Could Djou hold his district in Hawaii?

posted at 3:55 pm on October 28, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

When Charles Djou won a special election to replace Neil Abercrombie in the House earlier this year, most people chalked it up to the dynamics of the compressed campaign and the two Democrats who split the opposition vote.  Djou took only 39% of the vote, while Democrats Colleen Hanabusa and Ed Case split 57%, making Djou the first Republican to hold the seat in 19 years to represent the District.  In a general election, against just one Democrat, Djou would almost certainly get blown out.

Surprise!

The race for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District seat is too close to call. The latest poll numbers show Charles Djou and Colleen Hanabusa are virtually tied with a little more than a week to go until the general election.

Ward Research conducted the poll for Hawaii News Now and the Honolulu Star-Advertiser.

With just nine days left until the election, Republican Congressional candidate Charles Djou and Democratic challenger Colleen Hanabusa are neck and neck, according to the results of our new poll.

Four hundred six voters in the 1st Congressional District were asked if the election were held today, who would you vote for. Forty-eight percent said Djou, while 46% chose Hanabusa. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

This is not exactly unprecedented.  Pat Saiki won two terms in this seat before she tried her luck in a 1990 Senate race in an attempt to unseat Daniel Akaka, and did well to get within ten points of the then-appointed Senator filling out Spark Matsunaga’s term in office. Republicans can win here … it’s just that they rarely do.

The 1st CD has a Cook rating of D+11, which is daunting but not insurmountable in this election.  Djou also wisely kept himself busy on policy and avoided partisan grandstanding while in Washington, focusing mainly on economic policy and fiscal responsibility.  As in so many other districts around the country, this has proven a winning message for Djou and Republicans, especially by attracting independents that see the culture wars as off-putting.

Also, at the time Djou won in May, I speculated that taking back the seat may be more difficult for Democrats even without the headwinds they face.  Giving Djou just five months to prove himself is a rather short trial run even for House members, and I thought Djou had a good chance of keeping enough goodwill with voters that they would give him a full term to earn their trust.  It seems that Djou has added to his base from May in the following months, a good indication that he has at least earned a longer trial run on Capitol Hill.

A win by Djou would provide a cherry on the cake for a Republican wave.  Check out his website to learn more, and watch my interview with Djou in June at this link.


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Heard this guy on Hugh Hewitt show.

Very impressive candidate. (can’t speak to his positions, only on how he handles himself in the interview)

aquaviva on October 28, 2010 at 3:58 PM

I’ve followed this guy’s campaign. Seems to be very energetic.

MeatHeadinCA on October 28, 2010 at 4:00 PM

Djou can do it!

Rocks on October 28, 2010 at 4:01 PM

I hope he wins – I’ve been impressed with him in the few interviews I’ve seen.

supernova on October 28, 2010 at 4:01 PM

Djou can do it!

Rocks on October 28, 2010 at 4:01 PM

Ahhh…

Just Djou it!

MeatHeadinCA on October 28, 2010 at 4:02 PM

That would be sweet!

Lanceman on October 28, 2010 at 4:03 PM

Charles Djou on FOXNews Red Eye

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2uCwsUDNl0

canopfor on October 28, 2010 at 4:04 PM

The Fifty-eth State will pull it through!

canopfor on October 28, 2010 at 4:05 PM

Djou I want him to win?
Djes I Djou.

esnap on October 28, 2010 at 4:05 PM

canopfor on October 28, 2010 at 4:04 PM

Thx

MeatHeadinCA on October 28, 2010 at 4:08 PM

Charles Djou is a very impressive candidate! We need Charles and more people like him in Congress!

He graduated from Punahou School in Honolulu and the University of Pennsylvania earning degrees in Political Science and Economics from the Wharton School of Finance and Commerce. He received his juris doctor from the University of Southern California Law School.

Congressman Djou is a Captain in the U.S. Army Reserve. And he has taught at the University of Hawaii Richardson School of Law, the University of Hawaii West Oahu, and Hawaii Pacific University.

Charles Djou has a schedule posted on his website showing when his volunteers will be doing phone banking and sign waving.

If you live in Charles Djou’s district please find out how you can help his campaign!

http://www.djou.com/

wren on October 28, 2010 at 4:09 PM

Is there a strong Dead Democrat Voter turnout in Hawaii?

MeatHeadinCA on October 28, 2010 at 4:10 PM

Could Djou hold his district in Hawaii?

Why do I have to do all the work?

RINO in Name Only on October 28, 2010 at 4:10 PM

Can the wave reach Hawaii? Yes, I think it can.

darwin on October 28, 2010 at 4:15 PM

Auwe!

Del Dolemonte on October 28, 2010 at 4:16 PM

Can the wave reach Hawaii? Yes, I think it can.

darwin on October 28, 2010 at 4:15 PM

The question is, will it be strong enough to capsize it?

RINO in Name Only on October 28, 2010 at 4:17 PM

Kind of OT, but has anyone played Live Like Harry Reid!?

http://www.livelikereid.com/

MeatHeadinCA on October 28, 2010 at 4:18 PM

Apparently he’s got the Three Stooges of fake Revrum’ing in a frenzy. I hear Al $harpton, Jazzy Jack$on, and Jeremiah Wright were running about screaming “It’s a Djou! It’s a Djou!”

viking01 on October 28, 2010 at 4:18 PM

I remember Beckel on Hannity some time ago saying that Djou had no chance in the Nov. election. He even said he would eat something if Djou won, unfortunatley I can’t remember what that was. Pass the salt!

rjoco1 on October 28, 2010 at 4:20 PM

Fap-tastic!

lorien1973 on October 28, 2010 at 4:21 PM

I remember Beckel on Hannity some time ago saying that Djou had no chance in the Nov. election. He even said he would eat something if Djou won, unfortunatley I can’t remember what that was. Pass the salt!

rjoco1 on October 28, 2010 at 4:20 PM

Hey, there were people here that said they’d eat hats if the Good Republican Crist ran as an Indy… no word on how that hat tasted, yet.

MeatHeadinCA on October 28, 2010 at 4:22 PM

By the time the Big Red Wave hits Hawaii, we will already have taken the House easily so Dems will stay home and Djou will win in a walk!

tims472 on October 28, 2010 at 4:23 PM

canopfor on October 28, 2010 at 4:04 PM
==============
Thx

MeatHeadinCA on October 28, 2010 at 4:08 PM

MeatHeadinCA:)

canopfor on October 28, 2010 at 4:23 PM

That would be awesome, but Allahpundit told me there was no way he could win the general election.

I trust the all-knowing Allahpundit.

chief on October 28, 2010 at 4:23 PM

Absolutely NO sleep Nov 2/3 !
Way cool !!

pambi on October 28, 2010 at 4:25 PM

Power of the incumbency.

angryed on October 28, 2010 at 4:26 PM

Hey, there were people here that said they’d eat hats if the Good Republican Crist ran as an Indy… no word on how that hat tasted, yet.

MeatHeadinCA on October 28, 2010 at 4:22 PM

MeatHeadCA:SSSSSSHhhhhhhhhh,not soooo loud,or *JetBoy will
go on another I voted for Crist,worst voting
mistake I ever made thingy!!!:)

*(JetBoy,all in fun):)

canopfor on October 28, 2010 at 4:27 PM

Oops,sorry Meat,forgot the in!

canopfor on October 28, 2010 at 4:28 PM

We’re also hoping Duke Aiona and Lynn Finnagan wins the Governorship and Lt. Governorship respectively.

Djou is very well spoken and thoughtful. His opponent, Colleen Hanabusa is an Obama shill, just like Abercrombis.

Both of them talk like Obama. Even during the debates.

Kini on October 28, 2010 at 4:28 PM

If ethridge can be defeated anything is possible…..

Democratic incumbent Congressman Bob Etheridge’s electoral future appears to be in jeopardy as he trails Republican challenger Renee Ellmers by 5 percentage points with less than one week until the election.

According to the poll of 400 registered voters in North Carolina’s 2nd Congressional District, Ellmers leads Etheridge 46 percent to 41 percent. Libertarian candidate Tom Rose garners 6 percent of the vote while 7 percent of voters are undecided.

Among voters who say they are definitely voting this year, Ellmers’ lead grows to 49 percent to 40 percent.

“Bob Etheridge is in the political fight of his life,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes. “The Republican tide sweeping across the nation appears to be catching Bob Etheridge in its wake.”

Ellmers is able to build a lead due to strength among unaffiliated voters who are supporting her by a 52-19 margin. Etheridge is also losing 20 percent of his Democratic base vote to Ellmers.

Support for Etheridge tracks nearly in line with voter support for President Barack Obama in the district. An identical 41 percent of voters both approve of the job Obama is doing as President and say they are voting for Etheridge. Ninety-seven percent of voters who say they disapprove of the job Obama is doing are voting for Ellmers.

“Voter dissatisfaction with President Obama and Congress is more of a factor in this race than the personality of either of the candidates. It may not matter what Bob Etheridge does or says, voters are taking out their frustrations with Washington on him,” added Hayes.

unseen on October 28, 2010 at 4:30 PM

I was in a friend’s office the other day while she was filling out her absentee ballot…she voted Abercrombie for Gov (ugh.) but she is a Dem…so then she said “who for congress?” I said “Djou” – she agreed because she said Hanabusa is a bad person and a few other unsavory comments not to be printed here. Bottom line, Hanabusa is a flawed candidate and a mean person that even the Dems don’t really like. I do believe the wave will hit Hawaii and I am loving it!

HawaiiLwyr on October 28, 2010 at 4:31 PM

canopfor on October 28, 2010 at 4:27 PM

Ugh… I’ll save my comments for Nov 3.

MeatHeadinCA on October 28, 2010 at 4:31 PM

Both of them talk like Obama. Even during the debates.

Kini on October 28, 2010 at 4:28 PM

I’m sorry. The teleprompters must be quite unattractive, especially in Hawaii.

MeatHeadinCA on October 28, 2010 at 4:32 PM

HawaiiLwyr on October 28, 2010 at 4:31 PM

Hey, good news

MeatHeadinCA on October 28, 2010 at 4:33 PM

I saw that this race at RCP he had jumped ahead. This would be very nice indeed. Considering liberals, even my left leaning wife, said he would lose his seat this would be huge. It would be a great way to top off all the blank stares the MSM would be giving to the camera.

closetgop on October 28, 2010 at 4:37 PM

Is there a strong Dead Democrat Voter turnout in Hawaii?

That’s what’s sweet about winning these Dem strongholds- they’ve been in the hammock so long they don’t have the fraud infrastructure set up.

Bat Chain Puller on October 28, 2010 at 4:40 PM

HawaiiLwyr on October 28, 2010 at 4:31 PM

I agree, Hanabusa as Senate president was confrontational and probably made a few enemies.

Love that early voting. When you vote, they check your ID and your registration right at the door. The machines and ballots are in 4 different languages.

Kini on October 28, 2010 at 4:40 PM

The question is, will it be strong enough to capsize it?

RINO in Name Only on October 28, 2010 at 4:17 PM

Yes. It will tip over and capsize like Guam.

Missy on October 28, 2010 at 4:41 PM

That’s what’s sweet about winning these Dem strongholds- they’ve been in the hammock so long they don’t have the fraud infrastructure set up.

Bat Chain Puller on October 28, 2010 at 4:40 PM

Ding ding ding! So true. They have never had to cheat in these districts before, so they never bothered to set it up.

And there are far more races this cycle that require cheating, so not enough minions to go around. For example, Chicago sends buses of voters up to Wisconsin each election, but they will never find enough buses this year to save Feingold.

Missy on October 28, 2010 at 4:45 PM

And there are far more races this cycle that require cheating, so not enough minions to go around. For example, Chicago sends buses of voters up to Wisconsin each election, but they will never find enough buses this year to save Feingold.

Missy on October 28, 2010 at 4:45 PM

They will need all those buses to go around IL and vote for the crooked banker 4 or 5 times. No time to play in Wisconsin. Sorry Sen. Feingold, you’re on your own. Although I’m sure there are enough dead voters in Milwaukee to help you out.

angryed on October 28, 2010 at 4:54 PM

Hawaii must be one of the only states where Obama is NOT persona non grata. Hanabusa’s ads feature him prominently and she goes out of her way to tie herself to him and his policies.

To hear the content of these ads, the local democrats must be really misinformed about the nature of the economy and its causes.

StubbleSpark on October 28, 2010 at 4:55 PM

canopfor on October 28, 2010 at 4:27 PM
==============
Ugh… I’ll save my comments for Nov 3.

MeatHeadinCA on October 28, 2010 at 4:31 PM

MeatHeadinCA: Oh come on,I’m just goofing a bit,ahem!!

Speaking of November 2,3,I’ll hold off on
perdictions tho!:)

canopfor on October 28, 2010 at 5:01 PM

To hear the content of these ads, the local democrats must be really misinformed about the nature of the economy and its causes.

StubbleSpark on October 28, 2010 at 4:55 PM

Some people here a blinded by allegation that Obama was born here in Hawai’i, and therefore turn a deaf ear to Obama’s damaging policies.

The democrats do align themselves to Obama, even Abercrombie’s logo is eerily similar to Obama’s.

However, they are not misinformed. They know what they are doing because it’s what has kept them in power for so long. There are basically two kinds of jobs here; state workers and tourism. Public works out numbers private jobs almost 4 to 1

Kini on October 28, 2010 at 5:11 PM

However, they are not misinformed. They know what they are doing because it’s what has kept them in power for so long. There are basically two kinds of jobs here; state workers and tourism. Public works out numbers private jobs almost 4 to 1

Kini on October 28, 2010 at 5:11 PM

True, this state is something of a government plantation, but many of those jobs are military and/or DoD-related positions. What I find hard to believe is that folks are inclined to fall in line with Obama’s rhetoric on that commercial when he claims Republicans would “turn back the clock”.

StubbleSpark on October 28, 2010 at 5:19 PM

He’s a very good candidate. Media-wise, I dig the fact that his wife does some of his ads…and he’s run what looks like to be an almost totally upbeat and positive campaign.

Considering this is Hawaii, I doubt he’s going to have a lot of fans here on social issues, but he is championing fiscal conservatism.

Check out his website…donate if you have the wherewithal.

Asher on October 28, 2010 at 5:20 PM

What district is Kenya in Hawaii?

44Magnum on October 28, 2010 at 5:29 PM

What I find hard to believe is that folks are inclined to fall in line with Obama’s rhetoric on that commercial when he claims Republicans would “turn back the clock”.

StubbleSpark on October 28, 2010 at 5:19 PM

Dod yes, also state, I would add.

Obama has had some success in pushing the FUD message. The only thing to do is to try and educate the electorate.

Kini on October 28, 2010 at 5:31 PM

I remember Beckel on Hannity some time ago saying that Djou had no chance in the Nov. election. He even said he would eat something if Djou won, unfortunatley I can’t remember what that was. Pass the salt!

rjoco1 on October 28, 2010 at 4:20 PM

JetBoy’s hat, perhaps?

hoosiermama on October 28, 2010 at 5:36 PM

Is there a strong Dead Democrat Voter turnout in Hawaii?

MeatHeadinCA on October 28, 2010 at 4:10 PM

I live on the Big Island as does Kini.

I would think here it is 80% dem. almost half the population is on welfare.
Labor laws make it where many jobs are part time.

I bet 80% of the people here are either Union employees, Gubment employees, or welfare recipients.

The average per capita drain on the federal government in Hawaii is almost $4000.00.

esnap on October 28, 2010 at 6:21 PM