be glad to send it to you:
thewarplanner -at- gmail.com
The War Planner on November 1, 2010 at 10:39 AM
I am a Six-Sigma Eeyore but even I say 55 seats. I’d be willing to go higher if I were hearing about concerted GOTV efforts in PA where I live. But I’m not.
Lists like this are very useful to the candidates, so they can figure out who gets to tell Dictatrix Pelosi she’s fired. I am so hoping someone actually does that when the Rs get over the line.
Rs don’t get the Senate back but if Reid goes I’m uncorking the good stuff. Greasy little extortionist.
DrSteve on November 1, 2010 at 11:40 AM
Minnick is tied with Labrador in Idaho right now. Minnick has been running a sleazy campaign full of ads with lies. Could go either way, but folks in my neck of the woods don’t think much of what Minnick’s been doing.
http://www.examiner.com/conservative-in-spokane/new-walt-minnick-ad-shameful-deceptive
jdawg on November 1, 2010 at 6:37 PM
I didn’t see Virginia’s 1st district. Did I sleep through the secession?
oldleprechaun on November 2, 2010 at 4:46 PM
If you reorder the list from least likely to most likely pickup, it looks like the dividing line between DEM/GOP is at about the 47% mark. In other words the GOP is slightly overperforming compared to these probability estimates.
Adding them up, I’d say total gains will be between 65 and 70 seats.
Gaunilon on November 3, 2010 at 12:04 AM