Whitman coming back in CA?

posted at 3:15 pm on October 29, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

After a series of polls showed Meg Whitman losing ground to Jerry Brown in the California gubernatorial race, hope had begun to dim at keeping Brown from getting a third term in office 28 years after his second expired.  Rasmussen, however, shows some movement in the race.  Whitman now trails 45/49 in their final survey of the race, putting her on the outside edge of the margin of error:

With only a few days until Election Day, Democrat Jerry Brown holds a slightly smaller lead over Republican Meg Whitman in California’s gubernatorial race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Brown picking up 49% support, while Whitman draws the vote from 45%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are still undecided.

These numbers move the race from Leans Democrat back to a Toss-Up in theRasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard.

Last week, Brown held a 48% to 42% edge over Whitman. Support for Brown, a longtime Democratic figure in the state who previously served as governor from 1975 to 1983, has steadily risen from 40% in late August. Backing for Whitman, a former CEO of eBay, has fallen slightly from a high of 48% in the same period.

For some reason, Rasmussen didn’t provide the sample data as it has done throughout the general election period this year.  Last week’s sample gave Democrats a +7 turnout model in a state where they have a +13 registration advantage.  If Rasmussen changed that model, then it may account for the shift.

A few things have changed since the last poll besides the toplines.  Barack Obama’s approval rating went from a 54/44 to a 51/49, a change of eight points in the gap.  Arnold Schwarzenegger went from a 32/67 to a 35/64, a smaller change.  Given that the current Republican governor seems to be depressing Whitman’s reach in California, any improvement would help.

One point is consistent between the two polls, which is that Brown hasn’t gotten to 50%.  That’s less meaningful in a race to fill an open seat, but it does hint that the contest could be decided with a last-minute push.  The candidate with the resources for that needs it the most — and we’ll see whether Rasmussen or anyone else got the turnout model right.


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Ha California, we will probably get GOP Governor in IL. You can reclaim that last place spot in fiscal rankings once you have Brown again, but I hope you do not get Brown.

WashJeff on October 29, 2010 at 3:19 PM

I already absentee voted for both.

Mazztek on October 29, 2010 at 3:19 PM

I really don’t see why anyone would vote for Governor Moonbeam

Kini on October 29, 2010 at 3:19 PM

I consider this just about the least important race this cycle – CA is doomed either way until the Legislature is replaced – but I’d still love to see Jerry Brown slapped down.

The Lone Platypus on October 29, 2010 at 3:20 PM

Let’s go California!!!

You can do it!!

Easy to vote, just vote opposite of any union endorsed candidate or proposition

Ditkaca on October 29, 2010 at 3:21 PM

Turn out and Fiscal frustration will be the deciding factor in California.

A Red California would be a complete and utter judgment against Obamunism.

portlandon on October 29, 2010 at 3:21 PM

I hope Whitman fails. Let the Dems own the California Debacle.

VidOmnia on October 29, 2010 at 3:22 PM

Cali will do the wrong thing, just as here in Minnesota a crazy man is trying to take the reins of power and I have to admit I have a bad feeling.

BUT….hope springs eternal and I think Emmer will pull it out. Dayton and Brown are two nutheads from the past, and it’s time to put the past behind us.

Bishop on October 29, 2010 at 3:23 PM

Have YE FAITH,its going to be close!!

canopfor on October 29, 2010 at 3:24 PM

CALIFORNIANS: I have an inside source that reports that THE RECENT STATE POLLS HAVE OVER-SAMPLED LATINO VOTERS.

You must stand strong…and work, work, work this weekend as if your liberty depends on it.

Because it does!

Mutnodjmet on October 29, 2010 at 3:24 PM

Meh, let Jerry Brown take responsibility for the California economic apocalypse that is coming.

They can forget about a bailout after Tuesday.

SlaveDog on October 29, 2010 at 3:26 PM

I hope Whitman fails. Let the Dems own the California Debacle.

VidOmnia on October 29, 2010 at 3:22 PM

vindictive, much?

John the Libertarian on October 29, 2010 at 3:27 PM

Mutnodjmet on October 29, 2010 at 3:24 PM

Please enlighten us

ConservativePartyNow on October 29, 2010 at 3:28 PM

Everyone keeps using models from the 1990s forward.

What if the turn out is more like 1984? (not the book)

This feels more like a tide change election like the eighties.

Like the eighties Democrats have turned off so many people and their words are just not taken seriously.

Except in California. Why are they so unable to admit the idiocy of their state government? Why aren’t they so angry they reject Democrats forever? So many places are seeing truth, but not California. The government gave them IOUs! What in the world will it take to get them to think normally?

petunia on October 29, 2010 at 3:28 PM

California Elections and Voter Information

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/

canopfor on October 29, 2010 at 3:28 PM

and we’ll see whether Rasmussen or anyone else got the turnout model right.

And that’s the big mystery, not just in CA, but all across the USA. All of the pollsters are guessing at turnout. In one form or another, every major pollster has at some point in this election cycle thrown up their hands and said “we don’t know”. No one does. This may be a once in a lifetime event.

Or, maybe we’re all too cocky and the GOP will pick up 3 seats in the Senate and a couple dozen in the House.

Chris of Rights on October 29, 2010 at 3:28 PM

SlaveDog on October 29, 2010 at 3:26 PM

As sad as it is to think that way, I feel the same. Why put an R on the hook for a D problem?

strictnein on October 29, 2010 at 3:32 PM

Brown and his union cohorts have been vicious in their negative ads- real half-truth below the belt stuff. At a certain point I would hope people would get sick of it.
California will still do the right thing occasionally in a statewide election. The problem lies in the corrupt gerrymandering that cements in place real liberal bastions all along the coast.
So the legislature literally never changes.
That said, enough people who vote remember what a disaster Brown was 20+ years ago- Whitman can win this.

jjshaka on October 29, 2010 at 3:32 PM

Whoever wins will have a fight on their hands to cut California’s legislators spending, and turning on the water to the central valley.

Kini on October 29, 2010 at 3:33 PM

HI onestly don’t know why Whitman wants the gig.

She’ll end up as Arnold the 2nd, neutered by Sacramento and made a inconsequential figurehead.

It’s best if Cali crashes and burns under a Democratic dictatorship and explodes into nothingness.

Then they can start over.

rickyricardo on October 29, 2010 at 3:33 PM

Republican *evolution(1994)
===========================

The defeated and retired!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Revolution

canopfor on October 29, 2010 at 3:33 PM

Or, maybe we’re all too cocky and the GOP will pick up 3 seats in the Senate and a couple dozen in the House.

Chris of Rights on October 29, 2010 at 3:28 PM

“It’s going to be a bloodbath. Don’t doubt me.” — Rush Limbaugh

fossten on October 29, 2010 at 3:37 PM

I can’t believe that California will elect Brown a second time. If they do, they deserve what they get. This year more than any other year, established politicians are not acceptable. Take your chances with the new people.

Skandia Recluse on October 29, 2010 at 3:37 PM

Brown is an ADD-afflicted harlequin and that rare phenomenon of politician — a failure who has hung around long enough to outlast the generational memories of his failure. It’s as if Jimmy Carter tried to run for president again, counting on the fact that no one remembered how bad he was the first time around.

Kind of incredible, really.

But Whitman is an insipid opponent. I can’t speak to her competence as executive, but she sure doesn’t move people.

rrpjr on October 29, 2010 at 3:37 PM

rickyricardo on October 29, 2010 at 3:33 PM

Maybe Chris Christie can hold seminars for everyone on how to restore fiscal sanity to your state?

lorien1973 on October 29, 2010 at 3:37 PM

Except in California. Why are they so unable to admit the idiocy of their state government? Why aren’t they so angry they reject Democrats forever? So many places are seeing truth, but not California. The government gave them IOUs

What happens when you need a super majority to increase taxes but not one to pass spending bills. It’s a recipe for disaster.

bayam on October 29, 2010 at 3:38 PM

California can’t be helped. It will end up with the executive and legislative branches collapsed and being managed by a bankruptcy judge.

slickwillie2001 on October 29, 2010 at 3:39 PM

What if the turn out is more like 1984? (not the book)

petunia on October 29, 2010 at 3:28 PM

petunia:)
=============================================

United States Senate elections, 1984

Senate contests in 1984

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_1984
=====================

United States House of Representatives elections, 1984

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1984

canopfor on October 29, 2010 at 3:39 PM

Here in CA, it’s more important to be cool than smart. Image is everything to some people, looking like a rebel appeals to them. How the worn-out Dem ideas equate being a rebel is beyond me.

It’s drilled into their self-concept, it’s a reflex. Was talking with a guy about a local proposition for a bond for the little hospital here. Told him, their management is so bad, voting them more $ just gives them more to mismanage, they need a crisis to change their management practices. He agreed about management, but the idea of voting against money for a hospital totally shocked him, like it’s a sin or something.

jodetoad on October 29, 2010 at 3:41 PM

rickyricardo on October 29, 2010 at 3:33 PM

That’s a worry as well. Start over, at whose expense? The tax payers of every other state. Start over under who? Brown? That just lays the ground work for these liberals to make the same mistakes they’ve always made, and then we go to California obliteration, round 2.

capejasmine on October 29, 2010 at 3:41 PM

lorien1973 on October 29, 2010 at 3:37 PM

It would be like Mr. Hand talking to Spicoli.

NoDonkey on October 29, 2010 at 3:42 PM

No matter what happens, Californians need to understand one thing: American taxpayers are NOT going to bail you out. You have made a mess of your state yourselves; fix it yourselves.

Adjoran on October 29, 2010 at 3:42 PM

Look, all the polls are crap because they oversample dems. I know that sounds simplistic. It just happens to be a fact. Even Rass polls a lopsided number of dems.

As Doctor K says we are a center right country and he spelled out the split.

Having said all that, “rickyricardo on October 29, 2010 at 3:33 PM” is probably correct. Let them fail the same way that previous experiments in socialism/communism here in the US have.

I don’t say that facetously. Two hardcore attempts at it have been made here. One in Mass during teh time of teh first governor and the other in Texas! (I was pretty surprised when I read about that!)

We learn from failure and its consquences.

dogsoldier on October 29, 2010 at 3:43 PM

The real vote is Prop 23, the repeal of the Global Warming tax. If this doesn’t get repealed then CA is doomed. It’s more important who is governor, since it gives the Air Resource Boards (Enviro Nuts) almost complete control of who can produce CO2 (busness, cars, and gas).

Oil Can on October 29, 2010 at 3:44 PM

Hey good conservative people (like me and the people in the OC and San Diego) still live Cali. So stop wishing for a economic collapse…

BJ on October 29, 2010 at 3:45 PM

I can’t speak to her competence as executive, but she sure doesn’t move people.

rrpjr on October 29, 2010 at 3:37 PM

If that’s the case, then California’s collapse is inevitable.

Kini on October 29, 2010 at 3:45 PM

Hey good conservative people (like me and the people in the OC and San Diego) still live Cali. So stop wishing for a economic collapse…

BJ on October 29, 2010 at 3:45 PM

Awww I don’t wish that on you, or California. I think most are referring to your majority liberals, who keep voting for the same old people who create the same problems, and compound them. The last thing we want is for any State to fail…because if it does, it could affect every other state as well.

My prayers are going out to your state, that they see the light, and vote accordingly. Saying…enough is enough. There is a better way.

capejasmine on October 29, 2010 at 3:49 PM

The real vote is Prop 23, the repeal of the Global Warming tax. If this doesn’t get repealed then CA is doomed. It’s more important who is governor, since it gives the Air Resource Boards (Enviro Nuts) almost complete control of who can produce CO2 (busness, cars, and gas).

Oil Can

Oil Can: Then please PHONE BANK for YES on 23! The link to do so is here: ACTION FIRST VOLUNTEER CALL CENTER!

Mutnodjmet on October 29, 2010 at 3:50 PM

I want Brown to win. CA has to hit rock bottom for those idiots to understand what socialism means.

angryed on October 29, 2010 at 3:50 PM

From what I’ve read, Jerry Brown didn’t campaign yesterday, today, and may just avoid it until election day. He thinks he might be in the lead and he wants to avoid any gaffes.

El_Terrible on October 29, 2010 at 3:53 PM

Hey good conservative people (like me and the people in the OC and San Diego) still live Cali. So stop wishing for a economic collapse…

BJ on October 29, 2010 at 3:45 PM

Thank you, BJ!

Ditkaca on October 29, 2010 at 3:56 PM

Ha California, we will probably get GOP Governor in IL. You can reclaim that last place spot in fiscal rankings once you have Brown again, but I hope you do not get Brown.

WashJeff on October 29, 2010 at 3:19 PM

Illinois then: We’re the ‘Land of Lincoln’.
Illinois on November 3: We suck-but not as much as CA.

annoyinglittletwerp on October 29, 2010 at 4:00 PM

I swear, living here makes you so apathetic about local politics. I’ll vote for Whitman of course but I really don’t care that much since we’re screwed either way.
It takes some true “skill” to take one of the world’s best economies and turn it into what it is today. Nice job liberals. Truly your reverse Midas touch is something to behold.

Grayson on October 29, 2010 at 4:01 PM

Amen. I’m walking precincts for Carly and Meg tomorrow. Surfs up!!

KZnextzone on October 29, 2010 at 4:01 PM

I hope Whitman fails. Let the Dems own the California Debacle

VidOmnia on October 29, 2010 at 3:22 PM

If this is really your logic, then maybe your capacity to think and hope for the better is more aligned to Liberal Californians.

But of course, you are not. You are a conservative, exceptional American.

So repeat after me: WHITMAN WILL WIN! Thanks heaven. Californians will rise again.

TheAlamos on October 29, 2010 at 4:06 PM

Grayson on October 29, 2010 at 4:01 PM

What, you don’t think Jerry Brown can turn things around?

His idea to give welfare to 80% of the population sounds pretty promising.

NoDonkey on October 29, 2010 at 4:08 PM

I’m generally optimistic overall about this election, however as a former Californian, I’m pessimistic sanity will prevail in either the Senate race or the gubernatorial race.

Sorry – I hope I’m wrong.

CliffHanger on October 29, 2010 at 4:13 PM

Brown has the exact qualifications and credibility to head the state of California.

Whitman is way over qualified.

esnap on October 29, 2010 at 4:18 PM

Hey, I live in California! I can’t move because the real estate market is in the toilet and my house is a fixer upper anyhow. I’d get out if I could. So I’m praying for a Whitman/Fiorina win. I don’t want to be forced into bankruptcy by high taxes and a terrible economy. I’m too old to start over!

hachiban on October 29, 2010 at 4:37 PM

I hope Whitman fails. Let the Dems own the California Debacle.

VidOmnia on October 29, 2010 at 3:22 PM

..and, of course, if you don’t already live here, you will be moving out to California to enjoy the hardship you wished upon us? Listen pal, it’s easy to say sh*t like that but there are a whole bunch of us who are working our asses off here to see that Jerkwad Jerry does not pull off the hat trick.

Maybe if folks hadn’t gone so moonpie-gaga over O’Donnell (who has now closed within — what? a breathtaking 10 points of the bearded commie) some attention could be focused on Whitman, Fiorina, Van Tran, et al.

Aw fergit it. It’s just the sleepless nights from holding a regular job and volunteering for Meg, Carly, and Van Tran that’s getting ion my nerves.

The War Planner on October 29, 2010 at 5:15 PM

Even though she came off looking rather stiff, this weeks three-way sit-down might’ve helped to bump her numbers up.

Though I still think her refusal to go along with Brown on ending their negative ads might come back to haunt her.

The Ugly American on October 29, 2010 at 5:23 PM

The trick is not to get disenfranchised. The MSM will poke and prod, trying to make Republicans think there is no hope and voting would be a waste of time. We have to resist the urge to give up on the “Blue” California and make it RED again!

The Expert Knows

HAExpert on October 29, 2010 at 5:37 PM

I want Brown to win. CA has to hit rock bottom for those idiots to understand what socialism means.

angryed on October 29, 2010 at 3:50 PM

There are millions of us in California who understand very well what socialism means, and we don’t want it.

Lots of us are fighting TOOTH & NAIL against the tragic return of Gov Moonbeam.

Please don’t wish hell upon us.

Edouard on October 29, 2010 at 5:52 PM

Please, God… Cthulhu… Allahpundit’s cats… anyone! I can’t bear a third Brown term.

irishspy on October 29, 2010 at 5:52 PM

Please rest of the country don’t bail these as$holes out! You know that’s the next step.

hip shot on October 29, 2010 at 6:11 PM

Is this one of those odd Rasmussen Robo-call polls?

AnninCA on October 29, 2010 at 6:35 PM

I think CA voters are simply worn out. They tried the governor route. No dice.

You can’t work with that state legislature. That’s the truth. I wouldn’t matter if Mickey Mouse ran the state.

It’s a down-ticket issue.

AnninCA on October 29, 2010 at 6:36 PM

I really don’t see why anyone would vote for Governor Moonbeam

Kini on October 29, 2010 at 3:19 PM

The mind-blowing idiocy and self-destructive wantonness that is the SEIU/Public Workers Union/s in CA (as elsewhere, but particularly virulent in CA). They’ll vote for a vulture for Governor if the vulture wears purple.

Even CONSIDERING that Brown MIGHT win is mind-blowing. It’s utterly mind-blowing that just enough voters in the state of CA would even CONSIDER voting for the guy whose track record in public office is one of consistently ruining the state.

Lourdes on October 29, 2010 at 7:02 PM

From what I’ve read, Jerry Brown didn’t campaign yesterday, today, and may just avoid it until election day. He thinks he might be in the lead and he wants to avoid any gaffes.

El_Terrible on October 29, 2010 at 3:53 PM

= Jerry Brown, cockroach.

Lourdes on October 29, 2010 at 7:04 PM

While I understand the sentiment that dems should hang for the problems they intentionally caused to California, I also look to the New York City Giuliani model where he cleaned up the city after decades of democrap misrule. He gained great cred because of his efforts. Whitman might do the same, except that the democrap California Assembly and Senate might be too much for anyone, especially a Republican, to reform and control. And if the Cali voters refuse to vote the democraps out of their legislature, then they really deserve to sink into the pacific ocean of debt these same democraps have bequeathed them.

eaglewingz08 on October 29, 2010 at 7:48 PM

As I keep saying, again and again and again …

Do NOT believe ANY of the polls in California!

The Republicans are going to win many races and no-one is going to admit voting for any of them afterwards!

Bwaaahahahahahahahaaaaa!!!!!!!

Freddy on October 29, 2010 at 9:33 PM

Now that Brown is starting to air his ads, people are saying…no thanks.

PattyJ on October 29, 2010 at 10:25 PM

What, you don’t think Jerry Brown can turn things around?

His idea to give welfare to 80% of the population sounds pretty promising.

NoDonkey on October 29, 2010 at 4:08 PM

So it’ll be 80% instead of 70% huh? Well who’s counting at this point.

Grayson on October 29, 2010 at 10:30 PM

Except in California. Why are they so unable to admit the idiocy of their state government? Why aren’t they so angry they reject Democrats forever? So many places are seeing truth, but not California. The government gave them IOUs

What happens when you need a super majority to increase taxes but not one to pass spending bills. It’s a recipe for disaster.

bayam on October 29, 2010 at 3:38 PM

Higher taxes would not have increase the revenue stream; it would have just accelerated the Job flight out of the state, making the impending disaster hit sooner.

Slowburn on October 30, 2010 at 3:00 AM