Survey USA shows GOP leading in all Ohio statewide races
posted at 10:25 am on October 28, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
Like most other pollsters, Survey USA’s final 2010 look at the state of Ohio shows the brief flirtation with blue-state status has likely come to an end. The Democratic incumbent governor trails by five, and the Republican nominee for Senate has a massive fifteen-point win. The big question mark is the Attorney General race and the potential for a Republican sweep at the top of the ticket:
6 days till votes are counted in Ohio, Republican challenger John Kasich appears positioned to take the Ohio statehouse away from incumbent Democratic Governor Ted Strickland, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV in Columbus. At this hour: Kasich 49%, Strickland 44%. …
In the contest for Attorney General of Ohio, Republican challenger Mike DeWine and incumbent Democrat Richard Cordray battle for ballots, DeWine 46%, Cordray 44%. …
Rob Portman is well positioned to be elected US Senator from Ohio, defeating Democrat Lee Fisher, SurveyUSA polling shows. The contest is even among those who tell SurveyUSA they have returned a ballot, but when all respondents are counted, SurveyUSA sees it today as Portman 52%, Fisher 37%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 6 weeks ago, Independents have moved to the Republican, who had led by 7, now by 17.
In Ohio, Democrats have apparently done a good job in getting their supporters to early voting. Strickland has a narrow lead over Kasich among those who say they have already voted, as does Cordray over DeWine, and an even-up in the Senate race. However, Republicans and independents are expected to turn out in force on Election Day, perhaps especially in Ohio, where economic concerns have ruined Strickland’s chances.
Assuming that the wave breaks as expected, this will be a big problem for Democrats down the ticket as well. If the GOP stages a sweep at the top, it’s difficult to see how Democrats will be able to rescue most of their Congressional delegation. There won’t be many voters willing to split a ticket between John Kasich and Steve Dreihaus, for instance, or Rob Portman and Marcy Kaptur. I’d include Dennis Kucinich, but there isn’t really any good reason for Kucinich to be in the House at all, so he could very well survive the forces that are pushing Ohio back to red-state status.
As I’ve mentioned before, that will have a significant impact on Democratic plans to hold the White House in 2012. Ohio isn’t a must-win state for Democrats, but it’s a handy way to cut off any chance of a Republican victory. A Republican hasn’t won without Ohio in decades. Of course, by that time Democrats may have to worry more about Florida, a purple state moving back to red, and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Blowback
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Tell that to John Kerry.
Doughboy on October 28, 2010 at 10:28 AM
This is great news, but I hope that douche DeWine doesn’t view the AG gig as a stepping stone for another run at Guv or Senator.
BuzzCrutcher on October 28, 2010 at 10:32 AM
oh, Ed. Keep singing that sweet, sweet lullaby….
ted c on October 28, 2010 at 10:33 AM
Ohio is now a solidly red state…which makes 2012 all that much more interesting.
neoavatara on October 28, 2010 at 10:35 AM
Ohio isn’t a must-win state for Democrats
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If I didn’t know better,I would think I was reading,the daily beast or huffpo!!!!!And if that were true then why all the biden/obama visits?:)
ohiobabe on October 28, 2010 at 10:36 AM
“Get out and vote!, because freedom is a terrible thing to waste”.
Electrongod on October 28, 2010 at 10:36 AM
Ohio’s state motto: “WITH GOD ALL THINGS ARE POSSIBLE” and I dont think they are talking about “The One”
justonevictory on October 28, 2010 at 10:44 AM
Dog catcher is now a “must win” for Democrats.
cartooner on October 28, 2010 at 10:47 AM
Alas, I live in Toledo, and while I see a lot of Iott yard signs around, especially in the suburban & rural areas, the urban area is heavily Democratic. I’ll vote for Rich, but I expect Marcy to win. Toledo is a heavily union-Democrat town, run by Democrats for ages. And it’s been in decline for some time. I wonder why.
rbj on October 28, 2010 at 10:48 AM
Ohio’s blue state flirtation was always a mirage, and anyone (even Dems) who was following things in 2008 should have known so.
Ohio turned more purple for a lot of the same reasons the rest of the nation did, Obamamania being top of the list. Obama isn’t running this year, and it’s questionable whether he’ll have the same kind of “moment in history” mojo even in 2012.
But the other big reason that Ohio went from purple to blue was the stink of corruption that had surrounded the GOP in the state. It was widespread and bringing down every GOP candidate by 5 points or more. There was absolutely no reason to expect a repeat of the GOP’s 2008 problems in 2010, or 2012, or 2014, or…
Anyone who expected Ohio to remain blue was…well, I’ll say it…stupid.
Chris of Rights on October 28, 2010 at 10:49 AM
My home state is returning to Red status. For as long as I can remember ever so many years Ohio elects a Democrat Governor and then lives to regret it. Some things don’t change except today the unions don’t hold the power they once did even four years ago.
Rob Portman has been a lock for a long time. If John Kasich is up by five with Survey USA, it is a pretty sure bet he is going to win. Also Obama has been in the state a lot which in areas where family and friends live is going to increase turnout against the Democrats.
PhiKapMom on October 28, 2010 at 10:49 AM
This is bad news for Obama in 2012.
The following states are going to flip from D to R Guvs: PA, MI, OH, WI, IL, OR, and NM.
With Repub governors, this will make it tough to win in ’12.
kevinkristy on October 28, 2010 at 10:55 AM
I’m a little worried about the Strickland-Kasich race. Strickland is well-liked.
Paul-Cincy on October 28, 2010 at 11:00 AM
The ads for Strickland and Fischer are pretty much one note. The Wall St. boogyman. God forbid we have someone who actually understands buisness in an executive position.
loudmouth883 on October 28, 2010 at 11:03 AM
Good. Maybe all the jet fuel from Air Force One is stinkin’ up the Ohio air and the good people there have had enough.
redwhiteblue on October 28, 2010 at 11:04 AM
I was doing Ohio GOTV calls yesterday to Republicans and independents who will be going to the polls on Tuesday and I got scared. The Democrat attacks on Kasich about the 2nd Amendment were getting thrown in my face all day long by these voters. Some of them were willing to be re-convinced about voting for Kasich, but a lot were not.
I’m a little worried about Kasich on Tuesday.
myrenovations on October 28, 2010 at 11:11 AM
I don’t know who you’re talking to. I peronally don’t know anyone, including my few democrat friends, who like Strickland. Of course I don’t know any teachers or union thugs either.
loudmouth883 on October 28, 2010 at 11:12 AM
Ohio! Ohio! Ohio!
Dr Evil on October 28, 2010 at 11:22 AM
Perhaps this will finally change the cesspool that was & is Columbus.
Having lived there in 86-87 & visiting back a few years ago, I remained ever convinced it was the best decision of my life after HS to leave that area.
I still have a conservative friend living in Columbus.
He is miserable every day.
Badger40 on October 28, 2010 at 11:26 AM
We’ve had our absentee ballots sent in voting against Finegold for a few weeks now. We did add another conservative voter this election cycle. Did everything to make sure our son got to vote in his very first election so there is one extra to out Finegold.
Brat4life on October 28, 2010 at 11:33 AM
I beg to differ. There is a very good reason for Kukoonich to be there.
Every village needs it’s idiot.
NavyspyII on October 28, 2010 at 11:39 AM
I accompanied my 18-year-old son to the early voting location on Tuesday after discussing my views upon the election and the relative merits of Rubio, Scott and Mica. He got to meet some of the candidates in front of the library (local folks, mayoral candidates and judges) and got a chance to shake hands and listen to them make their case. We have only one early voting location in my area (my God the signs!). I wish I’d had such an experience in my youth.
Immolate on October 28, 2010 at 12:54 PM
I’m voting constitution party and Dr. Pryce for senate. No more GOP bs. Dewine?? Seriously??
joshlbetts on October 28, 2010 at 1:02 PM
I am too. I wish the fricking NRA had sat on its hands. You really think Dems will defend the Second Amendment? And what’s the NRA beef? Kasich’s vote 15 years ago to ban assault rifles? Good grief.
What also p***es me off is that Kasich lost the Chamber of Commerce endorsement. How does a GOP candidate lose that to a Dem a state where the economy is in the tank?
BuckeyeSam on October 28, 2010 at 1:18 PM
As an Ohio republican who burned his membership card because of RINOs like John Kasich and Mike DeWine, I am one of the few who don’t like the size of the wave. Both of the guys have proven time and again that they are opposed to basic human rights and the US Constitution.
Take a look at some of Kasich’s voting record:
1986, Kasich voted for the Hughes Amendment that restricted the rights of handgun owners. [HR 4332, 4/1986]
1994, Congressman Kasich voted twice to support the Clinton Administration’s assault weapons ban. [HR 4296, 5/5/1994; HR 3355, 8/21/1994].
1994, Kasich voted three times in favor of Clinton’s Omnibus Crime Bill that banned numerous firearms. [H Res 526, 8/21/1994; HR 3355, 8/21/1994; HR 3355, 8/21/1994]
“…Kasich not only voted for the Clinton Gun Ban in 1994, but in fact the unpopular and now-defunct gun ban could not have passed without Kasich’s support (the bill passed 216-214)…”
CNN show Inside Politics Extra on May 17, 1996, he said about his vote: “it was just a common sense deal.”
Kasich said on WTVN (610AM) that an overwhelming number of calls to his office were against a ban on assault weapons, but he ignored them because he knew that the “gun lobby” pays people to call. –The Columbus Dispatch
1996, after the Republicans took over Congress, Kasich voted AGAINST repealing the assault weapons ban. [HR 125, 3/22/1996].
1999, Kasich voted twice to ban private transfers of firearms at gun shows – [HR 1501, 9/24/1999; HR 1501, 9/23/1999]
1999, Kasich voted against Congressman Virgil Goode‟s amendment to repeal the law which prohibits District of Columbia residents from possessing a firearm. [HR 2122, 6/18/1999]
That last vote was one that the SCOTUS rules as unConstitutional in the Heller decision.
Is there any more evidence needed than to have your vote ruled unConstituional to prove this man doesn’t have your best interests at heart?
In today’s mail, there was a flyer saying Kasich is firmly in the pro-gun, pro-self defense camp. Well, there is a reason this flyer came out so close to election day. He doesn’t want anyone to have time to dispute his lies.
Chuck on October 28, 2010 at 3:00 PM
By whom??
coldwarrior on October 28, 2010 at 3:44 PM
I may vote for Kasich.
I will not vote for Dewine.
Probably vote for Portman…yeah, I can do that.
But, while Ohio is moving once again toward Conservatives, and away from the Dems, it is no lock for the GOP. Lots of indies on the ballot this time around, been a growth in the Libertarian membership as well, for example…and no, they are not all nuts…still have a few, though, unfortunately…
But, there’s Bob Owens running for Attorney General…Constitution Party…have meet with him, and he has spoken to a good number of Ohioans…have looked over his record and background…seems a lot better than either Dewine or Cordray.
Rich Iott may take Kaptur’s place…this is her closest race since she was first elected 28 years ago. With the huge unemployment in Toledo, and a huge budget deficit and jobs and employers still moving away, and mass city and county layoff’s already under discussion for this fiscal year…a lot of Kaptur’s former captive audience is no longer willing to remain so.
Point being…a move from the Dems in Ohio does not mean a move toward the GOP…at least not yet.
The stain of Taft is still around.
But, Ohio is darn tired of seeing every town and hamlet facing still more unemployment and bust whilst Obama makes visit after visit to what appears to be solely heavily ethnic neighborhoods in major urban areas of Ohio, making promises we all know he will not keep.
That does not play well, does not play well at all.
coldwarrior on October 28, 2010 at 3:56 PM
May vote for Kasich? As though you’d rather see terrible ted back? a vote for some indie is a waste.
Will not vote for DeWine? So, you’d rather help send cordray back? cordray refuses to sue to stop obamacare, and DeWine will file the suit on his first day in office. again, a vote for the indie here is a waste.
seriously, i don’t get it.
knob on October 28, 2010 at 6:25 PM
Well thank you for Obamacare. Im sure you were one of those who voted for Sherrod Brown – one of the most liberal Senators in the U.S. Senate because Dewine was too moderate. Yeah, good trade off. Instead of someone voting with us 70% of the time, we get a guy who votes against us 100% of the time. Tea party logic for you.
Its funny though, that you are voting for Portman. He was a moderate in Congress and he was the architect of Bush’s spending policies. Why the tea party isn’t furious with him I’ll never know.
NoStoppingUs on October 28, 2010 at 10:39 PM
Not until we get rid of the moron mayor Coleman (D).
electric-rascal on October 29, 2010 at 12:05 AM
So, voting in lockstep for any candidate with an “(R) after their name is required? Demanded as a sign of purity? People Voting straight ticket for the “R” is what got the GOP tossed on its butt years ago, and it still is showing the bruises.
And no, I did not vote for Sherrod Brown. Can’t stand him nor most if not all Dems, local races included.
The whole point is that I vote for the best possible candidate on any slate, regardless of an R, or an I, or L, and yes, sometimes a D after their name.
Dewine was no winner as a Senator..far from it. And his desire to be AG after his prior political experience…well, smacks of trying to find a job, any job, where he can stay in the public limelight. Have met him face to face a few times…not impressed then, still not impressed now.
As for Kasich…I may vote for him…might not. My right.
Wasting a vote? Throwing a vote away? The only wasted vote, my friends, is a vote not cast.
If you are concerned “my vote” will be wasted or will somehow enable a Dem to win the governorship (heaven forbid) or become the next AG or US Senator from Ohio, there is a simple solution. Bring along a handful of friends, relatives and co-workers to the polls on Tuesday to vote. The higher the turnout, the better all around.
But, unless you’ve not been around for the past many many years, your assumptions about me and what I stand for and who I stand with, are totally false. Dyed in the wool Conservative here and have the record to prove it.
coldwarrior on October 29, 2010 at 2:24 AM
So I should vote for Mikey DeWine and his big fat “F” from the NRA, while Ohio has a very pro-gun pro-self defense Attorney General who is doing everything he can to promote personal freedom?
No thanks. I will vote with my head and my heart and reject blind partisnship. Anyone who says Mikey DeWine votes with us 70% of the time is either a democrat, or hasn’t bothered to look up his record. It would be much more accurate to say Mike DeWine voted with Clinton 70% of the time!
Richard Cordray has put an end to police abusing law abiding citizens who choose to legally defend themselves, and stood up to the mighty FOP in favor of the citizens of this great state instead.
A vote for Mike Dewine is a vote to return to the bad old days of legal concealed handgun licensees being pulled from cars at gunpoint at every traffic stop and DUI checkpoint and a return to statewide laws that codify our rights being ignored on the local level.
If/when the Ohio Republican Party quits putting RINOs on the ballot I may, that is MAY, start voting party lines again. As it stands now, I refuse to vote for Liberals, any Liberal, no matter which party they happen to belong to.
Chuck on October 29, 2010 at 7:54 AM