Dem losing by 10 in California’s Central Valley

posted at 11:18 am on October 26, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Jim Costa looks as though he’s about to lose his previously-safe Democratic seat in the House because of the fish that devoured the Central Valley.  The feds turned off the irrigation spigot in one of the nation’s most productive agricultural areas to protect the Delta smelt, creating a modern Dust Bowl and destroying the livelihood of tens of thousands of Californians in the process.  Now Costa, defending a D+5 district that has been Democratic since the 1992 election, finds himself ten points down to his Republican challenger in the latest Survey USA poll:

In an election for US Representative from California’s 20th Congressional District today, 10/25/10, Republican challenger Andy Vidak is atop incumbent Democrat Jim Costa, 52% to 42%, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted in English and in Spanish for KFSN-TV Fresno.

Costa has experienced across-the-board erosion since SurveyUSA’s last poll 6 weeks ago: Among women, Costa had led by 14, now leads by 2. Among votersage 50+, Costa had led by 3, now trails by 14. Among voters without a college degree, Cost had led by 6, now trails by 11.

Whites vote Republican. Hispanics vote Democrat. If Hispanic turnout is higher than the 36% shown here, Costa performs better, but still trails. For example, if Hispanic turnout is modeled at 40%, Vidak today would lead by 7 points. If Hispanic turnout is modeled at 30%, Vidak would lead by 12 points.

Costa did attempt to head off the decision to cut water supplied to the Central Valley in 2007, sending a letter to the US Bureau of Reclamation for some kind of mitigation to the judicial decision to turn off the pumps.  However, Costa apparently hasn’t done much else — and more to the point, neither has the Democratic majorities in the House and Senate.  No significant action has been taken to restore the needed irrigation for Central Valley farmers and the American agricultural industry that relied on those lands for jobs and economic prosperity.

Under those circumstances, it’s hardly surprising that Costa will pay the price for inaction.  Vidak wins independents in the district by a wide margin, 57/32, and manages to win 20% of Democrats, too.  While he trails among the Hispanics that comprise 63% of the population in the district, he doesn’t trail all that badly for a Republican candidate (36/57), certainly not by the wide margins Democrats have enjoyed over the last several cycles.  Most problematic for Costa, Vidak leads by five among those who have already voted — and by fourteen among those who haven’t.


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Delta….it stands for “change”….

how appropriate during this cycle.

ted c on October 26, 2010 at 11:20 AM

D+5 district and the D is -10.

there.are.no.safe.seats….

the hammer cometh….

ted c on October 26, 2010 at 11:21 AM

PUNS AAGGGHHHH!!!

Bill C on October 26, 2010 at 11:25 AM

D+5 district and the D is -10.

there.are.no.safe.seats….

the hammer cometh….

ted c on October 26, 2010 at 11:21 AM

I’ll temper your enthusiasm on this one… the Central Valley is ground zero in Dems screwing over taxpayers to benefit an ecologically insignificant minnow. I’m surprised that they aren’t behind by MORE than 10 since Senator B!tch was specifically involved in blocking the more sane, or at least politically savvy, Feinstein’s efforts to get water back to that area.

teke184 on October 26, 2010 at 11:25 AM

I thought Zero bought his vote for Ocare by promising to turn the water back on. Must have been a gotcha head fake.

Kissmygrits on October 26, 2010 at 11:25 AM

Tea-Nam is around the corner,at Delta-Dang!

A Smelt perpetual Ambush has gotten done
momentumized!!(sarc).

canopfor on October 26, 2010 at 11:27 AM

This policy to save the fish is destroying large pecan orchards and putting lots of people out of work. Australia and other countries are starting to increase their pecan groves knowing that Central California is losing theirs.

Every policy decision has trade-offs. This one, destroying Central California agriculture to save a fish just doesn’t pass the common sense test. Hurray for the Federal Gov’t!

markytom on October 26, 2010 at 11:29 AM

I had forgotten about that cental valey mess.
That may change the election in a big way.
I sure hope it does.

ColdWarrior57 on October 26, 2010 at 11:30 AM

I really wonder what happened to Hope and Change.

Oh, it did happen.

Americans are hoping again and are starting for a REAL CHANGE.
But not the way Obambi wanted to be.

CONSERVATIVES ARE SWEEPING THE LAND!

Good day for the Fatherland!

TheAlamos on October 26, 2010 at 11:30 AM

To be fair, ted c, this has a very specific and egregious example of nanny statism that is directly impacting the constituents of the district.

As that goes, I think it’s a fair harbinger of the 2012 elections and beyond, rather than for this election.

Scott H on October 26, 2010 at 11:31 AM

I’ll temper your enthusiasm on this one… the Central Valley is ground zero in Dems screwing over taxpayers to benefit an ecologically insignificant minnow. I’m surprised that they aren’t behind by MORE than 10 since Senator B!tch was specifically involved in blocking the more sane, or at least politically savvy, Feinstein’s efforts to get water back to that area.

teke184 on October 26, 2010 at 11:25 AM

Fiorina should be hammering Boxer on the irrigation issue, which affects a large part of the state, not just Costa’s district. She’ll need lots of Central Valley votes to balance out the Pelosicrats and delta smelt huggers from Frisco.

Steve Z on October 26, 2010 at 11:31 AM

the hammer cometh….

ted c on October 26, 2010 at 11:21 AM

ted c:The Political Hammer of Death!!

Just gave me another business venture,along with the
ACME ROPE COMPANY,in Political Hang’n ropes,ACME is
soon to release its second Mid-Term Campaign,the Poli
tacal Hammer of Death,in which,Liberals and Progressi
ves,can hammer it out,as who is to fault,after the eve
of November 2!!(snark).

canopfor on October 26, 2010 at 11:32 AM

HA! Ed…love the ‘smelt it…’ quote!!

katy on October 26, 2010 at 11:32 AM

I thought Zero bought his vote for Ocare by promising to turn the water back on. Must have been a gotcha head fake.

Kissmygrits on October 26, 2010 at 11:25 AM

followed by a pivot.??

ted c on October 26, 2010 at 11:33 AM

Like so many other feel-good Liberal issues divorced from reality, the crowd that advocated and supported the Delta Smelt water crisis have already forgotten about it. The people that were on the receiving end — anyone trying to make a living in the Central Valley — will never forget. Talk to the families that had to plough under their fields or cut down their orchards for lack of irrigation; their anger is deep and bitter. What would you expect?

Kenosha Kid on October 26, 2010 at 11:34 AM

Ok, that tag line….too funny. :)

cmsinaz on October 26, 2010 at 11:34 AM

CONSERVATIVES ARE SWEEPING THE LAND!

Good day for the Fatherland!

TheAlamos on October 26, 2010 at 11:30 AM

TheAlamos: And the Women of the RIGHT,are a Leading the
Charge!!
===========================================================

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_rOd6gCbW9QM/TJYrEPpd7SI/AAAAAAAAGUc/k5b7f_b16mI/s1600/chickamauga.jpg

canopfor on October 26, 2010 at 11:34 AM

Boxer and Feinstein are just as responsible for not getting the water turned back on. With their power and seniority in a Democrat Congress they couldn’t do anything? I beleive they didn’t want to do anything so that the farmers will lose the land and they can “plant” windmill farms. I’ve only seen one commercial about this re Boxer and it didn’t run for long.

CCRWM on October 26, 2010 at 11:35 AM

Allah,

Thanks for directing attention to this. I live in this man-made Dust Bowl, and it really is depressing to see all this farmland become a dry wasteland. Thankfully, I don’t live in Costa’s district–although I would love to vote against him. I’m grateful to live in Devon Nunes’ district–a strong conservative for our Central Valley!

mauipundit on October 26, 2010 at 11:35 AM

It pains me every time I drive through the Central Valley on the way north; that is some of the richest farmland in the world, and the Democrats and their Green Statist allies are killing it for a bait fish.

If the election were just in the valley, Fiorina and Whitman would win in a walk. Sadly, metro LA and the SF Bay Area still get to vote.

irishspy on October 26, 2010 at 11:36 AM

This policy to save the fish is destroying large pecan orchards and putting lots of people out of work….
markytom on October 26, 2010 at 11:29 AM

Indeed – many of the farms being destroyed are orchards. These are not easy or quick to recover. If the trees are dead it will take a generation or more to bring them close to their past productivity. Even if the water is turned back on, no one will make that investment if they think that the next political wind will blow dry again.

DamnCat on October 26, 2010 at 11:37 AM

followed by a pivot.??

ted c on October 26, 2010 at 11:33 AM

ted c:)
==========================================================
BELTWAY ADVENTURE
WELCOME TO ADVENTURE! WOULD YOU LIKE INSTRUCTIONS?

>PLAY GOLF

GOLF COURSE IS CLOSED.

>TURN LEFT

DUDE.

>FAKE TURN RIGHT

ADVENTURER PLEASE, YOU’RE JUST EMBARRASING YOURSELF.

>^C

>^C

>^C

I’M SORRY, THERE IS NO ESCAPE KEY. WHAT DO YOU WANT TO DO?

>

WHAT DO YOU WANT TO DO?

>

WHAT DO YOU WANT TO DO?

http://iowahawk.typepad.com/

canopfor on October 26, 2010 at 11:38 AM

If you have the chance, you should drive through the Central Valley. We did it this summer with our grandkids, who were stunned. It literally is a dustbowl, with thousands of dead trees for all to see, and thousands of acres of dust where there used to be green crops. It is a visible lesson of what our government is doing to the American people.

GaltBlvnAtty on October 26, 2010 at 11:40 AM

So,all these little Liberal Projects that were so brilliant
years ago,when an election was as faaaar away as an enternit
y now comes around,er,rears its big political ugly head,has
cometh to biteist and devourist herr Democrats!!

SWEET!!!!

canopfor on October 26, 2010 at 11:41 AM

Even a GOP takeover won’t cure this problem though, the ecofreaks will tie up any attempt to open irrigation with endless lawsuits. Cali is being flushed into the crapper, the only question is how long it will swirl before disappearing.

Bishop on October 26, 2010 at 11:43 AM

Costa did attempt to head off the decision to cut water supplied to the Central Valley in 2007, sending a letter to the US Bureau of Reclamation for some kind of mitigation to the judicial decision to turn off the pumps.

A strongly worded letter, no doubt. The best he could muster.

bloviator on October 26, 2010 at 11:43 AM

They are also taxing people to death for ozone. It’s ridiculous. The enviro-whackos don’t want anyone to drive except themselves.

Blake on October 26, 2010 at 11:45 AM

WE ARE, INDEED, SHEEPLE!

If schwartzenfake had a pair, he’d have sent the National Guard to turn the spigot on and guard it.

If this overreach by the feds isn’t cause for an armed revolt, nothing is.

WE ARE DOOMED.

FOWG1 on October 26, 2010 at 11:45 AM

Happy to see there will be penalties to pay for this unbelieveable cruelty against humans !!
Basically, on this subject, I’ve wept for all the victims of this nonsense.
Can someone tell me ?
SHOULD the water be turned back on, what are the chances of the former glory actually returning ? How long would that take ?
sigh

pambi on October 26, 2010 at 11:47 AM

Hey you know the old saying on how a fish stinks at the head?

This one is definetely got the Obama Aroma all over it!

pilamaye on October 26, 2010 at 11:48 AM

Boxer and Feinstein are just as responsible for not getting the water turned back on.

Let us not forget Der Arnold and the CA Legislature and their false promises. Please have a look at the Water For Fighting PAC’s Manifesto:

http://waterforfightingpac.wordpress.com/

jfshaughnessy on October 26, 2010 at 11:49 AM

Democrats have destroyed our economy and they will STILL win a lot of races this fall.

It can’t be said too often – anyone who votes for a Democrat this election is either a complete idiot or pure evil.

NoDonkey on October 26, 2010 at 11:50 AM

We need Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman to win this November.

Please contribute at least one hour a day every day in making calls for these candidates.

Conservative Samizdat on October 26, 2010 at 11:51 AM

The dems saw this policy working so well in Darfur, they sought to emulate it.

Vashta.Nerada on October 26, 2010 at 11:54 AM

Delta Dawn
What’s that flower
You have on
Could it be a faded rose
From days gone by…

Lanceman on October 26, 2010 at 11:54 AM

Aquafornia Exclusive: Why the Delta matters to every Californian
==============

http://aquafornia.com/archives/588

canopfor on October 26, 2010 at 11:55 AM

It can’t be said too often – anyone who votes for a Democrat this election is either a complete idiot or pure evil.

NoDonkey on October 26, 2010 at 11:50 AM

Yup. It just boggles the mind, that people welcome this kind of crap. I imagine though, that if any of this affected them personally, they’d change their tune in a heart beat.

capejasmine on October 26, 2010 at 12:02 PM

“He who would pun, would pick a pocket”

Nicely done sir!

jnelchef on October 26, 2010 at 12:05 PM

Drought in California’s Central Valley

By the end of July 2009, California was well into its third dry year in a row. On average, the state’s reservoirs were running low

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=39810

canopfor on October 26, 2010 at 12:07 PM

Latinos are Republican. They just don’t know it yet. Ronald Reagan

Speakup on October 26, 2010 at 12:12 PM

Whites vote Republican. Hispanics vote Democrat.

Even unemployed Hispanics who work as farm hands in the Central Valley and now have to stand in food lines at soup kitchens instead of growing food? That would be sad if true.

Buy Danish on October 26, 2010 at 12:12 PM

Lanceman on October 26, 2010 at 11:54 AM

Good tune..:)

Dire Straits on October 26, 2010 at 12:13 PM

The Feds today announced a $900 Million dollar transportation project in the Central Valley.
The timing is pure coincidence :-|

motionview on October 26, 2010 at 12:14 PM

Ah yes … Central Valley. Kill it so we buy produce from elsewhere. Mexico perhaps? Why yes … I think you’re right.

Nothing like redistribution under the guise of enviromental naziism.

darwin on October 26, 2010 at 12:18 PM

The Feds today announced a $900 Million dollar transportation project in the Central Valley.
The timing is pure coincidence :-|
motionview on October 26, 2010 at 12:14 PM

$1 Billion fast rail to bring food from China to the starving farm hands, and ecotourists to admire the Delta Smelt?

Buy Danish on October 26, 2010 at 12:21 PM

George Soros Why I support legalizing Marijuana

George Soros telegraphing his moves way in advance:)

California has a propostion to legalize Marijuana.

The President of Mexico comes out against it – states it’s going to hurt Mexico’s war on the drug cartels in Mexico.

Yeah right, more like undercut their profit.

Eric Holder AG for the Obama administration, we will enforce the law against Marijuana use in California even if the proposition passes…

What’s going on?

Significant districts in California are tipping Republican…..George Soros proxy for Obama, you know what: I am all for legalizing Marijuana…You’re being played California like a Fiddle.

Obama can’t serve two masters, he either does what The President of Mexico wants or what George Soros’s wants. He isn’t concerned in the least what the Citizens of this Country want.

Am I the only one who notices just how desperate Soros is getting the closer we get to November 2nd? How can he sack our currency, if his bought and paid for politicians aren’t in place holding the U.S. down for him?

Free Obama from his foreign Masters, vote REPUBLICAN.

Dr Evil on October 26, 2010 at 12:22 PM

Delta….it stands for “change”….

how appropriate during this cycle.

I think I’ll go to the polls with my slurpee and a t-shirt with a Δ on it. :)

Bob's Kid on October 26, 2010 at 12:23 PM

Drought in California’s Central Valley

By the end of July 2009, California was well into its third dry year in a row. On average, the state’s reservoirs were running low

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=39810

canopfor on October 26, 2010 at 12:07 PM

From this study, you’d think this was the first time that there had been three years of drought and a time where the reservoirs actually held less than capacity. In the history of CA, this is pretty much a blip in the larger picture, This article from Congressman Devin Nunes (you might know him as a remember participant with Kudlow on the John Batchelor Show)is informative about how drought is defined by the left–depending on the political needs at their time.

http://nunes.house.gov/_files/DistortedWater_highquality00.pdf

jfshaughnessy on October 26, 2010 at 12:41 PM

This is excellent news!!! The travesty of the Delta smelt water war needs front and center exposure and a major SMACK DOWN to the congress critters who voted for fish over farmers. It’s disgusting to have to check all produce to make sure it’s not from Mexico or China when we live in the middle of the bread basket of the world.

NTWR on October 26, 2010 at 1:03 PM

It looks like Costa is drowning.

docflash on October 26, 2010 at 1:05 PM

Yeah, this one’s a unique case, the Democrats chose to destroy the Central Valley.

You’ll see some (not enough, but some) Hispanic leakage on this as well, the Hispanics in the Central Valley who’ve moved up into the middle class as contractors and business owners are very substantially dependent on the health of the ag industry, and the Dems have made it very clear whose side they’re on.

JEM on October 26, 2010 at 1:09 PM

One hopes that the CA CD20 turns against Costa, but the damage in the valley may already have been done. Smaller farms have sustained so much fiscal damage that they are either ripe for being acquired by larger Agri-corporate firms, or the land is priced low enough that real estate speculators will buy it up now and spend five years getting it re-zoned from Ag to housing or commercial. Just in time for an economic rebound. A good deal of former farm land here in the Sacramento Area underwent just such a transformation in the early 90s. I wonder if Senator Boxer has any friends like that?

juanito on October 26, 2010 at 1:55 PM

His judgment cometh and that Right Soon…

yubley on October 26, 2010 at 2:04 PM

You’d think the Hispanics who depend on ag business for their livelihoods would not be happy with the water turned off and rebel against the Dems…

Dandapani on October 26, 2010 at 2:30 PM

Delta smelt-a minor gene pool compared to the gene pools of other closely related critters.
I don’t care if they are genetically ‘distinct’ enough to ‘warrant management’, it is impossible to save every single fricking gene pool that represents an aberration of a species.
It’s ridiculous & outrageous that just bcs a small group of isolated smelts have a slightly different genetic profile, compared to many other types of smelt, that they should enjoy special protection to the point of destroying an economy of a region.
The notion of the term ‘species’ really needs to be debated, defined & then we need to get real & understand that every single gene pool in a species cannot be saved & doesn’t HAVE to be saved.

Badger40 on October 26, 2010 at 2:53 PM

You’d think the Hispanics who depend on ag business for their livelihoods would not be happy with the water turned off and rebel against the Dems…

Dandapani on October 26, 2010 at 2:30 PM

So many of them are illegal & they just went to other agricultural centers, like Indiana & Illinois & Washington state.

Badger40 on October 26, 2010 at 2:54 PM

Not to forget, Maam Boxer also favored the smelt over the growing of food in the valley.

slickwillie2001 on October 26, 2010 at 3:14 PM

Long gone are the days when a Governor would bring the State Police and physically turn the water back on despite anything the Feds said.

The overreach of the EPA and the Feds has caused more loss and hardship in this country then anything before.

Mao had about the same success with his ideas on farming didn’t he.

LifeTrek on October 26, 2010 at 5:50 PM

Just a few clarifications: The worst suffering due to the water shutoff is on the west side of the Central Valley, the side where the I-5 runs. There are some indications that one of Obama’s science advisors would be happy to see those California farms just disappear. On the East Side, water restrictions are not as severe in most places, though there are still cutbacks.

Jim Costa did, in fact, make a big show of bargaining for some water relief, with Boxer taking part of the credit. But it was a paltry amount of water, and came too late in the season for many crops, as I recall.

KarenT on October 27, 2010 at 1:40 AM

Can we also get rid of Cardoza, CA-18, central valley just north of Costa’s CA-20? Cardoza voted for TARP, Stimulus, Omnibus spending bill, Cap & Tax, and Obamacare (He was promised $600,000 for the new Merced Hospital for his Obamacare vote.) OOps! No money now has been allocated for the hospital, after his vote for Obamacare! What a dunce, Pelosi lap dog.

This district is jerrymandered like a SNAKE.

mhrepub on October 27, 2010 at 5:10 AM