Damn: Barney Frank 49, Sean Bielat 37

posted at 6:43 pm on October 21, 2010 by Allahpundit

Not a disastrous poll — there are still 12 percent undecided — but after news broke about Frank having to loan himself money, I was hoping/thinking it’d be within single digits. Not yet, and time’s running out:

“Barney Frank is holding a 12-point lead, and in a tough election year for Democrats that’s a comfortable lead going into the final two weeks of the election,” Eyewitness News political analyst Joe Fleming said. “It all depends on if Sean Bielat can grab some momentum to close that gap.”…

Both men are doing well among members of their respective parties, with Frank backed by 80 percent of Democrats and Bielat by 92 percent of Republicans. “Barney’s got a real strong base there, and that’s really propelling him right now” in the heavily Democratic 4th, Fleming said.

Among independents, Bielat is beating Frank by 44 percent to 35 percent, with another 17 percent still undecided. But Bielat will need to win unaffiliated voters by a much bigger margin in order to defeat Frank, Fleming said…

WPRI has offered to host a prime-time debate between Frank and Bielat focused on issues of concern to voters in Bristol County, Mass. Both campaigns originally agreed in principle to participate, but Frank’s campaign later changed its mind, citing scheduling issues.

The killer demographic: As usual, it’s the gender gap. Bielat’s actually beating Frank among men, 45.2/42.6; among women he trails … 54.7 to 30.2. Unless he can put a giant dent in that in the next 12 days, I don’t know how he gets to 51 percent.

Here’s the new Bielat ad from Ladd “Dale Peterson” Ehlinger; Ace was in the studio while it was being filmed, but that’s not him playing Barney — or so he claims. The concept is cute, but I’m not sure how much it does to advance the ball, especially with women. The middle section, with dancing and Frank soundbites and text rushing by, is hard to keep track of.


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I thought I’d heard any incumbent who is polling anything under 50 in a two person race is vulnerable. Remember, Frank is used to getting 70 percent or more of the vote.

Marcus on October 21, 2010 at 7:48 PM

Ace doesn’t believe the poll.

Cindy Munford on October 21, 2010 at 7:42 PM

Ace has done work for the Bielat campaign. I think he’s a bit too emotionally involved to think clearly.

I donated to Bielat and I think he’ll win. But this poll is probably pretty close to reality. If you have a 10-12 point GOP enthusiasm gap, Bielat wins.

lorien1973 on October 21, 2010 at 7:51 PM

Worst ad evah, with this ad Bielat will turn off whatever voters he could have gotten in Brookline and Newton which he needs to be successful.

I heard he flew in some hot shot film maker to do it, what a jerk.

Ricki on October 21, 2010 at 7:37 PM

He was never going to get any votes in Newton/Brookline. That is not the swing in the Fourth.

swamp_yankee on October 21, 2010 at 7:52 PM

I think he’s a bit too emotionally involved to think clearly. lorien1973 on October 21, 2010 at 7:51 PM

Yes, I have seen his little dialogues with Mr. Bielat and the only thing I can say is that Mr. Rubio must be thrilled he’s been replaced.

Cindy Munford on October 21, 2010 at 7:53 PM

Deeep breaths AP, in and out
…easy does it…

we are in the home stretch and this is the part where ‘depress turnout’ polls and chatter get thrown at us.

Sean is gonna win, lots and lots of up and comers are gonna win

I called an 82 net gain for GOP in the AceHQ poll, I’d like to take over that but I don’t wanna seem greedy and tempt fate :0>

don’t doubt AP, we told ya Scott Brown would win and so will Sean Bielat

it’s gonna be a beautiful thing

ginaswo on October 21, 2010 at 7:55 PM

pedestrian on October 21, 2010 at 7:45 PM

I understand the statistics, but I also understand sexism and prejudiced generalizations too. Please, reread for yourself:

But it seems to be stupider in one sex than another. If only women could vote, we would be a communist nation by now. If only men could vote, we wouldn’t be in this economic mess that we are in. If you want proof, look at the gender gaps of all the Senate and House races this year and past elections.

Gabe on October 21, 2010 at 7:19 PM

Again, a generalization is made of one sex based on election statistics in one country. Women are “stupider.”

conservative pilgrim on October 21, 2010 at 7:55 PM

I donated to Bielat and I think he’ll win. But this poll is probably pretty close to reality. If you have a 10-12 point GOP enthusiasm gap, Bielat wins.

lorien1973 on October 21, 2010 at 7:51 PM

In all seriousness, do you really think Bielat will win?

conservative pilgrim on October 21, 2010 at 7:56 PM

The people of MA are STUPID.

csdeven on October 21, 2010 at 7:58 PM

At this point in time, I don’t believe any polls. I do believe the stories that say Democrats are cheating, stuffing ballots, registering all manner of people (including the invisible and the dead).

SilentWatcher on October 21, 2010 at 7:58 PM

In all seriousness, do you really think Bielat will win?

conservative pilgrim on October 21, 2010 at 7:56 PM

Yep. I think it’ll be close, but I really do. I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t. Even if the GOP wins 100 other seats. Barney needs to be in jail.

lorien1973 on October 21, 2010 at 7:59 PM

Yep. I think it’ll be close, but I really do. I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t. Even if the GOP wins 100 other seats. Barney needs to be in jail.

lorien1973 on October 21, 2010 at 7:59 PM

I sure hope Bielet wins. I admit I have little faith for this race. It would be amazingly awesome.

conservative pilgrim on October 21, 2010 at 8:07 PM

If Bielat wins that would be my last shot of the night.

Mojave Mark on October 21, 2010 at 8:07 PM

The demographics look HIGHLY suspicious to me:

1. 53% of respondents were femaile, only 47% male, but if I remember correctly, men are much more likely to vote — especially in off year elections.

2. 42% Democrat, 16% Republican???, and 40% independent???

are you kidding me? That cant be remotely realistic.

Also, Scott Brown is well liked, even by Democrats, even according to this poll. Is he out campaigning for Bielat?

American Elephant on October 21, 2010 at 8:09 PM

Don’t believe any polls from any source within 2 weeks of election day.

obladioblada on October 21, 2010 at 8:14 PM

lorien1973 on October 21, 2010 at 7:59 PM

Are you mad at him because the housing crisis hit FL especially hard or that he’s an all around dingbat?

TimTebowSavesAmerica on October 21, 2010 at 8:14 PM

Over optimism leads to over reach.

bayview on October 21, 2010 at 8:16 PM

Don’t believe the polls people…

… they are a weapon of the Left to try to keep people from voting for a “lost cause”.

Just keep hanging the economic collapse around Barney Franks neck…

… anyone who votes for him deserves the chaos to come.

Seven Percent Solution on October 21, 2010 at 8:20 PM

Are you mad at him because the housing crisis hit FL especially hard or that he’s an all around dingbat?

TimTebowSavesAmerica on October 21, 2010 at 8:14 PM

Barney is the poster child for everything wrong with government. He knew there was a problem (he now admits this), but his ideology blinded him to fixing it (he’s now admitted this); yet he still wants to continue policies that caused the mess in the first place.

It’s insane. I don’t like government intervention because I just don’t like government intervention, I don’t like it because when it doesn’t work, they cannot admit it doesn’t work and, you know, stop doing it. They simply offer a new solution that makes everything worse.

Politics is the eternal lesson of dishonesty ruling the day. Government is putting it into practice.

lorien1973 on October 21, 2010 at 8:24 PM

Astonishly stupid ad, especially at this point in the campaign. Unlike any profession I’ve known, politics is filled with “professionals” who shouldn’t be allowed near a campaign. Either Bielat isn’t paying attention, which is not a good sign, or he is paying attention, which may be a worse sign.

Bielat’s actually beating Frank among men, 45.2/42.6; among women he trails … 54.7 to 30.2.

Yes, the incredibly intelligent liberal woman showing her stuff once again.

rrpjr on October 21, 2010 at 8:31 PM

actually republicans are only 12% here inMassachusetts. having Barney dance around silly without talking about issues wont go over well with women.

who advised this campaign. i am afraid it was the candidate.

Ricki on October 21, 2010 at 8:33 PM

I was born and raised in MA-4 and been active locally and nationally for years.

Mass GOP registration is 11.6%. Dems are 38%. The 4th is liberal district. So that sample is not off.

Prior to the recession, 15% to 20% unemployment was the norm. The effective unemployment rate of the old mill cities is about one-third of the population. About one-third is Portuguese speaking. Illiteracy abounds.

Conservatives can win like Scott Brown, but it just shows how masterful Brown was and is. You cant win on just parroting Tea Party Express talking points.

Sean doing great nationally, but he is new to the district. Only been there a few years. HE should be following Brown not running from him.

This is a tougher race then people think. If Sean gets within 10 percent, it will be a miracle

swamp_yankee on October 21, 2010 at 8:38 PM

That’s quite some generalizations and stereotyping: Indict all women, because a large amount vote in male liberals. Following your logic, do you blame certain ethnic groups for our economic mess as well?

conservative pilgrim on October 21, 2010 at 7:47 PM

Are you looking for a job at NPR? Because it sure sounds like it.

I’m simply stating what has become blazingly obvious with the gender gaps in the past few elections, including this one. The average woman voter, voting for these male left-wing Democratic men, would create a permanent Democrat majority. If it weren’t for men being smarter on the average (judging by the fact that the majority of them vote for conservative candidates, while the majority of women vote for socialists), our nation would soon become a third-world nation.

Gabe on October 21, 2010 at 8:39 PM

2. 42% Democrat, 16% Republican???, and 40% independent???

are you kidding me? That cant be remotely realistic.

American Elephant on October 21, 2010 at 8:09 PM

Doesn’t look like it is accurate. They are overstating Democrats by 8% and understating independents by 10%. That doesn’t factor in Republican enthusiasm.

Polls of active voters by SurveyUSA suggest that 34% of active voters consider themselves Democrats, 16% Republican, and 50% unenrolled.

sharrukin on October 21, 2010 at 8:40 PM

lorien1973 on October 21, 2010 at 8:24 PM

Sounds like you’ve been hanging out with Allen West.

TimTebowSavesAmerica on October 21, 2010 at 8:41 PM

Some questions that need to be answered before I’d trust that poll:

1)What was the D/R breakout from exit polling during the Scott Brown election? During ’08? During ’06? How do they compare with this poll?

2)Was this poll weighted in any way to match actual voter turnout during the last election? During ’08? During ’06?

3)What was the poll methodology? How did they filter likely vs registered?

4)What was the precise wording and order of the questions? Did they lead off with Congressional preference, or did they lead off with something else?

john bono on October 21, 2010 at 8:56 PM

If it weren’t for men being smarter on the average (judging by the fact that the majority of them vote for conservative candidates, while the majority of women vote for socialists), our nation would soon become a third-world nation.

Gabe on October 21, 2010 at 8:39 PM

GTFO. Seriously. Women are leading this little movement called the Tea Party, or hadn’t you heard?

alwaysfiredup on October 21, 2010 at 9:02 PM

also bielat is prolife and that is not a good position to take here in blue mass.

Ricki on October 21, 2010 at 9:13 PM

Bielat’s actually beating Frank among men, 45.2/42.6; among women he trails … 54.7 to 30.2.

Nice going, ladies. You have brains. Analyze Frank’s role in the housing bubble and resulting financial downturn, and decide whether you should be sending Frank back to Congress to obstruct other commonsense financial reform as he has for years.

BuckeyeSam on October 21, 2010 at 9:22 PM

This race is also different because of Gov and other races. Scott Brown ran in a vacuum. Mano v. Mano. If someone didn’t know or care for Martha, they weren’t going to vote on some random Tuesday night in 30 degree weather in January.

Deval will have some coattails among the young and minority vote. AG, Treasurer, Auditor, local races like key Sheriff races will help get out some of the Dem vote that didn’t bother last January.

swamp_yankee on October 21, 2010 at 9:26 PM

Liberal guilt trip always kicks in late especially in Mass. They know their passed relatives would spin in their graves if they voted Republican. Their just not mad enough yet.

Hummer53 on October 21, 2010 at 9:47 PM

and i think perry, bielat, hudak, and golnik are all going to lose. not onr rep for congress is going to win. we have a weak line up and no bench.

Ricki on October 21, 2010 at 10:29 PM

and i think perry blah blah blah going to lose. not onr rep for congress is going to win. we have a weak line up and no bench.

Ricki on October 21, 2010 at 10:29 PM

You must be some newly activated sockpuppet. Welcome to Hot Air. It’s a tough room.

RushBaby on October 21, 2010 at 11:09 PM

Bielat’s actually beating Frank among men, 45.2/42.6

That’s nothing. Barney beats himself among men all the time.

Sorry for leaving you with that image, but the joke kinda wrote itself.

nukemhill on October 21, 2010 at 11:36 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEInZnbXHCE

“That’s your woman’s vote.”

quikstrike98 on October 22, 2010 at 12:55 AM

That ad stinks – after seeing it, I feel like my contribution to Bielat was wasted. They need to get serious.

Done That on October 22, 2010 at 5:44 AM

Both men are doing well among members of their respective parties, with Frank backed by 80 percent of Democrats and Bielat by 92 percent of Republicans.

In that area, that means Frank is ahead 85/15. What are there, ten conservatives there?

Bielat’s actually beating Frank among men, 45.2/42.6; among women he trails … 54.7 to 30.2.

Come on girls. What the hell happened to you? Are those “progressive” men not wussy enough for you?

Squiggy on October 22, 2010 at 6:43 AM

Come on girls. What the hell happened to you? Are those “progressive” men not wussy enough for you?

Barry O wouldn’t have taken the White House if we hadn’t given the girls the right to vote….

quikstrike98 on October 22, 2010 at 7:14 AM

These are people who re-elect child molesters. The surprise here?

It takes corruption to represent a corrupt people.

MNHawk on October 22, 2010 at 7:16 AM

Barney Frank could drive up and down the streets of his district wearing a Nazi uniform holding a pitchfork with aborted fetuses stuck on the end, and still get 79.9% of the Democrats in his district to vote for him. Ignorance is bliss.

olesparkie on October 22, 2010 at 7:45 AM

Damn, I donated to Bielat on Wednesday. Here’s hoping he can close the gap.

buckichick1 on October 22, 2010 at 8:54 AM

If a guy like Sean Bielat can’t beat a guy like Barney Frank, there is absolutely no hope for Massachusetts. None. Nada. Zero.

indy8 on October 22, 2010 at 9:47 AM

Turnout, turnout, turnout.

skydaddy on October 22, 2010 at 9:54 AM

No candidate spends $200K of their own cash two weeks before a blow-out: that is an insane waste of money. Even if your campaign were broke, there is nothing… literally nothing… to eat a 12 point margin. You could go out and do handshakes on street corners and that would cement the victory.

Mind you, Barney Frank isn’t the most stable of individuals when it comes to finances, but that is OTHER PEOPLE’S MONEY. On his own he is the stingy ‘give me the $1 off senior discount!!!’ guy.

So this poll doesn’t pass the sniff test.

Something is up for Barney and he doesn’t like the look of it. Why should we doubt where he puts his own money during campaign season? He doesn’t like the numbers… and these numbers show something seriously different than what he is seeing out there.

ajacksonian on October 22, 2010 at 11:15 AM

I do not believe ANY of these polls.
Get out and vote!

ORconservative on October 22, 2010 at 12:31 PM

It’s nice to think about winning there, but Massachusetts would vote for Zombie Adolf Hitler if he had a (D) next to his name.

Besides, the ad is inaccurate. Barney Frank *never* looked that good in a suit.

Merovign on October 22, 2010 at 12:32 PM

I loved the ad. It is definitely different and noticeable. It is going negative in a funny way.

Sure Barney can dance but can he sing? If so he has a future on Broadway after his stint in the house…

petunia on October 22, 2010 at 2:08 PM

At this point in time, I don’t believe any polls. I do believe the stories that say Democrats are cheating, stuffing ballots, registering all manner of people (including the invisible and the dead).

SilentWatcher on October 21, 2010 at 7:58 PM

I think the fraud runs very deep. I think here in WA they have made it absolutely legal to stuff the ballot box.

It’s all by mail. All you’d have to do is get a bunch of non-political people to register and tell them you’d help them fill out and send in the complicated ballot.

And the ballot is complicated, so much so it should be illegal. (That might bode well for Rs who are better educated) anyway. I can picture someone telling people exactly how to vote… “vote yes on that it means you hate Bush…” then get them to sign it and drop it in the mail. Do that a few thousand times and you swing an election all by yourself.

Mail in voting is the stupidest thing to come along ever.

People should have to show up with id and figure out the ballot on their own in the privacy of a booth. With watchers from both parties.

This is like allowing campaigning and arm twisting at the polling place.

petunia on October 22, 2010 at 2:16 PM

Are we moderating this thread? My last post disappeared. I don’t think I said anything bad… if so sorry.

petunia on October 22, 2010 at 2:18 PM

That congressional district can burn to the ground for all the damage they’ve done our country.

Let’s make sure the refugees are all spread out so thin they can never affect the outcome of an election again.

scotash on October 23, 2010 at 1:11 AM

This commercial is stupid awful but at a minute long, is it a web ad? If so, who cares since only hard partisans will see it. Some of these “cute” commercials aren’t cute at all. Voters aren’t in the mood for cute, they want information. That said, at this point after so much Democrat destruction, anyone actually swayed by a damn campaign ad and not by the underlying issues, is a clueless moron anyway. The ads should be more focused on what affects them personally and more positive about the candidate themselves can offer them.

Renwaa on October 23, 2010 at 4:00 AM

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