Gallup: No movement towards Democrats yet

posted at 8:40 am on October 28, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Have Democrats made a big comeback in the final days of the midterm election?  Barack Obama has conducted a barnstorming tour — mainly of safely-blue districts — attempting to fire up the base for most of this month.  Democrats keep declaring that the party’s base has responded with enough force to blunt Republican gains on Tuesday.  However, Gallup has conducted another demographic survey of likely voters — and find that very little has changed in the past three weeks:

Gallup’s latest figures on the composition of the 2010 electorate suggest that, consistent with an earlier Gallup report, those voting in this year’s congressional elections across the country will be similar in gender, age, and education to 2006 voters. At the same time, they will be substantially more Republican in their party orientation, and more conservative than has been the case in the past several midterms.

The current and historical likely voter data reviewed here assume an approximately 40% turnout rate among national adults for each election, close to the typical turnout rate recorded in recent midterm years. (Gallup has also calculated the 2010 congressional vote using an assumption of higher turnout.)

Specifically, 55% of likely voters in Gallup’s Oct. 14-24, 2010, polling are Republicans and independents who lean Republican. This is higher than the Republican showing in the past four midterm elections, although not too dissimilar to the 51% found in 2002. The corollary of this is that the 40% of likely voters now identifying as Democratic is the lowest such percentage of the past several midterms.

Notably, this year’s high Republican representation among likely voters stems mainly from a substantial increase in Republican-leaning independents in the likely voter pool — now at 16% — reflecting the broader shift toward the Republican Party among independents evident since 2009.

At the beginning of the month, Gallup found that likely voters in the smaller-turnout model favored Republicans by 18 points, 57/39, with 4% either choosing neither party or undecided.  After three weeks of tens of millions of dollars, presidential stumping, and even Bill Clinton attempting to stem the tide, the numbers have moved — but only within the margin of error.  The survey now shows a 15-point gap, more than twice the lead in any midterm going back to 1994, 55/40.

We have experienced two “wave” elections in the previous sixteen years, 1994 and 2006.  In the first, the GOP led by five points in the final Gallup survey, 49/44, with self-described moderates leading the charge, 48% to 40% for conservatives and 12% for liberals.  In 2006, Democrats held a seven-point advantage in likely voters, while conservatives made up the plurality at 42%, moderates trailed at 37%, and liberals hit their apex at 21%.  Liberals this year will be 20% of likely voters, but conservatives will hit their highest level within this period at 48%, and moderates will hit their lowest level in the same time frame at 32%.  The middle has gotten squeezed as the Right and Left get more muscular.

Those numbers actually have changed over the past three weeks, however.  At the beginning of the month, those numbers looked even more polarized, with 57% of the likely-voter pool being conservatives, 18% liberals, and 27% moderates.  The difference among liberals is within the MOE, but more statistically significant for conservatives (-9) and moderates (+5).  That does indicate that the pool of likely voters may have expanded this month as more moderates engage, hinting at a higher turnout — but almost no difference at all in outcome.  And that is very, very bad news for Democrats.


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Comments

I think the “wave” phenomenon is going to influence voters this cycle. Just as the “historic first black president” phenomenon likely resulted in a point or two for Obama in 2008, the likelihood of a gigantic Republican landslide across the board may influence some of those undecideds to just get up on that wave and surf right along with it–rather than trying to stand alone against it on the beach.

Kowabunga indeed.

ted c on October 28, 2010 at 8:46 AM

I’m having what amounts to a “Super Bowl Party” Tues night to watch the returns on the big screen with neighbors. I don’t see anything changing for the better for the D’rats, people have pretty much decided and are just waiting to go vote and watch.

cartooner on October 28, 2010 at 8:47 AM

Bad news for the libbies is good news for America.
Stop these Jackazzes (donkeys) from the big govt and power grab.

hawkman on October 28, 2010 at 8:48 AM

SCARY INDEED!

TheAlamos on October 28, 2010 at 8:48 AM

Except, in CA, where Dems are locking it down. *sigh*

AnninCA on October 28, 2010 at 8:48 AM

This could partially explain, REAL EYE OPENER!!!

WOW

winston on October 28, 2010 at 8:49 AM

Yippee ki yea, big kahuna.

Donkey don’t surf.

Finally, the HMS Obama runs aground before it can do further damage.

NoDonkey on October 28, 2010 at 8:49 AM

Except in CA. Dems look like they are locking it down there.

AnninCA on October 28, 2010 at 8:50 AM

*oops….thought that was a lost post

AnninCA on October 28, 2010 at 8:50 AM

Iranian TV suggests Obama won’t last his full first term.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/148446.html

cribbed from drudge

ted c on October 28, 2010 at 8:51 AM

‘I am Martin Hessler. Four years ago, my panzers overran Poland in one week, that was no illusion. In 39 days, my tanks smashed all the way to Paris, that was no illusion. I conquered the Crimea, that was no illusion.’ – Col Hessler

Victory disease, a game a whole country can play.

Limerick on October 28, 2010 at 8:51 AM

I believe they keep saying this because they expect that democratic voter (fraud) turnout will be unprecedented this year.

loudmouth883 on October 28, 2010 at 8:54 AM

Cue Kevin Bacon in Animal House: “All is well!”

search4truth on October 28, 2010 at 8:54 AM

Except in CA. Dems look like they are locking it down there.

AnninCA on October 28, 2010 at 8:50 AM

it boggles the mind

cmsinaz on October 28, 2010 at 8:56 AM

And that is very, very bad news for Democrats.

However, SEIU members maintain the voting machines. That is very, very good news for Democrats.

Disturb the Universe on October 28, 2010 at 8:58 AM

cmsinaz on October 28, 2010 at 8:56 AM

Indoctrination and brainwashing is strong with that one (CA).

B Man on October 28, 2010 at 8:59 AM

No movement towards Democrats yet

The only “movement” will be on Tuesday night when the free-spending entitlement-minded liberals will have to change their soiled pants—several times.

Stay motivated! Email your friends, (and “Obama’s enemies”), make phone calls, offer to take some one to the polls or watch the kids while they go vote. Don’t just think it will happen—MAKE IT HAPPEN!

Rovin on October 28, 2010 at 9:00 AM

I can sense, however, that the analysis of “why” this happened will trudge on down the road of not noticing the obvious: People dislike the Democratic agenda in a big way.

Instead, the analysts are already revving up the talk about how 2012 will be different because his Black and youth base groups will be out in force.

It’s going to take more than one election to drive home the point, even with the GOP regulars.

AnninCA on October 28, 2010 at 9:02 AM

B Man on October 28, 2010 at 8:59 AM

indeed

cmsinaz on October 28, 2010 at 9:03 AM

ted c on October 28, 2010 at 8:51 AM

That’s the Iranian state-controlled media quoting a LaRouchie nutcase. It practically defines “unserious.”

Ed Morrissey on October 28, 2010 at 9:03 AM

that is very, very bad news for Democrats

And very, very good news for the nation that has suffered under their incredibly incompetent and corrupt leadership for the past 4 years.

AZCoyote on October 28, 2010 at 9:04 AM

Talked to my mom yesterday, who has voted straight Democrat since Stevenson Kefauver. She voted R this year. Crazy stuff when you lose people that loyal.

Ted Torgerson on October 28, 2010 at 9:04 AM

“Party on the TEANAMI like it’s 1773!!”

PappyD61 on October 28, 2010 at 9:04 AM

the analysts are already revving up the talk about how 2012 will be different because his Black and youth base groups will be out in force.

AnninCA on October 28, 2010 at 9:02 AM

And those groups will have plenty of time for voting, since none of them will have jobs.

AZCoyote on October 28, 2010 at 9:06 AM

I still think Obama should have stayed off the camapign trial and instead be seen doing the people’s business. Obama has no been camapigning more then governing sinc ehis election. He should of taking the high ground instead he showed himself to be a partisan hack the likes of a ROve or a Beckel. Not a president of the US

unseen on October 28, 2010 at 9:07 AM

In California, the inland areas will trend red in the House races.
The coastal areas where I live are just gone- no industry, no desire,nothing but France wannabes.
It’s terminal since so many productive people and families have moved away over the years.
Jerry Brown, a total disaster as Governor- again?
Thats all you need to know.

jjshaka on October 28, 2010 at 9:09 AM

Who will volunteer for the first shift of ‘suicide watch’ for tingles & olberdouch?

lukespapa on October 28, 2010 at 9:09 AM

Ed Morrissey on October 28, 2010 at 9:03 AM

guess I should read more than the headline, eh.?

*note to self*

ted c on October 28, 2010 at 9:10 AM

So let’s review.

Gallup LV generic ballot:

1994: 49R/44D – 4 point R lead – Rs pick up 54 seats
2006: 51D/44R – 7 point D lead Ds pick up 31 seats
2010: 55R/40D – 15 point R lead – ???

Since clearly the poll tends overstates Dem support (Dems needed a 7 point lead to pick up 31 seats in 2006, whereas Rs only needed a 4 point lead to pick up 54 seats in 1994) this is looking pretty damned huge for the GOP.

I’ve been predicting an 80 seat pickup for the last couple of months; based on these numbers I see no reason why it should be any lower than that, and it could be substantially higher.

Missy on October 28, 2010 at 9:11 AM

Who will volunteer for the first shift of ‘suicide watch’ for tingles & olberdouch?

lukespapa on October 28, 2010 at 9:09 AM

Election night will probably get them the highest ratings they’ve seen in a very long time, as millions of conservatives tune in to watch them go postal.

AZCoyote on October 28, 2010 at 9:13 AM

BUT BUT BUT JOHN STEWART AND THE DAILY SHOW!@!11eleventy!

COMEDY CENTRAL IZ SERIUS BIZNIZ!!

Good Lt on October 28, 2010 at 9:15 AM

Who will volunteer for the first shift of ‘suicide watch’ for tingles & olberdouch?

lukespapa on October 28, 2010 at 9:09 AM

ME!
Raise’s hand while putting on blindfold!

Rovin on October 28, 2010 at 9:15 AM

Who will volunteer for the first shift of ‘suicide watch’ for tingles & olberdouch?

lukespapa on October 28, 2010 at 9:09 AM

isn’t that a “prevention” method??? Any volunteers from here would probably choose the “facilitation” method…

(death panels)
jus sayin…

ted c on October 28, 2010 at 9:16 AM

the analysts are already revving up the talk about how 2012 will be different because his Black and youth base groups will be out in force.
AnninCA on October 28, 2010 at 9:02 AM

I don’t buy that. If Obama had that kind of sway over both groups,’they’d be out in force now.

joejm65 on October 28, 2010 at 9:16 AM

Election night will probably get them the highest ratings they’ve seen in a very long time, as millions of conservatives tune in to watch them go postal.

AZCoyote on October 28, 2010 at 9:13 AM

i believe you are right

cmsinaz on October 28, 2010 at 9:28 AM

Except in CA. Dems look like they are locking it down there.

AnninCA on October 28, 2010 at 8:50 AM

It’s about turnout.
I’ll be in California
For Get Out The Vote.

This election is going to go to the people who bother to show up. The Senate and Governor’s races are close enough that a large Republican turn-out can overcome the polling difference, particularly in a wave election like 2010.

Republicans are fired up. Fiorina voters are fired up. Whitman voters are… somewhat less fired up, but a heck of a lot more fired up than the folks who have to vote for Jerry Brown…

I’m going to be doing GOTV in a deeply blue Congressional District. Ain’t no way Sheila Lee is going to lose. But the Republicans there will have something to vote for this time around, with a real chance to unseat Boxer. Let’s hope all the Donks stay home, figuring this one is in the bag.

Haiku Guy on October 28, 2010 at 9:34 AM

I’ve been predicting an 80 seat pickup for the last couple of months; based on these numbers I see no reason why it should be any lower than that, and it could be substantially higher.

Missy on October 28, 2010 at 9:11 AM

My local candidate in NJ-6 is always at around 100 on the lists, and I know Anna Little is going to beat Frank Pallone like a drum. So I figure if Anna wins, the 99 other ‘Pubbies in front of her on the list will win, too.

So I predict 100 seats, minimum. 99 if we lose Cao.

Haiku Guy on October 28, 2010 at 9:39 AM

Gallup: No movement towards Democrats yet

Wrong! A gigantic movement’s roaring towards Democrats. It’s called a tsunami, or, as I prefer, a “Goodbye” wave.

Dr. Charles G. Waugh on October 28, 2010 at 9:42 AM

ted c on October 28, 2010 at 9:16 AM

I volunteer to help with assisted suicide.

I want to make a difference.

NoDonkey on October 28, 2010 at 9:42 AM

The Dems are in full panic mode.

kingsjester on October 28, 2010 at 9:44 AM

Except, in CA, where Dems are locking it down. *sigh*

AnninCA on October 28, 2010 at 8:48 AM

It is so discouraging that California, with the biggest economy in the country is filled with completely irresponsible people!

If the Idea of European Socialism has taken hold anywhere in the country it is California, Oregon, and Washington!

My father worked in the Saw mills of Northern California in the 1930s (depression era, better than working for the WPA), he used to tell a story about the two unions fighting each other and even being part of a crowd on a bridge watching as one union member drowned another a rival union member in the river.

He worked construction when farming was bad. He joined unions out of fear. Unions have always been totalitarian. And unions have always been in control of logging, saw mills, and construction. That is how communism got it’s start in the Pacific North West.

petunia on October 28, 2010 at 9:45 AM

Shades of 1894 (Thanks to Mr. Barone for mentioning this)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1894

Wow. Some similarities there…

dogsoldier on October 28, 2010 at 9:54 AM

However, SEIU members maintain the voting machines. That is very, very good news for Democrats.

Disturb the Universe on October 28, 2010 at 8:58 AM

Like the ones in Nevada, pre-voted for Harry Reid.

Steve Z on October 28, 2010 at 10:04 AM

When I looked at the picture, at first I couldn’t even see the surfer. I imagine that dude as the Obamessiah with the whole ocean about to crash down on his leftwing dreams. I sure hope it happens — because we need it!

jwolf on October 28, 2010 at 10:21 AM

November 3rd will be soooooooooooooooooooooo SWEET!

GarandFan on October 28, 2010 at 10:24 AM

the analysts are already revving up the talk about how 2012 will be different because his Black and youth base groups will be out in force.
AnninCA on October 28, 2010 at 9:02 AM

Go back to 1993 in New York, and the same rationale was being given as to why David Dinkins was going to win his rematch over Rudy Giuliani after being elected as the city’s first African-American mayor and handling the job as well as Obama’s handling the presidency. It didn’t work out, because the number of people energized to vote against Dinkins offset the turnout of people still committed to his liberal agenda, even in New York City.

Obama’s younger and considered more hip (by the media) thasn Dave ever was, so he might still get a little bigger “protect the king” turnout of voters in 2012. But if Obama doesn’t change his ways, he’s likely to juice turnout among voters wanting him out of office more than he does for those wanting four more years.

jon1979 on October 28, 2010 at 10:26 AM

Tea Party no ka ‘oi..

..when we be pau hana da dems be all buss up. Mo bettah you geevum da kine, bra!

The War Planner on October 28, 2010 at 10:42 AM

So I predict 100 seats, minimum. 99 if we lose Cao.

Haiku Guy on October 28, 2010 at 9:39 AM

100 is what I want to predict! But when I settled on 80 it seemed sort of outrageous at the time. We shall see.

Thank you for your GOTV work and I hope you have a fabulous Election Night.

Missy on October 28, 2010 at 10:55 AM

This cake has really been baked for months. We’re just waiting til Nov 3 to open the oven door. It’s gonna be sweet!

JimK on October 28, 2010 at 11:16 AM

2006 and 2008 were the aberrations, looking from a long-term perspective.

Vashta.Nerada on October 28, 2010 at 11:33 AM

One thing Obummer has done to great success. He has taught us conservatives to never write off an election and sit it out. Of course on the other hand if McCain had won we would probably be in a bigger mess so maybe it is a great lesson that teaches two lessons. Work to get our candidate nominated in the primary as well as general and all need to be informed and politically active. No more being a couch potato yelling at the TV.

Herb on October 28, 2010 at 12:44 PM

Announcement today that new unemployment applications are down. Anyone believe the October data from JOTUS’s administration?

slickwillie2001 on October 28, 2010 at 2:40 PM

Ed said:
with 57% of the likely-voter pool being conservatives, 18% liberals, and 27% moderates.

Alright, that’s 102%, what am I missing?

jnelchef on October 28, 2010 at 4:12 PM