Globe poll shows Frank up 13 over Bielat, but enthusiasm breaking for GOP

posted at 10:05 am on October 25, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Call this good news/bad news for Barney Frank in his fight to hold onto his job in Massachusetts’ 4th CD.  The Boston Globe reports that Frank has a 13-point lead — but only gets 46% of the vote in a two-way race, 46-33.  With a week to go before voting, Frank’s inability to get a majority may reveal a serious problem, and the Globe notes that enthusiasm may be that problem (via Jim Geraghty):

US Representative Barney Frank, Democrat of Newton, leads his Republican challenger, Sean Bielat, by 13 percentage points among likely voters in the Fourth Congressional District. In the race for the open seat in the neighboring 10th District, Norfolk District Attorney William R. Keating leads state Representative Jeffrey D. Perry by 4 percentage points, within that survey’s margin of error.

Among those who say they are excited about Nov. 2, Bielat and Perry have double-digit leads, the polls indicate.

In both races, however, supporters of the Republican nominees say they are more excited about the election, which often correlates to higher turnout on Election Day, said Andrew E. Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The center conducted the polls for the Globe.

The numbers seem strangely low for this late in the cycle, especially for two-way races:

Among likely voters in their districts, Frank leads Bielat, 46 percent to 33 percent, while Keating leads Perry, 37 percent to 33 percent, the polls found. The surveys, of 385 likely voters in the Fourth District and 349 voters in the 10th, had margins of error of 5 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively. Both were taken from Oct. 17-22.

Are we to believe that 23% of all voters have no preference in the MA-10 race, with just eight days to go? That seems very, very unlikely. The fringe candidates only absorb 5% of the vote in this district, about what would be expected in the general election.

The same can be said to a lesser extent in the Frank/Bielat race in MA-04.  At this point, a long-time incumbent with a profile as high as Frank’s should either be above 50% or updating his resumé.  Coming in at 46% against a relative unknown in a district like MA-04 means big trouble for Frank, which is why he had to pump $200,000 of his own money into the race and try pitching himself as a nice guy.

As for the enthusiasm numbers, it shows that some voters are more “likely” than others.  We’ll see who shows up to the polls on November 2nd.

Update: Legal Insurrection reminds us that the Boston Globe poll put Martha Coakley up 15 points over Scott Brown ten days before the election.


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I’ve got a good feeling about this one. No AP style Eeyorism can convince me otherwise.

….
Gulp.

blatantblue on October 25, 2010 at 10:07 AM

Dead men walking. All those undecideds are libs/dems who don’t want to admit they will be voting for Repubs.

Rocks on October 25, 2010 at 10:09 AM

This is the depressing thing. People in that district can be presented with the evidence that Barney was the catalyst that caused the housing bubble which reeks havoc on all our lives and they STILL won’t look at anyone else. You know where Bareny Frank’s arrogance comes from? Voters in his district. He is Rep for life no matter what he does.

Conan on October 25, 2010 at 10:10 AM

I suspect in MA you’ll see a surprisingly large number of people who are afraid to admit they don’t support Bawwney.

CatoRenasci on October 25, 2010 at 10:11 AM

Anyone notice that you can tell when Frank is getting desperate when he talks louder and louder? Lately, he has been talking really loud!

pilamaye on October 25, 2010 at 10:12 AM

MA-4, not MN-4, Ed. :)

Red Cloud on October 25, 2010 at 10:12 AM

In MA, it will be tought to win. Too much fraud. The Dems will try to steal any election where they can “find” an extra box of votes that are all for the lib.

In the liberal mind, the end justifies the means.

jeffn21 on October 25, 2010 at 10:15 AM

I never thought Bielat would actually beat Frank…

… but it’s sure as hell fun to watch him sweat and stammer.

Keep pushing!

Abby Adams on October 25, 2010 at 10:15 AM

Are we to believe that 23% of all voters have no preference in the MA-10 race, with just eight days to go?

Conversely, one could postulate that 23% of voters, predominantly democrats, don’t want to admit they may vote for the evil republican to a pollster, or that they don’t want to admit that they are going to sit this one out.

Ultimately, races like this are going to depend upon whether the democrat base comes out on election day. The base didn’t turn out for the Scott Brown election, consequently, he won Frank’s district.

Vashta.Nerada on October 25, 2010 at 10:15 AM

Watching Democrats sweat MA-4 is delicious.

amerpundit on October 25, 2010 at 10:16 AM

What would it take for this district to not re-elect Frank? Being the one individual most responsible for tanking the banking industry and overall economy enough?

forest on October 25, 2010 at 10:17 AM

If this is what the Globe is saying then Sean has an excellent shot of dethroning Barney.

One must understand that the Globe is nothing more than a mouthpiece of the local Democrat Party to the point where they do not even pretend to hide it any longer. There is no doubt in my mind that this poll is skewed so heavily left as to beg credibility.

turfmann on October 25, 2010 at 10:17 AM

Political ad?

“Can you afford to lend yourself $200 Gs? Oh, that’s right, you don’t have a job!”

marinetbryant on October 25, 2010 at 10:17 AM

Remember, the Bost Globe is the propaganda arm of the Mass Dem Party, so it’s prolly much worse. Just sayin.

Alden Pyle on October 25, 2010 at 10:18 AM

That’s an awfully small poll- less than 400 likely voters polled.

MTF on October 25, 2010 at 10:19 AM

This is the depressing thing. People in that district can be presented with the evidence that Barney was the catalyst that caused the housing bubble which reeks havoc on all our lives and they STILL won’t look at anyone else. You know where Bareny Frank’s arrogance comes from? Voters in his district. He is Rep for life no matter what he does.

Conan on October 25, 2010 at 10:10 AM

With all due respect….I sure hope you’re wrong. I hear what you’re saying, but I pray daily, and I really hope you’re wrong on this. Barney needs to go, and I hope the people who are in his district know this as well, and send him his walking papers.

capejasmine on October 25, 2010 at 10:19 AM

Dead men walking. All those undecideds are libs/dems who don’t want to admit they will be voting for Repubs.

Rocks on October 25, 2010 at 10:09 AM

Maybe they can vote with brown paper bags over their heads. Anything. They finally have a worthy opponent, and they can say that they blame Frank for the housing bubble and resulting financial crisis–and they’d be right.

Pull that lever for Bielat.

BuckeyeSam on October 25, 2010 at 10:19 AM

Don’t forget that the “news organizations” want the libs to win, so the will skew any poll to their liking.

grapeknutz on October 25, 2010 at 10:20 AM

November 3rd headline:


Barney Frank goes down!!!

IronDioPriest on October 25, 2010 at 10:20 AM

… but it’s sure as hell fun to watch him sweat and stammer.

Keep pushing!

Abby Adams on October 25, 2010 at 10:15 AM

Baad messaging..

the_nile on October 25, 2010 at 10:20 AM

I don’t believe the pollsters have a clue. This year is unlike anything the country has ever seen in recent history, and I doubt anyone alive has ever seen anything like it.

Historians? Care to offer an opinion?

Skandia Recluse on October 25, 2010 at 10:21 AM

http://blogs.dailymail.com/donsurber/archives/23435

In January, 9 days before the election, the Boston Globe reported: “Democrat Martha Coakley, buoyed by her durable statewide popularity, enjoys a solid, 15-percentage-point lead over Republican rival Scott Brown as the race for US Senate enters the homestretch, according to a new Boston Globe poll of likely voters.”

CommentGuy on October 25, 2010 at 10:21 AM

Is it just my family, or are there other people who are deliberately lying to pollsters?

spudmom on October 25, 2010 at 10:22 AM

We’ll see who shows up to the polls on November 2nd.

ACORN, SEIU, UAW, …………………

BacaDog on October 25, 2010 at 10:22 AM

That’s an awfully small poll- less than 400 likely voters polled.

MTF on October 25, 2010 at 10:19 AM

Maybe that’s all they could find??? LOL

capejasmine on October 25, 2010 at 10:24 AM

Barney Frank: “That wascally wabbit jwust won’t gwo away! And now I hwave to spwend swome wof my wown mwoney cwampaigning. I wonly wike to spwend wother pweople’s mwoney!”

BuckeyeSam on October 25, 2010 at 10:25 AM

I’ve got a good feeling about this one. No AP style Eeyorism can convince me otherwise.

and

I don’t believe the pollsters have a clue. This year is unlike anything the country has ever seen in recent history, and I doubt anyone alive has ever seen anything like it.

I am with both of you…if the tsunami doesn’t hit big we are truly lost!

winston on October 25, 2010 at 10:25 AM

Dead men walking. All those undecideds are libs/dems who don’t want to admit they will be voting for Repubs……….Rocks on October 25, 2010 at 10:09 AM

Great point. Many of my Dem Dim friends are this way.

Herb on October 25, 2010 at 10:26 AM

Are we to believe that 23% of all voters have no preference in the MA-10 race, with just eight days to go?

IF that is true, and the fact that barney has any support at all, is a rather sad statement on the voters of his district.

He should be heading for prison, not running for congress.

UltimateBob on October 25, 2010 at 10:26 AM

What’s breaking against Barney is the slowly dawning realization that…..

WE CAN KNOCK THIS CLOWN OFF HIS PERCH!!!.

roy_batty on October 25, 2010 at 10:26 AM

In MA, it will be tought to win. Too much fraud. The Dems will try to steal any election where they can “find” an extra box of votes that are all for the lib.

In the liberal mind, the end justifies the means.

jeffn21 on October 25, 2010 at 10:15 AM

But here’s the thing–and it helped Scott Brown as well.

The Democrats have never had to steal the election to win in MA, so the election-stealing infrastructure isn’t there. All Bawwney has on his side is whatever they could knock together since Scott Brown’s win, which isn’t the same as years-long ACORN entrenchment.

Sekhmet on October 25, 2010 at 10:28 AM

ACORN, SEIU, UAW, …………………

BacaDog on October 25, 2010 at 10:22 AM

The unions could not keep their troops in line for Kennedy.

http://michellemalkin.com/2010/01/13/seiu-affiliated-union-endorses-scott-brown/

roy_batty on October 25, 2010 at 10:29 AM

Get this ad to go VIRAL and watch Barney Frank sink like concrete tied to a foot:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIKMkZm6Oqw

UnderstandingisPower on October 25, 2010 at 10:30 AM

All Bawwney has on his side is whatever they could knock together since Scott Brown’s win, which isn’t the same as years-long ACORN entrenchment.

Sekhmet on October 25, 2010 at 10:28 AM

He didn’t even realize he had an opponent until ~6 weeks ago…..

Oops!

roy_batty on October 25, 2010 at 10:30 AM

Don’t trust polls. The LA Times pulled the same crap prior to Schwarzenneger beating Gray Davis in the recall election. LA Times readers woke up stunned to hear Davis lost. The rest of us voted.

rrpjr on October 25, 2010 at 10:31 AM

the_nile on October 25, 2010 at 10:20 AM

Heh.

In January, 9 days before the election, the Boston Globe reported: “Democrat Martha Coakley, buoyed by her durable statewide popularity, enjoys a solid, 15-percentage-point lead over Republican rival Scott Brown as the race for US Senate enters the homestretch, according to a new Boston Globe poll of likely voters.”

CommentGuy on October 25, 2010 at 10:21 AM

C’mon parallels!!!!

Abby Adams on October 25, 2010 at 10:31 AM

IT WOULD REALLY BE A SURPRISE IF FRANK LOSES IN NOV. 2.

SO, SIR ED. PLEASE DON’T SPOIL THE SUSPENSE IF BIELAT WINS THIS ONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Same may be said of COD in Delaware.

TheAlamos on October 25, 2010 at 10:35 AM

Boston Globe; not worthy of mention.

Keemo on October 25, 2010 at 10:36 AM

Michelle Malkins top story…

http://michellemalkin.com/

capejasmine on October 25, 2010 at 10:40 AM

Historians? Care to offer an opinion?

Skandia Recluse on October 25, 2010 at 10:21 AM

The best comparison I can come up with off-hand? 1894, where Grover Cleveland’s Democrats and the Populists got their clocks cleaned by the Republicans coming off the Panic Of 1893, which was the biggest economic downturn in US history to that time.

There isn’t really a point of comparison in the modern era of polling and national media. It’s going to be a big one and there are probably a lot of races with either no polls or light polling that will be in play come election night. I wouldn’t be shocked if there’s an unexpected upset in the Senate within a “safe” blue state such as Maryland, Hawaii, or Oregon depending on turnout.

teke184 on October 25, 2010 at 10:41 AM

Anyone notice that you can tell when Frank is getting desperate when he talks louder and louder? Lately, he has been talking really loud!

pilamaye on October 25, 2010 at 10:12 AM

Stop interrupting me!!! ––– Barney’s Frank

Seriously, tho’, that Globe poll was designed to take some of that enthusiasm out of anti-Barney voters.

cartooner on October 25, 2010 at 10:43 AM

Well that will get Bielat more donations today! Starting here!

ctmom on October 25, 2010 at 10:49 AM

Yeah the Globe is an arch liberal paper owned by the NYSlimes. Take the poll with a grain of salt. Scott Brown won Barney’s district, handily.

Those voters and more are still there.

dogsoldier on October 25, 2010 at 10:50 AM

Bielat is further behind in the polls than O’Donnell – but according to many, we are supposed to believe that he will win and she will lose even though both of them are in heavily Democrat areas. Why is that? I guess Bielat must have the RINO stamp of approval. But I’m not giving up on anyone and I have contributed to both of them because unlike the RINOs I understand winning is more important than whining.

Done That on October 25, 2010 at 10:53 AM

Trying hard not to be unrealisticly optimistic, but upon the new congress swearing in ceremony, just seeing Pelosi get fired as Speaker, Ried fired from the Senate and Frank fired from the House would be, shiney.

Then again, letting the optimism bubble over, the previous three, PLUS Boxer, Feinstein, Coons and Crist.

Very humpbot-able.

44Magnum on October 25, 2010 at 10:57 AM

23% won’t say who they are going to vote for? In a Machine district like Frank’s, you get a phone call asking “who ya gonna vote for”, do you answer truthfully? If you are voting for Frank, yes; if not, maybe you answer “Don’t Know”.

motionview on October 25, 2010 at 10:58 AM

If Frank loses, it will obviously be all the homophobia in his district.

Kafir on October 25, 2010 at 11:05 AM

GOP message should be in all these races:
“You like the economy as it is? Then vote Democrat.
You don’t like it? Then vote the Democrats out.”

albill on October 25, 2010 at 11:12 AM

I wouldn’t surprise me if they elected Barney…Liberals have no standard besides just being a liberal.

right2bright on October 25, 2010 at 11:13 AM

If Frank loses, it will obviously be all the homophobia in his district.

Kafir on October 25, 2010 at 11:05 AM

Of course, with all those nasty right-wing sites constantly harping on his homosexuality /s

Seriously, jokes are 10-1 on the most right-wing of the right-wing blogs about his speech impediment versus his homosexuality when it comes to cheap shots, and more than that when it comes to his corruption and venality. Face it, most of the right wing hate Frank for his screwing the taxpayer, not for screwing other guys.

Sekhmet on October 25, 2010 at 11:17 AM

Am I missing something? How come Scott Brown isn’t out campaigning for Bielat??? Would love to have Barney lose . . . it would be frosting on the cake on Nov 3rd.

Bob in VA on October 25, 2010 at 11:20 AM

No politician puts $200k into their candidacy when they are up by +13. To do so is nuts… mind you he will spend YOUR money hand over fist without thought, which pretty much describes him as an elected official – an unthinking spendthrift.

Something does not smell right in that poll and others like it.

ajacksonian on October 25, 2010 at 11:21 AM

How can the Boston Globe do a whole story on the congressional races in Mass. but fail to mention the John Tierney’s wife is going to jail for laundering money for her fugitive brother….?
They didn’t even mention his name but managed to include a smear about Republican Jeff Perry.

NeoKong on October 25, 2010 at 11:24 AM

The moral of the story is that Reps are harder to beat. :)

He’ll win. And nobody cares that it was hard.

AnninCA on October 25, 2010 at 11:25 AM

I hate to echo eeyore-ish sentiments, but I live in MA-4 and was active in the Scott Brown campaign. I have to say that the level of passion for Bielat is far far below that experienced for Brown. While I am hoping for the best, I can never underestimate the knee-jerk dem-voting of the MA electorate. If Bawney’s clear role in the mortgage meltdown and his copius corrupt dealings with current & former boyfriends to his personal financial gain don’t disqualify him from reelection, then, alas there is no hope for my beloved state. Not to go all Alec Baldwin, but the wife and I are seriously exploring moving out of region to escape this mess.

Huckabye-Romney on October 25, 2010 at 11:26 AM

Am I missing something? How come Scott Brown isn’t out campaigning for Bielat??? Would love to have Barney lose . . . it would be frosting on the cake on Nov 3rd.

Bob in VA on October 25, 2010 at 11:20 AM

Scott reminds me alot of Romney. Stay hidden, as long as possible. Pretend to like the base, and then distance.

Same old GOP stuff. But he can get by with it. After all, it’s MA.

AnninCA on October 25, 2010 at 11:27 AM

The fringe candidates only absorb 5% of the vote in this district….

Are you telling me Barney is mainsteam?

dentalque on October 25, 2010 at 11:28 AM

I don’t believe any of these polls. I just don’t.
I do believe the Dems are doing their best to steal this election and these polls have to come out with the Dems ahead to make it not so surprising when they win.
BUT I don’t believe for one second that Barney is ahead by that much.

ORconservative on October 25, 2010 at 11:30 AM

Flop sweat. Bawney is headed for the unemployment line.

Dominion on October 25, 2010 at 11:40 AM

It’s easier for reps to hold onto their seats in MA.

I’m sure Barney will be getting plenty of support from Union thugs and assorted hacks from other districts.

District 4 is a pretty bizarre map, too. A very diverse group of moonbats.
http://www.sec.state.ma.us/cis/cispdf/mauscongdist4.pdf

reaganaut on October 25, 2010 at 11:44 AM

I refused to buy any products made in MA, visit or buy anything in MA if I had to make a trip through it, or go on any vacations there as long as the morons in MA kept sending “the swimmer” to Washington. I guess I’m going to have to extend the moratorium until they get rid of Fannie and Freddie’s benefactor.

It looks like I am going to also have to avoid CT, as they like liars and con-artists as much as MA.

belad on October 25, 2010 at 11:46 AM

It sure would be great for the voters to put salt on this toothless slug Nov.2!
L

letget on October 25, 2010 at 11:53 AM

From Michelle’s post:

But this federal legislation is only as good as the Justice Department’s willingness to enforce it.

Well, we know how that works.
It’s amazing that this voter fraud issue, which undermines the entire election process, goes on and on and on with very few consequences for the cheats.
Unbelievable.

PaddyJ on October 25, 2010 at 12:28 PM

In both races, however, supporters of the Republican nominees say they are more excited about the election, which often correlates to higher turnout on Election Day, said Andrew E. Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The center conducted the polls for the Globe.

UNH’s Survey Center mainly does polling for Leftist groups like the Glob here, as well as NH Public Radio. Their total staff is 4 people. Not sure I would rely on them as a polling source.

Del Dolemonte on October 25, 2010 at 12:52 PM

To get rid of Bwarney would definitely be deserving of a Humpbot thread!!!

csdeven on October 25, 2010 at 2:32 PM

He should be heading for prison, not running for congress.

UltimateBob on October 25, 2010 at 10:26 AM

Well…assuming he gets jettisoned by his district, I imagine he is in for one of Issa’s subpoenas.

The subsequent indictment, trial & conviction will probably earn him a trip to the Big House. Unless he turns States Evidence and helps the prosecutors fry even bigger fish.

Sigh! To Dream, to dream!

PakviRoti on October 25, 2010 at 3:00 PM

$200K of his own money? To me, that says it all– Barney fears he might lose because he knows the district better than outside pollsters. The sad thing is that he apparently couldn’t find the funds from donors. There is nothing sadder than a clown who doesn’t know when to get off the stage. Barney’s show is over.

I think the pollsters’ criteria for defining likely voters is what will trip them up this year. We are expecting a good turnout, but what if it is a bone crushing avalanche against the Dems? Sweet water after a long desert journey!

gajaw999 on October 25, 2010 at 3:09 PM

To get rid of Bwarney would definitely be deserving of a Humpbot thread!!!

csdeven on October 25, 2010 at 2:32 PM

As we say in the South, “Look out now, young-un!” How exactly would Humpbot be positioned in light of the subject at hand? LOL

gajaw999 on October 25, 2010 at 3:13 PM

A bit off the subject, but I just have to ask;
Does Barney Frank have teeth? If you look
at his picture, he doesn’t look like he has
any teeth! Just saying….

Susanboo on October 25, 2010 at 5:27 PM

Too wittle too wate? I dunnno. Could be a sqwwwweaker.

curved space on October 25, 2010 at 5:55 PM

Here is the video that should defeat Rep. Barney Frank. Share this video with your friends!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMnSp4qEXNM&NR=1

The video shows President Bush and Senator McCain warning Democrats of the problems at Freddie and Fannie, while Rep. Barney Frank and Senator Chuck Schumer deny the problem.

Vote for Sean Bielat to defeat Rep. Frank
http://seanbielat.org/

Vote for Jay Townsend to defeat New York Senator Chuck Schumer.
http://www.townsendfornewyork.com/

wren on October 25, 2010 at 6:37 PM

The most important “enthusiasm gap” advantage for Bielat is that many voters who have wanted to boot Barney for years, but figured there was no chance, didn’t vote in the past, but will be out in force this year. They will finally have a chance to vote for a winner, rather than going through the motions. I think that was a huge advantage for Scott Brown, and should be just as big for Sean Bielat.

When you give a starving man something to eat, he will eat it with gusto.

Scaldis Noel on October 25, 2010 at 6:50 PM

All Bielat has to do is play Barney’s “roll the dice one more time on Fannie and Freddie” video, and show snakeyes coming up on the dice.

slickwillie2001 on October 25, 2010 at 7:49 PM

I don’t know why anyone would ever vote for Barney Frank for anything. What is wrong with the people in his district?

Dollayo on October 25, 2010 at 9:35 PM