Republican up 10 in OR-5?

posted at 3:50 pm on October 21, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

It’s hard to cover Congressional races and give all 435 attention, simply because the effort in keeping up with the vast number of races would prove overwhelming.  A few races that get nationalized for various reasons — say, calling an opponent a member of the Taliban, or being responsible for the collapse of the lending industry — but otherwise the national attention looks to meta-level polling and races involving leadership, or in a few cases, districts that may give tea-leaves readers a sense of proportion for the national momentum.

Oregon’s 5th CD race may be one of the latter.  The district has a narrow D+1 rating, but hasn’t been represented by a Republican since 1995.  Democrats have held the seat for nine of the last ten terms.  The incumbent, Kurt Schrader, won the seat by 16 points in 2008, and Republicans haven’t scored above 45.1% in more than a decade.  And yet, Survey USA shows that Republican challenger Scott Bruun has a 10-point lead with less than two weeks to go:

In an election for US House of Representatives in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District today, 10/20/10, Republican challenger Scott Bruun edges Democratic incumbent Kurt Schrader 51% to 41%, according to an exclusive KATU-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Bruun, elected to the Oregon House in 2004, runs strong among men and younger voters. Schrader is within striking distance among women and older voters. As it has in other geographies, SurveyUSA here probes to see if those who rarely vote in congressional elections, but who say they are uniquely motivated to vote in 2010, are voting Republican. One theory underlying much of the 2010 campaign narrative is that Republicans are uniquely motivated, Democrats uniquely dispirited. As SurveyUSA observed in data released 24 hours ago to KATU-TV in Oregon’s 1′st Congressional District, that narrative is true here: Bruun leads 2:1 among those who rarely vote in midterms. The contest is closer among those who vote in every congressional election. A question on enthusiasm reveals: those more enthusiastic about voting in 2010 than in prior elections vote Republican 3:1; those less enthusiastic in 2010 than in prior elections vote Democrat 3:1. Among the 1 in 10 voters who have already filled out a ballot, the contest is even. Schrader’s hope is that all those who told SurveyUSA they will vote but haven’t yet, won’t.

Oregon’s 1st CD is a D+8 district, and incumbent Democrat David Wu has a nine-point lead despite the “dispirited” nature of Democrats.  Republicans probably never considered OR-01 a serious candidate for a pickup, but then again, they had little reason to suspect OR-05 would be one, either — until it was.

Bruun leads among both men and women, in all but one age demo (50-64YOs, 46/47), and has an 11-point lead among independents, 49/38.  Among those neutral about the Tea Party movement, he holds a 24-point lead, 56/32.  The one worrisome demographic is those who have already cast ballots in early voting; he narrowly trails Schrader, 46/47.  Among likely voters yet to cast their ballots, he leads 51/41, the same percentage as the overall poll.

Obviously, Bruun needs to push turnout, and those interested can visit his website to discover how they can help.  If Republicans take this one by a wide margin in a blue state like Oregon, it’s hard to imagine where Democrats can successfully build a firewall.


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129 seats. You read it here first.

Akzed on October 21, 2010 at 3:52 PM

Mmmm…harburger.

Apologetic California on October 21, 2010 at 3:52 PM

Beavers!

Mr. Joe on October 21, 2010 at 3:52 PM

Ducks!

Mr. Joe on October 21, 2010 at 3:53 PM

no.safe.seats.

http://www.nosafeseats.com

/

ted c on October 21, 2010 at 3:54 PM

They need a firewall the size of the Hoover Dam and they cannot build one that big this close to election day.

ny59giants on October 21, 2010 at 3:54 PM

Bruuuuuuuuuuun!

Abby Adams on October 21, 2010 at 3:54 PM

129 seats. You read it here first.

Akzed on October 21, 2010 at 3:52 PM

Not sure if I would even go that far. I will say north of 55 though. Axelrod mentions some upsets to happen, and I really don’t think he could about Dem upset wins.

I will say this, no GOP incumbent will lose. I say both Cao and D’jou win

ConservativePartyNow on October 21, 2010 at 3:56 PM

They need a firewall the size of the Hoover Dam and they cannot build one that big this close to election day.

ny59giants on October 21, 2010 at 3:54 PM

not with union help they can’t that’s for sure.

ted c on October 21, 2010 at 3:56 PM

Republican challenger Scott Bruun edges Democratic incumbent Kurt Schrader 51% to 41%

If that margin is “edging” an opponent, I can only hope that in my own IL-14 CD, Hultgren edges Foster and that Kirk edges Alexi the mob banker statewide.

jwolf on October 21, 2010 at 3:57 PM

Hey it it wasn’t for all the dirty hippies I would totally live in OR.

The Expert Knows
http://theexpertsblog.blogspot.com

HotAirExpert on October 21, 2010 at 3:57 PM

Mr. Joe, it’s Beavers :) !

I live in OR District 5. I voted against our current bum. He’s running ads about how he didn’t vote for TARP and Bruun will take away the old people’s SS. He wasn’t even in Congress when TARP was passed and like all GOP plans for partial privatization, Scott’s wouldn’t affect the over-50 crowd.

I already voted for Scott. Sent in my ballot yesterday. Except for the hard left, of which there are plenty throughout Oregon, pretty much all Oregonians have had it with the Democrats. And the right is way more fired up than the left.

The third Democrat meme, while they tell us that we have plans to destroy Social Security, is that the GoP has no plans, only general beliefs. So while the people hear one candidate saying that the GoP has no ideas, they hear the GoP candidate laying out plans to cut spending, reign in the debt, rescue Social Security from disaster, etc. Makes for great comedy, I just hope enough voters are paying attention and mailing in their ballot in this all absentee voting state.

PastorJon on October 21, 2010 at 3:59 PM

HotAirExpert on October 21, 2010 at 3:57 PM

Oregon is a wonderful place — east of the Cascades. I have a lot of relatives there. My very leftwing sister, on the other hand, lives in Portland.

jwolf on October 21, 2010 at 3:59 PM

And the ad I am seeing RIGHT NOW on THIS page is smear and fear ad by the Dems against Scott. I’m here in Oregon and the scare tactics the left are using to attack him are shameful.

flyfishingdad on October 21, 2010 at 4:02 PM

I see an ocean of RED as far as the eyes can see,
with Mother of All Waves being created,ever-sweep
ing nearer to ObamaLand,then flowing towards Barneys
house,and sweeping Pelosi out on her fat *ss!!!!!!!!
=====================================================

Prism ” See Forever Eyes ”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrvkcgU15WI

canopfor on October 21, 2010 at 4:02 PM

Party like it’s 1773…

right2bright on October 21, 2010 at 4:02 PM

Which one’s Harbinger?

(kidding)

Bat Chain Puller on October 21, 2010 at 4:03 PM

Looks like no one is safe.

SlaveDog on October 21, 2010 at 4:04 PM

Ducks!

Mr. Joe on October 21, 2010 at 3:53 PM

Ducks will slaughter UCLA tonight =)

Yes. The Big Red wave has come to Oregon.

Having no jobs, and a state government that spends faster it can collect will do that.

I think we will take the Governors Office as well. Chris Dudley signs outnumber the Kitzhaber signs almost 5 to 1 in Multnomah County. The outlier counties are more like 9 to 1.

portlandon on October 21, 2010 at 4:05 PM

Give me a call when Earl Blumenauer is down 10. THAT would be the sign of doom for the Dems in Oregon.

fiatboomer on October 21, 2010 at 4:06 PM

Except for the hard left, of which there are plenty throughout Oregon, pretty much all Oregonians have had it with the Democrats. And the right is way more fired up than the left.-PastorJon

Unfortunately that is most of Eugene, Ashland, and the dominant force that does all the statewide deciding, Portland.

We are most likely going to be stuck with a lefty governor again, and a lefty senator. Definition of insanity, doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results…that’s the left in a NUTshell.

flyfishingdad on October 21, 2010 at 4:06 PM

Slightly o/t, but does anyone know of a link to a national election night scorecard (PDF, excel, etc.) we can download & print for keeping track on the 2nd? I’ve invited a few friends over for watching the returns, and it’d be nice to check off the races as they’re called.

Thanks.

LooseCannon on October 21, 2010 at 4:07 PM

Hey HOTAIR, you really need better filters on the ads that can be run on your website. I’m sick of seeing anti-conservative ads on the page. Almost everytime I refresh one of your ad locations has a Dem ad against Scott Bruun.

flyfishingdad on October 21, 2010 at 4:09 PM

They can build a firewall around Pelosi’s seat.

GOP – 434. Jackass Party – 1.

NoDonkey on October 21, 2010 at 4:10 PM

DUCKS!
I live in OR 5. Schrader’s commercials are sickening. However we have a mail in vote thing and ballots have been out for a little over a week. There might be a red wave but it would have to be enormous. The libs in this state are the definition of elite and they know whats best, if there is a way to influence the outcome, they will do it.

ORconservative on October 21, 2010 at 4:11 PM

Oregon? This is a poll I’ll be first to say I don’t believe even with “my side” ahead. Oh, I’d love to be proven wrong .

Marcus on October 21, 2010 at 4:13 PM

Looks like no one is safe.

SlaveDog on October 21, 2010 at 4:04 PM

Nope

Schadenfreude on October 21, 2010 at 4:15 PM

200 seats or bust…

PatriotRider on October 21, 2010 at 4:15 PM

Not sure if I would even go that far. I will say north of 55 though. Axelrod mentions some upsets to happen, and I really don’t think he could about Dem upset wins.

I will say this, no GOP incumbent will lose. I say both Cao and D’jou win

ConservativePartyNow on October 21, 2010 at 3:56 PM

I don’t know much about Oregon politics, but RealClearPolitics rates OR-5 as a “tossup”. If the Republican has a 10-point lead, this race should at least “lean” Republican.

Makes me wonder about some of the other RCP “tossups”. In House races, RCP has 214 Safe R or Lean R, 179 Safe D or Lean D, and 42 Tossups. Republicans would only have to win 4 out of 42 Tossups to get the majority in the House. If a 10-point lead is a Tossup, Republicans should get quite a few of them, and possibly end up with 240 seats in the House.

Steve Z on October 21, 2010 at 4:16 PM

Beavers!

Mr. Joe on October 21, 2010 at 3:52 PM

Mr Joe:)
=======================================================

Primus – Wynona’s Big Brown Beaver

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYDfwUJzYQg&ob=av2e

canopfor on October 21, 2010 at 4:17 PM

RCP shows this district voted for Bush in 2004 and 2000, not that Oregon hasn’t degraded significantly since then.

theperfecteconomist on October 21, 2010 at 4:19 PM

Hey HOTAIR, you really need better filters on the ads that can be run on your website. I’m sick of seeing anti-conservative ads on the page. Almost everytime I refresh one of your ad locations has a Dem ad against Scott Bruun.
flyfishingdad on October 21, 2010 at 4:09 PM

Those I think are Google ads and random as to what you see. I’ve never seen that ad but I’m getting Orange Crist bombarded on ANY site. Fortunately Charlie might have spent his last dime and now Im happily being Rubio’d. And I live in Texas.

Marcus on October 21, 2010 at 4:21 PM

I could see this district being more conservative than others around Portland but there are still some looney tune lefty’s here and all idea of voter fraud aside, the liberals would have to stay home, not mail in their vote. We have a maryjane initiative on the ballot. Probably timed to get the Dems out to vote for the team.

ORconservative on October 21, 2010 at 4:22 PM

As of yesterday, Nate Silver has this district as a 62% chance of Democratic win.

Well within reach.

Abby Adams on October 21, 2010 at 4:25 PM

Schrader and Wu’s seats are harbingers of different kinds. If Schrader loses his seat by this much, it’s going to be part of a huge, huge night for Republicans across the nation. If Wu loses his seat at all, it’s going to be part of a wave of epic, massively historical proportions. Joseph Cao is probably going to keep his seat before David Wu loses his (using Cao as the most vulnerable GOP incumbent, not because he’s also Asian, I’d like to point out).

Red Cloud on October 21, 2010 at 4:28 PM

Abby Adams on October 21, 2010 at 4:25 PM

I’m not buying Silver as some kind of magic sage. He was the top prognosticator in 2008 because he’s a huge lib and it was a lib wave. Watch him be flustered on the night of the 2nd.

Red Cloud on October 21, 2010 at 4:29 PM

I’m sick of seeing anti-conservative ads on the page.

Really? Every time I see an ad like that, I click on it and smile about the fact that I just made a Democrat pay to fund virulent right-wing hate speech.

Sadly, most of the ads I get are for Republicans. I don’t click those: “Save your money, guys, I’m on your side.”

Fabozz on October 21, 2010 at 4:32 PM

Shrader is another one running from his ObamaCare vote I see. No mention whatever on his webpage so you know how the Google search for his vote went.

Marcus on October 21, 2010 at 4:33 PM

Red Cloud on October 21, 2010 at 4:29 PM

He is a huge lib, but he’s also really good at poll modeling/analysis. Currently his models are predicting a +50 GOP election on the 2nd. That’s well in line with many other prognosticators.

He’s fairly trusted for a reason.

Abby Adams on October 21, 2010 at 4:37 PM

I’m not buying Silver as some kind of magic sage. He was the top prognosticator in 2008 because he’s a huge lib and it was a lib wave. Watch him be flustered on the night of the 2nd.

Red Cloud on October 21, 2010 at 4:29 PM

Silver’s just a hardcore numbers guy, and he currently shows the GOP netting 50 seats and recognizes they could even win 70-80. He might root for the Dems, but at least he’s realistic about things.

theperfecteconomist on October 21, 2010 at 4:39 PM

I think we will take the Governors Office as well. Chris Dudley signs outnumber the Kitzhaber signs almost 5 to 1 in Multnomah County. The outlier counties are more like 9 to 1.

portlandon on October 21, 2010 at 4:05 PM

Come on! Don’t you miss Vera? :)

Lanceman on October 21, 2010 at 4:43 PM

How did I do that?

Lanceman on October 21, 2010 at 4:44 PM

It’s hard to cover Congressional races and give all 435 attention, simply because the effort in keeping up with the vast number of races would prove overwhelming.

We have a solution for you, a table with 125 vulnerable House Democrat incumbents, links to the Republican challengers, and all available polls. Adding in this Bruun poll, we project Republicans pick up 84 seats gross.
Stop by, pick some less well known Republican challengers off the list, and send them some money.

motionview on October 21, 2010 at 4:48 PM

Just a note about the Senate, we’re getting numerous RINOS winning in liberal states this year. I’ll be happy with whatever we get, but just please keep that fact in mind and don’t get disappointed.

2012-2014 is when a lot of conservative states that should have known better will be kicking out their Democrat Senators.

scotash on October 21, 2010 at 5:02 PM

I live in Or. 1 and their are MASSIVE signs for the GOP guy Rob Cornellius. David Wu ( communist ) has hardley any signs anywhere…. we shall see..

magic kingdom on October 21, 2010 at 5:06 PM

My God… did I really have that many spelling errors in my last post… sorry guys, I am running out the door.

magic kingdom on October 21, 2010 at 5:07 PM

Come on! Don’t you miss Vera? :)

Lanceman on October 21, 2010 at 4:43 PM

Bwaa haaa haaa!

You know, last week, a Bronze Statue of Vera Katz disappeared and her worshipers went crazy. The Mayor Sam Adams had to come out and let them know that the statue was taken in for cleaning, and to calm down.

I thought she looked pretty good with pigeon sh*t all over her.

portlandon on October 21, 2010 at 5:12 PM

I just sent my ballot in…with a vote for Bruun.

ConservativeOregonian on October 21, 2010 at 5:19 PM

129 seats. You read it here first.

Akzed on October 21, 2010 at 3:52 PM

Now that’s managing expectations! ;>

petunia on October 21, 2010 at 7:27 PM

You have no idea how happy this makes me. I’m in OR-3, but close enough to OR-5 to get inundated with that district’s ads. Shrader’s stuff makes the blood boil it’s so dishonest.

sockpuppetpolitic on October 21, 2010 at 8:24 PM