Q-poll puts Toomey up only 2 over Sestak

posted at 11:36 am on October 21, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Yesterday, I expressed considerable skepticism over a Muhlenberg College poll that showed Joe Sestak vaulting ten points in two weeks and into the lead over Pat Toomey for the US Senate seat in Pennsylvania.  Today, Quinnipiac shows Sestak gained five points in four weeks to get within two points of Toomey:

The race for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat is now a statistical dead heat with Republican Pat Toomey getting 48 percent of likely voters to 46 percent for Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 50 – 43 percent likely voter lead for Toomey, a former congressman, in a September 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Toomey is beating Sestak 88 – 8 percent among Republicans and 56 – 35 percent among independent voters. But Sestak is winning 89 – 7 percent among Democrats. Thirteen percent of Toomey’s voters and 9 percent of Sestak backers say they might change their mind before Election Day. The 5 percent of undecided voters includes 9 percent of independent voters.

“Pennsylvania is a blue state and Democrats there have begun to come home,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “They are more engaged than they were earlier in the race. This is not unusual, especially in off-year elections. Democrats often engage later in the campaign than do Republicans. The political environment is more favorable now for them, as evidenced by President Barack Obama’s improved, but still decidedly negative, job approval rating.”

What kind of registration advantage do Democrats have in Pennsylvania? It’s pretty significant, according to this table of reported figures at HuffPo.  Democrats account for 50.9% of all registered voters in Pennsylvania, while Republicans only come to 36.9%, a gap of 14 points.  That’s wider than the gap in California.  Republicans and independents put together only account for 49.1%, and even though independents are breaking sharply to the GOP, Toomey has to outperform the partisan gap to win the seat.

There is, however, good news in the poll as well.  By a 51/43 majority, Pennsylvania voters want their next Senator to oppose the Obama agenda.  A plurality of 45/38 want Republicans to control the Senate.  In order to get either of those, Pennsylvanians have to vote for Toomey over Sestak, who as a Congressman was a rubber stamp for the Nancy Pelos/Obama agenda.

And, as Jim Geraghty points out, only 14% of Pennsylvanians think the economy is improving.  In this cycle, those voters may turn out, but the 35% who think it’s getting worse will be more likely to show up.


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There is no doubt that this Senate seat is going to be a photo finish.

hawkman on October 21, 2010 at 11:38 AM

11.2.10 just can’t get here quick enough!

Oink on October 21, 2010 at 11:39 AM

Maybe Sestak should have taken that job Obama offered?

Herb on October 21, 2010 at 11:40 AM

I’ll take up by two…

sandee on October 21, 2010 at 11:43 AM

Unbelievable. Toomey should be walking away with this. How masochistic are northeastern voters? I just don’t get it.

Caiwyn on October 21, 2010 at 11:43 AM

I’m wondering if this might have anything to do with the fact that Christine O’Donnell’s ads air in parts of Pennsylvania (including the Democratic Philadelphia markets).

Democrats (and indys?) being turned off by O’Donnell?

Abby Adams on October 21, 2010 at 11:45 AM

Last I checked, 2 points wins. I’ll take it.

kevinkristy on October 21, 2010 at 11:45 AM

Other than the ~30% hard core, kool aid sucking party registrants, just how many democrats will line up to say “MORE PLEASE”?

This election is going to tell us more about the spirit and viability of this nation than words can.

bloviator on October 21, 2010 at 11:46 AM

Doesn’t look like Republicans will take the Senate, but at least the money spending House will be neutered.

rickyricardo on October 21, 2010 at 11:47 AM

Unbelievable. Toomey should be walking away with this. How masochistic are northeastern voters? I just don’t get it.

Caiwyn on October 21, 2010 at 11:43 AM

They’ve been brainwashed for decades that democrats are the “working man’s friend” and Republicans are their enemy. In reality, the opposite is true.

A lot are waking up, but not fast enough. It’ll take years to undo the propaganda.

darwin on October 21, 2010 at 11:47 AM

Need more than 2% to overcome the fraud and voter intimidation. Democrats cheat to win.

NaCly dog on October 21, 2010 at 11:48 AM

The fact that the pollster from Quinniapiac,says what he does in the last sentences makes me wonder”.The political environment is more favorable for them now ” meaning the Dems. seems unlikely, still these are three polls in a roll showing Toomey losing speed so we shall see.

sandee on October 21, 2010 at 11:48 AM

Abby Adams on October 21, 2010 at 11:45 AM

More:

O’Donnell now regrets the “I am not a witch” ad.
http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/politics/Christine-ODonnell-Regrets-Im-Not-a-Witch-Ad–105433948.html

From the Philly NBC.

Abby Adams on October 21, 2010 at 11:48 AM

TCJ has it today at Toomey 50%; Sestak 45%.

technopeasant on October 21, 2010 at 11:48 AM

All one has to do is go to Allentown, PA and observe for 5 minutes…..you would be in awe that Toomey is even in the ballgame.

If you want to see the future of the USA under another 12 years of progressive government, look to Allentown.

rickyricardo on October 21, 2010 at 11:49 AM

2% is a landslide.

ted c on October 21, 2010 at 11:49 AM

Q – poll?
How ’bout an R – poll?

Lanceman on October 21, 2010 at 11:52 AM

How is this possible?

Is PA that nutty?

mankai on October 21, 2010 at 11:54 AM

Unbelievable. It’s a Q poll, the ones who have never been rooted in actuality. The Q poll was created by a liberal university, for liberals, by liberals. I don’t believe it for a second. I suspect that all the polling this year is going to be off by a bunch. No matter what the opinion, you have to have motivated people to vote.

I already voted in early voting. I couldn’t wait. I doubt the Dems are saying the same thing.

Tennman on October 21, 2010 at 11:55 AM

Come on people….man up.
Don’t go to pieces over one silly little poll.
Toomey is taking it hands down.
Don’t be suckers.
Democrats are not surging anywhere.

NeoKong on October 21, 2010 at 11:55 AM

Abby Adams on October 21, 2010 at 11:48 AM

I hated it five seconds in and knew it was an awful idea.

Coons is a MARXIST. That’s where should have started and ended.

mankai on October 21, 2010 at 11:55 AM

Toomey is winning independents by 20% and only winning the race by 2%? They honestly believe the Democrats will turnout in numbers that much higher than Republicans this year?

I also doubt the 89% hold rate for Sestak on Democrats. There are tons of DINOs in Western PA who will vote for Tooomey or just not show up.

Sestak is going to have to get massive turnout and win big in the Phi and the counties touching it to win. I don’t see it happening – especially because Republicans are actually leading in the house races in the burbs.

This one isn’t in the bank yet, but I have my doubts about this polling.

forest on October 21, 2010 at 11:56 AM

I’m wondering if this might have anything to do with the fact that Christine O’Donnell’s ads air in parts of Pennsylvania (including the Democratic Philadelphia markets).

Democrats (and indys?) being turned off by O’Donnell?

Abby Adams on October 21, 2010 at 11:45 AM

More:

O’Donnell now regrets the “I am not a witch” ad.
http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/politics/Christine-ODonnell-Regrets-Im-Not-a-Witch-Ad–105433948.html

From the Philly NBC.

Abby Adams on October 21, 2010 at 11:48 AM

Really? Do we have to turn every freaking thread into an O’Donnell thread?

Sheesh.

fossten on October 21, 2010 at 11:56 AM

Anyone who watched that debate last night and is still considering voting for Sestak … wasn’t listening.

It’s really a no-brainer.

Lynn B. on October 21, 2010 at 11:58 AM

Polls always find a way to “tighten” weeks before an election. Every cycle.

Denverslim on October 21, 2010 at 11:58 AM

Is PA that nutty?

mankai on October 21, 2010 at 11:54 AM

Murtha.
Specter.

justltl on October 21, 2010 at 12:01 PM

fossten on October 21, 2010 at 11:56 AM

I’m sorry… I wasn’t trying to turn this into an entire O’Donnell thread. I was just trying to look at different possibilities of why the PA senate race seems to have tightened.

I was looking at it more as: Democrats in Philly, etc. are tuned in and turned off by Republicans, namely O’Donnell whose ads they have watched, and who is despised by libs everywhere through the beatdown she’s taken from the national media. It could have been any despised Republican. It just happened to be CO’D.

Abby Adams on October 21, 2010 at 12:04 PM

hmmmmm…with 2 percent, the Philly machine comes into play…isn’t that where the register voters out number the population.

r keller on October 21, 2010 at 12:05 PM

I’m still nervous over the fact that in 2008 52% of the voters proved themselves to be morons.

justltl on October 21, 2010 at 12:07 PM

Pennsylvania has a huge Dem registration advantage but it is a different Dem than you’ll find in CA. I was born and have roots upstate though I now live in the Philly burb area. Most parts of the state you will find the Dems who still have pictures of Kennedy in the living room with a candle burning in homage. There is plenty of opposition to this administration nonetheless. Once these Dems tune in to discover Sestak is a rubberstamp this surge is going to lose steam.

msmveritas on October 21, 2010 at 12:07 PM

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69K2B920101021

http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20101021/NEWS02/10210369/O-Donnell-Coons-hit-rewind-in-debate

Damned dirty RINOs…er scratch that

Even the Tea Party Express, the Sacramento-based national organization that launched a well-financed, late-stage advertising campaign which helped O’Donnell win her primary race, has dialed back its financial support for her.

Documents filed with the Federal Election Commission show that between O’Donnell’s September 14 primary victory and mid-October, the Tea Party Express paid for around $11,000 in e-mail blasts and radio ads supporting her. By comparison, records show the group spent more than $64,000 in support of Angle during that period. (Tea Party Express representatives did not respond to messages requesting comment.)

Bradky on October 21, 2010 at 12:07 PM

I’m wondering if this might have anything to do with the fact that Christine O’Donnell’s ads air in parts of Pennsylvania (including the Democratic Philadelphia markets).

Democrats (and indys?) being turned off by O’Donnell?

Abby Adams on October 21, 2010 at 11:45 AM

Could be.

That’s something the O’Donnell supporters on this board never got.

My opposition to O’Donnell wasn’t based on her views, nor on her inability to win. I would have been happy to support a principled, intelligent conservative over Mike Castle, even if said conservative had no chance to win in Delaware.

My opposition to O’Donnell was based on the damage she does to the conservative brand, particularly the social conservative brand.

But the O’Donnell supporters don’t think that far ahead. After all, why think far ahead when you are having so much fun “RINO-hunting”. Checkers players.

Chess > Checkers.

Dreadnought on October 21, 2010 at 12:08 PM

As of yesterday, Rasmussen still had PA as Solid GOP. When that changes, then I’ll worry…

joejm65 on October 21, 2010 at 12:08 PM

All one has to do is go to Allentown, PA and observe for 5 minutes…..you would be in awe that Toomey is even in the ballgame.

Allentown? What about Philly? A Republican needs big majorities elsewhere to outnumber the millions of brain-dead liberals in Philly.

The keys to this election are the suburbs north of Philly, and the Susquehanna Valley (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre/Hazleton) area. There are several Dem House members in serious trouble in those areas (Murphy, Carney, Kanjorski, and Sestak’s House seat), and if Republican and Indie voters there can be persuaded to vote for Toomey while throwing out the House “bums”, Toomey will win.

This is a Q-poll, and they tend to lean left of actual results. It would be interesting to see the next Rasmussen or SUSA poll on PA before believing that Sestak is surging.

PA is a big state, and there are heavily-populated areas full of knee-jerk liberals (Philly, Pittsburgh, Erie) whose votes have to be overcome by more-scattered conservative votes in less densely-populated areas, meaning that Toomey needs to “cover more ground” than Sestak to win.

Steve Z on October 21, 2010 at 12:10 PM

Pennsylvania has a huge Dem registration advantage but it is a different Dem than you’ll find in CA. I was born and have roots upstate though I now live in the Philly burb area. Most parts of the state you will find the Dems who still have pictures of Kennedy in the living room with a candle burning in homage. There is plenty of opposition to this administration nonetheless. Once these Dems tune in to discover Sestak is a rubberstamp this surge is going to lose steam.

msmveritas on October 21, 2010 at 12:07 PM

Exactly. Many are ethnic Catholics who are socially conservative. They vote for Dems out of sheer habit, or because they are turned off by “Country Club Republicans”.

Dreadnought on October 21, 2010 at 12:11 PM

A critical area is always the purple Philly suburbs, where high taxes can be an issues with the middle and upper middle class voters. This is also the time of the year that PA Blue Cross is sending out the 2011 rate notices (mine went up $150 a month; imagine what family coverage increases are like).

The Philly suburbs will also have three strong GOP House contenders: Gerlach, who survived 2006 and 2008, running against a no-name. Meehan, the former DA of Delaware County and former US Attorney, running against a no-name for Sestak’s old seat, and Mike Fitzpatrick, running to get the Bucks County seat back from Patrick Murphy that he lost in 2006.

Wethal on October 21, 2010 at 12:13 PM

isn’t Pennsylvania the state where the PUMAs said they would carry McCain over the finish line?

take nothing for granted. call your core supporters & poll worker-people again. phone bank.

we all have to do this together.

kelley in virginia on October 21, 2010 at 12:15 PM

My opposition to O’Donnell was based on the damage she does to the conservative brand, particularly the social conservative brand.

Dreadnought on October 21, 2010 at 12:08 PM

Although one could argue that Castle would have been more detrimental to the conservative “brand” than O’Donnell ever could be.

Abby Adams on October 21, 2010 at 12:15 PM

Toomey is winning independents by 20% and only winning the race by 2%? They honestly believe the Democrats will turnout in numbers that much higher than Republicans this year?

I also doubt the 89% hold rate for Sestak on Democrats. There are tons of DINOs in Western PA who will vote for Tooomey or just not show up.

Sestak is going to have to get massive turnout and win big in the Phi and the counties touching it to win. I don’t see it happening – especially because Republicans are actually leading in the house races in the burbs.

This one isn’t in the bank yet, but I have my doubts about this polling.

forest on October 21, 2010 at 11:56 AM

Ding, ding, ding.

They don’t provide weightings as near as I can tell, but just by running some numbers their results work if you assume the Democrats will have the same turnout advantage they had in 2008. A ridiculous number of polls are doing that lately, almost like the election is drawing near and it’s time for the “Dems have the big mo and are closing fast” headlines or something.

Oh, and Muhlenwhoever had Toomey gain 3 pts in one night in its tracking polls.

jarodea on October 21, 2010 at 12:15 PM

Why is it, time and time again, that when I click onto Youtube, following up on a Conservative clip, does it ALWAYS show 320-350 views? (with comments blocked)…

Youtube, grow some balls and be fair with your practices, or we will go elsewhere!

viviliberoomuori on October 21, 2010 at 12:16 PM

Don’t get complacent, guys! This just shows you that the democrats are like a cancer that’s hard to get rid of and we must make sure to vote no matter what. Don’t take anything for granted. Take it from someone who lives in the District of Columbia which has been monopolized by liberal democrats forever – look at how destructive and corrosive a single party dominance can do to an area – look at Baltimore and its home state, philadelphia and PA, Detroit and Michigan, Chicago, and IL., and so on and so on. So any chance of voting them out is dicey, especially when they’ve corrupted the system and installed themselves in there as career politicians. This has been the way it’s been for the past 100 years so while it’s encouraging that we’ve come this far, we’re not there yet.

mozalf on October 21, 2010 at 12:18 PM

Ties will go to the GOP this year.

SlaveDog on October 21, 2010 at 12:18 PM

My opposition to O’Donnell was based on the damage she does to the conservative brand, particularly the social conservative brand.

Dreadnought on October 21, 2010 at 12:08 PM

And there’s also the fact that O’Donnell’s been sucking donation money away from the conservative candidates who actually have a realistic chance to win. Toomey could really use some of that $3 million right about now.

Jon0815 on October 21, 2010 at 12:25 PM

Why is it, time and time again, that when I click onto Youtube, following up on a Conservative clip, does it ALWAYS show 320-350 views? (with comments blocked)…

Youtube, grow some balls and be fair with your practices, or we will go elsewhere!

viviliberoomuori on October 21, 2010 at 12:16 PM

It may be that the poster (probably a conservative) didn’t like some of the snark in the comments and blocked them.
Then again the black helicopter hovering out back could be emitting blocking rays…

Bradky on October 21, 2010 at 12:28 PM

Anyone who watched that debate last night and is still considering voting for Sestak … wasn’t listening.

Lynn B. on October 21, 2010 at 11:58 AM

I didn’t see the debate, but I saw the clip this morning where George Stephanopolos asked Toomey if he thought Sarah Palin was qualified to be President.

Toomey (and Rubio yesterday) are to be commended for handling such ridiculous questions with politeness and grace. If that was me, I would have given George an incredulous look and asked him WTF that has to do with anything.

UltimateBob on October 21, 2010 at 12:28 PM

My opposition to O’Donnell was based on the damage she does to the conservative brand, particularly the social conservative brand.

Dreadnought on October 21, 2010 at 12:08 PM

Although one could argue that Castle would have been more detrimental to the conservative “brand” than O’Donnell ever could be.

Abby Adams on October 21, 2010 at 12:15 PM

Christine O’Donnell is not the one damaging the “conservative brand.” It’s the press, the Delaware GOP, and her other detractors who are trying to reduce her credibility to zero, while ignoring the sheer incompetence of her opponent.

UltimateBob on October 21, 2010 at 12:32 PM

And there’s also the fact that O’Donnell’s been sucking donation money away from the conservative candidates who actually have a realistic chance to win. Toomey could really use some of that $3 million right about now.

Jon0815 on October 21, 2010 at 12:25 PM

Exactly. There’s Toomey, who is a great candidate. And there’s good, conservative candidates in blue districts running competitive races for the House, on a shoestring.

Some of that cash that was wasted on O’Donnell’s “moneybomb” would be nice right now.

Dreadnought on October 21, 2010 at 12:41 PM

This should be an easy question for those in PA that aren’t members of SEIU, teacher’s union, AFL-CIO,…union, to answer.

Do I have a job now? Will continue to have a job in the future?

Vote accordingly.

belad on October 21, 2010 at 12:41 PM

… George Stephanopolos asked Toomey if he thought Sarah Palin was qualified to be President….

UltimateBob on October 21, 2010 at 12:28 PM

He should have asked what relevance was that to PA senate race and whether Stuff’n Envelopes was qualified to be asking pertinent debate questions.

belad on October 21, 2010 at 12:47 PM

Pennsylvania will be an early indicator of how election night is going to go.

SouthernGent on October 21, 2010 at 12:49 PM

Geraghty has an update:

Everyone Worried About Pat Toomey’s Lead Should Read This

It’s an email from one of his longtime “number cruncher” readers saying the only thing that’s really changed in the Quinnipiac poll is their turnout model. The reader thinks Toomey will win by about 10 points.

Missy on October 21, 2010 at 1:06 PM

I didn’t see the debate, but I saw the clip this morning where George Stephanopolos asked Toomey if he thought Sarah Palin was qualified to be President.

***

UltimateBob on October 21, 2010 at 12:28 PM

Maybe it would dig them in a hole, but I love to see the answer to this question to be something along the lines of this:

“I’m not aware that she’s running for president, so why should I respond. What I will say is that she was much more qualified for the position she ran for in 2008 than Barack Obama was in that same campaign.

BuckeyeSam on October 21, 2010 at 1:18 PM

Geraghty has an update:

Everyone Worried About Pat Toomey’s Lead Should Read This

It’s an email from one of his longtime “number cruncher” readers saying the only thing that’s really changed in the Quinnipiac poll is their turnout model. The reader thinks Toomey will win by about 10 points.

Missy on October 21, 2010 at 1:06 PM

As I noted above as well. Pat Caddell was saying the same thing on a Ricochet pod cast last week. He doesn’t buy most of the “dems coming back” polls since the turnout models are getting so absurdly pro-democrat when if anything recent news indicates the old turnout models weren’t pro-republican enough.

And there’s also the fact that O’Donnell’s been sucking donation money away from the conservative candidates who actually have a realistic chance to win. Toomey could really use some of that $3 million right about now.

Jon0815 on October 21, 2010 at 12:25 PM

Hey now, if only the GOP would spend a little more money on her she’d overcome that 18pt unchanging deficit in no time flat.

More seriously, now that early voting is going on in Florida maybe the GOP could think about moving some of that $6 million FL reserve they’ve been sitting on. I read somewhere recently that the dems are going to spend more on Setak than anyone else this cycle.

jarodea on October 21, 2010 at 1:24 PM

Unbelievable. Toomey should be walking away with this. How masochistic are northeastern, Pittsburgh, Philadephia, and inner-city Harrisburg voters? I just don’t get it.

FIFY

DethMetalCookieMonst on October 21, 2010 at 1:26 PM

Missy on October 21, 2010 at 1:06 PM

Thanks..I was beginning to worry..:)

Dire Straits on October 21, 2010 at 1:27 PM

Ed,

I think Toomey’s going to end up winning, but this theory from both the left and the right that polling by so-called objective sources (let’s use Muhlenberg here as the example) is politically motivated until the final poll or two is flat-out ludicrous. I say this because although I don’t work for a pollster, I work in market research, so I have a better idea than most who post here on this issue.

Once again, if so-called objective polling was politically motivated, these pollsters would soon lose their credibility, and their livelihood, and they would go out of business. Of course both Republicans and Democrats hire pollsters to help them gauge the public mood, and how to position themselves to the electorate. No news source is relying on these polls when reporting on political races.

Have you ever met someone who works for a pollster, and admits off-the-record that their polls are tainted, biased, etc.? Or is this like professional wrestling, where everyone has a code that they can’t say the matches are fixed, when they are?

Ed, I may not agree with your positions all the time, but I respected your intellect. I understand there’s posters on Hot Air (and Daily Kos, Huffington Post, etc.) who complain about biased polling, but that’s to be expected from people who don’t know their @ss from a hole in the ground. But when one of the primary drivers of Hot Air starts talking this way/thinking this way, you lose a lot of credibility.

asc85 on October 21, 2010 at 1:27 PM

I hated it five seconds in and knew it was an awful idea.

Coons is a MARXIST. That’s where should have started and ended.

mankai on October 21, 2010 at 11:55 AM

^this

DethMetalCookieMonst on October 21, 2010 at 1:29 PM

Hey, it is raining,so I guess that must be O’Donnell’s fault too – Toomey will win or lose on his own merit – but if anyone is looking to blame someone else, just in case he loses, go ahead and play into the Democrats hands and blame O’Donnell. You’d be doing exactly what they want you to do. I think the poll is wrong and that Toomey is probably several points ahead – figures don’t lie but liars figure, and in my opinion many of these polls are liars figuring to boost Democrat moral.

Done That on October 21, 2010 at 1:42 PM

Thanks..I was beginning to worry..:)

Dire Straits on October 21, 2010 at 1:27 PM

You’re welcome. This is one race I’m not particularly worried about! :)

Missy on October 21, 2010 at 1:44 PM

But when one of the primary drivers of Hot Air starts talking this way/thinking this way, you lose a lot of credibility.

asc85 on October 21, 2010 at 1:27 PM

By my count Ed has written many such posts about biased polling. So you don’t think it’s even within the realm of possibility that, say, party ID could be manipulated in certain polls to favor a preferred candidate or party? No thumbs on the scale, ever? That seems difficult to believe.

Missy on October 21, 2010 at 1:48 PM

The Quinnipiac poll is not a professional polling group actually paid by customers to do research, but a group affiliated with a college. It strongly favors Democrats, since its director, Maurice Carroll, was a reporter for The New York Times and the New York Daily News and is a classic knee-jerk liberal.

They want to encourage Democrats to vote and to suppress Republican turnout. The institute’s attitude is that the Democrat has to be close even when he isn’t. Their ideal polling result is “too close to call.” As one of their people said last April:

“A Toomey-Specter race could continue swinging back and forth until November because most voters won’t begin to focus on it until after Labor Day,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.”

That’s what Qunnipiac wants the numbers to show.

Emperor Norton on October 21, 2010 at 1:53 PM

Delaware and Philly share the same media market. Its no secret that the Philly suburbs are a huge a huge swing vote area. O’Donnell isnt just sucking energy and money, she is deflating moderate support in the Philly area.

This isnt shocking to me. Its more shocking to me that conservatives assume that conservatives will win Blue states if they are nominated, as if the only they dont win is some RINO establishment conspiracy. No, they lose because there arenttht many conservatives in Blue state. Period.

Penn is tough. Philly and Pitt are huge corrupt Dem bastions. Philly burbs and Pitt- Appalachia are full of wish washy moderates.

I asked people to bear down and donate yesterday, but it easier for people to attack pollsters. This is a nail biter. Stop RINO hunting and start Dem hunting.

swamp_yankee on October 21, 2010 at 2:00 PM

“Pennsylvania is a blue state and Democrats there have begun to come home,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

This is the same slogan that Democrats have put out there since 1968, when disillusioned Democrats were said to be “coming home” to Hubert Humphrey. He lost.

“They are more engaged than they were earlier in the race. This is not unusual, especially in off-year elections. Democrats often engage later in the campaign than do Republicans. The political environment is more favorable now for them, as evidenced by President Barack Obama’s improved, but still decidedly negative, job approval rating.”

Nonsense, just when Obama hits new quarterly low in Gallup poll.

Emperor Norton on October 21, 2010 at 2:09 PM

DethMetalCookieMonst on October 21, 2010 at 1:26 PM

Just an FYI, Pittsburgh isn’t a Northeastern city. It’s an Appalachian/Ohio Valley city and the culture and the voting patterns reflect it. It’s pretty darned conservative as far as major metros go, and I don’t expect Sestak to get much more than 50% in Allegheny County, and Toomey will get a majority of the area if you county suburbs outside the county line.

forest on October 21, 2010 at 2:39 PM

I have two nephews and a brother-in-law who work in construction and still live back in PA. They’re all out of work. Things are pretty freakin’ bleak back there. I’m shocked that Sestak is even in the race at all.

olesparkie on October 21, 2010 at 3:12 PM

By my count Ed has written many such posts about biased polling. So you don’t think it’s even within the realm of possibility that, say, party ID could be manipulated in certain polls to favor a preferred candidate or party? No thumbs on the scale, ever? That seems difficult to believe.

Missy on October 21, 2010 at 1:48 PM

Nope. No thumbs on the scale.

If one wants to argue that the methodology is shoddy, and that’s why the results appear “off,” I’ll agree that that is possible.

No one’s biasing polls. You’d be fired. It cuts to the credibility of their organization. If a pollster isn’t credible, who would do business with them? Heck, I wouldn’t even have to collect data…I could just sit in my house and make the stuff up. The economic incentive to be accurate is there.

The Quinnipiac poll is not a professional polling group actually paid by customers to do research, but a group affiliated with a college. It strongly favors Democrats, since its director, Maurice Carroll, was a reporter for The New York Times and the New York Daily News and is a classic knee-jerk liberal.

They want to encourage Democrats to vote and to suppress Republican turnout. The institute’s attitude is that the Democrat has to be close even when he isn’t. Their ideal polling result is “too close to call.”

Emperor Norton on October 21, 2010 at 1:53 PM

This poster illustrates my point. No facts, other than the guy wrote for the New York Times. That’s all you got? You’re so certain he’s suppressing Republican turnout? It’s paranoia and stupidity at its finest.

asc85 on October 21, 2010 at 6:47 PM

My mom and I talked about this. Mom is worried but I am not. I told her we’ve got this one in the bag…she said “Are you sure?” I replied ” I know it.”

To my fellow Pennsys, please get out and vote. To the rest of y’all, please donate whatever you can. This win needs to happen.

The Greatest State can be a little odd in it’s choices but as others have commented there’s a lot of “dyed-in-the-wool” here.

Prayers welcome. Also good wishes. : )

WaltzingMtilda on October 21, 2010 at 10:36 PM

Yeah, and according to the Q poll the day before the Connecticut primaries, the governors race was going to be Ned LaMont vs. the jackass Lt. Governor…

Pay them no mind.

SuperCool on October 21, 2010 at 11:50 PM