Marist released its latest polls for races in four states yesterday evening, and the news looks good for Republicans — perhaps most in Pennsylvania, where the GOP could use some good news. After polls showed the races tightening in the Keystone State for Senate and governor, Marist now shows Pat Toomey with a seven-point lead over Joe Sestak with just a few days left. Tom Corbett likewise has a seven point lead over Dan Onorato, with both Republicans crossing the 50% marker.
Toomey leads 52/45, with only 2% left undecided in the race. Corbett has a 51/44 lead with 4% undecided. Both win wide margins with voters claiming to be “very enthusiastic,” a trend seen for Republicans in all four states. For Corbett,. it’s 59/36, and for Toomey it’s 55/37. The total sample had an 11-point Democratic advantage but the likely voters were R+2, which means turnout will be the entire ballgame. Barack Obama has spent a lot of time in Philadelphia attempting to rally the base, but that only will work in Philadelphia, where his approval rating is 78/18. In the state, he’s at a 47/46, and so far his efforts don’t appear to be paying off for either Sestak or Onoato.
WISCONSIN: Not too much surprising in this poll. Ron Johnson still enjoys a healthy lead over incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold among likely voters and a narrow one among all registered voters (52/45, 44/42). Scott Walker holds the same lead over Tom Barrett for Governor, 51/44. The White House appears to have chosen wisely in writing off Wisconsin this weekend, but that may come back to bite Obama when he attempts to win re-election.
COLORADO: Ken Buck holds a narrow 49/45 lead over incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet. Both candidates hold their parties well, and Buck wins a 6% edge among independents. Among the “very enthusiastic,” though, Buck has a 14-point lead, 55/41. In the gubernatorial race, John Hickenlooper holds a 4-point edge over Tom Tancredo, 47/43, but among the “very enthusiastic,” Tancredo leads 48/41. Colorado should be an interesting race to watch on Tuesday night …. or more like Wednesday morning.
WASHINGTON: Incumbent Patty Murray just can’t shake Dino Rossi, and this one has plenty of enthusiasm on both sides. Among likely voters, Murray leads by one point, 49/48. But among “very enthusiastic” voters, Rossi leads 51/48. Most of the votes in this race have already been cast, however, since most of Washington votes by mail. Those who say that they have already voted give the edge to Rossi, 49/48. We probably will have to wait until Thursday or Friday to know how this one ends.