Survey USA: Oberstar, Cravaack in dead heat for MN-08 seat

posted at 8:15 am on October 30, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Could the Republican wave that looks about to wash across the nation reach as far as Minnesota’s Iron Range and unseat an 18-term Democrat?  Three months ago, this seat didn’t appear on anyone’s radar except Chip Cravaack — but the former Navy pilot has a lot more experience with radar than most others.  Survey USA’s poll released late yesterday shows the Republican challenger only one point behind James Oberstar, who has worked in Washington almost 50 years:

DFL congressman Jim Oberstar, accustomed to winning with 65% or more of the vote in Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, finds himself running even with Republican challenger Chip Cravaack, heading into the final weekend of the campaign, a new SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis shows. Today, it’s 47% Oberstar, 46% Cravaack, a result within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error.

Oberstar holds almost all Democrats, his challenger holds almost all Republicans, but Independents in 2010, as they are doing in congressional districts across the country, break 5:3 Republican. Oberstar has an advantage among women, but the Republican has an offsetting advantage among men. Voters 50 and over favor Oberstar by 10 points; voters under 50 favor Cravaack by 14 points. If younger voters turn out in greater-than-usual numbers in this election, Cravaack will win. Those who rarely vote in midterm elections but who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to vote in this year’s contest back the Republican 5:4. Those who vote more frequently are divided. Voters who say they are more enthusiastic about voting in 2010 than they have been in prior years strongly back Cravaack; those less enthusiastic or no more or less enthusiastic than in the past strongly back Oberstar.

How long has it been since this district sent a Republican to the House?  Sixty-four years.  But the 8th CD has usually sent pro-life, fiscally conservative Democrats to Washington, which is exactly what Oberstar claimed to be.  After not only voting for ObamaCare and cap-and-trade but lobbying other Democrats to do the same, 8th CD voters now know that they sent a Nancy Pelosi clone.

And, hey — that’s been Betty McCollum’s job in MN-04.

The internals are definitely good for Cravaack.  He has a 24-point lead among independent voters, but he’s also pulling 11% of Democrats.  In the rural district, Cravaack has a narrow lead among those who own a gun, 49/44.  Most importantly, the 18-term incumbent has fallen below 50%, which indicates that the people of the 8th CD are looking for a change, and may have found their man in Cravaack.

Cravaack could shock the political world on Tuesday night.  He just needs one final push in the last three days.


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Comments

Ohh yahhh! Iron Rangers!

ted c on October 30, 2010 at 8:25 AM

Three days,till,T-Minus
WaterLoo at Wounded Knee,
er,Hopey’s Little Mid-Term
Big Horn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

canopfor on October 30, 2010 at 8:26 AM

I wouldn’t be surprised Ed.. The average Democrat voter (non radicalized) is in a get rid of all incumbents mood.

Keemo on October 30, 2010 at 8:28 AM

Could the Republican wave that looks about to wash across the nation reach as far as Minnesota’s Iron Range and unseat an 18-term Democrat?
===========================

Could the Sh*t Hurricane or Political
Tidal Wave reach Iron Range….YES!

Will it be ugly for Democrats….Yes!

Is it possible…..to fall in Team Rights reach….Yes!

Will the water sanitize the Liberal political swamp lands,
thick under brush,and all related rivers,and what-not in
various waterways………praying…..for..a..H*ll Yes!!

canopfor on October 30, 2010 at 8:32 AM

I wouldn’t be surprised Ed.. The average Democrat voter (non radicalized) is in a get rid of all incumbents mood.

Keemo on October 30, 2010 at 8:28 AM

Keemo: That sounds good to me!:)

canopfor on October 30, 2010 at 8:32 AM

How is this nut in a dead heat? Demorcats are such idiots if they actually like these morons.

jeffn21 on October 30, 2010 at 8:33 AM

Oberstar, Cravaack in dead heat for MN-08 seat
================================================

OberDeathStar possible ending!
——————————

Star Wars Death Star explosion

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bSefSLaPFs

canopfor on October 30, 2010 at 8:37 AM

CravAAAAAAAAAACK!

maverick muse on October 30, 2010 at 8:39 AM

Shove a political agenda down the throats of a free people while telling them “we know more about whats good for you than you do” makes me think Progressives are all about emotion rather than intelligence. Let’s take an honest look:
Obama > no signs that indicate he is an intelligent human
Pelosi > sinister and evil
Reid > average intelligence and hugely corrupt
Kerry > average intelligence and hugely narcissist
Bite me Biden > all signs indicate pure 100% moron
Babs Boxer > average intelligence and hugely corrupt
Edwards > lives his life using the penis brain

Oh, such a long list of morons…

Keemo on October 30, 2010 at 8:40 AM

heh. good one canopfor.

ted c on October 30, 2010 at 8:41 AM

Cravaack vs Oberstar in Duluth Mn.m4v

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mBJW7cK4qk&feature=related

============================================

Chip_Cravaack_Interview.flv

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_ttbcMHorY&feature=related
===========================================

Less than 16 percent of the Oversea Military Votes were were actually counted,once recieved in Minnesota!

canopfor on October 30, 2010 at 8:46 AM

This would be a sweet, sweet victory for the people of Minnesota and the nation. Oberstar is a pork-barrel politician, and has used federal tax dollars to grease his gears with little scrutiny from his constituents.

Appears his constituents are now paying attention.

IronDioPriest on October 30, 2010 at 8:47 AM

THREE…….

txmomof6 on October 30, 2010 at 8:47 AM

CravAAAAAAAAAACK!

maverick muse on October 30, 2010 at 8:39 AM

maverick muse:Yup!:)
============================================================

KHAAAAAAN!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRnSnfiUI54

canopfor on October 30, 2010 at 8:48 AM

heh. good one canopfor.

ted c on October 30, 2010 at 8:41 AM

ted c:)

canopfor on October 30, 2010 at 8:49 AM

Pelosi > sinister and evil

Oh, such a long list of morons…

Keemo on October 30, 2010 at 8:40 AM

Keemo:Morons alright!:)
==========================================================

The densest element in the known Universe has been found – Pelosium

Pelosium:
*********

A major research institution has just announced the discovery of the densest element yet known to science.

The new element has been named Pelosium.

Pelosium has one neutron, 12 assistant neutrons, 75 deputy neutrons, and 224 assistant deputy neutrons, giving it an atomic mass of 311.

These particles are held together by dark forces called

morons,

which are surrounded by vast quantities of lepton-like particles called peons.

The symbol of Pelosium is PU.

Pelosium’s mass actually increases over time, as morons randomly interact with various elements in the atmosphere and become assistant deputy neutrons within the Pelosium molecule, leading to the formation of isodopes.

This characteristic of moron-promotion leads some scientist to believe that Pelosium is formed whenever morons reach a certain quantity in concentration.

This hypothetical quantity is referred to as Critical Morass.

When catalyzed with money, Pelosium activates CNNadnausium, an element that radiates orders of magnitude more energy, albeit as incoherent noise, since it has half as many peons but twice as many morons as Pelosium.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2485914/posts

canopfor on October 30, 2010 at 9:00 AM

The Cook Report has moved seven “Solid Democrat” races to “Likely Democrat.” The list includes:
Frank Pallone of New Jersey, David Price of North Carolina, Peter DeFazio of Oregon, Jim Cooper of Tennessee, Lloyd Doggett of Texas, John Tierney of Massachusetts, and Dennis Kucinich of Ohio.
Now those would be true miracles.

Deanna on October 30, 2010 at 9:00 AM

canopfor on October 30, 2010 at 9:00 AM

LOL; you’re on a roll!

Keemo on October 30, 2010 at 9:07 AM

Cravaack the whip and send Oberstar down the long bike path to retirement!

ya2daup on October 30, 2010 at 9:21 AM

canopfor on October 30, 2010 at 9:00 AM

Okay, that one’s a keeper.

[copy/paste]

CPT. Charles on October 30, 2010 at 9:25 AM

I hate ‘dead-heat’ scenarios.

That’s when the zombie voters do the most damage.

CPT. Charles on October 30, 2010 at 9:33 AM

Why is it a dead heat? What is wrong with people? This should be a blow out and this old crank, along with many others, should be gone. And when this is over, win or lose, we need to raise He!! about military ballots. I am sick of inmates in Illinois prisons getting catered to and the military shut down.

Cindy Munford on October 30, 2010 at 9:37 AM

Oberstar’s been in Washington 50 years? Time to send him home to MN.

SilentWatcher on October 30, 2010 at 9:40 AM

And Oberstar wants that Carbon Regime

He represents the Iron Range. Iron ore is made into iron in blast furnaces which produce large quantities of CO2.

forest on October 30, 2010 at 9:42 AM

Why is it a dead heat? What is wrong with people? This should be a blow out and this old crank, along with many others, should be gone.
Cindy Munford on October 30, 2010 at 9:37 AM

Because his constituents vote for the guy who brings home the pork. It’s why Murtha, Byrd, Kucinich, etc. kept getting elected. When the voters in their states/districts finally don’t get what they want they will vote for someone else. Voters are selfish, they don’t care about what goes on in another state. They look out for themselves. Also, unfortunately there are people who agree with Liberal politicians. I hear them all the time where I live. The only real solution to this is term limits, but that probably will never happen.

Deanna on October 30, 2010 at 9:51 AM

canopfor on October 30, 2010 at 9:00 AM
—————————————

Keemo on October 30, 2010 at 9:07 AM

Okay, that one’s a keeper.

[copy/paste]

CPT. Charles on October 30, 2010 at 9:25 AM
===========================================

Keemo——-:I nearly died laughing first time
CPT. Charles:I found it!!:)

canopfor on October 30, 2010 at 9:56 AM

Deanna on October 30, 2010 at 9:51 AM

In 1995 the SCOTUS declared term limits unconstitutional. Naturally it was 5-4 decision with Justice Thomas writing the dissent. In reality we have the right of term limits every election. I have always questioned port. When I lived in Virginia Beach, I never understood by the nation’s citizens were responsible for replenishing our beaches. I hope we are at the start of a pay our own way, cash & carry period of our history.

Cindy Munford on October 30, 2010 at 10:06 AM

Deanna on October 30, 2010 at 9:00 AM

Doggett is my rep. This is the best chance we’ve ever had to give him the boot.

I definitely sense momentum for Campbell – I don’t know if it will be enough. Most of the Austin proglodyte slackers I know will probably stay home because they are disconnected and lazy, but I know plenty who have been sporting their little “I Voted” sticker too. Phhhbbbbtttt.

Missy on October 30, 2010 at 10:06 AM

Calm down.

Oberstar wins 56-42.

It’s the Iron Range.

The only upset in Minny is Demmer in the 1st, and that’s a big maybe.

Euphoria is fine 3 weeks out, but now it’s 3 days.

Leave Fantasyland and Magical Thinking to the Donks.

Good grief.

Bruno Strozek on October 30, 2010 at 10:23 AM

How is this nut in a dead heat? Demorcats are such idiots if they actually like these morons.

jeffn21 on October 30, 2010 at 8:33 AM

Sadly, people don`t get involved/pay attention enough, look how long Crist has stayed around!

bluemarlin on October 30, 2010 at 10:27 AM

Deanna on October 30, 2010 at 9:00 AM

Doggett is my rep. This is the best chance we’ve ever had to give him the boot.

I definitely sense momentum for Campbell – I don’t know if it will be enough. Most of the Austin proglodyte slackers I know will probably stay home because they are disconnected and lazy, but I know plenty who have been sporting their little “I Voted” sticker too. Phhhbbbbtttt.

Missy on October 30, 2010 at 10:06 AM

The best hope for Austin is all the growth spreading out towards Lakeway and the “straight Republican” choice on the ballot. Those residents aren’t progressive hippies who will sit home. Bye bye, Doggett.

Marcus on October 30, 2010 at 11:04 AM

Bruno Strozek on October 30, 2010 at 10:23 AM

I guess everyone should just stay home.

Cindy Munford on October 30, 2010 at 11:17 AM

Leave Fantasyland and Magical Thinking to the Donks.

Good grief.

Bruno Strozek on October 30, 2010 at 10:23 AM

Always with the negative waves, man.

Yeah, you’re right about one thing: If 51% of voters have your attitude, we can’t change nuthin.

This ain’t a normal year. And don’t discount the gifts Ober$tar and McGollum have given us this October! Be the Wave! or be the problem.

2ipa on October 30, 2010 at 11:26 AM

Idaho – 1 is also within striking distance of getting back in Republican hands. Minnick has the money advantage to blast the TV, but Labrador, a conservative immigration lawyer from Puerto Rico, is within the margin of error. ALL of Minnick’s ads are lying hit pieces on Labrador (the latest implying that he let a criminal escape, rather than the truth that he went from state custody into INS custody, was deported, and was re-arrested when he snuck back in.) SEEMS LIKE A FEDERAL ENFORCEMENT ISSUE
PS: I’m on Labrador’s website in the videos
click here to look and donate!

spudmom on October 30, 2010 at 12:44 PM

My mid-20s sister just moved back to Duluth last week from Mpls and I explained the other night just how important it is to vote to purge Oberstar from MN-8. She’d never heard Barry’s “car/slurpee” metaphor before and after watching a video of Barry in action, was so disgusted by the idiocy, that now she’s a sure lock to vote Craavack/GOP and everyone other Repub on the ballot (Emmer etc). Good thing registration only requires ID, a bill to prove you live where you live or bringing someone (with ID) to vouch she lives back at my parents house. She’s a recent graduate from the U of Minn in veterinary medicine who cannot find a job anywhere and now will be touring Ft Sam Houston and will join the Army veterinary corp.

Renwaa on October 30, 2010 at 12:48 PM

Because his constituents vote for the guy who brings home the pork. It’s why Murtha, Byrd, Kucinich, etc. kept getting elected. When the voters in their states/districts finally don’t get what they want they will vote for someone else. Voters are selfish, they don’t care about what goes on in another state. They look out for themselves. Also, unfortunately there are people who agree with Liberal politicians. I hear them all the time where I live. The only real solution to this is term limits, but that probably will never happen.

Deanna on October 30, 2010 at 9:51 AM

I suspect that some of Oberstar’s base blames him for not preventing the Northwest Airlines/Delta merger which removed NW’s HQ and much of its operations to Atlanta and other Delta hubs.

fiatboomer on October 30, 2010 at 1:03 PM

One thing that is different in MN this election year; Absentee ballots are counted at the county offices instead at individual precincts. This should cut down on fraud. Provided there are poll watchers at these locations too.

Dasher on October 30, 2010 at 5:58 PM

Oberstar’s been in Washington 50 years? Time to send him home to MN.

SilentWatcher on October 30, 2010 at 9:40 AM

Oberstar hasn’t lived in MN for many years.

Dasher on October 30, 2010 at 6:00 PM

I’ll be voting for Chip when I take out the trash next Tuesday.

Mirimichi on October 30, 2010 at 6:14 PM