So much for the VA-05 firewall

posted at 2:37 pm on October 29, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Democrats have to take a stand somewhere for their midterm firewall in the House, and according to Politico, they have dug the trench in Virginia’s 5th CD.   The DCCC has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to save Tom Perriello from defeat, and over the last two weeks independent groups have spent $1.6 million, mainly attacking Perriello’s opponent, Robert Hurt.  And a Very Special Guest Star will make an appearance in the district this weekend, too:

No one can say they didn’t try to save Tom Perriello.

In the last days of the 2010 campaign, the first-term Virginia congressman’s reelection bid has become a rallying point for Democrats nationwide, as party leaders and left-leaning interest groups scramble to ensure that at least one vulnerable liberal lawmaker is left standing after Nov. 2.

President Barack Obama is headed to Charlottesville, the populous college town at the heart of Perriello’s district, to drum up support for him on Friday. Obama praised Perriello during a mid-October rally in Washington, calling him a “great guy” who has taken risky votes and “just done what’s right.” The president talked about him again on “The Daily Show” Wednesday night. …

At least a half-dozen pro-Democratic groups have spent six-figure sums over that time period, and four – the League of Conservation Voters, the Sierra Club, the National Education Association and the America’s Families First Action Fund – each have put in more than a quarter-million dollars.

“I’ve never seen anything like it, ever,” said University of Virginia professor Larry Sabato, who’s one of Perriello’s constituents. “You can’t turn on the television without seeing 10 ads in a row, and I would say seven are for Perriello.”

How has the blitz fared?  Has the firewall held?  According to Survey USA, it isn’t even close:

Democrats declare “all in” in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District, where, 5 days until votes are counted and 24 hours until Barack Obama rides to the rescue, you can argue the case both ways: in favor of a stunning upset for incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello, who has trailed in every pre-election poll this cycle, or, a lot of fuss for no reason, about a district that was bound to go Republican in 2010, even though all the King’s horses and all the King’s men tried to put Perriello back together again.

Of the handful of Virginia voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Perriello has a big advantage. Maybe his supporters are singularly motivated, and those who have not yet voted are “all talk.” SurveyUSA asks the Virginians who have not yet voted how likely they are to vote on a 1 to 10 scale, and in this contest, SurveyUSA accepts ’9′ and ’10′ answers as ‘likely voters.’ It turns out the ’9′ likely-voters back the Democrat Perriello, by a lot. More good news for the Democrat. But: the ’10′ likely voters, the ones who are exceptionally charged up, the ones who are rarin’ to go, back the Republican Robert Hurt. When SurveyUSA combines the small group of Virginians who have already voted, and the likely-to-vote 9′s with the likely-to-vote 10′s, the blended result is, Hurt 51%, Perriello 43%, a new Republican seat in the House. Can President Obama siphon 10 percent of Hurt’s supporters to Perriello, or twice the number of undecided voters to Perriello, which is what it would take to hold this one seat symbolically for the Democrats? We’ll know on Tuesday.

Women are moving slightly to the Democrat in this 5th and final tracking poll for WDBJ-TV, but men are moving to the Republican. Independents are not budging; they break 2:1 Republican. Perriello has gained ground among more affluent voters, where he still trails, has effectively caught Hurt among lower-income voters, and has leapfrogged Hurt among voters age 50 to 64.

Without question, the big push moved the needle a little in the district; Hurt had been leading by double digits a few weeks ago.  But sitting eight points back with four days to go is not exactly a worthwhile investment of last-minute campaign funds.  This is an R+5 district, although it has tended to elect Democrats for most of the last several decades.  Perriello is a freshman who normally wouldn’t have the importance to warrant a presidential rescue (for whatever that’s worth in VA-05), nor a dollar dump amounting to millions of dollars.

So why has Perriello soaked up the resources, rather than a Democrat with a narrower gap to close in the polls, or one with more importance to leadership?  To some extent, it’s loyalty.  As Politico notes, Perriello took “suicidal” votes to support ObamaCare and especially cap-and-trade, which would deliver a huge blow to the coal economy in Virginia.  Of course, that loyalty to the Obama agenda cuts both ways, and Hurt has been running ads blasting him for it as a rubber stamp for Obama and Nancy Pelosi, an impression that Obamas’ visit over the weekend will only reinforce.   Democrats are gambling that the visit will boost voter turnout:

In a memo released this week, Republican pollster Glen Bolger detailed just how risky an Obama visit might be for Perriello: Fifty-four percent of voters in the district disapprove of his performance as president, according to Bolger’s polling, versus 44 percent who approve. The deficit is even wider among white voters: 66 percent disapprove of the president, compared with 32 percent who approve.

Democrats are looking at a different set of numbers. The same poll from Bolger’s firm, Public Opinion Strategies, showed that Obama retains pockets of support in the district, with 93 percent approval from African-American voters and a 51 percent approval rating in relatively liberal Charlottesville.

So the other side of the argument is this: Voters who intensely dislike Obama might vote against Perriello anyway, so why not try to max out Democratic turnout by revving up the base?

If that was really the case, then why is the President’s team keeping Obama out of places like Wisconsin, Kentucky, and nearby West Virginia, where Democrats in the Senate are running even closer than Perriello to Hurt?  This is more Hail Mary than firewall.  The White House must figure that this race is so lost that a last-minute appearance can’t possibly do any more harm, and will make it look as though Obama rewards loyalty to his agenda.

That doesn’t mean that Hurt can sit back and rest, nor is he.  His website is using the Obama visit for last-minute fundraising.  They may be looking at final-hours ads featuring a presidential hug or two to underscore their point about Perriello being a vote for the radical Obama/Pelosi agenda.


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Kelley in Va will approve this message

stldave on October 29, 2010 at 2:40 PM

Build the wave higher, get rid of all the stuck turds.

tarpon on October 29, 2010 at 2:41 PM

If voters like Obama – they are already voting for the Dem.

If they don’t – what do they care if he visits their town.

We’ve heard everything Obama has said. It won’t make a difference.

NoDonkey on October 29, 2010 at 2:43 PM

Of the handful of Virginia voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Perriello has a big advantage. Maybe his supporters are singularly motivated, and those who have not yet voted are “all talk.”

I’m pretty sure VA doesn’t have early voting. If these are absentee voters, there couldn’t have been very many of them.

ladyingray on October 29, 2010 at 2:43 PM

Looks like O’D in Delaware is also doing better than many predicted. She may yet pull it out.

dogsoldier on October 29, 2010 at 2:43 PM

Welcome to Virgina, Mr. President. Your last visit for Creigh Deeds was very well received. I’m sure the results will be the same this time too.

tims472 on October 29, 2010 at 2:45 PM

There’s an arugula wholesaler in Charlottesville.

BobMbx on October 29, 2010 at 2:45 PM

I think this is more of a “thank you for sacrificing your career for my Marxist agenda” visit by Obama, and a bone being thrown to the national progressive groups who adore Periello. They can’t possibly believe they can actually win this race. They would be better off trying to stave off potential upsets of Jim Moran, Rick Boucher, and Gerry Connolly.

I wonder what Jim Webb is going to do after next week. He’s been awfully quiet this year, don’t you think??

rockmom on October 29, 2010 at 2:46 PM

Hurt supposedly isn’t a great candidate, and I don’t think he’s spent/raised that much dough either. Take away those factors and this would be a 20 point rout.

BuzzCrutcher on October 29, 2010 at 2:48 PM

Hmmmm. So, to be consistent with the polls Dems are comfortable with, 93% of white people should approve of the white candidate, whoever he is, even David Duke… right?

It’s a sad joke.

jamie gumm on October 29, 2010 at 2:49 PM

Obama is paying a visit to Perriello to administer last rites.

truth

ted c on October 29, 2010 at 2:50 PM

This happens to be my district and the ads for Perriello have been non-stop.

He’s spent 4 months claiming to be an “independent voice” for the 5th District. No doubt millions of dollars spent on distancing himself from Obamacare, Obama and Pelosi.

And then in the final days Obama comes to the liberal stronghold of the district to show his support for Perriello.

It’s no doubt a hail mary with a “nothing to lose” mindset. But I was shocked Obama’s coming to Charlottesville. Anyone that is going through the effort to see Obama is undoubtedly already going to vote anyway. I mean, it will take hours out of a person’s day to see him due to the absolutely horrible traffic conditions in Ch’ville.

No casual observer is going to just happen to mosey over.

ButterflyDragon on October 29, 2010 at 2:50 PM

NoDonkey on October 29, 2010 at 2:43 PM

Maybe they haven’t heard the car-ditch-slurpee story yet. That’ll convince ‘em.

cjtony97 on October 29, 2010 at 2:51 PM

I wonder what Jim Webb is going to do after next week. He’s been awfully quiet this year, don’t you think??

rockmom on October 29, 2010 at 2:46 PM

He will do whatever he thinks will save his a$$ in 2012. And whatever that is, I hope it fails.

Extrafishy on October 29, 2010 at 2:51 PM

A visit from The One is like Last Rites.

RedNewEnglander on October 29, 2010 at 2:53 PM

They would be better off trying to stave off potential upsets of Jim Moran, Rick Boucher, and Gerry Connolly.

rockmom on October 29, 2010

I’m thinking this might actually hurt Boucher a little bit, as the Obama visit will get coverage on stations that reach
into Bocher’s district. And you’re right, Webb has been mighty quiet (so too our other “moderate” senator, Mark Warner).

BuzzCrutcher on October 29, 2010 at 2:53 PM

“Thanks for smashing yourself with that ObamaCare vote, pal, I’ve got to get back to DC now. Hot date with a golf course and all that, you understand. Good luck.”

-PBHO

Bishop on October 29, 2010 at 2:53 PM

Pollsters know their polls are off by 12-15%. Now is when they start fixing them.

barnone on October 29, 2010 at 2:55 PM

Will it be the Slurpee or latte speech?

Fallon on October 29, 2010 at 2:55 PM

I wonder what Jim Webb is going to do after next week. He’s been awfully quiet this year, don’t you think??

rockmom on October 29, 2010 at 2:46 PM

Right now, Webb is sitting on military O-6 and above promotions, preventing them from going forward essentially, as he is in a snit over the planned consolidation/closure of the Joint Forces Command down in Norfolk.

coldwarrior on October 29, 2010 at 2:56 PM

Obama doesn’t really want to fly around campaigning. It’s too much like actual work. He’d rather be golfing. I suspect he’s just mailing it in.

fossten on October 29, 2010 at 2:58 PM

Here is the speech O will give for Tom (courtesy of Iowahawk)

tims472 on October 29, 2010 at 3:00 PM

President Barack Obama is headed to Charlottesville, the populous college town at the heart of Perriello’s district, to drum up support for him on Friday.

Hmm. Will Obama still stay on the fundraising-campaign trail and ignore the UPS/terrorist threats? More popcorn, please!

LASue on October 29, 2010 at 3:00 PM

Today, BHO’s motorcade will drive down US29 into Charlottesville, right past the place where I’m going to stop for a slurpee.

ted c on October 29, 2010 at 3:03 PM

So how did McDonnell vs. Deeds go in that CD? I’d figure that would give a pretty good indication of the race now. And Obama has only a 51% approval rating in Charlottesville, a liberal college town? He’s right: the difference between now and ’94 is “we’ve got him.”

jwolf on October 29, 2010 at 3:05 PM

I am reminded of the wave from the tsunami that hit DC in the movie 2012, it’s going to big on Tuesday. I saw on MSNBC, (yeah I know) that they are anticipating a wave of a pickup of possibly 80+ seats for the GOP. Can we party like it’s 1894

ConservativePartyNow on October 29, 2010 at 3:06 PM

Drat.. I thought for a moment that this thread was about a new installment of Bill Whittle’s Firewall. ;-)

itzWicks on October 29, 2010 at 3:07 PM

Today, BHO’s motorcade will drive down US29 into Charlottesville, right past the place where I’m going to stop for a slurpee.

ted c on October 29, 2010 at 3:03 PM

7-11 must be going gangbusters.

ElectricPhase on October 29, 2010 at 3:09 PM

“Hey, why is the water going away from the shore?……hey what’s that big tall thing out there?…..”Hey do you hear that noise?”

“tea……….NAMI !!!!”

PappyD61 on October 29, 2010 at 3:09 PM

ConservativePartyNow on October 29, 2010 at 3:06 PM

“Deep Impact” You got your basic asteroid strike AND a tsunami.

dogsoldier on October 29, 2010 at 3:11 PM

HotAir has what, about 250K people hitting it each day? If one out of five viewers sent just $10 to the candidates where Obama’s popping into the race, that’s $50,000…..

cthulhu on October 29, 2010 at 3:11 PM

So how did McDonnell vs. Deeds go in that CD? I’d figure that would give a pretty good indication of the race now. And Obama has only a 51% approval rating in Charlottesville, a liberal college town? He’s right: the difference between now and ’94 is “we’ve got him.”

jwolf on October 29, 2010 at 3:05 PM

Deeds got beaten by McDonnell in VA-5 (and just about everywhere else too by double digits IIRC).

ted c on October 29, 2010 at 3:11 PM

jwolf on October 29, 2010 at 3:05 PM

61% – McDonnell
39% – Deeds

Like I said before. Enjoy your visit, Mr. President!

tims472 on October 29, 2010 at 3:13 PM

I think it is going to be bigger than anyone imagines.

I’m here in Northern VA where Jim Moran–John Murtha’s best friend and spitting image in both personality and ethics–has ruled for decades.

And my Dem friends are all ready to vote for the GOP challenger Partick Murphy. Maybe it won’t happen, but the feeling in the air right now is that it just might.

Kasper Hauser on October 29, 2010 at 3:14 PM

If one out of five viewers sent just $10 to the candidates where Obama’s popping into the race, that’s $50,000…..

I sent $50 to Fiorina and $30 to McClung. Anyone know how Bielat is doing?

LASue on October 29, 2010 at 3:15 PM

thanks tims; I thought Deeds got curbstomped, but I thought it was only 9 points. So, I guess 22 points does qualify as a “curbstomping.”

ted c on October 29, 2010 at 3:16 PM

Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy/

Perriello is one of those ‘progressive liberal left social justice’ types who uses the religion to defend communism, sorry, the “common good”.

Buy Danish on October 29, 2010 at 3:16 PM

I sent $50 to Fiorina and $30 to McClung. Anyone know how Bielat is doing?

LASue on October 29, 2010 at 3:15 PM

he may be withing MOE there, but I sent him $17.73 yesterday.

ted c on October 29, 2010 at 3:16 PM

cjtony97 on October 29, 2010 at 2:51 PM

Yes that will go down in history.

The Gettysburg Address.

“A day that will live in infamy”.

And? The slurpee story.

We used to have Presidents who were Giants.

Now we have tinpot Malcolm X wannabees, begging for a spot on the Comedy Network.

NoDonkey on October 29, 2010 at 3:19 PM

Today, BHO’s motorcade will drive down US29 into Charlottesville, right past the place where I’m going to stop for a slurpee.

ted c on October 29, 2010 at 3:03 PM
7-11 must be going gangbusters.

ElectricPhase on October 29, 2010 at 3:09 PM

Dh says he’s going to 7-11 Tuesday, and then going to stand out in front of the polling place with his Slurpee.

CJ on October 29, 2010 at 3:21 PM

Kasper Hauser on October 29, 2010 at 3:14 PM

Moran was my Congressman for almost a decade.

What an absolute rotten piece of worthless garbage that corrupt, thieving idiot is.

That being said, I’ll be truly astonished if he loses. But I want to see the concession speech, I think it will consist of two words and the second will be “YOU!”.

NoDonkey on October 29, 2010 at 3:21 PM

I thought Obama only campaigned with jesters and comedians…oh wait…

right2bright on October 29, 2010 at 3:24 PM

tims472 on October 29, 2010 at 3:13 PM

Thanks for the McDonnell-Deeds results from Boucher’s CD. Hard to believe this race could be even close — and I suspect it really isn’t. Hope so, anyway.

jwolf on October 29, 2010 at 3:26 PM

NAME:Perriello, Thomas
RANK: PFC
UNIT: 1st Obamacare Martyr’s Brigade
STATUS: Expectant

PFC Perriello lies mortally wounded from his self-inflicted injuries after Nancy Pelosi handed him the gun that he shot himself in the foot with. While Perriello was out in front of his district he’d listen and gather information, then march to DC and follow another general’s orders and completely ignore those orders from GEN “We the People” in VA-5. Mr. Perriello will be remembered for standing in the shadow of Thomas Jefferson’s grave and acting completely antithetical to the principles that Mr. Jefferson outlined in the Declaration of Independence that the current officeholder cannot accurately, nor consistently quote, nor understand. Mr. Perriello’s short time in Congress will be remembered by a 3 sec dimming of lightbulbs and turning off of ceiling fans all across the fifth district this evening as he goes into the political pine box onstage at the Charlottesville pavilion. His eulogy will be read, people will stand and clap, and the last rites shall be administered. The pall bearers will assemble on the eve of 2NOV and transport the sorry career of Mr. Perriello into the fog of political and personal obscurity in the area surrounding Ivy, VA where he shall lament and wander as he forever contemplates the misrepresentative behavior he has engaged in over the last 2 years.

In lieu of flowers please send coffin nails to VA-5.

ted c on October 29, 2010 at 3:27 PM

So how did McDonnell vs. Deeds go in that CD? I’d figure that would give a pretty good indication of the race now. And Obama has only a 51% approval rating in Charlottesville, a liberal college town? He’s right: the difference between now and ’94 is “we’ve got him.”

jwolf on October 29, 2010 at 3:05 PM

61% – McDonnell
39% – Deeds

Like I said before. Enjoy your visit, Mr. President!

tims472 on October 29, 2010 at 3:13 PM

Further in that link, Charlottesvile (the place with Obama approval ratings 51%) voted for Deeds: 74%-26%

They also voted for Obama in ’08: 78%-20%

So if he’s only pulling 51% in Charlottesville, Perriello is seriously screwed.

Abby Adams on October 29, 2010 at 3:28 PM

It’ll be interesting to see if Survey USA’s models are correct. They’ve shown big leads for Hurt, while other polls show a tighter race.

I will say that Charlottesville is the best place in the district that Obama could visit. At the Hurt-Perriello debate in Lynchburg, Hurt got a lot more applause and approval from the crowd, especially when the health care bill came up. C’ville is a lot more liberal.

hawksruleva on October 29, 2010 at 3:33 PM

Today, BHO’s motorcade will drive down US29 into Charlottesville, right past the place where I’m going to stop for a slurpee.

ted c on October 29, 2010 at 3:03 PM

Picture of you raising a ‘slurpee toast’ to the motorcade would be PERFECT !!

pambi on October 29, 2010 at 3:36 PM

I’m pretty sure VA doesn’t have early voting. If these are absentee voters, there couldn’t have been very many of them.

ladyingray on October 29, 2010 at 2:43 PM

You are correct. No early voting here so I don’t know how they get a hold of absentee voters so easily. Sounds like BS to me.

I can echo others here. The ads on TV and radio are non-stop. I had three robo calls yesterday and have stopped answering my home phone.

VA-5 would be a conservative district if it wasn’t for Charlottesville/Afton. So many hippie-dippie types it’s not even funny. Fortunately from me, I am at the other end of the district so the stench is bearable.

BierManVA on October 29, 2010 at 3:37 PM

C’ville is a lot more liberal.

hawksruleva on October 29, 2010 at 3:33 PM

true, but there are some of us insurgents here to balance it out.

ted c on October 29, 2010 at 3:37 PM

Today, BHO’s motorcade will drive down US29 into Charlottesville, right past the place where I’m going to stop for a slurpee.

ted c on October 29, 2010 at 3:03 PM

Good Golly! 29 on a good day is horrible. What’s it going to be like today. Good luck with that slurpee. You may have time for 2 or 3 if you get stuck.

Oldnuke on October 29, 2010 at 3:38 PM

true, but there are some of us insurgents here to balance it out.

ted c on October 29, 2010 at 3:37 PM

You live in C’ville! Welcome! The same is true of Hokie fans in that town ;-)

hawksruleva on October 29, 2010 at 3:38 PM

VA-5 would be a conservative district if it wasn’t for Charlottesville/Afton. So many hippie-dippie types it’s not even funny. Fortunately from me, I am at the other end of the district so the stench is bearable.

BierManVA on October 29, 2010 at 3:37 PM

right. Mr. Jefferson turns slowly in his grave as he sees what his beloved University has become…

*sigh*

ted c on October 29, 2010 at 3:39 PM

Picture of you raising a ‘slurpee toast’ to the motorcade would be PERFECT !!

pambi on October 29, 2010 at 3:36 PM

Nope. Secret service would have him arrested for threatening the Presidential “Dude”.

tims472 on October 29, 2010 at 3:39 PM

A few months ago, Yale Alumni Magazine ran a puff piece on Perreillo entitled “The Virginia Experiment – Is Tom Perriello ’96, ’01JD, a new kind of congressman? Or just the kind who doesn’t get reelected?” (http://www.yalealumnimagazine.com/issues/2010_05/perriello4655.html)

Looks like we have our answer.

cool breeze on October 29, 2010 at 3:39 PM

Good Golly! 29 on a good day is horrible. What’s it going to be like today. Good luck with that slurpee. You may have time for 2 or 3 if you get stuck.

Oldnuke on October 29, 2010 at 3:38 PM

I need to pack up and head home, live near the airport so I need to stop screwing around on hotair and beat feet to the casa.

ted c on October 29, 2010 at 3:40 PM

Nope. Secret service would have him arrested for threatening the Presidential “Dude”.

tims472 on October 29, 2010 at 3:39 PM

oohh dude, i have an epiphany. How about I get the truck “stuck” in the ditch….maybe POTUS would stop by and help me out….it’ll give me the chance to grabs my slurpee, stand on the side of the road and enjoy some righteous comedy gold.

ted c on October 29, 2010 at 3:41 PM

ted c on October 29, 2010 at 3:41 PM

Hilarious! Do it!

tims472 on October 29, 2010 at 3:43 PM

Hurt managed to take a huge lead down to 10 points or under. In other words, he was way ahead until he started campaigning. Boring candidate.

With all the ads, I still don’t know if he is really a Conservative or not. I’m leaning towards he’s not. But even a moderate Republican is better than the very liberal Periello.

huckleberryfriend on October 29, 2010 at 3:44 PM

VA-5 would be a conservative district if it wasn’t for Charlottesville/Afton. So many hippie-dippie types it’s not even funny. Fortunately from me, I am at the other end of the district so the stench is bearable.

BierManVA on October 29, 2010 at 3:37 PM

Of course, without UVA Ch’ville would die. An entire city that lives off the teat of the federal government.

Fortunately I live just outside of Ch’ville in Fluvanna and don’t have to deal with the idiots on a daily basis. I even refuse to watch the local news so I don’t have to put up with their inane propaganda.

ButterflyDragon on October 29, 2010 at 3:44 PM

ted c on October 29, 2010 at 3:40 PM

Lightbulb just came on over my head. Finally figured out why The Won is shilling for a loser like Perriello. Simple when you think about it. Just West of UVA right off 250/29 is the Farmington Country Club and Birdwood Golf Course.

Oldnuke on October 29, 2010 at 3:48 PM

VA-05 and VA-02 are interesting. Both Perriello and Glenn Nye are freshman Democrats. While Nye saw what was coming and voted against a lot of the Dem agenda, Perriello did just the opposite, embracing Obama and Pelosi.

And now it looks as if it doesn’t matter either way; they’re both poised to lose.

Vote for Robert Hurt in the 5th and Scott Rigell in the 2nd!

Abby Adams on October 29, 2010 at 3:48 PM

This might be the time to play that “We’ll bankrupt any new coal plants” clip from back in 2008.

LarryD on October 29, 2010 at 3:48 PM

Perriello will lose.

I think it is going to be bigger than anyone imagines.

I think you are right.

Missy on October 29, 2010 at 3:49 PM

tie tom’s hands….

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0GmQwXMfW4

ted c on October 29, 2010 at 3:50 PM

Anyone know how Fimian is doing against Connelly? Not my district – but close by … I’m really hoping Fimian pulls it out. Connelly is a dangerous moron.

Firefly_76 on October 29, 2010 at 3:57 PM

Putting a Hurt n on Perriello is going to be nice.

hawkman on October 29, 2010 at 3:58 PM

Those who might be excited about an Obama visit are most likely already supporting his cabana boy.

Those undecided are about to have their lives disrupted if their business involves going through or into Charlottesville for any reason the day of his visit. If anything, it should push them in the other direction.

College towns do tend to be liberal. I blame tenure. On the bright side, the U.Va. Law School has just repealed its speech code. Meanwhile, Syracuse Law School is trying to shut down bloggers who criticize them: http://tinyurl.com/2bzzeu8

Adjoran on October 29, 2010 at 4:00 PM

LarryD on October 29, 2010 at 3:48 PM

That part of Virginia doesn’t care about coal mining.

Charlottesville is more concerned about tenure, B&Bs and where to get a nice vanilla latte.

NoDonkey on October 29, 2010 at 4:02 PM

The ads in this area have become so pervasive that I have to change the channel when the the commercials start to prevent the TV going through the window… Between television and radio, I think I have heard the name Tom Perriello about 50,000 times in the past month. The hilarious thing is, he won the 5th district by only 727 votes in 2008, and he somehow thinks he is going to pull it out again after his suicidal votes. But let them spend their money here…

missykat16 on October 29, 2010 at 4:03 PM

So, will Obama still make his appearance? There are certainly a lot of planes being searched for suspicious packages. Would it look wrong for Obama to do a stump speech while bomb squads are escorting jets from the Middle East around at U.S. airports?

hawksruleva on October 29, 2010 at 4:04 PM

So, I’m just curious about the vanguard of the Delusional Northeastern Elitist Left and their desperate whining about how the Tea Party voters are crazy, insane, racist, violent, out of touch, etc.

These same liberal twits: Obama, Kerry, Robinson, and the vile fever swampers and TV types are all looking to the same source for rescue on Tuesday: high school and college student and black people who get their marching orders from some sleazy preacher/politician.

These are the least informed and least reliable voters in the country, from start to finish. They know nothing about the issues, including what their own preferred candidates’ positions are. And we’re supposed to be nuts?

Jaibones on October 29, 2010 at 4:06 PM

Lightbulb just came on over my head. Finally figured out why The Won is shilling for a loser like Perriello. Simple when you think about it. Just West of UVA right off 250/29 is the Farmington Country Club and Birdwood Golf Course.

Oldnuke on October 29, 2010 at 3:48 PM

Two things. Perriello was hanging out with the Dave Mathews band earlier this week, so maybe Obama is trying to get on Dave’s guest list.

Was it an incandescent light bulb? We’re approaching a day when kid’s won’t recognize that traditional light bulb shape. Thank you, Democrats.

hawksruleva on October 29, 2010 at 4:07 PM

So, will Obama still make his appearance? There are certainly a lot of planes being searched for suspicious packages. Would it look wrong for Obama to do a stump speech while bomb squads are escorting jets from the Middle East around at U.S. airports?

hawksruleva on October 29, 2010 at 4:04 PM

Are you kidding?..The Obie crew will probaly do a 500 ft flyover of Manhattan on his way to Conn..:)

Dire Straits on October 29, 2010 at 4:07 PM

Anyone know how Fimian is doing against Connelly? Not my district – but close by … I’m really hoping Fimian pulls it out. Connelly is a dangerous moron.

Firefly_76 on October 29, 2010 at 3:57 PM

Fimian’s close. It’s a tough district (Obama rolled there), but Connolly is a dope, and should be beaten. Fimian’s made up ground recently.

It hasn’t been polled very well, but I think most people register this as a coin-flip. Nate Silver’s model has a 40% chance of a Fimian win. If I had to put money, I’d say that Fimian wins in a squeaker.

It’ll definitely be close, and an early race to watch.

Abby Adams on October 29, 2010 at 4:10 PM

Is there anything else worse than “If you don’t tie our hands, we will keep stealing”?

What kind of person would vote for a candidate like this?

disa on October 29, 2010 at 4:13 PM

I’m in Lynchburg which straddles VA05, and I tell you, I’m going to be so glad to stop hearing those blasted Periello ads every 2 min. on the radio. The amount of money they’ve poured into trying to save his butt could feed a small country. And the blatant lies that his advertising spreads are unbelievable. They’re calling him pro-life…yeah, right.

acleaver on October 29, 2010 at 4:16 PM

Abby Adams on October 29, 2010 at 4:10 PM

Not my district but seriously who could vote for Connolly after one look at him.

Oldnuke on October 29, 2010 at 4:17 PM

I can also confirm that the ads for Perriello are practically non-stop…it’s ridiculous. But, in ’08-a very strong Dem year-Perriello only beat the Republican incumbent by 700 or so votes. Liberal C’ville aside, the 5th is pretty conservative, and I have a hard time imagining how Perriello wins this time, Obama or not. Hurt’s a very good candidate who has run a very strong campaign.

changer1701 on October 29, 2010 at 4:23 PM

I sure find it strange so many posters on here are from this area. It’s not like there’s an open registration and there’s thousands upon thousands of posters.

Seems like an inordinate percentage. Must be something in the water.

ButterflyDragon on October 29, 2010 at 4:25 PM

I’m planning on being up at Blue Mountain next Wed. Need some kegs for the bar. Anyone want to have lunch and celebrate the win?

BierManVA on October 29, 2010 at 4:29 PM

ButterflyDragon on October 29, 2010 at 4:25 PM

Nah. Just the best and brightest are located here in VA! :-)

tims472 on October 29, 2010 at 4:29 PM

America’s Families First Action Fund

They’re a noxious group. They’ve been spending a lot here in AZ-08 too, trying to save 2-term Congresswoman Gabby Gifford’s seat. I bet I’ve had more than 50 robo-calls from them in the last few weeks, and I’ve filled up my recycle bin with their mailers.

I don’t think they’re going to be able to save Giffords (despite all their lies about her Republican opponent). Giffords voted for TARP, the stimulus, all the bailouts, Obamacare, and every other Dim spending spree.

If this group really cared about “America’s families,” they’d be as angry about Gifford’s abysmal voting record as the rest of us here are.

AZCoyote on October 29, 2010 at 4:33 PM

acleaver on October 29, 2010 at 4:16 PM

I’m in Bob Goodlatte’s district but I still have to put up with the annoying ads from the neighboring districts so I second your thoughts. C’mon Tuesday!

tims472 on October 29, 2010 at 4:34 PM

Abby Adams on October 29, 2010 at 4:10 PM

Thanks for the info! Here’s to hoping that a very RED Virginia (among other east coast races) will help dispirit lefty voters on the west coast.

Firefly_76 on October 29, 2010 at 4:45 PM

stldave: you damn right I approve this message!

Robert Hurt is a great candidate. He has run a very conservative race. He, himself, is not a very wild-gesturing, crazy-talking guy so to some who aren’t paying attention, he might seem boring. He is trying very hard to avoid the “macaca” moment. Or, in Tommy Perriello’s case “if you don’t tie our hands, we will keep stealing”.

Robert Hurt also knew this race would take on nat’l implications. He knew the Dems/Soros/SEIU/Sierra Club/killbabiesforsport/ groups would pump money to protect their new favorite Congressman.

the reason that this race is close at all is because Perriello has pumped millions into ads. and hey, the ads have moved the #s some.

and phooey on the “early voters”. what? all 5 of them? the enthusiasm is big-time on Robert Hurt’s side.

i am so excited about Tuesday. roberthurtforcongress.com </a>

kelley in virginia on October 29, 2010 at 4:52 PM

little known fact about Robert Hurt’s brother Charlie who writes for the New York Post. the legend is that Charlie was the 1st reporter to be “asked” to leave Bambi’s campaign plane for asking tough questions.

i have no idea if this is true, but it sounds good.

kelley in virginia on October 29, 2010 at 4:54 PM

And my Dem friends are all ready to vote for the GOP challenger Partick Murphy. Maybe it won’t happen, but the feeling in the air right now is that it just might.

Kasper Hauser on October 29, 2010 at 3:14 PM

That’s Patrick Murray running against Jim Moran. Murray for Congress. Everyone should send him a few bucks!!!

Patrick Murphy is my district’s version of Tom Periello…and he is going to lose too! These two were the darlings of the Kos Kidz in 2006 and 2008. Will be soooo sweet to see them both lose!!!

rockmom on October 29, 2010 at 5:34 PM

Perriello only won by 2/10th of 1 percent last time against Virgil Goode. That was before anyone knew how liberal he is. If Obama thought there was any chance to get him re-elected, they would have come to Roanoke rather than Charlottesville. This is completely a move to try to sure up the base of college students/professors for 2012.

Perriello worked for Soros’s organizations before he was a Congressman. That’s all anyone needs to know to confidently cast a ballot for Hurt.

Greyledge Gal on October 29, 2010 at 5:35 PM

I’m in Bob Goodlatte’s district but I still have to put up with the annoying ads from the neighboring districts so I second your thoughts. C’mon Tuesday!

tims472 on October 29, 2010 at 4:34 PM

I’m in Goodlatte’s district, too, tims. I never realized there were so many of us rural VA bitter clingers on this list. :)

Greyledge Gal on October 29, 2010 at 5:39 PM

I’m in Goodlatte’s district, too, tims. I never realized there were so many of us rural VA bitter clingers on this list. :)

Greyledge Gal on October 29, 2010 at 5:39 PM

Not only do we cling here in Charlotte County. We are also the only county in VA with no traffic light. How’s that for rural?

BierManVA on October 29, 2010 at 5:45 PM

ButterflyDragon on October 29, 2010 at 2:50 PM

BierManVA on October 29, 2010 at 5:45 PM

I’m up the mountain from you all in Floyd Co. (VA-9). We get all the Perrierro ads from Roanoke TV. I got a kick out of one last weeks that never mentions Tom being a Dem, touts that he’s an independent and finishes with “We Can’t Take 10 More Years of Hurt.”

So the ad is supposed to project Tommy as the challenger fighting against that incumbent, Hurt. What a load of crap!

We’re doing all we can up here to get Rick Boucher pried out of his 28 year seat warming. Morgan Griffith is ahead, but within the MOE, which is closer than anyone’s gotten in the last 10 years.

We DO have early voting here for absentees. Maybe that’s what they were referring to.

TugboatPhil on October 29, 2010 at 6:15 PM

We are also the only county in VA with no traffic light.

BierManVA on October 29, 2010 at 5:45 PM

Didn’t catch that first time around. We have you beat by one.

However, Floyd is the only county in Va. from which water only flows out.

TugboatPhil on October 29, 2010 at 6:18 PM

I’m in Goodlatte’s district, too, tims. I never realized there were so many of us rural VA bitter clingers on this list. :)

Greyledge Gal on October 29, 2010 at 5:39 PM

Me too!

scalleywag on October 29, 2010 at 6:19 PM

I’m in Lynchburg, about a half-mile from the 5th district, but still just barely in Goodlatte’s. This election, I’m wishing I was able to vote against Perriello!

missykat16 on October 29, 2010 at 6:43 PM

Waving to all from Botetourt Co. We have stoplights. *sigh* I so love living in a true red county though. I think we went 70% for McCain.

Greyledge Gal on October 29, 2010 at 7:06 PM

BierManVA ~ Love Blue Mountain, but I’m in SC . . . can’t wait to get back up there though!

Adjoran on October 29, 2010 at 7:28 PM

missykat16 on October 29, 2010 at 6:43 PM

Harrisonburg here!

scalleywag on October 29, 2010 at 7:44 PM

bierman: i’m in Lunenburg. the urban part of Charlotte County. har.

Fox News had this snapshot from TheWon’s/Perriello’s rally “terror threat. President keeps to schedule”. screaming out of state UVA students in the background.

they all looked bad. har.

kelley in virginia on October 29, 2010 at 7:56 PM

Abby Adams on October 29, 2010 at 4:10 PM

That is my district. I expect Connolly to take Fairfax County however Fimian will probably do better in Prince William County. In the end VA-11 will come down to voter turnout.

If enough people in PWC heard this report then I hope Fimian can pull it off.

F15Mech on October 29, 2010 at 8:15 PM

little known fact about Robert Hurt’s brother Charlie who writes for the New York Post. the legend is that Charlie was the 1st reporter to be “asked” to leave Bambi’s campaign plane for asking tough questions.

i have no idea if this is true, but it sounds good.

It’s true. Charles was one of the 3 asked to leave Obama’s plane in Dallas.

jonkk on October 30, 2010 at 1:33 PM

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