New poll has Angle up 4 over Reid

posted at 11:10 am on October 29, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

The CNN/Time Magazine poll turned out to be too strange for any credibility, but Mason-Dixon has been polling this race for months, and they have begun to see some daylight for Sharron Angle as well.  Harry Reid maintains only a slight lead in Clark County, 49/45, which coincidentally is the same percentage by which Angle leads statewide.  It’s an improvement of two points for Angle since the same pollster surveyed the field two weeks ago:

If the figures from the latest Mason-Dixon survey hold true through Tuesday, Sharron Angle is going to surf this year’s anti-incumbent wave to a win in Nevada’s senate race. Angle leads Sen. Harry Reid by four percentage points (49-45), according to the new poll for the Las Vegas Review-Journal and 8NewsNow.

Two weeks ago the same pollster had Angle beating Reid, 47 percent to 45 percent. This latest poll was taken Monday through Wednesday of this week and surveyed 625 likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The survey shows Reid earning 84 percent of Democrats, and Angle holding 85 percent of Republicans. But the key is the independent vote, which the poll shows Angle pulling 55-38 percent. If that is true — or even half true, i.e. if Angle is up by 8 or 9 with independents — this race could indeed be hers, provided she holds her own in other areas.

The poll shows Reid beating Angle in Clark County, 49-45 percent, which would be quite a feat if she can achieve it. Democrats hold a voter registration advantage of 13 percent in Clark. However, the survey says Angle is winning Washoe County by the same four point margin, 49 to 45 percent. It also shows Angle crushing Reid in rural counties, 64-31 percent.

Angle needs to win Washoe and stay competitive in Clark County in order to beat Reid.  The rural counties had been hers all along.  Reid will spend the rest of his money this weekend in an attempt to push himself across the finish line in a very tight race.

Nevada, of course, is one of the few jurisdictions that allow a “none of the above” option.  So far, that’s a non-factor.  Only 2% polled by Mason-Dixon plan to use that option, and at least at this point, they may be as likely to have been potential Reid voters as Angle backers.  One issue that could be a factor still is “Tea Party” candidate Scott Ashjian, who has been roundly condemned by Tea Party activists in Nevada.  Mason-Dixon didn’t include Ashjian’s name in their survey, a potentially serious problem in the polling, although Ashjian has never garnered more than 5% in any other poll.

Can Angle close the deal, or will Reid find a way to win?  He has yet to top the mid-40s in any poll, and Angle has taken every punch he’s thrown.  She is throwing this roundhouse as her closing argument on TV this weekend:

If Angle can keep Reid tied to Obama and Pelosi this weekend, I’m predicting a knockout.


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I have decided I was wrong about her ad that upset Behar. I just saw the other 4 races, and they are all hinging on this issue, with the GOP surging ahead.

Gee, apparently her ad manager knows NV better than I do. *haha

I think that ad broke it open for her. Negative as it was, it apparently hit a note.

And Joy helped. :)

AnninCA on October 29, 2010 at 11:13 AM

No more taxpayer funded embalming treatments for you, Reid.

Bishop on October 29, 2010 at 11:14 AM

“Hey Chuck! Adjust those Diebold machines by 2 more percent. Harry’s behind by more than we thought!”

portlandon on October 29, 2010 at 11:14 AM

What a Joy to see.

Ted Torgerson on October 29, 2010 at 11:14 AM

A tea party candidate who CAN NOT win!

OMFG! We just gave the race to Harry Reid!

/ Elitist RINO’s.

HondaV65 on October 29, 2010 at 11:15 AM

BUH-bye Daschole! Ooops, I mean Reid!

Tony737 on October 29, 2010 at 11:15 AM

What a Joy to see.

Ted Torgerson on October 29, 2010 at 11:14 AM

yup……good one.

AnninCA on October 29, 2010 at 11:15 AM

Here’s hoping. Even if Republicans don’t take the Senate, having Chucky Schumer’s sociopathic face pathologically lying to the electorate on TV every night for the next two years will likely do more damage to the enemy than all the scorched-earth legislation they can manage to pass.

Blacklake on October 29, 2010 at 11:16 AM

Sharon should send Harry some flowers….and a note thanking him for being him.

Electrongod on October 29, 2010 at 11:18 AM

I have to imagine Angle voters know by now that the tea party candidate on the ballot is a fraud, so hopefully he won’t be much os a factor.

changer1701 on October 29, 2010 at 11:18 AM

Screw flowers.

Send Joy a nice fruit basket.

With the inscription:

“Thanks for your support, b*tch. – Sincerely, Sen. Angle”

Good Lt on October 29, 2010 at 11:19 AM

Big mo’!

I can hardly wait for election night. I plan to watch MSNBC’s coverage – the extent of pain and human suffering on display should be quite entertaining.

Inkblots on October 29, 2010 at 11:19 AM

The Dem strategy to tar and feather the Teaparty candidates is stressful to watch, particularly since the GOP establishment has sent out emmisaries to back that, too. However, I remain convinced that populism is never beaten by this method.

Populism is scary to insiders for good reason. It’s beyond their control. The more you demean, the stronger it gets.

Some of the criticisms are on point, based in history. The very first populist president was Andrew Jackson, who booted out the insider bankers and waged war on the Indians. We still live with that one.

But, even he couldn’t quite control the crowd. Back in those days, you had an open house in the WH if you won. The “riff-raff” totally destroyed the WH. It’s a great story of populism.

However, the real deal is very clear. Populism is never beaten by fear-mongering. If it’s real? People don’t care what’s being said.

AnninCA on October 29, 2010 at 11:19 AM

Angle is basically from Reno as well, so I can see Washoe going her way. She’s more of a “known quantity” in Reno, Elko etc. than most folks outside NV realized early in the race.

Can’t wait to (hopefully?) say “Bye” to Reid!

cs89 on October 29, 2010 at 11:20 AM

Can Angle close the deal, or will Reid find a way to win?

If Angle can keep Reid tied to Obama and Pelosi this weekend, I’m predicting a knockout.

I think that the Clinton Albatross Factor and DOJ scandal will somehow play into the consciousness of the voters. Say 2% (either a reserve vote for Angle or stay at home).

So, in effect, I predict Angle will win by 6% margin. And that is very “conservative” of me.

TheAlamos on October 29, 2010 at 11:21 AM

Great ad.

It could be used in all races by substituting Reid for {fill in the blank}.

tru2tx on October 29, 2010 at 11:22 AM

But whatever!

Ousting Harry Dingy Reid means 10000% margin for Angel!

MOMMA GRIZZLY!

TheAlamos on October 29, 2010 at 11:23 AM

I think Reid is going to win 100% of the vote based on the reports that a vote for Angle is counted as a vote for Reid on the SEIU-controlled voting machines.

Do you think the Dems are smart enough to keep the cheating at believable levels?

zmdavid on October 29, 2010 at 11:24 AM

If Harry Reid only leads by four points in Clark County, it’s over.

JohnGalt23 on October 29, 2010 at 11:24 AM

think that the Clinton Albatross Factor and DOJ scandal will somehow play into the consciousness of the voters. Say 2% (either a reserve vote for Angle or stay at home).

So, in effect, I predict Angle will win by 6% margin. And that is very “conservative” of me.

TheAlamos on October 29, 2010 at 11:21 AM

I think it’s been Obama who has campaigned for Reid in NV, not Clinton.

AnninCA on October 29, 2010 at 11:25 AM

I can hardly wait for election night. I plan to watch MSNBC’s coverage – the extent of pain and human suffering on display should be quite entertaining.

Inkblots on October 29, 2010 at 11:19 AM

‘splodin’ heads and all…

ladyingray on October 29, 2010 at 11:26 AM

Gonna be watching Fox coverage on election night whilst recording MSNBC entirely on my DVR for a nice, slow replay the next day.

carbon_footprint on October 29, 2010 at 11:26 AM

Ode to Joy

thebrokenrattle on October 29, 2010 at 11:27 AM

Paging SEIU, paging SEIU

mwbri on October 29, 2010 at 11:27 AM

Not enough to counter the dead voters and the voting machine manipulation. Watch Harry pull this one out, using African-level election fraud to do it.

michaelo on October 29, 2010 at 11:27 AM

Screw flowers.

Send Joy a nice fruit basket.

With the inscription:

“Thanks for your support, b*tch. – Sincerely, Sen. Angle”

Good Lt on October 29, 2010 at 11:19 AM

A nice Ham-Gram would be appropriate.

AubieJon on October 29, 2010 at 11:28 AM

It becomes more difficult to explain victory resulting from ballot fraud of any kind as that pre-election day polling gap widens. Even in Vegas.

a capella on October 29, 2010 at 11:29 AM

Will this be the first time two family members simultaneously lose a state-wide race? The Reid “kid” is getting his clock cleaned in the Governor’s race. Heh.

perroviejo on October 29, 2010 at 11:30 AM

Reid is stuck on 45%; he’s toast…
Their is a God!

Keemo on October 29, 2010 at 11:30 AM

Jumpin’ for JOY Bit*h.

portlandon on October 29, 2010 at 11:30 AM

Maybe I’m naive, but if an incumbant has never led in any poll, I’d say she’s home.

I think we would have seen a surge by now.

The race that has me completely puzzled is CT, because I just can’t figure out why Linda M. is not doing better. Heck, based on the latest polls? O’Donnell is doing better than Linda!

And AK is a disaster. Same thing happened to Sarah there. these AK bloggers are truly a problem for the GOP. Lisa may think they are helping her now, but that group is a real problem.

Nobody seems to be able to hold Mudflats or AK Dispatch accountable in the least.

I would suggest that they are honestly anarchist-like bloggers which are disrupting in a real sense.

Just my 2 cents.

AnninCA on October 29, 2010 at 11:31 AM

Harry could change his name to Harry Houdini and he still isn’t going to come out on top.

fourdeucer on October 29, 2010 at 11:31 AM

If Angle wins, she should go on the View (barf) and give Joy Behart a plaque. Joy is like the fat 300 lbs fullback that literally picked up the smaller half back (angle) and pushed her over the top.

I know the imagery is sort’ve gross….

jbh45 on October 29, 2010 at 11:32 AM

Do you think the Dems are smart enough to keep the cheating at believable levels?
zmdavid on October 29, 2010 at 11:24 AM

No.

joejm65 on October 29, 2010 at 11:33 AM

Harry’s tears will taste like Slurpee!

massrighty on October 29, 2010 at 11:33 AM

Never underestimate the epitome of pure evil that Reid is. Unabated corruption that is a standard operating procedure of demonrats is hard to incorporate into a poll. Rampant corruption is to be expected as it has been in prior elections.

volsense on October 29, 2010 at 11:33 AM

See you in hell, Joy.

patriette on October 29, 2010 at 11:35 AM

is 4pts enough to win over the cheatying going on?

unseen on October 29, 2010 at 11:35 AM

In the immortal words of Harry himself:

This war is lost.

NebCon on October 29, 2010 at 11:36 AM

And AK is a disaster. Same thing happened to Sarah there. these AK bloggers are truly a problem for the GOP. Lisa may think they are helping her now, but that group is a real problem.

Nobody seems to be able to hold Mudflats or AK Dispatch accountable in the least.

I would suggest that they are honestly anarchist-like bloggers which are disrupting in a real sense.

Just my 2 cents.

AnninCA on October 29, 2010 at 11:31 AM

I dont think the bloggers are that big of a problem , it’s the liberal media monopoly in Alaska that’s the problem.

the_nile on October 29, 2010 at 11:36 AM

Just wait until the investigations into Reid’s corruption start; can’t wait to see Joy’s ugly face match her ugly behavior.

Keemo on October 29, 2010 at 11:36 AM

is 4pts enough to win over the cheatying going on?

unseen on October 29, 2010 at 11:35 AM

The real number is closer to 8 points… Should be enough to secure victory.

Keemo on October 29, 2010 at 11:37 AM

The race that has me completely puzzled is CT, because I just can’t figure out why Linda M. is not doing better. Heck, based on the latest polls? O’Donnell is doing better than Linda!

There are folks in CT who honestly believe that Rosa DeLauro is a centrist and Joe Lieberman is a Republican. The Dim ‘machine’ exists in my home state of CT as much as it exists anywhere else. That, coupled with a very weak Republican apparatus, explains how a horrible candidate like Blumenthal can win this race.

joejm65 on October 29, 2010 at 11:39 AM

I dont think the bloggers are that big of a problem , it’s the liberal media monopoly in Alaska that’s the problem.

the_nile on October 29, 2010 at 11:36 AM

Do you? The AK Dispatch is a blog. Mudflats is a blog. The last poll spouted around, even on this blog, was from Mudflats.

The last big Miller episode was the AK Dispatch “journalist.”

Both are activist blogs, not actual media outlets.

AnninCA on October 29, 2010 at 11:40 AM

There are folks in CT who honestly believe that Rosa DeLauro is a centrist and Joe Lieberman is a Republican. The Dim ‘machine’ exists in my home state of CT as much as it exists anywhere else. That, coupled with a very weak Republican apparatus, explains how a horrible candidate like Blumenthal can win this race.

joejm65 on October 29, 2010 at 11:39 AM

OK, I get that. Same in CA. That’s a very, very tough state to beat Dems in. There’s a cultural pride in liberalism.

It worked for so long, I guess.

AnninCA on October 29, 2010 at 11:41 AM

Gonna be watching Fox coverage on election night whilst recording MSNBC entirely on my DVR for a nice, slow replay the next day.
carbon_footprint on October 29, 2010 at 11:26 AM

Just watch the money shots from “Scanners” on Youtube a few dozen times, the same effect but quicker and easier.

Bishop on October 29, 2010 at 11:41 AM

Will this be the first time two family members simultaneously lose a state-wide race? The Reid “kid” is getting his clock cleaned in the Governor’s race. Heh.

perroviejo on October 29, 2010 at 11:30 AM

Don’t know about prior elections but I believe the Carnahans in Missouri are about to suffer the same well-deserved fate.

jwolf on October 29, 2010 at 11:42 AM

CA reminds me of the South in the 1950′s. Such pride in antiquated ideas.

I think they are going through that same process, personally.

AnninCA on October 29, 2010 at 11:43 AM

See you in hell, Joy.

patriette on October 29, 2010 at 11:35 AM

I won’t be in hell to see her. And I hope you won’t be there, either. But I’d like to see Angle send Joy an autographed copy of the certified election results, along with another basket of flowers.

jwolf on October 29, 2010 at 11:44 AM

I noticed NOW actually came out and defended O’Donnell. I guess the latest polls showing that women were leaving Dems got their attention at last.

Goodness, but it SHOULD be a big discussion after this is over. Let’s take a look at the attack ads from teapartiers towards Women Dems versus the reverse.

You’ll never convince me that shouldn’t really spell it out for a lot of women in this country. We’re not all even ever going to face abortion as a question.

But we sure do face the type of thing those women are dealing with.

It’s a case of clarity, at last.

AnninCA on October 29, 2010 at 11:46 AM

What a Joy to see.

Ted Torgerson on October 29, 2010 at 11:14 AM

It’s a Joy to Reid the Tea leaves!

cartooner on October 29, 2010 at 11:46 AM

Never underestimate the epitome of pure evil that Reid is. Unabated corruption that is a standard operating procedure of demonrats is hard to incorporate into a poll. Rampant corruption is to be expected as it has been in prior elections.

volsense on October 29, 2010 at 11:33 AM

I think all of them are susceptible to corruption, including the GOP. That’s a non-partisan problem.

And that’s why I like teaparty candidates. Disavowing the usual methods that lead to complete corruption is a really selling point with me.

I thought that’s why McCain picked Palin, even. I’ve always thought he really understood the corruption influences in DC.

I still do. I’m not a huge fan of his lack of backbone in how he handled it.

But I did see that there was a lot more sensibility in his choice than he’ll get credit for by most DC insider types, including Rove Inc.

AnninCA on October 29, 2010 at 11:50 AM

Paging SEIU, paging SEIU

mwbri on October 29, 2010 at 11:27 AM

Your call has been answered. Election Integrity Violation Report:
“…several unions are engaging in activities that appear to be intended to intimidate and coerce their members into casting their votes in the Election under the close scrutiny and supervision of union personel.”

scrubjay on October 29, 2010 at 11:52 AM

“I expect him to vaporize Lowden or Tarkanian or whoever is the opponent,” said a Reid adviser, speaking on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss campaign strategy.

Conservative outsider and tea-party pick Sharron Angle handily defeated more established rivals to win the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Nevada—which would give incumbent Democratic Sen. Harry Reid the opponent he had hoped to face.

HondaV65 on October 29, 2010 at 11:53 AM

She locked up the “Beyhar is an Idiot” vote. . . .

dts-01 on October 29, 2010 at 11:54 AM

Great news, couldn’t happen to a more deserving skank.
I’d also like to gleefully point out that his son is losing in Colorado, yeah!

Can one still use the word ‘glee’ without being taken the wrong way yet?

cjk on October 29, 2010 at 11:57 AM

Now Reid is trying to distant himself from Obama. That is like a cat distancing itself from its litter box. The distance is only temporary.

volsense on October 29, 2010 at 11:58 AM

All you Nevada bitches get out there and vote…

Kuffar on October 29, 2010 at 11:59 AM

Thank You Joyless Bewhore!

slickwillie2001 on October 29, 2010 at 12:19 PM

I think Angle has this locked up.

So what can help Miller in AK?

That’s a truly pathetic situation. It’s way unfair.

AnninCA on October 29, 2010 at 12:22 PM

As the race gets near the end…the polls “suddenly unexpectedly” become accurate.

right2bright on October 29, 2010 at 12:48 PM

As I said, over two weeks ago now…

There are races that will keep us up late on November 2.

This one isn’t one of them.

Angle by 5+.

Chris of Rights on October 29, 2010 at 12:48 PM

The dumbocrats tried EVERYTHING to help reid win. WE the people are speaking up. God bless the USA!

VegasRick on October 29, 2010 at 1:02 PM

If it’s a CNN/Time poll I would suspect it’s understating Angle’s support if anything. My question is how it could even be this close at all. The idea of Nevadans re-electing Reid is unthinkable to me, but maybe a lot of Nevadans don’t think or Reid would’ve been gone a long time ago.

eyedoc on October 29, 2010 at 1:23 PM

I don’t think the question is, “Can Angle hold a 4 point lead?” The question is more likely, “Can Reid and the Dems steal 4.01 points?”

tgharris on October 29, 2010 at 1:45 PM

It will be very good to see Reid defeated, but unless Republicans take the Senate it’s kind of a hollow victory. “Little Porky Amendments” Schumer as Senate Leader isn’t going to be a walk in the pork…er, park.

Dee2008 on October 29, 2010 at 3:11 PM

Nevada, of course, is one of the few jurisdictions that allow a “none of the above” option

I don’t get this. If you don’t like any of the candidates, just leave the ballot blank. Or better yet don’t show up to vote. Choosing none of the above just seems childish.

angryed on October 29, 2010 at 3:16 PM

The idea of Nevadans re-electing Reid is unthinkable to me, but maybe a lot of Nevadans don’t think or Reid would’ve been gone a long time ago.

eyedoc on October 29, 2010 at 1:23 PM

Las Vegas is very heavy union. Pretty much anyone who works in a casino is a union member. They, like union drones everywhere else, vote for the “D” no matter who it is.

angryed on October 29, 2010 at 3:18 PM

Keep in mind we may get Chucker Schumer as Democrat minority/majority leader.

You thought Reid was bad…

Yes, Reid has to be defeated, but his replacement is much, much worse.

scotash on October 29, 2010 at 5:01 PM

I can hardly wait for election night. I plan to watch FOX NEWS but will switch to CNN and MSNBC’s coverage just for comedy relief. Oh the whining that will start early and probably won’t end for the next couple years. Hopefully this west side of the country will be good news by defeating Harry Reid, Barbara Boxer, and Patti Murray in the Senate. The only time we ever saw Harry Reid in this state was around election time for photo ops. Obama has been here around 4 times and Bill Clinton has been here and now I believe Michelle Obama is coming tomorrow. Believe me, it won’t work. We are tired of Harry Reid and he is toast. Too bad his son Rory is going down too because of his father.

KCinLV on October 29, 2010 at 5:28 PM

KCinLV on October 29, 2010 at 5:28 PM

You don’t have to watch the liberal networks, I’m sure someone like HA or MM or NB will put together videos of ‘the best of the breakdowns’ on election night. Judy Woodruff moaning and wailing like a Kuwaiti widow, Andy Vanderbilt in a hissy fit, Tingles naked under his desk in the fetal position crying for his mommy, etc.

Many others like Olberdouche and Madeau that can’t bear it all will simply take a few days off.

slickwillie2001 on October 29, 2010 at 6:00 PM

slickwillie2001 on October 29, 2010 at 6:00 PM

I will be on Hot Air watching and hopefully getting encouraged with all the bloggers across the country on here keeping us updated. You are right, I am not going to go on those other stations but will stick with Fox News and wait for bloggers to let us know what is going on the looney tunes networks.

KCinLV on October 29, 2010 at 10:04 PM