Politico poll shows independents flocking to GOP

posted at 8:45 am on October 25, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Politico’s new poll reinforces the fact that momentum remains strong with fired-up Republicans, mainly because of fired-up independents.  The numbers look daunting for Democrats with just one week to go before Election Day, and in many places, past the time many have already voted.  And it’s not as though the Democrats didn’t have warnings that their massive expansion of government wouldn’t have dire consequences:

Expressing deep dissatisfaction with President Obama’s policies and performance, independents have increasingly sided with conservatives in the belief that government grew too large, too fast under Obama—and that it can no longer be trusted. In the final pre-election Battleground Poll, Republicans hold a 14-point edge among independents and lead overall, 47 percent to 42 percent, in the generic ballot match up. …

It’s the flight of independents that presents the biggest challenge for Democrats. Independents helped lift Democrats to power in 2006 and pushed Obama into office in 2008. But in last year’s Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, these voters registered grave concerns and did it again by breaking for Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) in his upset victory in January.

Instead of heeding the warnings, Democrats proceeded with the $1 trillion health care law and banked on an economic recovery that hasn’t come.

On health care: 62 percent of independents hold an unfavorable view of the new law (compared to 52 percent overall). Only six percent of independents view the legislation very favorably.

On the economy: 66 percent of independents say the recovery legislation is not working (compared to 57 percent overall). The percentage saying the “stimulus” is not working spiked 12 points since Labor Day.

The poll itself actually shows milder splits than others, such as Gallup, in the generic ballot and the split among independents.  The GOP wins the generic ballot by six points, 48/42, and independents break their way by 14.  Those are the consistent numbers from the Battleground poll this cycle, though.  Five weeks ago, the same pollster had the generic ballot at 47/43, and the previous poll to that had it at 43/43 even.  The idea that Democrats have staged some sort of comeback has no basis, and right now the best they can do is to hope most people voted early before their position eroded even further.

On favorability, the news gets worse for Democrats.  Barack Obama is now underwater in this measure, 46/51.  The Democratic Party has slipped below the GOP, 42/50 to 50/41, respectively.  The Tea Party does better than Democrats, too, at 41/38.  Interestingly, Obama’s job approval is very closely linked to his favorability now, 45/50, with 42% strongly disapproving.  His personal likability as a distinct advantage seems to have dissipated when asked as part of a series of other people and institutions, although a follow-up question asking specifically about Obama “as a person” generated a 65/24 response.

Obama has a bigger problem on the issues, as do Congressional Democrats.  The poll shows a dead heat between the GOP and Democrats on traditionally Democratic issues like health care and Social Security.  The GOP has significant leads on both when framed as a question between the GOP and Obama, with leads of 49/42 on health care and 47/39 on Social Security.  The GOP also beats Obama and the Democrats on the deficit (50/34, 51/37), the economy ( 48/42, 46/45), and “sharing your values (44/43 , 46/44).  Job creation is a dead heat between Republicans and Democrats in Congress, but the GOP leads by 11 points when pitted against Obama.

Not surprisingly, this translates into Obama’s re-elect numbers.  Only 30% will definitely vote for Obama in 2012, while 35% have already decided to vote against him.  Adding in “probables”, the re-elect split goes to 40/46, and with leaners 42/48.  Don’t expect to see Obama on the trail much this week with those numbers.


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Apparently a lot of people don’t like the way Obama is driving and want to take away the keys.

darwin on October 25, 2010 at 8:48 AM

Independents loved Obama when they thought they could just park him in the driveway and show off for the neighbors. But actually driving the damn thing, that sucks.

myrenovations on October 25, 2010 at 8:51 AM

Jay-Z to the rescue!

Buy Danish on October 25, 2010 at 8:55 AM

Aware voters understand that facts and statistics re our foundering economy do not lie. The ObaMao-Reid-Pelosi troika have been spending us into an (economic) abyss at warp speed.

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/accelerating-towards-the-abyss-the-real-story-of-fiscal-year-2010/?singlepage=true

onlineanalyst on October 25, 2010 at 8:56 AM


And it’s not as though the Democrats didn’t have warnings that their massive expansion of government wouldn’t have dire consequences …

Well, ya gotta look at it from their point of view, they won in 2008 and thought they had a mandate, that the people WANTED ‘change’.

To all Indies out there, the moral of the story, don’t vote for cool sounding bumber sticker slogans! (John Kerry was right for once!) Don’t vote for a guy just because he has a picture that make him look cool. Don’t vote for somebody just because ”it’s time to elect a _____ (fill in the blank) and you think it would be cool.

Cool doesn’t fix the problem, cool makes it worse. Cool might be fun to hang out with, but not to run the country.

Tony737 on October 25, 2010 at 8:57 AM

Apparently a lot of people don’t like the way Obama is driving and want to take away the keys.

darwin on October 25, 2010 at 8:48 AM

I want to run his driver’s license through a shredder…twice!

Oldnuke on October 25, 2010 at 8:57 AM

Obama failed the driving test.

tinkerthinker on October 25, 2010 at 8:58 AM

I say they tweak their messaging. Dumb it down a bit for the stupid voters who don’t yet recognize their awesomeness. Maybe throw in a metaphor about a derailed train and John Boehner standing around drinking a root beer float.

forest on October 25, 2010 at 9:01 AM

Why is he trying to pull the car out of the ditch with a beat up Donkey that should have been pasteurized long ago.
Move over Jackazz- here comes the Stallion.

hawkman on October 25, 2010 at 9:02 AM

Jay-Z to the rescue!

Buy Danish on October 25, 2010 at 8:55 AM

Which college did he attend?

OldEnglish on October 25, 2010 at 9:03 AM

And it’s not as though the Democrats didn’t have warnings that their massive expansion of government wouldn’t have dire consequences:

If Progressives are in charge of both parties leadership what difference does it make what PRETTY OR HISTORIC FACE you put in front of the cameras or in leadership?…………YOU GET THE SAME RESULTS…….BIGGER FEDERAL GOVERNMENT!!

http://www.quotedb.com/quotes/3239

Like Reagan said…..”as government expands, liberty contracts” (plain and simple)

PappyD61 on October 25, 2010 at 9:03 AM

And I am going to kiss Nancy Pelosi when she is gone

Nearly Nobody on October 25, 2010 at 9:03 AM

7-11 stock through roof, national Slurpee shortage……

roy_batty on October 25, 2010 at 9:04 AM

As a nation, we are going to feel the Obama-Pelosi pain for quite some time. The good news is that young people across our nation have now had their first real look at the disease called Liberalism, and it doesn’t look or feel anything like they thought it would.

Keemo on October 25, 2010 at 9:05 AM

I hope the GOP establishment does not look at this as a mandate from the people because it is definitely not. There are those in the hierarchy of the GOP as delusional as the liberal incompetents in this administration. We are in a struggle and they are only a temporary tool to use to slow socialism down. Forcing heaslthcare reform down the throats of over 70% of Americans was political suicide for the democrats. Deja vu is a possibilty for the republicans.

volsense on October 25, 2010 at 9:06 AM

Apparently a lot of people don’t like the way Obama is driving and want to take away the keys.

darwin on October 25, 2010 at 8:48 AM

I want him bound and gagged and stuffed in the trunk until we can dump him in front of his Chicago home. At a minimum, I want him in the back in restraints, where he can’t do any harm.

BuckeyeSam on October 25, 2010 at 9:07 AM

Obama failed the driving test.

tinkerthinker on October 25, 2010 at 8:58 AM

He couldn’t manage the clutch on the hill…embarrassing roll back…

ladyingray on October 25, 2010 at 9:08 AM

Obama failed the driving test.

tinkerthinker

Obama drives stupidly.

tree hugging sister on October 25, 2010 at 9:08 AM

30% are still going to vote for dear leader…..stocking up on the kool-aid I see

cmsinaz on October 25, 2010 at 9:09 AM

I find the number of tight races interesting, given the generic ballot numbers.

It doesn’t add up.

AnninCA on October 25, 2010 at 9:09 AM

It’s probably actually worse. Politico just couldn’t find any more ways to spin it for the Democrats. Everyone needs to stop treating them like an objective news source. Jonathan Martin’s reporting last week alone disproves that theory.

pxystick on October 25, 2010 at 9:10 AM

dead heat between the GOP and Democrats on traditionally Democratic issues like health care and Social Security

Objectively, the Democrats do nothing on Social Security other than defend an unsustainable status quo and bash Republicans.

Serious adults realize that SS needs to be reformed. Even people who depend on Social Security or want it to be there, know that the status quo is not an option.

On health care, again, the Democrats are hopelessly unrealistic, promising the moon, continally lying while bashing Republicans.

Serious adults will not be voting for Democrats in this election.

NoDonkey on October 25, 2010 at 9:12 AM

hope the GOP establishment does not look at this as a mandate from the people because it is definitely not. There are those in the hierarchy of the GOP as delusional as the liberal incompetents in this administration. We are in a struggle and they are only a temporary tool to use to slow socialism down. Forcing heaslthcare reform down the throats of over 70% of Americans was political suicide for the democrats. Deja vu is a possibilty for the republicans.

volsense on October 25, 2010 at 9:06 AM

If the attacks on teaparty continue and are successful, the GOP establishment will definitely start talking as though they have won. We’ll see alot of what’s been tried in the past.

And it’s a testy stage right now for conservatives.

AnninCA on October 25, 2010 at 9:12 AM

Jerry Brown follows Barack Obama’s big government–spread the wealth ideology to a tee:

He said California is a wealthy state and that “we’ve got to spread it out to everybody,” not “suck it all up to the top.” link

I’m no Joe the Plumber, but doesn’t this sound familiar?

Rovin on October 25, 2010 at 9:16 AM

I demand to see his long form driver’s license.
;-)

pambi on October 25, 2010 at 9:18 AM

Looks like Brown will win. I think that race isn’t about GOP/DEM so much as the extreme amount of money Meg was spending before she got hit with the maidgate deal.

AnninCA on October 25, 2010 at 9:20 AM

I find the number of tight races interesting, given the generic ballot numbers.
It doesn’t add up.
AnninCA on October 25, 2010 at 9:09 AM

If you wade into the weeds and look at the percentages being used to “arrive” at those numbers, you begin to realize that the poll numbers are wildly inaccurate in most cases.

Of course, long time pollsters have never seen anything like the enthusiasm gap that is currently in place, so they don’t really have a model that fits, and they don’t want to show the “real” numbers, because to them they can’t possibly be right.

A LOT of people are going to be surprised on Election Night…..

TeresainFortWorth on October 25, 2010 at 9:20 AM

Apparently a lot of people don’t like the way Obama is driving and want to take away the CAR.

FIFY

katablog.com on October 25, 2010 at 9:23 AM

The good news is that young people across our nation have now had their first real look at the disease called Liberalism, and it doesn’t look or feel anything like they thought it would.

Keemo on October 25, 2010 at 9:05 AM

Yep …… wait till these kiddies get into their late 20′s and are working, and they see how much money is taken out of their paychecks for taxes, and then they really will be “mugged by reality”.

Hopefully the next gereration or two will be grumbling “What the hell were you people thinking electing these socialists”.

Jerome Horwitz on October 25, 2010 at 9:23 AM

TeresainFortWorth on October 25, 2010 at 9:20 AM

Boy, a lot of pollsters will be ruined, then, if they are that far off. AP has, as you say, been on the defense, though, about their turnout numbers.

AnninCA on October 25, 2010 at 9:23 AM

TeresainFortWorth on October 25, 2010 at 9:20 AM

For a further explanation of this check out Obi-Wan’s analysis of Michael Barone’s take on the polls over at NRO.

The normal turnout models aren’t working this year.

B Man on October 25, 2010 at 9:26 AM

He said California is a wealthy state and that “we’ve got to spread it out to everybody,” not “suck it all up to the top.” Rovin on October 25, 2010 at 9:16 AM

How can someone who’s just done government his whole life not understand economics and wealth creation? I’m lost for the answer.

Mojave Mark on October 25, 2010 at 9:26 AM

Byron York made a great point on Bill Bennett’s show this morning (I’m paraphrasing): Democrats screwed up so quickly that the Republicans haven’t had time to recover from their beating a few years ago.
They better be ready to jump high next Wednesday.

Yellowdog12 on October 25, 2010 at 9:27 AM

I’d rather be drinking a Slurpee than their Kool-Aid.

tims472 on October 25, 2010 at 9:28 AM

AnninCA on October 25, 2010 at 9:23 AM

I haven’t seen or heard from Barone for a while but according to ‘Obi-wan’ over at NRO Barone is in “awe” of what he’s seeing right now.

What polls are ever right on? Did any poll predict Scott Brown winning by 5%? If there was one that did, I missed it.

If a lot of polls are way off the organizations will shrug it off to a crazy year, and forget about it.

B Man on October 25, 2010 at 9:29 AM

I think that race isn’t about GOP/DEM so much as the extreme amount of money Meg was spending before she got hit with the maidgate deal.

AnninCA on October 25, 2010 at 9:20 AM

Funny how folks forget to mention that the UNIONS have been matching Whitman’s spending dollar for dollar. Brown will be owned by the unions and the status quo of spending taxpayer dollars. Whitman will owe NOTHING to the special interest that have driven this state into virtual bankruptcy.

Rovin on October 25, 2010 at 9:31 AM

Not gonna matter. The fraudsters will steal it no matter what.

billhedrick on October 25, 2010 at 9:32 AM

Looks like that shiny, new Obama car might look good in the promotional brochures, but those who bought into Obama Motors are finding out the car only makes left turns when taken for a drive.

Well Stan, this is another fine mess you have gotten us in to.

devolvingtowardsidiocracy on October 25, 2010 at 9:34 AM

A LOT of people are going to be surprised on Election Night…..

TeresainFortWorth on October 25, 2010 at 9:20 AM

100% agree. there’s a political earthquake brewin. put on yer helmet and make some popcorn!

maineconservative on October 25, 2010 at 9:37 AM

I want him bound and gagged and stuffed in the trunk until we can dump him in front of his Chicago home. At a minimum, I want him in the back in restraints, where he can’t do any harm.

BuckeyeSam on October 25, 2010 at 9:07 AM

As PJ O’Rourke said..’this is not an election, this is a restraining order’

lukespapa on October 25, 2010 at 9:39 AM

The polls seem to me to be understating the election as well.
Even our local Dem incumbents here(we’re talking rural county officials) are distancing themselves from Obama/Pelosi! And the only place you see them identified as Democrats will be on the ballot.

Poor AnninCA, California is about to fall off the fiscal continent into the Pacific of Red Ink, and if Meg Whitman did sell out to a police union for an endorsement she’ll be about as effective as Ahnold. Get a life jacket, Ann.

cartooner on October 25, 2010 at 9:42 AM

Not gonna matter. The fraudsters will steal it no matter what.

billhedrick on October 25, 2010 at 9:32 AM

The general feeling I am getting this particular midterm is that anyone who even so much as attempts voter fraud in any manner, shape, or form will do so at their own physical peril.

It’s a new game this time out, with a whole new set of rules.

pilamaye on October 25, 2010 at 9:56 AM

Looks like that shiny, new Obama car might look good in the promotional brochures, but those who bought into Obama Motors are finding out the car only makes left turns when taken for a drive.

Well Stan, this is another fine mess you have gotten us in to.

devolvingtowardsidiocracy on October 25, 2010 at 9:34 AM

The new House should install new brakes on the Obamobile.

Why is he trying to pull the car out of the ditch with a beat up Donkey that should have been pasteurized long ago.

Hitch up that car to a big strong Elephant!

Steve Z on October 25, 2010 at 9:56 AM

They must not have been too influenced by the $87.5 million (AKA second hand tax money) apent by the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) to influence the election.

“We’re the big dog, but we don’t like to brag.”

Fallon on October 25, 2010 at 9:58 AM

Don’t expect to see Obama on the trail much this week with those numbers.

Well the Obama was correct on one thing the difference between 1994 and today is they got him.

unseen on October 25, 2010 at 10:01 AM

Don’t expect to see Obama on the trail much this week with those numbers.

RI Democrat says that Obama can take his endorsement and “shove it.” What a racist./

headlines at drudge.

ted c on October 25, 2010 at 10:02 AM

And the only place you see them identified as Democrats will be on the ballot.
cartooner on October 25, 2010 at 9:42 AM

which at the end of the day is all the voter needs to vote against them. I would like to see the % of ballots that have been voted straight party ticket this year compared to previous years.

I wouldn’t vote for a dem for dog catcher.

unseen on October 25, 2010 at 10:03 AM

Politico poll shows independents Non-Socialists flocking to GOP

Fixed

Socialists still flocking to, and associating with the Democratic Party.

HondaV65 on October 25, 2010 at 10:04 AM

Apparently a lot of people don’t like the way Obama is driving and want to take away the CAR.

FIFY

alwyr on October 25, 2010 at 10:07 AM

I wouldn’t vote for a dem for dog catcher.

unseen on October 25, 2010 at 10:03 AM

I would, if the dog was infected with some kind of human transmutable herpes-rabies virus. On second thought, I wouldn’t… I’m afraid of what else that poor dog might contract.

The Mega Independent on October 25, 2010 at 10:09 AM

I would, if the dog was infected with some kind of human transmutable herpes-rabies virus. On second thought, I wouldn’t… I’m afraid of what else that poor dog might contract.

The Mega Independent on October 25, 2010 at 10:09 AM

lol

unseen on October 25, 2010 at 10:19 AM

A lot of these independents made the idiotic decision to vote for Obama to prove to all their friends and neighbors that they were not racist.

Now, they have to try to prove they are not idiotic.

They could have avoided the entire tissue by not being idiots two years ago.

coldwarrior on October 25, 2010 at 10:24 AM

I was discussing Juan Williams firing on facebook. One person said, I was going to check one box on the left…after Juan Williams was fired, the person said forget it, I am voting straight Republican…what kind of idiots that are running a multi million dollar enterprise, fires someone over the phone?

The firing of Juan Williams a Liberal by NPR, and the reason for firing him, and how they fired him, has pissed a lot of Independents off.

The so called damage control after the fact just sealed their opinion of the “Professional Left”

When the Democrats lose, they can thank George Soros, and his bought and paid for propaganda machines.

Dr Evil on October 25, 2010 at 10:24 AM

“…entire tissue…”

coldwarrior on October 25, 2010 at 10:24 AM

OK…should be “entire issue”…

(Preview is not a bad thing.) :-)

coldwarrior on October 25, 2010 at 10:33 AM

Ed,

Jon Ralston in Vegas and Ambinder think this election is shaping up like 2006 sted 1994. Said stats much the same as 2006.

What say you?

eaglesdontflock on October 25, 2010 at 10:39 AM

Don’t expect to see Obama on the trail much this week with those numbers.

Well the Obama was correct on one thing the difference between 1994 and today is they got him.

unseen on October 25, 2010 at 10:01 AM

RealClearPolitics now has 222 House seats as Likely or Lean Republican, meaning Republicans take the House WITHOUT winning any “toss-ups”.

Come on, Bammie, come to our state and tell the voters how stupid they are…we double-dog dare ya!

Steve Z on October 25, 2010 at 11:15 AM

Poor AnninCA, California is about to fall off the fiscal continent into the Pacific of Red Ink, and if Meg Whitman did sell out to a police union for an endorsement she’ll be about as effective as Ahnold. Get a life jacket, Ann.

cartooner on October 25, 2010 at 9:42 AM

I’m not in Texas. I lived in CA long enough, though, to keep up with politics. Meg started off with a huge problem. The enthusiasm for a moderate Republican was spent on Arnold. He really couldn’t do anything with the Dem legislature, and it’s been painful. She represents the same type. And I think people honestly didn’t think much would be different with her than Arnold. He had loads of goodwill, from Independents, and he couldn’t crack the nut.

So Jerry had that advantage. Maybe a Dem can talk them into reality.

Second, she vastly overspent. I like her, and even I couldn’t imagine the money she’s spent on this. It’s not that I think she’s after some more money. It’s sort of worse. Man, that’s an ego trip!

Third, maidgate was simply the tipping point. I’m amazed what issues become tipping points, but there you go.

That smear worked.

AnninCA on October 25, 2010 at 11:18 AM

Nevermind politics, I am worried that we’re going to see 2 years of irrelevant issues. If Dems hold the Senate, and the GOP takes the House, then whatever will get passed?

I don’t think we can afford 2 years of campaign junk, personally.

AnninCA on October 25, 2010 at 11:19 AM

Finally, I think that Sarah will come out smelling like a rose on this election. She endorsed a ton of representative positions, not just the big names.

So she’ll lose a few on the Senate side, gain far more on the Rep side.

Win for her.

AnninCA on October 25, 2010 at 11:21 AM

The pressure to look past the evidance that Obama was an America hating Marxist was tremendous. I understand the people who bought into the hype around the 1st black president being a goal in and of itself. Why? Because that one little piece of the puzzle was tempting to me too.
-
However, 15 minutes of researching with an open mind wiped that thought from my brain. Had the other guy, McCain been anywhere near as bad as Barry… I would have sat the election out. I’d rather not vote between a painful death delivered by a sweet talking precedent, and dying in agony by some other form.
-
At least Mc loves America… And then there was Sarah. Rather than voting against Obama I actually got to vote for someone.
-
And that was the trick that was played on the independents… They thought they were voting for the first black president (who was awesomeness incarnate according to the MSM and Oprah). Instead what they got was a wannabe dictator who abused the position and the super majority in order to drive US towards a cliff that could end America’s days as the best country on the planet… for ever.
-
Hope they… the independents… learned not to trust the MSM to tell the truth… Or Oprah.

RalphyBoy on October 25, 2010 at 11:53 AM

Looks like Brown will win. I think that race isn’t about GOP/DEM so much as the extreme amount of money Meg was spending before she got hit with the maidgate deal.

AnninCA on October 25, 2010 at 9:20 AM

..it’s about the stupidity of the people in our state and the power of the unions and those who pander to illegal immigrants and mindless college students who want to cash in on the stash the few hard-working, self-supporting taxpayers left in this state.

California: land of the truly pathetic puss-bags.

The War Planner on October 25, 2010 at 12:48 PM

Second, [Meg Whitman] vastly overspent. I like her, and even I couldn’t imagine the money she’s spent on this. It’s not that I think she’s after some more money. It’s sort of worse. Man, that’s an ego trip!

..you folks don’t get, do you? The not-so-dirty-little-secret is that Whitman helped bankroll Fiorina’s and other [R] campaigns. She put her money and effort into attempting to revive a moribund and sold-out CA GOP. She may have failed, but the seeds have been sewn.

If anything comes of her loss, it will be that Brown will take CA over the cliff while bum-osculating the teachers’ and public employees’ unions. If he does cut their obscene retirement plans, then they will be getting a FMJRA from one of their own.

The War Planner on October 25, 2010 at 12:54 PM

Thanks Ed we’ll take it where we can get it

Politico’s new poll reinforces the fact that momentum remains strong with fired-up Republicans, mainly because of fired-up independents.

The Expert Knows
http://theexpertsblog.blogspot.com

HotAirExpert on October 25, 2010 at 1:02 PM

Don’t expect to see Obama on the trail much this week with those numbers.

Are you kidding? He’s booked solid in blue states across the country. Nobody can keep ol’ Barry off the campaign trail when there’s work to be done in the White House, even if his party begs him to stay home.

Missy on October 25, 2010 at 4:17 PM

Missy on October 25, 2010 at 4:17 PM

Campaigning is the only thing that JOTUS is somewhat good at. There’s nothing else for him to do.

slickwillie2001 on October 25, 2010 at 5:48 PM