Comments on: Rasmussen: Raese back up 7 over Manchin

By: WVSEN: Rasmussen Shows Narrow Lead for Manchin over Raese

WVSEN: Rasmussen Shows Narrow Lead for Manchin over Raese — Wed, 27 Oct 2010 17:09:45 +0000

[...] Rasmussen: Raese back up 7 over Manchin (hotair.com) [...]

By: humdinger

humdinger — Thu, 21 Oct 2010 01:21:30 +0000

Jaibones, my recollection ( not checked) is that Rasmussen has stayed fairly consistent over the last few wks. The polls that have shown Manchin with a lead have been private polls – ie, I’ve never heard of them before. Guess which polls I trust more?
Still… chickens, hatch, yadayadayada.

By: Jaibones

Jaibones — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 23:57:05 +0000

Is it me, or is it safe to say we’ve never seen a Rasmussen poll with the kind of volatility we are seeing there this month. He’s all over the place.

Electorate’s don’t change like this, do they?

By: humdinger

humdinger — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 21:20:39 +0000

I still worry about Dead Men Voting in the southern part of the state. Joes’ party seems to have a corner on that market. Better lawyer-up Mr Raese!

By: Missy

Missy — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 20:51:14 +0000

Rasmussen: Raese back up 7 over Manchin

Ed, this headline is a little misleading as Rasmussen has had Raese up consistently (as you mention in the post). The Manchin surgelet, if it exists, is showing up only in other polls.

By: Wade

Wade — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 20:32:54 +0000

Be nice to have party affiliation somewhere in the article. Hard to keep tract of all the players without a scorecard.

By: SouthernGent

SouthernGent — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 19:21:13 +0000

But, but PPP says the democrats are coming home to roost!!

By: myrenovations

myrenovations — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 19:12:56 +0000

My West Virginia Democrat mother voted early. She went Republican for the House, David McKinley, but did end up voting for Manchin for Senate. If she hadn’t voted early and I had another 13 days, I think I could have gotten her to go Raese.

By: chaswv

chaswv — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 19:02:17 +0000

What was the turnout in 2006? crosspatch on October 20, 2010 at 2:38 PM

The WV SOS publishes very limited turnout stats (not by party). Less than 42% of registered voters voted in the 2006 general....

By: chaswv

chaswv — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:57:28 +0000

I still sense this race will be close. Dems do a much better job of GOTV. And there has been a seemingly significant early voting turnout here in Charleston, WV. Much higher from my vantage point than other elections. Generally, the “rooster” (local sign of the Dem Party) benefits from high turnout. But the anti-Obama sentiment around here is very heartfelt. This may just come down to the wire.

By: canopfor

canopfor — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:43:09 +0000

I think,this is a new AD!
==================================================

NRSC West Virginia IE Ad: Hunting Trip
October 20 2010

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNk63lL-ddg&feature=player_embedded#!

By: stldave

stldave — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:40:03 +0000

If you like your governor, you can keep your governor.

forest on October 20, 2010 at 2:21 PM

Made me laugh.

By: crosspatch

crosspatch — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:38:34 +0000

“That almost exactly duplicates the 2008 partisan breakdown of turnout in the presidential election”

I believe we should be comparing mid-terms to mid-terms to get the full impact of this election’s delta.

What was the turnout in 2006?

By: West Virginia Senate: Raese (R) takes biggest lead yet over Obama’s rubber stamp Joe Manchin (D) : Fire Andrea Mitchell!

Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:38:11 +0000

[...] Raese has now opened up his biggest lead yet over Obama’s rubberstamp, Democrat Joe Manchin. Raese now has a seven point lead over over Manchin according to the latest Rasmussen polling. The telephone survey of Likely West Virginia Voters [...]

By: BuckeyeSam

BuckeyeSam — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:37:59 +0000

Just a thought. Could some WV poll respondents who might be among those who’d be expected to vote Dem (union workers and the like) actually going to vote GOP once they’re in a ballot booth and not on a phone talking to who knows whom?

WV voters hate Obama, and they are certainly smart enough to figure out that a Dem senator will be used by Obama to crush coal.

By: canopfor

canopfor — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:36:37 +0000

So,Manchin might be moving out of the Mansion!!

By: strictnein

strictnein — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:32:43 +0000

Related: Kirk back up 4% in Illinois

By: Justrand

Justrand — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:30:11 +0000

EVERY Democrat Congress-Critter will vote to do whatever Obama wants. EVERY ONE.

Yes, they will be given dispensation to cast “defensive” votes…but only if the Dems have a safe margin. Otherwise EVERY Dem is gonna do Obama’s bidding!

By: ted c

ted c — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:29:05 +0000

I like Rasmussen. He seems to run a steady operation and his sampling methods appear to reflect reality–hence should be considered as valid as can be.

By: forest

forest — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:21:34 +0000

Rasmussen also says that 69% approve of the job Manchin is doing, yet he’s down

MrX on October 20, 2010 at 2:15 PM

If you like your governor, you can keep your governor.

By: swamp_yankee

swamp_yankee — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:21:23 +0000

The irony of this race is that Manchin would being doing much better if he went all in and resigned from his office.

People like down there and they are perfectly content letting him be Governor. Its like the South used to be, when they elected local Dems for state office and Pubs to Washington.

A vote for Raese isnt a vote against Manchin. Its a vote againt Obama and a vote for keeping Manchin Charlton.

Its a perfect dynamic for Raese.

By: WoosterOh

WoosterOh — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:20:43 +0000

But I was led to believe that the Dems were closing the gaps and we would get our free lunch for 6 more years.

By: MrX

MrX — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:15:05 +0000

Rasmussen also says that 69% approve of the job Manchin is doing, yet he’s down. That survey seems to think it has to do with the fact that 69% also disapprove of the job Obama is doing. Is Obama an anchor of a sinking ship (or is it a bus?) bringing everyone else down with him?

By: forest

forest — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:14:14 +0000

With leaners, Raese wins every age demographic except 18-29YOs, which he only loses by seven, 42/49.

I don’t expect this group to be beating down the doors of the polling places to go vote for Manchin.

I hope these numbers hold up.

By: The Mega Independent

The Mega Independent — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 18:10:56 +0000

This just proves how much the voters want him to be governor.