Senate polls in PA, NC show GOP firming up wins

posted at 10:02 am on October 27, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

New polling in three key states shows the GOP on track to hold one seat, pick up another, and perhaps remain within striking distance of an upset.  In Pennsylvania, where Democrat Arlen Specter got forcibly retired in a primary, Pat Toomey leads by seven in a new Franklin & Marshall poll among likely voters — and leads by two in a larger group of registered voters as well.  F&M says that claims of a Democratic surge in Pennsylvania were unfounded:

Pennsylvania appears to light up noticeably red ahead of Tuesday’s voting in the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races, according to the final Franklin & Marshall poll of this midterm election.

Among registered voters, Republican Tom Corbett leads Democrat Dan Onorato in the race for governor by 12 points, 42 percent to 30 percent with 26 percent undecided.

Corbett’s lead stretches to 15 points among likely voters, 47 percent to 32 percent with 19 percent undecided.

When registered adults that lean toward a candidate are included, Corbett’s lead remains about the same among likely voters, 51 percent to 35 percent with 11 percent undecided.

The poll, which was released Tuesday, also finds that Republican Pat Toomey maintained his lead over Democrat Joe Sestak by 2 points among registered adults.

Toomey’s lead extends to seven points among those more likely to vote, according to poll director G. Terry Madonna.

The flurry of polls showing Sestak moving up against Toomey have mainly reversed themselves, with the exceptions of PPP and Reuters.  The only hope Democrats have in the Keystone State is a massive turnout of their base in Philadelphia.  Madonna noted that Bill Clinton and Barack Obama seem to be “residing in the city” these days in hope of pushing the vote, but sees no evidence that they’re succeeding.

In North Carolina, a race that has mainly escaped national attention, Richard Burr has put himself in position to be the first Senator to win re-election in that seat in decades.  Elaine Marshall trails by 15 while Burr gets over the 50% mark in the latest Survey USA poll:

In an election for US Senator from North Carolina today, 10/26/10, 1 week until votes are counted, incumbent Republican Richard Burr defeats Democrat Elaine Marshall 53% to 38%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WRAL-TV in Raleigh.

The contest is closer than it was 6 weeks ago, when an identical SurveyUSA WRAL-TV poll found Burr up 24 points; today Burr is up 15. In the end, Marshall cannot overcome the fact that 1 in 4 Democrats statewide cross-over and vote Republican, and that Independents break 2:1 against her.

In fact, Burr tied Marshall in the Raleigh area, usually a Democratic stronghold, 45/45. Marshall has had a strong headwind in this race named Barack Obama, who has become highly unpopular in a state he won in 2008. Obama has a -20 favorability rating in the state, 34/54.  Burr even wins 22% of the African-American vote, a result that should have the White House worried about their re-election chances.  Burr wins every age demographic and every income demographic as well.

The news is not as good in California.  Survey USA’s poll today shows Carly Fiorina five points off the pace, but Barbara Boxer is still stuck at 45% with a week to go:

For US Senator, incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer and Republican challenger Carly Fiorina are even today among voters interviewed on their home telephones, but when voters without home phones, interviewed on their cellphones, are combined, Boxer tops Fiorina 45% to 40%.

Boxer had a 17-point lead among cell-phone only voters, but with oddly low numbers, 43/26 and 22% undecided.  Given Boxer’s high profile in the state and the lateness of the hour, so to speak, those undecideds could break hard away from the incumbent in this cycle.  Fiorina wins seniors and thirty-somethings by pluralities, while Boxer wins the other age demographics by majorities.  It’s going to take a big investment to get Fiorina across the finish line, and the NRSC apparently agrees:

It was the expenditure heard ’round the political world: The GOP is pouring $3 million into the race against Sen. Barbara Boxer on behalf of GOP nominee Carly Fiorina.

The news Monday that the National Republican Senatorial Committee planned to dump that much money into California, this late in the campaign, was enough to cause a double take. The NRSC was already in for $4.8 million in coordinated spending — making the nearly $8 million total expenditure in California the most the committee has publicly committed to any state this year and the most ever in California.

With a huge Democratic voter registration advantage, no independent polling showing Fiorina in the lead in the last month and a new poll Tuesday giving Boxer a 9-point lead, the California Senate contest looks like a sucker bet for the GOP.

So why are Republicans throwing in all that money? Two big reasons: because they can and because they must.

The GOP has to win this seat in order to win control of the Senate, but there’s more to it than that.  With the exception of Harry Reid in Nevada, there isn’t another incumbent Senator that Republicans would like to retire more than Boxer.  They also are still within range of a victory in California.  As long as they’re not neglecting the winnable races in Washington and Colorado, this isn’t a sucker bet at all but an effort to force Democrats to spend money defending what they thought was a safe seat.


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It can’t be said too often – anyone who votes for Boxer (including Boxer) is a complete idiot.

NoDonkey on October 27, 2010 at 10:04 AM

“The GOP has to win this seat in order to win control of the Senate …”

Not true. The GOP can get to 51 by winning the six toss-ups currently listed at RCP Senate Race tracker.

Still, as you say, Ed, it is important that we bounce Boxer.

Dusty on October 27, 2010 at 10:13 AM

Californians seem to be more stuck-on-stupid than Delawareans. They’ll just keep voting for Democrats over and over again.

I guess they figure that they just aren’t broke enough yet.

UltimateBob on October 27, 2010 at 10:13 AM

Carly has a good chance with a good GOP turnout. The key is a huge turnout in the inland area.
Also California polling organizations are notorious for push-polling their favorite leftist (all of them). There is no such thing as a Republican momentum to them.

jjshaka on October 27, 2010 at 10:14 AM

Boxer had a 17-point lead among cell-phone only voters, but with oddly low numbers, 43/26 and 22% undecided. Given Boxer’s high profile in the state and the lateness of the hour, so to speak, those undecideds could break hard away from the incumbent in this cycle.

if you have a cell phone, that makes you more apt to vote? Probably but it seems to me that you’d be more apt to be self-absorbed and not clear on the election.

In phone-banking for Carly these past two weeks, we are coming up with a lot of people who “haven’t made their minds up yet” (and a lot who want to dump Boxer. The sentiment among the undecideds is that they’re pretty busy making ends meet and will get around to it when they can.

But, basically, I agree with NoDonkey regarding Boxer/Brown voters: brain-dead mouth breathers.

The War Planner on October 27, 2010 at 10:14 AM

Say Goodbye to Hollywood…and California. They get the government they deserve.

Good Lt on October 27, 2010 at 10:14 AM


Republican Tom Corbett leads Democrat Dan Onorato in the race for governor by 12 points, 42 percent to 30 percent with 26 percent undecided.

26% undecided??? Is this the highest undecided percentage in the country? How the hell can anybody STILL be undecided with less than a week to go? Make up your freakin’ minds, people!

Tony737 on October 27, 2010 at 10:15 AM

The GOP has to win this seat in order to win control of the Senate, but there’s more to it than that. With the exception of Harry Reid in Nevada, there isn’t another incumbent Senator that Republicans would like to retire more than Boxer. They also are still within range of a victory in California. As long as they’re not neglecting the winnable races in Washington and Colorado, this isn’t a sucker bet at all but an effort to force Democrats to spend money defending what they thought was a safe seat.

Also, they shouldn’t neglect West Virginia, another winnable race whose media markets aren’t very expensive. Five points down in California could be 300,000 votes to sway, whereas WV polls have been all over the map, and the winning margin might only be 10,000 or 20,000 votes.

If Republicans can hang on to small leads in NV, CO, and IL (a big if), it looks like Senate control will hinge on WV, WA, and CA, where whichever party wins 2 out of 3 controls the Senate.

Steve Z on October 27, 2010 at 10:15 AM

I don’t see where folks are getting 8,9,10 R takeovers in the Senate. Based on reputable polls as of today:

AK Yes, Miller by a close one.
CA Nope, sorry. This would have been so sweet.
CT Nice try, but…
DE Gone.
FL Yes. Awesome Marco
IL Kirk, barely.
NV Angle, barely above fraud level.
PA Toomsday!
WA Don’t think so.
WI Bye Bye Russ.
WV I think this one might be slipping away.

I get 7, which may slip to 6. Worst case, Kirk falls, then it’s 5.

Just trying to stay real.

Bat Chain Puller on October 27, 2010 at 10:18 AM

Californians seem to be more stuck-on-stupid than Delawareans. They’ll just keep voting for Democrats over and over again. – Bob

Yeah man, same goes for R.I. It’s amazing how group-think will permeate one city or even a whole state, regardless of mounting evidence.

Tony737 on October 27, 2010 at 10:18 AM

I wouldn’t count Carly out yet, the MSM has a deathgrip on polling here. That and the GOP which largely sat out the 2008 election, hopefully will be motivated for this one!

The Expert Knows

HAExpert on October 27, 2010 at 10:20 AM

P.S. It’s apparent that Dems are going all-out to hold the Senate. That’s where almost all of the poll movement in their direction is happening.

The House is long gone for the D’s, and they know it.

Bat Chain Puller on October 27, 2010 at 10:21 AM

How could anyone even poll California? That state has been turned on its head! People who have never voted or haven’t voted in YEARS will vote this time. DEMS may be flocking to the polls, but they could be voting GOP this time. Indies are going GOP everywhere else, why not CA?

The Hollywood lefties are even quiet! Do NOT count out Fiorina or Whitman!

Oink on October 27, 2010 at 10:22 AM

I choose to remain optimistic about CA…the Democrats I know aren’t even slightly motivated but the Republicans are…if they stay home and we show up Carly will win and maybe even Whitman who I am not as concerned about. Ahnold could never do anything with the Dem Legislature so until that changes… My congressman is nutjob Waxman and I’m praying Wilkerson pulls an upset…that would do more for us than Whitman. Also Van Tran knocking Loretta Sanchez out wold just be the cherry on top of the icing on top of the cake!

CCRWM on October 27, 2010 at 10:24 AM

I’d love to see Carly take out Boxer, but lets face it, CA is on a collision course w. bankruptcy, and it will be easier for the GOP to say NO to a federal bailout if the folks doing the asking are a Dem gov and 2 Dem Senators.

james23 on October 27, 2010 at 10:25 AM

Boxer had a 17-point lead among cell-phone only voters, but with oddly low numbers, 43/26 and 22% undecided.

How many cell-phone-only voters actually vote? Wouldn’t people who don’t have a fixed home phone tend to be either homeless or transient, and have trouble providing a fixed address when registering to vote?

The inclusion of cell phones in a public-opinion poll could skew the results. What about households which have one fixed home phone, but where husband and wife and all children (some of whom may be over 18) have their own cell-phone numbers? If there are more cell-phone numbers per capita than fixed-phone numbers per capita, how do cell-phone responses translate to VOTES? Is there any weighting factor for this?

Steve Z on October 27, 2010 at 10:25 AM

I get 7, which may slip to 6. Worst case, Kirk falls, then it’s 5.

Just trying to stay real.

Bat Chain Puller on October 27, 2010 at 10:18 AM

You need to throw in Arkansas, North Dakota, and Indiana. all currently held by Dems, but strongly looking to flip to Repubs this year.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/election_2010_senate_balance_of_power

mwdiver on October 27, 2010 at 10:29 AM

[Bat Chain Puller on October 27, 2010 at 10:18 AM]

Take a look at the RCP link I posted above. If all the TU’s go R then it’s a gain of 10 — 41 to 51. If you take out the ones in TU you say will be lost — WA and WV — that would drop it to 8. If as you note, Kirk doesn’t come through in IL, then it would be 7.

You’re missing 2 somewhere. Check your list against the R side at RCP.

Dusty on October 27, 2010 at 10:30 AM

Arkansas= +1
Colorado= +1
Illinois= +1
Indiana= +1
Kentucky= +1
Nevada= +1
N. Dakota= +1
Pennsylv= +1
W. Virginia= +1

Must pick up Washington, NY, or CA.

I’m furious at O’Donnell wasting good ad money on “I am not a witch.” Coons is a freakin communist and she couldn’t beat him???

If it’s true that undecideds usually go against the incumbants, than we might pick up WA or CA. If we get 60+ house seats, I think we’ll get 2 of the last 3.
My prediction is 72 house seats, 11 senate.

stenwin77 on October 27, 2010 at 10:30 AM

Californians seem to be more stuck-on-stupid than Delawareans. They’ll just keep voting for Democrats over and over again.

I guess they figure that they just aren’t broke enough yet.

UltimateBob on October 27, 2010 at 10:13 AM

Like so many out there *cough, cough, unions, cough* I think most liberal Californians don’t care. They vote liberal, because they like the entitlements. They see no problem with the other 49, or is it 56 states coming to their rescue and bailing them out. After all, isn’t that how cap and trade is written? All the middle states bail out the coastal states, because their liberal agendas have totally f’d their states.

capejasmine on October 27, 2010 at 10:31 AM

I think there are too many polls and I’ve learned not to trust them, as they seem to be being used by the MSM and the dems to manipulate the electorate.I will wait and see the votes counted. I know I’ve already voted a straight Republican ticket.

Hera on October 27, 2010 at 10:31 AM

With the exception of Harry Reid in Nevada, there isn’t another incumbent Senator that Republicans would like to retire more than Boxer.

I vehemently object, but mostly because I have a vested interest in retiring Russ Feingold.

steveegg on October 27, 2010 at 10:32 AM

Oh, and why hasn’t DioGuardi (NY) done more to tie Gillibrand to Fannie Mae? I think he also could have beaten her – she’s a criminal. He would make a great senator.

stenwin77 on October 27, 2010 at 10:32 AM

Steve Z on October 27, 2010 at 10:25 AM

In California? He!!. I’d bet money they literally drive illegals from poll to poll to vote. They don’t seem to care if a voter is registered, or even if they’re a legal citizen.

capejasmine on October 27, 2010 at 10:33 AM

Philadelphia has been the anchor for PA for the last decade. Massive turnout in the area of 90% always seems to occur in many districts. Either they bus them in or they fake the votes, who knows. No one in authority seems to care. Philly will have a lot to say about what happens in PA.

tflst5 on October 27, 2010 at 10:35 AM

Bat Chain Puller on October 27, 2010 at 10:18 AM

By the way, Florida would not be a “flip” from D to R as the current Orange Gov. (Charlie Crist) is a Repub for Gov. purposes only.

stenwin77 on October 27, 2010 at 10:36 AM

Boxer is still stuck at about 45% in every poll. I just don’t think that is good enough for a 28-year incumbent. Those are the same sort of numbers that Arlen Specter was getting before Joe Sestak beat him in the primary.

I’m glad the NRSC is putting more money in there. I still think this seat is winnable. Boxer has never had a female opponent and she has clearly flundered in this campaign since she was unable to play the gender card. Fiorina has run a good race and deserves to win! I think Democrats fear her more than any other Republican running this year, which is why they are going all-out to defeat her.

rockmom on October 27, 2010 at 10:36 AM

Say Goodbye to Hollywood…and California. They get the government they deserve.

[Good Lt on October 27, 2010 at 10:14 AM]

I agree, which is why it is essential to get back to a Republican form of government where each state sinks or swims based on their own choices and actions. No more passing the problems and costs of any one state’s continued stupidity on to everyone else in the country.

Dusty on October 27, 2010 at 10:36 AM

Dusty on October 27, 2010 at 10:30 AM

stenwin77 on October 27, 2010 at 10:30 AM

Kentucky is currently R, so that is not a flip. According to Rassmussen, we could end up with 52, if we get all the Toss-ups.

Strong GOP
Arkansas +1
Indiana +1
North Dakota +1

Lean GOP
West Virginia +1
wisconsin +1

Toss Up
California +1
Colorado +1
Illiois +1
Nevada +1
Pennsylvania +1
Washingtong +1

Currently GOP = 41
GOP picks up all would be a gain of 11 to 52 GOP
Assuming GOP picks up all of the ones in the Strong GOP and Leans GOP, we need 5 of 6 Toss Ups to have 51 seats.

mwdiver on October 27, 2010 at 10:38 AM

AK Yes, Miller by a close one.
CA Nope, sorry. This would have been so sweet.
CT Nice try, but…
DE Gone.
FL Yes. Awesome Marco
IL Kirk, barely.
NV Angle, barely above fraud level.
PA Toomsday!
WA Don’t think so.
WI Bye Bye Russ.
WV I think this one might be slipping away.

I get 7, which may slip to 6. Worst case, Kirk falls, then it’s 5.

Just trying to stay real.

Bat Chain Puller on October 27, 2010 at 10:18 AM

AK – hold
CA – ?
FL – hold
IL – 1
NV – 1
PA – 1
WA – ?
WI – 1
AR – 1
ND – 1
IN – 1
WV – 1

I see 8 pickups and two possibles.

Vashta.Nerada on October 27, 2010 at 10:38 AM

Thank you, Ed. You can never stress too much the title that U.S. Senator Democrat Barbra Boxer has worked so hard to earn.

Troy Rasmussen on October 27, 2010 at 10:38 AM

By the way, Florida would not be a “flip” from D to R as the current Orange Gov. (Charlie Crist) is a Repub for Gov. purposes only.

stenwin77 on October 27, 2010 at 10:36 AM

You are right that FL wouldn’t be a R pick-up, but Crist isn’t the Senator. He is the current governor. The seat is currently held by a R that Crist appointed to fill out Mel Martinez term.

mwdiver on October 27, 2010 at 10:40 AM

I see 8 pickups and two possibles.

Vashta.Nerada on October 27, 2010 at 10:38 AM

Forgot CO, so it is 8 pickups and 3 possibles.

Vashta.Nerada on October 27, 2010 at 10:41 AM

don’t see where folks are getting 8,9,10 R takeovers in the Senate. Based on reputable polls as of today:

AK Yes, Miller by a close one.
CA Nope, sorry. This would have been so sweet.
CT Nice try, but…
DE Gone.
FL Yes. Awesome Marco
IL Kirk, barely.
NV Angle, barely above fraud level.
PA Toomsday!
WA Don’t think so.
WI Bye Bye Russ.
WV I think this one might be slipping away.

I get 7, which may slip to 6. Worst case, Kirk falls, then it’s 5.

Just trying to stay real.

Bat Chain Puller on October 27, 2010 at 10:18 AM

You seem to be forgetting two open-seat races where retiring Democrats will be replaced by Republican blowouts in ND and IN, and AR where Boozman (R) is clobbering Blanche Lincoln (D). Add in your predicted pickups in IL, NV, PA, and WI, and that makes 7, and let’s not forget CO, where Buck(R) has a slight lead over Bennet(D).

Admittedly, NV, IL, and CO are all close, and could go either way, but winning them would give the GOP 8 pickups. Republicans are slightly behind but within striking range in WV, WA, and CA, so if they could pull off 2 upsets out of 3, they could take the Senate. Out of those three, WV is the most winnable and has the lowest population, meaning the fewest votes that may need to be swayed.

Steve Z on October 27, 2010 at 10:41 AM

[mwdiver on October 27, 2010 at 10:38 AM]

Agreed. Looking at it briefly, the one difference between your list (Rasmussen) and mine (RCP) is that mine has CA in lean Dem. and is out of the picture in my estimate. IOW’s If R’s win all the TU’s in RCP, then it’s +10 for R’s. A CA pick up would make it 52, same as yours.

Dusty on October 27, 2010 at 10:45 AM

Stand corrected on Kentucky, it is currently R.

Stand corrected on current Sen. in Fl – was Mel Martinez’s… I should (and do) know that as I am a FL citizen.

stenwin77 on October 27, 2010 at 10:46 AM

You seem to be forgetting two open-seat races where retiring Democrats will be replaced by Republican blowouts in ND and IN, and AR where Boozman (R) is clobbering Blanche Lincoln (D). Add in your predicted pickups in IL, NV, PA, and WI, and that makes 7, and let’s not forget CO, where Buck(R) has a slight lead over Bennet(D).

You’re absolutely right. I’ve been so focused on CA and WV
that these races slipped my mind.

OK, Senate Tied or R+1, here we come!!!

Bat Chain Puller on October 27, 2010 at 10:47 AM

What is up with Connecticut people?

Blumenthal, really? Really?

stenwin77 on October 27, 2010 at 10:47 AM

Dusty on October 27, 2010 at 10:45 AM

Agreed. Thanks for pointing that out.

mwdiver on October 27, 2010 at 10:48 AM

CCRWM on October 27, 2010 at 10:24 AM

We must be neighbors. Waxman is my congressman too.

Here’s hoping Team Carly can pull off the win.

I think a good amount of that 26% of undecideds might actually be leaning towards Carly but just not want to say it out loud. There’s a lot of pressure in California to be Democrat or be silent.

JadeNYU on October 27, 2010 at 10:52 AM

What is up with Connecticut people?

Blumenthal, really? Really?

stenwin77 on October 27, 2010 at 10:47 AM

NY refugees immigrants who brought their politics with them.

Dusty on October 27, 2010 at 10:59 AM

There’s a lot of pressure in California to be Democrat or be silent.

JadeNYU on October 27, 2010 at 10:52 AM

Hope the reality is like the internal tracking of early voting in Connecticut that shows Democrats voting Republican down the line.

John the Libertarian on October 27, 2010 at 11:06 AM

Whoops. Meant Delaware. Found on Hill Buzz. Need more coffee.

John the Libertarian on October 27, 2010 at 11:06 AM

CA is a very tough state. The biggest issue, as I’ve said, was that the state got fired up and voted in Arnold, who completely was unable to work with the Dem legislators. Gridlock ensued.

I think voters are discouraged by that approach. Add to that Whitman’s overspending and, I think some of the pundits are right about this one….spending her own money, and she’s pulled the state left in voting.

It’s hurting Carly.

AnninCA on October 27, 2010 at 11:08 AM

There’s a lot of pressure in California to be Democrat or be silent.

JadeNYU on October 27, 2010 at 10:52 AM

Well, the problem is downticket. The GOP is really wierd in that state. I presume it’s the result of being the minority for too long, but they aren’t exactly sensible.

They really are obstructionist. Then, the Dems are living in, as Palin says, unicorn land. They are ridiculous.

Voters are sort of caught in the middle.

AnninCA on October 27, 2010 at 11:10 AM

What is up with Connecticut people?

Blumenthal, really? Really?

stenwin77 on October 27, 2010 at 10:47 AM

Ann Coulter has a good column on that. That was my question, too. I guess wrestling was too much for the CT bluebloods. :)

I really like Linda, but I did see some odd articles about some of her fundraisers. It was pretty much country club stuff.

But when I hear her speak versus Blumenthal? No contest, to me.

I’d vote for her in a heartbeat.

AnninCA on October 27, 2010 at 11:12 AM

rockmom on October 27, 2010 at 10:36 AM

I agree. It’s worth the fight. And Carly put some of her own money in, too. 5 more days.

We’ll see. But I still think Barbara if vulnerable to a wave loss.

AnninCA on October 27, 2010 at 11:15 AM

I agree, which is why it is essential to get back to a Republican form of government where each state sinks or swims based on their own choices and actions. No more passing the problems and costs of any one state’s continued stupidity on to everyone else in the country.

Dusty on October 27, 2010 at 10:36 AM

I think the solution is to undo some of the Federal programs which are passing on the costs to states. That’s the unfair part.

AnninCA on October 27, 2010 at 11:16 AM

Oh, and why hasn’t DioGuardi (NY) done more to tie Gillibrand to Fannie Mae? I think he also could have beaten her – she’s a criminal. He would make a great senator.

stenwin77 on October 27, 2010 at 10:32 AM

She was a conservative from upstate. I don’t even see her reelection as a loss.

Watch her vote with the GOP on some key issues in the future. I am sure she gets the message.

AnninCA on October 27, 2010 at 11:18 AM

Steve Z on October 27, 2010 at 10:25 AM
In California? He!!. I’d bet money they literally drive illegals from poll to poll to vote. They don’t seem to care if a voter is registered, or even if they’re a legal citizen.

capejasmine on October 27, 2010 at 10:33 AM

I’ve never understood this fear. You have to be on the voter registration list to vote. If you’re not, you get a conditional ballot, subject to verification.

That’s actually a pretty good system.

AnninCA on October 27, 2010 at 11:20 AM

Regarding Richard Burr, that’s really no surprise. Other than in Dem party hacks heads, there was never really any doubt that he would beat Marshall handily. Heck, I live in Raleigh, and you rarely see a Marshall ad, either on TV or one of those roadside thingies. The most I hear about Marshall is when she advertises on 106.1 Rush Radio. That’s right, she is spending money for radio ads on a station that features Beck, Rush, and Hannity, among others.

When I went to vote Saturday, there were no Brad Miller or Elaine Marshall peeps or lawn signs. No one I saw representing them. Burr and Bill Randall signs were everywhere.

William Teach on October 27, 2010 at 11:22 AM

Count me optimistic on both CA races. Turnout will drive everything, and I think there will be a wave of emotion against what Obama and the Crats have done to this nation.

paul1149 on October 27, 2010 at 11:24 AM

26% undecided??? Is this the highest undecided percentage in the country? How the hell can anybody STILL be undecided with less than a week to go? Make up your freakin’ minds, people!

Tony737 on October 27, 2010 at 10:15 AM

Hey, I’m still undecided on wither to vote yes or no on proposition 19. I really want to vote yes hoping all the brain dead liberals will be too stoned to bother to vote in future elections, but will a yes vote increase the number of liberals in this state? All the other propositions and candidates were easy to choose.

PrettyD_Vicious on October 27, 2010 at 11:24 AM

…WV I think this one might be slipping away…

Just trying to stay real.

Bat Chain Puller on October 27, 2010 at 10:18 AM

Here’s what my biggest of many lib friends from WV posted on FB:

“When you choose the lesser of two evils, always remember that it is still an evil.”
– Max Lerner

All the rest knew what he was talking about and are chiming in with plenty of cussing about their choice in the Senate race.

I think base turnout might just suffer a little due to Manchin’s desperate lurch right. I’m very hopeful about that one.

forest on October 27, 2010 at 11:35 AM

Retirement party for Reid and Boxer at my house Nov. 2nd.

BYOB

.

GT on October 27, 2010 at 11:42 AM

Count me optimistic on both CA races. Turnout will drive everything, and I think there will be a wave of emotion against what Obama and the Crats have done to this nation.

paul1149 on October 27, 2010 at 11:24 AM

Dittos. The only people I know who will admit they support Brown or Boxer are union types.

The polling is definitely inconclusive and never accurately counts Republican voters. Prop. 19 is the wild card as the polling shows Brown gained ground while marijuana legalization lost ground, which is counterintuitive.

Terrie on October 27, 2010 at 11:49 AM

California is lagging behind in turning out the ‘Gimme More’ Democrats because we Californians are a bunch of idiots. More and more of the smart, productive and enterprising people are leaving the state; lowering the collective IQ.

Those remaining are state and local government workers, the uneducated (and this includes the Teachers), and an influx of new people who could not get a job in Mexico. The state is circling the drain and eventual ‘bankruptcy’ is the inevitable result.

To paraphrase Senator Boxer, “I worked so hard to be able to live here in California”. But I may not be able to afford it for much longer.

Uniblogger on October 27, 2010 at 11:50 AM

AnninCA on October 27, 2010

7 posts in a row???
shut up

mnmom on October 27, 2010 at 11:52 AM

7 posts in a row???
shut up

mnmom on October 27, 2010 at 11:52 AM

Is there a limit? Why would you discourage free speech and Hot Air traffic?

Terrie on October 27, 2010 at 11:58 AM

Even responsibly executed polls in California are not going to be accurate. This is the state where the liberals found out names and addresses of those opposed to far-left liberal ballot initiatives, and send thugs to harrass those people.

How do they now know that a phone poll is really a poll and not the lefties trying to put together a hit-list?

slickwillie2001 on October 27, 2010 at 11:59 AM

Is there a limit? Why would you discourage free speech and Hot Air traffic?

Terrie on October 27, 2010 at 11:58 AM

Sorry but I am not discouraging anyone…
If you want to read her ‘free speech’–go ahead

mnmom on October 27, 2010 at 12:10 PM

William Teach:

“Regarding Richard Burr, that’s really no surprise.”

I’m in North Carolina too, and Burr’s lead seems overstated to me. I flat out don’t believe that he was ever up 24 points. I’m expecting him to win, but Republicans were actually expressing concern about his margins a few months ago.

On the upside, It took a really big push for Obama to turn over NC, in what was something of a stealth campaign. He and Michelle were switching off — at one point on an almost weekly basis — even though his campaign HQ said he was pulling resources out of the state. With nobody to keep the pressure on, I’m sure Democrats will have a turnout problem among African Americans, but 22% seems like an awfully big enthusiasm gap. I do think the 45/45 split in Raleigh is more significant than it might look, because the Obama vote in ’08 was overwhelmingly concentrated in urban/suburban areas.

JM Hanes on October 27, 2010 at 1:09 PM

Bat Chain Puller on October 27, 2010 at 10:18 AM

I voted against Alexi-not for Kirk.
I know a lot of conservatives doing the same.
Kirk will win it.

annoyinglittletwerp on October 27, 2010 at 1:11 PM

Do NOT believe ANY California poll!!!

They are all WRONG at this point!

As for the people that think Boxer can just ‘bus in the illegal vote’, this is simply NOT possible!

Boxer’s ‘shut off the water’ policy has created an unemployment bubble of 40%+ for them! If Boxer busses them in, they will vote AGAINST her!

Freddy on October 27, 2010 at 1:40 PM

The War Planner:

Where do phone banks (and polsters) get cell phone numbers you call? I know political parties are not subject to the same restrictions on cold calling that apply to commercial solicitations, but I thought that access to cell phone numbers was severely limited by the lack of public directories. My own kids have moved around, so their area codes don’t have anything to do with where they actually live anymore, so I’m also wondering if you run into (or inquire about) that much?

How the numbers are obtained seems like it could make a big difference in the polling. I know the Obama campaign was collecting them in every possible venue. Remember all the folks they signed up for early warning text messages on Obama’s VP pick? The ones they almost forgot to contact with the news? They put up — and summarily abandoned — new web pages left and right (Fight the Smears!), where you were inevitably greeted with a form inviting you to share your info. They were still trying to rake in email addresses when they started setting up the new White House websites! They would send you to a pseudo registration window, before passing you along to the page you were trying to see. You didn’t really have to fill in the blanks, but it they made it look like access was restricted to the folks who did.

JM Hanes on October 27, 2010 at 1:47 PM

Is there a limit? Why would you discourage free speech and Hot Air traffic?

Terrie

She’s discouraging stupid speech, which is what Ann specializes in.

xblade on October 27, 2010 at 1:49 PM

I think some of the pundits are right about this one….spending her own money, and she’s pulled the state left in voting.

It’s hurting Carly.

AnninCA

Ahh, yes, silly silly Carly, spending her own money and all. Doesn’t she know that good politicians, especially California politicians, only spend other people’s money?

The GOP is really wierd in that state. I presume it’s the result of being the minority for too long, but they aren’t exactly sensible.

They really are obstructionist. Then, the Dems are living in, as Palin says, unicorn land. They are ridiculous.

Voters are sort of caught in the middle.

AnninCA

If democrats insist on passing unicorn-land inspired legislation, doesn’t it make sense to be obstructionist? No, of course not, the sensible thing to do would be to go along with it, lol.

California voters aren’t caught in the middle, they are, without a doubt, stuck on stupid.

xblade on October 27, 2010 at 1:57 PM

I live in Mary Bono’s district of Southern California. I also watch sports on TV, even though I’m a chick, and DON’T watch the local News. Anyway, based on what I’m seeing in the Ads Carly has a nice, calm, rational personality. Here’s the problem: The Ads SHE is putting out have her basically saying, ‘I will vote AGAINST my Party if –I– don’t AGREE with THEM’. That’s NOT the way to pump up the people who WILL vote for her. THEN… You have Boxer putting up ATTACK Ads saying, ‘Carly sold California jobs to India’. With 10%+ on the books unemployment AND 20%+, most likely, total unemployment that does immeasurable damage. Then the NRSC ACTUALLY put out some decent ATTACK Ads FOR Fiorina. But it doesn’t make up for the stupid, I’m a RINO Republican Moderate not an Extremist Conservative Republican Ads she’s doing herself. When you watch hers then right after you watch Boxer’s, she looks weak and like she’s not up to the task. Top that off with hospitalization and she’s doing herself in all on her own.

I LOVE how EVERYONE says ONLY a RINO can win in California in THIS environment. Boy, I miss DeVore….

Sultry Beauty on October 27, 2010 at 2:03 PM

I have to laugh at ads that accuse Carly Fiorina of laying off people at HP, and ‘moving jobs out of the USA’. That’s exactly what we need in our federal government, -LAYOFFS.

We need to do to our federal government exactly what corporate turnaround specialists do to help out companies in danger of bankruptcy. We need to layoff 10-20% of federal employees, and cut their salaries and benefits and pensions by 20% or so.

If we are able to find any government work that can be moved offshore to a cheap provider, I am all for that too. Every dollar paid to a government worker is another anchor around the neck of Americans that work for a living producing something worthwhile.

slickwillie2001 on October 27, 2010 at 2:13 PM

Sultry Beauty on October 27, 2010 at 2:03 PM

Well said, as always.

mwdiver on October 27, 2010 at 2:14 PM

Hope the reality is like the internal tracking of early voting in Connecticut Delaware that shows Democrats voting Republican down the line.

John the Libertarian on October 27, 2010 at 11:06 AM

Are you serious?

hawkdriver on October 27, 2010 at 7:41 PM