Survey USA: Dead heat in Minnesota gubernatorial race

posted at 3:52 pm on October 29, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Forget what the Star Tribune and Humphrey Institute polls have said over the past week.  Survey USA shows the gubernatorial race as essentially tied with four days left to go.  DFL nominee Mark Dayton clings to a one-point lead over Republican Tom Emmer, while Independence Party nominee Tom Horner is playing spoiler for someone:

Impossible to say who has the late advantage in the Minnesota Governor’s race, according to SurveyUSA’s final pre-election tracking poll for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis. DFL candidate Mark Dayton has never trailed, but neither in 3 polls has he led by more than 5 points. Today’s it’s Dayton 39%, Republican Tom Emmer 38%, Independence Party candidate Tom Horner 13%. Horner complicates any analysis of the race. The 1 point difference between Dayton and Emmer reported here does not have statistical significance. The contest should be reported as even. Each of the 2 leading candidates has a chance to win.

Independent voters split: 37% for Dayton, 37% for Emmer, 17% for Horner. Tea Party supporters back Emmer 21:1. Moderates break 2:1 for Dayton. Emmer has a slight advantage among men, Dayton has a slight advantage among women, but this Gender Gap is less pronounced than in many other 2010 contests nationwide, where men are breaking sharply Republican.

Interestingly, the race is a complete dead heat among cell-phone users, suggesting that their inclusion may not matter as much in this race.  Both Dayton and Emmer get 35% and Horner improves slightly to 15%.  The only real difference is that cell-phone only voters are less certain of their vote, with 15% undecided as opposed to 3% among those with landlines at home.

Emmer does better with younger voters, winning the 18-34 and 35-49 demographics, while Dayton wins the 50-up categories.  Neither scores a majority in any of the age groups, while Horner takes a consistent 12-14% in each.  Emmer loses slightly more Republicans than Democrats (5%, 2% respectively) but Horner gets more Democrats than Republicans (13%, 11% respectively).  Emmer edges Dayton among those who “always” vote in midterm elections, 40/38, and in this cycle it seems as though that would be an advantage, since Republicans and independents are more likely to turn out this year.

There is one demographic that should give Emmer a ray of hope in the last few days.  He trails Dayton in the Twin Cities, where Democratic power resides — but only by five points, 37/42.  He also trails in the heavily union Northeast, 35/45, again closer than one would imagine for a Republican nominee.  If Chip Cravaack can manage a big turnout in MN-08, that edge in the Northeast may disappear and carry Emmer to victory on Tuesday night.

Emmer leads by 13 in southern Minnesota, and Randy Demmer may need that boost.  According to an earlier Survey USA poll in the 1st CD, Tim Walz has opened a nine-point lead over his Republican challenger.  Note, however, that Emmer’s numbers have apparently improved since:

In an election for US House of Representatives from Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District today, 10/27/10, incumbent DFL candidate Tim Walz remains atop Republican challenger Randy Demmer, 50% to 41%, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted for KAAL-TV in Rochester MN. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Walz has extended his lead, from 5 points then to 9 points now. Walz has traction with women, with voters age 50+ and with lower-income voters. Demmer has some momentum among younger voters. Independents break narrowly for the Democrat, one of the few places in the country in 2010 where that is true. In MN-01, the contest for Governor of Minnesota is effectively even, DFL candidate Mark Dayton 42%, Tom Emmer 41%. .

“Southern MN” presumably also encompasses part of MN-07, where Lee Byberg is running hard against incumbent Democrat Collin Peterson, so the new poll showing a 13-point Emmer lead in the region has to be benefiting at least one of the two Republicans.


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The poll is a mixture of good and bad. First, Emmer is hopefully closing the gap. But there’s some bad news as well. The old folk in this state have a strong attachment to the Dayton name. And that results in this:

Age 18-34
Emmer: 37%
Dayton: 34%

Age 35-49
Emmer: 44%
Dayton: 37%

Age 50-64
Emmer: 36%
Dayton: 41%

Age 65+
Emmer: 33%
Dayton: 46%

Thanks old folks.

strictnein on October 29, 2010 at 4:01 PM

If it’s close…….the Dem wins in MN

PappyD61 on October 29, 2010 at 4:01 PM

Emmer does better with younger voters, winning the 18-34 and 35-49 demographics

WOW – that’s huge

gophergirl on October 29, 2010 at 4:01 PM

If it’s close…….the Dem wins in MN

PappyD61 on October 29, 2010 at 4:01 PM

Emmer is not Coleman – he won’t lay down if it goes to a recount.

gophergirl on October 29, 2010 at 4:02 PM

If Craavik keeps Oberstar at 55% or less in the 8th Emmer wins by 2, maybe 3 thousand votes, tops.

The DFL cheat machine is greased and ready to roll if it’s close.

Bruno Strozek on October 29, 2010 at 4:06 PM

The Secretary of State in MN is bought and paid for by Soros.

Game over.

rickyricardo on October 29, 2010 at 4:07 PM

Emmer is not Coleman – he won’t lay down if it goes to a recount.

gophergirl on October 29, 2010 at 4:02 PM

It’s not about laying down. It’s about who counts the votes. And the person counting is the SOS. And the SOS is a Democrat who won election with George Soros money.

Soros SOS Project

angryed on October 29, 2010 at 4:09 PM

angryed on October 29, 2010 at 4:09 PM

I’m from Minnesota – I know all about our SOS

gophergirl on October 29, 2010 at 4:12 PM

Gophergirl:

Oh yeah that makes sense given your name. So you of all people should understand then that this race is going to be won by a Democrat. The Republican needs to win by 5%+ to win. And it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen.

angryed on October 29, 2010 at 4:14 PM

Hey…did “Lizard People” register as a write-in candidate for US Senator in AK?

WashJeff on October 29, 2010 at 4:14 PM

Hey…did “Lizard People” register as a write-in candidate for US Senator in AK?

WashJeff on October 29, 2010 at 4:14 PM

WashJeff:Not sure,da list!!:)
======================================================
Alaskan Candidate List.

November 2, 2010 General Election Candidate List
As of 10/28/2010

http://www.elections.alaska.gov/ci_pg_cl_2010_genr.php

canopfor on October 29, 2010 at 4:19 PM

Emmer was endorsed by Sarah Palin. I never would underestimate the power of Palin to pull him through.

technopeasant on October 29, 2010 at 4:28 PM

canopfor on October 29, 2010 at 4:19 PM

No lizard people, but that loooooong list of names is sweet!

WashJeff on October 29, 2010 at 4:32 PM

angryed on October 29, 2010 at 4:14 PM

Wise are you in the ways of the DFL Cheat Machine.

Bruno Strozek on October 29, 2010 at 4:36 PM

Uh oh … dead heat. Isn’t this well within the range of democrat voter fraud?

darwin on October 29, 2010 at 4:39 PM

Uh oh … dead heat. Isn’t this well within the range of democrat voter fraud?

darwin on October 29, 2010 at 4:39 PM

Theoretically, yes. But we’re watching this time and the Republicans will have poll watchers deployed all over the state to challenge the election day stuff — that will make it tougher for Ritchie and his gang.

Mr. D on October 29, 2010 at 4:59 PM

Moderates break 2:1 for Dayton.

These people are not moderates if they believe in anything Dayton is selling. His message is boilerplate DFL talking points. Dayton is farther left than the DFL endorsed primary candidate was.

I’m interested in seeing the results of the the same firm’s MN-08 poll. I got the call last night.

AScott on October 29, 2010 at 5:06 PM

Is this Al Franken’s MN we are talking about? That any Dem can even be close anywhere in this election is disgusting. What more do people need to see?

neuquenguy on October 29, 2010 at 5:17 PM

Age 65+
Emmer: 33%
Dayton: 46%

Hope you enjoyed all of the opportunities your grandparents left you. Too bad you s**t on your own grandkids. When is the last time a major employment opportunity was added in Minnesota? Can’t build a power plant, can’t build a bridge.

Once again. Thank you for s**tting on future generations.

MNHawk on October 29, 2010 at 5:59 PM

It’s because they look exactly alike. People don’t know which is which.

miConsevative on October 29, 2010 at 6:40 PM