Gulp: New poll shows Murkowski up by double digits

posted at 6:51 pm on October 29, 2010 by Allahpundit

Ed and I have been trying to game out how we’ll handle blogging the late late late night returns on Tuesday from Alaska. I’d been dreading having to post at 4 a.m., but now I’m looking forward to it for the simple reason that waiting on numbers that late will at least mean the race is close.

Eeyoreblogger pessimism status check: Spiking.

The poll, conducted by Dittman Research & Communications, shows Murkowski leading attorney Joe Miller (R), 37 percent to 27 percent, with the Democrat, Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams, in third place with 23 percent. Thirteen percent chose other candidates or were undecided.

Replicating the write-in process in a phone survey can be difficult, but the technique used by pollster Dave Dittman is unique to most public polls of the race. Respondents are first asked an open-ended question about their vote preference, and their choice of candidate is recorded. If the respondent is unable to make a choice, he or she is read the names of the candidates on the ballot, with the option of a write-in candidate. In order to choose Murkowski, the respondent must choose the write-in option and provide her name.

According to Dittman’s polls of the race over the past two months, Murkowski’s support has remained quite steady in the mid- to upper-30s. Miller began the general campaign, just days after upsetting Murkowski in the GOP primary, at 32%, but his support this month has fluctuated in the mid- to upper-20s as his negatives have risen.

In other words, it’s not that Murkowski’s trending upwards, it’s that people in Miller’s column are trending back towards undecided. There’s actually another poll out within the last 24 hours showing Murkowski up double digits, but that one was commissioned by a pro-Lisa group and is being touted on the anti-Miller Alaska Dispatch site (the one edited by the guy who got ‘cuffed at that Miller event), so who knows if it’s worth anything. Either way, though, the trends here are obviously poor. (But then, we already knew that.) Sarahcuda’s rally yesterday was the last chance to turn it around. Is there enough magic left?

Via TLC, here’s your metaphor of the day — Palin trying to climb a mountain in Alaska. Click the image to watch.


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Not a chance. When it comes down to it, she won’t get more than 15% of the vote. Write-in candidates never win.

KSgop on October 29, 2010 at 9:22 PM

Hate this loathsome backstabbing narcissistic power-hungry beeyotch. Perhaps more than the worst of the Democrats.

Midas on October 29, 2010 at 9:28 PM

That’s a good point, as it’s one thing to say yeah, I like Lisa on the phone, but to bother going to vote and write her in is another matter. Our theory will get tested soon enough.

leftnomore on October 29, 2010 at 9:29 PM

Up to 160 write-ins: Write-ins Flood Alaska Senate Race List

slickwillie2001 on October 29, 2010 at 10:21 PM

Yeah,this is a legit poll alright.
http://www.adn.com/2008/11/06/580341/pollsters-miss-mark-in-alaska.html

jimboster on October 29, 2010 at 10:25 PM

Lisa had one of her many lawyers call the owner of KFQD, a radio station here in Alaska and threatened to sue the station if they didn’t silence Conservative talk show host Dan Fagan. She said he was “electioneering’. A Conservative speaks his mind and she has him silenced.
Way to go Lisa. I think she likes what she sees when she looks at Obama. I think she likes what she see when she looks at Chavez as well. He likes to shut people up as well and has been quite successful at it.
So far, so has Lisa.
For the first time and because of a court ruling made by a judge that I believe? was appointed by Lisa’s Poppa, just as Lisa was originally made Senator by her Poppa, a list of write in candidates will be posted at polling places. This is being done to benefit no one but Lisa. There is no precedent.
Dan invited one and all to download the form for write in candidacy, fill it out and fax it it and get their names added to the list. Many did so. This caused problems. Lisa didn’t like that. She sent lawyers to intimidate the station owner in to silencing the one that made her angry.
Such power…and a willingness to use it.
I’ve been here since 56 and recall it becoming a state when I was quite young. I wonder now if that was such a good thing after all.
When a Senator from a state like Alaska wants to implement Cap and Trade knowing full well the devastating effect it will have on our economy and our way of life here…are we suicidal? Are that many of us bent on our own destruction that we elect those that will weaken us, lower our standard of living to achieve “Social Justice”…or Communism as I like to call it…?
Down the road we go, step by step…not all at once. If we notice the water getting hot we might react. It has to happen slowly. Obama recently made that clear.
sigh…

Army Brat on October 29, 2010 at 10:42 PM

Lisa M. is not likely to garner more than 20% of the vote (and that is an overly generous estimate).

These polls are just to drive public opinion and are commissioned by left-leaning organizations to try and suppress support for Miller and allow Scott M. to squeak through.

But it will certainly fail… I predict 42%: 38%: 20% in favour of Miller.

TheRightMan on October 29, 2010 at 10:42 PM

I never realized that Alaska is as corrupt as California.

Dhuka on October 29, 2010 at 10:56 PM

Total BS. I can’t wait for this victory and Mrozinski with her whiny mouth shut.

Jaibones on October 29, 2010 at 10:58 PM

I truly dislike Lisa the spoiled brat.

John the Libertarian on October 29, 2010 at 11:24 PM

Has a write in senatorial candidate ever won?

Mojave Mark on October 29, 2010 at 11:46 PM

She’s Charlie Crist in a skirt.

TugboatPhil on October 30, 2010 at 12:06 AM

Chances of a write-in winning are minimal. If she pulls it off, frankly, she’s earned it.

scotash on October 30, 2010 at 12:09 AM

Is true? Dan Fagan was forced to close his show by LizaM?

TheAlamos on October 30, 2010 at 1:00 AM

My Bad, Amy. I wasn’t able to read your post.

So, it’s true then.

TheAlamos on October 30, 2010 at 1:03 AM

Did Joe Miller squandered a big lead by his lackluster campaign?

bayview on October 30, 2010 at 1:20 AM

Did Joe Miller squandered a big lead by his lackluster campaign?

bayview on October 30, 2010 at 1:20 AM

Don’t be so assuming. In Alaska, there is no such thing as “campaigning”.

It’s always nail-to-nail because of the DEATH STAR MACHINE.

TheAlamos on October 30, 2010 at 1:39 AM

Did Joe Miller squandered a big lead by his lackluster campaign?

bayview on October 30, 2010 at 1:20 AM

Plus, their election law/jurisprudence and processes are still EVOLVING.

TheAlamos on October 30, 2010 at 1:41 AM

I feel it’s very low and dishonest to keep misspelling her name. Remember, Alaska voters, it’s spelled Mercowski.

Hollowpoint on October 30, 2010 at 2:20 AM

Alaska: Once full of proud, strong, fiercely independent people.

Now: Filled with serfs on their knees begging the crown for a few shillings of largess in the form of pork from the crown.

Hollowpoint on October 30, 2010 at 2:23 AM

I feel it’s very low and dishonest to keep misspelling her name. Remember, Alaska voters, it’s spelled Mercowski.

Hollowpoint on October 30, 2010 at 2:20 AM

Aha! Electioneering!

News-whiners will track you down, eh? They have already identified some of Lizzard’s enemies: eg. Reihl (DC Consultant) yada yada yada

Be afraid ‘coz you’re an alien. Lizzard has so many lawyers and they are “so intelligent”, unlike the “unlikable” and “unqualified” Palin and her AK outsider (read: alien) friends.

TheAlamos on October 30, 2010 at 2:46 AM

Lisa M. is not likely to garner more than 20% of the vote (and that is an overly generous estimate).

But it will certainly fail… I predict 42%: 38%: 20% in favour of Miller.

TheRightMan on October 29, 2010 at 10:42 PM

Aha! Electioneering! News-whiners, hear hear! another Palin-alien friend.

TheAlamos on October 30, 2010 at 2:48 AM

AP, there was some ground actions too, sort of rants by both factions. Miller’s group was shouting “Let Dan Speak”.

TheAlamos on October 30, 2010 at 3:35 AM

Don’t they believe in the 1st amendment in AK? I know they think highly of the 2nd. How is it that the state supreme court can overturn state law on having a list of write ins at the poll? I know they consider their state the last frontier but come on people, if you make the rules you should keep them.

Kissmygrits on October 30, 2010 at 9:22 AM

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