Change: O’Donnell within 10 in new Monmouth poll

posted at 4:27 pm on October 29, 2010 by Allahpundit

The good news: With four days to go, she’s only down 10. The bad news: With four days to go, she’s still down 10.

In the past two weeks, Republican Christine O’Donnell has narrowed Democrat Chris Coons’ lead in Delaware’s U.S. Senate race from 19 points to 10 points. The latest Monmouth University Poll finds Coons has the support of 51% of likely voters to 41% for O’Donnell. Two weeks ago, this race stood at 57% to 38%…

O’Donnell has also made gains among independent voters, now leading Coons 47% to 42% among this voting bloc. Two weeks ago, she trailed in the independent vote by 51% to 41%…

The poll found that just 35% of likely voters in Delaware feel that Christine O’Donnell is qualified to be a U.S. Senator, while 56% say she is unqualified. That contrasts with their opinion of Chris Coons, who 65% say is qualified for the U.S. Senate to 25% unqualified. These qualification results for O’Donnell and Coons are basically identical to the Monmouth University Poll results from two weeks ago.

How to square this poll with yesterday’s Fairleigh Dickinson survey showing Coons cruising to victory with a 21-point lead? I … honestly don’t know. Both polls use nice big samples of likely voters, so there’s no threshold reason to think either is sketchy. I’ll give you three possibilities for the discrepancy. One: The timing. The FDU poll was taken on Oct. 20 to 26 while the Monmouth poll was taken on Oct. 25 to 27. It could be that the race is tightening at the end and only Monmouth is picking it up. Two: They could be defining “likely voters” differently, the dangers of which I noted in yesterday’s post about that shady Murkowski/Miller poll in Alaska. Monmouth defines likelies as “voters who cast ballots in at least two of the last four general elections and … who say they are either ‘certain’ or ‘likely’ to vote in this November’s election,” which seems like a reasonable screen. FDU doesn’t say how they defined them, which makes me that much more skeptical of their result. Three: Their partisan samples are different. Monmouth’s sample splits 43D/37R/20I by registration and 36D/30R/34I by self-identification; the difference between those numbers tells you a lot about how disgusted people are with both parties, even in Delaware. FDU’s sample splits 40D/24R/37I or, if you force indies to declare which way they’re leaning, 53D/36R/12I. As a point of reference, in the Democratic wave year of 2008 (with Obama at the top of the ticket, natch), the people who voted in the Senate race identified as 48D/31R/21I. I won’t even pretend to guess what this year’s split will be — I doubt even Nate Silver and his supercomputer would feel confident estimating — but obviously Republican turnout will be proportionally greater. Which means Monmouth’s probably closer to the mark than FDU is, especially if they’re right about indies now breaking for O’Donnell.

All in all, yeah, I think it’s probably more likely a 10-point game right now than a 21-point blowout. Which only stands to reason: As our friend Mr. Frank up in Massachusetts could tell you, not even heavily Democratic jurisdictions are completely out of play for the GOP this year. And let’s face it, Harry Reid’s “pet” isn’t exactly setting the world on fire as a candidate. The big worry is that number in the blockquote about which candidate is more qualified for the Senate. There’s nothing O’Donnell can do at this point to turn that around, yet that’s something that’s bound to influence undecideds and leaners in the booth. She needs every last vote she can scrounge to pull the upset and that’s an awfully high hurdle. As for the possibility of a sympathy vote after yesterday’s Gawker piece, crazier things have happened — and since women voters have been O’Donnell’s big problem all along, it could be especially helpful with them — but from what I can tell, the big Delaware paper has stayed away from the story, so who knows how many voters in-state even know what’s going on. For what it’s worth, Nate Silver’s model has the odds of a Coons win at, er, 100 percent, but we’ll see what happens this weekend when the final election polls start dropping from Rasmussen and crew. Cross those fingers!


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I’m just hoping COD gets to within 5 points so we can blame Rove and Krauthammer..:)

Dire Straits on October 29, 2010 at 5:44 PM

Oh, you’ll do that anyway. If she loses by 20 points, that’s the “true con” gameplan. Blame anyone but Christine.

Here’s the most damning thing about this race:

The poll found that just 35% of likely voters in Delaware feel that Christine O’Donnell is qualified to be a U.S. Senator, while 56% say she is unqualified.

She started off as a joke candidate, and there just wasn’t enough there in her background, other than baggage, to change that perception. Which was the argument against her all along. Delaware voters never believed that she was “them”.

Vyce on October 29, 2010 at 7:26 PM

Creme puff.

darwin on October 29, 2010 at 6:27 PM

duuuuuuuurhhhhhhwin…poltically blind groupie short of actual arguments, full of “true conservative” babble and willing to run off cliffs behind mama grizzly

windansea on October 29, 2010 at 7:38 PM

She started off as a joke candidate…

Vyce on October 29, 2010 at 7:26 PM

…and our “big tent” moderates couldn’t get the bug out of their asses long enough to stop piling on.

ddrintn on October 29, 2010 at 7:38 PM

If she loses by 20 points, that’s the “true con” gameplan. Blame anyone but Christine.

Hey, blame Castle for running such a crappy campaign that he lost to an idiot like O’Donnell. Right?

You’ve been saying for weeks that she’ll lose by double digits. If that doesn’t happen will you admit you were wrong?

Missy on October 29, 2010 at 7:48 PM

…and our “big tent” moderates couldn’t get the bug out of their asses long enough to stop piling on.

ddrintn on October 29, 2010 at 7:38 PM

gee we’re sorry, I could probably support a resumeless social con born again thumper and pretend she is a tea party fiscal hawk but having a hard time accepting the lies about her past election results, income, education and the dabbling in extortion via frivolous gender lawsuit.

Is Palin balin or will she show up?

windansea on October 29, 2010 at 8:10 PM

This is how I view many of the people posting against O’Donnell. They say they are “conservative”, but support one of the most liberal, devout liberal, senators in the nation.
Below is an example of what bloggers do…they are paid to dissuade.
There is no legitimate conservative that would choose Coons, an all but avowed Marxist, over O’Donnell.
In the last few days, the push to the finish, why any conservative would attack O’Donnell at the cost of having Coons gain even one vote, proves to me that they are no conservative, but posting for another reason.

Below is the comment that has been left on thousands of sites that posted the video of her disrespecting the Pledge of Allegiance on the floor of the Peoples House.

“Congresswoman McCollum has led the Pledge of Allegiance on the House floor several times before. Check out http://mccollum.house.gov/pledge. It’s all there.”

right2bright on October 29, 2010 at 8:54 PM

gee we’re sorry

windansea on October 29, 2010 at 8:10 PM

And how.

ddrintn on October 29, 2010 at 9:22 PM

I’ve begun to look at the left’s (and in some cases, the right’s) use of the word “qualified” with some trepidation. It seems as if it’s become a term to be used to heap disdain upon anyone who isn’t a career politician.

I’ve pretty much decided that no matter if it’s a dem or a republican in a race, local, state or national, I’m marking the oval for the individual with the LEAST amount of government experience.

To me, a previous job in government doesn’t make you a more qualified candidate, it makes you a less desirable one.

Jason Coleman on October 29, 2010 at 9:38 PM

You’ve been saying for weeks that she’ll lose by double digits. If that doesn’t happen will you admit you were wrong?

Missy on October 29, 2010 at 7:48 PM

Of course not, because what I’ve primarily been saying is that it’s a definite she’s GOING to lose.

How much she’s going to lose by isn’t really of consequence. Except, of course, if she DOES lose by ten points, it will make it a bit harder for the ‘true cons’ to sell their “it’s all Karl Rove / RINOs / the Establishment’s fault!!!” narrative. Well, I mean, they’ll STILL try and sell it, but no one who actually has a foothold in reality will treat such an assertion with anything other than an eyeroll at that point.

Vyce on October 29, 2010 at 10:39 PM

Jason Coleman on October 29, 2010 at 9:38 PM

‘Qualified’ -to the country club Republicans and democratics seems to mean ‘member of the ruling elite’.

slickwillie2001 on October 29, 2010 at 11:00 PM

The funny thing is, I think this guy (from the Headlines thread on this) thought he was being absurd:

No, she was down 21 points yesterday!!!! She’s gained 10 points in one day!!!! Tomorrow, she’ll be tied!!!! By Tuesday, she’ll win by 30 points!!!!

tom on October 29, 2010 at 11:47 AM

But it looks like some people are trying to believe both polls, and that she jumped 11 points in support in a single day.

There Goes The Neighborhood on October 29, 2010 at 11:00 PM

You’ve been saying for weeks that she’ll lose by double digits. If that doesn’t happen will you admit you were wrong?

Missy on October 29, 2010 at 7:48 PM

Of course not, because what I’ve primarily been saying is that it’s a definite she’s GOING to lose.

How much she’s going to lose by isn’t really of consequence. Except, of course, if she DOES lose by ten points, it will make it a bit harder for the ‘true cons’ to sell their “it’s all Karl Rove / RINOs / the Establishment’s fault!!!” narrative. Well, I mean, they’ll STILL try and sell it, but no one who actually has a foothold in reality will treat such an assertion with anything other than an eyeroll at that point.

Vyce on October 29, 2010 at 10:39 PM

Well, we can quibble about the exact margin you predict she will lose by, but one thing is certain: you’ve been predicting she will lose big from the very beginning. There is no way to square her barely losing with the predictions of disaster you’ve been making from the beginning. I believe “double digits” is the most frequent prediction I’ve heard.

There Goes The Neighborhood on October 29, 2010 at 11:04 PM

The big worry is that number in the blockquote about which candidate is more qualified for the Senate.

He called off the last 2 debates, because she was winning. Chris Coons, if it quacks like a duck, and it waddles like a duck…it’s probably Harry Reid’s pet :)

Dr Evil on October 29, 2010 at 6:36 PM

It is pretty funny that after treating her like an idiot stepchild at their debates — does “I can’t understand what she’s saying” sound familiar? — Coons loses the nerve to debate her again.

Hey, here’s a thought. Maybe it’s Coons that isn’t up to the job, and is hoping nobody figures it out.

There Goes The Neighborhood on October 29, 2010 at 11:09 PM

It would be so great if she won. Girl power.

Mojave Mark on October 29, 2010 at 11:53 PM

Dr. Cassino, the guy responsible for the Fairleigh Dickinson Political Poll is a Liberal Pinhead
http://kingsjester.wordpress.com/2010/10/29/the-political-assassination-of-christine-odonnell/

lovingmyUSA on October 30, 2010 at 12:00 AM

Oh the concern of Vyce…still sucking his thumb and crying over O’Donnell winning the primary. I am really tired of your whining…

lovingmyUSA on October 30, 2010 at 12:03 AM

Of course not, because what I’ve primarily been saying is that it’s a definite she’s GOING to lose.

How much she’s going to lose by isn’t really of consequence. Except, of course, if she DOES lose by ten points, it will make it a bit harder for the ‘true cons’ to sell their “it’s all Karl Rove / RINOs / the Establishment’s fault!!!” narrative. Well, I mean, they’ll STILL try and sell it, but no one who actually has a foothold in reality will treat such an assertion with anything other than an eyeroll at that point.

Vyce on October 29, 2010 at 10:39 PM

Why, that sounds almost celebratory. As if, perish the thought, you’re actually rooting for Coons to win. Now I’m sure those blessed moderates aren’t actually liberals who are ashamed to say so, are they? No, couldn’t be.

ddrintn on October 30, 2010 at 12:14 AM

ddrintn on October 30, 2010 at 12:14 AM

He is only interested in making a point. No caring that the Republican who WON the primary could win…he is only CONCERNED that she lose by enough for him to say “I told you so”. This is a concern troll who is not concerned with wining against a democrap, but in being the one who thumped the drumbeat of RINO loudly enough….

lovingmyUSA on October 30, 2010 at 12:28 AM

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